Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[TCT~Phantom]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Edelgard pre-Dixie Kong

Under 25

Arle Nadja x15
Grovyle x10
Rhythm Girl x10
Concept: CGI trailers for newcomers (barring Piranha Plant) x10
Reaper (Overwatch) x10
Boss: Kracko x10
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x10
Concept: All DLC will be first-party x10
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x10
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x10
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5
Concept: More DLC x5
9-Volt x5
Kat & Ana x5
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x5
Lora (Xenoblade) x5
Thrall x5
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x5
Decidueye x5
Blacephalon x5
Nero Claudius (Fate) x5
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped company x5
Impa x5
Creeper x3
Lizalfos x2

Newcomers for today are... *long breath* Kat & Ana, Lora, Thrall, Decidueye, Blacephalon, Nero Claudius, Impa, Creeper, and Lizalfos (5 nominations each), and the concepts: Shin Megami Tensei rep, No fan favorites, Character from unrepped third-party company (5 noms each), and All DLC will be third-party (10 noms).

Whew...

I removed the Concept: Surprise Echo Fighter, since a similar one is on the schedule.

Also, TCT~Phantom who’s Thrall? Would Google but I’m afraid all I’ll get is the Star Wars character.

Warcraft character, warchief of the horde for a while .

 

[RealPokeFan11]

GoodGrief741

This guy

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

DIXIE KONG

Well then, the time has finally arrived to rate Dixie (again). This easily used to be one of my most wanted/most likely characters back in early speculation. It still is pretty likely. But we have King K. Rool as a newcomer in this iteration of Smash, and Dixie Kong was already revealed as a spirit. I am sure that Smash's DLC team are looking elsewhere besides the Donkey Kong series to find which character to introduce, and due us only getting 5 more characters in DLC, coupled with the low amount of newcomers introduced for Ultimate, I don't believe we will be getting two unique newcomers from the same franchise (if echoes are officially gone, which they are)... However, Dixie has easily been one of the most requested characters to be implemented into Smash, so you never know... Maybe I'm being generous here...

Chance: 25%

I used to be a huge Dixie supporter, but now I'm just an average Dixie supporter. Dixie Kong easily completes the quadrifecta of Donkey Kong characters, and if she is put in the game, then I feel the Donkey Kong series' representation is full and just, and would be content if no new Donkey Kong characters were ever added. Having a prominent role in Tropical Freeze, as well as being the main character from Donkey Kong Country 3, I am unaware of anything that DISqualifies her from being totally ready for Smash. Have I said something like this before? Oh yeah, I have.

GoodGrief741 , YOU'RE ALMOST AT 1K MESSAGES! So, for this momentous occasion, what would you like to say to all the fans out there?

With that being said...

DIXIE KONG

Dixie is probably the most highly requested Donkey Kong character to date besides K. Rool, as a start, but probably what puts her in the most favor is the amount of representation she has been getting in recent games. Forget Tiny, Lanky, and Chunky Kong, Nintendo has been putting a heavy emphasis on Dixie. Being one of the 4 playable characters 5 playable characters in Tropical Freeze, she has had a complete move set reworking from the game that could translate well to Smash, with Tropical Freeze being a 2.5d platformer with attacks on enemies. Cranky, however, probably won't work, if we are looking at the last of the first 4 playable Tropical Freeze characters. His shtick of using a stick (a walking stick, I kept it close to shtick to make it sound better) and being crippled can only get him so far, and hasn't been as emphasized as a "FIGHTER!" as Dixie has. I don't know how else to describe it; she's been playable in 16 games (first appearing as a playable character in Donkey Kong Country 2 in 1994, and as the lead character in Donkey Kong Country 3 in 1996), and has made cameos in the latest 3 Smash Bros Games not including Ultimate. Cranky was the shopkeeper back in Donkey Kong Country Returns for one, and was playable for the first time in Tropical Freeze. Sure, she would probably work as an Echo, but the easier place-able Donkey Kong series Echo would probably be Funky Kong as an Echo of Donkey Kong himself. Dixie's body shape fits with Diddy's, and the Incineroar/Dry Bowser/Shadow/Dixie Kong fake leak from a couple weeks ago actually may have created more hype for Dixie! Even though it was disproven, the move set that was given to Dixie, which was identical to Diddy's (because she was placed as an Echo) except for the brand new Up-Special and Side-Jab actually was extremely believable. She would be great as an Echo. She's more popular than Funky Kong (even though Funky doesn't have nearly as much unique potential as Dixie does), and would slide in well with Diddy. But, that's where my Echo-rant stops. Dixie could very much work as a unique fighter, an adjective that Funky cannot quite achieve (except for the surfboard). Dixie's abilities in Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze say it all. Her Helicopter Twirl/Hair Whip/More unique nameless abilities can all be utilized in creating the move set for the third most prominent Kong, and could be enough to make her a brand spanking new character. All in all, I predict that Nintendo adds her as an Echo; even though Dixie has been highly requested by the fans, which would make her the type of character that would be added, based on previous additions. But still, I consider the chances that she is added as a playable fighter to be very likely. So, ultimately (get it), I rate Dixie at a...

Chance: 72.5%

We already got K. Rool. But THAT'S NOT STOPPING ME FROM WANTING A 4TH DK REP! Before this year's E3, I felt like King K. Rool and Dixie Kong would both need to be playable for SMBU to be considered complete. Now that we got K. Rool, I still am feeling that way about Dixie. She would be completing the Donkey Kong reps. The main characters of DKC 1, 2 and 3, along with the main villain in all of them are all playable? That is the finished roster that I'm hoping for. Granted it might be a bit too much to wish for too many characters, I'm hoping that Dixie is playable in some certain way, shape, or form. She is one of the few that I'm dying to have, but would immediately settle for her as an Echo if it meant that she was playable. I want her as an Echo more than I want Funky Kong as an Echo, as do most of her supporters, but what I referred to before is that Funky Kong has the body and move set that immediately screams "ECHO!". Dixie doesn't have that, for she is a coin flip away from being decided to be an Echo or not. I'd take her for either option. Moving past my rambling the score that I'll end up giving her for want would be...

Want: 82.5%

However, because we are now rating for DLC, I'm afraid I'm going to have to drop my want score slightly while raising the want scores for prominent third parties/Bandana Dee that are highly speculated for the Fighter Pass...

Want: 62.5%

It's getting to be a tough competition for the last few slots on the roster, and Dixie, even if she is strong, is now vying for her spot against others who are rising the ranks. She dropped her want score a bit, but I would be ecstatic if she made it anyway.

Nominations: Impa x4, Toon Zelda x1

I am now entering the phase where I am getting very passionate about my nominations once again. It happened with my last nomination run, so now I'm starting to hype up for Impa.

 

[Ridrool64]

Tiny's big sister, who isn't even as big as Tiny anymore.

Chance: 40%. I do believe Spirits are meant to end the chances of fighters, but even ignoring that, Dixie needs to come with a stage (this is a big hurdle for most characters from repped series) and needs to set herself apart from Diddy since she can't take the Echo route anymore. Out of the Spirits, though, I think her chances are second only to Paper Mario's.

Want: 65%. While it's not as much as before, she's still a verifiably great inclusion, and one I can easily get behind.

Predict: Bandana Dee will have 80% Chance.

Nominations: Arle Nadja x 5.

 

[RileyXY1]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 70%
She's hugely popular, is the tertiary protagonist of an A-list Nintendo franchise, and still makes regular appearances in DKC games, unlike K. Rool.

Want: 50%
She would be interesting to see, but I'm not holding my breath.

Noms: Kat & Ana x5

 

[WaddleMatt]

Dixie Kong:

Chance - 15%

Definitley one of the most popular Nintendo 1st party characters not yet represented, however with DK already getting a new character in the base game I think the DLC would cater to other series. However she is recently relevant so she has that going for her!

Want - 80%

It really does feel incomplete with out her I won't lie and she is a really fun character who could have an interesting moveset. However, I would like to see other characters before her.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Dixie Kong

Chance - 45%
She was shown as a spirit... but that's about it. The only reason she wouldn't get in is if Nintendo didn't want to add her.

Want - 65%
I like Dixie Kong a lot! More popular female characters is ALWAYS a good thing in my eyes.

BWD prediction: 72%

Nominating "fighter pack is entirely 1st party or entirely 3rd party" concept x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Dixie Kong

...5% Chance

I am not seeing it. Given what we can assume for DLC, I feel that another DK Rep is not gonna be likely. Now aside from super promotional stuff, I am not super confident in most Nintendo Characters. I lean towards third parties fro DLC. There are only a few non promotional first party characters I am confident in. We are rating one of them tomorrow.

To me, Dixie is hurt by one major thing. She is not super hype. Dixie is not something that will sell as well. DK is popular, but I feel that people will be content with K Rool at Nintendo. I feel that there are much bigger first party characters that can be chosen. There are not many, but there are a good number.

To me, first party characters have to fall into one of two camps. Do they have any promotional value? Do they have any huge popularity or demand?

For promotional value, this is a bit of a two way street. Tropical Freeze is on the Switch, and it is amazing. You have no excuse not to play it. However, it is a port. A port that came out in May. I can easily see it not being seen as a huge promotional priority. Then you have a DKCR3, but that does not exist yet. If it were to exist, then my opinion would be quite different. But as of now, I would not be confident in Dixie for promotional reasons.

The other category is fan demand. Here is where things get tricky. Is Dixie a requested character? Yes. But how requested? Is Dixie's demand enough to make a huge splash on the ballot? What about overseas? Dixie, while popular, is not super popular. She is usually around the A tier of requests. K Rool being in will make her demand grow, but she does not have the demand that K Rool had going for him.

So she has decent demand, and not much promo value. I feel that this is something that would hurt her.

100% Want

I like Donkey Kong. I like more DKC content. Give me a sick stage. Give me more music. Give me more damnit. I love K Rool, but I would like more. DKC2 is life.

Nominating Thrall x 5

 

[Smasher 101]

Abstained on the last two days because while I honestly think there will almost certainly be a promotional character, I'm not quite sure where to put Melmetal and Edelgard exactly at this point. Going to try to get back into this now.

Dixie Kong

Chance: 15%

Mistakenly found her the most likely DLC newcomer in 4...not the case this time. Dixie's only representation is as a spirit, so it could be worse, but I'm starting to feel like even that much is a no-go for DLC, especially since it's already been decided. I feel like at least in her case if she wasn't in base roster she's probably not in this time. Plus King K. Rool overshadowed her when it comes to Donkey Kong. Definitely see other franchises more likely to have priority next. She'd also most likely be a semi-clone, and I'm not sure if I can see one of those happening. All that said, she is still a reasonably popular and important character that has some recent appearances, so a lot of players are going to know her. Could see her being at least suggested just because of that, so I'm not counting her out yet. Feel like her best hope is for DLC beyond the next five though, which I'm not counting on.

Want: 100%

Currently my second most wanted newcomer and most wanted for Nintendo. I'm down for semi-clones especially if they're of characters I like playing as (and I do enjoy Diddy Kong), and beyond that Dixie is my favorite Kong and Donkey Kong is one my favorite series. Her addition would make the franchise's representation complete for me.

Abstaining from noms and prediction. I'll get back to that next day.

 

[MegaTailsFreak]

Dixie Kong

Chance - 25%
I feel like if she was going to be announced she would of been announced with King K. Rool.
She has a chance to be DLC, but I don't like her odds.

Want - 85%
DKC2 is one of my favorite SNES games.
I would happy to see her get in.

Bandanna Dee Prediction - 75%

Nominating - Grovyle X5

 

[Kotor]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 35%
Want: 65%

Well, Dixie is in a weird spot. Some think she could only get in as Diddy's echo, others believe there's more to her than just that. She'd be fine as an semiclone since Isabelle is one (Are semiclones fair game for the fighter pass?). There's also the fact that she's a spirit and the Super Smash Bros Rulebook of Assumptions™ dictates that "Any characters that are represented as anything but playable, can never be playable." Odd thing about Dixie's spirit is that it evolves to Dixie and Kiddy unless there's another Dixie spirit outside of the one that was shown to evolve. I'd like to see her in Smash, but I guess most people are contempt with K. Rool.

Kracko as a boss x5

 

[PeridotGX]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 35%. She could happen. She's one of the most popular characters left, plus they could use Diddy as a base to make development go faster. But there are still many more characters that are likelies'

Want: Abstain

Nominatons: Grovyle x5

 

[Mr Blargh]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 20% . Seeing her as a spirit in the trailer could lead to any number of possibilities towards speculation, but I'm not confident that spirits de-confirm characters from making it in as DLC. She has 5 separate chances to make it in the fighter pass and has plenty of possible songs and stages to pick from to make content for her. Depending on whether or not / when the new Donkey Kong game comes out she could be used as marketing / promotional content, but ultimately it comes down to Nintendo's choice about what characters they gave on the list for Sakurai to implement. They could be following the ballot for fan input, or they could be following their nose towards the money trail.

Want: 100% I've wanted Dixie Kong since Brawl. Plain and simple. She was my vote for the ballot with K. Rool leading as a close second. She's been one of my favorite Nintendo characters and DKC2 was my all time favorite game, especially on the SNES. There's no reason as to why she hasn't already been put in besides lack of development time where it was crucial for other characters to be in instead.

Nominations: Gen 8 Pokemon x5

 

[Nemuresu]

Dixie
Chance: 10%-Yes, I'm gonna be on the pessimistic side of things here. Nintendo is more likely to put in recent characters than classic ones if they even put characters of their own at all. I know that Dixie was in Tropical Freeze, and even then, there's no reason for Nintendo to promote that game when they have a lot more stuff coming soon.
Want: 50%-I'm very neutral about her. I'd be happy is she joined in, but I won't shed tears if she doesn't make it either.
Bandana Dee prediction: 30%
Nominations: "No Nintendo characters in Fighters Pass" concept x5

 

[DaUsername]

Dixie Kong
Chance: 35%
She's a pretty popular character and was even planned for Brawl at one point. But Nintendo might think one DK newcomer is enough.
Want: 70%
She's not at the top of my most wanted list, but I still think she deserves to be in.
Also, why do people still think she can only be an Echo Fighter? There's a lot mlre to her than just "Diddy with hair."

Dee Prediction: 58%
Noms: DLC Stages outside of Fighter Pass x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Dixie Kong
Chance: 25%
One of the more likely first parties IMO, and certainly one of the few I see befitting the 'All Star' title. She has had a game out recently so it's dependent on what Nintendo want to do with it. It's sold fairly solidly showcasing that DKC still has it's rightful place amongst Nintendo's top dog series.

The downside for Dixie is K. Rool was the big DK fan want, and from a promotional point of view you could argue Funky is a bigger deal to the Switch Port than she or Cranky were thanks to him being the only real new thing about the port.

Want: 100%
There's not many characters left that I think absolutely deserve to be in Smash Bros and have earnt their rightful place as a 'Nintendo All Star' but Dixie is one of two/three characters left I think hasn't any reason to still be kept out.
She's my personal Kong partner of choice in Tropical Freeze, and her return was the main reason I decided to buy not only Tropical Freeze but also DKC Returns in anticipation for the Wii U's release. Absolutely adore Dixie and she's currently sitting pretty at the number 3 spot on my most wanted, although I think she's a more glaring omission than everyone bar Toad at this point. After Samus she's probably the first female character I think of when I think of a Nintendo Heroine. Not Peach, not Zelda(Although both Princesses are definitely becoming more combatative recently), but Dixie Kong.

Still boggles my mind to the day that during Sm4sh when we were cramming in as many female characters as possible Dixie somehow was glossed over. A crying shame.

 

[Hollywoodrok12]

Dixie Kong:

Chance: 2%. She has been shown as a spirit, so she's pretty much deconfirmed. So that 2% is in the off chance that spirits don't deconfirm AND that they pick her to be an original fighter, which is highly unlikely, since she has a lot of the makings of a good echo fighter.
Want: 30%. I, personally, don't want Dixie, but I understand that there are many people who want her, despite the fact that I don't. With that said, I really want Shantae, and I'm worried that she'd hurt Shantae's chances even more than things already do, since they would share their hair whipping attack, thus making Shantae less unique. If that wasn't the case, Dixie would easily get a 40% or maybe even a 50% from me.

Nomination: No Fan Favorites for DLC x5 (To be specific, that means no one who is highly requested (not including troll requests) for reasons other than leaks will make it in. Meaning guys like Steve (who was a troll request prior to leaks and only became popular because of those leaks) and Katalina (who is only talked about due to leaks) don't count, whereas guys like Bandana Dee and Geno, do count).

 

[ProfPeanut]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 30%
Strictly speaking, she's the most likely Donkey Kong character to make it in, so most cases are going to put her in front of the likes of Cranky Kong or Lord Fredrik. While King K. Rool has more or less "completed" Donkey Kong's representation, the series still swings forward with a decent future ahead of it, making Dixie a good choice as a recurring playable protagonist. The changes to Diddy Kong in Ultimate and the new classification of Echo Fighters seemed to all but pave the way for her inclusion, were it not for the final Direct.

Her cons amount to Nintendo's relative ambivalence to Donkey Kong these days--more than it gives the likes of F-Zero and Earthbound, but less than the likes of Fire Emblem and Kirby. Nintendo doesn't seem to have much of a plan with her either, scarcely featuring her in Mario spin-offs and the like while Diddy Kong was absorbed fairly quickly in comparison.

There's also the fact that, as Sakurai told us, none of the paid DLCs will be echo fighters. Dixie could make it in as a non-echo, but that would make her chances much lower, since Donkey Kong doesn't hurt for a newcomer nearly as much as it used to. There's other franchises with closer upcoming sequels on the way too, making them more likely to end up on Nintendo's list than a Donkey Kong character might.

I think Dixie's best chance to get in would be if Ultimate received free echo fighters over 2019. There's no indication of or precedent for this, obviously, so it's not something that most people would bet on. But given the apparent ease that echo fighters can be made with, as well a low count of remaining echo candidates that would work as inclusions, I wouldn't say it's impossible for Sakurai to opt for such a bonus to Ultimate.


Want: 75%
Unobjectionable choice. Though, in the context of these 5 DLCs being the last remedies we can apply to Ultimate, Dixie's a little too safe of a pick, suggesting other safe picks in her wake. But there's little doubt she's the next member of the DK crew to get in.


Prediction:
Bandana Waddle Dee: 48%

Nominations:
Frisk x5

 

[KeyOh]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 20%
She still has a chance, but she seems unlikely to me. We most likely won't see a new DKC title during this DLC period so she won't be able to make it in via the promotional route. From what we know, Dixie was pretty popular on the ballot, but I don't think she would have been popular enough to be considered for DLC right now. Her main boon is that she's overall one of the most notable first party characters that has any chance whatsoever. That should be a pretty big deal, but I don't think it would be enough for Nintendo to consider her. I just personally have trouble seeing them try to sell her for some reason.
I doubt being a spirit detracts from her chances but anything is possible.

Want: 80%
She's easily one of the most glaring omissions among Smash's major first party franchises. I don't really like to say a character "deserves" a spot, but it really feels like Dixie has earned it. Her inclusion feels pretty overdue and it would be nice to see her make it in at this point. I'm not 100% on her because the number of characters is pretty limited and DK has already gotten one overdue newcomer this game.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

So a brief update.

I messed up my math for the scores. I will have them out tomorrow. As an apology, everyone will get 5 extra noms on Dees day.

Day over, Rate Rex (Xenoblade), predict Geno.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

REX

Okay, so here's the deal. Rex got his own reveal trailer as a Mii Costume, showcase and everything, similarly to how Geno got his back in the Smash 4 days. But with this aside, let's just think logically about this for a minute. Rex is available to anybody who purchases the Fighter Pass. Rex is also a playable fighter in the Fighter Pass. If anybody has a struggle processing that, that is perfectly fine. My main point is that the fact that Nintendo took the time to create a Mii Fighter outfit for a character WHILE STATING THAT his game came out too late during the development of Smash Ultimate to be considered to be a fighter just screams that he won't be DLC, either. So, I can confidently say...

Chance: 0%.

That being said, I would love to see how they could make a moveset for him work. Back in the base-game ratings, I remember a time back when Rex & Pyra had topped the board for likelihood, and weren't that far behind for want, either. That being said, I personally think of a good moveset for him that won't have any spoilers in it. I understand that at this point, with his game coming out as recent as it has, it would come off as a promotional promotion to become a fighter (both definitions of promotion). Once a game has been around for a while, than it is usually safer to incorporate small spoilers here and there. Coupled with the fact that any promotional Xenoblade 2 content runs the risk of spoiling it (for those who haven't played, spoilers for this game particular hurt), there is also the concept of Blades. The idea of Blades that use weapons as vessels and wielded by Drivers for fighting (that isn't really a spoiler, just basic combat mechanics) is a concept that is completely unique in the gaming industry (until somebody proves me wrong) and this idea being put into the shell of a Smash Bros Fighter is an obstacle Rex will need to overcome if he wants a shot at making the cut. Maybe Pyra, Mythra, or another Blade could stand in the background similarly to what Pokemon Trainer does. However, because only one Blade will most likely be utilized if this was the case (and it will most likely be Pyra), then Rex's whole moveset will have to heavily involve Pyra in some way. So yeah. There are a lot of kinks that need to be worked out to see him implemented (if he even does). I don't think it is out-of-this-world to see Rex as a fighter, and I am willing to support him if he makes the cut, and I personally want him a bit for myself...

Want: 30%

If I find the time to do Bandana Dee, I most certainly will. Until then, I am abstaining.

Nominations: Impa x8, Toon Zelda x2

 

[GoodGrief741]

So a brief update.

I messed up my math for the scores. I will have them out tomorrow. As an apology, everyone will get 5 extra noms on Dees day.

Day over, Rate Rex (Xenoblade), predict Geno.

Wait, are we rating Rex or Dee? Dee came before on the schedule.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Dixie Kong pre-???

50-25

Arle Nadja x25

Under 25

Grovyle x20
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x20
Rhythm Girl x15
Concept: CGI trailers for newcomers (barring Piranha Plant) x15
Reaper (Overwatch) x15
Boss: Kracko x15
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x15
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x15
Concept: All DLC will be first-party x10
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: More DLC x10
Kat & Ana x10
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x10
Lora (Xenoblade) x10
Thrall (Warcraft) x10
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x10
Nero Claudius (Fate) x10
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x10
Impa x9
9-Volt x5
Decidueye x5
Blacephalon x5
Professor Hector x5
Mach Rider x5
Frisk x5
Creeper x3
Lizalfos x2
Toon Zelda x1

Arle Nadja pops 25 noms. She’s the first of the new list to do so. Congrats!

Today’s newcomers are Professor Hector, Mach Rider, Frisk (5 noms each) and Toon Zelda with 1 nomination.

PokéfreakofBACON You gotta choose either all third-party or all first-party.

 

[DaUsername]

So a brief update.

I messed up my math for the scores. I will have them out tomorrow. As an apology, everyone will get 5 extra noms on Dees day.

Day over, Rate Rex (Xenoblade), predict Geno.

I thought today was supposed to be Dee's day.

But if it's not I'm gonna throw in a prediction for Rex since no-one has rated him yet.
Rex prediction: 0.1%

 

[Ridrool64]

I can't think of a snarky tagline for Rex. I never played his game.

Chance: 0%. His Mii Costume came before he did and is an outright apology for his lack of presence. That's telling, even if he's not an Assist Trophy.

Want: 10%. I have no attachment to him whatsoever, but his fans deserve a break.

Dee Prediction is the same. Geno Prediction = 65% without leaker tax, 30% overall.

-----

Kirby's very own Pikeman, or Mr. "Hat Goomba" himself

Chance: 75%. This guy isn't a Spirit = huge red flag. His actual lack of representation despite being Kirby's number 4 is ridiculous, and Kirby stages only come from the old games, meaning the new games have at least a vacant slot.

Want: 60%. Again, this is mostly for the fans, except I want a new Kirby rep more. Though I'd prefer Gooey, the latter's a spirit so I won't mind too much.

Rex Prediction is 10%.

Either way, yay! Arle's at the top of the nominations list! She has all of my noms. In other words, Arle Nadja x Max.

 

[DDRC]

So a brief update.

I messed up my math for the scores. I will have them out tomorrow. Asan apology, everyone will get 5 extra noms on Dees day.

Day over, Rate Rex (Xenoblade), predict Geno.

Rex has maybe a .5% chance of getting in if even.(mii fighter)

Want:7% i honestly dont care for xenoblade 2 but think he would make a semi interesting addition

 

[FancySmash]

Uh, I have no clue if I'm supposed to be rating Dee or Rex today. If we do rate Rex today... then everyone's prediction from yesterday is invalid. Is that what the extra five noms are for? I'll... wait until the confirmation.

 

[RileyXY1]

I'm not rating anyone until we get concrete confirmation as to who we are rating.

 

[3DSNinja]

For Rex:
Chance: 0%. Sakurai deconfirmed him in the direct, plain and simple.
Want: 50%. I would be fine with him, but I wouldn't be mad if he didn't get in.
For my boi Bandana Dee:
Chance: 75%. He is a major Kirby character created by Sakurai (He was in Super Star, gotta remember that guys!) and Kirby didn't get anything this game.
Makes sense.
Want: 100%. I love this dude, He is my main in SSF2, and I play him if he is available in a Kirby game. He is just a perfect fit for smash with his spear and parasol. So please, put him in!

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Even if Bandana Dee was placed first on the schedule, TCT~Phantom DID say that we were rating Rex at the turn of the day. So, even if he made a mistake (which happens. I get it), I say we just rate Rex for now and have Bandana Dee's day postponed until tomorrow. I cannot personally guarantee that TCT~Phantom will be here in time to realize and correct that he posted the wrong day, so I propose we just rate Rex for now. That way, there is a definitive answer to who we are rating, and nobody should postpone their rating just because they are confused. It'll be fine; I'm just trying to create more time for ratings and cut the confusion.

Actually, it's probably for the best that we just rate both today so that nobody is waiting around for conformation. Artificial double day for Bandana Dee and Rex, which means that we have 5 extra nominations per TCT~Phantom's request.

If I'm not allowed to do this, then I apologize. I mean no ill-will. I just feel like it would be the most productive for us all to rate both characters so nobody is left wondering in the dark about what is happening, and if we follow the schedule or the new-day-post.

 

[Sari]

Rex

Chance: 1%
His mii costume showcase from the last Direct essentially deconfirmed him since Sakurai basically said: “sorry he’s not in the game, hope this costume makes you feel like you’re using him!” I know that mii costumes aren’t a guaranteed deconfirmation, but If Sakurai intended for Rex to be playable at some point he would not have gone out of his way to say that. Also since Sakurai intended the mii costume to make it feel like you’re using Rex, releasing Rex himself in the exact same season pass where you obtain the mii costume would feel redundant. I can see Rex becoming the next Chrom in terms of fan demand since Sakurai is well aware that he is requested. If we ever got a S2 wave of DLC then his chances would greatly improve but for now they are incredibly low.

Want: Abstain
Never played Xenoblade 2 so I won’t comment.

-----

EDIT:

Abstaining completely on Bandana Dee since I don't know too much about him and I have to study anyway.

Geno chance predictions: 21.89%

Nominations: Kat & Ana x10

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

So a brief update.

I messed up my math for the scores. I will have them out tomorrow. As an apology, everyone will get 5 extra noms on Dees day.

Day over, Rate Rex (Xenoblade), predict Geno.

The heck? When is it Dee's day? Dee should've been rated today according to the schedule yet we're rating Rex? And we're not even rating Dee right after him? What exactly is the reasoning for postponing him?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I can’t read my own schedule.

Just do Rex and Dee tbh. Saves us the time.

I’ll also give five extra noms tomorrow to compensate for lacking a prediction for Rex.

 

[Sid-cada]

Rex

Chance - 0% - Didn't Sakurai say that Rex was an apology gift because he was made after project plans were finalized? As such, I basically view him as already disconfirmed by Sakurai.

Want - 50% - Sakurai can do whatever with Xenoblade. I don't care much for him or the series.


Oh... We're Doing both?

Bandanna Dee

Chance - 75% - I think if there is one first party who is definitively in, it's him. A suspicious lack of presence despite being quite popular in other aspects makes him stand out. A huge crowd pleaser, held back only by an uncertain direction of how DLC is handled.

Want - 100% - My most wanted newcomer. I'm a huge Kirby fan, and he's probably the most deserving one as of now.


Predictions

Geno - 24.53% - Not looking optimistic.

Nominations

Arle Nadja X5

 

[3DSNinja]

Nominations
Hollow Knight x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Tenacious D

Along with Dixie, if we get non-promotional first party picks I’m expecting to see him, but I don’t expect non-promotional first party picks. He also has a problem similar to Dixie in that there are stages for Kirby, and while Dee has it easier - there are no stages for modern Kirby - there is music for modern Kirby, which might make things difficult.

Want: 100%
A true Nintendo all-star. He has the demand, he has moveset potential. This is the kind of character I want in Smash.

Rex

Now with him I feel confident enough to give a chance score, and it’s 0%. Sakurai’s statement pretty much kills him (and everyone who came after him, imo). Even without Sakurai’s statement, the fact that his costume is DLC included with the Fighter Pass is a big tell, as they wouldn’t be so redundant to add him as a costume and a fighter. Chrom taught us that you can be many things in life, but he’d only get in as part of a wave 2 I don’t think will happen.

Want: 100%
And it’s a damn shame. I think Spring Man and Rex were the guys where we were all expecting them to be promotional and would have loved it as well. Nintendo would have actually managed to nail it with the prediction, but nope, instead they went with Incineroar, to... errr... opposite results. I hope they get a chance another day.

(Sorry for lumping Spring Man in, but he won’t get a day because he’s an AT and I just had to vent how criminal his exclusion is)

Noms: Mach Rider x10

3DSNinja Today we’re rating Rex and Bandanna Dee, Geno’s day is not up yet.

 

[RileyXY1]

Rex

Chance: 0%
He has a DLC Mii Fighter costume that was literally added as an apology for him being too new to be playable. He's not getting in.

Want: 0%
I really don't care about him.

Bandanna Dee

Chance: 40%
I don't see him as a likely pick. Sakurai has almost completely ignored modern Kirby elements.

Want: 20%
I don't care about him either.

Noms: Kat & Ana x10

 

[AustarusIV]

Rex

Double Zeroes on Chance and Want

His chances are effectively dead for SSBU (and perhaps Smash in general) as far as I'm concerned. Timing was definitely not on his side here.

Bandana Dee

Chance: 50%
It could go either way if you as me. He's fairly popular and he could bring in some new content from the later Kirby games since Kirby content is mostly derived from the games directed by Sakurai.

Want: 60%
Not a character I'm particularly interested in, but I'd be happy to see him get in for his fans' sake, since they've been at it for quite a while.

Nomination: Elma x5

 

[Ze Diglett]

Alright, then. Double day. Sure. I guess I might as well open up with my thoughts on Rex, since I really don't have much to say on him at this point:

Salvage King
Chance: 1%
His only remote chance is if there are more Fighter Passes in the future, and it's a slim chance at that. Considering Sakurai personally apologized to his fans, I'm basically considering him deconfirmed.

Want: 60%
I'm kind of conflicted here. On one hand, I love Xenoblade 2 and would die to see it represented in Smash beyond a couple Mii Costumes, but I also don't really love Rex and would take pretty much anyone else from that game in his place. (Especially Zeke; if The Zekenator ever got revealed for Smash, he'd be my new main, easy.) But if anyone was ever gonna represent Xenoblade 2, it was gonna be him, so I'd be cool with him getting in. It's not gonna happen, but I'd like to see it regardless.

Obligatory "Hat Gooba" Joke
Chance: 60%
The only character I'm expecting at this point. Bandana Dee is arguably the most major first-party pick who has no known presence in the game as is, and him surviving three separate AT purges and not even being spotted as a Spirit is pretty suspicious. (Seriously, we've seen Gryll from Kirby Star Stacker as a Spirit, but not Bandana Dee?) Kirby's also been wanting for a rep since Smash 4, and as much as some may not like it, Bandana Dee's status as Kirby's Player 4 makes him the candidate on that front. And, of course, he has massive popularity on his side as well, especially in Japan. Nintendo may be more interested in promoting their other IPs and/or striking deals with third parties, not to mention Sakurbias may still come into play yet, so I'm not gonna call him a shoo-in, but he is by far the most likely first party character for DLC, and the most likely character in general in my book.

Want: 80%
I like Bandana Dee. His design is cute, his Spear is fun to use, and he'd even come with a modern Kirby stage for once. I'd prefer Gooey, but obviously that's not gonna happen at this point, so I'm on board with Dee. Besides, more representation from one of my favorite series is always nice.

My only prediction for tomorrow is that it's gonna be a bloodbath. Brace yourselves, folks.

 

[Acemania]

Rex
Chance: 5%
The fact that there is already a mii costume for him along with Sakurai basically apologizing for him not showing up as a fighter, I feel he is already deconfirmed. However, I also believe that there could potentially be a chance for him in the future, but I sorta doubt it.

Want: 0%
I haven't played a Xenoblade game before, so I know little to nothing about him.

My Boy Bandana Dee
Chance: 80%
In my honest opinion, I feel Bandana Dee has the greatest chance out of all the 1st party characters to get in. However, if Nintendo is choosing the dlc, there is a slight chance this may not end well for the little dude.

Want: 100%
He is, without a doubt, my most wanted character. The Kirby roster just feels so incomplete without him.