Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[RealPokeFan11]

And so will Ya Boi Xurkitree

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

What will Ma Boi Xurkitree do?

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Get nominated

 

[Sari]

I just don't know why Sari would continue to nominate Kyo...

I nominated him again so he can hold the #1 spot since he has a lot of competition behind him. I was going to shift my votes to someone else new anyway (most likely to Kat & Ana).

 

[DaUsername]

Female Link
Chance: 0.01%
She's a spin-off exclusive Zelda character, that's all that needs to be said.
But seriously, if we were to get a Zelda character, I'm sure it would be one of ths many mainline characters we don't have instead of another Link.
Want: N/A

Louie prediction: 10%
Noms: Any Minecraft representation x5

 

[Mogisthelioma]

I'd like Linkle to be in but honestly she has like a 1% chance. At least it's not 0.

 

[Jomosensual]

Linkle

Chance: 0: A lot of reasons why she won't be in the base roster. Fairly new still from what I understand and there being 3 Links already are the main ones. I think she would be a solid choice for smash 6, but right now she's better for DLC than base roster

Want: 50: Like I said above, would be great for smash 6 when Young Link likely gets cut. Haven't played the game she's from yet and not a huge LoZ player anyhow so I don't have much attachment.

Noms:
Joker x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Linkle
0% Chance

Honestly Hyrule Warriors is not gonna get an OC In The game. Maybe when we see Linkle in a future mainline Zelda game I will consider it. Competition is fierce, and she is not super popular for smash. Maybe after Skull Kid and Midna get in she might have some degree of a Chance.

70% want

She is cute. Honestly out of HW characters, I liked Wizzo, Valga, and her. They all feel like they fit the series. Screw Lana tho.

Nominating Sora x 5

Day over it’s tine for the king of bugs.

 

[Sari]

Huey Louie and the News

Chance: 20%
Alph was planned to be an Olimar clone in SSB4 so it goes to show Sakurai had ideas for replicating Olimar's moveset at some point. Similarly, Chrom was planned to be in SSB4 and eventually made it to Ultimate after being scrapped. I'm not sure if cloning Olimar is at the top of Sakurai's priorities though, since in Chrom's case he was way more requested.

Want: 5%
Olimar is easily my least played character across all of the Smash games. Having another version of his moveset isn't exactly at the top of my wishlist.

Nominations:
Kyo Kusanagi x2
Kat & Ana x3

 

[Koopaul]

Louie
Chance: 1%
If Alph, the most likely clone of Olimar, is still stuck as a costume then Louie's chances are dirt.

Want: 1%
I'd feel terrible for Alph if Louie got in. The guy got a bad deal. Ultimate seems to be the game of upgraded roles. Chrom went from a Final Smash to his own character, Dark Samus went from being an AT to her own character, and Ridley went from being a boss to finally being a playable character. This was Alph's chance and he blew it.

Nominations:
Barbara x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

A DUMB ECHO OF THE WORST CHARACTER IN THE GAME
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Olimar is my least favorite character to play in the entire game, barely beating out Mr. Game and Watch. He's terrible, can't fend for himself without his Pikmin, and he got heavily nerfed in Smash 4. Having a pointless echo character of an already terrible character, is completely unnecessary, especially when the roster is tight. Louie was also barely requested during the ballot. You already know how I feel about echo characters, so I will stop talking now.

Predicions: Rick Coo & Kine 1%

Nominations: Xurkitree x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Dolt
Chance: 2%
If Alph couldn't get upgraded to echo status then I don't see it happening for Louie either. Alph could've had the excuse getting upgrated with rock Pikmin, but that didn't happen. Rock Pikmin would make way more sense for Alph than Louie anyway, so I can't Louie using them as an reason. Besides that, Olimar just isn't that popular of a Smash character so I see a echo for him being low priority. The most demand I've seen for Louie as well comes from /v/ but all that support could possibly only come from a handful of anons and I've noticed they kinda dissapeared after the Smash direct.

Want: 30%
I like the Pikmin series so I'd be fine with him. Despite that, I very rarely play as Olimar, so I doubt I'd magnetize to Louie as well.

The Prince x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Linkle pre-Louie

Kyo Kusanagi x210
Balloon Fighter x192
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x190
Dovahkiin x190
Papyrus x185
Tsubasa Oribe x160
Concept: All-Star Versus x158

200 - 151

Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x151

150 - 101

Item: Beast Ball x150
Edelgard x150
Black Knight as a boss character x150
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x145
Susie Haltmann x139
Barbara the Bat x132
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x132
Stage: Poke Floats x130
2B x126
Sans as a boss character x122
Guzma (Pokémon) x120
Daroach x120
Merric (Fire Emblem) x120
Zeraora (Pokemon) x118
Klonoa x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Gooey x113
Slime x111
Raiden (Metal Gear) x110
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x108
The Prince (Katamari) x105
Concept: Character alternate costume DLC x105
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Concept: Cross series Echoes x100
Rhythm Girl x100
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Saki Amamiya x95
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Silvally x86
Chorus Kids x77
Yu Narakumi x76
Frank West x75
Veronica x73
Concept: Historical Character x70
Concept: Any Minecraft representation x69
9-Volt x68
Item: Breidablik x65
Toon Zelda x65
Earthworm Jim x64
[Rerate] Steve? x63
Endou Mamoru x62
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Leo (Fire Emblem) x55
Joker (Persona) x54
Concept: Wars Characters x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x51

50 - 25

Concept: DLC character pass x50
[Rerate] Sora x50
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x45
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x44
Quote x43
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
Stage: Melemele Island x40
Adeleine x39
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Box Theory x34
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Master Chief x25
Kat & Ana x25

Under 25

Blog Theory x24
Concept: Unique puzzle game rep x22
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Stage: Yoshi’s Crafted World x20
[Rerate] Gengar x20
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x15
Big Boss x15
[Rerate] Excitebiker x11
[Rerate] Porky Minch x11
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
Bub & Bob x10
Conker x10
Concept: Danganronpa music x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
Stage Builder x8
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Stage: SR388 x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octoling x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
Concept: Assist Trophy DLC x5
[Rerate] Black Shadow x5
Doshin the Giant x5
Stage: Mute City Melee x5
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x5
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x5
Bartz Klauser x5
Stage: Tetris x5
Elite Beat Agents x5
Erdrick x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x4
Stanley the Bugman x3
[Rerate] Ninten x3
Creeper x3
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Assist Trophy: Creeper x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1
Birdo x1
Goomba x1

The Prince and Alternate costume DLC roll over 100 nominations.

Joker steals 50 noms (and your heart).

Kat & Ana cut through 25 nominations.

 

[Dee Dude]

Louie: The “Space Bunny” Culprit

Chance: 20% There’s not much you or even Sakurai do with a Pikmin newcomer without it being an Olimar clone/alt if it’s a Captain or adding some generic enemy since Pikmin isn’t exactly known for its...”diverse” cast.
Of course, Louie can happen if Sakurai feels like there’s interest in adding the (arguably) Luigi of Pikmin as a last minute Echo or even semi clone (which might be a waste tho).

Want: 50/50% Sure, why not? I kinda always had this weird interest in wanting Louie in Smash after Olimar was confirmed for Brawl, just give him unique animations, replace certain Pikmin with Rock Pikmin and Bulbmin, add Charlie/Brittany/President alts and I’ll be happy.

Nominations:

Slippy Toad x1
Peppy Hare x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Louie

Chance: 0. Feel like if Alph can't get in despite just needing to get a moveset developed then we aren't getting any new Pikmin newcomers. His path is also blocked quite a bit by other more requested Echos and new fighters

Want: 0. Never really played any Pikmin games before. In Brawl or 4 I would be more open to him, but with the limited spots remaning I'll pass

Noms
Joker x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Louie Chance: 35%. They seem to be saving the position of Olimar echo for him instead of Alph, but Olimar is unlikely to get an Echo.

Want: 80%. For putting us through Pikmin 2 and giving us trouble for 3, his karma is coming in what happens during Smash. Also more Pikmin reps is good in my book.

Nominations: Unique Puzzle Game Rep x 5.

Skipped Linkle by accident, but she’s somebody I couldn’t make heads or tails of.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Abstaining. I don't exactly care either way if he gets in our not, even if it is unlikely. Still am not going to give a rating though.

Nominations: Quote x5

 

[Deleted member]

Abstaining on Louie.


Noms:
Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Louie Louie

Chance: 10%
He will only make it as an Echo. Alph is the ideal Echo, but he got shafted, though that was likely due to just being ported assets from 4. Louie could still make it, although a bug based moveset might present issues for an Echo and Rock Pikmin make more sense for Brittany or Charlie.

It’s curious how specific the difficulties for a Olimar echo are.

Want: 100%
**** yeah, I hate this prick. But he’s also kind of nice and funny.

Rick Coo Kine prediction: 0.5%

Nominations: SakiX5

 

[TheCJBrine]

Louie the Bugman:

Chance: 5% - I don't see this happening, and I'm only giving it a chance because it could happen, but I just don't see it happening. As someone else said, if Alph is just a costume swap, Louie being his own character is very unlikely.

Want: 100% - Whether we get Louie, the President, Alph separated from Olimar, the Plasm Wraith, or all/some of them, I'd love to see more Pikmin characters as playable. I just don't see it happening, no matter how obvious Louie or Alph as an echo or clone/semi-clone seems.

Nominations:

Steve? x3
Gengar x2

 

[Tew]

Louie:

Chance: 5%
Pros:
Nintendo character, could work as an Echo and a semi clone, Pikmin could get a new game Maybe someday? There is still some hope for a Pikmin 4, at least more hope than for a new F-Zero game.
Cons:
Pikmin isn´t really the biggest Franchise Nintendo has, in sale numbers it´s even smaller than Splatoon, Fire Emblem and even Pretty equal to F-Zero. If Olimar gets an Echo (or if Pikmin gets a new rep at all), Alph would make more sense than Louie and yet he is stuck as an Alt.

I think his best chances are, if Alph stays an Echo, we get DLC, Pikmin 4 Releases soon after Smash Ultimate with a Focus on Louie, but I don´t think that´s very likely.

Want: 1%
Not a fan of the Pikmin series and I don´t like his design at all. Also Olimar is probably the Character I like to Play the least, so I am not really eager to get an Olimar Echo or Clone.
____________________________________________________________________


Nomination:
Slime: 5x
____________________________________________________________________

 

[WaddleMatt]

Louie:

Chance - 0%

If Alph didn't happen I have no hope in Louie. Also it appears echoes are based on popular characters and I doubt anyone was asking for Louie.

Want - 0%

I don't know what he would do or why? If anything, I would much prefer Alph as an echo.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Louie want: 0%

Why not just make him an Olimar alt? Why not add the different kind of pikmin to Olimar's pikmin? I don't get why they warrant an entirely new moveset.

Nominations:

Merric x5

 

[FancySmash]

Louie

Chance: 5%
If DLC is a thing, and we get a pack of echo characters, I could easily see Louie being one of said echos to fill up the pack. That said, it won't happen for base roster, and it's not even guaranteed for DLC. Especially when Alph got the shaft yet again, he really should've been upgraded to echo with Dark Pit and Lucina.

Want: 75%
I like Pikmin, so yeah, I'd be pretty down with it. I did knock off a few points because part of me does feel bad for Alph. Other than that, it'd be a nice way to get Rock Pikmin into Smash. Sadly, I can't see Bulbmin or Mushroom Pikmin being added. Ah well, as much as I like Pikmin, it is a quite niche franchise.

Also, random question. From reading most people's replies, I get the feeling no one plays Olimar. Am I the only one who does?

 

[PeridotGX]

Louie

Chance: 10%. It's possible the reason Alph's still an alt is because another Olimar echo is in the works. Probably not happening though, Pikmin is very niche. Maybe as DLC t promote Pikmin 4?

Want: abstain. I haven't played Pikmin and Olimar is a very forgettable character to me.

Nominations: CSE x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Louie

Chance - 1% - Echo potential is about all that he has going for him. Even then, Pikmin doesn't have massive demand for a character. Alph couldn't, so why him?

Want - 30% - I would prefer one of Pikmin's creatures to get in over a captain. While some have suggested that Louie could do that, doing so cheapens the wildlife, so to speak.


Nominations

Slime X5

 

[Opossum]

Abstaining from Louie.

Merric x5

 

[aarchak]

Louie

Chance: 5%
Maybe. He's probably not a high priority, and add on to that the other logical choice to be Olimar's echo () is an alternate costume. I think he has a low but still possible chance to ascend.
Want: 20%
Ehh, I don't care either way. I'd be fine with him in, but I don't care if he isn't in the game at all.

Nominations
Character alternate costume DLC x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Forgot to finish my Linkle rating last night, 0.5% chance/10% want

Louie

Chance: 1%

In my opinion the only possible Pikmin newcomer since Alph is still a costume. Not saying much because Alph being promoted to an echo fighter would have been the best shot of a new Pikmin fighter. Otherwise there's not much demand for Louie or a Pikmin newcomer in general, and the franchise is pretty niche. There's too many other characters that would be picked first.

Want: 50%

I don't play Olimar but I wouldn't actually mind a second character? I'm weird. Louie's not a bad choice at all for the slot. Though I wanted Alph promoted to his own character first because I actually really don't like that he's merely a costume.

Nominations: Saki x5

 

[NintenRob]

Louie
Chance 4%
It's possible but unlikely, I just think Pikmin echo would go to Alph if anyone. and honestly I just don't he'd be a priority for echoes in general
Want 10%
Not a bad idea, just not a very interesting one, Pikmin characters don't seem that expressive so it would harder to differentiate his personality from the others.

Nominate Daroach x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

The other Pikmin captain. No, the other one.

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

But Alph...

So here’s the thing about Pikmin: it’s a pretty niche series, and the main thing about it is the Pikmin themselves, not necessarily the dude ordering them around. We can talk all day about how Alph should be an echo rather than just a costume, but we could have the same discussions about the Koopalings (weirdly nobody ever does...)

I still think that the Koopalings are a good model for a way to rep several characters where the secondary elements (gimmick, if you will) of the character are more important than the characters themselves. BJ’s kit is all about the Klown Kar, so it’s not that important who’s actually in it. Same way Olimar’s is more dependant on the Pikmin rather than himself.

I’d like to see Olimar basically be a BJ with all of his alts being different captains: Alph, Louie, Charlie, Brittany, etc. Yes, each could have their own personality, but it wouldn’t be inappropriate to have them all share a kit.

I’ve actually gotten on the echo train, as long as I like the character and the moveset. For Louie as an Olimar echo...I’ve never played Pikmin and I don’t play Olimar, so I don’t need more given to that series.

Nom: DLC costumes x5

 

[SupriceSupplies]

Louie sinner of gluttony

Chance: 5%, including DLC (being generous)
Alph was planned to be a clone in 4 using rock pikmin, but became a costume instead. Alph is still a costume, much to my dismay. (Seriously Sakurai if you're not going to at the very least have him use the Drake as a skin for the Hocotate ship this time around I'll be mad. You made Dark Pit a clone for his Final Smash so what gives REEEEEE). Anyway, I don't think they're going to give that role to one of the Pikmin captains that didn't debute in 3. That being said, Pikmin 4 is supposedly still in development. But we still don't know jack about it. Sakurai may or may not know something about it.
The thing is...

Spoiler: Pikmin 2 and 3 spoilers

Pikmin 3's 100% ending left on a small cliffhanger regarding the initial crash's cause. And on top of that, Louie is still on the pikmin planet, as he was left behind just like during the halfway point of Pikmin 2. I don't know much about the story in Hey! Pikmin, but I don't recall hearing that Louie's got much of a role in it. I feel like it's safe to say Louie's going to have a vital role in Pikmin 4, potentially as its main villain, whenever it may come out. Sakurai could potentially know about it, and give Louie a role as a playable character.

Want: 75%
I'd feel... bittersweet about it. Louie's logs in the Piklopedia were really entertaining, and he's been a prominent character plot-wise, but, if we're assuming that he'll use Rock Pikmin, I would've much prefered it if that Louie became the alt costume to Olimar and that Alph got the role of (semi-)echo with a Britanny alt. That being said, more Pikmin is always fine in my book.

 

[skylanders fan]

Louie
chance
I think Pikimin has enough representation in Smash already with Olimar (and alph) and alph not even being a clone in Smash 4 makes me think Louie is also unlikely. Not to mention I have seen ton of people asking for Chrom and Dark Samus but not one for Louie
5%

want
I am all for echos but I am not a big fan of him or the franchise. But while I am not against his inclusion I also am honestly not caring what happens with him.
50%

nominating Earthworm jim x5

predicting rick coo and kine 7%

 

[Kotor]

Louie

Chance: 10%
Want: 50%

With Alph stuck in alt-hell, that just leaves Louie with no real competition. I only see him getting in as either an echo or semi if enough differences can be made between him and Olimar. I doubt he'd come in with a moveset based around bugs like him on top of those small dweevils from Pikmin 2. Pikmin 2 is my favorite game in the series. I have over 350 days in my Pikmin 2 file so I wouldn't be too opposed to seeing Louie in Smash.

Black Knight as a boss character x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Louie
Chance: 1% - If Alph couldn’t make it, he won’t either. Alph already had a model that they could work with, as well as the hypothetical use of rock pikmin to distinguish him from Olimar.
Want: 0% - Louie just plain annoys me. The implications of his role in the endgame of Pikmin 2 made no sense, and his role in Pikmin 3 just made him into a clownish food obsessed obstacle. Only thing I found interesting about him was his piklopedia entries on how to cook the wildlife.

Nominations: Edelgard x5

 

[Artix]

Abstaining on Louie.

Nominations:
Melemele Island Stage x5

 

[Pacack]

Louie

Chance: .5%
Extremely unlikely since Alph didn't make the cut. If any Olimar clone were to be added, Alph makes the most sense, and he's already disconfirmed.

Want: 20%
He's okay, I guess.

Nominations: x5 Historical Character

 

[ProfPeanut]

Louie

Chance: 10%
The Luigi of the Pikmin franchise has less of a chance than third-party candidates and obscure one-shots? For shame, RTC. Then again, Alph does have a better resume than Louie does, only to end up an alternate costume.

Still, this is the age of echo characters, and Louie's technically been on the wishlists longer than Alph has. While I'm not trying to say he has a reasonable shot of getting in now, he's certainly not as impossible as he would have been before.

Want: 50%
Pikmin is overlooked a lot by both the community and Sakurai, despite being Nintendo's only notable new franchise post-2000 for the longest time. Alph would be the better choice for an echo, admittedly, but I'd take any good effort to represent Pikmin more.


Prediction:
Rick, Coo & Kine: 0.5%

Nominations:
Sans (boss) x5

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Abstaining on Louie.

Nominations:
Stage: Melemele Island x5

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Louie:
Chance: 30%
Want: 100%
Not only is he the best triplet out of the three, his DuckTales appearance gives him plenty of moveset potential to work with AND does away with the whole "They look too similar" argument (Although a Dewey Echo Fighter isn't out of the question)

Chance: 1%
I'm not so sure if we're getting that many new Echo Fighters for Louie to gain priority over the likes of Shadow, Ken, Impa, Ms. Pac-Man, Medusa etc

Want: 50%
I don't play Pikmin or do I play as Olimar in Smash but Louie would be very nifty

Historical character x5