Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[KingofPhantoms]

Pokeball Pokemon Promotion: 1%

There's so precedent for this as of yet, only a handful of the Pokeball Pokemon in Ultimate are popular enough to really be considered in my opinion, and the priority Pokemon newcomer will more than likely be a Sword and Shield Pokemon anyway.

All in all, it's not impossible but I can hardly see it happening.

Want: 80%

One reason:

The SM anime swiftly turned Alolan Vulpix into one of my all-time favorite Pokemon.

I'd be content with Mimikyu or Eevee, too.

Nominations: The Heavy x5

 

[PeridotGX]

Pokeball Pokemon

Chance - 3%. Pokemon is a series that's Smash content is heavily centered around what's new, so that doesn't leave much room for the Pokeball Pokemon, which are all from old generations. There are a few options that might work, though.

Eevee - Pokemon's been playing up the importance of Eevee, even giving it it's own game. The biggest problem is that it's too late. Let's Go Kanto isn't the most recent game anymore, and there was a Let'a Go spirit event. I don't think Eevee's happening, but it should be mentioned

Marill or Togepi - Same thing as Eevee, but hinging on a game that might not exist instead of one that's lost it's time in the starlight.

Mimikyu - Going off the Google poll, it's the most popular Pokemon that isn't in Smash yet. If Sakurai wanted to appease Pokemon fans, he could've set a slot aside for the winner of the poll, but it doesn't look likely.

Want - 25%. There are Pokeball Pokemon I'd like to see playable, like Scizor, Weavile, or Mimikyu. There are many Pokemon I would prefer, though.

Noms: PMD x5

 

[Guynamednelson]

Let's Go Kanto isn't the most recent game anymore, and there was a Let'a Go spirit event.

Doesn't mean the pushing of Eevee stopped. For example, Cafe Mix has it in its logo but not Pikachu.

 

[CureParfait]

Chance- 50%

I think it depends on which Pokemon is going to be playable in the first place. Like if the said Pokeball Pokemon is very popular (for example- Gardevoir, Eevee) then I can see them being promoted to playable.

Want- 100%

Mainly because my most wanted for Smash which is Darkrai is a Pokeball Pokemon. Also interesting to see how people would react if a Pokeball got upgraded to playable in the same game.

 

[RouffWestie]

what makes you say that?

That's the only reason left that could be heavily in the currently unplayable first-party characters' favor. Fan demand and historical value are the other reasons Nintendo would pick a newcomer for Smash, but those aren't something most of the remaining first-parties have enough of.
It's hard to believe fan demand would help them get in since there's still many other unrepresented third-party franchises that would likely beat them out big time in that department. It's hard to believe historical value would help them get in since all the current first-party fighters on the roster cover most of the notable points of Nintendo's history. Whatever historical value is held by the first-party characters that aren't yet in Smash is likely very miniscule.
It's more believable one getting in due to having promotional potential since promoting one of their more recent releases will always benefit Nintendo directly.

 

[GoodGrief741]

That's the only reason left that could be heavily in the currently unplayable first-party characters' favor. Fan demand and historical value are the other reasons Nintendo would pick a newcomer for Smash, but those aren't something most of the remaining first-parties have enough of.
It's hard to believe fan demand would help them get in since there's still many other unrepresented third-party franchises that would likely beat them out big time in that department. It's hard to believe historical value would help them get in since all the current first-party fighters on the roster cover most of the notable points of Nintendo's history. Whatever historical value is held by the first-party characters that aren't yet in Smash is likely very miniscule.
It's more believable one getting in due to having promotional potential since promoting one of their more recent releases will always benefit Nintendo directly.

Damn if only there were highly demanded first party characters with historical importance

 

[fogbadge]

That's the only reason left that could be heavily in the currently unplayable first-party characters' favor. Fan demand and historical value are the other reasons Nintendo would pick a newcomer for Smash, but those aren't something most of the remaining first-parties have enough of.
It's hard to believe fan demand would help them get in since there's still many other unrepresented third-party franchises that would likely beat them out big time in that department. It's hard to believe historical value would help them get in since all the current first-party fighters on the roster cover most of the notable points of Nintendo's history. Whatever historical value is held by the first-party characters that aren't yet in Smash is likely very miniscule.
It's more believable one getting in due to having promotional potential since promoting one of their more recent releases will always benefit Nintendo directly.

so what you're saying is that no 1st party character has enough support and theres no one iconic enough left? im sorry but just not true, isaac has support that rivalled ridley and k.rool and toad is a major in the biggest video game franchise in the world. saying thats is more belivable that theyd be in for promo purposes sounds like you either havent been paying to much attention as people still wont shut up about waluigi or for some reason you cant accept that theres still heavily popular and very iconic 3rd party characters left

 

[amageish]

That's the only reason left that could be heavily in the currently unplayable first-party characters' favor. Fan demand and historical value are the other reasons Nintendo would pick a newcomer for Smash, but those aren't something most of the remaining first-parties have enough of.
It's hard to believe fan demand would help them get in since there's still many other unrepresented third-party franchises that would likely beat them out big time in that department. It's hard to believe historical value would help them get in since all the current first-party fighters on the roster cover most of the notable points of Nintendo's history. Whatever historical value is held by the first-party characters that aren't yet in Smash is likely very miniscule.
It's more believable one getting in due to having promotional potential since promoting one of their more recent releases will always benefit Nintendo directly.

But... ARMS got in? That's a successful, if not mind-blowingly successful, first-party IP that isn't "promotional" unless you count "game currently purchasable with probable future franchising" as "promotional," in which case... Nearly every character is promotional, first and third party?

As for fan demand, it's true that people tend to prefer speculating about third parties, but it's not like the sole metric for popularity is people discussing them on forums such as these. Nintendo has tonnes of characters with successful games that people love that aren't in Smash yet.

Sorry, I see a lot of people are piling onto this comment, but it's a pretty bold statement to make...

 

[YoshiandToad]

Pokeball Pokémon
Chance: 0.5%
Eevee, Meowth and Gardevoir are popular, and it has happened before with Charizard, but we know the Pokémon company prefer to hock a latest gen mon instead.

Want: 100%
Obviously depending but Meowth is a full 100%. I fully believe he'd have been a better choice than Puff in the original roster.
In the last two games there's been a Meowth variant which I think is going to continue in future games.

Eevee is and always has been huge. Often used as a starter in spinoff titles including Let's Go, XD, PMD, Pokémon Conquest and even one in Pokémon Yellow for your rival.

These two have something the Sword and Shield Pokémon options like Cinderace or Rillaboom don't have: lasting, proven popularity. They have been and continue to be important Pokémon that stand out amongst the hundreds of other Pokémon.
Not to say they won't remain popular but I absolutely hate the current shill fighter setup we constantly get for Smash.

Of course there's always Pokeball Pokémon that I think are a bad fit for playable such as Pyukumuku or Abra(although it's actually my favourite Pokémon FYI, he's just a bad option for a Smash fighter) but most the ones included are at least somewhat proven popular mons.

 

[RouffWestie]

so what you're saying is that no 1st party character has enough support and theres no one iconic enough left? im sorry but just not true, isaac has support that rivalled ridley and k.rool and toad is a major in the biggest video game franchise in the world. saying thats is more belivable that theyd be in for promo purposes sounds like you either havent been paying to much attention as people still wont shut up about waluigi or for some reason you cant accept that theres still heavily popular and very iconic 3rd party characters left

Only 5 DLC slots are left. The characters are probably going to have to have much more going for them than just a lot of people liking the character. Fan demand already got Ridley, K. Rool, Chrom, Dark Samus, and Isabelle in for first-party titles. Nintendo knows a lot of fans are pleased with those newcomers and "Everyone is Here." Now, we've reached the point of what seems to be the final DLC for this entry. Nintendo was more than likely considering maximizing what they can gain with their limitations instead of just giving any requested 1st party character a free pass.

Damn if only there were highly demanded first party characters with historical importance

Enough importance to beat the potential hundreds of other historically important non-Nintendo franchises that haven't been represented in Smash at all within just 5 DLC slots, that a very tough gamble. They've yet to go that far with the DLC they've picked yet so I can't say I could easily see them doing that.

But... ARMS got in? That's a successful, if not mind-blowingly successful, first-party IP that isn't "promotional" unless you count "game currently purchasable with probable future franchising" as "promotional," in which case... Nearly every character is promotional, first and third party?

Many of those games are Mario, Zelda, Kirby, Yoshi... they're already represented in the roster. Is you're argument that literally any character that appears in any capacity in any game that can be played on Switch is the same as adding a fighter who had no fighter representative before him/her from a clearly new franchise on their current system?

As for fan demand, it's true that people tend to prefer speculating about third parties, but it's not like the sole metric for popularity is people discussing them on forums such as these. Nintendo has tonnes of characters with successful games that people love that aren't in Smash yet.

Sorry, I see a lot of people are piling onto this comment, but it's a pretty bold statement to make...

But they don't have tons of DLC packs left, so they can't just give them out to any character who is requested. They as a business - and any other business who knows they're working with a limited resource - have to balance what they have to gain and what they have to lose.

 

[Sid-cada]

Pokeball Pokemon

Chance - 0.5% - Unfortunately, we have to come to accept that the Pokemon will always come from the most recent game. While there is a small outside chance for an older Pokemon, overall Pokemon Company has prioritized a promotional pick first and foremost. With no Sword and Shield Pokemon in a ball, this looks super unlikely.

Want - 40% - Eh, I'm a bit burned out with Pokemon right now. While there are some Pokemon who I recognize would be fine getting in, I'd rather focus on other series right now.


Nominations

Lip X5

 

[3BitSaurus]

Enough importance to beat the potential hundreds of other historically important non-Nintendo franchises that haven't been represented in Smash at all within just 5 DLC slots, that a very tough gamble.

I mean... I wouldn't call PP or Byleth "historically important" either. And if sales/general gaming history were our main metrics, we would have had a VERY different first season.

I'd argue the only DLC from Pass 1 that would still be there would have been Hero, in that case.

Many of those games are Mario, Zelda, Kirby, Yoshi... they're already represented in the roster. Is you're argument that literally any character that appears in any capacity in any game that can be played on Switch is the same as adding a fighter who had no fighter representative before him/her from a clearly new franchise on their current system?

Again, PP and Byleth got in while Astral Chain and Ring Fit got spirited, despite the latter being arguably one of Nintendo's most successful new IPs, if not THE most successful new first party IP of the Switch era as of now.

I do get where you're coming from in a way, as the past two games have left me with a similarly cynical view of first party additions, but... I just don't think these are really the reasons why.

 

[amageish]

Many of those games are Mario, Zelda, Kirby, Yoshi... they're already represented in the roster. Is you're argument that literally any character that appears in any capacity in any game that can be played on Switch is the same as adding a fighter who had no fighter representative before him/her from a clearly new franchise on their current system?

My argument is that ARMS is getting in for its own merits and not just promotional benefits, which it sounds like you agree with. So, I don't see why no other first-party franchises could do the same, even if a lot of the fan requests are secondary characters or protagonists from later entries.

Obviously they like putting in characters from living franchises that benefit from the attention Smash gives them. I do not expect any characters from games that are not legally playable on modern hardware. I just don't think that it has to be a new creation for a new game, as opposed to maybe a new character with spirits/stage associated with a newer game. If we get Pokemon remakes or spin-offs with known fan favourite Pokemon in major roles, then I don't see why they'd have a 0% chance when compared to Sword/Shield.

But they don't have tons of DLC packs left, so they can't just give them out to any character who is requested. They as a business - and any other business who knows they're working with a limited resource - have to balance what they have to gain and what they have to lose.

I agree! This argument also works against third party characters though? They don't have tonnes of DLC packs left, so they can't just give them out to every major third-party company they have collaborated with. They have to balance what they have to gain and have to lose, and third-parties are more expensive and have reduced odds of being able to easily be reused for future expansions. Plenty of first-party characters could create major waves within the Smash fandom and amongst Nintendo fans. Heck, Imran Khan just happened to tweet a thread speculating about a first-party-heavy pass while this discussion was going on.

Maybe the new Smash character won’t be that exciting, but I am curious where they go from here.

— Imran Khan (@imranzomg) June 21, 2020

I'm not saying all the DLC will be first-party or anything - far from it. I just don't think you can write off all first-party characters as promotional or bust. It's more middling then that, I think.

 

[RouffWestie]

I mean... I wouldn't call PP or Byleth "historically important" either. And if sales/general gaming history were our main metrics, we would have had a VERY different first season.

I'd argue the only DLC from Pass 1 that would still be there would have been Hero, in that case.

Here's the kicker for Plant. Plant was not chosen by Nintendo. Would Nintendo pick a similar character if they were in charge of the roster? They haven't so far... I'm not sure they would.
Had Three Houses been released on 3DS somehow, Byleth would have definitely had a harder time being chosen. 3DS was not a focus for Nintendo when Ultimate's DLC was decided. Promotional potential gave him a huge easy boost, he had a much easier time being chosen among the competition. He's the purest example of the cases I am trying to emphasize for first-parties.
The idea of "main metrics," isn't helpful for speculation anyway and I'm not even arguing that. A character's benefits are cumulative. More than one reason to add a character is considered when adding said character. The fact is, some just have less reason to be added than others, and most of those end up being the first-party characters. That's why having a new title on Nintendo's current system that they can represent can be a game-changer for these characters, (ARMS and Three Houses were also some of the only ones that had good enough timing to be chosen so they're even luckier than others.)

Again, PP and Byleth got in while Astral Chain and Ring Fit got spirited, despite the latter being arguably one of Nintendo's most successful new IPs, if not THE most successful new first party IP of the Switch era as of now.

Well poor timing resulted in those 2 being out of the equation from the get-go. A game can be successful, but it doesn't help if they're already done choosing the characters that are going to be DLC.

I do get where you're coming from in a way, as the past two games have left me with a similarly cynical view of first party additions, but... I just don't think these are really the reasons why.

Smash DLC has yet to offer anything substantial I can say in favor of first-party characters with little promotional value that Nintendo would add as DLC. Lucas, Mewtwo, and Roy, three veterans who got in because Smash 4 didn't have all the veterans and these were highly requested characters to come back. A huge megaton of first-party picks when Ultimate released, many that fans wanted, some from recent games, others fairly irrelevant. Then Ultimate's DLC comes along and... nothing so far. I don't have anything to go off of to say they have a good chance of making it in without a new release on the horizon.

also DM me if you want to keep this discussion going, because I don't have anything else to say here, I've tried to lay it out as simply as possible.

 

[Drason]

I'll never get the logic behind statements like "they won't ignore third parties, there's too many popular characters there". You know, the reverse is true too, right?

I know I'm mad late responding to this but I see a lot more people requesting 3rd-party characters like Steve from Minecraft than 1st party ones, the only one I can immediately think of is Waluigi, so the logic I'm going with is that they're probably going to follow the highest demand for some of the picks

Anyways

Pokeball Pokemon
Chance-0%
Can't really see them devoting resources to removing Pokemon that didn't originally make the cut in this game. I'm sure they'd rather promote a different Pokemon for the roster for a future event or game expansion.
Want-0%
I really have no desire to see any of the Pokemon that are in Pokeballs in the main game. I think they function fine enough as is.

 

[GoodGrief741]

RouffWestie Honestly the third party characters with insurmountable demand, historical significance etc etc don't even seem to be the ones we're getting, I mean we got Joker, a character from a 2017 game with little Smash demand, DQ, probably the closest to your definition, Banjo, who has the demand but isn't unbeatable in historical significance, and Terry who had some significance but very little demand. We haven't been getting Lara Crofts, is what I'm saying, and I don't expect we're going to start now, so to pretend that first party characters can't get in because of standards that almost none of the past DLC characters have cleared is pretty wack.

I know I'm mad late responding to this but I see a lot more people requesting 3rd-party characters like Steve from Minecraft than 1st party ones, the only one I can immediately think of is Waluigi, so the logic I'm going with is that they're probably going to follow the highest demand for some of the picks

I don't know where you're looking then.

 

[fogbadge]

Here's the kicker for Plant. Plant was not chosen by Nintendo. Would Nintendo pick a similar character if they were in charge of the roster? They haven't so far... I'm not sure they would.
Had Three Houses been released on 3DS somehow, Byleth would have definitely had a harder time being chosen. 3DS was not a focus for Nintendo when Ultimate's DLC was decided. Promotional potential gave him a huge easy boost, he had a much easier time being chosen among the competition. He's the purest example of the cases I am trying to emphasize for first-parties.
The idea of "main metrics," isn't helpful for speculation anyway and I'm not even arguing that. A character's benefits are cumulative. More than one reason to add a character is considered when adding said character. The fact is, some just have less reason to be added than others, and most of those end up being the first-party characters. That's why having a new title on Nintendo's current system that they can represent can be a game-changer for these characters, (ARMS and Three Houses were also some of the only ones that had good enough timing to be chosen so they're even luckier than others.)


Well poor timing resulted in those 2 being out of the equation from the get-go. A game can be successful, but it doesn't help if they're already done choosing the characters that are going to be DLC.

Smash DLC has yet to offer anything substantial I can say in favor of first-party characters with little promotional value that Nintendo would add as DLC. Lucas, Mewtwo, and Roy, three veterans who got in because Smash 4 didn't have all the veterans and these were highly requested characters to come back. A huge megaton of first-party picks when Ultimate released, many that fans wanted, some from recent games, others fairly irrelevant. Then Ultimate's DLC comes along and... nothing so far. I don't have anything to go off of to say they have a good chance of making it in without a new release on the horizon.

also DM me if you want to keep this discussion going, because I don't have anything else to say here, I've tried to lay it out as simply as possible.

well know byleth probably still would have made it in cuase sakurai loves fire emblem. in fact your argument that nintendo is picking characters from business perspective is surely a strike against shill picks, surely a character with well established popularity, like rex, bandana dee and wamemeigi, are more profitable than shilling a character representing a game without clear popularity yet

poor timing did not hamper ring fit or astral chain, the latter came out around the same time and the former did come out later if three houses was in plenty time for fp1 then it would be in time for fp2

but the arms character is something substantial, a character sakurai would have included in the base roster had he been able to surely signals good things for 1st party characters like rex and anyone else who falls into this category, sure rex is the only one we know who fits into this category but the idea that nintendo and sakurai would leave out a character because theyre not profitable just doesnt track after they included a niche character like terry a character who represents a series the fandom felt had far to many characters like byleth

 

[Sari]

Day over.

We've come a long way but now we're finally here: it's time for ARMS Direct predictions.

Predict everything you think we'll see in Monday's Direct. How will the trailer go down? Which characters do you think are the most likely to be the ARMS rep? What stage/music/Mii Costumes will be revealed? These are just a few of the many questions you can answer through your predictions.

Day will end once the Direct is over, after which we will be doing ARMS Direct reactions.

Megadoomer

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Definitely won't be the only one but I'm putting it all on Min Min. Currently less confident in the multiple characters scenario and I just feel she has the most things pointing towards her.

Ramen bowl will be the stage as well, tho altered to not be a walkoff. All character themes will be included and all ARMS characters who don't already have spirits will get one. Mii costumes will also be primarily from ARMS such as costumes for Ninjara, Kid Cobra, Lola pop and Misango. Not sure if there'll be a deluxe costume but if there is one I'm thinking it will be Geno.

Dr. Eggman x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

ARMS Predictions
Personally, I'm on the Spring Man train here. Not much else to say. Part of me wants it to be him because I really don't want to deal with people saying "SEE, HE'S NO LONGER THE MASCOT! THEY'RE GONNA PICK SOMEONE ELSE FOR THAT ROLE IN ARMS 2!", but also because I really think he's the best character to represent the franchise.

For a stage, I think we could get Spring Stadium or Sky Arena. The reason I think the latter is possible is because it's the only stage in ARMS that you'll always see in Arcade runs, plus the fact that it actually could have a bottom blast zone. Characters like Terry show that the stage can be associated with the series rather than the fighter.

The songs will probably include nearly all - if not all of the stage temes and the main theme for ARMS, plus mybe te Hedlok theme for a total of about 17 songs. For Spirits, well... there are 10 playable characters not in the game yet, for starters, plus Biff and Hedlok - the latter of which might be present as an evolution of Dr. Coyle. I think we'll see most of them, except for maybe Misango, Lola Pop and Springtron.

For Mii Costumes, I'm betting on at least one completely new first party costume (a new ARMS Brawler costume? Min Min as a Gunner with the Dragon? Who knows.) And another premium indie Mii costume (my prediction goes to either Cadence or The Knight). If we get more unrelated Mii Costumes from tird parties - like Ubisoft's with Byleth, then I'm thinking we could see the return of either the Monster Hunter or the Namco Mii Costumes.

Nominations
Alex Kidd Mii Costume x 5

 

[Perkilator]

I predict we'll see LEGS
Joking aside, here's what I think we'll see:

-The reveal of the ARMS character
-A history of ARMS
-A demonstration of the character
-Sakurai will show us his house for a bit
-Mii Costumes
-Sakurai will say something that'll become a meme

And this is wishful thinking on my part, but maybe the release window for CP7? Not the character themselves, but the release window.

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×3
Sakura Shinguji ×2

 

[DaUsername]

Upgraded pocket man
Chance: 0.01%
I don't expect an AT upgrade to happen, and that also applied to Pokeballs, too. Though there's another reason I don't think this will happen, the Pokémon DLC character will be from Gen 8. Considering the fact that none of the current Pokeballs are from Gen 8, this concept doesn't seem likely.
Want: 0%
As I've said before, I think the Pokémon franchise is perfectly fine with the 10 characters it has now. Even then, there aren't really any Pokeballs that interest me.

Anyway, for tomorrow's presentation, I predict a character from the game ARMS will be announced.
Noms: Paper Mario x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Predictions

- Min-Min as the character is my guy hunch
-ARMS classic mode play through
-Geno Mii Costume with Forest Maze
-While not FP2, somethjng

 

[Megadoomer]

My predictions are:

-Min Min as the character - I don't know much about ARMS, but she seems like the most popular one, and I'd find it weird to do this three month long guessing game and get the fanbase's hope up for anyone in the ARMS roster if it wound up being Spring Man, who seems to be the blandest option

-ARMS classic mode playthrough (Terry's presentation was stretched out to 45 minutes for the same reason)

-Mii costumes, which will include one that comes with a song (similar to Cuphead and Sans) that will overshadow the playable character who's being revealed at the same time (similar to Cuphead and Sans)

-a guest appearance by Sakurai's cat

I hope that we get an announcement of a Nintendo Direct where they'll reveal the next character, since we haven't had a proper Nintendo Direct (not a mini one, and not focused on one particular game) since Banjo's release over nine months ago, but I doubt it.

 

[fogbadge]

im thinking min min as well, im not if sakurai would update an assist trophy otherwise id probably say springman. so in that case min min as the most popular or ribbon girl as the other mascot are the most likely. i dont really want to rule anyone out but thats the way i see it.
as for stage I imagine theyll just have the one that matches the character, though i think out of the fifteen stages in arms and the minigames there isnt a single one id object to as a smash stage. but i imagine itd be ramen bowl for min min of ribbon arena for ribbon girl. or maybe just spring mans stage as it is the most natural of choices.
music i can see just about anything getting in, though id be surprised if the title theme wasnt used at all. i imagine the signature theme of the stage would get a new remix.
mii costumes i can see there being a couple more arms ones, maybe ninjara and master mummy, dont know why those two seem likely to me. beyond that im sure we'll get the usual returning and surprises we usually get.
do we do spirits as well?

do we still get our noms?

 

[3DSNinja]

I'm guessing t Min Min and Ninjara, with the state being sky Arena. All of the songs will come with them, and there will be a Steve Deluxe Mii Costume revealed at the end. And a classic mode like always. As wekl, they'll announce the date of the next reveal at the end....
Nominations: Shuichi Saihara x5

 

[Drason]

RouffWestie .

I don't know where you're looking then.

Social Media sites like Twitter and Instagram

ARMS DIrect:

Prediction Twintelle or Min Min seeing as there is a lot of love for these two.

A Mii Costume from an Indie game or a character who's rights would be harder to obtain like Geno.

 

[Ridrool64]

Let's guess the contents of tomorrow's Challenger Pack!

It's one, or more, of the following 7: Spring Man, Min-Min, Ribbon Girl, Ninjara, Max Brass, Twintelle, Dr. Coyle. Can't see anybody else getting picked, mostly because none of them make any sense. Beyond that I really have no clue. If they want to throw us a curveball by making it none of the 7, Biff is at the top and the cops were at the bottom to begin with due to developmental issues, now that'd be a good way to throw away lots of goodwill with anybody on the left.

Opens with a preamble before the trailer. If it's Spring Man, the fact that he's an Assist Trophy will be referenced in the trailer (summoned by somebody, he doesn't go away after a while, then defeats his summoner before the tagline). If it isn't, then it could play out like Terry's but beyond that I have no idea.

Sakurai discusses the challenges of working at home, and maybe a few of its advantages. One of his quotes will become a meme.

He elaborates on how the ARMS character works. Also the content: 10 ~ 13 songs, Spirits consisting of the characters not yet Spirits who didn't get in (Either Hedlok is the legend, or one of Max Brass/Dr. Coyle). The board would also include the base-game Spirits. Stage is the one that matches up with the Fighter we got.

Sakurai has some sort of final, special message before rolling Mii's, but I have no idea what.

Mii time. Since it's Nintendo, there's gonna be a lot less Nintendo than you'd think. A Capcom Costume, possibly some new FGC costumes like Scorpion or Sol Badguy, and other misc costumes. Probably a special costume again (once that looks nothing like the Mii, and has a music track with it), though I doubt this one will be indie (not that there won't be indie costumes, I just think this one will be from an in-between or AAA publisher). It'll be somebody who one-ups the ARMS rep the way everybody since Banjo got one-upped. At least one major character in speculation dies tomorrow.

A final thank you message for watching, a release date, and a farewell come afterwards. Some upcoming Thursday or Friday: this one, the next one, or the one after that. After that, we go back in the dark with nothing to look forward to beyond the ARMS day. (Personally, I don't think we're seeing Smash for the rest of the year (not because development is behind, but because marketing is), but we might get a teaser from September - November.)

P.S. Frisk x 5.

 

[Sari]

After I started today's rating, I immediately went back to bed since I stayed up to like 2:00 am the other night. Most likely because I was thinking of nothing but ARMS at the time, I had a crazy dream of how the Direct would go. This obviously won't happen but maybe some part of my dream was prophetic so here it is:

Spoiler: My weird ass dream

• There was a new stage that took place on a model trainset.
• I thought about the Mimiga Village theme from Cave Story and started choking to death on my tears while my brother watched.
• I tried to take a video of the Direct, but some random guy walked in front of me and had his shadow block everything.
• ARMS Trailer (shown at the end for some reason):
  • A bunch of brand new ARMS characters were shown with some weird looking Pixar dragons who are evil scientists, making me think one of them would be the character.
  • Suddenly a shot of a volcano is shown and Min Min's yellow arm stretches out.
  • Gameplay of Min Min fighting where she had some weird special move that would summon some giant green monster thing that is the size of Final Destination.
  • Ending of the trailer was Min Min leaving some farm area, but then a bunch of shadow enemy things were gonna attack some villagers and she stayed behind to defeat them.

This wasn't the first Smash dream I've had but it was definitely the weirdest.

Ok onto the actual predictions:

-----

ARMS Direct predictions

So right now I'm split between three choices of who the ARMS character could be. I'll post the pros and cons each of them has going for their inclusion:

• Spring Man with at least one other character as an alt
  • Pros: Mascot/face of the game first has basically always been a thing. Spring Man makes sense but it would just feel so weird for the single ARMS rep to be him after all of this speculation and waiting. Would also be a good way for them to showcase the various other ARMS characters if Nintendo plans to push it out as their next big thing.
  • Cons: Having characters as alts means they probably wouldn't stay true to their original fighting style. Plus if Sakurai didn't give Terry his Garou alt then he probably wouldn't go out of his way to essentially make additional fighters when he doesn't have to; Hero might have just been a special exception to cater to oldschool JRPG fans while Alph and Koopalings would've been less damaging to their source material as this potentially would.
• Min Min
  • Pros: One of the most popular characters.
  • Cons: People tend to use that one NintendoVS contest as the almighty proof that Min Min is the most popular, when there are still other very popular characters like Ninjara. Plus Edelgard getting snubbed over Byleth shows that popularity isn't everything.
• Max Brass
  • Pros: I never really talked about him but he has a big role in the story. If Sakurai does decide "no spirits/AT's as characters" then Brass is probably the way to go.
  • Cons: It just feels like all of the spirit characters are much more liked, so it's hard to see Brass having priority over all of them.

I'll probably be wrong on this buuuuuut... I'm slightly leaning towards it being Spring Man with character alts. If it's not that then I think it'll definitely be Min Min. And if it's not her for some reason then it'll be either Max Brass, one of the other spirit characters, or Dr. Coyle.

Now as for who I want... honestly I'm down for just about anyone that isn't solo Springtron or some brand new ARMS character, so as long as it isn't those two I won't be too upset. That said though, I'm still hoping the rep is one of the spirit characters (preferably Ribbon Girl, Min Min, or Twintelle) or Lola Pop.

Other predictions:

• Regardless of who the character is, their trailer will feature the ARMS characters trying to grab the Smash invite in a variety of ways like in Terry's trailer.
• If the character is Spring Man, Sakurai will just mention that his AT won't show up in battle if you are playing as him.
• All of the character's alt colors will be based on other ARMS characters (much like how Shulk's are based on his party members).
• Stage will be the actual stage of whoever is the rep. Funnily enough the stages of Spring Man, Min Min, and Max Brass all seem like good fits to represent ARMS.
• All of the 15 character themes will make it in along with some additional songs.
• Classic mode playthrough with the general theme being long-reaching enemies.
• Mii Costumes: I think we'll get at least one indie costume so I'm gonna guess Quote and Hat Kid. Also we'll definitely get another Deluxe Mii Costume (maybe Quote for that?).
• I don't think we'll get an exact reveal time for FP7 because of the virus affecting things, though I can see Sakurai saying that the reveal will be soon.

Nominations:
Quote x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Predictions:

• The character will be Springman. There might be a Springtron or Ribbon Girl alt costume.
• We'll get a deluxe Mii Costume. My pick for that would be Hollow Knight or Geno.
• IDK enough about ARMS to predict anything music or stage related.
• The classic mode will be like Ryu/Ken/Terry.
• Sakurai will say something about how ARMS got screwed over by being in development at the same time as SSBU base roster.
• Sakurai's cat will make an appearance, whether it's just doing cat stuff in the background or being disruptive.
• Some kind of an update on how the virus is affecting the DLC development.

And because I'm bored, on to some Smash Community/RTC predictions(This is satire. Mostly)

• Some characters are going to get severely over rated chance scores should we get a spirit/assist trophy upgrade.
• Someone is going to nom "Concept: Only Spirit/Assist trophy upgrades". I'll probably give it double 0's saying something along the lines of "there are way too many non spirit/assist trophy characters I want to see playable."
• I'm going to be seeing posts (both here and on other sites) saying something like "spirits never deconfirmed, only morons ever thought they did" despite this rule actually being valid for the base roster and FP1.
• Way too many posts will be made saying that x character is now a lock, with the only evidence being "but ARMS rep got in, they can just do the same thing for my character"
• The fake leaks will all end up being 5 spirit/assist trophy upgrades, along with the complete story of how Sakurai and Nintendo picked the characters, strangely in depth details on why each character was picked, the movesets, music tracks, and stage for all of them. They'll start the post off by saying they want to stay anonymous(despite the fact that if someone actually did leak all this info it wouldn't be too hard to figure out who did it) and end by saying "you don't have to believe me"(Even though no real leaks I know of have ever said this)
• There will be another Banjo vs Steve war but with different characters. It will end up being as annoying as the first one. I predict Waluigi vs Geno.

Noms: Alex Mason x5

 

[BowserKing]

Prediction: Arms Rep

My Prediction is that the Arms Rep is either Spring-Man or Min-Min

While Spring-Man is an assist Trophy, it does not mean discomfirmation. With that said, if he joined the fight, his assist could be replaced by someone like Spring-Tron or Bark n Bite. If not, then his Assist won't show up.

For Min-Min, she is quite popular, and she has potential to join the Battle. While she is a spirit, she could be promoted from Spirit to playable, but then again, who knows what will happen.

We would obviously get a trailer, plus a few Mii Costumes. First Party Mii Costumes are possible, since we did get Team Rocket Mii Costumes as DLC. It might be possible that we may get a teaser for the next fighter.

Noms: 2 for Gyigas and 3 for Gooigi

 

[CureParfait]

Prediction

-Spring Man would be the Arms rep
- His Assist Trophy won't show up when you are playing him
- The trailer might be the continuation of the Incineroar one
-Bits of Spring Man gameplay
- Sakurai explaining about ARMS and Spring Man

 

[amageish]

Realistic Predictions:
- Character is revealed, possibly via in-game trailer a la Sm4sh DLC to cut costs
- ARMS history is discussed
- Sakurai apologizes for how ARMS missed the base roster
- Sakurai discusses how the pandemic has affected the games industry
- Sakurai apologizes for future character delays if they happen or he is thankful for his team's coordination to the point where there will be no delays
- ARMS Stage is shown off, which features stage cameos in some form
- Said stage cameos are explained in great detail
- Decisions behind the ARMS fighter's alternate colourations are explained
- ARMS fighter's classic mode is shown off in its entirety
- Mii costumes are shown off featuring one Mii Costume with music, likely based on a mid-to-high profile indie franchise

Less Realistic Predictions, but They Are Possible:
- Sakurai gives us an in-universe history of ARMS and mediates on what he would do if he woke up one morning with the extendable ARMS power
- Fighter Pass 1 Amiibo Line Announced and Shown Off
- Due to the success of Cuphead/Sans, they will now release more then one Mii Costume with music per each Mii Costume bundle

Downright Unrealistic Predictions, But They'd Be Amazing:
- In honour of Spring Man's favourite food, Sakurai spends 10 minutes of the presentation in his kitchen doing a cooking tutorial for his personal favourite pizza recipe, which the English translation refers to as the Masahiro SakuraPie
- Sakurai Presents pulls a Pokemon Presents and announces a second live stream in the coming weeks for FP7

Nominations: Moogle x 5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Aside from the general agreed upon content predictions, I've basically got two big guesses as to who out ARMS rep is gonna be tomorrow, both depending on several factors.

If Spirits and Assist trophies ARE on the table:

Spring Man is the best bet. Mascot of the franchise and the face that is still pushed most when it comes to marketing. I know a lot of people expect Min Min or Twintelle, but not only do we not have the main character precedent broken, but there's an important question to ask: When has popularity ever come into play to affect a promotional character to advertise a game? We always get a pre-chosen choice over a naturally popular one. A lot of pople wanted Decidueye, we got Incineroar (though I like Incinerorar so I'm not complaining), or Byleth before Edelgard. History could and will likely repeat itself here. No matter how popular other characters are, Spring Man is still the mascot. True we could get a Hero-esque situation, but the faithfulness of cramming four distinct characters into identically-playing alts is a whole different discussion.


If Spirits and Assists are NOT on the table:

My best bet goes to Max Brass, Helix, or Dr. Coyle, with the edge leaning to Max Brass. Out of the non-spirit characters, these three are the most significant, and are even significant compared to them. Helix has been used as a second mascot of sorts, and has the kinda crazy design Sakurai would love to utilize. Brass and Coyle are extremely important to the ARMS lore, and make a great case as to why they should represent the series (Founder and champion of ARMS league, and the founder of the ARMS as a whole). Alongside that, Max Brass, despite being a DLC character, has had a major presence in the game since the start, was a very hyped-up character, and also has the benefit of playing a lot like Spring Man. If Spring Man is off the table and the Smash team wants to use a Spring Man-esque character, then Max Brass is by far the best bet. Especially since he doesn't have a bunch of other gimmicks to account for (and it was already difficult enough developing the stretchy arm gimmick), so he could be seen as the easy choice. The champion being playable, with the assist trophy challenger looking up to his position feels like a natural dynamic.


Outside of these, developmental updates, a brief history/explination of ARMS, and the Mii Costume montage seem like the order of the day, and I don't expect much else in the way of surprises.


Nominations:
Austin the Butler x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

ARMS predictions

I'ma go with Spring Man, recent developments have made me more confident in his inclusion. He'll have, at the very least, Ribbon Girl as an alt.

The trailer won't be a Terry-style thing like everyone is expecting.

The stage won't be Ramen Bowl, even if the character is Min Min. My bet is on Ribbon Ring or Sky Arena.

We'll get two ARMS Mii Costumes. If Min Min isn't the character, she'll be one. The other will be either Twintelle, Max Brass, or Lola Pop. We'll get one new Mii Costume, one returning, and a premium for Hollow Knight.

Finally, I predict that Smashboards will go to war over this character and the implications, and yet people will still call them predictable and unexciting.

Noms: ****ing Tidus x5

do we still get our noms?

Yes

 

[SharkLord]

I predict Spring Man. He'd represent the gameplay of ARMS the best, he's pushed in the marketing the most, and he'd open the doors to a mostly promotion-based pass. I know Min Min's popular, but popularity isn't the only factor-For example, Byleth was added over the more popular Edelgard, due to being the face of the game.

The stage is likely Sky Arena, because c'mon, it's an arena in the sky. Can't get more Smash-like than that. Given the first pass, we'll probably have some cheering fans and character cameos in the background.

The Miis won't be too major. Remember, we didn't get a PreMiium with Terry. It'll probably be a smaller type of thing, without any themes

Sakurai's cats completely steal the show and become the most talked-about part of the video. Meanwhile, Sakurai does some sort of mundane thing that instantly becomes a meme. Perhaps both at once.

Salt. You know it's gonna happen. Don't deny the inevitable.

Nomination: Klonoa x5

 

[Ninjaed]

ARMS direct predictions

Right now, I see 3 likely candidates:
- the popular ones: Min Min or Twintelle. It's been said time and again, I won't go any further here, you all know what I'd be saying anyway.
- the shill pick: ARMS 2 rep. A few too many coincidences for ARMS 2 to be handwaved as a wild theory. And if Nintendo is smart, now's the perfect time to hype it up... which it seems they've laid the groundwork for already.

No, I don't think it will be Spring Man so if I am to predict something, it's that it won't be him. I'll be honest, Spring Man would be the single most disappointing pick... behind Springtron. 6 months of build up only to reveal it was the basic pick all along that's already in as an AT? Ugh... Sorry I meant, "yay, I'm so excited, woohoo, never saw that coming". And unfortunately, part of me does fear it'll be him anyway...

Stage will feature cameos from the game, including Biff. The stage itself will be fairly basic, as in no gimmicks. We'll get the usual few additional mii costumes + another HD mii costume. If I were to guess, I'd say Hollow Knight as a Mii Swordfighter. Otherwise, a Mii Brawler one. And if I were to give a name, Shantae? Several possible candidates but the trend seems to be indies so...
Sakurai will also give us an explanation for the delay, an estimation of when to expect the reveal for the next one... and a tease. That is, "next fighter will be from this series" without specifying who. If they don't want the spotlight to be stolen from ARMS during their own reveal while also hyping up the next one (hype has kinda died down, zero made a video on "smash ultimate is dying"), that's the most obvious way they'll go at it. I mean, covid forced them to delay everything and it seems to be their response so...

That'll be all, there won't be much else about smash.

Nominations: concept: new ATs as one new item x5

 

[fogbadge]

Spoiler: My weird ass dream

• There was a new stage that took place on a model trainset.
• I thought about the Mimiga Village theme from Cave Story and started choking to death on my tears while my brother watched.
• I tried to take a video of the Direct, but some random guy walked in front of me and had his shadow block everything.
• ARMS Trailer (shown at the end for some reason):
  • A bunch of brand new ARMS characters were shown with some weird looking Pixar dragons who are evil scientists, making me think one of them would be the character.
  • Suddenly a shot of a volcano is shown and Min Min's yellow arm stretches out.
  • Gameplay of Min Min fighting where she had some weird special move that would summon some giant green monster thing that is the size of Final Destination.
  • Ending of the trailer was Min Min leaving some farm area, but then a bunch of shadow enemy things were gonna attack some villagers and she stayed behind to defeat them.

ill give you a tenner for the rights to that story

Yes

should i edit my post or can i just leave nate adams x5 here?

 

[Aetheri]

Narrowing it down to a few characters.

Spring Man
-the obvious pick being the mascot. Being an assist trophy is something that complicates his chances, on one hand Sakursi could say "Spring man is already an assist trophy so we decided to pick someone else" but on the other Sakurai could just as very well just pick him in the game because "this is my game I do what I want" I see both as being rather likely.
However it is curious the whole guessing game being done if it were just going to end up being springie bouncy anyways. Why show the fanbase that any character's up for grabs, only to make it the obvious choice? But at the same time, wynaut? Boi-oi-oing's still part of the roster, and he's not an unpopular character either....I honestly feel its a coin flip because his major cons could go either way.

Ribbon Girl
-secondary mascot, the one that's punching springaling in the face on the cover and is being marketed just barely less than boingyboing himself. If Spring a ring's coming in with additional character alts Ribbon girl's next in line. However if we're not getting the main mascot that means anyone else is on the table and while she is decently popular in her own right, there are other characters that could overshadow her

Min Min
-arguably the most popular character, she also won the Party Crash Bash which put her in a bit of a more prominent position over other characters in the roster. Imo she's the most likely if its not Spring a ding dong but that's not to say she has no competition either. Her abilities do give her a slight edge compared to bingboing and ribbon girl with her dragon arm and being the only character in Arms that actually kicks (of course kicking isn't exactly something the other fighters are incapable of doing, but Min Min's been noted to specificslly use her kicks)

Twintelle
-remember how much people freaked out when she was revealed? Devs even took note of her popularity and she's seen as one of the most popular next to Min Min. As far as her importance in game she falls short in importance due to neither being a promoted mascot or winning a significant online tournament. She'd be chosen based on sheer popularity alone and even still Min Min could still have the advantage in this area.

Max Brass/Dr. Coyle
-either one would get in for similar reasons and that would be because of their involvement in the game's lore/story Brass is the champion to beat and coyle's the big bad of the game. Imo Brass would probably have the edge out of the two due to being more popular and being more orominent as a character in the gsme but regardless they are both lower in priority over the previously mentioned characters as promotional fighters and in popularity.

Verdict
Boing a loing a spring sprong-50%
Min Min-30%
Ribbon Girl-10%
Twintelle-5%
Max Brass-2%
Dr. Coyle-2%
Everyone Else-1%

Stage
-Not expecting anything too crazy, so it could be just the simple Spring Stadium or Ramen Bowl (depending on which character gets added of course) but a transformation stage that changes between different arenas could also work as well to give a wider range of representation for the game.

Mii Costumes
-Hollow Knight Mii Swordfighter
-Phoenix Wright Mii Brawler
-Chun-Li Mii Brawler
-Shantae Mii Gunner (uses her canon)
-Shovel Knight Mii Swordfighter

 

[Jomosensual]

Predictions time!

Trailer - The trailer will be a continuation of the Ken/Incineroar one. After Roary dispatches of his new set of challengers Springman will show up, hit him with a few arms moves, and then KO him into the scoreboard as well with a loud KO!!!! playing in the background.

Character - The Arms rep I feel the most strongly about is Springman. He will either be a solo fighter or have a Springtron alt. No alts for Ribbon Girl, Min Min, etc. I think we get his AT replaced by either Springtron or Ribbon Girl who do the same thing as the past one. No echo fighters.

Spirits - The rest of the characters that aren't spirits with get them along with Biff. The Springman battle will now just be fighting Springman and that will ALSO turn into his unlock battle in World of Light.

Stage - The stage will be Spring Stadium. Other Arms characters will show up in the background including Biff. There will also be someone screaming KO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!(with exactly that amount of !s) every time someone dies.

Music - There are 0 music tracks from Arms in the game. Obviously the main theme is coming. The more major characters will have their stage themes in the game too.

Mii Costumes - No premium costumes will be in this one. We get back the Monster Hunter, Heihachi, and Lloyd costumes along with some for Astral Chain.

Extra stuff - We'll get a very brief lesson on Arms after the reveal. The alt costumes will rep other fighters. Sakurai will show us playing SPringman either in the classic mode or in a random fight like he did Byleth. Sakurai will talk about fighters pass amiibos, which he says are coming but have been delayed due to coronavirus. He will have a model for Jokers ready and show that one off. He'll also at some point mention that we won't have to wait as long to see the next DLC fighter but that will be all he says on it

Noms:
Riptor x5