Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Abstaining on both. Just don't have much to say as of late.

Saber: 9.22%
Euden: 17.63%
Gran and Djeeta: 3.54%
Bandana Dee x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't have much to say on either.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x5

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Abstaining.

Noms: Corvo x15
Oooh I got extra noms? Yes please.

 

[Ridrool64]

Let's break the conventions and start with want for both!

Want: 0%. Sorry Shine Meegamy Teensee (this is the worst butchering of SMT I'll ever do in my life), but I don't want a 90's JRPG SEGA(-adjacent) character, or 2000's, or 2020's. I want an 80's JRPG turned puzzle owned by SEGA directly character. That's literally the only reason for Demi (who is otherwise an awesome choice), but with Childish Nahobino there's also the fact that I don't know you and don't know if your game is good. (Probably is, but still) Let me get your game first and THEN I might want to see you in the great fray.

Now the chances.

Chance (Demi): 30%, but it's more like 50% of 30% as I see that as the general SMT block chance. Megaten has a long history in that it did the mons thing before even Pokemon did, and can be aptly described as "Pokemon if the bible thumpers were right about it". Nocturne is the one that revolutionized the series and possibly even the greater franchise: if Nocturne didn't exist, Persona 5 wouldn't exist (as we know it). This guy walked so Yuki could jog so Narukami could run so Joker could sneak his way in. There's no real obvious flaw to him IMO, the character seems easy enough to implement and his series has its little sibling included already so there's unlikely to be any weirdness with it. I think Puyo and Yakuza are probably higher priority, but SMT is definitely at least within range and would not be terribly surprised at all if he rejects Palutena. Or Shulk. Or Creative Steve. Or Sephiroth. Or Wario.

Chance (Nahobino): 10%. No Smash character has ever been revealed prior to their game launching in any region, and if I had to hazard a guess it'd be because if they did and the game got cancelled either they'd have a character from a nonexistent game or they'd have to scrap the fighter. The only two examples, Roy and Corrin, are not only first parties, but also Roy's game got delayed (which is why Melee Roy is nothing like FE6 Roy) and Corrin's game WAS out... in Japan. If you assume the reveal is in September or October, that means we would have a character nobody has any experience with which WILL lead to backlash. Now if you assume the reveal is in November, that would still be either days before or just days after, and we have never had a character THAT new, especially third party as every single third party character in Smash has had a game release well before then. We've only ever had proven third parties, not potentially good ones, and legacy is just as important as relevance. I think this makes them an unlikely character, but not an impossible sell considering that at the unexpected have come to pass plenty of times before.

With all that said, would they at least be fun to play?... How should I know? Did Atlus give Sakurai a test/near gold build of SMTV to work with? If the answer's no then Nahobino is dead on the spot as an uncreatable character. And since that could lead to leaks if they aren't careful, I don't think they did. Thanks to Byleth though the possibility is open. Ultimately while not a character I would dismiss I am not exactly confident Nahobino's gonna happen.

Not doing predictions. Next game isn't a reboot x max.

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstain

Ori x all

 

[DynoStretch]

Demi-Fiend/Nahubino feels like they're in the same boat as Travis Touchdown, Monster Hunter, Geralt of Rivera, etc as a character people thought would be guaranteed to happen because of a game coming to Switch, I admit it's understandable since Nintendo is picking the fighters this time around, so people default to expecting every single one will be an ad for a new game. I swear Corrin just seems to have permanently traumatized people into this sort of mindset.

That said, the fact that Sega/Atlus is one of the few companies remaining who doesn't have a fighter in the pass, and whose major franchises haven't been made into spirit events or a Mii fighter does give them some leverage...

Not sure exactly how they'd play, I've had thoughts on how to do a Demon Summoning mechanic, though my idea kinda sounds too much like Hero but without the random choices.

As far as actually wanting them.... eh, not really.

I'm burned out on both swordfighters (after Sephiroth and Pyra/Mythra) as well as dark edgy characters (after Sephiroth and Kazuya), and really desire to see the pass end on something more magical and whimsical.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

There's been at least 10 hours between this post, the post before it and the post before that, we should move on

 

[Idon]

Demi-fiend:
Chance: 10%
SMT is niche as hell and the promotion train started waaaaaaay too late to every be in consideration by Nintendo back when they were picking characters. The chances of them picking SMT over a more conventionally popular video game franchise or promoting a first party franchise are... slim to say the least.
Want: 100%
I own his damn thread and his series deserves a playable character with all the sheer ****ing history it has. As far as JRPG characters go, he's got a bunch of unique moves and an awesome aesthetic.

Nahobino
Chance: 5%
Same reasoning as Demi-fiend but his game's also not even out yet.
Want: 95%
Only reason it's 5% less is because I don't own the game yet. Regardless, he looks awesome and the same reasoning applies.

Nomination:
x5 "Something Idon actually wants"

 

[PSIGuy]

Demi-Fiend
Chance: 5%
Want: 100%
I feel like Kazuya steps on his toes just a bit too much, but a demonic brawler with summons would be an amazing pick. Also, SMT.

Nahobino
Chance: 1%
Want: 99%
The planning would be insanely difficult considering it comes out at the end of this year and had to be decided as a fighter at least loosely several years ago. But SMT!

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Delete this, I posted too early

 

[GoodGrief741]

One-day-delayed calcs

Phoenix Wright
31.75% Chance - 89.69% Want
I. 31.91% - 61.84%
II. 45.64% - 67.89%
III. 43.94% - 70.91%
IV. 44.13% - 74.69%
V. 28.25% - 82.22%
Fun fact: despite most people saying Phoenix's chances are the best they've ever been, his chance score is, as you can see, his second lowest ever (in fact if you take an outlying chance score of 100% - yes, 100% - his score would be 27.20%, a record low). Is this just a symptom of how conservative scores will be with just one slot left? It is after all the highest chance score since December.
The winner of predictions was Sari with a precise 30.00%
Phoenix is now the fourth most likely character, third most likely third party character, and the most wanted character. In fact, Phoenix's current want score is the highest ever for any character, be they confirmed, disconfirmed or rerated, and higher than any character or concept still in play - the only want score higher on record is for the concept of a second Fighter Pass. Will we manage to get him as a crowd pleasing FP11? Or will the miracle never happen?

Amaterasu
12.12% Chance - 79.29% Want
First time we rated her (back in the days before Terry) she got 18.36% chance and 61.77% want. Last time we rated her (as part of the massive post-Byleth fixed schedule) she got 18.17% chance and 60.00% want.
The winner of predictions was Ridrool64 with 10.58%
Amaterasu is now the third most wanted character.

Arle Nadja
27.00% Chance - 65.00% Want
I. 11.72% - 34.82%
II. 34.79% - 48.86%
III. 39.29% - 60.50%
IV. 35.78% - 57.22%
V. 38.16% - 64.44%
The winner of predictions was Sari with a precise 25.00%

Concept: Phantasy Star newcomer
16.50% Chance - 52.86% Want
The winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 15.88%

Spoiler: Extra noms

3BitSaurus 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
BlueEyedGrimmbat 5
BowserKing 5
Dan Quixote 10
DaUsername 212
Delzethin 5
Inue Houji 74
Mr. MR 75
NintenRob 5
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 10
Sari 10
SKX31 55
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 10
Wunderwaft 5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

There's been at least 10 hours between this post, the post before it and the post before that, we should move on

Demi-fiend:
Chance: 10%
SMT is niche as hell and the promotion train started waaaaaaay too late to every be in consideration by Nintendo back when they were picking characters. The chances of them picking SMT over a more conventionally popular video game franchise or promoting a first party franchise are... slim to say the least.
Want: 100%
I own his damn thread and his series deserves a playable character with all the sheer ****ing history it has. As far as JRPG characters go, he's got a bunch of unique moves and an awesome aesthetic.

Nahobino
Chance: 5%
Same reasoning as Demi-fiend but his game's also not even out yet.
Want: 95%
Only reason it's 5% less is because I don't own the game yet. Regardless, he looks awesome and the same reasoning applies.

Nomination:
x5 "Something Idon actually wants"

Demi-Fiend
Chance: 5%
Want: 100%
I feel like Kazuya steps on his toes just a bit too much, but a demonic brawler with summons would be an amazing pick. Also, SMT.

Nahobino
Chance: 1%
Want: 99%
The planning would be insanely difficult considering it comes out at the end of this year and had to be decided as a fighter at least loosely several years ago. But SMT!

Every time lmao.
Day will end as soon as I’m done w the dog.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Every time lmao.
Day will end as soon as I’m done w the dog.

It's all part of my plan, either the day ends or more discussion happens, win win for the purpose of this thread

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Today we have gacha day. Rate the following characters:

• Saber (Fate)
• Euden (Draglia Lost)
• Gran/Djeeta (Granblue)
  • To those confused, Djeeta is essentially Gran's female counterpart and would most likely get in as a Robin sort of deal. Feel free to rate both of them or just Gran by himself.

Tomorrow is a full Nintendo themed day so predict Ayumi Tachibani, Officer Howard, and Ring Fit Trainee.

-----

Music:

Spoiler: Gacha Music

 

[DanganZilla5]

lightsaber

Chance: 5%

Before I go into my rating I want to say that this will be a sort of an apology writeup. See, the last time that we rated Saber was a couple years back and that was when I first joined SmashBoards and soon after RTC. One thing that I can say is that I'm not proud of my early writeups. They often used logic that was either faulty or just reaching. When we rated Saber I was incredibly harsh on her for no reason. I just saw one argument and just joined in on the hate bandwagon because I only cared about characters that I had history with and Fate was unknown to me at the time. With that in mind, I feel like Saber deserves a fairly decent writeup from me.

So let's jump into it then because I'll entertain this. To start, Fate has some merit to it. It was received very positively and it was popular enough to get sequels, spinoffs as well as manga and anime adaptations. It has maintained relevance throughout its lifetime and even has a couple games on the Switch.

As for the elephant in the room, the one thing that people like to point out as an argument against Fate is that the first game has...erotic scenes in it. But I really don't think it's that big of a deal for multiple reasons. One, to my knowledge there is an updated version of the game that gets rid of the erotic scenes and it's the one that most people nowadays would play unless if they bothered to go out of their way and find the original version on PC. And two, I find it funny that people say that Nintendo will not want people to look uo the game of origin when we already have characters like Bayonetta and Pyra/Mythra. I understand that those games do not have straight up intercourse scenes but it shows that Nintendo is not shy about including games that have fan service and again they could just point out the version that doesn't have the risque scenes. And it's not like they have to go into detail about that kind of stuff when it comes to going over its history.

But despite all that defense, I can't put too much stock into this. I've yet to read a really good argument that persuades me that Saber has a good chance. While Fate is a successful franchise it's still obscure in the West even compared to other games like Danganronpa and Puyo Puyo and would be by far the most obscure third party character in the roster. The fact that the games only got localizations in recent years doesn't help. As for the company, Type-Moon was mostly PC and mobile centric (aside from some PSP and PS Vita games) up until the Switch era where they decided to start making games for consoles. Out of all Japanese companies, I don't see Nintendo going to Type-Moon as they are much closer to other Japanese companies and they haven't advertised their games much. Overall, even if the eroge aspect is a non-issue, Saber still has to deal with odds that are stacked against her.

Want: Abstain

I'll do what I should have done in the first place and abstain. I haven't had the opportunity to play any of the Fate games but considering that I've been getting into visual novels more and more, this has my attention now.

_____________________________

Eugene...errr Euden I mean

Chance: 15%

If you ask me, I think this is a darkhorse. Even though Nintendo has said last year that they are cutting back on mobile games they are still releasing some like that upcoming mobile Pikmin game. That makes me wonder if Nintendo might want to put a mobile character into Smash to help boost the popularity of their mobile market. And what's a better way to do that than bring in one of their original I.Ps, Dragalia Lost? The game seems to be doing well for itself with $100 million dollars grossed as of July 2019 and it even gets crossovers like with Monster Hunter and as recently as Persona 5 Strikers. So Nintendo still cares about the game and to be frank this is the type of game that falls into the category of "not highly discussed but it makes sense and would blindside people."

Want: Abstain

Haven't played the game.

___________________________

A grand and bluish fantasy

Chance: 2%

My logic here is simple: If Nintendo wanted to go with a mobile game, it would likely be their own. Even though Granblue seems to be more popular and successful judging by the numbers I'm reading, it has no Nintendo ties which I still believe is important to have in some shape or form, especially if they have their own alternative. Heck not even the two spinoff console games have been announced for Switch. I understand characters like Cloud and Joker but the difference is that both of them come from highly successful games that broke into the mainstream in numerous regions. Granblue just doesn't have those credentials.

Want: Abstain yet again because you know the drill, I haven't played it

_________________________________

Predictions:
Ayumi - 27%
Howard - 12%
Ring Fit Trainee - 12%

Noms: Pyramid Head x30

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstain

Ori x all

 

[BowserKing]

Saber

Chance: 10% with the final fighter to be revealed soon, Saber’s still has a chance to show up in the fighter’s pass. FWI, if she gets in, I would be presently surprised. I would also be surprised if she became a Mii Costume.

Want: 50%. She would be fun to play as and I can see her fight Lucian and Link in a free for all. Overall, she would make a decent Smash Bros rep.

Euden

Chance: 5%. I don’t know if Euden has a chance for the fighter’s pass, as not only is there’s only one slot left, but also mobile games basically have no representation in Smash. There is a slim chance for a spirit event, but even then it’s a pipe dream.

Want: 50%. He would be fun to play as, and I can see him have a match against Corrin. Overall, he would make a decent Smash Bros rep.

Gran/Djeeta

Chance: 5%. I have major doubts that these two would even appear in the pass. Of course, if they do show it, it would most likely be as a spirit event.

Want: 50%. I don’t know much about them, but as long as they are fun to play as, then it’s good enough for me. Overall, they would make a decent Smash Bros rep.

Prediction: Ayumi (25%), Officer Howard (10%) and Rind Fit Trainee (10%)

Noms: 5 for Boss: Ender Dragon and 5 for Lugia

 

[DaUsername]

Using two hour rule to abstain from Demi Lovato and Nhbnooo.
Noms: DJ Octavio x however many I earned

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain on Saber and the Granblue twins.

Euden, on the other hand;

Chance: 20%
With us being this late into the pass, I'm not sure Euden's in the best spot right now. Doesn't help that his EU presence is kinda shaky.

Want: 80%
I've gravitated towards other characters, but I still support Euden for Smash. His dragon transformation would be different from Corrin, since you need at least a half-full Dragon Meter to transform. If Euden isn't a fighter, I'd be happy with at least a Spirit Event (which I'm surprised hasn't happened yet, TBH).

Ayumi: 30%
Officer Howard: 30%
Ring Fit Trainee: 20%

Noms:
[Rerate] Dr. Eggman x2
[Rerate] Sora x3

 

[Cutie Gwen]

The geeatest fear of people who think Nintendo still act the same way they did in the 1980's

Chance: 15% I consider Saber a major darkhorse for a major reason, Fate itself as a franchise. This franchise has outsold Zelda and Godzilla, it's genuinely nuts despite not getting discussed too much. Maybe it's because it's mostly known as an anime but in truth, it started as a video game, a visual novel to be precise. The big pushback ignorant Smash fans have is about a gross overexaggeration of sex scenes in the original VN which completely misses how these were cut in every other version and how these aren't present in later games either, despite this people will act like Nintendo would refuse to be associated with this despite having funded Bayonetta 2, the marketing campaign of which had porn stars cosplay as Bayo herself and the most recent Nintendo owned character is from a game with a lot of sexual harassment directed at many characters including one who looks and acts like a literal child as jokes. "But what if a child found porn by googling this series?" Yeah not a problem as I had that happen with Pokemon, Sonic, Saint Nick and Ace Attorney, it's like saying we can't have Waluigi because Mario games have you eat mushrooms which in turn means Waluigi would be promoting drugs to children.

Want: 70% I wouldn't mind this at all, most of my experience is the Deen anime and osmosis through friends who hold the series near and dear

Euden morenlike JP-and-NTSCden

Chance: 0% Pop quiz! What is something Sakurai is concerned about in Smash so much so that he only broke said rule by complete accident? Worldwide popularity. Ness? The first game wasn't planned for a worldwide release. Marth and Roy? Planned to be cut but playtesters greatly enjoyed the characters which led to a change of heart. Lucas? Flatout didn't know Mother 3 would remain Japan only. Dragalia Lost has not and will not release in Europe due to gambling laws and Nintendo not wanting to risk needing to change the game specifically for Europe after making it, see how they didn't take down Mario Kart Tour or Fire Emblem Heroes in Heroes which were already released before the EU made laws about gambling. "Oh but what if you use a VPN?" You really think Nintendo will advertise a way to let them bypass laws? You have to be a complete ****ing idiot to think they can pull that stunt off without getting in trouble with the EU. "But what if they made a version that complied with EU laws?" It's been 3 years since the original got released yet there's not a single word about this, not that it'd happen as the entire point of gachas are to squeeze every single penny from gambling addicts, Euden is the poster boy for "He's owned by Nintendo therefore he's likely".

Want: 0% I have zero interest in playing gacha games, especially one that I'd need a VPN for and unlike the others we're rating today, Dragalia Lost doesn't have anything to make me care like an anime or the multiple fighting games with Arcsys and Capcom even getting involved, I couldn't care any less about this game.

GRAN blue fan TAJI

Chance: 20% Granblue is ****ing huge. It makes so much goddamn money and is immensely popular in Japan, with Granblue VS having high sales for a fighting game over there at launch. The big factor is Cygames, how well would they cooperate? The only potential issues involving them would be seen with PlatinumGames getting the boot from Re:Link, a game that's currently in development hell as it was announced in 2016 while currently having no release window beyond 2022, though it's speculated that either Platinum and Cygames disagreed on how the game should be handled as Platinum does focused combat but Cygames would want as many characters as possible due to the series' nature or Platinum ****ed up badly which adds up to the current rumours that Platinum's a mess internally. However, this is clearly an exception as they worked well with ArcSys for VS and as for Nintendo, well, Dragalia Lost also has Cygames involved, so Nintendo could easily contact and negotiate, only issue is if the gacha being hard to play worldwide is deemed that big of an issue despite the anime and fighting game being released worldwide

Want: 30% I'm sure Sakurai could make something fun but my exposure's the fighting game which while it does have some cool things, Gran and Djeeta themselves? Not that cool as they're the shotos of the game. I know there's a class change system which could add some truly nutty **** though and I'm very much willing to see that kind of stuff in Smash, though I'm also curious with characterization as Gran's characterized in spinoffs as the F2P player whereas Djeeta's the pay to win whale so she gets the overpowered stuff. It all kind of balances out in the end here for me albeit mostly on the negative side as though the ideas are cool, I'd hardly call this something I'd actively get excited for if that makes sense, merely go "Neat!" while hoping they're fun

Split noms between Junpei and Soma

 

[Lyncario]

"Imagine being into Gacha" -Some guy who is currently playing Touhou Lost Word

The one that Nintendo owns

Chance: 5%

Dragalia Lost is a game that Nintendo owns, and yet has no representation in Smash in any way. That's interesting. It's also not that they don't care about Dragalia Lost, they clearly do seeing how they made multiple crossovers with it to keep it going (from the top of my head, I remember that there were crossovers with Persona 5, Megaman, and Monster Hunter). It's just not in Smash, which is very weird. This basis alone makes so that Euden has some chances, but it's also nowhere near a guarantee. It's very possible that Nintendo wanted it in Smash, though it's also possible that Dragalia Lost would have been added earlier considering that there was an entire fighter pass before this one, but maybe Euden was just not as high on the priority list as the characters we got. But yeah, he got an undeniable chance. The one thing that really goes against him is that if I go on the google playstore and search Dragalia Lost, I will never find the game since it's unavailable on European playstores, to which I just want to ask why. No really, why is it unavailable on european playstores? It's just confusing at this point, traducting it and putting it on European playstores would just be more money for Nintendo, but they don't do it for some reason. Hell, even if they don't want to traduce it they could put it there in only english and still get money from it, but nope. Nintendo really confuses me sometimes.

Want: Abstain

Hey remember that bit about me not being able to play Dragalia Lost because I'm european? Yeah, that kinda kills the want I can have for Euden, since I couldn't get acess to it in any legal way, and while I could emulate it, emulating phones from another continent just to play one gacha game- wait, I have QooApp on my phone because Touhou Canonball and Touhou Lost World weren't acessible on european playstores at first. Huh, I guess that I could play Dragalia Lost in the end, but I'm already good for gachas with Touhou Lost World alone, so eh. I don't really care.

The ones that Nintendo sligthly owns

Chance: 3%

So fun fact about the developers of Granblue Fantasy, Cygames. They also make Dragalia Lost, and Nintendo owns 5% of the company. However, they don't own Granblue Fantasy like they own Dragalia Lost, and while getting the rights for characters from Granblue would very certainly be easy, Euden would still be easier and also a first party, which is a point against Gran and Djeeta compared to Euden. Now, something that they have over Euden is that Granblue Fantasy has a 24 Million playerbase, compared to a 3.2 Million player base for Dragalia Lost in 2020

List of most-played mobile games by player count - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Dragalia Lost Player Counts and Game Details | The Ultimate Game Guide

Updated for 2024. Everything you ever wanted to know about the video game Dragalia Lost. Get the latest player count, news, images, videos, fun facts and more.

videogamesstats.com

And even if I don't doubt that Dragalia Lost got more players since, I doubt that it would be 20 Million new players in less than a year.And having a way bigger playerbase is a point towards Granblue. However, it's also not available in Europe, which makes me think that it's more of a Cygames thing rather than Nintendo, but then again, Granblue vs is in europe, so i don't know for that one. But yeah, I feel that Djeen and Greeta are unlikely, even if plausible to an extant.

Want: Abstain

Hey, remember that bit for Euden about the game not being in europe and with how I laready have Touhou Lost Word as my full-time gacha makes me not care a lot about other gacha games even if I could get them with QooApp? Yeah, I kinda have the exact same opinion about Granblue, I just don't care enough about it to really have an opinion.

The one that has a link to Sony rather than Nintendo

Chance: 0.4%

So, Artoria (I'm going to refer to Saber with her actual name rather than her class name, to make it eaiser for me) got a couple problems. One of them is that her series, the Fate series, has more than one character that could represent it well, with very notably Shirou Emiya and GIlgamesh being very possible contenders for getting in Smash over her. While she is the mascot of the series and is also very popular and important, so are Shirou and Gilgamesh. One big thing that Gilgamesh has is that while Artoria is the app icon for Grand Order, the promotional anime for Grand Order was mainly about Gilgamesh

It kinda hurts your status as a mascot when the anime made about the game you're the icon of doesn't even feature you.

Now, for Shirou Emiya, he's the protagonist of the original Fate Stay Night visual novel (I will get to it a bit later), and while Artoria is his servant, she also happens to really only be that major in 1 of the 3 main routes of the visual novel, while taking a back-seat in the other 2. And those 2 routes happens to be the Unlimited Blade Works and Heaven's Feels route, which are the 2 routes the series is more known for thanks to them being the ones adapted by Ufotable rather than Deen Studios (who, fun fact, are the ones who make the Konosuba anime). So yeah, Shirou is the protagonist, and even has more apearance in the series than Artoria if you don't count alternate versions of Artoria in FGO as her having multiple apearance in the same media. And while you could say that a Fate fighter would have to be a servant, not only are the masters also fighting alongside the servants as if they're MegaTen protags rather than Pokemon trainers, but also, it is revealed in the Unlimited Blade Works route that the Archer servant participating in the same Holy Grail War as Shirou and Artoria is none other than Shirou from another future (refered as Emiya), and who also fights pretty much like Shirou since Shirou uses his power to replicate Emiya's swords, who themselves are replicated. So yeah, not much of a problem with Shirou getting in over a servant, actualy. And he's also in Grand Order as Muramasa. Technically.

Now, onto the fun point, which is the fact that the original visual novel is, and I quote wikipedia, " a Japanese adult visual novel". I'm not sure if I'm allowed to say it directly on Smashboards, but we all know what this means. But I think that it barely matters since in it's modern incarnation, the series moved on from that and while it still has alot of fanservice in Grand Order and questionable spin-offs, it more on the line of the censored version of the visual novel that was made for the PS2 a bit after the original.

Now for something that i feel actualy hurts the chances of a Fate character in geneal, the series is far more of an anime series than a video game series nowadays, and I mean that literaly, people know Fate for the UBW anime and HF movies, and while FGO is very popular, it's in part because of the anims. I feel like it actualy hurts the chances of a Fate character since they really are far more anime characters with video game spin-offs now, but for real, unlike what some Goku trolls say when they say that DB is also a video games series despite it not being one. Overall, I feel that the chances of a Fate character is around 1%, with Artoria taking most of it due to her popularity, though Shirou and GIlgamesh are contenders for that spot too, and undeniably so in my opinion.

Want: 60%

Artoria is cool, but I would far prefer it if Shirou or Gilgamesh was the Fate character instead of her. I don't hate her, but I like Shirou and Gil a lot more, that's all. I will also say that Fate is pretty much all about swords, especialy the archers, which is kinda hilarious, and indeed memed to hell and back. In fact, the entire Fate series is pretty much a meme with some very serious things hapening on the sidelines.

Nominations

Virtual idols like Miku x everything this got me

Prediction

Ayumi: 12.8%

Akira Howard: 3.3%

Ring Fit: 3.4%

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

The one thing that really goes against him is that if I go on the google playstore and search Dragalia Lost, I will never find the game since it's unavailable on European playstores, to which I just want to ask why. No really, why is it unavailable on european playstores? It's just confusing at this point, traducting it and putting it on European playstores would just be more money for Nintendo, but they don't do it for some reason. Hell, even if they don't want to traduce it they could put it there in only english and still get money from it, but nope. Nintendo really confuses me sometimes.

Gacha games are banned in Europe due to laws relating to lootboxes.

 

[jamesster445]

Saber
Chance: 20%
Want: 50%

Would Saber be more likely than Shirou (who is the bone of his sword)? Probably but that would mean that I dont get to have Unlimited Blade Works. I dont think either is likely but they are surprisingly eligible.


Euden
Chance: 50%
Want: 75%

Nintendo's first mobile exclusive character who happens to be an anime RPG sword fighter. Honestly he has the perfect blend of disappointment to be final Smash character. I however wouldn't be, so long as they do him right. I sincerely hope that they do his origins as a mobile character justice and blend it into his gameplay. If they dont, he kinda just becomes another sword fighter which is my big concern.

Granblue Twins
Chance: 40%
Want: abstain

With Euden I would imagine Cygames would get involved. They may decide they'd rather have their flagship series instead. I have no real investment either way. I dont know these characters or really care. I would imagine Gran would have The Timbs.

Nominations: Among Us Mii x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Saber

Chance: 5% - The Fate series, originally niche, became a big breakout success in Japan with the mobile game Fate Grand Order, and has an enormous continuous Japanese playerbase, along with a decent Western fanbase as well. A huge in Japan pick is what most are expecting for a final rep, so Saber's in a decent spot. She'd more than likely be the character chosen as well, providing they don't decide to shill Grand Order specifically with Mashu instead. Saber's been a major character in the franchise since its' roots, one of the "big three" servants in Fate Stay Night and continuing on as the franchise's mascot throughout its history. There are even several characters that (unnecessarily) clone their designs from her. She's basically the face of the franchise. However, the positives end there. Saber Artoria herself has become more and more in the background with time, while other, newer characters have taken the spotlight. Furthermore, the franchise's origins are in NSFW games, and Nintendo would likely want to keep away from that, especially since Sakurai has to talk about the franchise's history. Nintendo hasn't shown much interest in the franchise either. Fate Extella's on the Switch, but aside from that, Nintendo's made no effort to advertise it or promote the franchise. And with Nintendo choosing the characters that's not a good thing to have.

Want: 0% - No. Just no. You have no idea how much I despise this franchise. Where do we start? The designs for the series took a nosedive ever since that God forsaken mobile game became successful. And as someone who loves history, I HATE the way historical figures are designed and portrayed in this game. They're watered down to buzzword historical references and anime tropes, and the physical designs aren't much better. Leaders are waifutized left and right I mean how the F*** did they see someone like this and end up with a design like this?!), the designs are extremely lewd, and most of the characters (with the exception of Vlad the Impaler and Julius Caesar) look nothing like their historical counterparts. What's even the point? It bothers me whenever people criticize Nuclear Gandhi then defend this s***. Let's not forget the baggage! Back during my painful days in the Kancolle community, there was a lot of overlap with modern Fate, so I was exposed to an unhealthy amount of it through friends and enemies alike, and those are days I do NOT want to re-live. And don't even get me started on that got awful 4th of July event (I should've avoided Twitter that day), where I saw my country's history slowly torn apart by some smug waifu in a bikini. Absolutely disgusting... And don't forget the gacha!!! Because everyone LOVES PNG loot boxes, right?! Now, I'm not too hard on characters like Emiya, Mashu, Shirou and Rin, etc since since they're OCs and don't have the same baggage as most of the servants, but I'm just so done with the Fate series and I don't want to see anything of it in Smash. Now, it's be a LITTLE better if they just stuck to Stay Night and Zero, when the series was comparatively much more respectable.

... just barely....


Euden

Chance: 5% - Here's a golden boy plenty of people have been betting on as a contender for the final character. Nintendo's been doing a decent job promoting their mobile brand, though not as much as they used to. Something about Dragalia feels oddly separate from the rest of Nintendo's lineup. Now I personally think his chances are slim. These days Nintendo's really been about splitting/separating their brands, and the mobile brands seem to be no exception. We have yet to get any mobile-exclusive content in Smash beyond a random Fire Emblem Heroes song. Even in their other games, the mobile connection is little to none (though datamining suggest that there might be connectivity between Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and Tour, so that definitely helps Euden a bit), Nintendo hasn't been bringing mobile elements into their main series console games, and while Nintendo is expanding its' mobile market, it's limited to outside ads rather than in-game connections (Game Freak/TCPI is a different story, though). We haven't gotten any mobile-exclusive characters either, every character in Smash has appeared on gaming specific hardware at some point. Sounds kinda empty, I know, but my gut tells me that Nintendo isn't focused on cross promoting Dragalia Lost or other mobile IPs in their games, and there haven't been any plans to expand the Dragalia IP either. There's also another major blow, the fact that the game isn't even available worldwide. Nowhere to be seen South America, and banned from much of Europe due to anti-lootbox laws. Nintendo isn't going to want to promote a brand that a good chunk of their playerbase can't even play, which goes against the point of a promotional pick in the first place!

Want: 0% - This guy bores me. As much as I love dragons, this is not the way to end off Smash. Outside of his dragon transformations (which Corrin sorta covers, too), he's a pretty typical-looking JRPG-esque swordsman in an already anime-esque swordsman-filled DLC cycle. Furthermore, his game, in the end, is gacha. And while I appriciate the fact that it's extremely generous in comparison to other gachas like Fate and Granblue, but still, gacha is gacha. And that is not a genre that should be honored in Smash. Still, if we had to get a Cygames rep, I'd probably pick Dragalia over something like Granblue or Princess Connect, since it at least has a good Nintendo connection.

Speaking of which.....


Gran/Djeeta

Chance: 1% - And no, it's not because of Katalina, who was a leaker fad character anyway who had no ground to stand on. Granblue's a big gacha in Japan right now, with ongoing events and a healthy playerbase (as far as I'm aware). Furthermore, Nintendo now does have share in Cygames thanks to Dragalia. Gran and Djeeta, unlike Katalina, are basically the series' protagonists, and I really wouldn't expect them to get hit with a case of Springman. Though beyond that, Nintendo's done nothing to promote Granblue. While Granblue does have some console games, none are on Nintendo systems, nor has Nintendo made any effort to showcase the franchise. Interest from Nintendo is a key factor in getting a character in, and I don't see those priorities laying with a Granblue character. And if Nintendo did decide to thank Cygames with a character, they'd likely go with Dragalia instead, since its' their franchise. Same factor that kills KOS-MOS, there was no way Nintendo wouldn't choose Xenoblade 2 since they own the Xenoblade franchise. And as I said above I think Euden's unlikely, so that just makes things even worse for these protagonists.

Want: 0% - Remember how I mentioned that Fate was popular in the Kancolle community? Granblue was as well, and it was, of course, yet another unforgiving gacha. Like I said, this just isn't a genre that should be represented in a hall of fame for gaming, when their longevity is terrible and their method of monetization is extremely predatory. And the gameplay, from what I've seen, isn't too fun either. I've never liked pointless grinding in video games, and the grind game in Granblue is terrible. Does anybody really want that? So yeah, like all of the others, these two get a 0. I just can't find anything that I'd enjoy about Granblue joining Smash.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie xAll

Predictions:
Ayumi Tachibana - 15.02%
Ring Fit Trainer - 10.28%
Officer Howard - 9.54%

Ayumi hasn't gotten a spirit event and people are plugging her with second chance theory, so she's gonna do reasonably well. Meanwhile, Ring Fit and Officer Howard SHOULD be 0%, they're deconfirmed, and we've seen with first party characters that if you're in, you aren't getting a DLC spirit event. Still, I know a few of you are going to give them decent chance scores so I have to account for that.

While she is the mascot of the series and is also very popular and important, so are Shirou and Gilgamesh. One big thing that Gilgamesh has is that while Artoria is the app icon for Grand Order, the promotional anime for Grand Order was mainly about Gilgamesh

Even then, isn't Artoria still the overall mascot of the series? Even if Gil got the anime, I feel like Artoria would still come out on top. In a way, this kinda feels like Arle vs. Amitie. Arle's the original and big mascot, but Amitie was a main character that got priority for several years once SEGA got the franchise.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Want: 0% - No. Just no. You have no idea how much I despise this franchise. Where do we start? The designs for the series took a nosedive ever since that God forsaken mobile game became successful. And as someone who loves history, I HATE the way historical figures are designed and portrayed in this game. They're watered down to buzzword historical references and anime tropes, and the physical designs aren't much better. Leaders are waifutized left and right I mean how the F*** did they see someone like this and end up with a design like this?!), the designs are extremely lewd, and most of the characters (with the exception of Vlad the Impaler and Julius Caesar) look nothing like their historical counterparts. What's even the point? It bothers me whenever people criticize Nuclear Gandhi then defend this s***. Let's not forget the baggage! Back during my painful days in the Kancolle community, there was a lot of overlap with modern Fate, so I was exposed to an unhealthy amount of it through friends and enemies alike, and those are days I do NOT want to re-live. And don't even get me started on that got awful 4th of July event (I should've avoided Twitter that day), where I saw my country's history slowly torn apart by some smug waifu in a bikini. Absolutely disgusting... And don't forget the gacha!!! Because everyone LOVES PNG loot boxes, right?! Now, I'm not too hard on characters like Emiya, Mashu, Shirou and Rin, etc since since they're OCs and don't have the same baggage as most of the servants, but I'm just so done with the Fate series and I don't want to see anything of it in Smash. Now, it's be a LITTLE better if they just stuck to Stay Night and Zero, when the series was comparatively much more respectable.

... just barely....

First, wanted to let you know that one of those images isn't working. Second, aren't you taking this a little too seriously? Like, I get caring about historical accuracy, but I'd argue that the first game should've clued you in that that wasn't gonna be a big priority for the series...

 

[Commander_Alph]

Want: 0% - Remember how I mentioned that Fate was popular in the Kancolle community? Granblue was as well, and it was, of course, yet another unforgiving gacha. Like I said, this just isn't a genre that should be represented in a hall of fame for gaming, when their longevity is terrible and their method of monetization is extremely predatory. And the gameplay, from what I've seen, isn't too fun either. I've never liked pointless grinding in video games, and the grind game in Granblue is terrible. Does anybody really want that? So yeah, like all of the others, these two get a 0. I just can't find anything that I'd enjoy about Granblue joining Smash.

Let's not forget the baggage! Back during my painful days in the Kancolle community, there was a lot of overlap with modern Fate, so I was exposed to an unhealthy amount of it through friends and enemies alike, and those are days I do NOT want to re-live. And don't even get me started on that got awful 4th of July event (I should've avoided Twitter that day), where I saw my country's history slowly torn apart by some smug waifu in a bikini. Absolutely disgusting... And don't forget the gacha!!! Because everyone LOVES PNG loot boxes, right?! Now, I'm not too hard on characters like Emiya, Mashu, Shirou and Rin, etc since since they're OCs and don't have the same baggage as most of the servants, but I'm just so done with the Fate series and I don't want to see anything of it in Smash. Now, it's be a LITTLE better if they just stuck to Stay Night and Zero, when the series was comparatively much more respectable.

Never knew Kancolle effed you up this badly, I don't know if I should be mad since you constantly paint them as bad just because you are caught between the crossfire of the fandom or have a sympathy towards you.

Probably just me but I found Granblue's gacha system much more generous than Fate (or maybe I'm just lucky) still I'm not the type of person who just lash out and gatekeep game the same reason why I don't care if gaming company that has unpleasant track record gets represented.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

First, wanted to let you know that one of those images isn't working. Second, aren't you taking this a little too seriously? Like, I get caring about historical accuracy, but I'd argue that the first game should've clued you in that that wasn't gonna be a big priority for the series...

Here, lemme fix that.
And sorry to get so abrasive, that element of the franchise just hit a real sour spot for me. They could've tried much harder to make characters resemble their origins in some degree.

Probably just me but I found Granblue's gacha system much more generous than Fate (or maybe I'm just lucky) still I'm not the type of person who just lash out and gatekeep game the same reason why I don't care if gaming company that has unpleasant track record gets represented.

I guess it varies from person to person. I had a few friends who played Granblue and they complained a ton about the gacha and grind game. It really depends on how much luck you have.

And good point, considering I want a character from Nicalis. Still, gacha, like lootboxes, has had a very negative impact over the industry, so I just don't think that's the genre that should be represented in what's supposed to be a gaming hall of fame. Now, I'd be a little more open to a Fate rep if they pulled from just the earlier stuff like Fate Stay Night, but we all know that likely won't happen unless Sakurai has a heavy hand in that decision.

 

[Commander_Alph]

Here, lemme fix that.
And sorry to get so abrasive, that element of the franchise just hit a real sour spot for me. They could've tried much harder to make characters resemble their origins in some degree.

I mean most of them do but they do it in a more trivial way and not really surface level that basically turn into fan theory of some sort (i.e Jack is that way because of a conspiracy about the killer identity), I still give them credit by blindsided me with the depiction of Julius Caesar and Hans Anderson.

 

[cashregister9]

Saber
Want 100%

Chance 40%

Saber is currently my third most wanted, Fate is something that has been in my life just sorta browsing the internet, and Fate itself has so much character and is just a fun franchise. I think the chance is higher than I think due to how much a phenomenon Fate is, It was the most talked about game on Twitter in 2019 and has had so many damn crossovers and promotions that it has become this multimedia powerhouse in Japan (Take a look at this video about how much merchandise and events there are are related to fate Warning: suggestive themes and some light swearing), and it's not like the series is unpopular in the west either, Although it's mostly with the anime.

Gran/Djeeta
Want: 80%

Chance: 40%

Granblue is a franchise that is huge with 24 Million players and still gets consistent updates and is one of the highest grossing mobile games of all time and has expanded in to other games. Not to mention Nintendo and Cygames good relationship. Granblue is still relatively unknown in the west and that kills the chances of a Granblue character a lot but not entirely.

Euden
Want: 90%

Chance: 20%

Dragalia Lost is a really well done mobile game and my most wanted first party franchise, and it is developed by Cygames. Euden would just be a fun shapeshifting swordfighter, Unfortunately The lack of a release in most of the EU basically destroys the chances of this character, Terry and Hero while they might be more Japan-centric, you can at least access their games in the west.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

I mean most of them do but they do it in a more trivial way and not really surface level that basically turn into fan theory of some sort (i.e Jack is that way because of a conspiracy about the killer identity), I still give them credit by blindsided me with the depiction of Julius Caesar and Hans Anderson.

Julius is probably one of the most accurate-looking characters in the franchise, I could believe a fat Julius in a modern military coat would look like that.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Only here to drop a 20% want rating for Euden. On one hand, I’m sure he’d be unique and the game looks promising when it comes to deliveirng on a nice set. On the other hand I’m also European and while it’s not a disgrace, DL not being in Europe is a less compelling case. That’s just the way I see it (and no matter what you say, VPN is just a different and far from perfect way)

EDIT: Here’s a chance rating for Euden as well and its 12% with the comment that I’m moving away from a purely math-based number rating and more towards a feeling since its the last character and I’d hate for my highest possible rating to be a 20%. 12% “feels” right in the sense that, yes, Dragalia Lost is a missing link in the tapestry of Smash Ultimate and I’m not sure there are many series that can boast its absolute absence in this game. Still, its saving grace is Nintendo picking the fighters and lining him up for the cynical shill slot (since Sakurai only accidentally adds regionlocks characters and has shot down regionlocked characters multiple times for that reason). Still, a regionlock doesn’t bode well when your saving grace is marketability. As far as the lack of Spirits goes, The Warriors cross-overs and Fire Emblem Heroes don’t have Spirits either and with the sort of continuing updating model of mobile games it’s possible it slipped through the cracks between there being no definitive release date to attach a Spirit Event to. Luigi’s Mansion 3 is also another suspicious absence and there‘s an abundance of series only repped through one Spirit, as well as characters that are missing entirely. For the base game and first round of DLC, that might’ve been suspicious, but we’re at the end of pass 2 now and being a slightly meatier fish in the sea of Porky, Sylux and King Boo does not a likely character make.

Nominations go to Off The Hook.

 

[fogbadge]

DL is not in mainland europe i think youll find

anyway, prince complex back story

chances: hmm im gonna go with 10%. not cause hes not had a world wide release, i find it hard to believe to sakurai actually cares, but because hes avoiding mobiles games in general. nintendo has made many a mobile game but the only one with any stuff is the one from the series we all know sakurai has a thing for. not even pokemon go which TPC still pushes. makes me think hes not a fan of mobile games which makes me wonder how hed react to a kirby mobile game. and while i can believe nintendo have suggested characters from all their IPs i just dont think sakurai will do it. not cause hes not out in europe, thats not a problem for him or cause there are "too many" sword fighters, if he actually thought that he could have stopped at any point.

want: 90% i do like him and would find him a more welcome addition that a lot of the other dlc characters. between his two versions and his shapeshifting powers would lend itself to a unique moveset. saying that he would be similar to corrin cause they can both turn into dragons is a bit like saying link would play similar to mario cause they both wear hats. granted DL is rather simplistic and would have probably fared better if it was on a console but sakurai's no stranger to taking creative liberties in smash so that wouldnt be a problem. i think hed be a nice way to round off the pass may not exactly be the most hype character but the hate he'll get i imagine will be smaller than byleth.

abstain on the other two and all noms go to spirit events continue after pass

 

[GoodGrief741]

Well if there's one thing to say for today's batch of characters is that any of them would easily go down as the worst final character in Smash history so they have that going for them.

Gacha

Chance: 0%

So, Granblue Fantasy. One of the biggest gachas out there. Developed by Cygames which Nintendo owns a stake in. And apparently that's all it takes to get seriously considered for Smash.

First off: Nintendo owning a stake in Cygames means very little. They don't own a majority stake or anything, they've just invested in the company. That happens all the time. So it's not like this makes Granblue a second party title or anything. It's certainly not a game Nintendo has any interest in promoting, and its spin-offs aren't on the Switch. Think about it: a franchise that has zero games on Nintendo hardware. That's a massive hurdle for any franchise to surpass, and we're dealing with small fry here.

But let's see, what is Granblue's claim to fame? Well, it's a successful gacha... and that's it. It's not acclaimed or influencial or iconic or important in any aspect, it just came in, grabbed its cash and carried on. I'm not even sure if it's still a big deal or if people just moved on to, like, that one that ripped off BotW (can't remember the name). If Nintendo wanted a character to represent gacha (which is already a big if) I think they'd go with the one they created.

Want: 0%
Gacha is unethical!

Gacha with Nintendo

Chance: 5%
On one hand, Dragalia Lost is a Nintendo product. A pretty successful one at that. And it has suspiciously no representation in Ultimate even when we know they considered mobile games (at least enough to get that godawful Fire Emblem track in).

On the other hand, it's still anyone's guess whether Nintendo gives a **** about their mobile initiative. It becomes more and more apparent that they only did it to appease investors during a rough period for the company and it looks like they aren't making any more games. But still, exposure is exposure and money is money and DL seems to be bringing in the latter. The question remains: are they going to do anything with the IP? Or are they content leaving it to do its thing?

In the end I think the legal issues are going to be the death of Euden and he'll just go home empty handed. Nintendo's gotta be very wary of being seen as promoting gambling and anything that leads people down the rabbit hole of finding out why Europeans can't play DL, well, that can't be good PR.

Gacha with porn

Just gonna quote my last rating for Saber (which quoted my rating for Nero) because this franchise isn't worth any effort. Scores are both 0%

I've been dreading this day for a while.

I guess to give context and also to avoid repeating myself I'll start by quoting myself from the last time we rated a Fate character.

Woo boy I’ve been dreading this day

The guy that burnt Rome, now in waifu form!

Chance: 0%
If a Fate character gets in, it’s Saber. And not Red Saber, the one people know. There might be arguments for other characters to get in, but not any Saber before the Saber. Fate in Smash alone is something I don’t find likely at all, so this doesn’t even earn my obligatory post-Piranha Plant 1%.

Want: 0%
I don’t want Fate in Smash. I would hate Fate in Smash. Fate in Smash is to be on the level of Minecraft in Smash. There are several reasons as to why. Maybe it’s because of the H-game origin. Maybe it’s because I think it’s claim to fame isn’t videogames, but rather anime (like Digimon). Maybe it’s because I heavily associate Fate with gacha games, which are slowly but surely killing the industry. Maybe it’s because I’m severely uncomfortable with the tendency to play fast and loose with history, including but not limited to: turning real-life people into waifus, lolis and traps, and butchering several mythologies. Fate just makes me uncomfortable and I’d rather stay as far away from it as possible.

Heh, January me had been dreading that day as well.

So, what's changed, what's stayed the same, and what's different between Blue Saber and Red Saber?

Since then I guess you could say Smash has reaffirmed itself as a "everything-goes-as-long-as-it's-a-videogame" crossover, at least for the time being. So the argument could be made that Fate could be included despite its obscurity outside Japan on the back of its massive Japanese popularity. I disagree, though. We haven't really reached this point yet, at least.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Fate Grand Order fallen out of popularity relative to Granblue Fantasy? This is hearsay, so don't take my word as fact, but I definitely heard this somewhere. Probably from an irl friend who is an uber-fan of the franchise.

There's also the additional fact that Fate Grand Order (the most popular game and really the only reason we're even debating this right now) is published by a Sony subsidiary. This isn't something new, but I hadn't mentioned it before, and how much this would affect Smash chances is up for debate (the IP is still in the firm hands of type moon and Sega even got to do an arcade version of Grand Order).

Obviously the biggest difference is that Saber is kind of the face of the franchise so she definitely beats Nero and probably any other character when it comes to chances.

As for what stays the same... I really don't think Nintendo's going for this. We're talking about a series that started as hentai games, guys. This is a franchise whose claims to fame are anime and gacha games. It's not a gaming titan; it's barely a game to begin with. If they wanted to rep visual novels, there are better candidates. I doubt Nintendo would rep it over other gachas - like the one it owns (FE Heroes) or the other one it owns (Dragalia Lost) or even the one owned by a company it partly owns (****ing Granblue Fantasy again). And if they wanted to rep H-games... Well you got me there, but it wouldn't happen.

As for want: beyond the moral reason why I don't want to pretend gacha games are anything but exploitative, predatory bull**** ruining the industry and people's lives... Fate really makes me uncomfortable. I've mentioned why before, pretty much. I'm sorry if this offends any fans, but... yeah. I don't think Fate deserves to be in Smash, but also I don't want it there, pure and simple. I hope when I die people don't turn me into an anime person and objectify me for cash; to be honest I feel like that's one of the biggest disservices you could do to a person.

I figured I'd end this rating with a quote by @ProfPeanut that always stuck with me.

Behold the amorality of historical revisionism. Behold its flagrant complicity in Japan's never-ending hunger for waifus.

(Oh yeah scores are 0%)

Kyle Hyde prediction: Oh boy I guess I gotta write that big post! C'mon guys, give him a chance! (Yeah 0.9%)

Noms: Prince of Persia x5

Noms go to Giygas
Ayumi prediction: 26.74%
Howard prediction: 4.56%
Ring Fit prediction: 2.15%

 

[Commander_Alph]

Might as well rate them since I'm here, abstaining on Euden.


Saber — 20%
Fate is a huge multimedia franchise (shocker, I know) but what makes her or even other character in the series is how little their contribution to the gaming world, yes I know FGO exist but I always see them as Type-Moon very own funding machine to pay Ufotable to create stellar animation and remake of their old property in the future (see Tsukihime & Melty Blood), she just barely misses the bus if it weren't for Stay Night which I've still see people argue about it being called an eroge because their wiki said so, after skimming over them of course makes them ineligible when new releases omitted them from this planet and has been backing away from that industry only to be brought up again because I guess people can't move on.

Want — 9%
Saber is the basic of character even by Fate standard and even by the anime community, I've seen more people interested in Tohsaka Rin and Matou Sakura more if we're limiting to just F/SN and I haven't even mentioned the male characters yet in which I'm on that camp too, heck I prefer Shiro more honestly and I haven't had the time to wrap around her origin story. She could have an interesting moveset but as I stated again she's very basic and would prefer switch her with Shirou due to him having different weapon but considering people always point at the mascot I guess we're going the normal ending. But hey, I could guarantee that if Fate were to get in I'm betting Sakurai will focus more on Stay Night more considering it is the series origin, being considered the main timeline and still is the golden goose of the entire series with the anime making their name for themselves and countless spin-off focusing on that entry alone.



Gran/Djeeta — 30%
Cygames is probably the company that is on top of the mobile gaming genre in Japan with Granblue being the most successful and biggest one of them all, one argument that I here is that Europe really need that piece of action or else they wouldn't be invited to the party but luckily VS is here to make their grand entrance and from what I've seen the average crowd knowledge of Granblue started and ended on the Arcsys game itself which is good still didn't advertise the game well enough to pull in the average gamer to the mobile game, not even the bonus reward will get them to play it since I know gacha game is not that beginner friendly.

Want — 50%
I'm neutral toward both of them, I don't really, have a favorite character yet in the game even after playing it and that includes the main story character, but I still can appreciate their moveset gimmick even if coming up for one takes much more time.

Noms: Arcueid all

Additional note; I'm not really a gacha guy but I don't really like shouting "gacha game ruining the industry!" When that industry your talking about is f2p mobile game and won't affect the console industry anytime soon or better yet straight off dissing on them, this is less worst than what EA has been normalizing by having you pay for content to a game that you bought at full price.. and it work! at least I got my character with unique ability and personality rather than an accessory or a skin (double standard?)

 

[GoodGrief741]

When that industry your talking about is f2p mobile game and won't affect the console industry anytime soon or better yet straight off dissing on them, this is less worst than what EA has been normalizing

And where might EA have gotten that idea? Like it or not business models that are successful in mobile can and do bleed into the console and PC landscapes.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Oops double post

Spoiler: Nominations post-Demi-Fiend/Nahobino pre-Saber/Euden/Gran/Djeeta

Octoling x438
[Rerate] Louie x435
Mii Costume: 2B x395
Pyramid Head x375
Junpei (Zero Escape) x307
Meat Boy x305
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x295
Corvo Attano x295

300 - 251

Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x285
Tetra x260
Senator Armstrong x260

250 - 201

Ori x230
Gunvolt x225

200 - 151

Stage: Bowser's Castle x192
Ratchet & Clank x190
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Tails x185
Boss: Rayquaza x185
Kaede Akamatsu x180
[Rerate] Kiryu x165

150 - 101

Echo (Bowser) x148
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x138
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Boss: Ender Dragon x133
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x130
Stage: Tetris x120
D.Va x115
Fulgore x112
[Rerate] Gene x110
Giygas x110
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105

100 - 51

Legends Trainer x90
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Soma Cruz x78
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x75
[Rerate] Eggman x69
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55
Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
[Rerate] Sora x41
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
E.M.M.I. x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
Lugia x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
Off The Hook x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Omori x10
DJ Octavio x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Firebrand x1

Junpei betrays Meat Boy and takes fifth place from him (quite an appropriate place for Junpei to be in). Corvo Attano sneaks into the top 7, tied with Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku for last place.

Senator Armstrong collects 250 noms.

Kiryu punches past 150 noms.

Giygas warps past 100 noms.

Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass continues past 50 noms.

Using two hour rule to abstain from Demi Lovato and Nhbnooo.
Noms: DJ Octavio x however many I earned

Does this include extra noms?

 

[Idon]

Today's new concept is Something Idon Idon actually wants, with 5 noms. Here's rooting for ya buddy.

Wait hold on,

 

[GoodGrief741]

Wait hold on,

I thought it'd be funny but it turns out it's not allowed anyway.

 

[Sari]

Abstaining on Saber and Gran.

-----

Euden

Chance: 1%
Dragalia Lost has grossed a lot of money (+150 million in fact!) and is a new shiny Nintendo IP with a fair amount of relevancy... sadly that is where I have to end the positives.

The main issue here is that Dragalia Lost isn't available in Europe (outside of the UK and Ireland I think?). I could see this not being much of an issue for base game, but for paid DLC? Yeah they're not going to release a paid character whose game wouldn't even be available there, and to an extent would be a literal who in one of their main regions of revenue.

We also know that in June 2020 (well after FP2 was decided on), Nintendo stated that they would be slowing down their mobile gaming business. Now if Euden really was going to be in this pass, why would Nintendo say that? Wouldn't Euden being playable be a sign that Nintendo wants to make their mobile market grow even further? The answer can't be "they just said it so Euden is a surprise" since that was a business related announcement and they're not going to make a lie like that just for a surprise Smash reveal. I feel like Euden would be the perfect character to make both Dragalia Lost and Nintendo's mobile games as a whole bigger than ever, so for Nintendo to say that they're dwindling down their mobile efforts makes me think Euden really isn't happening.

Yes I'm well aware they are making a Pikmin mobile game, but that seems like a more small project as opposed to a giant game like Fire Emblem Heroes which further supports Nintendo's statement. Plus even if Nintendo did have a change of heart right now and pumped everything they had into the mobile market, their earlier statement during FP2 essentially sealed Euden's chances for FP2 to me.

I'm not sure where the Dragalia Lost series is headed with countries acting tougher on things like loot boxes. If Euden wants to have better Smash chances in the future (he just screams assist trophy right now), I feel like the series should make the move to Nintendo systems. Because right now, Euden is sailing high on a wooden raft that could break any second now.

Want: 10%
I haven't gotten into Dragalia Lost, both because my phone can't run the game and DBZ: Dokkan Battle is already enough for me in terms of gachas. Euden doesn't seem like a bad character, but at the same time he doesn't really seem like a character that would interest me a lot either. Him being the final character and essentially acting as a shill pick for a gacha would also leave me feeling sour. In general, I'm against gacha games getting a playable character since I don't really think it's something that should be awarded. Bring the series to non-phone platforms, give it some more time, and then we'll talk.

-----

Chance predictions:

• Ayumi: 17.00% (expecting a ton of overrates)
• Officer Howard: 5.00%
• Ring Fit: 10.00%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: 2B x20

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Everywhere but EU-den
Chance: 0.5%
The game isn't available in most of Europe and since Nintendo has annouced that mobile gaming won't be made much of an priority anymore, they won't go through all hoops to change that. Selling a DLC character from a game a huge chunk of their player-base does not have access to sounds like a pretty dumb move on their part. Could you imagine Sakurai in a presentation telling the audience "Dragalia Lost is available free to start on mobile devices... unless you live in the EU lmaoooo"? We know worldwide access for a game is important to him when choosing characters. If they wanted to end the pass of with a character Nintendo owned, there are more universable characters out there. Characters that not only would be more popular and well received for not being gacha but also promoting things not part of a market Nintendo's letting go.

Want: 0%
I literally couldn't play this even if I wanted to, which I don't. I'm not much of a mobile gamer and I'm especially not dipping my toes in anything gacha related. Yeah, not my first pick to end Ultimate on. Boy looks pretty bland I must say. He transforms into a Dragon? Pffft, we already have worst character for that.

I GACHA!
Chance: 0%
Owning stock in Granblue a Smash character does not make. The IP has no connections to Nintendo next to that and investing in franchises just sounds like a pretty standard thing for a company to do. These two characters look very standard as well and nobody's really asking for them to be added anyway. Last I checked, the Smash and Granblue audiences don't seem like they would overlap much.

Want: 0%
Lol gacha. Also going by the artwork they just seem like very bland swordies that wouldn't even get Fire Emblem fans jumping out of their seat.

Epic Anime Rap Battles of History
Chance: 0.5%
They'd have a dilemma right here. Fate is famous for its anime and gacha cashgrabber than its actual games. Those games happen to be NSFW so they'd probably avoid referencing them but if they'd base the representation on the anime or the gacha it wouldn't really be about video games anymore would it? Yeah, I've heard there are versions that remove the eroge elements but I see Nintendo rather dancing around the risk of adding Fate altogether. The franchise may rake in billions of dollars but that won't translate in billions of Fighter pass vol 2 being sold.

Want: 0%
This series has slim connections to Nintendo, started out as an Eroge VN and is more known for its anime and gacha than the games. All reasons enough for me to think it doesn't really belong in Smash. If I wanted Sakurai to represent parodies of historical figures, I'd sooner be asking for Clone High.

Ayumi: 13.20%
Officer Howard: 4.12%
Ring Fit: 11.75%
Bandana Dee x20