Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[DrifloonEmpire]

One fighter, one stage, two songs and two spirits fulfills the requisites of a Challenger Pack just fine if need be. Keep in mind that, unlike the first Pass, this Pass wasn't even advertised as including Spirits, and we've already seen Min Min come with a reduced amount, so it's not out of the question that a character comes with few-to-none Spirits.

Just remembered something! Despite spirits not being advertised as part of the pass, there's still 5 empty spirit board slots under Min Min's/beside FP1's spirit boards in the list, so every character will still come with one. Even with Min-Min reusing several, they also added several new ones anyway (though I do think they should've done the whole cast, it's all first party after all). That's 5 new spirits, which isn't much less than Banjo-Kazooie's 7. The fact that Cloud himself couldn't even get artwork for his own fighter spirit wouldn't bode well for a board for Sephiroth. And with this information we know that every character in the pass WILL come with a spirit board! Plus paltry-content Sephiroth would individually cost as much as packed-with-content Terry, which would honestly be extremely stupid.

A character like Rex is basically a shoe-in at this point, and despite there being plenty of Xenoblade 2 spirits, there are still some very bizarre omissions (Dromarch, Vandham, Malos, Jin, Dughall, etc). With this, it'd be very disappointing for Rex to come with no new spirits at all when some major characters are still missing.

 

[warpenguin55]

Abstain. Not feeling it today
Noms Hades x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Gonna ask one more time since I'm about to start making my necessary support threads. Do things like the Sony and League of Legends support threads cover the characters that fall under that thread? Would help a lot when making these threads.

 

[Sid-cada]

Sephiroth

Chance - 2.5% - Having so little content of FF7 is a double edged sword; on one hand it's a good reason to expand on what's already in, but also could indicate problems with getting content. While there could be more Final Fantasy characters oncoming, don't forget that Sephiroth would also have to compete with other Square-Enix characters, alongside competition from his own franchise. I honestly would put more stock in a different entry of Final Fantasy getting in. I think that might get greater clout than going FF7 again.

Want - 40% - I didn't care for Cloud, and I don't care for him. I'd rather have a Final Fantasy character that's closer associated with Nintendo.


2B

Chance - 5% - Joker blindsided us, but I don't think she has what it takes to be her successor. For one, Nier's starting to age out a bit, so it would have been better to strike while the iron is hot, not while it's cooling off. Second, while Joker can at least claim that his franchise has games on the Switch, Nier has no such claim. While Sakurai could go for it if he's a big enough fan, I'm not feeling it.

Want - 40% - Largely the same I feel about Joker. I just don't care enough to buy her if she were to get in.


Nominations

Monster Hunter X5

 

[Deleted member]

Sephiroth-
hmm.. this is a toughie. Considering Cloud is in the game and Square has historically been pretty picky when it comes to FF characters, I feel he has a very diminished chance, especially considering no 3rd party thus far has had more than one character in the same dlc. However, I feel he still has a small shot. Maybe not super likely but still possible.
I’d say .5% at best.
As for wanting him.... I really don’t, although his design is pretty cool. maybe... like a 10%

As for 2B I’ve never actually played the games and I doubt looking it up on Google will help much so I’m not going to give an opinion.

For my nomination, I nominate Young Wizard (from the 2008 MMORPG, Wizard101) x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Gonna ask one more time since I'm about to start making my necessary support threads. Do things like the Sony and League of Legends support threads cover the characters that fall under that thread? Would help a lot when making these threads.

TCT~Phantom ?

 

[fogbadge]

Joker blindsided us

speak for yourself

 

[DanganZilla5]

speak for yourself

He is right though. Barely anyone talked about Joker in speculation because he was seen as unlikely.

 

[fogbadge]

He is right though. Barely anyone talked about Joker in speculation because he was seen as unlikely.

i cant be the only one who when they saw him on the website rolled their eyes and thought "of course"

 

[TCT~Phantom]

TCT~Phantom ?

In general I would strongly prefer there to be a support thread for the individual characters, as it helps sell their case. To me the OP of a support thread is supposed to be your elevator pitch on why the character should be in. The square general when DLC started also turned me off of generals.

Abstaining x 5 Fortnite character.

Day over Rate Meowth, Lycanroc, and Mimikyu, predict Lloyd Irving, Chosen Undead, and KOS MOS.

Also as a side note since it is the week of 490, we will be going a bit quicker for 1-2 days. This day for instance I do not see lasting longer than a day. For short sighting people, 5x extra noms for the short day. Use them well.

 

[Perkilator]

Again, abstain. I just wanna rate new characters already.

Lloyd: 40%
Chosen Undead: 40%
KOS-MOS: 50%

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo x5
Sakura Shinguji ×5

 

[Lyncario]

Meowth, that's right
Chance: 0.1%
Meowth is one of the few Pokemons who will always be relevant thanks to the anime. He's also a fan favorite for his role in the anime. He was also once considered for Smash 64, so that's also a plus for him. Otherwise he has nothing. If a Pokemon were to happen, it would most likely be a Gen 8 Pokemon, and I don't even think that a gen 8 mon is hapening in the first place.
Want: 40%
Meh. Meowth is neat and all in the anime, but I don't really want him as a fighter in Smash, even if he would be neat. Having a cat fighter would be cool, but Meowth is more like Isabelle as he is more human with cat like characteristics. So yeah, Meowth gets a big fat "meh" from me, and it's not even that I dislike the Pokemon anime.

Awooo!
Chance: 0%
Lyncanroc missed it's chance to be the Sun and Moon rep for Smash. Instead of im, Incineroar represents gen 7, and if another Pokemon were to join the roster, it would be one from the latest generation, said latest generation being Sword and Shield. Now, he could get some more relevance trough the anime since the Sun and Moon gang were confirmed to come back thanks to the secnod opening of Pokemon 2019 (and the award of worst timing to name something after it's year goes to the guy in TPC who hough that it was a good idea to name an anime series that started in late 2019 like this), but Ash and Go don't stay enough time in each region for him to even get back a glimpse of the relevance Meowth still has.
Want: 80%
Lyncanroc is a doggy, and I like doggies a lot. Also it would a fighter with the body of a wolf/canine, which would be very original and cool considering the only other dogs we have on the roster is the dog from the duck hunt duo (so he's not fighitng fully like a pure canine character would), while Wolf and Isabelle are humanoid and so not fighting like dogs or wolves. Also rock type Pokemon, would be unique, and flashy z move final Smash would be cool. Also I was talking about the Dusk form if you're wondering about it.

Mimikyu
Chance: 0%
You know the drill at that point. Mimikyu is not relevant enough anymore to the Pokemon series thanks to gen 8 existing, and it already lost the race against Incineroar for being playable on base game. Also there's no small movement for another Alola pokemon being playable in Smash as there's alreay Incineroar, and gen 3 and 5 don't have playable reps which is pretty much why they have said small movements. Though Mimikyu is one of the most popular Pokemon out there, even being number 3 accordingto the recent pokemon of they year poll where Lucari ogot number 2 and Greninja number 1. Also he's a pokeball and pokeballs disconfirm.
Want: 80%
I like Mimikyu a lot, just like I like Lyncanroc a lot. I use both of them when playing trough the Alola games a lot, unless I'm playing under Nuzlocke rules or some other self imposed challenge mode. And yeah, Mimikyu would be unique and cool while bringing 2 new pokemon types to the table. Also another flashy z move final smash. I find nothing else to talk about, execpt maybe for a gimmick with disguise but that would be annoying.

Nominations: SMT rep x5

Predictions:
Lloyd: 37.8%
Chosen Undead: 28.9%
KOS-MOS: 12.1%

Also wasn't Lloyd already rated for this pass or am I missremembering when it hapened?

 

[Sari]

Some Pokemon songs for today (nothing specific just some of my favorite tracks):

Spoiler: Pokemon Music

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Mimikyu

Chance: 0%
Already a pokeball Pokemon and Gen VIII will probably have priority anyway when it comes to another Pokemon rep. Even if we were to get another Gen VII rep, it'd probably be Decidueye since they were considered for the base game.

Want: 0%
I'll admit there was a very brief time where I kind of wanted Mimikyu but that time is long gone now. The only Pokemon I want in Smash are a select few which unfortunately Mimikyu isn't one of. Plus when it comes to additional Gen VII reps then I absolutely wouldn't want Mimikyu to get in over Decidueye.

-----

Meowth

Chance: 0.1%
I don't think pokeball promotions are likely within the same game. I'll give Meowth a tiny chance since it's a classic Kanto Pokemon, but even if we were to get another Gen I Pokemon I feel like Eevee would have the most priority.

Want: 20%
A fun and classic Pokemon that just feels like it should be in Smash thanks to Meowth's prominence in the anime. Wouldn't mind if they got in however when it comes to additional Gen I reps then Eevee would be my preferred choice.

-----

Lycanroc

Chance: 0.1%
Granted they're not a pokeball Pokemon but I don't see them adding a Gen VII rep when Incineroar exists. If Nintendo was picking the Smash slots then Gen VIII would definitely have priority. Also if Sakurai had to choose another Gen VII rep he'd probably go with Decidueye.

Want: 20%
Eh, I'd be alright with Lycanroc since it looks cool and it'd be fun to play as a true wolf character (Wolf stands and uses a gun so I don't count him). However I'm not too crazy on the idea of more Pokemon in general plus Decidueye is my most wanted Gen VII character.

-----

Chance predictions:
Lloyd: 50.00%
Chosen Undead: 6.50%
BAND-WAGON: 15.00% (much higher than it should be since the KOS-MOS thread will probably give laughably high scores like last time)

-----

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x10

 

[fogbadge]

right then, im gonna do them together

chances: 0% i think id we're getting a new pokemon in smash itll be from gen 8 not an old one. i mean sure meowth is a major part of the series and mimikyu is the third most popular pokemon but i don't think thatll be any help to them now. lycanroc has even less going for him. pokemon always tends to focus on the latest and the first gen which should in theory give meowth an edge but it should have given him an edge before as well.

want: for lycanroc 0% got nothing against him in any of his from is just don't want him in smash. never really got why people love him the way they do. meowth is 80% im not found of the focusing on gen one but i do feel meowth continued role in the anime and games should warrant him a spot. also he might be choice for representing regional variants, though thats not the way they do things in smash. mimikyu is a 90% i got sucked into his popularity vortex as well. he was one of major picks for a gen 7 pokemon in smash so i was quite disappointed when he was just a pokeball. more so when my least favourite gen 7 pokemon made it in instead.

nominate nate adams x10

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Vessel
Chance: 0%
Incinaroar is our gen 7 rep. Mimikyu already serves its purpose being a Pokeball Pokemon and frankly, I can not see TPC agreeing to sell a Pokemon from a gen that's old news as opposed to the one that's hot right now. I know about how popular Mimikyu was but even still, they wouldn't pass up the given opportunity to shill gen 8 in my mind.

Rockwolf
Chance: 0%
Again, Sun and Moon are now way behind us and I don't think any party would rather stick to those games instead of looking at the new Pokemon we have now. GoodGrief741 has described the situation better than I could have: "Pokemon is a train that doesn't take detours or wait for anybody" or something along the lines. Anyway, Lycanroc doesn't have a role in Ultimate tmk but I simply don't think it matters much. I cannot overstate that gen 8 would get the priority over gen 7 any day of the week.

Coin Cat
Chance: 1%
Being from the most recognizable gen and having a Galarian for in SwSh gives him a leg up over the other two. That's were the positives end for Meowth cause he's still part of the Pokeball crew and an original gen 8 Pokemon is still the likeliest option from the franchise by far. He isn't even regarded as the likeliest Kanto mon, that honour goes to Eevee.

Want: 1% for all
The pity percent because I just do not want a SwSh mon at all and would prefer any other generation. I'd still rather have no Pokemon as DLC at all though. My interest doesn't lie with it currently and it already has more than enough fighters. These three specifically also don't do it for me. I have no attachment to Mimikyu or Lyacanroc and neither Meowth if you don't count the anime. I also don't feel like Meoeth would have much of an interesting moveset if they don't go full in with the anime Team Rocket motiv which I doubt they will.

Lloyd: 34.24%
Chosen Undead: 16.73%
KOS-MOS: 13.85%
Deltarune content x5

 

[Blankiturayman]

Chance for all 3: 0%
For starters, I'm not sure we're getting more Pokémon in the rest of the DLC. It seems quite unlikely, and the decision to make a Spirit Board for SwSh, their newest game around the time FP2 might have been decided throws quite a dent on it. Of course, these ratings aren't about a new Pokémon from that game. I think getting a Pokémon that's not recent is probably not happening by how things have gone. They always go with them when they're new, ever since Smash 4. Lycanroc I don't see why they'd go with, it has its like here and there but Incineroar's already been added. Mimikyu had its share of popularity from what I recall, but again, they already added Incineroar. As for Meowth, well, I know it's known due to the anime and whatnot, but I don't think they'd choose it nonetheless. They seem to be content with Pikachu, Pokémon Trainer, and Mewtwo, which seems pretty good already if you ask me. I think that IF they were to add another one from Gen 1 it could be Eevee, but even that is very slim.

As for wants... well, to not repeat the same thing in all others, I'd rather not see another Pokemon myself, but I'd be ok with some. This goes into why they're all so low.
Mimikyu
Want: 1%
I like this one. If they didn't go with Incineroar as the Gen 7 character I think it'd have been a good one to go with.
Lycanroc
Want: 0%
I just don't like this one much, if at all. I think there'd be many other pokemon I'd prefer before this one and I'm not even that fond of them to begin with.
Meowth
Want: 2%
I give this one an slight edge because it's a classic one, and it would be nice to see one that's been around for that long.

Nominations:
Proto Man x5

Predictions:
Lloyd Irving: 45%
Chosen Undead: 20%
KOS-MOS: 10%

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain since I don't have the energy for a full write up today, but I will say that none of these three aren't likely at all, unfortunately. Nintendo choosing the characters means they'd likely prioritize promotion of Gen 8, and two of these three are Pokeball Pokemon, so even with Meowth's iconicness and Mimikyu's great placement in the Pokemon of the Year poll, nothing is going to change. That said, Meowth is cool and I'd gladly take it over Eevee, and as a HUGE fan of the Sun and Moon anime, having another member of Ash's Alola team on the roster would be super fun!


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5

Predictions:
Lloyd - 40.53%
Chosen Undead - 23.88%
KOS-MOS - 45.32%

Heihachi's deconfirmation automatically raises every Namco character's chances
So I'm expecting everyone to get bigger chance scores, especially Lloyd with his biggest competition removed. Though considering Namco hasn't added anyone since Pac Man, I'm still expecting a bit of hesitation.

As for the robot waifu on life support, expecting very few realistic ratings for her, and a LOT of bandwagoning, especially once her fans come to the thread. Getting ready for another Reimu-esque heavily polarized rating day...

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Part of why we did these rerates is the old scores were hyper inflated. Last time we rated them was ages ago.

Meowth
1% Chance

I honestly think Meowth is the one of the only two pokeball pokemon that might get an upgrade, but even then I would not bet on it. Meowth has been a pokemon Gamefreak has pushed since the beginning. It is one of the main characters in the Anime, and yes we all know the anime plays a big role. It however is starting to bleed into the games now. Meowth got two regional forms in a row, which to me is a sign GF does care about Meowth beyond just anime. Also the dynamax form is a good sign GF cares a ton about the little guy.

Most of what I said also applies to Eevee, who is the other pokemon I could see GF pushing to promote at some point. I personally say both have a lot of stock in a future smash game, be it Smash Ultimate Director's Cut for the Switch 2, or a reboot. For DLC though... It is all about Galar.

60% Want

Honestly indiffernet. I never watched the anime much as a kid and never really used Meowth much in game. That being said I do think he would be very fun to play as and has a ton of personality. I would compare him to Toad, as honestly both seem like they should have been characters in Smash by now. I guess I just think Meowth would be a bit more fun.

Mimikyu
0.5% Chance

Mimikyu is certainly a fan favorite, and I can see GF keeping it around a lot for the future. That being said, it is not the new hotness.

100% Want

I love playing Incineroar, but I won't lie and say that I would not have traded him for a different Gen 7 mon in a heartbeat. He may not be my least favorite unique newcomer (I dislike Byleth, Isabelle, and Plant more, and I dont hate Byleth or Incineroar) but saying I would rather have him than Mimikyu, one of my favorite pokemon, is a bold faced lie. I think the Disguise mechanic would be fun to implement into Smash, something like a one time Super Armor at low health. Also it is sp00ky.

Lycanroc
0.5%

I mean it was Ash's Alolan ace and it is popular. But once again. New Hotness. Lycanroc is cool and back in IoA, but it still is not the new hotness.

100% want

...which is a shame because Lycanroc is my favorite Gen 7 Mon and one of my favorite pokemon period. I don't know what monkey's paw shenanigans would happen, but I would swap Lycanroc into this game in a heartbeat. I would love to live in the alternate universe where the last two characters revealed alongside Ken were Lycanroc and honestly anything other than plant. I love the idea of playing as an actual Wolf or manipulating the earth. Also dusk form is best form.

Concept Fortnite character x 10


Also, I have a question for y'all. Would you all want to just rate the Gen 8 mons all in one day? I will double up noms if we do it. I know some people want to move on sooner, and with a direct looming next week it might be cool to move faster. Let me know today so when this day ends we do predictions.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Also, I have a question for y'all. Would you all want to just rate the Gen 8 mons all in one day? I will double up noms if we do it. I know some people want to move on sooner, and with a direct looming next week it might be cool to move faster. Let me know today so when this day ends we do predictions.

That'd be a fantastic idea! We've rated all of the Gen 8 choices very recently and there isn't much new to say about them outside of the poll results for Dragapult and Toxtricity.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Wearing the skin of it's famous kin
Chance: 0%
Mimikyu was popular. No one can deny that to the point I really did expect it to be a serious contender for Sun and Moon's Pokemon spot. However, it's now Sword and Shield's time in the sun is over. Jessie of Team Rocket had a Mimikyu in her team, but with the latest season, the puppet Pikachu has been sent to storage.

Add to that Mimikyu is already a Pokeball AND Pokemon company love to use Smash as their advertisement platform for the latest batch of mons, and Mimkyu is one of the few Pokemon I feel has it's chances completely dead. Which is sort of appropriate for a ghost Pokemon.

Want: 50%
I'm largely indifferent to Mimikyu, but it was the Sun and Moon Pokemon I was rooting for most. Which at a measly capped 50% probably explains how much I cared about that particular generation.

Boulder Dash-hund
Chance: 1%
Just like Mimikyu, Lycanroc has had it's time in the sun(and moon) but is no longer travelling with any of the main cast so...errr...yeah, it's not happening.

Unlike Mimikyu, the wolf made of rock has at least not been turned into a Pokeball, damning it's chances for this title. It's still not a good position for Lycanroc to be in though.

Want: 45%
Lycanroc was, curiously enough, the Pokemon I wanted the next most after Mimikyu for Smash, but this was largely because I didn't want anoter starter mon. At least Lycanroc has three forms to select from though, but I'll be surprised if he even makes it in as a Pokeball next Smash.

Put yo money where your Meowth is...
Chance: 1%
Meowth, frankly, is one of the few Pokemon who should have been in from the get go. In fact I'd argue Meowth was a far more worthwhile addition to represent Pokemon than Jigglypuff ever was and should have been the last secret character in Smash 64. Fight me.

Meowth is a Pokeball, but unlike Mimikyu, Meowth has an insanely strong anime presence as the main antagonist Pokemon of the entire series.
Add to that Gamefreak have given him some special treatment recently between two special regional forms(something very few Pokemon recieve...if any), a whole new evolution for one of those regional forms AND a special Dynamax addition which they used to plug Sword and Shield early on with a limited time Dynamax Kanto Meowth...

Want: 100%
...it worked, I bought the damn game for Meowth.

Let me be straight up here. I've only ever wanted two characters in Smash since 64's initial release. Toad was one of them(obviously if you know anything about me) and Meowth? Meowth was the second.

Meowth is one of those few Nintendo characters who is missing that I'd genuinely peg as an All Star that somehow got skipped over. Often when thinking of Nintendo All Stars currently missing from playable status in Smash you'll see Toad, Dixie Kong, Waluigi, Bandana Waddle Dee, but I'd argue Meowth(and Eevee) are as...if not MORE famous than everyone on that list bar maybe Toad and Waluigi due to Mario brand recognition.

Meowth's always popular thanks to Team Rocket being universally recognisable AND most would argue the best thing in the anime, and Gamefreak themselves have pushed him forward a lot with Let's Go having Jessie and James appear with him(albeit slightly altered so he can't talk), your mother having a Meowth rivalry with the neighbour in Sun and Moon, Meowth being the mascot Pokemon of Rainbow Rocket(and Team Rocket in general these days) and that god damn DYNAMAX LONG MEOWTH.

Unfortunately for all the recent peddling Gamefreak have done for Meowth, and even recently breaking out the "Ash has to catch the latest Pokemon exclusively" rut the anime has had for the longest time, there's absolutely no way they'll promote Meowth over Cinderace, who the deutagonist Goh seems to be working upto in the anime.

Cinderace frankly NEEDS Smash to keep it's relevancy past this generation whilst Meowth has proven to be popular throughout the past 24-25 years, so I can understand why Gamefreak may want to push Cinderace for Smash anyway...more Pokemon keeping their fame means more merchandising opportunities.

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd X 5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Three Pokemon

Chance: 0%
I already don't think we're getting Pokemon from Gen 8 as DLC, given the timing of its Spirit Event. Pokemon that wouldn't be shill picks? Get outta here. Meowth is one of the most iconic Pokemon ever and is always popping up in Pokemon media. Mimikyu is an incredibly popular Pokemon. And Lycanroc, from what I hear has an important spot in the anime. None of that matters! Nothing matters unless it's corporate synergy, needlessly oiling cogs in the biggest, best-oiled machine in the world.

Want:
For the cash cat, it's 100%. There's zero reason why Meowth isn't in Smash already. He's one of the most iconic Pokemon. He's a baffling omission and the sooner it's corrected, the better. I've been pretty vocal about not wanting any more Pokemon in Smash because it has too much, and that kind of applies to Meowth as well. But I'm not going to give him 0%, it's freaking Meowth.

Ghost blanket gets 0%. I actually really like Mimikyu, it was my preferred pick for the SuMo rep. I want more Pokemon with unorthodox shapes and sizes that can do **** no other franchise can, and Mimikyu fit that bill, plus its cute. But alas, we got discount Zangief instead. Good to see Mimikyu vindicated in the popularity department. I'd like to see it get in a future game, but its absence is nowhere near as outrageous as Meowth, so the want for no more Pokemon outweighs it. Hence, the 0%.

Dust dog gets 0%. Lycanroc never did anything for me. I can think of quadrupeds and earthbenders that are more compelling. While I like the base design, the two forms (dusk and the other one, right?) were trash imo. Still would have taken him over Inci though. But I don't think it should be in Smash.

Noms: ****ing Tidus x10
Lloyd prediction: 53.12%
Chosen Undead prediction: 3.02%
KOS-MOS prediction: 16.82% (should be more around 1%)

 

[fogbadge]

you know how we make predictions and rate satisfactions for directs? well in a similar vain perhaps after an indy show case we could rate the odds of one of the games in the show case getting a mii costume plus music track? no? bad idea? ill see myself out

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Sephiroth/2B pre-Meowth/Mimikyu/Lycanroc

Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x260
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x230
Tidus x220
Nate Adams x210
[Rerate] Ezio x195
Shuichi Saihara x181
Moogle x175

150 - 101

Alex Mason x145
[Rerate] Frisk x135
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x135
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x135
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x121
The Stretchers x120
D.Va x115
Red (Angry Birds) x115
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x115
Echo: Xion (Sora) x113
Sakura Shinguji x112
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Billy Hatcher x110
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x110
Klonoa x105

100 - 51

Proto Man x90
Concept: Deltarune content x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x75
Boss: Ender Dragon x73
Hades (Kid Icarus) x70
The Terrarian x65
Concept: Rocket League rep x65
Amiya (Arknights) x65
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x64
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x62
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x55
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x55
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x55

50 - 25

Giygas x50
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x50
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x50
Gooigi x50
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x50
Dr. Goomba Tower x50
Magolor x50
John Marston x44
Jin Sakai x44
Stage: Bowser's Castle x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
Ghirahim x35
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x35
Boss: Rayquaza x34
Concept: Returning stages x31
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
[Rerate] Monokuma x30
Yoshimitsu x30
Concept: Fortnite character x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25

Under 25

Echo (Olimar) x21
Black Shadow x20
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x20
Lora and Jin x20
Concept: Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed x20
Chell x18
Zeraora x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Cynthia x15
Vi (Bug Fables) x15
Taranza x11
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x10
Tetra x10
Demi-fiend x10
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x7
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Young Wizard (Wizard101) x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Kass x1

Klonoa jumps past 100 noms.

Dr. Goomba Tower and Magolor reach 50 noms and are spared from the purge.

Today's newcomer is Young Wizard, from the game Wizard101, with 5 noms.

 

[SharkLord]

I'll just do the scores collectively.
Chance: 5%. Their time in the sun has come and gone, and there's a hot new thing in the form of SwSh at the moment. They aren't that big any more, even if Meowth is the Team Rocket Pokemon. I don't see them happening.
Want: 50%. I don't really care either way. They'd be cool, sure, but they aren't people I'll parade around the streets declaring my support.
Predictions:
Lloyd: 56.78%
Chosen Undead: 23.65%
Kos-Mos: 42.81%
Nomination: Klonoa x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't have an opinion on any of these guys.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Meowth, Lycanroc and Mimikyu

Abstain. I'm tired of rating pokemon. Plus I can say the same thing for all these 3 pokemon: They are not Gen 8 pokemon so they are not realistically happening.

And yes, I agree that we should rate all the Gen 8 Pokemon at once. It will speed the rerate schedule up. I'm dying to nominate other characters. I literally have a list of 10+ characters I want to rate.

Predictions:
Lloyd Irving - 52%
Chosen Undead - 17%
KOS-MOS - 4%

Noms: Ezio x5

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain

Nominate content from currently unreleased game x5

Prediction 2%

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstain because none of these 3 are going to happen and I dont feel lke typing anything out for them since it'll just be the same thing over and over

Predictions
KOS MOS - 4%
Undead - 5%
Lloyd - 45%

Noms
John Marston x3
Jin Sakai x2

 

[BowserKing]

Meowth

Chance: 15%. Meowth is quite popular and is a very iconic Pokémon, so it’s appearance is a good choice for Smash. While Meowth may be a Pokeball Pokémon, there are a few variations that may work as a loophole.

Want: 75%. If Meowth were to be in the game, it could work with Team Rocket. Besides the point, Meowth would totally be fun to play as. I can see Meowth fight Mario and Wario in a battle in the golden Fields stage. Overall, Meowth would be a heart choice of a Pokémon Rep.

Mimikyu

Chance: 15%. Another popular Pokémon that is in a Pokeball, but that does not always mean that it is impossible. They are a species after all. Mimikyu however does a great job being a lethal Pokeball Pokémon.

Want: 80%. Mimikyu would totally be a fun character to play as, and I can see it face off against Dark Samus and Dark PIt in a free for all. Overall, MImikyu would be great for Smash.

Lycanroc

Chance: 15%. Unlike the 2 above, Lycanroc is not even a summonable Pokémon, giving it a slight advantage. But the chance of it’s being playable is not as good as those from Pokémon from Sword/Shield.

Want: 65%. Lycanroc would be fun to play as, and I can see it face off against Lucario and Wolf in a free for all. I think Lycanroc would make a fun fighter, and while I prefer it if Mimikyu got in, Lycanroc would still be a good choice.

Predictions: KOS MOS (10%), Undead (10%) and Lloyd (25%)

Noms: 5 for Echo: Dark Bowser (14E)

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

All 3 get 1% Chance.

They are not Gen 8, so they are out.

Want for Meowth: 30%

I could write a wall of text explaining why Meowth was snubbed of a Smash invitation, but YoshiandToad is far more passionate than me about him. All i will say is that he would have been better than Greninja, Inci, and Lucario.

Want for Mimikyu: 1%

Would have been better than Incineroar, who's just a token Wrestler with no real spin on the idea.

Want For Lycanroc: 5% for Midday, 0 for the other 2% forms.

Lycanroc Midday is actually my favorite Gen 7 Pokémon, and would have easily chosen him over All the other choices. But now Gen 7 has passed and gotten it's own (admitedly underwhelming) rep, so i'll just be okay with him beign a Pokéball summon............which he isn't......

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain yet again
Nominations: Shuichi Saihara x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

All i will say is that he would have been better than Greninja, Inci, and Lucario.

The one thing I'll disagree with. Even if these three were promotional picks, representing other Generations is important, especially in a series that's already bloated with blatant Gen 1 favoritism. Especially since Greninja was already popular long before Smash 4, and both it and Lucario had great placements in the Pokemon of the Year poll.

That said, back in the Smash 64 days it should've been Meowth who was the second Pokemon instead of Jigglypuff, especially given that Meowth has had continual relevance through the anime as a major character while Jigglypuff fell from prominence all together. Jigglypuff is only still here due to her being Original 12.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over

Today is the Namco day, rate Lloyd Irving, Chosen Undead, and KOS MOS.

Tomorrow is the Gen 8 Day. Predict Dragapult, Toxtricity, Urshifu, Melmetal, Cinderace, and Rillaboom. Also so no one complains even if it is the second worst starter of all time Intelleon is going into the mix as well. Predict all 7. Will also give out double noms for people who predict each one the best.

 

[Sari]

Some songs to get into the Lloyd mood:

Spoiler: Lloyd Music

Some songs to get into the Chosen Undead mood:

Spoiler: Chosen Undead Music

Some songs to get into the KOS-MOS mood:

Spoiler: KOS-MOS Music

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Day over

Today is the Namco day, rate Lloyd Irving, Chosen Undead, and KOS MOS.

Tomorrow is the Gen 8 Day. Predict Dragapult, Toxtricity, Urshifu, Melmetal, Cinderace, and Rillaboom. Also so no one complains even if it is the second worst starter of all time Intelleon is going into the mix as well. Predict all 7. Will also give out double noms for people who predict each one the best.

Just for my curiosity, who’s the worst?

Abstain on Chance
Want: Lloyd Irving: 40%
I recognize the importance of Tales of, but to me his design or potential moveset doesn’t spark much joy. Maybe it’s Corrin pessimism, but I don’t see dual wielding work in a 2D plane fighter. I’m sure he’ll have a meter though so that sure is something.

Chosen Undead: Want: 30%
I haven’t played Dark Souls, and it’d irk me the wrong way to pick the player character instead of the more well-known Solaire guy thing. I also don’t know how well Dark Souls‘ appeal translates to a Smash character.

KOS MOS Want: 70%
Rie Sonomura wants her and her cyborg-look is appealing in a hey-that’s-a-fun-design way. Her connection to Nintendo also makes her more interesting speculation-wise than looking at a selling series and just pointing at whoever’s in it to “rep” that.

Predictions
Dragapult: 12.3%
Toxtricity: 16.7%
Urshifu: 24.5%
Melmetal: 3.89%
Cinderace: 33.3%
Rillaboom: 27.8%
James Pond: 14.5%

Noms: Non-Videogame Mii Costume x5

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain on the two (snorts and holds a wine glass) weeb picks, we choose the finest of Undead.

Chance: 45%
Certainly popular (for better or worse), but some might consider it too grim for Smash. Plus, its only Nintendo presence so far (to my memory, please feel free to correct me) is Dark Souls Remastered on Switch.

Want: 100%
I haven't played Dark Souls (and due to the punishing difficulty, I don't think I wanna), but I don't need to to want Chosen Undead. Source Gaming sold me on this a few weeks back.

Gen 8: 0%-50%

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo x2
Sakura Shinguji ×3

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Lloyd Irving

Chance: 50% - With the deconfirmation of Lloyd's biggest competition in Heihachi, he's looking to easily be the Namco frontrunner at this point in time, and given Sakurai's statements on a Tales of rep, Lloyd more than likely wouldn't have to worry about Yuri or the Tales of Arise protagonist being chosen instead (especially since he was chosen as the Mii Costume for Tales last game). Tales of is considered one of the Big 3 JRPG franchises in Japan alongside Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy, and is the only one not yet in Smash. Furthermore, Tales of has a pretty good showing on Nintendo systems (at least until the PS3 was released) and seems like the kind of franchise Nintendo would go for. Along with what's already been discussed, Lloyd is by and far the most likely Namco character.

However, there are two factors keeping me from giving him a higher score. The first is the fact that Namco has added none of their own characters since Pac Man back in Smash 4, so that alone makes a Namco character less likely in a way. Which is unfortunate since Namco has so many great franchises to choose from, which could all come with lots of content!

The second is that Lloyd has to worry about his potentially returning Mii Costume. His Namco buddy Heihachi had his return despite being so late in the game and the Gil costume has yet to come back as well. Given that Mii Costume sets are sometimes themed, the two could very much so return as a pair.

Want: 10% - I have no attachment to the Tales of Series, but I do have to give him some points since a good friend of mine really wants him. Unfortunately I still can't give him a high score since Namco's next character will very likely be their last, and he's competition for my most wanted character, The Prince of All Cosmos. Lloyd being in means no Prince, so that reason alone brings his score way down. But if Lloyd were to get in I'd respect the decision since he has been requested for a long time.


Chosen Undead

Chance: 20% - Another Namco franchise that gains from Heihachi's deconfirmation, Dark Souls recently made its' Nintendo debut and even came with an amiibo of its' own, and 3rd party amiibos are not common at all. Dark Souls has been building itself up as a modern icon and has built up a lot of popularity, especially in the West. Alongside that, unlike Lloyd, Chosen Undead doesn't have a potentially returning Mii Costume to worry about, and because of said Amiibo deal, Nintendo would more than likely have Dark Souls on the radar. He also appeals to the Western RPG crowd (Dark Souls, while Japanese, is done in a very Western style), which brings in a new demographic to Smash.

His only real issues are that his popularity is mostly concentrated in the West, the franchise is considered complete, and competition with Tales of (alongside other Namco franchises). But if Namco does get another rep, Chosen Undead definitely has a good shot!

Want: 15% - While I've never played Dark Souls directly, I've watched my friend play 2 and 3, resulting in a lot of fun memories and inside jokes. Alongside that, if we don't get Dragonborn, then Chosen Undead would be a good choice for a Western-styled armor and magic weapon character, and the magic imbuing system for weapons would definitely be a fun gimmick for Smash! Though, like with Lloyd, I have to limit my score due to competition with the Prince of All Cosmos.


KOS-MOS

Chance: 1% - Oh boy, here we go.... I'm sorry, but this character just isn't happening. She's a character on life support, only kept alive through cameos in other games, along with most of her fan demand being bandwagoners from the Game Awards speculation days (along with a few Xenoblade fans who like Xeno as a whole). Furthermore, her series is long over and unlike characters like Banjo she doesn't have the popularity to compensate, and has to compete with several much larger and more iconic and successful Namco franchises, several of which have had recent releases on Nintendo systems. Yes, her and T-elos appeared in Xenoblade 2, but simply as extremely rare blades who have zero impact on the story and few players will actually end up getting during their run of the game. And speaking of which, if Nintendo is picking the characters and wants to add a Xeno rep, they're going to choose their OWN Xeno franchise, not one that's never been on Nintendo systems, isn't popular, failed a marketing survey resulting in no HD remaster considerations, and has been dead for over a decade. KOS-MOS is only kept alive by MonolithSoft constantly shilling her, and at this point she's basically a zombie.

I'm sorry, but she just isn't going to be chosen, and people need to stop being delusional...

Want: 0% - Zero interest in Xenosaga, never bothered to gacha for her in Xenoblade 2, and her bandwagoning has been just infuriating. Furthermore she'd deconfirm my most wanted character and in the worst way possible. Shilling a character doesn't automatically make them a good Smash pick, and there are many WAY better Namco choices that have longer legacies, would bring more to the table, have way more fan demand, or any combination of the three.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5
Zavok x5

Predictions:
Rillaboom - 15.66%
Cinderace - 35.87%
Urshifu - 26.43%
Melmetal - 5.22%
Dragapult - 14.38%
Toxtricity - 21.62%

Dragapult and Toxtricity will more than likely gain boosts from the poll results. Melmetal's score will likely drop the further we get from Gen 7. Plus with the way Game Freak is promoting things, expecting a dip for Rillaboom and a rise for Cinderace, as the latter is looking to be the favorite starter for Gen 8.

 

[Lyncario]

Lloyd
Chance: 10%
I don't think of Lloyd as likely. I though that we would get a Bamco rep in the second fighter pass, but I also though that it would most likely be Heihachi. I do think that Lloyd still has a bit of a chance with him having a lot of fan request and Tales Of Symphonia being famous for being a jrpg on the Gamecube when Pokemon Collosem was the only alternative for a jrpg on the gamecube. And also Tales Of is old and popular in Japan, so I'll also give him that. But yeah, I don't think that Lloyd is all that likely, mainly because he's not that popular within the Tales Of fanbase, so they might pick Yuri instead of him to represent Tales Of, tho I don't think that either one is more likely than the other.
Want: 55%
He's cool and Tales Of has a good soundtrack. He could have a nice moveset based of his swordplay, even if I don't think that him having 2 swords is all that big of a deal. His SSF2 moveset makes him loose osme points tho, since I find it pretty boring and generic. But otherwise, I have nothing against him and his series.

KOS-MOS
Chance: 1%
I'll be honest and say that she barely has a chance. Like, why would she be in Smash since her series is kinda dead, and even if she still has relevance trough many crossover apearances, it's still not much. Also Bandai Namco said on twitter that they stopped making hd rematers of Xenosaga because their study told them that it wasn't worth it, so it's a yikes for KOS-MOS in my opinion. I just don't think that she has any reason to be the new Bandai Namco character over Heihachi, Lloyd, Yuri, or Chosen Undead. And even if a lot of what I said could be applid to Banjo, Banjo also had one of the most massive fan support for over a decade, and KOS-MOS do not have that. Also she's a blade in Xenoblade 2, but I don't see why she would get in for this over Rex and Pyra.
Want: 70%
KOS-MOS is a cool robot with cool robot moves and she would honestly be ultra fun to play in Smash with all of her lasers and weapons. She would legitimately be that fun to play. Xenosaga also has great soundtrack, so it would be cool to hear it in Smash. Xenosaga is also a good game series so it would be nice to see it represented in Smash, even if it's not my favorite jrpg that deals with themes of christianity and religion on the PS2 (that's a very specific niche), it's still great, even if not as great as Nocturne in my opinion.

Chosen Undead
Chance: 15%
He is now the most likely Bamco rep now that Heihachi got disconfirmed by mii costume, and for good reason. Dark Souls became very popular thanks to it's challenging gameplay, and the Dark Souls HD trilogy got ported on the Switch, and Nintendo even agreed to make amibos for Solaire. A Dark Souls rep for Smash even had a bit of push during pre-release because of the Solaire amiibo. But even if I think of Chosen Undead as the most likely Bandai Namco rep after Heihachi was disconfirmed, I still don't think of him as likely, mainly because I though as the Bandai Namco rep that would happen for this pass.
Want: 70%
Dark Souls is a cool game and seeing it get represented in Smash would be nice, but the "clunkiness" that Chosen Undead has would probably be carried in his moveset so that knocks him some points off. Another thing that knocks him off some points if the "the Dark Souls of blank genre" meme, and while it should not annoy me, especialy since it's thankfully less and less seen, it still makes me frown, mainly because well, I am a fan of both SMT and Touhou, and well, I'll just say that the roll in Dark Souls by itself make it far easier than most of the games in both series. Not to say that Dark Souls is easy, far from it, it is challenging, but it just annoys me that it became the standard way to describe a challenging game when far harder existedfor far longer. It was especialy annoying in the reviews of the Crash trilogy HD. But anyway, it would still be cool.

Nominations: SMT rep x5

Predictions:
Rilaboom: 49.6%
Cinderace: 47.8%
Inteleon: 18.7%
Urshifu: 27.8%
Toxicitry: 24.7%
Melmetal: 2.1%
Dragapult: 12.4%

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Lloyd

Chance: 65%

I still find it strange that Namco only has a single fighter despite co developing the game. Now that his biggest competition Heihachi has been Mii Costume'd I think that his chances have gone up dramatically.

Want: 100%

Tales of is one of my favorite series and I believe its one of the biggest JRPGs not represented with a playable character. To have it in alongside Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Persona, Fire Emblem, Pokemon, Earthbound, etc., would be a dream come true.

KOS-MOS

Chance: Abstain

Want: 100%

I like her design and think she could provide a cool moveset to boot. Xenosaga also has great music and I think she could bring a lot to the table in a fighter pack in terms of content.


Abstain on Chosen Undead

 

[Sari]

Abstaining on all want ratings + Chosen Undead entirely.

-----

Lloyd (I seriously need to play Symphonia since I've had it on Steam for years)

Chance: 48%
With Heihachi officially out of the running, Lloyd is easily the frontrunner for another Namco character. Tales is really popular and Lloyd doesn't have the moveset/VA issues that Heihachi had. Granted there's a very small chance we get Yuri or Velvet instead to represent Tales, but even Sakurai said Lloyd would be the best choice to represent the series back in SSB4.

-----

KOS-MOS

Chance: 0.1%
Harada literally said that her series is unprofitable. It makes no sense for either Nintendo or Namco to put her in Smash when more popular characters like Lloyd exist. Plus if we're getting another Xeno series rep then it's definitely gonna be a Xenoblade character like Rex.

-----

Predictions:
Dragapult: 7.50%
Toxitricity: 14.00%
Urshifu: 13.50%
Melmetal: 1.50%
Cinderace: 28.00%
Rillaboom: 20.00%
Inteleon: 12.00%

Tomorrow is gonna be the equivalent of chugging down that awful tasting medicine all at once

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x15 (using my 10 extra noms)