Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Calamitas]

Virgin Incineroar & Mewtwo vs Chad Bubsy: Insert Cat Pun Here

Chance: 0%
This one's pretty simple. As far as I know, not a single Bubsy game has received any kind of noteworthy reception or success, with his biggest modern-day claim to fame being moreso infamy due to the poor quality of his games. Sure, there has been a modern revival, but even that hasn't broken that trend. There is absolutely no conceivable timeline where I could see Nintendo picking the Bubsy series to be Smash DLC. And this isn't even going into the question of the series' popularity in Japan. It's not happening.

Want: 7.5%
Ehhh, I suppose Bubbsy's inclusion could make for an entertaining joke, but that joke would wear its welcome out quick. Even this want rating might be a bit generous, honestly.

Nominating. . . oh, I'll need something new, now that the Zelda character concept is a lock. Let's see. . . oh, I know.
Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly First-Party. I would word it as "exclusively", but that might run the risk of the concept being outdated before it even gets a chance to be rated, seeing as there's at least a chance that we'll get the second fighter revealed at the time E3 would've been.

Predictions:
Spring Man - 67.26%
Ribbon Girl - 65.92%
Ninjara - 18.37%

 

[Perkilator]

Since my boi Sirfetch’d is finally gonna get some time to shine, I think I’ll change my nomination to Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies.

• Poppant: Runs around dropping healing items and rocks
• Auroros: Dives into the ground after flying above its target; can be used a throwing item once it gets stuck
• Jyk: Floats around and attacks using a Hydro barrier. It can also follow up with one of two attacks:

>It can turn into a Zap Jyk and spin around (sucking in enemies) until it lets put a burst of electricity
>It can turn into a Flame Jyk and shoot out flames from its spikes, turning either from a T shape to an X shape or vice-versa

 

[chocolatejr9]

Bubsy

Chance: 0%
Are we all in agreement this isn't happening? A notorious character from a terrible franchise, with one of his games considered among the worst of all time. I don't see him happening in this life, the next life, or even the life after that.

Abstain on want. I don't actually have an opinion on Bubsy.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5 (darn you, NintenRob you're making me work for this.)

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

This was supposed to be the week of abysmally low ratings, wasn't it
Double zeroes
I'm honestly willing to bet Bubsy wouldn't even be half as remembered if Jontron never made a video about the franchise. Bubsy's sheer existence is just a joke, one developers tried to capitalise on by producing mediocre, overpriced platformers. Woolies strike back, despite the shock of the series returning, was received as pretty below average and Paws on fire must've released with zero fanfare as I didn't know about it untill browsing Wikipedia recently. Shows how little people actually care about him. I see no reason would consider a character like this, especially since Bubsy's infamy might not even be known about in the east... or even the character himself.

Dr Eggman x5
Springman: 62.11%
Ribbon Girl: 49.81%
Ninjara: 36.72%

 

[Perkilator]

I find it funny that Bubsy's obnoxious voice in Bubsy 3D is also the voice of Lucas in Smash. Relevant clip I found while making the music post.

I just realized; Lani Manella could’ve totally recorded new voice clips for Lucas for at least Ultimate.

 

[BowserKing]

Bubsy

Chance: ???. I can already tell that competition is not going to be an issue, with all this negative feedback I have seen. Thanks to that, I don't know if he has a chance, hence I gave him a question mark rating.

Want: ???. Chances are, an assist trophy role would be a fitting choice, but as a playable fighter, it would be shocking and surprising. As long as fighters are fun to play as then the issue could be cleared, and it's not the first time not well liked characters gained popularity thanks to Smash. But the Assist trophy role is the best role for Bubsy.

Prediction: Spring Man, Ribbon-Girl and Ninjara (20%)

Noms: 2 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion and 3 for Stage: Bowser's Castle

 

[NintenRob]

Bubsy

Chance: 0%
Are we all in agreement this isn't happening? A notorious character from a terrible franchise, with one of his games considered among the worst of all time. I don't see him happening in this life, the next life, or even the life after that.

Abstain on want. I don't actually have an opinion on Bubsy.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5 (darn you, NintenRob you're making me work for this.)

Haha sorry, next time maybe

 

[chocolatejr9]

Haha sorry, next time maybe

You better at least participate on that day. It'd make me feel better...

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Bubsy Bobcat

Chance: 3% - He's not likely at all but more unexpected things have happened. Unlike a lot of other popular Smash picks, Bubsy has had a surprising amount of Nintendo history (Bubsy 1 and 2 on SNES, Paws on Fire on Switch, cancelled Switch port of Woolies Strike Back), and his games actually were being released in Japan. You also have plenty of games to pull from for moves. Furthermore it is notable that unlike a lot of other people cashing in on the "attitude animal mascot" craze, Bubsy actually managed to develop a series out of it, so credit where credit is due. But aside from that, he isn't gliding very far. His games are not known for their quality and never made gaming history of any kind, so he doesn't seem like a character Nintendo or Sakurai would prioritize. What doesn't help is that he's consistantly changing studios, and while he did get a revival alongside his company Accolade, it hasn't been very successful. Paws on Fire failed to get crowdfunding, and while he'd certainly be cheap to license, I don't know how much money he'd bring in. Some people do remember Bubsy from their childhood, but a lot of the attention came from Jontron's video back in 2013. A lot of the energy surrounding Bubsy was ironic meme energy, and that whole thing has lost steam for a lot of people. So even as a joke pick I don't see him happening.

Want: 60% - While I wouldn't want him over Crash, he'd honestly be an extremely funny choice that would make everyone's heads turn! Plus you can never have too many cereal mascots. If anything Bubsy does represent some kind of gaming history/era, even if it isn't the most well received one.


Nominations:
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (standalone) x5

Predictions:
Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Ninjara - 30.74%

 

[GoodGrief741]

So question, are we supposed to rate the Arms characters in a vacuum? The whole Hero/Bowser Jr theory might heavily inflate the ratings.

You can rate however you want. If the Hero/Jr thing is something you agree with, then you can rate taking it into account. If it isn't, then just rate the character's chances of getting in by themselves.

As long as the rating is explained - and I think people will want to explain their ratings tomorrow - nothing's forbidden. (Since it's still Bubsy's day, maybe I should have said furbitten?)

 

[Sid-cada]

Bubsy

Chance - 0% - A character whose most notable trait is being a failure, with one his games forever living in the Video Game Hall of Infamy. Honestly, he's nothing short of a laughingstock, a symbol of everyone who tried and failed to capture Sonic's magic. With a reputrare like that, why would he be chosen at all?

Want - 0% - He's a failure in almost every sense of the word. I have no desire to see him in smash, and any effort put into him would be better put into almost any other video game character.


Predictions

Spring Man - 35.45% - Assist Trophy doubs hinder him.

Ribbon Girl - 40.23% - I have no clue...

Ninjara - 25% - Likely, but not the face.


Nominations

Nippon Ichi rep X5

 

[Wario Wario Wario]

Bubsy

Chance: 1%
Only one of his games was released in Japan, dude's basically infamous for being bad. The only way he could get in is through Choice Provisions connections, but even then a Mii Costume seems more fit

Want: 80%
I love this dude! he's got a snarky 90s personality and some great music. It'd be a blast to have him in the game, perhaps his playstyle could be a speedy glass canon!

Nomination:
Jill (Drill Dozer)

 

[DaUsername]

Abstaining from Busboy.
Spring prediction: 50%
Ribbon prediction: 65%
Ninjara prediction: 25%
Noms: Gen 8 Pokémon x5

 

[SKX31]

Both Rob Paulsen and Lani Minella really want to forget this one: (Bubsy)

Chance: 0 %

IMHO the Charlotte Bobcat (NBA team who had a similarly fail-tastic history before rebranding into the Charlotte Hornets) would've stood a - miniscule, but still - chance if the re-launch had been successful. We know how that went. It does baffle me a bit that the character (and games) were consistently rushed and / or limited in budget. Oh wait, right. The publisher Accolade got way too hungry with Bubsy - IIRC Bubsy II's staff were hastily assembled and hated working on the game, for instance. Woolies Strikes Back faced a similar problem: being produced for infamy's sake and seemingly rushed out of the door. What's that proverb again? Oh right:

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

No wonder Woolies Strikes Back harmed Bubsy's prospects like Bubsy II did. Sure, he got another game, but I bet that'd be better recieved had WSB been much better recieved itself.

Hilariously enough: At the time of release ('96) Bubsy 3D got kind of okay-ish reviews overall - around 60 % all in all. With the "Gold X award" being a real thing - the review was 93 %, and wasn't the only high score Bubsy 3D got back in '96. (TBF some aspects of the game looked decent-to-good in a world where 3D platformers were new, but then SM64, Crash Bandicoot and I'd argue Tomb Raider buried Bubsy).

I feel really bad for 3D's developers: One of which saw Super Mario 64's beta and knew instantly that Bubsy 3D was in big trouble. Buuut they couldn't do anything about it since 3D was close to release when he saw SM64. Said developers went on to make Syphon Filter and Days Gone - proof that developers can rebound even after disaster strikes.
If only the winner of Electronic Gaming Monthly's "Most Hype for a New Character" award in 1993 (over characters like ... yeah that award didn't age well) had actually lived up to the hype long term. EGM notably turned on Bubsy with Bubsy 3D (December '96 issue):

Prescient reviews, if I say so myself.

His entire history is a shame really. Could Bubsy actually work? Yes. But seriously he and his games need to be fleshed out. Sonic's best games are lauded for being fleshed out, for instance. While the worst Sonic games? Infamous trainwrecks, often rushed out (Like Sonic 06, when SEGA released a lesser build because it was more stable). Easier said in hindsight of course - but even in the platforming crazy times called the 90s a lot of platforming mascots wimpered and died out because they were built as cashgrabs instead of fleshed out. Looking at you Awesome Possum.

Want: Abstain,

He's completely marred under, well, his entire legacy. There's a massive problem if people mostly remember the character for being consistently annoying. Then again, there's that twisted "What if" scenario: I don't want to give a 0 % because even a Sonic clone can have something going for it if implemented properly.

Preds:

Spring Man: 42 %
Ribbon Girl: 25 %
Ninjara: 22 %

Noms: Ahri x5

Also GoodGrief741 lemme guess. Remember your TED talk? If I may guess, did it revolv around the fact that if you played Bubsy II (Or the Jaguar-exclusive Fractured Furry Tales) then you were a masochist? Sounds about right.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Ok it's time for us to get stretching...

Today marks the first of our 5 weekly ARMS ratings, where we will have a day for ARMS-related discussion at the start of each new fixed rating week. Having the origin game of the next character be announced but not the character themselves is a first in Smash history, so we're going to capitalize on this as much as we can. Check the spoiler tag below for the full order of ARMS ratings that we'll go through:

Spoiler: ARMS Schedule

Day 1:
Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, and Ninjara

Day 2:
Min Min, Master Mummy, and Mechanica

Day 3:
Twintelle, Bite & Barq, and Kid Cobra

Day 4:
Helix, Max Brass, Misango, and Concept: ARMS rep has different characters as alts

Day 5:
Dr. Coyle, Lola Pop, Springton, and Concept: Brand New ARMS Character (not one of the 15 playable)

Day 1​

​

So for today, rate Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, and Ninjara.

Predict Concept: New Zelda character

Day will end sometime around Sunday night. The second ARMS day will occur about a week from now following the end of current schedule (after the Contra rep rating).

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the mood for today's ARMS characters:

Spoiler: Day 1 ARMS songs

 

[Perkilator]

Spring-a-ling!
Chance: Up in the air
If he truly was deconfirmed, he wouldn’t be among the candidates in the Mini Direct. Also given that since he’s technically the face of ARMS, Sakurai wouldn’t turn him down if he given the right chance.

Want: 0%
That said, I’m still doubtful. I know there’s no established rule, but I’m still a firm believer that if an Assist Trophy’s gonna be promoted, it’s going to be in the next game, as this is a trend that started with Smash 4. Long story short:
-, a Brawl Assist Trophy, was promoted on Smash 4
-, two Smash 4 Assist Trophies, we’re promoted in Ultimate

Now again, I’m not saying this is an indisputable fact. Just the more realistic scenario. And personally, I don’t want Sakurai to go through unnecessary work to reanimate am Assist Trophy in the same game.

Ribbon Girl and Ninjara
Chance: Up in the air
Like Spring Man, neither would‘ve among the candidates if Spirits factually deconfirmed. However, this is taking into consideration the 10 other candidates who aren‘t even present in any form in Ultimate’s base game.

Want: 0%
I like them as characters, and their playstyles. But in the end, I just prefer Min-Min.

New Zelda Character: 50%

Noms: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x5

 

[NintenRob]

This is interesting

Spring Man
Chance 65%
Want 90%
I don't give a **** he's an assist trophy, he's the mascot and star of the game. I know I've nominated a concept for the opposite, but that was more characters from games that already have their star. To me Spring Man should absolutely be the character, I mean he was chosen to be the assist trophy in the first place, that should say something. I don't like the idea that much of someone getting in before the main character. And

Ribbon Girl
Chance 45%
Want 70%
It's a weird one to rate, do I consider the possibility of them being an alt? Should I only consider the likelihood of them being default? Generally I think more positively about alts, I view them as their own character and will be rated as such, I think there's a good chance Spring Man will have alts, which might explain the mysterious nature of the reveal. And Ribbon Girl is prime candidate, especially since her special ability is made moot by everyone already have extra jumps.

Ninjara
Chance 35%
Want 60%
I think he's only chance is if he's an alt. I don't seem standing in the spotlight alone. But maybe as part of the four in one idea. I think he'd make it work quite well. The two mascots and two fan favourites.


Nominate no third parties in this pass x5

 

[3DSNinja]

Please.
Chance:30%: Definently the most likely of the ARMS crew besides one certain other individual. He's the mascot of the game, and he's the main character. It makes sense for it to be him.
Want:100%: One of my three most wanted characters from the game, along with Min-Min and Ninjara. Mostly for the fact that Isaac and shadow actually could happen if he got in.
Ninja Luffy
Chance:20%: He's the second most popular character in the game behind Min-Min, and also is the only arms character I can see with a viable recovery. He's also only a spirit, which if Sakurai cards about Assist and Jim costumes makes it much more in his favor.
Want:100%: My favorite character in the game, and he's also a ninja. As well, he has a teleport, which are always awesoms.
Forgot she existed.
Chance:5%: She's the least likely of the 4 big ARMS chars IMO. She's not fairly popular, isn't the mascot of the game, and is generally just kinda average.
Want:50%: I really don't care about her. I literally forgot she was in the game until we started talking about ARMS reps. In a game with 16 chars. Yeah... She's not really that interesting or unique, and she just doesn't give me anything unlike Spring man, who gives me a chance for Isaac, Shadow, and Shovel Knigt, she doesn't give me a character with an interesting personality and a cool design like Min-Min and Ninjara... She just exists.
Nominations: Gordon Freeman x5

 

[amageish]

Okay... I feel like an ARMS character with alts is possible, but not super likely. Therefore, I'm going to be rating most of these characters on the assumption that this is a zero-sum game and the total chances odds of every ARMS shouldn't exceed 100%... In other words, I'm being very picky with my math and will probably have lower-then-average scores...

That's only for chance though. I assume the want scores represent the precentage of our internal hype meter a character would fill up and that's not a zero-sum game.

Spring Man

Chance: 18%. Yeah, he's an assist, but I don't expect base game content will be used to justify excluding potential DLC characters releasing upwards of 3 years later (given how the DLC ends in 2021)... My main problem with Spring Man is that, as weird as it sounds, he makes too much sense? Like, I can't think of why Nintendo would pull a "HAHA! GUESS WHAT ARMS CHARACTER IT'LL BE?" if the reveal was going to be that it is... the mascot fighter of ARMS? He's certainly popular, both within the dev team and the community, with his first-round-elimination in the Party Crash Bash largely coming from him being pitted up against "You but cooler" in the form of Springtron in the first round. But, like, he's not the most popular character and I feel like it would be kind of a weird move on Nintendo's part to tease everyone about who it's going to be just to pull back the curtain and reveal the predictable choice... I think they have to have an ace up their sleeve somewhere.

That said, if it is an alt character, then Spring Man has to be the main character. I don't see them picking anyone else for that. He's also still the mascot character, so I'm giving him my second-most-likely slot.

Want: 80%. Had we been rating Spring Man prior to the ARMS reveal, I'd give him a 100%. But if we're waiting 3 months of speculation to reveal that another fighting game is being represented by the dude on the boxart, then I'm going to be left feeling a bit like Lola Pop taking off of her costume after a long match - deflated. I'll still be happy he's in and will be down for any ARMS music you throw at me, but he's not my number one choice.

Ribbon Girl

Chance: 10%. The number-two mascot of ARMS! She'd make a lot of sense for sure, especially as her mobility is kind of necessary for a Smash character to function... I kind of feel similarly about her and Spring Man regarding the teasing Nintendo's been doing, but she's still be more of a surprise just by the nature of not being the primary mascot.

Want: 83%. She's cool! I like her attitude and the idol/professional-athlete combo is funny to me. I'd be happy if she got in.

Ninjara

Chance: 5%. He's really popular in Japan and interviews have mentioned how the dev team felt excited designing him. Ninjas have been in Smash before, but that just proves their gimmicks can work out well. I don't see him as super likely, but he's a definite possibility...

Want: 80%. Sure! He's fun. And who doesn't love the idea of someone going to Ninja College. I wonder if they offer degree or certificate programs - or both, maybe? Depending on how passionate about ninja-ing you are?

Prediction: New Zelda Character, 30%.

Nominations: Level-5 Rep x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Human Spring
Chance: 50%
Being the poster boy of the game makes him the character most have their money on right now. While I believe that if we were to get multiple Arms characters as alts he'd certainly be amongst them, strangely, I do not see us getting Springman just by himself. There'd be no reason to showcase the whole roster and make us play Guess Who otherwise. If it was the most obvious choice, what would be the point?

Want: 50%
I actually played the Arms game trial for a little while so I actually have a small amount of experience with these characters. Springman may honestly be one of the generic options to me but he is the character that would shatter the most "rules". To the Upgrade Assist crowd he'd be a godsend, same with costumes and spirits. That last one in particular I'd be hyped for.

Belmont Jigglypuff
Chance: 60%
Ribbon Girl is another obvious contender for the hypothetical "Multiple Arms characters" character. By herself, she'd be a tad less obvious than Springman, making her likelier by my logic. And hey, she isn't an AT like him in case Sakurai still considers those to be out definitively .

Want: 50%
Compared to Springman, Ribbon Girl would open the way for upgrades for costumes and spirits but probably not for Assist trophies. Nothing I'd lose sleep over tho. The characters I'd appreciate seeing upgrated who belong to that group still aren't some of my most wanted. Also, Ribbon Girl herself I'd consider more interesting than Springman so I guess it would balance things out.

teleports behind you
Chance: 65%
Yet another character that belongs to the group of 4 obvious alts. Ninjara is also one of the most popular characters in the game and the most popular male character, being a Party Crash Bash finalist and all.

Want: 55%
Would debunk Spirits deconfirming which again, would be more than fine by me. A bit more appealing than the two mascots and he also happens to be first character I played in Arms, so that's something.

New Zelda Character: 24.70%
Dr Eggman x5

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

OOOOOOOoooooOOOOOoooo

Toothpaste Man

Chance: 70%
Imo, the most likely candidate when it comes to ARMS. Something that we need to keep in mind, is that Nintendo chose the fighter pass characters. He may already be an assist trophy but he's also the poster boy of the series, I'd be shocked if Nintendo prioritized someone else other than him. And I don't see something as minuscule as a character already having a role in the game stopping them from choosing said character if they really want them.

Want: 70%
Spring Man's my fourth choice when it comes to an ARMS rep. He's a little a basic, but you know what? I'll still take him if he's our only option. I feel like an ARMS rep in general made sense, there's so much potential when it comes to their stretchy ARMS gimmick. So if Spring Man gets in, cool, not quite my ideal choice but I'd still take him, nonetheless

Ribbonado

Chance 65%
The secondary mascot of the series, I feel like if Spring Man is out of the running due to his assist, then Ribbon Girl is absolutely their next option. She's already a mii costume, but I don't think that's detrimental as say... an Assist. And said costume was a base game thing. Needless to say, I think she's fairly plausible, depending on the circumstances.

Want: 30%
Ribbon Girl never really did it for me. She's a bit boring for my tastes. Like if we're going with a straight-to-the-punch poster child pick, I'd rather they just go Spring Man at that point. And her main gimmick, four jumps, while unique in ARMS itself, it'd probably blend in a little too much with the rest of the Smash cast.

Ninja School Boy

Chance: 50%
Ninjara's an interesting case, he's on the more popular side of things when it comes to the ARMS cast, yet I still don't think they'd prioritize him over say Spring Man or Ribbon Girl, they're still the mascots, after all. He does have a shot if they do go the Hero route, but I ain't holding my breath for that.

Want: 80% Ninjara's so cool, he's fun to use in ARMS too. Definitely on the higher side of things when it comes to ARMS wants. Oh, and if we do end up getting him, can we pleeeeeeaaaasssse get a remix of his stage theme? It's up there among the best tracks in the game.

New Zelda Character Prediction: 23%

Noms: Steve (rerate) x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

So before I get to my ratings I want to explain the criteria in which I'm rating these ARMS characters. The fact that they left all of the characters up for possibility makes me think multiple characters will happen as alts. But the thing is, many of the ARMS characters have differences when it comes to what their arms exactly are and all of them have a unique ability. Sakurai mentioned to expect a character with unprecedented tactics. This will probably have to do with the way he balances the character, but I have a wild theory. The character will have at least 4 alts and all of them will have unique properties and abilities. It will be almost like an echo pass within a challenger pack. I'm not expecting all the alts to be very unique. They will just have differences in their animations and have their signature ability to keep each character true to their play style in ARMS. Since this would add a good amount of development time, I'm thinking that if this happens, it will only be 4 alts in total. Thus I'm going to probably be really kind with some of these ratings and a bit harsh on some others since 4 out of 15 isn't good odds for some of these characters.

Spiringaroni

Chance: 70%

Here is the thing. Spring Man is the main mascot of the game so he can be considered the main character. But he is an assist trophy. But the main character always has gotten in the game first. So either way we are about to witness a new precedence for Smash speculation. Either the assist trophy rule is broken and assist trophies are 100% in contention, or Spring Man doesn't get in and it breaks the "Main playable character always has to get in first" rule.

Overall, I think the former is more likely. I've said it for a long time now, and others have been saying it, there is no reason why the developers would refuse to add in a character just because they are an assist trophy. If anything they have an incentive to upgrade the assist trophies as they already have the model and some animations, plus this is a first party game we are talking about so Nintendo doesn't have to share the cha ching with another company. Again, Spring Man is the mascot so it just makes sense to add him.

Want: 100%

I'm mostly giving him this score because he is an assist trophy. If he became playable, that will forever change speculation. Now, Isaac, Shadow, Skull Kid, Waluigi, and Bomberman all have a real chance again which is super hype. If he didn't make it, that would look really bad for assist trophies. But again, I don't see that happening which is just the most hyped feeling.

Girl with ribbons

Chance: 60%

Ribbon Girl is one of the most popular ARMS characters and going by my 4 alts theory, she would most certainly be one of the characters. Even disregarding my theory, she is still very likely, probably second to Spring Man himself. As for her being a Mii costume, I don't think being a base game Mii costume is a problem. It's a completely different situation from the DLC Mii costumes in which you have to pay to get them. I also don't think her being a spirit is a problem due to it being a base game spirit. Even before the ARMS announcement I always thought that base game spirits were plausible for the second fighters pass since they were decided a long time ago, probably before a second fighters pass was decided on. Same with the base game Mii costumes.

Want: 60%

She has a cool design and it would make sense for her to be playable due to her being one of the most iconic characters from ARMS. She would also break the base game spirit and Mii costume rule which thank god. One of my best friends is adamant about every spirit being a deconfirmation even for the second fighters pass. Can't wait to prove him wrong.

ARMS' Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 45%

He is more on the popular side of the cast, even being one of the dev's favorites when it comes to designing him. He would probably be one of the 4 alts but if it's just one character, his chances go down as I don't see him getting in over multiple other characters like Spring Man, Ribbon Girl and Min Min.

Want: 60%

He has a really cool design. Him being a ninja would also bring his unique ability to pop out of existence and reappear in a different spot. This would make for a different type of character that keeps you on your guard for the entire fight.

Prediction: New Zelda Character - 24%

Noms: Frank West x5

 

[BowserKing]

Spring-Man

Chance: 25%. While he may be an assist Trophy, spirit and Mii costume, his chance of inclusion would be a no brainer. While he has to face other characters from Arms, he could have a chance to be in this game. But either way, if Ultimate got a sequel, there is no way he is not getting in.

Want: 80%. I say him getting in would be a good choice. He would be a fun character to play as, that and we can get more representation of Arms. His former assists teophy role could be given to a new fighter, but otherwise it's basic. Overall, he would be both a fun character to play as and a game changer for many fighters.

Ribbon-Girl

Chance: 25%. She has both a spirit and a Mii costume, but that would not stop her from getting in this game. But just like Spring-Man, she faces competition from other Arms reps. She does have a chance for the sequel as well, but who knows what will happen.

Want: 80%. I think if Ribbon-Girl would be in this game, she would be an echo of Spring-Man, but she would be fun in her own right. And once again, she is also a sign that we can gets spirits promoted to being playable. Overall, she is also a fun choice for a Arms rep.

Ninjara

Chance: 25%. He has a spirit, but that should not prevent him from being playable. But just like Spring-Man and Ribbon-Girl, he is facing competition from other Arms reps. But who knows what will happen.

Want: 70%. He would be a fun character to play as, and I can see him face off against Sheik and Greninja in a Battle. I think his moves would be unique in comparison to the other ninjas in the Roaster, due to the long arms. Overall, he would be a fun addition to the Roaster.

Prediction: New Zelda Rep (15%)

Noms: 3 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon promotion and 2 for Urbosa

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Spring Man

Chance: 75%
He's the mascot of the series and the most iconic character. I think that alone puts him among the frontrunners, Assist Trophy aside.

Want: 85%
If he kills the Assist Trophy rule, that's good enough for me, because it would put so many characters back on the table for both Ultimate and future games. I also just don't see them giving ARMS representation and not including this guy.

Ribbon Girl

Chance: 75%
She's pretty much the secondary mascot of ARMS, much like Inkling Boy, Chun-Li, Ms. Pac-Man, and Wonder Woman. I really don't see them not including her either, her and Spring Man are pretty much the power duo in terms of iconicness, I don't see one being included without the other, like the examples I mentioned above.

Want: 100%
She would kill both the Spirit deconfirm and the Mii Costumes deconfirm rule, much like Spring Man. I also really like her design as well, so she's high up there among my ARMS characters.

Ninjara

Chance: 60%
If they stretched out to 4 costumes, I could see him being included among the alts. He's not the most popular but he is one of them.

Want: 70%
Sure, he would be fun, and would complement the other Ninjas on the roster really well. He, like the other two above, would also kill the awful Spirit deconfirms rule, which also puts him high up there.

 

[RouffWestie]

Spring Man
Chance: 45%
Choosing the poster boy to represent their franchise in any crossover makes sense. But ARMS is a brand new series with 1 game, and by the time Nintendo would have asked for a playable character, the devs had a lot more data on who the most popular and least popular characters were. Would they stick to choosing the poster boy, or would they go for a newcomer who would be more of a crowd-pleaser? The chances are about half and half, but I think someone more popular would be more likely, just a little bit.
Want: 45%
I'm already satisfied knowing Nintendo chose not to abandon a franchise over unrealistic sales expectations. Springy as the rep in particular doesn't interest me too much, but I'd be fine with him.
----------------
Ribbon Girl
Chance: 30%
I know ARMS doesn't have 1 specific main character, but Ribbon Girl seems to be showcased as a sort of default Player 2. ARMS specifically has a stronger "multiplayer madness" associated with it than other fighting games, so whether or not she's considered the Ken of the series is hard to say for sure. I say she has almost as much of a rival role as Spring Man has as the poster boy.
Want: 45%
Again, I'm happy enough that ARMS was chosen to get further representaion. She's not my favorite but she's fine enough.
----------------
Ninjara
Chance: 25%
He doesn't have much going for him other than being somewhat popular. I don't think he'd be as massive a crowd-pleaser as Min-Min or Twintelle. If they picked based on popularity, it would be between those 2 hands down.
Want: 20%
He's lower on my list of favorite ARMS characters. I don't find ninjas to be a very flexible archetype, especially as far as bringing genuinely new mechanics into Smash is concerned. There isn't really anything cohesive between his ninja qualities and having stretchy arms so he doesn't feel like a very cleverly-designed character IMO.

 

[Garteam]

The Man with the Blue Pompadour
Chance: 90%
I really think we're getting Spring Man one way or another. The first Smash character to be implemented or considered is either the main character or a mascot. That just sort of makes sense for a crossover, you want the character that makes the average joe go "Oh! The guy from ARMS". Plus, if his assist trophy was really an issue, I don't think Nintendo would've included him in the direct trailer.

Want: 80%
Sure, why not? He's not my preferred character in ARMS (that would Byte and Barq), but I still think he's neat. He's got a fun design, likes pizza, and makes spring noises.

Na na na na, na na na na na
Chance: 70%
I don't think we're getting Ribbon Girl as a solo character, but she's easily the most likely for a Spring Man alt costume. They have a similar build and stats, plus she's the main female lead of ARMS. Her gimmick (multiple jumps) has to put on the ARMS rep because of Smash's mechanics, so that's taken care of.

Want: 80%
Similar to Spring Man, not my favourite, but she's fun. Plus, she has the best theme in ARMS

Shadow Man
Chance: 45%
A lot of what I said about Ribbon Girl applies to Ninjara. He's a little more popular than Ribbon Girl (and even Spring Man), but he's less of a mascot than those two. As such, I think an alt to Spring Man is the best option. However, I don't think this is near guaranteed like with Ribbon Girl and having multiple characters as alt would need to be one of Spring Man's gimmicks for him to get included. However, given the emphasis Nintendo put on ARMS' roster in the direct trailer, I still think that is a very likely outcome.

Want: 85%
Byte and Barq aren't getting in, so Ninjara is my second choice. I like the fact he's just a regular student, but he majors in cartoon ninjutsu. It's like a self-aware Naruto.

 

[3DSNinja]

Did everyone forget that Ninjara is the second most popular, only behind Min-Min?

 

[Ridrool64]

Realtalk, I know that people voted for it but I think rating the entire cast wasn't a good idea, because most characters are all gonna get the same rating. Who here seriously thinks Master Mummy, or Lola Pop, or Misango stand a chance at all? I feel like the only characters that most consider even vaguely on the table are Spring Man, the Spirit crew, Max Brass and Dr. Coyle.

Anyway... boyoyon YEAH

Chance: 55%. This is the guy I'm leaning towards, mostly due to his prominence. For example, I think the fact that he's on the boxart and kids will go "that's the guy from Smash" is all Nintendo really gives a hoot about. Sure, people want to theorize things like popularity or who would be the most unique, but that doesn't really make any business sense. That feels like falling into a fan trap. And I don't think Nintendo cared about the whole "mystery" angle making him "too obvious", I really think it's just a promotional gimmick and we're looking too deep into it.

Want: 50%. He gives more characters a chance to get in than any other. By default he'd be great. But beyond that, I don't care about ARMS so I'll just give everybody the same general ballpark of scores.

Adeleine's partner in Star Allies

Chance: 50%. Same deal as Spring Man, she's on the boxart and kids go "that's the girl from Smash", which tells them everything they need to know. She's a little less likely because he's considered more protagonist-ier than she is, but I could see either or.

Want: 45%. Same deal as Spring Man, yet again. Except every non-Spring Man ARMS 1 character, by default, is a walking confirmation that Assist Trophies can't be playable in the same game. And hey, everybody deserves a shot at the roster.

The Green Ninja

Chance: 40%. I do think there is an avenue where he gets in as a solo rep if it's true that he's both the most popular male character and the developer favorite. Otherwise, he's the first rando, though getting acknowledged via Spirit confirms that he's at least popular enough to warrant one. But I could see him make it in either on that basis or as part of a Hero gimmick to the ARMS character.

Want: 45%. It'd be a little higher if more people were hoping for him, but I feel like support bottlenecked to Spring Man and Min-Min, with some Max Brass and Dr. Coyle on the side. But besides that, literally copy-paste everything I said about Ribbon Girl and you get my opinion of Ninjara.

DLC Music Packs x whatever the max amount today allows. New Zelda Character is going to have at least threefold want over chance, which I think will be 16.30%.

 

[Jomosensual]

Gonna start by saying that I really dont think we're getting a Bowser Jr type deal or tag team character or whatever weird theories have been out there so I'm rating the chances that we just get one character.
Spring Man
Chance 50 - Pros are that he's the main character of the series. That's a big plus. He's also probably the most recognizable character from the game. Cons are that he's an AT and a spirit and we don't what those mean for chances right now. He was on the list though so that means he has a chance. However I think if it was going to be him they would have just said it was him instead of saying that it could be anyone from Arms. It would feel weird to play the mystery game and then pick the most obvious character.

Want 50 - I'm not really sure there's that many Arms characters I either really want or really dont want. Most of them fall into the "Yeah, that would be ok" type of roll. Spring Man is one of those.


Ribbon Girl
Chance 40 - The runner up protag in Arms. For whatever reason I just dont feel confident in her getting in. I guess if ATs deconfirm then she might be next in line if they pick a protag, but I don't think that necessarily matters since she's not as popular as a lot of other picks.

Want 50 - Would not be effected either way. She also falls into the category of characters Im extremely neutral on.


Ninjara
Chance 55 - One of the more popular characters, so that's a boost. Is a ninja which we already have a few of but would be different enough to the point where I really don't think it would matter. Believe he finished 2nd to Min Min in that one tournament too. I could see it but im not going to gamble on it.

Want 50 - Not really one of my favorite characters but there's plenty of reasons to pick him. Feels like one of the more deserving characters based on the few metrics we have to rate the Arms reps

Predictions
Zelda rep - 30%(This is going to get overrated like a few other first parties have since we're starting with a Nintendo rep)

Noms
Guardian x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Bubsy pre-Spring Man/Ribbon Girl/Ninjara

[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x110
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x110
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x105
Junko & Monokuma x100
Axel Stone x100
Earthworm Jim x95
Concept: DLC music packs x85
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x85
Concept: Level-5 rep x85

100 - 51

Decidueye x80
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Meowth x75
Brian (Quest 64) x70
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x70
Ahri (League of Legends) x67
Guardian (Destiny) x55
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x40
Terra Branford x40
Boss: Ender Dragon x37
[Rerate] Steve x35
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x32
[Rerate] Kratos x30
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x30
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x25

Under 25

Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x22
Concept: Returning stages x21
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x20
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x18
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Stage: Bowser's Castle x13
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Gordon Freeman x10
Dr. Eggman x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x5
Frank West x5
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x5
Concept: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2

Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon passes 100 noms. Concepts Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable and Level-5 rep join the top seven, tying with DLC music packs for that last spot.

Guardian and Baldi sneak past 50 noms.

Today's newcomers are Frank West, Jill, and the concepts Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party, and Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies. All of them have 5 noms.

lemme guess. Remember your TED talk? If I may guess, did it revolv around the fact that if you played Bubsy II (Or the Jaguar-exclusive Fractured Furry Tales) then you were a masochist? Sounds about right.

Uh... What?

Want: 0%
That said, I’m still doubtful. I know there’s no established rule, but I’m still a firm believer that if an Assist Trophy’s gonna be promoted, it’s going to be in the next game, as this is a trend that started with Smash 4. Long story short:
-, a Brawl Assist Trophy, was promoted on Smash 4
-, two Smash 4 Assist Trophies, we’re promoted in Ultimate

Now again, I’m not saying this is an indisputable fact. Just the more realistic scenario.

I don't see how that has anything to do with your want for the character. Even if you think they're impossible, it has no bearing on your opinion of them.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Spring Man

Chance: 95%. There's no real story to the game where a protagonist exists, but he's the mascot and face nonetheless, along with Ribbon Girl. He's a simple choice that represents the game well. He may come with alts too besides Springtron.

Want: Abstain. I... don't much care about the game, sorry.

Ribbon Girl: Generally same reasons as Spring Man, but I'd put her at a 90% instead. She just isn't in the same spot or as noted. She's also less represented in the game, as the AT chosen was Spring Man. This doesn't change much, but I don't think she's as likely in the end. Maybe as an alt. And yes, I'm aware of the "special abilities thing" but I'll just say I can fully believe them easily working as alts without issues even then.

Want: Abstain like earlier.

Ninjara

Chance: 50%. I don't think he has a remote chance outside of an alt. He's just not that important to the game. He's a cool character, no doubt.

Want: Abstain x3, Triple Combo!

Noms: Fulgore x 3, Metal Sonic x 2.

...Was the predictions New Zelda Character? If so, 10%. Maybe BOTW 2 will give us something. But that's kind of all I can think of of note. Nintendo is an oddball here. Though hey, a new version of Ganondorf could be nice, I guess? If he's in? Or a different Zelda?

 

[amageish]

Except every non-Spring Man ARMS 1 character, by default, is a walking confirmation that Assist Trophies can't be playable in the same game. And hey, everybody deserves a shot at the roster.

I think this will be a common take if it happens, but I'm not convinced it's true... If they pick a non-Spring-Man character, then it'll probably be because they wanted to include that character's gimmick and not "Spring Man is already busy as an Assist Trophy." I mean, Spring Man is the mascot character partly because of his relatively-mundane parry ability that makes him beginner-friendly, versus the more elaborate gimmicks others have...

 

[SKX31]

ARMed and dangerouS: (Ninjara Spring Girl - I regret nothing):

Spring Time for Toothpaste and ATs, Winter for Caries and Fashion Sense:

Chance: 20 %

What's got me about his chances is the whole "Guess who this one is!" nature of the tease. It could certainly be him, sure, but Nintendo didn't hint at ARMS' future. Will they continue along the same path? Or will they do an Octoexpansion / ARMS 2? Only time (that is, close to a month at the time of writing) will tell. He's not someone I'm putting as a clear favorite because this is a race with many horses in it (as far as we're aware).

The Cheerleader Brawler: Chance; 15 %

In a very similar position as Spring Man. Ribbon Girl is however a bit sidelined from what I've seen compared to Spring Man, and in fan

This Ninja took inspiration from Reed Richards: 13 % (If Min Min, Twintelle, Max Brass and Dr. Coyle were also rated I'd give them the same % as Ninjara individually).

With Ninjara we have someone who fans like, I kinda feel that the field is too tight to give any character the lead. The four I listed in the paranthesis alone make it a 7 horse race.

Want: 50 %

I'm okay with ARMS, no matter who it turns out to be. Have never played the game and have thus no real clue about their different abilities (not in any real depth anyway), but ARMS could easily fill a new kind of Stone Wall-esque archetype that's surprisingly lacking in Smash.

Predictions: Zelda rep 15 %

Nominations: Ahri x5

Uh... What?

It was a while ago - during an argument about what kind of character Kazooie is back at the main thread. Here, in all its strange glory:

Best mood is this thread just now figuring out Kazooie is kinky af. C'mon, nobody lets themselves be handled like that unless they're getting something out of it.

Anyway if you're interested here's a link to my TED talk about BDSM subtext in Bubsy II

One of the best posts ever.

 

[GoodGrief741]

*ARMS chanting forever*

Just to make my ratings easier to understand (for you and for myself), these are the possibilities I'm seriously considering for ARMS.

Solo Spring Man
Solo Min Min
Solo Ninjara
Solo Twintelle
Solo Max Brass
Solo Dr. Coyle
Solo Helix
Spring Man + Ribbon Girl (as an alt)
Spring Man + Ribbon Girl (as an echo)
Spring Man + Ribbon Girl + Min Min + Ninjara (as alts)
Spring Man + Ribbon Girl + Min Min + Ninjara (as Echoes)

If you asked me right now, I'd say the one I think is the likeliest is SM + RG as either alts or echoes. Yes, I don't think getting echoes is far-fetched. There are many possible explanations for the weird way of revealing the character, and they include PR and coronavirus mishaps, so while I'm taking it into account, I don't give it too much weight.

Colgate Man

Chance: 60%
I think it would be incredibly jarring to have an ARMS character and not have it be Spring Man in some fashion. I think Sakurai would agree as well. He's the one that was made into an AT and a Mii Costume. Since the AT is the biggest representation the series got, that makes him already the de facto series rep. Plus, thinking of Nintendo's best interests, if they want to promote ARMS, is there a better way to do it than with the guy on the box, the guy whose entire design easily and without mistake conveys the concept of ARMS? Even if there's an ARMS 2, Spring Man will still be in it, so they'd want to have the character that can promote both games rather than just one.

I've seen the argument that ARMS 2 might want to change their mascot, and Smash will be the turning point. Even despite the mascot change being a big if, that's just not how it works. Smash doesn't cause change in another series, it responds and reacts to those changes. If ARMS is changing the mascot, it would do it in ARMS media, plain and simple.

Want: 100%
One of my favorite ARMS characters (yes, I know, what a vanilla idiot I am), and definitely the best candidate to represent the series. If he's not at least one of the reps, I'll be greatly disappointed. And, to be fair, as a fan of many an Assist Trophy, I can't ignore that he'd make a lot of dreams seem more realistic and a lot of idiots shut up. But I love the character and the game, so even if we don't get any other ATs and the Smash community just keeps moving the goalposts, I'll still be delighted to see him.

The Idolmaster

Chance: 47%
The best explanation I can come up with for the weird reveal (that actually means something for Smash) is not that the character is weird and unexpected, but rather that we're getting more than one. Echoes, alts, pick your poison, really, but no character is better suited for that position than Ribbon Girl. If we're getting multiple characters, obviously the base will be Spring Man as he's the most basic, and from that base the easiest match (aside from no-hoper Springtron) is Ribbon Girl. She's easy to translate to Smash, is as much a mascot as Spring Man, and she's definitely positioned as the second rep of the game (she has a Mii Costume).

Want: 100%
I think I might actually like Ribbon Girl a tad more than Spring Man. Plus her stage is great, so if she could come with it that'd be cool. Mind you, neither Spring Man nor Ribbon Girl are actually my favorite character, but I'm keeping that for their days.

Believe it!

Chance: 28%
Ninjara is one of the most popular ARMS characters, despite having neither nice legs nor a big butt. He's also one of the best, which might explain. I think he could make it in solo due to his popularity, but, and this applies to Twintelle as well, why go for the rest when you can go for the best. Min Min has the official factor going for her, as much as you can claim that Ninjara might be more popular in this or that region, Nintendo themselves crowned her as winner in that regard, so it'd make little sense to go for someone who is almost as popular.

As an Echo, I think he's a more compelling candidate, as his vanish can just be a visual effect and then you just have to give him different stances.

Want: 80%
Possibly the ARMS character I'm the least fond of. But an ARMS character is an ARMS character.

Noms: Earthworm Jim x5
Zelda getting its due prediction: 34%

It was a while ago - during an argument about what kind of character Kazooie is back at the main thread. Here, in all its strange glory:

One of the best posts ever.

Oh man, did not expect that to ever be referenced again. You gave me a good laugh.

 

[Sari]

Realtalk, I know that people voted for it but I think rating the entire cast wasn't a good idea, because most characters are all gonna get the same rating. Who here seriously thinks Master Mummy, or Lola Pop, or Misango stand a chance at all? I feel like the only characters that most consider even vaguely on the table are Spring Man, the Spirit crew, Max Brass and Dr. Coyle.

I think it'll be worthwhile to see the want scores though. Plus there is always a chance they could add a lesser popular character since they could be more unique or have better moveset potential for them to work with (stares menacingly at Incineroar). Not to mention there are still some people who think AT's/spirits are permanent death sentences and that some unexpected characters like Springtron could be alternate costumes ala Koopalings/Hero.

In short, there's a ton to talk about when it comes to ARMS and we're trying to make the most of it since we've never had a character announcement like this.

Also this goes for everyone: if you don't feel like rating an ARMS character either because you don't know or care about them, you can abstain on them and still have your noms be counted.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Spring Man

Chance: 50%
Like it or not, he's the poster boy of the game. However, he's already an Assist Trophy, which is still being debated on. It depends on how Nintendo decides to approach this DLC.
Want: 50%
I'm... conflicted. On the one hand, the biggest fanrule in the community will finally be broken. On the other hand, I fear for the implications. For better or worse, we came up with these "rules" for a reason: to help bring some degree of order to this chaos-driven speculation scene. On top of that, how would people react if Spring Man was just the exception? Especially when characters like Isaac and "the meme" are among the most-wanted. I know, this is a bit off, but it honestly kinda scares me.

Abstain on Ribbon Girl and Ninjara. I honestly forgot these two existed.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[Hinata]

Springy Dude
Chance: 25%
Honestly, I'm not convinced it'll be him. He's got the three big roadblocks in his way (Assist Trophy, Spirit, Mii Costume), and also I feel like it'd be weird to play this "who's it gonna be???" song and dance if they just reveal the most likely candidate. But Chrom got in despite still having a Mii Costume AND still being in Robin's Final Smash, so who knows really.

Want: 5%
Honestly I'll be happy with any ARMS rep because I know they'll be fun, but Spring Man isn't my first choice.

Everyone's Favorite Idol, Wrapped In A Neat Little Ribbon
Chance: 35%
Same song and dance as Spring Man, just without the Assist Trophy roadblock. She's just as much the face of ARMS as Springy Boy.

Want: 80%
Either her or Min-Min please.

I never give up on an ARMS fight! That's my Ninja Way!
Chance: 5%
Ain't writing Ninjara off completely, but he sure ain't the face of ARMS like Ribbon Girl and Spring Man. Plus, he's already a spirit, and I think of all the ARMS characters currently filling that role, he's one of the few who Sakurai will be content to keep that way.

Want: 5%
Meh.

 

[warpenguin55]

I'm abstaining from want scores on all ARMS reps. I don't really care who they pick. I've played ARMS a few times, but not enough to really feel attached to anybody.

Spring Man
Chance: 25%
Spring Man is the face of the game, which means that he's always going to be one of the most likely. My issue here is that he's an assist trophy. It doesn't matter if they can just do something like disable his assist trophy or put Springtron in if Springman is in the game. They definitely could do that if given enough time and resources. What matters more imo is if they're willing to do it, and if they have the time/resources for that. Something else that bugs me is that if the rep was going to be Springman, why wouldn't they come out and say it's Springman instead of making us guess? Maybe they're going to do all the DLC reveals like this? I'm not going to bring up Spirits much this time, just that the ARMS rep will probably determine if Spirits deconfirm this time around or not.

Ribbon Girl
Chance: 20%
I think she has a pretty decent shot. Shes the 2nd face of the game, so that boosts her pretty high. The whole Assist Trophy thing doesn't apply to her. She's a spirit and a mii costume, so if she gets in neither of those deconfirm anymore. I doubt the diversity argument really works here, it's rare I see a game developer actually put much stock into it.

Ninjara
Abstain. I don't know what to really say about anyone other than Springman & Ribbon Girl.

 

[Calamitas]

Monkey D Luffy Bellamy the Hyena

Chance: 80%
Out of all the ARMS characters, Spring Man is probably almost our biggest frontrunner. Sure, he's an Assist Trophy and a Spirit, but with Chrom being able beat up himself during Robin's Final Smash, I don't see how that's an issue. Any argument that tries to claim that he's "too obvious" is thinking about this all too complicated, I feel.

Want: 50%
He's pretty middle of the road to me. I'd be alright with him, but I wouldn't be super excited.

Why not Ribbit Girl, like a frog?

Chance: 70%
Poster girl of ARMS, pretty well-known, got already recognized by Smash. I really don't know what else to say here. She's not as prominent as ol' Springy Boy, but still pretty likely, I feel.

Want: 65%
Getting an actual, exclusively female character for once would be nice for Smash, so that alone boosts her want rating a bit higher than Spring Man's. But even so, she's still a bit vanilla. There's better characters in ARMS.

Ninjara? Isn't that this Splatoon-like multiplayer ninja game coming to Switch?

Chance: 20%
Alright, first oof-y rating of the ARMS cast. This guy simply doesn't have the widespread popularity or recognizabtility that our main duo have. I wager that he's still pretty popular, but I'm doubtful that it'll enough to land him a spot in Smash, especially as a standalone fighter.

Want: 25%
Eh, having a ninja's nice. But still not enough to get me very invested.

Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x5

Predicting a new Zelda character get around 45%.

 

[3DSNinja]

Calamitas he's literally the second most popular character in the game only behind Min-Min.