Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[RealPokeFan11]

HEIHACHI
Chance: 15%
Want: Abstain

He has a small chance but we already have Ryu. He fills in that fighting game character slot. I don't know much or really care about him either.

LLOYD IRVING
Chance: Abstain
Want: Abstain

Same as above. Except I know nothing about Lloyd. If he gets in, Okay :/

Predictions: Bandana Dee: 90%
Magolor: 5%

Nominations: Xurkitree x5

 

[Mario123311]

Lloyd Irving

Still standing by my previous thoughts on Lloyd. I am sadly expecting him but I REALLY don't want him. I'm especially sick of it's series and It's pretty evident Namco is just going to keep milking Tales more and more and shoving it down my throat. Unless I see a true Pac-Man World sequel/remake or a new game for Klonoa, I very much have a good reason to be salty.

Chance: 75%
Want: 0%

Heihachi

Heihachi? I guess I'd be slightly more okay with. Used to be unsure about him considering we have Ryu but I'll honestly take him over another generic JRPG swordman with goku-like hair. (And to a lesser extent an obnoxious personality)

Chance: 20%
Want: Indifferent

 

[Sari]

Since we did Direct predictions last week will tomorrow's RTC be for just our new Direct predictions, or the new Direct predictions + Bandana Dee/Magolor?

 

[BluePikmin11]

Gave my thoughts on Lloyd a while ago, what I said back July still applies today:

Lloyd is one of the most requested newcomers I have seen during my time speculating pre-Smash 4. He easily has the moveset potential and popularity to get in as a potential new third party, but him getting in depends on two certain factors:

1. Whether Sakurai can get Heihachi's Tekken movement mechanics properly implemented into Smash gameplay.
2. Whether Sakurai perceives the Tales Of franchise as globally popular.

I have my personal doubts that Sakurai will be able to find a solution to making Tekken mechanics work as smoothly and accurately as Ryu's command inputs and combos in Smash. With Heihachi possibly off the table, it leaves room for the Tales series to get playable representation, being the third best selling franchise, beating other Namco properties like Soul Calibur and Ace Combat. Although, one question remains, will Sakurai perceive the Tales Of franchise as globally popular? Aside from Tales of Symphonia being the only notable title that gained worldwide popularity, the rest of its titles are niche with the West. Sakurai might just see the franchise as exclusively popular in Japan, in a similar way that Dragon Quest, Yo-kai Watch, & Monster Hunter were very popular only in Japan at the time of project planning. Tales of does not have the same amount of consistent global success as other franchises like Kingdom Hearts, Resident Evil, and Professor Layton for me to really see Lloyd happening, but who knows? One successful title might be enough for Sakurai to approve of Lloyd's inclusion.

As for Heihachi, I almost expect him to be in. Tekken is Namco Bandai's #1 selling franchise, even beating Pac-Man. I personally believe that Sakurai will add some of the biggest Japanese third-parties that are world-wide popular, Tekken being one of those successful franchises. Honestly Heihachi getting in depends on Sakurai's will as a developer to make him work while also smoothly implementing Tekken mechanics in the game. I still have no clue how it can work given my lack of experience of Tekken to truly understand how to translate those complicated mechanics to Smash, but if Sakurai is willing to find gameplay solutions for newcomers like Ridley, perhaps he can finally make Heihachi work for Ultimate this time around.

He is one of the most likely newcomers that I am not currently predicting, but it is all up to Sakurai to accomplish a new gameplay feat. I have some faith that it could happen, given how Sakurai has evolved as a developer, being able to make Ryu's SF mechanics work in Smash, perhaps Heihachi will be the next newcomer he will accomplish in transition from developing Smash 4 DLC to Ultimate's project plan. If Heihachi gets in, I will never doubt Sakurai as a developer and moveset designer ever again.

--------

x5 Hanafuda character

 

[Tew]

Heihachi:

Chances: 5%
A weird one. I didn´t really see or hear anything about him until this codename leak, which ended up being more than wrong.
Pros:
After Ryu it´s hard to tell who is the second most iconic fighting game character not already in Smash or Street Fighter, but it could be Heihachi. Tekken is definitely a huge and well-known series and he is more or less the face of it. Also he got a Mii costume.
Cons:
Likely barely any votes on the Ballot, not too popular in the Smash fandom, doesn´t add anything new to the roster/no special or interesting moves. I just don´t think he has what it needs to be a third-party character in Smash. Especially this time there are so many other potential third-party characters that just fit better, are more requested and simply have a higher chance imo.

Want: 1%
I am already not the biggest fan of classic fighting games, but Tekken is probably the biggest one that bores me the most. Furthermore, I don´t like his design and can´t imagine him being an interesting and fun to play fighter in Smash.



Lloyd Irving:

Chances: 8%
Interesting that Lloyd is seemingly by far the most beloved “Tales …” character in the Smash Fandom, even though he is about 9-10th in the actual Japanese “Tales …” fandom. Yuri Lowell seems to be the most popular in Japan.
https://kotaku.com/tales-fans-vote-for-their-favorite-characters-and-more-1584649278
http://www.siliconera.com/2017/06/04/tales-festival-2017-character-popularity-poll-results/
Cons:
Yet I see neither of them make it in Smash, at least not based on popularity. Looking at multiple fanvotes I never see them appear, but tons of other third party characters in the top spots, like Banjo, Shadow, Geno, Rayman, Crash, Shantae, Sora, Doomguy, Phoenix Wright, Ken, even characters like Arle Nadja, Wonder Red, Jibanyan, Slime, Monster Hunter, Travis Touchdown appear more often.
Tales isn´t even close to the most popular RPG series in Japan. In a big poll about the favourite games from the Japanese (http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Famitsu_Japan's_100_favorite_video_games), the best ranked Tales game was at #44, with 9 Final Fantasy games and 9 Dragon Quest games infront of it. So there should be at least a DQ fighter before a Tales fighter.
Pros:
He is a bit popular and got a Mii costume. I only think he is a bit more likely than Heihachi, because he fits more into Smash and could be more special, even though he uses a sword.

Want: 3%
Not really interested in him at all. But compared to Heihachi I imagine him at least a bit more fun to play if he would make it in.


Predictions:
Bandana Dee: 59%
Magolor: 11%

Nominations:
Fjorm: 5x

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Heihachi
Chance: 50%
Tekken is one of the few big Japanese franchises left without a character. Probably the likeliest Bamco newcomer right now. He was considered for Sm4sh and although Sakurai at the time couldn't make him work I wouldn't say he's impossible if Sakurai made frikkin Ridley work, despite previous attempts failing to do so.

Want: 40%
Not really for the character, I've never played Tekken but rather for his voice actor, that is if they're still alowed to use voice clips from a deceased actor. (RIP old man Joseph J.)

Abstaining on Lloyd

Dee: 53.47%
Magolor: 7.91%

Punch Out newcomer x5

 

[Nemuresu]

Heihachi Mishima:
Chance: 40%-Basically giving that score because of the uncertainty on whether Unsho Ishizuka's passing has an effect on him appearing in the game or not. If it doesn't, I'd say he's one of the most likely guests left at this point, because of Tekken's overall popularity as a franchise and because Smash already acknowledges it; but if it does have an effect, chances are he won't be in at all.

Also, I doubt moveset is an issue to include him. We've seen far more than enough times that Sakurai can get a character to work if he's motivated to get around it. And for anyone who thinks he'd play the same as Ryu, please actually try Tekken, or at least Street Fighter X Tekken (yeah, that game), they don't play any similar at all.

Want: 100%-Definitely became my most requested character for this game once Ridley got it. I'd love to see a 3D fighter faring around a more simplistic game like Smash

Lloyd Irving:
Chance: 60%-He was a lot more popular than Heihachi as far as Smash goes, being one of the few requested characters to get a Mii costume in Sm4sh, surely there's a chance Sakurai may include him a playable character.
Want: 1%-I barely know him from playing Smash Flash 2. He doesn't look that interesting to me anyways.

 

[SupriceSupplies]

Heihachi:
Chance: 5%
Want: Abstain

Lloyd:
Chance: 5%
Want: Abstain

I'm of the opinion we'll be getting only one more new third party character in the base roster (not counting echoes), and I feel like Geno and Rayman already make up 80%, and Banjo and Kazooie take up another 10%. I'm giving the last 10% to both namco characters, as I don't particularly feel like there's any other third party that isn't an echo that has a shot. I'd consider Heihachi's and Lloyd's chances about equal, but we definitely aren't getting both. We already know that Heihachi was considered for smash 4, and Lloyd is definitely still possible methinks.
I don't consider having Mii costumes to be necessarily a boost, as characters such as Ashley and Knuckles got costumes but still got the AT treatment.
As of late, Heihachi's definitely gotten more traction than Lloyd. Which surprises me, as I usually saw Lloyd as the prime Namco candidate other than Pac-Man during Smash 4 speculation. Although now both are also skating on thin ice when it comes to ballot support, I feel.

I don't care too much about either, personally. Don't have any experience with their games. Still, Tales of Symphonia is on my radar and I'd like to visit it at some point. (Not so much Tekken. I suck at traditional fighting games.)

EDIT: As for DLC, I can still see either happening with a bigger shot.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Sorry for taking so long, I was asleep when the day ended.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Geno/Banjo & Kazooie pre-Heihachi/Lloyd Irving

Jin Kazama x380
Ninten x363
Terry Bogard x352
Reinhardt Gets a Trophy x310
Django (Boktai) x300
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x300
Gardevoir x300

Over 200

Rowlet x275
Concept: Hanafuda Character x262
Nathan Drake x250
Concept: Disconfirmed Characters as DLC x246
Thwomp x226
Linkle x225
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x222
Ray (Custom Robo) x217

200 - 151

No More Stages x196
Amaterasu x191
Balloon Fighter x190
DeMille x188
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x185
Papyrus x180
Louie x165
Tsubasa Oribe x160
Rick/Coo/Kine x164
Concept: All-Star Versus x158
Concept: Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode x156
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155

150 - 101

Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150
Fjorm (Fire Emblem) x150
Item: Beast Ball x142
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x140
Barbara the Bat x132
Stage: Poke Floats x130
2B x126
Klonoa x117
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Dovahkiin x110
Reimu Hakurei x110
Zeraora (Pokemon) x106
Raiden (Metal Gear) x105
Edelgard x105
Guzma (Pokémon) x105
Susie Haltmann x104
Daroach x102
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Gooey x100
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Frank West x75
Veronica x73
Chorus Kids x72
Yu Narakumi x71
9-Volt x67
Item: Breidablik x65
Black Knight as a boss character x65
Toon Zelda x64
Silvally x63
Endou Mamoru x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Slime x58
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Concept: Wars Characters x53

50 - 25

Takumi (Fire Emblem) x50
Rhythm Girl x50
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Hilda (The Legend of Zelda) x40
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
Earthworm Jim x39
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Adeleine x34
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x29
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Sans as a boss character x25
Master Chief x25

Under 25

Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x20
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Leo (Fire Emblem) x20
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x20
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
Kat & Ana x15
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x15
Concept: DLC character pass x15
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
Big Boss x10
Concept: Cross series Echoes x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
[Rerate] Excitebiker x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Concept: SR388 Stage x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octolings x5
[Rerate] Gengar x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Joker (Persona) x5
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
[Rerate] Shantae x5
Concept: Assist Trophy DLC x5
[Rerate] Black Shadow x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x4
Stage Builder x3
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1
Birdo x1
Quote x1

Jin Kazama rushes past Ninten and becomes the top nominee (a sad moment for me, but a victory for all the people who nominated him these past days). Phoenix Wright and Gardevoir reach 300 noms, so all of the top seven is now past the 300 mark.

Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode jumps over 150 noms.

Guzma cracks 100 nominations.

Master Chief finishes the fight (of getting over 25 noms)

New nominees include rerates of Shantae and Black Shadow, Assist Trophy DLC (5 noms each), the return of Stage Builder (3 noms), Birdo and Quote (1 nom each)

Barbasol It’s 5 nominations per day, so only 5 were counted.

Sari Nominations will be locked down the day before the fixed schedule ends. Assuming tomorrow will be exclusively for Direct predictions and reactions, that should be upon the start of September 16th.

 

[MSmariosonic]

All right.

Here we go.

First of...
I do expect to see a new Namco rep in the base roster or at least in the first batch of downloadable content. Why do I think that? Well Namco is developing smash yet again and to me it seems Sakurai would want a second Namco franchise to be appear in the game with a playable character. Tales of and Tekken are both globally recognizable franchises that both (in my opinion) deserve representation in Super Smash Bros Ultimate. The emphasis on the amount of famous gaming franchises represented in Smash after the 'Everyone is Here' part of the E3 direct really makes me think we'll see at least one of the two represented.

Heihachi Mishima
Chance: 40%
Want: 100%

Heihachi being considered in Smash 4 puts him ahead of most 3rd party characters when it comes to their chances. Him being put aside in favor of Pac-Man would make sense since the Pac is easily more recognizable as a whole, not only to Namco but gaming as a whole. Heihachi's moveset being too hard to translate from Tekken is also easy to understand since Tekken is a 3D fighting game unlike Street Fighter. Heihachi obviously didn't rank high in the ballot unsurprisingly. Looking at the newcomers we've gotten so far make his chances pretty slim.

Many people think he'd play similar to Ryu but as someone who's familiar with both franchises I know how far that is from the truth. Street Fighter is way different from Tekken and likewise are Heihachi and Ryu different from each other not only when looking at the playstyles but also their character as a whole. Sure they might both wear a karate gi and walk around barefoot, but they are both different in the end. Having two fighting games represented in the biggest gaming crossover in the history of gaming shouldn't even be that big of a deal.

I can see how the Tekken mechanics might be implemented into Smash but since i'm not a game developer there might be some flaws in my ideas. Tekken uses 4 attack buttons, each button for a limb. Smash only uses 2 buttons of which one is reserved for specials only. Perhaps Heihachi could have his rajin stance which might allow him to do more normals in that stance? Or maybe a button will allow one to toggle between his punches and kicks? Or perhaps tilting the stick will allow for different moves akin to Lil' Mac's forward smash? They might even add a rage mechanic like in Tekken 7 where if Heihachi would have like around 150% damage he gained access to his rage art. All just ideas of mine. I'm sure sakurai would give Heihachi a gimmick that will make him appeal to the general audience.


Lloyd Irving
Chance: 60%
Want: 75%

I have never played a Tales game in my life and my first time hearing of Lloyd was through the Smash Flash game. However I know the status of Tales of being one of Namco's biggest franchises and I really would like to see Lloyd in the game. Him playing higher than Heihachi in the ballot is pretty obvious so I can see Sakurai choosing him over Heihachi as the Namco rep since the roster so far seems to pull mostly from the ballot.


In the end I expect Lloyd to make a playable appearance in the game and perhaps Tekken as maybe an assist trophy or just general trophies.

Best case scenario for me would be if both of them make a playable appearance to partially celebrate Namco's presence in the gaming industry.

 

[DaUsername]

Double abstain.
BWD prediction: 60%
Magolor prediction: 6%
Noms: Nathan Drake x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

I don’t think either of these characters will make it in the base game. DLC sure, but I can’t see them having enough ballot pull to make it and I don’t think we’ll get more third party franchises in base. There’s also the factor of whether Lloyd is iconic enough to merit being in Smash; he certainly is with a certain audience...

I love both their games, and would be happy to see them playable.

Nominations NintenX5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Heihachi

Chance: 35%
Want: 50%

He was considered for 4's Base Game giving him a decent shot. He only a got mii costume because of his consideration and he only came to people's minds in June where by that time most of the ballot votes are accounted for. That said though I he would be cool but by far my most preferred Tekken character is King.

Lloyd

Chance: 60%
Want: 100%

He's a real sleeper character that would once again like the last two games, shake up the roster predictions with everyone predicting nearly the same thing. Lloyd by far is easily the most requested character from Namco behind Pac-Man. Tales of Symphonia's director worked on SSB4 back then and the Tales Producer Makoto Yoshizumi said he would love a Tales character in Smash and said the director would agree.

http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/news/31264/tales-characters-could-appear-in-super-smash-bros

He got a DLC mii costume 4 released alongside Chrom and King K. Rool which means he must done well in the ballot in which Ultimate is overall fan service theme.

He's by far my most wanted newcomer in Smash right now.

Concept: More Than 5 Unique Newcomers x5

 

[Brindor]

Heihachi
Chance: 40%
He's up as far 2nd Namco Reps go
Want: 0%
Don't much about Tekken but I'd rather have Kazuya over him

Lloyd
Abstain

Noms
Master Hand Playable x10

 

[Fire Tactician]

Heihatchi

Chance: 10%
Want: 1%

I don't really want or like him. I think that his design just doesn't look good alongside the other Smash characters. He's scratching 1% because I did enjoy PSASBR a little bit and I liked his bear in that, but I don't want him. I understand why it would make sense for him to be in the game, but I don't think that he's got much priority when it comes to 3rd party reps for Nintendo fans, explaining the technically possible, but decently unlikely 10%.

Lloyd

Chance: 5%
Want: 90%

I don't know him personally, but I really enjoy using swordsmen and think that I'd probably enjoy playing him. I liked the little that I dabbled with him in SSF2, so I'd love to see more of him. However, just like Heihatchi, I don't think he's top priority when it comes to 3rd party reps, especially since he's not as mainstream as all the other ones that we have gotten already. I'd love to use him, but I don't think he's happening.

-----
x5 Nominations for Reinhardt Gets a Trophy

 

[VexTheHex]

Lloyd
Chance 30%
He has decent popularity and got the Kirby costume. But I don't know if he has THAT much fan pull. I feel people have been quieter on him than in the past, but maybe he'll get in cause he was talked about more during the ballot phase than now?
Want 45%
I think he could be interesting overall, but I'm in the boat of worrying about too many generic looking sword people. The cartoon plumbers, star critters, pocket monsters, robot man, monkey people, princesses, etc. are more exciting than adding more swordsmen that looks wise are very interchangeable with each other.

Heihachi
Chance 30%
He was considered before so there's that. But he also lacks much fan pull.
Want 0%
Not a fan of his design. I don't think he'll bring much to the roster to be honest. I feel Ryu already has it covered.

Noms 5x Gardevoir

I'm also tired of so many characters who have no recognizable headgear so Kirby has to go to the spiky-anime-hair wig store all the time (Why did his Zelda one lose the wimple! We all recognized it, and it was better than another wig!).

Kirby is now head canon'd as Roger from American Dad for me now.

 

[ShinyRegice]

Lloyd and Heihatchi chances: 4% for both
With Simon coming and Geno's seemingly plausible addition this time, there's the possibility of Namco being the only third-party company with a playable character to only have one, but I'm personally not convinced as it seems more like searching for a pattern than a convincing hypothesis. It's not impossible Sakurai wanted fair treatment by making sure each company has two characters, but I wouldn't count on it.

A more convincing argument for the inclusion of either might be representation for modern Namco in contrast to everything Pac-Man comes with which comes from the arcade area. Again I give fairly low chances to any character from a currently unrepresented series due to the stage thing, but still leave room for error in that regard and analyse characters otherwise anyway. Both characters got a Mii costume as Smash 4 DLC and while Tekken is the most iconic series, Lloyd had historically been more requested as a Smash fighter. Sakurai also commented on Heihatchi's moveset being fairly difficult to incorporate in Smash, although we all know what happened with Ridley... If he thinks about it a bit more I guess he could add Heihatchi in a way that's satisfying.

Asides from them, we could also get a Soul Calibur character as an alternative "modern Namco rep", so that dilutes the chances of these two characters a bit more.

Both want: 10%
Not really interested, I don't know their series very much and they don't particularly look exciting to me. Nightmare from Soul Calibur sounds a little better, but is nowhere near my most wanted either. That said I see the interest of a modern Namco rep as a niche.

Nominating:
New item: Beast Ball x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Heihachi want: 0%

The only distinctive thing about his design is his silly hair. His moveset would make him just another brawler.

Lloyd want: 0% (7-10*)

Using two sword is cool, and if one is red and the other blue, as in SSF2, that looks cool, too. That said, he's not the only character who could use two swords (or even two swords and projectiles). The rest of his character design doesn't appeal much to me, either.

Nominations:

FE Spear User x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Chancehachi: 74.5%

They couldn't bring the moveset over for the last game. It depends on if they decide to try harder or not.

Wanthachi: 10%

I'd rather have Jin Kazama, though both would have an incredibly boring moveset.

Chance Irving: 37%

His game is popular and good, but somehow, he's still too left field.

Want Irving: 30%

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Heihachi Mishima
Chance: 7% - He's been confirmed to have been seriously considered for Smash, but unlike Ice Climbers, hardware limitations weren't the problem; utilizing the way Tekken works in his moveset was the problem. It's definitely possible the madman could've figured it out, but I don't know.
Want: 0% - I really couldn't care less for Tekken.

Lloyd Irving
Chance: 10% - He got a Mii costume, which likely means he scored pretty well on the ballot (or Sakurai likes him). And I sincerely doubt Namco, who are helping with development, will go without a second character when every other currently represented third party company is getting several.
Want: 35% - Not a big fan of Tales, but he's pretty fun in SSF2 so I'd welcome him.

Nominations
Frank West x5

 

[Cabbagehead]

Heihachi

Chance: 20%
Want: Abstain

Heihachi certainly has the Mii Costume and Sakurai consideration going in his favor. The fact that Bandai-Namco has their foot in the door helps, as well. However, we don't know if Sakurai ever successfully found a way to implement Heihachi's moveset. Also, as an Ashley fan, I can say with utmost confidence that Mii Costumes are by no means an end-all of consideration. For characters like Geno and K. Rool, a Mii Costume shows that Sakurai is aware they exist, which is a good thing. For a character as prominent as Heihachi, it doesn't mean quite as much. So sure, it could happen, but considering his downfall last go-around and the fact that Ultimate's newcomer implementation is far more competitive, I have my doubts, to say the least.


Lloyd

Chance: 10%
Want: Abstain

Lloyd has a Mii Costume. And ever since I joined Smashboards, I have seen a sizable amount of support for the character, so it's not like there's absolutely nothing in his favor. However, being a Bandai-Namco character, I would argue that he has Heihachi to contend with; if a Namco character gets in, all signs would point to it being Heihachi.

I'm going to abstain from sharing my personal opinion for either character because I have no attachment to them and, as a general rule, I don't care for third-parties in Smash Bros. (with a few exceptions).

 

[Erureido]

Abstaining from Lloyd Irving.

Heihachi Mishima

Chance: 20%

If anyone will represent Tekken in Smash, Heihachi is the most likely possibility, followed by Jin and Kazuya. Heihachi is the face of Tekken, a major gaming icon in the fighting game genre, and he even got a Mii Costume in Smash 4. Sakurai even considered him for Smash 4 at one point.

The main issue holding him back is that it'd be hard to implement the elements that make Tekken unique from other fighters into Smash. In fact, Sakurai has even said it was tough for him to implement Heihachi because of said moveset issue. While Sakurai has changed his mind on which characters had moveset issues (i.e. Pac-Man and Ridley) and thus the same could be applied to Heihachi, we don't know if he has for Smash Ultimate.

Want: 5%

Heihachi is a cool man and all, but he's not my first choice for a Tekken rep. That title goes to my boy Jin Kazama.

------

Predictions

Bandana Dee (Kirby): 80.14%

Still a popular choice, but there's always that Sakurai bias to worry about.

Magolor (Kirby): 16.71%

Another rather popular Kirby character (but nowhere near as popular as Bandana Dee is when it comes to Smash), but he too has to worry about that Sakurai bias.

------

Nominations

Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney): x5

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Lloyd

Chance: 20%
He seems to be a bit more popular than other Namco characters. However, I don't think he has quite enough demand to get him in. I'm expecting him to be an AT, if anything, this round.

Want: 20%
I'm not very familiar with him or his games, so there's not real attachment here. Being an RPG protagonist with swords isn't going to be enough to wow me.

-----

Heihachi

Chance: 20%
He was considered for Smash 4 and Namco is working on the game again, but he was ultimately rejected for some reason and I doubt it'll come to pass for this game. Tekken is still pretty big so he at least has some notoriety.

-----
Want: 0%
I'm fine with Tekken and all, but he's really kinda boring. The only thing about him that I find interesting is him being an old man beating up on the whippersnappers. But there are other elder characters like Cranky that can amuse me with that more.

 

[Ridrool64]

Lloyd and Heihachi both get a 15% from me. I don't think Sakurai cares about a third party per company limit, but I also don't think he cares about equality that much, and no matter what I think Pac-Man's going to ride solo again until DLC. Lloyd's want is 70%, Heihachi's is 5%.

 

[a smart guy]

Hm... It's hard to say on these characters.
Lloyd:
Chance: 10% Yes, I've seen him mentioned, but his time in the spotlight ran out. He was really popular back in the Brawl days, with some carrying into Smash 4. I think the Mii costume did a nice job acknowledging that.
Want: 10% Not a character I'm looking forward to, and I don't know anyone who would be thrilled by their inclusion.

Heihachi:
Chance: 20% Unlike Lloyd, Heihachi's Mii costume came out of nowhere. It's obvious that Bandai Namco had something to do with it. It is their most popular series after all. However, I don't see any demand in the West for him, which is a big negative in a fan service game. In addition, it's hard to come up with a unique moveset for him.
Want: 5% Not someone I want. Ryu is iconic for fighting game characters, but Heihachi, not so much.

Nominations: No More Stages x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Heihachi Mishima

Chance - 20% - Probably one of the biggest chances Namco has for a second representative. Probably the face of the 3D fighter, he has one of the bigger claims to joining than most. Still, he faces internal completion for something we aren't even certain exits yet. Considering it might just be seen as retreading old ground due to Ryu, it might be possible to just give him the pass in favor of other characters. Still, he's got a decent shot.

Want - 35% - I dislike Ryu in Smash Bros. It feels like he's breaking the rules of the game in order to make him interesting, and is needlessly complicated for the sake of complication. I feel Heihachi is going to be the same.


Lloyd Irving

Chance - 5% - I just don't feel like he's famous enough. Compared to many third parties, he's too much of a nobody to get much traction. He has some demand, but never quite enough. I don't think he has what it takes, unless Sakurai really takes a shine to him.

Want - 40% - There are worse third parties, but he could be interesting-ish. I just would prefer others over him getting in.


No predictions because Direct Tomorrow.


Nominations

Reimu Hakurei X5

 

[Crap-Zapper]

Heihachi Mishima;
Chance: 35%

Heihachi has been in the talks before, but Sakurai having some trouble translating his 3D moves into 2D in a functional way made it difficult to advance on him for Smash 4 Wii u/3DS. However Sakurai have gone back on his decisions on multiple occasions. Tekken is an iconic franchise. Heihachi is known to do crossovers so the rights would not be that hard to achieve, and with Ryu being in the game, the rivalry between 2D and 3D fighting games would be ideal once more. However, he is not as much popular as other characters, and as we do not know how many characters are left, I'd think either for DLC or just a slim chance for base roster.

Want: 75%

Heihachi is not just one of my favourite Tekken characters, but one of my favourite video game fighters of all time. He is the original badass fighter, and would be the first "old guy" to the series of Smash. I feel like he is fairly recognizable, and would make a great choice for Smash Ultimate.


Abstain on Lloyd.


Doshin the Giant x 5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

GoodGrief741 , I am now realizing that on your nominations list, there is Stage Builder twice on the nomination list. During the Geno/Banjo rate, I nominated [Concept]: Stage Builder/Editor Returns and thought it would be considered a new nomination, but then I saw [Concept]: Break the Targets/Board the Platforms Stage Builder. I personally believe that both of these nominations should be combined into one, general idea. The first nomination of [Concept]: Break the Targets/Board the Platforms Stage Builder, albeit specific, can be discussed at the same time as a general Stage Builder. Just say "I'd also like to see a Target Breaking mode" or something like that... Up to you. I'd like to see them combined though

I ALSO DID SOME RESEARCH AND HAVE ENOUGH INFO TO RATE HEIHACHI FOR WANT

I did most of my discussion in my previous post and don't feel like copy and pasting it, but despite me saying that I was originally abstaining from rating for want, I realized that, despite his chances being higher than Lloyd's, I actually want him LESS. So, for that reason along with those listed in my OP...

Want: 12.5%

Sorry for the hassle

 

[Smasher 101]

Namco newcomers

Heihachi chance: 30%
Lloyd chance: 20%

I can see a new Namco character happening honestly. I'm not confident on it - everything I find more likely than not has now been rated - and in the end and I'm not predicting it, but it's among the things I'm 50/50 on. Several companies already have two franchises represented and both of these choices would make sense. If there is a second I think it's between these two for sure. I am leaning towards Heihachi, personally, mainly because we know he was considered last time, and he's a big enough name where it could be worth trying again. Tekken is also a bigger series overall. That said, Tales is a pretty notable series too, and I would say Lloyd is the most well known character. I also feel like I've seen more Smash demand for Lloyd than for any Tekken character, so I could see that being enough. I also think that if neither makes the base roster then it's likely one will be DLC. I dunno, I just feel like Namco's going get another one in before it's all over.

Want for both: 50%

That all being said, I'm completely indifferent in both cases. They're solid third party choices for sure, and they could be fun, but I'm just not attached to either character.

Nominations: Gardevoir x5

 

[THE TemporaryFool]

Heihachi.
Chance: 12% while he was one of the characters to get a mii costume, not all of those characters became playable. The newcomers are as a result of the ballot anyway.
Want: 1% i have no experience with tekken

Lloyd Irving: 30% mii costume also, if any other Namco character arrives it may be him. As he has more of a fan outcry than Heihachi.
Want: 30% no real experience, but he looks cool

 

[GoodGrief741]

GoodGrief741 , I am now realizing that on your nominations list, there is Stage Builder twice on the nomination list. During the Geno/Banjo rate, I nominated [Concept]: Stage Builder/Editor Returns and thought it would be considered a new nomination, but then I saw [Concept]: Break the Targets/Board the Platforms Stage Builder. I personally believe that both of these nominations should be combined into one, general idea. The first nomination of [Concept]: Break the Targets/Board the Platforms Stage Builder, albeit specific, can be discussed at the same time as a general Stage Builder. Just say "I'd also like to see a Target Breaking mode" or something like that... Up to you. I'd like to see them combined though

I don’t think they should be fused, as they’re different ideas at their core. One is for the return of a feature that already exists, while the other is for a completely new one that also requires the return of Board the Platforms and Break the Targets. They would likely carry completely different chance ratings.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Heihachi
Chance: 25% - Face of Tekken, and one of the more iconic fighting game characters. If we’re getting a second Namco rep, it’ll be him.
Want: 40%

Lloyd Irving
Chance: 8% - I honestly get the feeling that Smash fans tend to overestimate his importance due to him being part of the increasingly rare example of a successful third-party Nintendo exclusive title (something we Nintendo fans are becoming increasingly starved for). The nearly 15 year old Tales of Symphonia was admittedly quite a big success at the time and has gained a loyal cult following. Unfortunately, he’s mostly only had minor roles since then with even Symphonia’s spinoff “dawn of a new world” focusing mainly on a new protagonist. His Mii costume is admittedly the biggest thing in his favour as it shows Sakurai’s acknowledges the character’s popularity among Nintendo fans. That being said, many more popular Mii costume characters have already been deconfirmed. I believe Lloyd’s best chance of becoming playable will be as a DLC character.
Want: 20%

Nominations: Edelgard x5

 

[Lupin Red]

Heihachi

Chance: 10%
If we are getting a second Namco character, it's definitely going to be someone from Tekken since the game is highly successful and is still relevant. As to who, Heihachi might be the best choice since he had a Mii costume back in Smash 4 and is pretty iconic character in the series, but I'm not sure if he has some support from the Ballot. Plus, I think Sakurai still have some difficulties implementing his Tekken movesets into Smash, so I don't think he has a chance to get in the base roster. His only chance of getting in is through DLC, but even then, it's still a small chance if Sakurai still couldn't translate his moveset into Smash.

Want: 10%
I like Heihachi and all, but I'm indifferent to him. There are other third party characters that I want to get in Smash first before Heihachi.

Lloyd Irving

Chance: 25%
Another Namco character that is most likely to get in Smash due to having a Mii Costume in Smash 4. Unlike Heihachi, Lloyd has some support from the Ballot, thus I rate him more than him in chances. However, I don't think he's gonna make it into the base roster since the roster slots are limited and the fact that he has one competition from the series: Yuri Lowell. The reason I see Yuri getting in more than Lloyd is because he's more iconic than him (especially in Japan) and Tales of Vesperia: Definitive Edition is coming to the Nintendo Switch next year, so there's a chance that Sakurai might pick him over Lloyd to represent the Tales series, at least when DLC comes around.

Want: Abstain
I really don't know much about Lloyd since I haven't played any of his games yet.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

I don’t think they should be fused, as they’re different ideas at their core. One is for the return of a feature that already exists, while the other is for a completely new one that also requires the return of Board the Platforms and Break the Targets. They would likely carry completely different chance ratings.

Fair, fair. Would you say that [Concept]: Stage Builder/Editor Returns is considered a [Concept] though? It isn't a fighter, it's an idea

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Just a quick question, can you do another 5 nominations if the day gets extended?

 

[warpenguin55]

Heihatchi
Chance: 55%
He got a Mii costume so he's atleast on Sakurai's radar. Being from a fighting game helps his chances as well

Want: 20%
Never played Tekken so I don't have any experience with the character. But, I'm never against a rep from a fighting game getting in

Lloyd Irving
Chance: 40%
He got a Mii costume so I'll give him a bump up. I don't know much about Lloyd so I'll leave it at that

Nominations:
Silvally x3
Zeraora x2

 

[DaUsername]

Just a quick question, can you do another 5 nominations if the day gets extended?

No.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Fair, fair. Would you say that [Concept]: Stage Builder/Editor Returns is considered a [Concept] though? It isn't a fighter, it's an idea

Yeah, it’s a concept alright.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

No.

Ok thanks

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day was not really extended, I just was going to do direct predictions and reactions.

Abstain from everything myself by Lloyd gets a 100% Want. TOS is a gem. Honestly one of the best GameCube games and one of the best tales games (vesperia is really cool too). Pick it up it honestly is awesome and I would love Lloyd to be in.

Direct predictions and reactions. Satisfaction tomorrow.