Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[letsgetsmashing]

Geno

Chance: 60% - I don't think Geno is as likely as a lot of the fanbase thinks he is. Cloud making it into the game was a miracle, but it seems Square-Enix are not easy to work with. I mean Final Fantasy only has two songs in this iteration of Super Smash Bros, while Castlevania has over 30 I believe. This game is devoted to fan service, which to me, makes the next candidate after this more likely. But the thing is, Geno hasn't been kept out of Smash due to relevancy. He's been kept out because Sakurai said negotiating with Square was hard. With his Mii fighter costume getting in, I think his chances are a bit higher. I'm not expecting him, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he made it in.

Want: 60% - The idea of Geno in Smash has grown on me considerably since the ballot days. While I would still take Paper Mario or Captain Toad over him, I will admit that he's a really cool character from Super Mario RPG, which is an incredible game. While I won't freak out over his inclusion for myself, I will for all of his fans. Yeah, he only appeared in one game, but despite me not being particularly fond of him, he's kind of a part of the Smash family that has been neglected for so long. I can sympathize with him and his fans, because I have dealt with my own favorites being gave the short end of the stick, like Captain Toad, Dixie Kong, and Isaac.

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 80 - To me he seems to be the most likely 3rd party. I think it's safe to assume that in Smash Ultimate, we will get at least one more non Nintendo owned character. To me, this bear and bird duo has the most going for it. For one, they rose to popularity during the ballot days, and likely scored significantly high on it. Secondly, they fall into the category of characters who have been requested for a very long time. Thirdly, Microsoft has said they are willing to work with Nintendo. And lastly, this new game seems to be aimed right at classic video game characters with King K. Rool, Ridley, and Simon Belmont. No one fits that bill better than Banjo & Kazooie. I can't see a clear reason why they wouldn't get in, because Microsoft & Nintendo are, well, basically friends at this point.

Want: 100% - I'm WAYYYYY bias because Banjo & Kazooie was the first ever game I played, when I was 3. When I was a kid, it wasn't Mario & Link. It wasn't Mario & Kirby. It wasn't Mario & Pikachu or Samus or Fox or Yoshi or Luigi. It was Mario & Banjo. Because Super Mario 64 and Banjo-Kazooie were the two games, and only two games, we had for the N64 for about 4 years. So, lets just say I've spend a lot of time with these characters. Seeing them in Smash would be the perfect family reunion, because in my eyes, and the eyes of many Nintendo fans, Banjo will always be a Nintendo character. No matter what.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Sakurai isn't including the protagonist of a western third party FPS with next to 0 traction in Japanese fandom or culture at large.

I know you're banking on a "surprise" character for this game, but Chief ain't it. This scenario of "he would ignore the ballot and go for Chief" is making me think a lot of "he would ignore K. Rool and go for Dixie," or the hypothetical that he would add Ryu or Monster Hunter to base Smash 4 over Mega Man.

If Sakurai is going to Microsoft to get a character, I fully believe it's Banjo. You might think this is narrowminded but intentionally avoiding the popular and logical choice is also not really seeing the forest for the trees. The "Bomberman got AT'd but Simon got added" comparison doesn't really make sense because we have data suggesting Bomberman and Simon performed similarly on the ballot together. We don't have that for Banjo and Chief.

I am not banking on Chief because he is not in my predictions, but I do think he has a real shot.

The argument of "he would ignore the ballot for Chief" is narrow-minded because it only and primarily accounts popularity and not the other reasons that Sakurai could have potentially critically thought about when deciding each newcomer. If you have links to polls that show close performances of Bomberman and Simon, I would love to see it. The Bomberman support I saw during the ballot times was much louder and more frequent than Simon in my time researching in social media, gaming sites, and Smashboards for me to speculate that he had a better performance in ballot rankings.

 

[StormC]

I am not banking on it because he is not in my predictions, but I do think Chief has a real shot.

The argument of "he would ignore the ballot for Chief" is narrow-minded because it only and primarily accounts popularity and not the other reasons that Sakurai could have potentially critically thought about when deciding each newcomer. If you have links to polls that show close performances of Bomberman and Simon, I would love to see it. The Bomberman support I saw during the ballot times was much louder and more frequent than Simon in my time researching in social media, gaming sites, and Smashboards.

Simon Belmont beat Bomberman by 257 votes on the Reddit poll.

On SSB4 Dojo's compilation poll, Simon beat Bomberman by over 100 votes.

The thing with Master Chief is there is nothing in his favor. He's just a character who is recognizable to gamers. There are dozens of those not in Smash that nobody is talking about. Even Steve I'll humor a bit more due to Minecraft's obscene popularity and the relationship with Nintendo. Master Chief? He might as well be Lara Croft or Kratos. He's a well-known gaming mascot... and that's pretty much it. Even Cloud had more support historically than Chief.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Simon Belmont beat Bomberman by 257 votes on the Reddit poll.

On SSB4 Dojo's compilation poll, Simon beat Bomberman by over 100 votes.

Thanks for the source. Still, I do not see two polls as enough to convince me that Simon had bigger popularity.

The thing with Master Chief is there is nothing in his favor. He's just a character who is recognizable to gamers. There are dozens of those not in Smash that nobody is talking about. Even Steve I'll humor a bit more due to Minecraft's obscene popularity and the relationship with Nintendo. Master Chief? He might as well be Lara Croft or Kratos. He's a well-known gaming mascot... and that's pretty much it. Even Cloud had more support historically than Chief.

Nothing in his favor? Ignoring the huge pros iconic status he holds, the moveset potential, and franchise's gaming history that Master Chief has that could easily convince Sakurai to add him over Banjo with the only "con" of him not being associated with Nintendo, should Sakurai take the opportunity to get a character from Microsoft, I highly highly doubt there is nothing in his favor. No offense, but you are severely downplaying Chief's pros with your current approach on speculation my man.

 

[StormC]

Thanks for the source. Still, I do not see two polls as enough to convince me that Simon had bigger popularity.


Nothing in his favor? Ignoring the huge pros iconic status he holds, the moveset potential, and franchise's gaming history that Master Chief has that could easily convince Sakurai to add him over Banjo with the only "con" of him not being associated with Nintendo, should Sakurai take the opportunity to get a character from Microsoft, I highly highly doubt there is nothing in his favor. No offense, but you are severely downplaying Chief's pros with your current approach on speculation my man.

The chart is a combination of multiple internet polls, with a sample size of over 40k. It's the biggest sample size that currently exists for western fan polls. I'm not even arguing Simon was more popular, but that they were comparable.

Also, everything you just typed applies to so many other series, is my point. So why would Sakurai pick Master Chief specifically in a roster with "not too many new challengers?" What would speak to him about the character? Banjo wouldn't even be in the talks if he didn't have overwhelming ballot support.

And again, I think you are underplaying the very reality that Master Chief is a non-entity to Japanese gamers. They actually like Minecraft!

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Oh boy oh boy oh boy, I made a Smashboards account JUST to get into the action of RTC. I have to admit, I'm a bit overwhelmed, and would have rather had some different characters to rate, but SO BE IT. Let's just get rating.

*Ahem, so who's first...*

GENO

Well, the case with Geno is a tricky one... Square-Enix finally allowed Nintendo to borrow Cloud as a character for Super Smash Bros for the Wii U / 3DS, which, for one thing, thank you Square. And, as most people do, I'll even site Sakurai saying that he personally would love to include Geno into the roster of Smash, which has been noted time and time again. HOWEVER, even with his slick design, I feel like Geno's time to make it into Smash has come and gone. He had a one-off game back in 1996, even earlier than the very first installment of Smash Bros. Sure, he's popular, and his supporting fanbase is very loyal, but I feel like his relevancy is the one thing holding him back from making it into Smash. Still though, Sakurai can do really whatever he wants (within reason) inside his own game, so Geno is a bit of a toss-up anyway. Throughout all of this though, I hate to break it to all of you, but Geno earns a score of...

Chance: 27.5%

I personally have never played the Super Mario RPG, but I have heard really good things about the game. His design looks pretty nice, (could still use a graphical update), but I feel like when it comes to the characters that I REALLY would like to see included, Geno kind of falls... to the middle of the pack. He isn't really a gaming icon, and there are plenty of better character picks that I could throw into the ring in front of him. My want of him is mediocre at best. Sadly, this places Geno at a score of...

Want: 22.5%

BANJO & KAZOOIE

Banjo & Kazooie have been a duo that has long been requested for admittance into Smash. They have topped the charts on popularity, and (being ignorant on Rare's relationship with Nintendo and their willingness to let their copyrighted characters be borrowed by outside companies) feel like this may be one of the few third party characters that we will see be included into this iteration of Smash. I don't know all that much about the chances of us seeing certain third party characters, for you can never be sure with Nintendo, but I feel like it is a safe bet to give Banjo & Kazooie a...

Chance: 55%

This, here, is a character that I can personally get behind. Maybe I hadn't played the Legend of the Seven Stars, but I have personally played Banjo Tooie, and it was (as far as I can remember) a really fun game to play. The support behind Banjo & Kazooie is also phenomenal as I have seen, and feel like they would make a great duo character that could be included into the game. I strongly support their inclusion, and personally believe that they are a character that may very well translate nicely to Smash if they were to be included. With some bias, I give Banjo & Kazooie a strong...

Want: 67.5%

Looking back, this probably wasn't the strongest argument for the inclusion of characters, but hey.

Oh yeah, the noms. Hope you all don't mind if I just make 3 new unvisited nominations...

Birdo x1
Quote (Cave Story) x1
[Concept] Stage Builder/Editor Returns x3

 

[BluePikmin11]

Also, everything you just typed applies to so many other series, is my point. So why would Sakurai pick Master Chief specifically in a roster with "not too many new challengers?" What would speak to him about the character? Banjo wouldn't even be in the talks if he didn't have overwhelming ballot support.

It would apply to a number of other series like Tomb Raider, Skyrim, Call of Duty, Fallout, if those series were from Microsoft. We are talking about the specific scenario that Sakurai gets a Microsoft character, in which there would only be three options to consider. If we're speaking more about moveset potential, Chief easily beats Banjo by miles with the number of distinct weapons with different properties/effects he can use such as the Spartan Laser, Energy Sword, Plasma Pistol, and a large number of other weapons in Halo that gives him as much equal moveset potential as Inkling with the numerous weapons in Splatoon, FAR more than Banjo could provide for Sakurai to see Chief as the more attractive option.

And again, I think you are underplaying the very reality that Master Chief is a non-entity to Japanese gamers. They actually like Minecraft!

I am well aware of his lack of presence in Japan, but I think the pros Chief has is enough to make up for that particular con.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Thanks for the source. Still, I do not see two polls as enough to convince me that Simon had bigger popularity.


Nothing in his favor? Ignoring the huge pros iconic status he holds, the moveset potential, and franchise's gaming history that Master Chief has that could easily convince Sakurai to add him over Banjo with the only "con" of him not being associated with Nintendo, should Sakurai take the opportunity to get a character from Microsoft, I highly highly doubt there is nothing in his favor. No offense, but you are severely downplaying Chief's pros with your current approach on speculation my man.

Banjo also holds iconic status, also has moveset potential, and his franchise is also a huge part of gaming history, and he lacks the con of not being associated with Nintendo, and he has been highly demanded. There is no reason why Chief would be picked over Banjo.

We are talking about the specific scenario that Sakurai gets a Microsoft character, in which there would only be three options to consider.

Why would we assume that Sakurai would go to Microsoft to ask for any rep they want to give? It seems likelier to me that he would go ask for a specific character. I can’t imagine Sakurai thinking in terms of ‘company reps’ like we do.

 

[Speculator]

I already addressed my perspective on Geno several times already, but I have a new perspective for Banjo & Kazooie.

As of now, people are optimistic about Banjo & Kazooie more than ever before, ever since K. Rool was revealed, who further helped the notion that the ballot would be used for selecting newcomers. It seems most consider Banjo to have a real shot, but something about the popularized idea bothers me, especially when no one else considers the other possibilities. Yeah, there is Banjo's ballot popularity that could benefit the chances of B&K to be considered, but I do not think he would be the only one seriously considered. If Sakurai had the chance to add Microsoft characters in Smash during the project plan, would he just take this chance and go with Banjo without hesitation due to ballot popularity? I do not personally think so.

There are other attractive newcomer options that Sakurai could have taken with this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, newcomers from franchises that are far bigger than Banjo himself. There is Steve from Minecraft, whose game is currently the #2 best selling video game of all time. There is also the defacto Microsoft mascot, Master Chief from Halo. Between the three options, in a Smash game where Sakurai is currently building a roster full of gigantic gaming icons like Cloud, Snake, Sonic, Pac-Man, Mega Man, I feel that Sakurai would take the opportunity to add Master Chief and/or Steve over Banjo Kazooie, both of which would have far more shock value and hype (At the least, Chief specifically on both aspects) than the bear. Even as someone that generally does not see Western third parties happening, it just does not come across as natural to me that Banjo would be chosen over Microsoft's biggest mascots.

To me, Vergeben listing rumors of Minecraft content present in Ultimate benefits Steve and Chief more than Banjo. Even though Banjo is more popular in the ballot than those two choices, the bear could end up being an Assist Trophy, in a similar fashion to how the more popular Bomberman ended up being an Assist Trophy with the bigger mascot (but less popular in the ballot) Simon getting in as the Konami newcomer instead. Perhaps Banjo may not be in the game at all, maybe Sakurai could be saving them for later, adding the big boys like Master Chief to establish a strong relationship with the competitor first before comfortably delving into the smaller stuff, in a similar speculated possibility of adding Cloud as Smash DLC, then adding Geno later down the line in Ultimate.

Banjo being Sakurai's #1 priority due to the ballot is not the only possibility we should account for when determining Banjo's chances in Smash Ultimate. Other possible scenarios should be considered and thought about critically before weighing down the final conclusion. Personally, I just cannot see Banjo happening in the base game, considering the kind of Ultimate content Sakurai has shown thus far and thinking about the other possible scenarios of Microsoft negotiation. Should a character from Microsoft be playable, I feel certain that more attractive choice Sakurai would go for is adding Master Chief in Ultimate. I feel the unusually optimistic perspective Smash fans currently have for Banjo will end up in major disappointment if they continue to think in a narrow manner, basing everyone's chances purely based on the ballot when that aspect alone has not greatly helped other third-party candidates from smaller franchises like Bomberman and Shovel Knight at all. Those are my thoughts on Banjo.

----------------

x5 Hanafuda character

Very well put. If they were going to go to all the trouble of securing a Microsoft character - the chances of which are so low anyway that it's basically not even worth considering - they would choose a general representative of the company as a whole. Banjo is not that. Connection to Nintendo or no, he's still a character that has been effectively dead for fifteen years and has no presence in the public eye at all (by which I mean outside of support threads). The average person, and especially in Japan, is just going to go "who?".

 

[StormC]

Very well put. If they were going to go to all the trouble of securing a Microsoft character - the chances of which are so low anyway that it's basically not even worth considering - they would choose a general representative of the company as a whole. Banjo is not that. Connection to Nintendo or no, he's still a character that has been effectively dead for fifteen years and has no presence in the public eye at all (by which I mean outside of support threads). The average person, and especially in Japan, is just going to go "who?".

The Banjo games had a cult following in Japan and the characters were decently requested by Japanese fans.

I guess K. Rool won’t be added because the average person wouldn’t recognize him either. He hasn’t been in the public eye in TWENTY years. God knows when we last saw that Simon Belmont either. Can’t count on him to be added.

 

[warpenguin55]

Geno:
Chance: 70%
He's a popular pick, but it all comes down to if Square Enix wants him in. With that big of an X factor, I can't feel confidant in anything

Want: 10%
After having why people wanted Geno explained to me, I still don't want him but at least I get it now. If he gets in I can be happy for his fans now that he doesn't seem like a random pick that got popular for no reason.

Banjo Kazooie:
Chance: 15%
There's a limit to the amount of 3rd party characters. Support is good, but I still doubt he'd make it in to the base roster. His chance as a DLC character is a lot better though

Want: 0%
Banjo makes as much sense to me as Goku or Shrek. I don't get it. Also we already have another Dog (or is he a bear idk) - Bird combo with Duck Hunt.

Noms:
Zeraora x2
Silvally x3

 

[Smasher 101]

Time for a way too long post on two characters where my chance and want scores will be extremely different!

Banjo-Kazooie

Chance: 10%

I wish I could rate this as highly as a lot of you people seem to think, but I don't think I'll ever be too confident in a character owned by a direct competitor getting in until it happens. I also feel it'll happen as DLC if anything, which I don't account for in my scores. They obviously have their pros, of course. They're undoubtedly one of the most popular choices not in currently, and thus far this game has been geared towards fanservice. They were a big part of the Nintendo 64, and Phil Spencer has even given them the ok. At this point I think they're more likely than Steve (and Master Chief but frankly I don't think he's even in the running). I don't know, I haven't seen enough until recently to make me think that there'd be any Microsoft content in Smash. I feel like if anything there's just going to be some minor Minecraft content. This probably didn't make any sense so maybe I just don't want to get too excited. Ask me again when it's time for DLC.

Want: 100%

God I hope I'm skeptical for nothing. I love these two. The Nintendo 64 was my first console and their games have always been among my favorites for the system. I still consider both N64 titles to be among my favorite games of all time. I love the characters, I still consider them Nintendo stars, they already have an ideal moveset pretty much ready, they fit in so well...I just think they deserve this. They're my most wanted and it isn't remotely close. If by some miracle they get in I'll main them no matter what and will be ok with almost anyone else joining. Literally bring in a Bubsy and Brash tag team with them if you want, at least I'd have my bear and bird.

Geno

Chance: 90%

I would have just laughed at you if you told me a few years ago that I'd find Geno a near lock for the next Smash game, but at this point I honestly think he's in and is the only unique fighter I'm fully confident in. Square Enix is in from the start this time, and while I recognize that they're Square Enix, given that Geno has already gotten something in Smash I doubt they wouldn't let him become a full character. He's also very popular, and we've already seen that high support can get a less than relevant character in. Heck, Sakurai himself has commented on Geno! I very much think he went for it, and I'll be surprised if he didn't get the doll in.

Want: 5%

I've never cared about Geno. I have no connection with him, and see him as a pretty minor character overall, so I have more interest in a large number of other third parties and a couple other Mario characters. The 5% is entirely for his fanbase, because if they managed to get a character like this in, then you know what, they've earned it.

Nominations: Gardevoir x5

 

[Speculator]

The Banjo games had a cult following in Japan and the characters were decently requested by Japanese fans.

I guess K. Rool won’t be added because the average person wouldn’t recognize them either. He hasn’t been in the public eye in TWENTY years. God knows when we last saw that Simon Belmont either.

Oh...

The character has no presence in Japan at all. It is an exercise in self-delusion to claim BK has some kind of following. For reference I live in a major Japanese city and frequent several of the retro gaming hotspots, not once have I seen or heard a peep out of the series. Anecdotal evidence sure, but it beats no evidence.

K. Rool cannot be equated because he is a character that Nintendo actually owns. Simon cannot be equated because he is a figurehead of a long-running, genre-defining Japanese game series. The core difference is how far Nintendo would have to go out of their way to acquire rights to a character for basically very little return.

 

[StormC]

The character has no presence in Japan at all. It is an exercise in self-delusion to claim BK has some kind of following. For reference I live in a major Japanese city and frequent several of the retro gaming hotspots, not once have I seen or heard a peep out of the series. Anecdotal evidence sure, but it beats no evidence.

K. Rool cannot be equated because he is a character that Nintendo actually owns. Simon cannot be equated because he is a figurehead of a long-running, genre-defining Japanese game series. The core difference is how far Nintendo would have to go out of their way to acquire rights to a character for basically very little return.

https://sourcegaming.info/2015/09/13/japantopdlcpt2/

Banjo was discussed on Japanese social media during the ballot era, enough to appear in this piece of research.

https://i.imgtc.com/COf52oG.jpg

Banjo was in the top 20 of a “most anticipated” poll this year run by a Japanese magazine.

Nintendo has more to gain by adding Banjo than Chief, you can be sure of that.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Banjo also holds iconic status, also has moveset potential, and his franchise is also a huge part of gaming history, and he lacks the con of not being associated with Nintendo, and he has been highly demanded. There is no reason why Chief would be picked over Banjo.

Aside from demand and not being associated with Nintendo (Which I do not think matters much with Cloud and Snake in the roster), Master Chief outclasses Banjo's iconic nature, moveset potential, and gaming history by miles for Chief to be worth considering over Banjo. Choosing Banjo over Microsoft's mascot Chief first makes as much sense as getting Jibanyan/Mark over Layton, or a Fatal Frame character over Tecmo's biggest character Ryu Hayabasa, or Spyro getting in over Crash.

Why would we assume that Sakurai would go to Microsoft to ask for any rep they want to give? It seems likelier to me that he would go ask for a specific character. I can’t imagine Sakurai thinking in terms of ‘company reps’ like we do.

Because that is what the current discussion is about, a scenario where Microsoft newcomers get considered because of the competitor allowing use for their characters. StormC made an argument that Chief's merits could apply any other third party series, when in that Microsoft scenario, Chief only has Steve and Banjo to compare merits to.

 

[StormC]

Also, Banjo-Kazooie sold 400k units in Japan, which is comparable to Paper Mario.

https://web.archive.org/web/20081230005328/http://www.japan-gamecharts.com/n64.php

Like I said, it’s a cult classic there, not a mainstream hit, but definitely not a complete unknown.

 

[Jomosensual]

Geno:

Chance: 100
He's getting in. sakuri wants him in, which would normally be enough to get him in on it's own. Then we also have the fan demand factor, which should be more than enough to get him in too. I think he'll be the last character revealed in November, or whenever the last direct for the game is, but he's pretty much a lock it seems. Only real knock on him is relevance, but that doesn't seem to matter with King K Rool getting in


Want: 40:
Don't know much about him and never played the Mario RPG game. I've seen some nice character concepts for him though so I'll give him a bit higher of a score than I usually would.

Banjo-Kazooie

Chance: 30
so there's some obvious things in his favor, like fan demand, but there's also the fact he's a western character, he was planned for the first smash game but wasn't a part of it and hasnt been discussed since for a game*, and the rift with rare. I think if they want him in Banjo gets in, but I'm not even sure sakuri wants him in. I also really think some of the fan demand is overblown. He hasn't had a game since 1998, and while I don't think relevance matters as much for this game, there's also a lot of people who might not have any clue who he is. Not that the fan demand isn't there, there is for sure, but I think places like Reddit are also going to be more favorable towards

Want: 20
I don't see the appeal personally. Never played the game so maybe that's why, but we already have 4 multi characters already, he seems like he'd play really close to Duck Hunt, so I don't really see a unique or interesting concept here either. Keeping it above a 0 because I'll be happy for his fanbase,but as as an outsider I don't really see any appeal here

Nomination: Nathan Drake x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Geno

Chance: 70%
Square Enix playing ball at the start was the first big thing going for him. Now with both K. Rool and Ridley out of the way, Geno becomes the biggest, longest-standing "Nintendo" candidate by sheer process of elimination. If the pattern holds, then it's pretty possible that it'd trickle down all the way to Geno.

Sakura's attention is one heck of a golden ticket. Any and all arguments can be thrown aside when it's very possible that the man can just whim Geno into Smash Bros, without any pesky copyright barrier to stop him now.

Want: 10%
It's still a no for me. Decades after his game's release, Geno still feels like a small-fry trying to get into a big pool, and I'd hate to think that sheer tenacity is it'd take to put anyone into Smash Bros. Sure didn't work for Waluigi.

You and Sakurai want to make him playable, go right ahead, but you won't convince me that he actually deserves it.


Banjo-Kazooie

Chance: 60%
Oh, Phil Spencer, why'd you have to spoil the fun. Maybe there's a chance that Microsoft's licensing division knew better than to tell him, but characters take much longer than 8 months to make, especially when Sora Ltd. is probably already cramming in as much as they can.

Again, I don't see Microsoft as being the issue - what Sakurai wants, Sakurai gets. I don't see their input being the problem here either, if we compare this to Square Enix and Cloud, because Sakurai was the one who both chose and got Cloud in that case. No,I think the large issue is that Banjo-Kazooie is subject to the same invisibility field that King K. Rool was stuck under, one that saw them overlooked by both Nintendo and Sakurai over and over even when they were perfectly aware that they existed. After all, Sakurai had remembered to make a K. Rool trophy in every past Smash Bros. - he just didn't believe that he had such a worthwhile following until the ballot.

If Ultimate's going to be all about fulfilling old promises, then what about the old hope of getting those Rare IPs?

The other problem is that we just don't know how many big surprises Sakurai has left for us. Snake and Sonic were Brawl's surprises, but didn't have anything as major as them after that. Mega Man and Pac-man were Smash 4's surprises, which also didn't have anyone else on the same level hidden in its sleeves prior to the DLC season. Maybe K. Rool and Ridley will be the only big fandom desires that they'll give us, if the pattern doesn't go far enough to reach Microsoft's desks.


Want: 100%
Make a list of games from Nintendo systems that really mattered in the grand scheme of things, then strike out everything that already has a character in Ultimate. The only large, consistent, unchecked name you will have left is Banjo-Kazooie.

They've got to bring these guys home, even for just one game.


Nominations
Guzma x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Aside from demand and not being associated with Nintendo (Which I do not think matters much with Cloud and Snake in the roster), Master Chief outclasses Banjo's iconic nature, moveset potential, and gaming history by miles for Chief to be worth considering over Banjo. Choosing Banjo over Microsoft's mascot Chief first makes as much sense as getting Jibanyan/Mark over Layton, or a Fatal Frame character over Tecmo's biggest character Ryu Hayabasa, or Spyro getting in over Crash.


Because that is what the current discussion is about, a scenario where Microsoft newcomers get considered because of the competitor allowing use for their characters. StormC made an argument that Chief's merits could apply any other third party series, when in that Microsoft scenario, Chief only has Steve and Banjo to compare merits to.

I don’t think you can really objectively state whether Banjo or Chief has more iconic status or historical relevance, they’re both highly important in their respective fields. For what it’s worth, I feel that Banjo has more moveset potential than Chief, but again that’s subjective. I don’t think it’s miles of difference, and in fact it’s pretty negligible when considering other, more important factors.

Geno:
Chance: 70%
He's a popular pick, but it all comes down to if Square Enix wants him in. With that big of an X factor, I can't feel confidant in anything

Want: 10%
After having why people wanted Geno explained to me, I still don't want him but at least I get it now. If he gets in I can be happy for his fans now that he doesn't seem like a random pick that got popular for no reason.

Banjo Kazooie:
Chance: 15%
There's a limit to the amount of 3rd party characters. Support is good, but I still doubt he'd make it in to the base roster. His chance as a DLC character is a lot better though

Want: 0%
Banjo makes as much sense to me as Goku or Shrek. I don't get it. Also we already have another Dog (or is he a bear idk) - Bird combo with Duck Hunt.

Noms:
Zeraora x2
Silvally x3

The fact that you don’t even know what animal Banjo is suggests you didn’t even care about researching the tiniest bit. Next time, instead of talking out of your ass, just abstain.

Geno:

Chance: 100
He's getting in. sakuri wants him in, which would normally be enough to get him in on it's own. Then we also have the fan demand factor, which should be more than enough to get him in too. I think he'll be the last character revealed in November, or whenever the last direct for the game is, but he's pretty much a lock it seems. Only real knock on him is relevance, but that doesn't seem to matter with King K Rool getting in


Want: 40:
Don't know much about him and never played the Mario RPG game. I've seen some nice character concepts for him though so I'll give him a bit higher of a score than I usually would.

Banjo-Kazooie

Chance: 30
so there's some obvious things in his favor, like fan demand, but there's also the fact he's a western character, he was planned for the first smash game but wasn't a part of it and hasnt been discussed since for a game*, and the rift with rare. I think if they want him in Banjo gets in, but I'm not even sure sakuri wants him in. I also really think some of the fan demand is overblown. He hasn't had a game since 1998, and while I don't think relevance matters as much for this game, there's also a lot of people who might not have any clue who he is. Not that the fan demand isn't there, there is for sure, but I think places like Reddit are also going to be more favorable towards

Want: 20
I don't see the appeal personally. Never played the game so maybe that's why, but we already have 4 multi characters already, he seems like he'd play really close to Duck Hunt, so I don't really see a unique or interesting concept here either. Keeping it above a 0 because I'll be happy for his fanbase,but as as an outsider I don't really see any appeal here

Nomination: Nathan Drake x5

So many people have been claiming Banjo would play similar to Duck Hunt, I wonder if they’ve ever seen a picture of Banjo?

He’s bipedal. Lycanroc is more likely to play similar to Duck Hunt.

 

[DivineWrath45]

Geno

Chance: 60%
Many people here really overestimated his chances here. While Geno does have the popularity and support from the Ballot, it doesn't mean he's completely lock in this game. They still have to approach Square to talk about Geno's inclusion in Smash and given that they added Cloud in the previous game, you'd think this will be easy for them, but no, it's not. They added Cloud, sure, but the Midgar stage had only two songs in there and those aren't even remixes of the original song. But who knows, maybe the support from the Ballot might help his inclusion in Smash, but they still have to approach Square in order for this to happen.

Want: 20%
Geno is a great character and all, but I honestly don't care about him. Why he's such a popular character is beyond me, but I'm not a fan of the character at all. There are other third-party characters that I would consider getting in before Geno.

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 20%
I don't think Banjo & Kazooie can make it in the base roster at this point due to limited roster slots and the fact that Microsoft is a Western company, not to mention it's one of Nintendo's competitors in console wars, meaning it would be difficult for Sakurai to approach them just to include them. I can see them included in DLC, though.

Want: 50%
Personally, I like the character, but I don't see the appeal of them in Smash. It looks like they could just be some sort of a Duck Hunt Echo, but I wouldn't mind them being a unique character.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Um.. I am not one to normally speak objectively, but I believe you can objectively state that Halo has had a bigger influence than Banjo, especially when that franchise spawned endless & continuing kids merchandise, best selling novels, comics, game spinoffs, and even several anime films that continue to make Chief a relevant and recognizable icon. Halo has had major cultural influence. Banjo, in comparison, despite being impactful in its own right, does not hold a candle to Halo.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Um.. I am not one to normally speak objectively, but I believe you can objectively state that Halo has had a bigger influence than Banjo, especially when that franchise spawned endless & continuing kids merchandise, best selling novels, comics, game spinoffs, and even several anime films that continue to make Chief a relevant and recognizable icon. Halo has had major cultural influence. Banjo, in comparison, despite being impactful in its own right, does not hold a candle to Halo.

God of War has also had a bigger influence than Banjo. So has Half-Life, Grand Theft Auto, Prince of Persia, League of Legends, and even Candy Crush. Where's the support thread for Mr. Toffee from Candy Crush?

The problem with treating all games objectively and without any relation to Nintendo is that it makes the Smash Bros. roster look extremely imperfect, if not outright lacking, as a video-game all-stars crossover. So many of Nintendo's properties don't hold a candle to Halo, but you'll never see anyone complain about them getting in before the Chief. Take the comparison between Arle Nadja and Lip - even though the former is practically infinitely more important and relevant to both the history of puzzle games and the modern gaming scene, Lip still has the stronger chance of getting into Smash because she's actually within the Nintendo bubble. Yes, Banjo's not in the bubble anymore either - but he certainly was, long ago, just as Donkey Kong Country was, and that's what people are hoping that a Banjo inclusion would honor.

Master Chief is only in this equation at all because he's on the same road as Banjo, and suddenly it becomes possible to pick up someone of his level, even when Halo done practically nil for Nintendo besides making the Gamecube era hard for them. He can't even use the "important to shooters" argument when Doomguy can make the same claim, both from an even earlier point in history and with much closer ties to Nintendo.

 

[StormC]

In my opinion, Banjo would not be evaluated by normal third party criteria but as a former Nintendo character. He would be a very special case similar to Bayonetta. Otherwise neither of those two would ever see the light of day in Smash.

 

[BluePikmin11]

That theory of Banjo being judged as a Nintendo character sounds very farfetched Storm. :9

At the time of the project plan, Sakurai would likely seen Banjo as a third party, especially when he was aware of the Rare buyout between Smash 64 and Melee when he was asked about including Banjo in Smash, knowing exactly who owns Banjo.

Master Chief is only in this equation at all because he's on the same road as Banjo, and suddenly it becomes possible to pick up someone of his level, even when Halo done practically nil for Nintendo besides making the Gamecube era hard for them. He can't even use the "important to shooters" argument when Doomguy can make the same claim, both from an even earlier point in history and with much closer ties to Nintendo.

I do not think appearing in a Nintendo console will matter that much anymore for Smash Ultimate's personally. There migh be misgivings when deciding Chief, with him being a Western third party character with no Nintendo appearances, but I think that can easily be forgiven when weighing the huge pros in including Microsoft's biggest mascot, Master Chief.

As for the Doomguy argument, just because DOOM is most important, doesn't wipe out the fact that Halo still made a huge historical landmark/evolution for the FPS genre. Both can get in by their own notable merits.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Discussion is going well, and due to a very bad cold I am extending the day to tomorrow. Since both characters are getting hype ( we even got some strong new posters!) I feel this is ok.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I got classes that will keep me busy tomorrow, so discussion and responses might take a long while to do. I am going to bed for now, it is late midnight here, but feel free to respond overnight, I will look into responses later.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Geno
Chance: 40% - The only reason I've given him this high is because Sakurai claiming he wants him in, and Square has their foot in the door. That's it.
Want: 0% - I really just don't see the appeal of a one-off character from a game that Nintendo doesn't even really recognize as existing. Besides, he's not even the most iconic party member (I'd argue that's Mallow.)

Banjo & Kazooie
Chance: 30% - Microsoft's Phil Spencer has said he's fine with it, and this game is all about fanservice, fanservice, fanservice. It really seems like Sakurai's doing the impossible this time.
Want: 100% - Solely for the fanbase, as I have no attachment to them. That said, they hold heavy Nintendo clout to many fans, and are iconic to gaming as a whole.

Nominations:
Frank West x5

 

[Delzethin]

Alright. I think I have something worth saying.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Geno

What strange circumstances we've found ourselves in. Geno has run the gamut in Smash speculation, from underdog in Brawl, to afterthought for most of Smash 4, to...well, you've seen the talk. Knowledge that he's been on Sakurai's radar for a long time, plus word that the Smash Ballot is being used for at least some of Ultimate's newcomers, have brought a long-sought wish to the forefront once more. With so many pipe dreams made reality so far, including the two most-speculated characters over the last 12 years, could Geno be next?

It's an interesting case. On one hand, I think the talk of him being inevitable is overblown by hype, borne from people so enthralled by the idea of him finally getting in that outcomes where he doesn't are being overlooked (Seriously, guys, what's with all the >80 scores?). He is still a third party character who could easily end up outclassed in a really tough room. But on the other...this really is the best chance he's ever had. Between his enduring status as a fan favorite from a cult classic game, the fact that Sakurai himself is aware of said status, and Nintendo and Square-Enix working more closely together than they have in a long time...things may just be adding up. And while he'd never have been Square-Enix's first character in Smash--that was always going to be someone from Final Fantasy--he very well could be their second.

If the stars are willing, perhaps this red-headed stepchild of Nintendo and Square may finally have the chance to grant a wish we thought was long forgotten.

Chance for Geno: 50%

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Banjo & Kazooie

Seems like talk surrounding these two has also had an upturn. With King K. Rool finally getting in, lack of relevance be damned, there's been a resurgence surrounding other characters associated with the Ballot. If Geno's chances are shining brighter than ever before--albeit not quite as crystal clear as it seems--what does it mean for the bear and bird?

Thing is...there's a lot more to consider here. For one, we're not even sure if Microsoft is collaborating with Nintendo for Ultimate yet. It's a very important step, and one that'd need to be done between two companies who are still direct competitors to an extent--an issue Ridley and K. Rool never had to worry about due to being under Nintendo's wing, and even Geno's patron company would have much less to consider than Microsoft does.

For two...there are other characters to consider that Nintendo, Microsoft, and even Sakurai and his team might find more compelling. With Minecraft being the juggernaut that it is (Sakurai himself has talked about it, no less), maybe Steve or other Minecraft content would be deemed higher priority. Or who knows, maybe even Master Chief somehow? He has a lot of red flags, but maybe there's something we've overlooked.

Popularity and nostalgia alone can't guarantee anyone a spot on the roster, not when there're so many potential newcomers to choose from. While this focus on the Ballot and Microsoft's willingness to collaborate in general give this pair from a bygone era a way in, they still need several things to go right in order to join the fight.

Chance for B&K: 20%

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And here's where my personal bias rears its ugly head. Super Mario RPG was the first game of its genre that I ever played, and just like with many other nineties kids, it ended up being a gateway into other RPGs for me. I don't get caught up in nostalgia very often, and yet Geno still feels as interesting now as he did then. Seriously, have you ever taken a step back and realized that he's basically the equivalent of an angel inhabiting an action figure, aiding the heroes in defeating an army of living weapons from another dimension who destroyed heaven on their way in? And he attacks by transforming his doll body's arms and legs into E-rated firearms! Somehow, after over 20 years, he still feels fresh and interesting and a natural fit for the Mario 'verse despite Square-Enix still having custody of him. I realize how silly it all sounds coming from someone like me, but...I suppose Geno is the exception to the rule, and it's made him one of my most wanted newcomers now that he actually has a legitimate chance.

Banjo, on the other hand...not gonna lie, some aspects of this rub me the wrong way. So much of his support feels like it's banking on nostalgia, on the idea that the duo's seniority automatically makes them more important and more worthy than all of the rising stars from recent years. The talk of how they had to be in, needed to be in just because a Microsoft rep was open to the idea felt like people jumping on board just because they wanted to be part of the crowd. And at times, it feels like all of their potential roadblocks are just...dismissed offhand as if being a treasured childhood memory means none of that red tape matters.

It feels like a double standard, you know? At least I know full well that Geno is an anomaly! It's why I don't talk about him much.

Am I going too far, resenting a character (well, technically two) because of my own personal hangups? Perhaps. But as it stands, seeing them get in, proving that seniority and nostalgia invalidate all else and that so many promising new faces never had a chance all along solely because they weren't here first...it'd leave a bitter taste in my mouth.

Want for Geno: 90%
Want for B&K: 25%

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Okay...what to nominate? How about:

Concept: Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode x5

 

[a smart guy]

Oh boy, it's the wanted 3rd parties.
Geno:
Chance: 50% I'm going with a toss up on this one. On the one hand, a massive fan demand and Square Enix's involvement in the game. On the other hand, a lack of relevance in both his own game and in future games. Make no mistake, Geno lives and dies on fan service. It just depends on how heavily fan service is weighed this game. Obviously it has a fairly large role, but how large?
Want: 40% No personal attachment to this character. Would be happy for his fans.

Banjo & Kazooie:
Chance: 1% I know this is harsh, but let's be realistic. Microsoft is a direct competitor to Nintendo. I don't think Phil Spencer would tweet about them if they were already in. Add to that a lack of relevance, and you have a serious roadblock. Yes, they are extremely popular in the West, but making inroads with a new 3rd party is difficult, especially across continents. I just don't see it happening.
Want: 40% Again, no personal attachment, would be happy for his fans.

Nominations:
No More Stages x5

 

[EricTheGamerman]

I do see some people noting the lack of Final Fantasy content in the game as some sign that Square is less willing to play ball. Isn't that almost entirely due to their rough situation with Nobou Uematsu and them not parting on the best of terms with him, thus making licensing his work in general a more difficult issue. Music aside, Final Fantasy got as much representation in Smash 4 as Street Fighter did, arguably more with the fact that the stage had the complex summons mechanic versus the fact that Suzaku Castle was more of a plain overall stage (Not a dig). And so far that remains the same for this game minus the whole likelihood of a Ken Echo for Ryu. I don't think that's a fair sign that Square is difficult to work with or not willing to play ball, I think it's just a reality of Final Fantasy VII's soundtrack.

Anyways:

Geno

Chance - 80%

Yeah, he's a lot higher than most, and possibly higher than he should be, but sue me. With King K. Rool and Ridley in, only he and Isaac remain as the pseudo top dogs of classic Brawl speculation, and Isaac had a much higher support during 4. Geno, on the other hand, was THE character for Brawl speculation and his legacy as a requested character stands to this day. With the ballot being a large influence to this game, this not only puts him in the running, but also makes him pretty likely given his popularity. Add to that the comments Sakurai made on Geno; that he wanted to add him as he thought he fit Smash and that he was a requested character to this day, and he becomes even more likely. Finally with the Mii costume, they've already licensed the rights to him for an appearance. That's a lot going for our boy in blue.

His only real issues are the following: Square Enix decides to not to allow a renewal of the license for Geno as a character. Geno wasn't made a priority to the development team because of his limited overall status and/or he did not perform as well in the Smash ballot. And maybe Square demanded a second character of their choosing that was not Geno to be a partner in Ultimate (This is one of the least convincing arguments I've ever heard and honestly, I don't see Square caring enough about Smash to do something of the sort).

Want - 100%

He is currently number one on my list of desired newcomers that have yet to be confirmed. I adore Super Mario RPG, love his design, and want to see the happiness that brings to the community of supporters. He's been listed as the last of the Brawl trinity, and I'd love to see that happen. The Mii costume doesn't do him any justice (Not that any of them ever did for characters, I despise their inclusion). Plus I'd love to see the relevance argument take another massive hit in my own selfish way.

Banjo Kazooie:

Chance - 25%

Alright, this is a weird one. I have no doubt he did extremely well on the ballot in no small part to Phil Spencer's comment. He's always been a bit of a pipe dream character, and few characters could carry the weight of Sakurai working to please the fans like Banjo Kazooie could. The original games are extremely dear to those who grew up with the N64, and thus he carries so much weight. Because of this, I do think it's entirely possible that Sakurai made that effort to include them. The results of that effort are where I begin to have problems. If there was ever a "grown up" circumstance, it would be this specific deal with Microsoft. They've softly collaborated on stuff over the years, but that's still a pretty huge leap to include the IP of a competitor in one of the premiere games on a Nintendo console, and who knows what either company might have to say in regards to that. There are so many more points where this character choice could get turned down, that I can't put a ton of belief into his chances.

Want - 100%

So I grew up playing the original Banjo Kazooie on the N64. That is still one of my favorite games, and one of the premier 3D platformers to me. I adore the game, and I adore the personality that these two little icons of Rare have. I think they'd have a unique move set that could call a lot of attention to their admittedly huge move pool from the games. I'd imagine Sakurai would do them the highest amount of justice in their inclusion, and seeing them in proper glorious HD would be amazing. They are my pipe dream character for Smash as they do represent a much larger piece of Nintendo's history than I think people give them credit for. And the more Rare representation the better in my opinion given how much they managed to give to Nintendo.



I do want to talk about the Microsoft debate a little on another note. I don't see Sakurai including Steve or Master Chief over them if given the chance. In addition? Sure, but not over the bear and bird. As I just mentioned, Banjo Kazooie represent the N64 era of Nintendo to an absolute tee and have a huge history attached to them as a result. They are massively nostalgic to so many fans who grew up with the system, which was also where Smash debuted. I think that's a small, but important detail in this decision as it represents the people who have truly grown up with Smash as well. With the recent fan support of their inclusion in Smash, particularly in conjunction with the ballot, they have become the symbol of fan service being achieved. So many people considered them a pipe dream for years, and now that their inclusion COULD be a possibility, they've grown considerably support wise.

All of the third party FRANCHISES represented in Smash have connections to Nintendo (or at least a special circumstance in the case of Snake whose connection is more tenuous and relates to Sakurai's personal relations). Cloud is the Final Fantasy representative just by virtue of being the most identifiable character (And also they're being a larger lack of clear classic reps from the Nintendo days, sorry Terra fans, I know you're up and coming).

Master Chief doesn't exist in the Nintendo cannon outside of Minecraft, nor does Halo in general. I see some people try to argue that Smash has become a celebration of gaming instead of just Nintendo. I disagree with this idea as I don't see any convincing evidence that the focus has moved off of Nintendo to that degree. Sakurai has done a lot to include nods to fan desires and acknowledge series outside of Nintendo. We have a Rayman trophy, a Commander Video trophy, Shovel Knight as an assist trophy and so on, yes. But even those share at least some history with Nintendo if not significantly so. He also has the gun problem going against him. I'd actually love him in the game despite all these comments, but I don't see him in.

Minecraft is in a much better place to get representation, but I think that Steve's chances are still overstated. I doubt he or Minecraft had the kind of presence on the ballot people try to argue about not being reported in surveys due to us not being the target audience of Minecraft. I doubt that target audience people speak of voted on the ballot in general though, and those that did could have had any number of other picks. So I think Minecraft loses on the fan angle still to Banjo Kazooie. Despite the popularity of the series, I don't see how a playable representative is necessarily a priority.

Regardless of how big either of those franchises are, and could attract people to the game, Banjo still has the history and fan support going for him in spades. So I absolutely see him being the top priority if a playable representative is picked for Smash, especially in the game that Sakurai has alluded to so many times as for the fans. I also expect he knows the kind of backlash he'd get if he includes one of the other two, and not Banjo, and I'd imagine that is something he'd like to avoid. Despite the opportunity of two big franchises, there is also the opportunity of making a hugely fan pleasing inclusion who has significant history with Nintendo thanks to his popularity in the N64 days, and whose fans likely overlap with the original Smash fans. Thus I think he is the most likely inclusion as a Microsoft rep bar none.

 

[JamesDNaux]

I wasn't even gonna post but here goes.

Banjo-Kazooie
Chance: 75%
Want: 100%

After seeing various posts in here, just gonna let this out. Master Chief and Steve will absolutely not get in over Banjo, it's been explicitly confirmed that the ballot is being used for this game. This is not Smash For, every game has a different philosophy for newcomers and it's extremely clear that Ultimate's philosophy is fan service. Banjo consistently tops polls, people want him back, no ifs ands or buts, I'd even argue that he was higher than K. Rool on the ballot. No other Microsoft owned character was even a presence in any polls, the only reason anyone has to pick one of them over Banjo is to be contrarian.

Call me biased if you want, but my original chance rating for the duo was 1% because I thought they were always a pipe dream. It's been steadily raising as circumstances change, and now I feel more confident than ever. Just because you kids don't remember the N64 doesn't mean these two aren't icons.

Geno
Chance: 90%
Want: 9999 75%

Ditto on the ballot for Geno, he's absolutely the kind of fan want that Sakurai would be happy to serve. He even got a costume and a direct comment from Sakurai. Guess what other highly requested character got a costume to tide over fans? The starman is ready to make his grand comeback.

I recently played through Mario RPG to see what the hype was all about, but I'm mostly supporting him for his fans, I think he'd be pretty rad in Smash.

 

[Honest Slug]

I think some people look too much at the franchise and not at the character.

Yes, Minecraft is a big series, but could you honestly tell me that Steve would be an exciting newcomer? Just because a franchise is successful doesn't mean it deserves a character over Banjo-Kazooie, who's inclusion means much more than Steve would. He was once considered just as much of a Nintendo character as Mario and Link. Banjo would have more meaning behind his inclusion, to bring him back to his home. Banjo is a huge part of Nintendo's legacy with Rare, to pass on him would be a crime.

I've actually played Halo unlike BK so I have more personal want for Chief but it'd be madness if he came before BK. His ballot popularity and connection to Nintendo without the baggage of having to deal with guns would make for a clear choice

Also Shovel Knight is in so the whole no western third parties allowed thing is kinda moot.

 

[Barbasol]

Geno
Chance: 40%
I think that we as a Smash community are really latching onto this side character from a single spin-off game from two decades ago. When you look at what a character would bring to the table to attract an audience, you usually would look at broad appeal, bringing in a fanbase that might not always be 100% locked in to your product. Barring that - catering to your fanbase is good of course. I think that if you took a step outside of Smashboards, you'd be reasonably hard pressed for the average gamer to know who Geno is. It's like me suggesting fan favourite from another RPG game, Rawk Hawk, be playable.

That said - there's some positive factors in his favour, Sakurai's comments on liking the character and the Mii Costume mainly - so in spite of what I said above, he's not too bad overall.

Want: 10% - I would be happy to see the enduring fans get what they want, but as one of a handful of newcomer slots - I feel like there's more deserving characters.


Banjo & Kazooie
Change: 75%

Lots of demand on both sides of the Pacific, representation of an era of Nintendo games, close previous relationship. If the franchise wasn't so dormant, I'd be way more likely. But overall, I think one of the most likely 3rd Parties for sure.

Want: 85% - Yes pleeeeease. They deserve it so much and it harkens back to the wonderful N64 era.


Nominations:
Are we revoting on Black Shadow? Because him being 3.8% when we have echoes seems wildly low. If so, x10 Black Shadow revote.

 

[Oblivion129]

Geno
Chance: 75%
Square being involved since the beginning of development, and Sakurai looking into the ballot, might make Sakurai want to include him this time. He might not be a top 5 ballot pick, so I wonder if Sakurai would choose him anyways.
Want: 100%
Big fan ever since I played SMRPG as a kid. My favorite team was Mario, Geno, and Bowser. I loved his strength, moves, and personality. Brawl speculation days made me realize other people liked him as well. He's my most wanted character at the moment.

Banjo
Chance: 85%
Some might think it's weird I have him with pretty high chances, but I personally think Banjo was among the top 3 Ballot picks, and I think Sakurai would definitely want to add him. I'm sure Sakurai can find a way to negotiate for him.
Want: 75%
I didn't own the game myself but I played with my cousin as a kid and I enjoyed it a lot. I later got my own N64 with DK64 and felt like it was a straight upgrade to B&K so I didn't buy it. I still like the character, though.

Nominations: Master Chief x5

 

[Speculator]

https://sourcegaming.info/2015/09/13/japantopdlcpt2/

Banjo was discussed on Japanese social media during the ballot era, enough to appear in this piece of research.

https://i.imgtc.com/COf52oG.jpg

Banjo was in the top 20 of a “most anticipated” poll this year run by a Japanese magazine.

Nintendo has more to gain by adding Banjo than Chief, you can be sure of that.

The first source shows Banjo listed with a total of 51 votes. Even from their sample size of 1000 that's barely more than a dent, not a K. Rool style outpouring of fan demand. As for the second I'd be interested to know exactly which magazine - I can't read the link at the bottom so I can't get to the original source.

They are occasionally mentioned on places like 2ch, but it's usually along the lines of "This is a commonly requested character in the West, they may be included if NoA pushes for it". Adding Banjo would be exclusively for the satisfaction of Western fans, and as a third party that works against him. They are much, much more likely to reach out for characters like Simon which are recognizable in all regions and offer a much stronger return. In real terms, to a Japanese developer, that means Japanese-owned characters.

 

[StormC]

The first source shows Banjo listed with a total of 51 votes. Even from their sample size of 1000 that's barely more than a dent, not a K. Rool style outpouring of fan demand. As for the second I'd be interested to know exactly which magazine - I can't read the link at the bottom so I can't get to the original source.

I never claimed it was an outpouring of fan demand comparable to K. Rool, just that Banjo had some tracking and wasn't a complete unknown.

Also, now that I'm not on mobile, I realize that URL is entirely unreadable, lol. But I was able to track it down:

https://www.inside-games.jp/article/2018/07/15/116161.html

I'm not sure if "anticipated" in this context means "expected" or "wanted," but it's at least an interesting look into Japanese speculation.

 

[Iko MattOrr]

Geno

He's been rumored a lot, he's been massively supported and requested since Brawl, Sakurai said he wants him in Smash, he made a Geno Mii costume and Square Enix is still involved in the game.
Though, I'm convinced that he's still far from being a lock... they can still decide that he should stay as a Mii costume because he's not important enough... I'm not sure of what will happen, but we'll see in a little more than a couple of months.
Chance: 40%

Geno comes from a spin-off game, appeared only in that game aside of a couple of cameos (yes I'm counting Smash 4)... he's not important, Nintendo has never shown any interest in bringing him back, not even in Mario Hoops 3 on 3 that was another Mario+Square game.
He's unimportant, if we think about relevancy, he doesn't deserve being in Smash.
But I don't care at all, he's been one of my dream characters when I was younger, and I wanted him for many years. I realize that there are other more deserving character and I want him only because of personal bias, though, this doesn't change the fact that I would explode of hype and happiness if I see him announced as newcomer all of a sudden.
Want: 100%

Banjo & Kazooie

Mhhh... I don't know what to think about them. They are popular and requested, though, there's a part of me who is telling me that they won't make it.
They don't have much appeal in the general public anymore, really. Yooka Laylee wasn't well recived at all, it seems that the new generations aren't iterested in that type of games anymore, and going thorugh the Microsoft copyright mess only for this character and his long time fans, well... may be worth for his fans, but most people simply wouldn't care IMO.
I say this because Banjo was in Sonic & Sega All Stars Racing (XBox 360 bonus) and nobody cared about it, it's not a big name that would sell more copies of the game like Sonic or Ryu, or Cloud.
Chance: 10%

I never liked collectathon games too much, and especially I'm not a fan of Rare and their childish humor.
I quite dislike their style and I'm not really a fan of Donkey Kong either because of the same reason. Honestly, I don't care of this character at all, it doesn't affect my most wanted characters.
I would say, want 0%, but 0% would mean that I don't want him. The point is that I'm just uninterested instead.
They can add him, I just wouldn't play as him. I think 50% is a better number to say I'm neutral... but I'll lower it to 40% because of what I said at the beginning of this paragraph.
Want: 40%

 

[Majalbatross]

Geno: 85% chance

I think the inclusion of K-Rool and Ridley due to the massive fan demand (aka the Smash Ballot) has greatly increased his chances of making it this time. Geno has consistently shown to be a strong fan favourite newcomer choice since Brawl and that fanfare for him has never seemed to stop despite it being over a decade. Sakurai has also shown evident support for his inclusion into the Smash franchise, whether it be through a full-on Mii fighter costume or through interviews.

Want: 95%

Lord, have I wanted Geno for a long time. While I acknowledge that he hasn't been a prominent character in any Nintendo game since his debut, his impact on Mario RPG history and his brilliant character design is just too good to ignore in terms of moveset potential. Also, just IMAGINE how good a Forest Maze remix would sound in Smash.

 

[Turtlar]

Geno

Chance - 65%

Considering the Mii costume trend, the Verg rumor stating a second Square rep, and Sakurai's own stated desire to add him as a character, I think Geno has a pretty good shot at making it in. I won't say he's guaranteed just yet, but chances are looking the best they ever have for Geno.

Want - 100%

Geno was my most wanted for Brawl, alongside Mega Man. SMRPG is favorite game of all time, and moveset practically writes itself. My brothers and I all played it as kids, and while they no longer game much themselves, they've admitted that Geno being added would get them to buy a Switch and the game. He's a character we've all wanted for decades.


Banjo Kazooie

Chance - 35%

Banjo still feels like a pipe dream, to be honest. I feel if Sakurai were to approach Microsoft about adding them, MS would have no opposition to the idea, since they could only gain from the free publicity. My concern is how Sakurai or Nintendo stand on adding a character from a competitor.

Want - 100%

Banjo, alongside Geno, are my most wanted characters for Ultimate. I grew up during Rare's golden age on the SNES and N64, so their game's are apart of my gamer DNA. I will always see Banjo and his fellow Rareware characters as Nintendo characters, despite who technically owns them. I never thought of any of them as realistic characters for Smash until the ballot, so I'm hoping for the best for my iconic bear and bird duo.

 

[Cosmic77]

Getting some Rex/Pyra and Decidueye flashbacks with all these > 80% Geno scores. Been a while since I've done this, but I figured I'd toss in my opinion.

Geno

Chance: 40%
I've heard all the arguments. "Sakurai is choosing popular ballot characters!" "He had a Mii costume!" "Sakurai wants him!" "Did you hear what Verge said!?" Seems like people are only accounting the evidence that supports Geno.

Yes, Sakurai has stated that he's looking at the ballot, but does that automatically make Geno the lock that people act like he is? Shovel Knight was extremely popular during the ballot, and he's been disconfirmed. Then there's also Waluigi, Krystal, Bomberman, and possibly several others in the future who could get disconfirmed as well. You can't just look at Ridley and K. Rool, ignore all the other characters who didn't make the cut, and say, "Yep. Geno's guaranteed at this point."

He had a Mii costume. You know who else had a Mii costume? Ashley and Takamaru. Both are still an AT. You know who else had a Mii costume? Lloyd and Heihachi. Neither were very popular, but having a costume automatically increases their chances, right? People will bend this topic in whatever direction they want. If Geno's in, it was an obvious hint. If he's not, then it never meant anything and it was never taken seriously by anyone to begin with.

The "Sakurai wants him" comment is probably the most frequently used point to support Geno getting in Smash. All I'll say on this is that Geno can't possibly be the only character Sakurai would like to see in Smash. If he had told us about the dozens of other characters he would've liked to have gotten in Smash, I'm sure the comment about Geno would seem way less significant as people made it out to be.

And the last topic I want to highlight is Verge. All of his claims from April were correct, but nothing after that has come true yet. Personally, I feel like Verge is gonna have to once again prove himself to me before I can trust his sources. He's not wrong yet, but I'm not nearly as bold as some of the other people on this site. Even the huge Gematsu leak had some holes in it, and I wouldn't be surprised if Verge gets a few things wrong as well.

To sum everything up, I do think now is Geno's best chance of getting in, but I also think people are jumping the gun. There's a lot of shaky ground for the character, and I can't help but be a little bothered by how much people are willing to overlook. He's likely, but definitely not 80% likely.

Want: 10%
It'd be nice for the fans to get what they want.

Other than that, I have no other reason to want Geno. I played the game, I get his appeal, but I just don't understand why he should be in Smash over so many more iconic options. He's a sore thumb among sore thumbs, and I feel like a majority of his younger supporters are just piggybacking off what the older generation wants.

If Geno doesn't get in Ultimate, then we should put him to rest and move on to a different character. At least until he gets another game, whenever that may be.