Non-White/Asian Human Character
Want: N/A
OH BOY, HERE WE GO
Gonna do the want score first to get it out of the way.
It's extremely difficult to give a score to something like this. Score it too high and you just sound silly. Score too low and you get accused of things. Personally, I wouldn't want a character added in solely BECAUSE they're black (I don't care at all about gender/race representation in a game like this) or for the sake of a political movement. But at the same time I wouldn't want a character to be EXCLUDED because they're black either, that would be horrible reasoning to leave a character out. When it comes to characters, there's picks that quickly come to mind like Shantae (a character no doubt MANY people will flock to for their rating), but I personally wouldn't want her since she's competition for Quote, one of my most wanted (though I wouldn't be upset if she got in, I would be disappointed if an indie I have no experience with got priority over a historical indie I adore). So my reasons for not wanting her are completely unrelated to her race. As for the opposite, I have plenty of Non-White/Asian characters I'd love to see but they're unlikely for one reason or another, such as Kiawe (Sun and Moon has long passed, and Pokemon reps focus on the Pokemon themselves), Preston Garvey (Fallout's out due to Vault Boy Costume, plus my preference goes to an Elder Scrolls rep), or a Civilization series leader like Gandhi or Askia (based upon and designed to resemble real, if historical, people). I want to see them because I like the characters and they have great merits, regardless of their race! Then there's other candidates like, say Doc Louis. I think he's more than earned a spot in Smash and I'd be perfectly fine with his inclusion, but at the same time I don't care enough about Punch-Out to actively campaign for the inclusion of a second rep. Same goes for a character like Rodin. He'd be a cool addition (in fact I think he'd be much more interesting than a Jeanne echo) but I don't care enough about Bayonetta to rally for a second rep, and for assist trophy promotions I'd much rather see Waluigi.
All of that together makes it extremely difficult to give a rating to this concept, and hopefully people don't slam me over this.
And now for something special for this concept's chance score!
Before we begin, as an overall note I will mention that Japan has an almost nonexistent black population and is overall a very homogeneous country population-wise, so racial diversity isn't nearly as common as it is in Western games, and thus there aren't a lot of black characters in Japanese media outside of Pokemon (Basquach's Miyuki Ayukawa, despite having a Japanese name, is the only non-Pokemon/Punch Out/Bayonetta black character from Japanese media that I can name off of the top of my head). As a result, this automatically lowers the overall chances since there's a much smaller pool of characters to choose from. Japan loves its' dark-skinned Asians, but they're still Asians (and most of them more than likely aren't Indian) so they don't count.
Now, as for the chance score, we're going to go through many franchises, all of the ones already in Smash and many that have the potential to be, and see which applicable characters (any Non-White/Asians) they have and their chances of getting in, along with the overall score at the end. Let's do this!
Franchises already in Smash:
Mario: Very few human characters, most of which are already in Smash. New Donk City has some black citizens as NPCs but none of them are named and I don't think they'd be chosen over someone like Pauline herself. Also all non-DK Marioverse characters in this. Wario Land/WarioWare both have more humans but none of them fit the bill.
Donkey Kong: Donkey Kong's games have no humans, so no candidates here. Banjo-Kazooie has Humba Wumba (who's more than likely Native American), but the chances of us getting a second Banjo rep are slim to none.
Legend of Zelda: Zelda has a decent amount of dark-skinned characters due to the Gerudo's existence. Nabooru is a notable choice, and we already have her superior, Ganondorf himself, already in the game. She's certainly possible but I don't see a ton of fan demand for her. There's also Urbosa, who has recency points due to being from Breath of the Wild, but all of the champions are equals so I don't think she'd get in by herself. Overall a positive but still coin toss chance!
Sonic the Hedgehog: In a way, Knuckles (dreadlocks, Adventure-era Knuckles has hip hop/rap as his theme music and classic Knuckles is heavily associated with Michael Jackson's style), but he isn't a human so he doesn't count towards the concept. Mazuri from Sonic Unleashed has black NPCs but someone like them getting in over Eggman or Tails just isn't happening.
Kirby: Very few humans, so there aren't any suitable candidates (unless I'm forgetting someone).
Star Fox: No human characters, so there are no suitable candidates.
Pokemon: Quite a large amount of candidates actually! Lenora, Grant, Kiawe, Olivia, there are plenty to choose from! Their problem, though, is that their respective generations have passed and unless it's a Gen 1 veteran there's usually no going back to previous generations when looking for Smash reps. For Gen 8 there's Raihan and Nessa, both overcoming this hurdle. But they still have to overcome the second hurdle which is the fact that Pokemon reps typically focus on the Pokemon themselves instead of the humans (though in Kiawe's case, if you wanted to base his team off his anime team he already has a Charizard, so that'd certainly save development time).
Animal Crossing: Player characters are the only humans and there's already dark-skinned alts for Villager so this won't be possible.
Splatoon: Dark-skinned inklings are already among Inkling's alts. Marina's a good candidate, but with Splatoon costumes already appearing in the pass (and the more popular Callie and Marie were already passed up), I don't see Marina as a likely choice, even with Octo Expansion existing.
Metroid: Anthony Higgs, though he faces competition from more requested characters like Sylux along with Metroid's general lack of popularity in Japan. Plus we got two new Metroid characters this game so I don't see us getting more in the second fighter's pass.
Kid Icarus: Not much in the way of suitable candidates, and someone like Medusa or Hades would more than likely take priority.
Punch-Out: Now THIS is the series to look to for this concept! A very diverse set of characters and two black characters playing major roles, second to only Little Mac himself. While it'd be impossible to use Mike Tyson (and most Punch-Out content pulls from the remake anyway) we have both Doc Louis and Mr. Sandman, Little Mac's mentor and the circuit champion respectively. The latter especially, given that he has tons of moves to pull from, serves the role of a Punch-Out antagonist, and is one of the most well-known opponents outside of Glass Joe (granted he wasn't champion in the original, but he still has legacy). And aside from them, there's plenty of other fun options like Great Tiger, who could mix magic in with boxing for something fun and unique!
There's two main issues for each that prevent me from rating them higher, though. For Doc Louis, it's his role as a master spirit. Yes, spirits no longer deconfirm, but Doc Louis' plays a very special role and even runs a facility, so I don't know if they'd want to mess with that. Sandman may have to contend with Super Macho Man if they want to represent Super Punch Out instead, and Super Macho Man was the champion in that game instead (and he has a legend spirit while Sandman only has an ace). The second is Punch-Out's general lack of popularity in Japan (some fans there even complained about Little Mac) so I don't think they'll be grabbing a second rep this game, especially as DLC.
Pikmin: No suitable candidates, the Hocotatians and Koppaites are human-like but none of them have dark skin.
F-Zero: Baba, Kate Alen, and Michael Chain are all good candidates, but none of them have spirits, so the Smash team more than likely doesn't see them as a priority. Furthermore, F-Zero is a dormant franchise, and if it did get a second rep, someone like Samurai Goroh (who's been in before as an assist trophy) or Black Shadow or Blood Falcon would take priority.
Earthbound: I've never played the games but I'm sure there's a decent amount of Black NPCs. But I don't see one of them getting priority over someone like Porky, Paula, Poo, or Jeff anyway. And Earthbound is a dormant franchise so it getting another rep at all is slim.
Retro Characters (Ice Climbers/Duck Hunt/Game and Watch/ROB): No suitable candidates. Game and Watch did have a Native American look in one of his poses but it was removed due to the negative implications of the reference.
Fire Emblem: Too many characters to really go through but I haven't seen much in the way of black characters, especially among those who'd even be likely. Plus a new rep would more than likely be a new protagonist to shill a new game anyway.
Xenoblade: Vandham has grey skin so it's difficult to tell for him, and Elma more than likely doesn't count . Any other potential candidates more than likely wouldn't make it in over someone like Rex or Melia anyway.
Wii Fit: No suitable candidates.
ARMS: Misango and Twintelle, though we JUST got an ARMS character DLC pack and in a future title they have characters like Spring Man and Ribbon Girl to contend with. I don't see Nintendo double-dipping on ARMS.
Metal Gear Solid: Has a fair amount of Black characters, though given the troubles regarding Konami and Metal Gear, along with there being bigger characters in the franchise (who WERE chosen for spirits) I don't see this happening any time soon.
Pac Man: No suitable candidates.
Mega Man: I don't know much about Mega Man subseries, but as far as I'm aware there aren't really any candidates to choose from. Block Man from Mega Man 11 has a black VA (I've met him actually!) but I don't think that counts.
Street Fighter: Another good franchise for candidates! We have characters like Balrog, Sagat, and Dhalsim who fit the bill perfectly. Though we already got Ken this game so it depends on whether or not Capcom wants to do more Street Fighter, and even then there's competition with Chun-Li (who's more iconic) and M. Bison (an extremely notable villain).
Castlevania: As far as I can tell, there aren't any major characters who fit the bill. Plus Castlevania probably won't get a DLC pack due to the amount of content it got on the base game, and next game any potential candidates have Alucard to worry about.
Bayonetta: Rodin immediately comes to mind, being a legend spirit and chosen as an assist trophy to further represent the series. Though he may have to wait until next game, since even if we get assist trophies I don't think the developers would choose him over Waluigi or Isaac. Though since Nintendo now has exclusivity over the franchise and Bayonetta 3 will more than likely be out by the time we get another Smash game, Rodin has a good chance there.
Final Fantasy: Barett Wallace and Sazh Katzroy come to mind, though they aren't requested and more than likely wouldn't be chosen over the main characters of their respective games (despite Cloud already being in, Barett has characters like Tifa and Sephiroth to contend with, and even those two are unlikely for the pass due to an inability to provide spirits). Still always a headache to get rights for and it was hard enough to get Cloud back, plus due to the lack of spirit art I don't see us getting another Final Fantasy character as DLC.
Dragon Quest: Mahabala Twins, who are Arabic, though one of them would be too risque for Smash (she's a dancer with a very revealing outfit, who'd more than likely get slammed with what happened to Mai), though Meena being a playable character in 4 definitely gives her a boost. Though considering Dragon Quest got a big DLC pack last pass, I don't think Square Enix and Nintendo would double dip.
Persona: Aside from Masao Inaba in his Revelations appearance, there aren't any suitable candidates, plus I doubt we're gonna get Persona double dipping.
Fatal Fury/King of Fighters: Heavy D! comes to mind, being part of the American Sports Team. Though with all of the content SNK's fighting games got in Terry's pack, along with competition with Iori and Kyo in a future Smash game, chances don't look huge for him.
Franchises that could get into Smash:
Franchises listed in red are deconfirmed for various reasons
Bandai Namco:
Tekken: Leroy Smith and Tiger Jackson come to mind, though Tekken's already deconfirmed with Heihachi's Mii costume, and Sakurai considered Heihachi himself to represent Tekken. Namco also uses Heihachi in all of their crossovers, and after him there's characters like Jin Kazama and more who are much more iconic, so competition is a huge issue.
Tales of: No real suitable candidates (though as a JRPG series with a lot of characters it's hard to go through everyone), but even then, competition with Lloyd and Yuri, along with the potential of Lloyd's mii costume coming back definitely make it difficult regardless.
Katamari Damacy: No suitable candidates, Lalala is tan and the only Dark-skinned cousin (who looks like she's intended to be black) is an unnamed cousin from the South-Korea exclusive Katamari Online, and Namco doesn't acknowledge any of that game's original characters.
Soul Calibur: Zasalamel, though he isn't a series staple like much of his competition, so despite Soul Calibur having an "ensemble cast" they'd more than likely choose Nightmare, being the face of the franchise.
Dark Souls: Chosen Undead can be customized to be black, though outside of a potential alt (Chosen Undead's face is covered anyway) there's no suitable candidates.
Taiko no Tatsujin: All of the human characters (the Wadas and Hana Takahashi) are Japanese.
Idolm@ster: Natalia, who's Brazilian. Unique but not a series icon like Haruka is, so her main issue is competition.
SEGA:
Super Monkey Ball: The cast is entirely monkeys, so no suitable candidates here.
Jet Set Radio: DJ Professor K. though suffers from competition from characters like Beat, Gum, and Tab due to the latter three being playable characters.
Samba de Amigo: Linda, who kinda counts (she's a fairy) and is Hispanic, though I doubt she'd get in over Samba himself.
Puyo Puyo: No suitable candidates (feel free to correct me on this), though they more than likely wouldn't get in over Arle or Amitie anyway.
Yakuza: Mitsuo, who's half African-American. Though main character Kiryu isn't in the game so I don't see Mitsuo happening.
Streets of Rage: Adam Hunter, one of the game's playable characters. Though competition with Axel Stone is a problem, it's still even chances between them.
Capcom:
Devil May Cry: J.D. Morrison, though with Dante himself not in yet I don't see this happening.
Resident Evil: Sheva Alomar, who's half black, though Jill Valentine, Leon Kennedy, and the Redfields are both more iconic and more significant to the franchise as a whole. Plus their franchise was deconfirmed via spirit event anyway.
Ace Attorney: Jeff Masters and Olivia Aldente, though with face of the franchise Phoenix Wright not yet in, along with other playable characters like Miles Edgeworth and Apollo Justice, things look impossible for them.
Square Enix:
Kingdom Hearts: No suitable candidates outside of Disney. Plus they more than likely wouldn't get priority over Sora.
Tomb Raider: No suitable candidates, can't imagine them getting picked over Lara herself.
Bravely: No suitable candidates.
Gex: Most of Gex's characters are animals or cyborgs, no suitable candidates. Plus why would they get in over Gex himself?
Deus Ex: No suitable candidates, though Deus Ex itself isn't likely anyway.
Bethesda:
The Elder Scrolls: Not counting Elves/Argonians/Khajiit, there's multiple Redguard (African/Moorish mix, Elder Scrolls equivalent to black) major characters, from Baurus and Owyn in Oblivion to Cyrus in TES Adventures: Redguard. There's also Nazeem if you wanna be funny and Isran in Skyrim's Dawnguard questline. However, despite Cyrus being a protagonist, I doubt we'd see him over the others over someone like the Nerevarine (Morrowind), Hero of Kvatch (Oblivion), or The Last Dragonborn (Skyrim), especially the latter. One of the playable characters, though would more than likely have a Redguard alt if they decide to make the alts different races!
Fallout: Being set in the United States, Fallout has plenty of black characters. The one that comes to mind first and foremost is Preston Garvey, a major character in Fallout 4 and one of the major figures in The Minutemen. The protagonist characters can also be customized to be black, and could potentially have that as alts. Deconfirmed by Vault Boy's Mii Costume.
Doom: No suitable candidates. Deconfirmed via interview.
Activision-Blizzard:
Crash Bandicoot: Papu Papu is clearly supposed to be kind of Papua New Guinea-esque, but despite being a notable boss I don't see him getting in over Crash himself.
Spyro the Dragon: Most of the characters are animals. No suitable candidates.
Overwatch: Lucio immidiately comes to mind, and given the game's ensamble cast he has a good shot of being chosen. He's been in the game since the beginning and has lots of unique attacks. Symmetra (Indian), Pharah (Egyptian), Sombra (Mexican) and Roadhog (Polynesian) also exist but aren't quite as popular. There's also Doomfist, who I often see presented as alternative choice to Tracer, and is very significant to the game's lore. It really depends on both Overwatch actually getting a rep (that Reddit AMA by Overwatch's director asking who they'd want to see in Smash could be a killing blow), and if so if they'd go with Tracer or view it the same way as ARMS.
Warcraft: Warcraft didn't add Black/Asian player options until recently, and given there are no specific NPCs that are Black/Asian (as far as I know) I don't see any suitable candidates. Plus Thrall exists.
2K Games:
Sid Meier's Civilization: TONS of choices to choose from! Though Gandhi and Shaka Zulu immidiately come to mind. Gandhi, via a programming error in Civ 1, ended up coming to be essentially an unofficial mascot for the franchise and has appeared in every game. There's also Shaka Zulu, who's something of a second mascot for the series and has also appeared in every game. Plus with two main series games (Civ 1 SNES and Civ 6 Switch) along with a spinoff (Civ Rev DS) on Nintendo systems, it has more history under its' belt than most picks. The big hurdle for these two is whether or not being based on real people is a problem, given we have Dr. Kawashima among others already in the game.
Bioshock: Grace Holloway and Charles Milton Porter, though they'd have to contend with characters like Elizabeth and Booker Dewitt, who you actually play as (though if any of you have played Bioshock feel free to correct me).
Rockstar Games:
Grand Theft Auto: Carl Johnson/CJ from San Andreas is one of the most notable playable characters (and arguably from the most famous GTA game), along with Franklin Clinton from V (got a surprisingly high score from Famitsu and another of the most successful GTA games), both make for fantastic candidates for this concept, and in the case of CJ his game has definitely stood the test of time. The main issue is Rockstar's relationship with Nintendo. They haven't been on the best terms, GTA has very little presence on Nintendo systems, and Nintendo hasn't gotten one of their games since Bully's Wii port.
Indies:
Cave Story: Human characters are almost all Japanese, no suitable candidates. Jenka's ethnicity can't be pinpointed.
Shovel Knight: Doesn't have any suitable candidates, and most major characters are covered in armor. Would have to contend with Shovel Knight himself. Deconfirmed via Shovel Knight's assist trophy.
Undertale: Hard to tell for Frisk, only human in the game. Deconfirmed via Sans' Mii Costume.
Cuphead: King Dice is usually portrayed as black due to his theme song being performed by a black singer in a very Louis Armstrong style. Though he'd have to contend with Cuphead and Mugman themselves, the former being a Mii Costume. Deconfirmed via Cuphead Mii Costume and spirit event.
Shantae: A character no doubt people will choose. Min Min puts her back on the table and is the undisputed frontrunner for her series. Though even with Min Min putting her back on the table, Nintendo might pass her over again. She didn't really get big until Half Genie Hero in 2016.
Hollow Knight: Characters are bugs/whatever they are. No suitable candidates.
Hat in Time: Bow Kid, second in command though I don't see her getting in over Hat Kid herself.
And there we have it! with all of that taken into consideration, let's come up with a chance score...
Chance: 10% - As I mentioned earlier, there isn't a huge pool of characters to pull from. The concept's chances mainly suffer from either a lack of Non White/Asian humans in a given series, or a series that has them either being deconfirmed or having much bigger characters that would take priority (along with plenty of series with no humans at all, or series like Kirby that have just Adeleine). When it comes to getting a character, it pretty much hinges on either Shantae, a potentially third Street Fighter character, Pokemon miraculously adding another human playable character, or Punch Out potentially getting another rep. Come next game things open up a bit with possibilities like Rodin, Meena, another ARMS rep, etc. But as a whole, I just don't have much confidence in the concept. It hinges on a small amount of character choices and thus the liklihood is very small. It's a shame, but this is just the circumstances we have.
One more thing. I don't know if I can say this as I'm not on staff, but I implore you all, KEEP THINGS CIVIL
I've already seen enough leakage from the (honestly pretty scary) political threads this site has, from a bit of soapboxing in the Geno thread when discussing Nintendo as a corporation to literal Soviet imagry in someone's signature in the General Newcomer Speculation thread. This isn't a place for politics. Please keep the discussion focused on the CHARACTERS, not the politics that led to this concept's nomination. The characters and their chances are what is most important here. It was bad enough with what happened on Lara Croft's last rating day, let's not repeat that.
And so far everyone's been very civil, let's keep that up!
Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x10
