Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. The only character I know from these guys is the crazy spokeslady from their E3 presentations, and given the mixed reception for Segata Sanshiro on his day, I doubt she'd be welcomed.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Stock audience footage
Chance: 0.1%
Devolver publishes indie games of which none are highly requested or have much Japanese presence to my knowledge, Serious Sam in particular I'm sure about, being a lesser known FPS series. The Messenger isn't getting in before the real deal in Hotline Miami's case... I know the violence argument has died down significantly but I still can't see Nintendo let it slide as easily as they did for Bayo.

Want: 0%
I'm not really in a rush to play any of their games honestly. They could be Hollow Knight competition too.

Alucard x5
Bubsy: 0.95% Should be a perfect 0 honestly but someone here will probably give out a very generous "low" score anyway

 

[Neosonic97]

Table Tech Wrecked

Chance: oof (a big, fat zero)
I don't see it. Hotline Miami and Serious Sam have already been covered, though I'd argue their current big thing is Enter the Gungeon (given the recent sorta pseudo-sequel that game got called Exit the Gungeon, and an arcade spinoff called House of the Gundead). With that being said, I'd figure The Bullet has the highest chance out of all Devolver Digital-published characters (let alone Gungeoneers) given how it does have some form experience with a Smash-esque game (namely, Indie Pogo), but I don't see it happening anyway.

Want: ehh... about 20% for The Bullet in particular.
The Bullet certainly does have the potential for an interesting playstyle and is the most likely Gungeoneer to do this sort of thing (not only because he's become pretty much a mascot for Enter the Gungeon, but also because he wields a melee weapon- the sword, Blasphemy), though there are characters I'd much sooner have. On top of that, as Enter the Gungeon is a Bullet Hell Roguelike, that means a rep from said game is competition for Reimu, and that's the LAST thing I need.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Wrong number

So I never paid much attention to Devolver's inner workings. Sure, I was aware of the company and its antics, but since I tend to dislike indie games I never paid any attention. So this morning I took to researching Devolver Digital, see what IP they own and therefore who could be their rep. What I found was surprising.

Devolver Digital owns no intellectual property. None. They let the developers they work with keep the rights. Serious Sam? Hotline Miami? Gungeon? The Messenger? Genital Jousting? Devolver owns the rights to none of those.

I... don't think we've ever rated a concept that was a legal impossibility. This is quite new. Obviously this means my chance score is zero.

As for want? I never played a Serious Sam game, I guess I'd be okay with him but there's no attachment. Jacket, that'd be neat, but he'd never get into Smash as a fighter. Other than those two I don't think any other candidate is worth it. But how do you give a want score to something that doesn't even exist? I guess zero, if there were a hypothetical Devolver rep, it wouldn't be one I know, so no thanks.

Jeez, this is a weird day.

Noms: Earthworm James x5
Bubsy prediction: this'll be fun 9.23%

 

[Neosonic97]

Devolver Digital owns no intellectual property. None. They let the developers they work with keep the rights. Serious Sam? Hotline Miami? Gungeon? The Messenger? Genital Jousting? Devolver owns the rights to none of those.

I just treat it as 'the chance of a character whose game was published by Devolver Digital', Rather than a character owned by the company. For instance, we can't really say, for instance, a Dodge Roll rep, given how Dodge Roll's only intellectual property happens to be the first one they made- which is Enter the Gungeon and its related media.

 

[GoodGrief741]

This week sure went by fast, at least for me. Anyway, today's the last day you can change the top seven. Use those noms wisely.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Falinks pre-Concept: Devolver Digital rep

Concept: New Zelda character x121
Alucard (Castlevania) x120
Sirfetch'd x120
Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game x110
Concept: Contra rep x105
Minato Arisato x105
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x100
[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x100
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x100

100 - 51

Junko & Monokuma x90
Earthworm Jim x85
Axel Stone x85
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x83
Decidueye x80
Concept: DLC music packs x80
Concept: Level-5 rep x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Meowth x75
Concept: Darksiders rep x70
Brian (Quest 64) x70
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x60

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Guardian (Destiny) x45
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x43
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x40
Boss: Ender Dragon x37
Ahri (League of Legends) x37
Terra Branford x35
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x32
[Rerate] Kratos x30
[Rerate] Steve x30
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x25
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x25

Under 25

Concept: Returning stages x21
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x18
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x17
Zeraora x15
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x15
Black Shadow x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Stage: Bowser's Castle x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x5
Dr. Eggman x5
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2

Contra rep and Minato Arisato get past 100 noms.

I just treat it as 'the chance of a character whose game was published by Devolver Digital', Rather than a character owned by the company.

That, to me, is akin to calling Crash a Sony rep, or Travis Touchdown a Ubisoft rep. If modern Smash speculation is just wondering what company doesn't have a character in Smash and wondering who it could be, the least we can do is do it in an informed manner.

 

[Neosonic97]

That, to me, is akin to calling Crash a Sony rep, or Travis Touchdown a Ubisoft rep. If modern Smash speculation is just wondering what company doesn't have a character in Smash and wondering who it could be, the least we can do is do it in an informed manner.

I understand that. I'm just going for the spirit of the nominations, if not the letter of it.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain on Digital Devolver since I have no experience with their games outside of BroForce. However, since they appear to own no IPs of their own, I can't imagine it being easy to negotiate with them. They have been publishing a lot of multiplatform indies that have made their way to the Switch, though, so that does count for something. Still, with limited slots, and more popular and close to Nintendo indies getting Mii Costumes and Assist Trophies, I can't imagine Digital Devolver getting anything close to that.


Nominations:
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (standalone) x5

Predictions:
Bubsy - 8.56%

 

[Calamitas]

I honestly can't think of any joke to make on Devolver Digital

Chance: 0%
Well. . . I suppose at this point, it's already all said by others. They apparently don't actually own any of the IPs they publish, and beyond that, they're just one indie developer out of many. More popular indie franchises like Undertale, Cuphead, Shantae and Shovel Knight didn't manage to get a playable, so why should they? And I know this isn't really saying much, but I can't even think of any named character that is from any of their games. Not a strong case.

Want: Abstain
I don't have any familiarity with Devolver Digital and their games. Doesn't feel right to me to rate them.

Predicting Bubsy to get 9.99%, just for the joke alone.

Nominating Concept: A New Zelda Character x5.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Gnar
0.89% Chance - 12.67% Want
Winner of predictions was Sari with 0.95%

Segata Sanshiro
1.30% Chance - 43.27% Want
Winner of predictions was 3BitSaurus with a near-exact 1.34% You get 10 extra noms!
Segata was a very polarizing character; many gave him high want scores, while many others were wrong gave zeroes and the like. Probably the whole "originated in a commercial" thing.

Falinks
1.00% Chance - 28.44% Want
Winner of predictions was Ninjaed who hit a bullseye! That's 15 extra noms to your name.

Because it's your last shot, I'll remind you how many extra noms you have

3BitSaurus 10
Artix 15
Awakining 5
DanganZilla5 15
DaUsername 67
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 43
Icedragonadam 5
NintenRob 110
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 5
Sari 5
Troykv 15
warpenguin55 5
Wunderwaft 15

 

[3BitSaurus]

Abstain on Devolver. Even if they don't own a lot of their more iconic stuff, it's hard for me to rate so many different IPs they publish at once. Though I will say they at least have some clout in the industry... so that's something, I guess.

Predictions:
Bubsy: 0.17%

Nominations:
Ahri (League of Legends) x 15

 

[amageish]

Devolver Digital Rep

Chance: 4%. Yeah, as GoodGrief discussed, this is technically not a thing that exists, but I'll treat it like it's "Concept: A Character from a Game Published by Devolver Digital"...

The main problem Devolver Digital (and a lot of indie franchises) has is that plenty of indie games are "Let's make a revival of [insert a retro franchise here] with our unique flair" and that leads to the question of "If you're putting this character in, why don't you just put the original in?". Why represent The Messenger instead of Ninja Gaiden? Why present Okhlos when we already have Pikmin? Why represent Reigns when we can go straight to the source and represent Tinder? Okay, that last one is a joke... I don't think this argument is entirely logical, as we have plenty of franchises playable in Smash that took inspiration from games that came before them (or else we have to kick every JRPG character out expect Hero), but I also don't see us getting both the Messenger and Ryu in the same pack just due to general moveset overlap.

My impulse is that Enter the Gungeon would be the most unique and most fun franchise out of Devolver's ludography. The Bullet is already in Indie Pogo, but I doubt Nintendo would care all that much if they wanted the character in Smash. They have published a good swath of indie games though and I think they all have their own plussides and downsides, but I can't exactly write a review of every character right now...

Want: 50%.

I would be very into an indie character being playable. I give a 50% as there are some I would like more then others.

Nominations: Let's go Minato Arisato x5 just to try and break ties...

Predictions: Bubsy. Er... 0.3%...

 

[Icedragonadam]

Devolver Digital

Chance: 0.01%

Devolver Digital doesn't even most of the indie games they developed. But even then, it definitely seems like Indies are primarily relegated to Premium Mii Costumes at most.

Want: ABSTAINED

Didn't even play any of the games they published.

Bubsy(It was going to happen) Prediction: 1.22%

Nominate Darksiders rep x10

 

[Deleted member]

Alright y'all. Today is the day we talk about Devolver Digital! I should preface this by saying Devolver aren't listed under the copyright section of the games they've published, but whether if they do have a part in getting a character in Smash or not, a good amount of people would associate them with the games they've published. 1 of the reasons I've wanted to do this day is because I wanted to get people talking about a slew of games from Devolver.

I'm sorry to say I don't really know much of Devolver's origins, so if you were looking for a deep dive into their history, I'm sorry to disappoint you. What I do know is that the company started in 2009 and currently has 20 employees under it. As the name implies, all of their releases have been available digitally, though some games do get physical copies out sometime after their release.

In case you didn't know, Devolver has a site that lists all the games they've published/are publishing. Though I won't be going into everything Devolver has published, here's a list of popular games/series Devolver has published with a brief description, some notes behind them, and the eShop link(s) if you're looking to buy it (if a game isn't on the Switch, I'll link the Steam page instead):

Hotline Miami - A brutal fast paced top down action game developed by Dennaton Games known for its trial and error gameplay, psychedelic visuals, and a stellar OST. It is perhaps the most influential game of many Devolver published titles like RUINER, Mother Russia Bleeds, and a couple of other games that'll be mentioned here.

Shadow Warrior - Before there was Wolfenstein: The New Order and DOOM 2016, there was Shadow Warrior, the rebooted FPS shooter developed by Flying Wild Hog. What was once an IP of 3D Realms seemingly belongs to these devs currently.

Serious Sam - Alright I'll be honest I don't much about Serious Sam, but from what I do know, it is a fast paced FPS game developed by Croteam with a protagonist that has a bunch of cheesy 1-liners. It's 1 of the more prominent titles under the publisher as an HD remake of the 1st Serious Sam game was Devolver's first published title, and a 4th installment is planned to be released this year as well.

The Talos Principle - From the creators of Serious Sam gives us the first person sci-fi puzzle game. I don't got much to say about this 1 either, but it has a lot of raving reviews.

BroForce - A 2D Run and Gunner action game developed by Free Lives featuring pun names of 80s action movie characters and a ****load of destruction. The devs have also made The Expendabros which is a crossover between BroForce and The Expendables 3 movie, and it's free to play on Steam.

Reigns - A strategic card game developed by Nerial where you play as a king and have to choose between 2 choices per card while balancing 4 different powers. There's also a Game of Thrones crossover game for Reigns as well.

Enter the Gungeon - The Dungeon Crawler Roguelite game developed by Dodge Roll that features a lot of guns. It's probably the biggest title published by Devolver Digital, and Dodge Roll has also made Exit the Gungeon and even have their own arcade machine!

The Messenger - A Metroidvania inspired by the original Ninja Gaiden games developed by Sabotage Studios. The devs are currently working on a game called Sea of Stars, an RPG that appears to be inspired by Chrono Trigger and also takes place in the same universe as The Messenger (which if you've played The Messenger you could probably see how that is the case); there isn't a known publisher for the game yet however.

GRIS - a beautiful 2D adventure game developed by Nomada Studios about a girl's adventure through her painful experiences. I'm not so great at explaining this game aside from telling you it has timeless visuals, but it won the Games For Impact award at last year's Game Awards.

Ape Out - a Top Down Action game created by Gabe Cuzzilo, Matt Boch, and Bennett Foddy where you play as a gorilla fighting its way to freedom. If you guys didn't know, Bennett foddy also created QWOP.

Katana ZERO - A 2D hack n slasher developed by Akiisoft with instant death combat. DLC is currently being worked on for the game that follows where the story left off and is apparently 3 times longer than the base game.

My Friend Pedro - A 2D Platformer Shooter created by DeadToast Entertainment where you control a man with a sentient banana partner.

Metal Wolf Chaos XD - A remaster of the infamous Japanese exclusive American President Mech game developed by From Software. What was once a rarity is now accessible thanks to Devolver Digital.

Carrion - A "Reverse-Horror Game" where you play as a red fleshy monster attacking those who held you captive. This game is planned to be released sometime this year.

Fall guys - A Multiplayer game developed by Mediatonic which is basically Ninja Warrior or Wipeout but cartoony and in a massive online free 4 all. This game is also planned to be released sometime this year.

There's a lot of other games published by Devolver that I haven't mentioned like OlliOlli, Pikuniku, or Gato Roboto due to me not seeing enough of those games, but please don't think that me not talking about those games mean they aren't good or anything.

As far as chances go, we've already seen that Indie titles can be repped in Smash as anything but a fighter. It's certainly very low to believe that any Indie game character will become a fighter in Smash. It's also questionable as to how involved Devolver would be if Nintendo were to approach putting a character from 1 of the games they've published in Smash. Would they have to go to them first and the devs after or only go to the devs? I don't really have the answer for that, so I'm going to rating it based on the likelihood of 1 of their games being added to Smash. I do think that Sakurai wouldn't have too much of a problem communicating with them and a great portion of these devs though.

As you've seen already, there's a bunch of games under Devolver Digital, but not all of them would be able to get a Fighter in Smash. It's easy to assume Hotline Miami won't be able to get a Fighter Pack since Hotline Miami's combat is too drastically different for Smash to make a faithful moveset out of. Not to mention that Hotline Miami's OST is filled with tracks licensed from different music labels, so obtaining the rights to putting the tracks in Smash would most likely be very limited. At best, Hotline Miami would probably get a Mii Costume for Jacket in Smash. With that, Ape Out would also be a game that would probably be on the chopping block for similar reasons. Reigns is also a game that wouldn't be able to bring a Fighter to Smash either due to the difference between the games and would at best get a spirit event. BroForce would have somethings that would make it look possible for Smash, but the game's combat isn't exactly made for Smash, and the characters being pun names of old action movie characters like Rambro or Brommando would also sound really hard to put in Smash as well.

Most of the games I've listed do have something to work with in regards to a moveset, but some characters do have somethings that would be pretty questionable. For example, the protagonist of My Friend Pedro has a lot of stuff you could use for a Smash moveset, but he doesn't have an official name. Pretty much every character in Smash has an identifiable name for Smash, so Sakurai would probably ask the devs on what to call him or choose not to put him in Smash over it. Another example is Carrion. This game is coming out later this year with a lot of promise. I've played an early beta of the game, and the movement of Carrion is really smooth, perhaps too smooth for a game like Smash. It also puts into perspective as to if Nintendo would have a lot of faith in putting an unreleased non-Nintendo title in Smash. Michael from Metal Wolf Chaos is as entertaining as you can get of a character, but even though the game is now widely accessible, I don't think Nintendo are as crazy of a company to choose him to be in Smash. I don't really know what Wild Flying Hog are up to currently, but in 2017, they said they don't have any plans for the Switch, so I doubt Nintendo would have plans to put Lo Wang in Smash.

I'm also gonna mention I have yet to finish GRIS to determine how possible it would be to see her in Smash, though I will say she would have a move similar to Kirby's Down B and would come with an incredible looking DLC stage. I also don't know too much about Serious Sam either, so I can't comment on him aside from the devs porting The Talos Principle on the Switch which makes it look possible for a Serious Sam Switch port in the future.

Perhaps the most realistic characters for Smash would have to be the Gungeoneers, Zero, and the Messenger. Much like many of the games published under Devolver, these 3 characters come from games with overwhelmingly positive reviews, and they even have a lot of stuff you could do for Smash. For instance, Enter the Gungeon has sold over 3 million copies as of January 2020. It's certainly got the popularity to back up a Gungeoneer in Smash. In the game, there's 4 characters you can start off with: The Convict, The Pilot, The Marine, and The Hunter. Though each character has a different set of weapons, they could potentially work similarly to Hero in terms of alts (which probably sounds tiring to hear with the ARMS rep yet to be revealed), and all of their moves would be insanely gun based. The next character I'll talk about if Zero. His chances are perhaps lower than the Gungeoneers, but Katana ZERO is also a big Indie title of last year that released on the Switch and Steam. Unfortunately, it was overshadowed by various other Indie games, but Katana ZERO was still a critically acclaimed game. Though this is not a hint, even Sakurai has mentioned playing it on twitter, so he'd be familiar with the game before Nintendo would approach him on adding Zero to Smash. The Insta-Kill combat could be put into question, but it's probably easy to believe this wouldn't mean too much unless Sakurai believes Zero can't work without it. Lastly, we have the Messenger, another overwhelmingly positive reviewed game that won a few awards from a few gaming shows. Now, it's fairly obvious to believe Ryu Hayabusa would be in Smash before he would be since adding the inspired before the inspiration doesn't sound right with most people nowadays, but that wouldn't really affect anything. The Messenger's time travelling mechanic sounds possible for Smash where you could travel through time by entering portals and changing the environment which honestly sounds like a great idea for a DLC stage but also toxic depending on how the stage is built.

Now, overall chance of any of these characters being added to Smash? 6%. I know I said a good amount about the last 3 characters I talked about, but unfortunately, they're still Indie games, and as mentioned before, Indie games have only been repped as anything but a fighter. It would have to be a very special case for 1 of Devolver's games to be added to Smash.

Want: 90%

The want portion is going to be a bit short, but Devolver Digital has a lot of great games under their name (my favorite obviously being Hotline Miami), and I love tuning into what new games they're publishing like Carrion, Fall Guys, and a horror game that's being made by Suda51 and SWERY65. Though there are games I don't know too much about or not too interested in, I could probably say I wouldn't mind seeing Nintendo choose anybody from Devolver's games because I like a great portion of these games already. There's a slew of cool **** these games could bring to Smash that I would enjoy. Whether if it's a stage from GRIS or a Jacket Mii Costume, I would be so down for anything related to Devolver Digital in Smash.
--------------
Predictions:
Bubsy - 0.1%
--------------
Noms:
Lu Bu x5

 

[Neosonic97]

In the game, there's 4 characters you can start off with: The Convict, The Pilot, The Marine, and The Hunter.

I'd like to point out that it's unlikely that any of those Gungeoneers would get into the game, simply because the fifth Gungeoneer (and one of four unlockable Gungeoneers, alongside The Robot, The Paradox and The Gunslinger), The Bullet, is more popular, to the point where he's basically the game's mascot (or at least, part of the Bulletkin race, which are collectively the Gungeon's Mascot, akin to Dragon Quest's Slimes).

 

[Deleted member]

I'd like to point out that it's unlikely that any of those Gungeoneers would get into the game, simply because the fifth Gungeoneer (and one of four unlockable Gungeoneers, alongside The Robot, The Paradox and The Gunslinger), The Bullet, is more popular, to the point where he's basically the game's mascot (or at least, part of the Bulletkin race, which are collectively the Gungeon's Mascot, akin to Dragon Quest's Slimes).

I mean yeah Bullet Kin are basically Enter the Gungeon's defacto mascot like Slime is with DQ yet Slime isn't playable in Smash so I don't know what else to tell ya

 

[NintenRob]

I'm gonna abstain today.

But as the Nomination King, I have a message to my dominion.

Holding power over you has been fun. I predicted Byleth, you did not. Don't blame yourself, it's not your fault, you were simply inferior to me.

But alas, my reign is coming to an end. I must join the common folk once again. But I do so with a bang. You see I have power, you don't. Because for the first in this countries long and bloody history, I can send a nomination of my choice, straight to the top 7. It doesn't even have to have a single nomination. It's going from nothing, to the top. A metaphor for my life really. I had no power, and then Byleth gave me power. I dedicate my power to all those who have no power what so ever, the no hopers, the lowest denominator. The assist trophies. All of them. The entire concept of any assist trophy being upgraded. I use all my available nominations to rocket this concept to the top. Although perhaps I underestimate the power of these folk. Because obviously they'll perform better than tomorrows slimeball, I can only say the Bob Cat will get 0.

And so ends the speech of your King, it was a golden era for this kingdom as declared by myself but now we enter the dark age as I forfeit my power the assist trophies. I will always be with, but as your equal, rather than your ruler.



.......


......

Tldr

Assist trophy becomes playable x115

Prediction Bubsy 0%

 

[Sari]

Devolver Digital rep

Chance: 0.1%
I'm still skeptical on Western companies as a whole getting characters into Smash, so I'm not expecting one anytime soon unless they are in the big leagues like Crash or Master Chief. Devolver Digital has published some successful games like Hotline Miami, but at most I can see one of their games getting a spirit event and that's it.

Want: Abstain
Outside of a few of their FPS ports/remakes, I never really played that many Devolver Digital games so I'll just abstain.

Bubsy chance prediction: 1.03%

Nominations:
Axel Stone x10

 

[Wunderwaft]

Devolver Digital rep

Chance: 1%
I mean besides Hotline Miami I don't see any other game they published to have even the slightest chance at getting in. And even then, Hotline Miami may have been popular, but not on a level that may get it a Smash invitation. I might see it getting a spirit even or a mii costume, but I'm dubious on a playable slot.

Want: Abstain
Eh, I like their games. I enjoyed Hotline Miami and My Friend Pedro but I can live with them not being in Smash.

Bubsy prediction: 0.78%
Nomination: Ahri (League of Legends) x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Double D

Chance: 0% Apparently DD doesn't actually own jack! If this is the case, it's 0 by default. So in interpretation of the spirit of the law, I will give it a 5%. Not that much more, the only one I could see from a Devolver Digital published game is Serious Sam and for some reason I just... doubt it. It's not that it's impossible, but I can't think of many people it'd turn the heads of.

Want: 20%. Whatever adds more to the copyright screen notice is a good addition in my book (except if they flagrantly don't deserve it). And I can't say the latter caveat applies to Devolver Digital. That being said, I don't give a flying you-know-what about the company nor any game they published except the Messenger, and while getting THAT in Smash would be awesome, it better not be before Ryu Hayabusa.

Bubsy better ****ing not get above Hat Kid for Chance. 0.63%. DLC Music x 5.

---

And now the return of something that's been a fair bit overdue! Well, I intentionally spaced them out so as to reduce spamming them.

Spoiler: Chance Totals

Chance Key: Green = Frontrunner (50+%), Blue = Solid Shot (35+%), White is Possible (20+%), Orange is Feasible (15+%), Orange Red is considered Unlikely (10+%), Light Red is Very Unlikely (5%) and Deep Red is below that, Pipe Dream. The lower tiers are once again getting a split.

1. (Team Cherry, Hollow Knight) The Knight (Mii Costume): 63.50% Chance - Likeliest thing we've rated, likeliest Mii Costume so far
2. (KOEI-TECMO, Ninja Gaiden) Ryu Hayabusa: 59.48% Chance - Likeliest character
3. (Activision-Blizzard, self titled) Crash Bandicoot: 59.26% Chance - Likeliest Western character
4. (BANDAI-NAMCO, Tales of) Lloyd Irving: 50.29% Chance - Likeliest character from a 3rd party company with a fighter
5. (Capcom, Devil May Cry) Dante: 49.38% Chance
6. (Grasshopper Manufacture, No More Heroes) Travis Touchdown: 45.28% Chance
7. (Capcom, Ace Attorney) Phoenix Wright: 43.94% Chance
8. (Square-Enix, Mario) Geno: 42.50% Chance - Likeliest character with base-game content
9. (Square-Enix & Disney, Kingdom Hearts) Sora: 40.58% Chance
10. (SEGA, Puyo Puyo) Arle Nadja: 39.29% Chance
11. (SEGA, Yakuza) Kazuma Kiryu: 38.46% Chance
12. Heihachi Mishima: 37.58% Chance
13. Quote (Mii Costume): 36.79% Chance - Least likely Mii Costume so far
14. 2B: 35.41% Chance
15. Sol Badguy: 31.00% Chance
16. Lara Croft: 29.50% Chance
17. Cinderace: 26.63% Chance - Likeliest first party
18. Reimu Hakurei: 24.98% Chance - Likeliest indie character
19. Bandana Dee: 21.70% Chance
20. Paper Mario: 21.64% Chance
21. Isaac: 20.45% Chance - Likeliest first party from a non-fighter repped series
22. Waluigi: 19.81% Chance
23. Dovahkiin: 19.69% Chance
24. Nightmare: 18.74% Chance
25. Master Chief: 18.27% Chance
26. Amaterasu: 18.17% Chance
27. Dixie Kong: 18.08% Chance
28. Rex: 17.52% Chance
29. Tracer: 17.37% Chance
30. Rillaboom: 16.11% Chance
31. Ragna the Bloodedge: 14.25% Chance
32. Inteleon: 12.41% Chance
33. Toxtricity: 12.34% Chance
34. Rayman: 11.53% Chance
35. Urshifu: 11.43% Chance
36. Chun-Li: 11.01% Chance
37. Shantae: 10.89% Chance
38. Monster Hunter: 10.75% Chance
39. Spyro the Dragon: 9.58% Chance
40. KOS-MOS: 8.87% Chance
41. Echo Fighters as DLC: 7.53% Chance
42. Big Daddy: 7.16% Chance
43. Elma: 6.48% Chance
44. Neku Sakuraba: 6.46% Chance
45. Standalone Stage DLC: 5.74% Chance - "Least likely" non-Fighter concept
46. Skull Kid: 5.46% Chance
47. The Knight: 4.62% Chance
48. Carmen Sandiego: 4.43% Chance - Most notable combination of least likely and most wanted, Pipe Dream Award
49. Midna: 4.33% Chance
50. Freddy Fazbear: 4.31% Chance
51. Bomberman: 4.16% Chance
52. Gex: 3.91% Chance
53. Ryo Hazuki: 3.59% Chance
54. Octopath Traveler rep: 3.47% Chance - Least likely third party from a company with a Fighter
55. Reporter & Wrestler: 3.40% Chance
56. Thrall: 3.07% Chance
57. Crypto: 2.67% Chance
58. Obstagoon: 2.18% Chance
59. Vault Boy: 1.82% Chance
60. Melmetal: 1.71% Chance
61. Hornet: 1.45% Chance
62. Segata Sanshiro: 1.30% Chance - Only character rated to not technically come from a video game
63. The Blob: 1.14% Chance
64. Falinks: 1.00% Chance - Least likely character from a repped series, least likely first/second party, least likely Japanese character
65. Gnar: 0.89% Chance
66. Hat Kid: 0.85% Chance - Least likely character

Spoiler: Want Totals

Want key: Pink = Community Stars (#FF69B4) [65+%], Brown = Fan Favorites [#8B4513] (60+%), Yellow = Popular (40+%), Purple is Average (25+%), Black is Unpopular (below 25%).

1. (Activision, self-titled) Crash Bandicoot: 75.78% Want - Most wanted character
2. Echo Fighters as DLC: 75.40% Want - Most wanted non-Fighter concept
3. (Nintendo, Kirby) Bandana Dee: 74.41% Want - Most wanted first party, most wanted Japanese character, most wanted from a repped series
4. (Capcom, Ace Attorney) Phoenix Wright: 70.91% Want - Most wanted third party from a company with a fighter
5. (Nintendo, Donkey Kong) Dixie Kong: 70.52% Want
6. Standalone Stage DLC: 70.88% Want - "Least wanted" non-Fighter concept
7. (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Where in the World is --->) Carmen Sandiego: 69.73% Want
8. (Square-Enix, Tomb Raider) Lara Croft: 69.06% Want
9. (Nintendo, Golden Sun) Isaac: 67.22% Want - Most wanted new first party
10. (SEGA, Yakuza) Kazuma Kiryu: 66.17% Want
11. (KOEI-TECMO, Ninja Gaiden) Ryu Hayabusa: 64.32% Want
12. Dante: 64.23% Want
13. 2B: 64.09% Want
14. Geno: 62.93% Want
15. Travis Touchdown: 62.86% Want
16. Skull Kid: 61.30% Want
17. Paper Mario: 61.14% Want
18. Master Chief: 60.94% Want
19. Waluigi: 60.75% Want
20. Arle Nadja: 60.50% Want
21. Reimu Hakurei: 60.05% Want
22. Amaterasu: 60.00% Want
23. Chun-Li: 57.30% Want
24. Nightmare: 57.27% Want
25. Midna: 57.17% Want
26. Bomberman: 55.00% Want
27. Sora: 54.44% Want
28. Shantae: 54.28% Want
29. Neku Sakuraba: 53.89% Want
30. Heihachi: 53.60% Want
31. Rayman: 52.35% Want
32. Spyro the Dragon: 52.04% Want
33. Elma & Sol Badguy: 51.18% Want (tied)
34. Octopath Traveler rep: 51.00% Want
35. Rex: 50.95% Want
36. The Knight: 50.12% Want
37. Hornet: 49.09% Want
38. Lloyd Irving: 47.85% Want - Worse want total than chance total, the "dread it, run from it, it still arrives" award
39. Quote (Mii Costume): 47.54% Want
40. Dovahkiin: 47.40% Want
41. The Knight (Mii Costume): 46.85% Want - Also worse want than chance, worse want than fighter
42. Segata Sanshiro: 43.27% Want
43. Gex: 42.50% Want
44. Toxtricity: 41.62% Want
45. Monster Hunter: 37.33% Want
46. Ragna the Bloodedge: 37.19% Want
47. Big Daddy: 36.92% Want
48. Reporter & Wrestler: 36.69% Want
49. KOS-MOS: 35.24% Want
50. The Blob: 28.88% Want
51. Falinks: 28.44% Want
52. Ryo Hazuki: 28.27% Want
53. Cinderace: 27.71% Want
54. Crypto: 27.63% Want
55. Rillaboom: 27.47% Want
56. Inteleon: 27.00% Want
57. Thrall: 26.50% Want
58. Hat Kid: 23.69% Want
59. Tracer: 22.73% Want
60. Melmetal: 21.10% Want
61. Vault Boy: 20.40% Want
62. Obstagoon: 18.27% Want
63. Freddy Fazbear: 17.48% Want
64. Urshifu: 16.46% Want
65. Gnar: 12.67% Want

The Deceased: Honorable mentions to Bendy, Warframe reps, and New Horizons reps, who were never in consideration but got whacked during Volume 2 speculation.

1. Doom Slayer (2.86% Chance, 44.15% Want) | Interview
2. Ring Fit Trainer (90 Nominations) | Spirit Event
3. Shovel Knight (5.03% Chance, 48.71% Want) | Interview
4. Riesz (Unrated for Volume 2 | Volume 1: 1.50% Chance, 39.75% Want) | Spirit Event

Takeaways: Gnar is the single least wanted character? Huh. Better hope those rumors of a LoL character don't hold weight. Gnar, Falinks and Segata all try their hand at getting the worst chance score, too, but none of them can pry it off of Hat Kid (how did Hat Kid score so badly?) We'll see if Bubsy can do what the others can't. Chun-Li doesn't inspire much confidence in multi reps for third parties, but only chance wise: perhaps Tails and Terra and the like can do better in want. No comment on Hornet.

 

[Sid-cada]

Devolver Digital rep

Chance - 0.75% - Okay, so they don't actually own any of their games, but at least that's not going to prevent them from getting in so much as a reinterpretation of what that means. While it has a respectable catalogue, none really seem like Smash pick material except for Gungeon and Serious Sam, which are western and thus unlikely unless they get really big. Gungeon hasn't quite reached the level of other indie games that have gotten Smash recognition, while Serious Sam doesn't seem like the first pick they would go for if they wanted a more traditional shooter character. I don't think they have a chance.

Want - 45% - Some of it's cool, but not what I'm looking for. With no real connection to their franchises, I think it's going to come down to who is chosen and how they are implemented.


Nominations

Nippon Ichi Rep X5

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Bubsy from the Bubsy series.

Tomorrow will be the first of our 5 weekly ARMS days so predict Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, and Ninjara.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into Bubsy mood:

Spoiler: Bubsy Music

 

[Drason]

Devolver Digital

Chance: 10%
Given all the crazy games they produce, I can see how Sakurai could be interested in developing a character from one of their series. Hotline Miami would be an interesting one, like do you develop for the walking character? Do you work with his car? How's his moveset going to be? I

Want:75%
I really want to see how some of their characters would be implemented. Or more importantly who would be chosen

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Bubsy

Chance: 0.1%
A series with a history of negative reception, to the point where it's largely viewed as a joke by the gaming community. In terms of fan requests, there are probably more (unironic) negative requests than positive ones. I don't see Nintendo going for this.


Want: 0%
Low quality games, low quality character. It's safe to say that he stands near the bottom of my list of video game characters I'd want to ever see in Smash. And I'd never in a million years consider paying for him. Hard Pass.

Noms: Terra Branford x5

 

[axel_]

DEVOLVER DIGITAL REP (sorry for being late)

Chance: 1%

For as impactful as Devolver's games are to indie titles, they really don't have as much attention as many of Smash's third-party characters, or even the few indie characters that do show up in Smash. That and many of Devolver's games are probably too mature in theme to fit in Smash, most obvious examples being Hotline Miami, Katana Zero, Talos Principle, and Shadow Warrior.

Want: 100%

Jacket. The sole reason for this ranking is Jacket.
The Hotline Miami series is nothing short of fantastic, from its gritty socio-politically gritty world and story, to its hardcore synthwave music, its grotesque and its tough-as-rusty-titanium-nails gameplay. It's nearly a masterpiece and I want to see it in Smash so badly. I will happily accept a Jacket Mii Costume as long as it comes with a song (preferably Run or Roller Mobster)

If you haven't played either Hotline Miami game, do it. Both games are on the Switch for $25 together, and you can buy the soundtrack on Steam to directly support the artists behind the songs. Their next game Sector X (which isn't Hotline Miami but is still based on gritty 80's media) has been teased heavily and should be out in a couple years, so get it too.

Y'know, unless you're in Australia, then just uh... watch gameplay on YouTube...


BUBSY

Chance: 0%

I see zero reason for Nintendo to ever go for Bubsy after the negative reception of his last two games, unless they're certain that meme picks will make them millions.

Want: 2%

Well, it definitely hasn't crossed my mind. If we're gonna get a failed obscure 90's cereal mascot, I'd 1000% rather go for Plok instead (and not just for Tim Follin music.)

(okay maybe mainly for Tim Follin music)

 

[Perkilator]

Paw-ssibly EVERYTHING WENT WRONG (or as JonTron puts it):

Chance: 0 Purr-cent
Woolies Strike Back was just a desPURRate attempt to climb back to relevancy after being memed FUR so long. Paws on Fire falling out of style doesn't help, either. Even Meowth would be TICKED to see this hairball, even as an Assist Trophy. (Speaking of which, has their ever been any fanart of Meowth giving Bubsy the Freddy Krueger business? Because I'd pay good money to see that)

Want: 50 Purr-cent
Not as a playable character, but as an Assist Trophy that does nothing but fly around and spout catchphrases. Basically the equivalent of what CATicarus says right here:

Anything to drill the fleas off him as said drill pierces the heavens his annoying little face, and I for one would make the MEOWST of the time I have to MEOWtilate him.

Spring Man: 10%
Ribbon Girl: 50%
Ninjara: 40%

Noms: Sirfetch'd x5

 

[Megadoomer]

You fools - you have given me too much power! Henceforth, every hour on the hour until the day is done, I shall set the thread title to full Bubsy mode. A new, nonsensical quote from Bubsy himself, until Bubsy gets the respect he deserves!

...Actually, his score's averaging somewhere between zero to one percent in both categories as I'm typing this, which is arguably better than what he deserves. Plus, I need to sleep and work in there somewhere. You will be spared from additional Bubsy quotes. For now...

Bubsy (Pilot's license? What for?)

Chance: 0%

Bubsy should have been left in the 90's - he should have been forgotten like Aero the Acro-Bat, Zero the Kamikaze Squirrel, Awesome Possum, Radical Rex, Rocky Rodent, and countless other Sonic the Hedgehog knock-offs. Why someone decided to bring the franchise back and make multiple new games for it is beyond me. Thankfully, the third party franchises that have made it to Smash have been of a consistently high quality, and Bubsy is known for being on the exact opposite end of that spectrum, so we should be safe.

Want: 0%

Growing up, I got a Super Nintendo as a hand-me-down from my cousins. I don't recall us buying many games for it (though I don't remember much about when I was that age), so we largely stuck with what our cousins would give us. Thankfully, they had a great line-up (all three Donkey Kong Country games, Mario World, Kirby Super Star, Super Street Fighter 2, the first three Mortal Kombat games...), but one of those games was the first Bubsy, and it was terrible.

You could tell that they wanted to be like Sonic the Hedgehog, with large levels and an emphasis on speed, but unlike Sonic the Hedgehog (where you could collect rings, and as long as you had one ring, you wouldn't die from colliding with anything), Bubsy died in one hit. And let me tell you, many of these hits didn't make a ton of sense - the game's Goomba equivalent breathes on you, and Bubsy drops dead. Bubsy can die from falling damage. In a platformer. That involves a lot of high jumps and gliding. The level design encourages you to go fast, but punishes you for doing so.

Needless to say, I want Bubsy as far away from Smash as possible, and I haven't even touched Bubsy 2, Bubsy 3D, or whatever came after that.

 

[3DSNinja]

Oh god please no
Chance: 0%; It's ****in BUBSY, do I need more justification? Oh, I do? Well, his last two games both got awful reviews and considering that his games never got good reviews to begin with... yeah. Plus, WHAT THE HELL IS HIS MOVESET POTENTIAL. HE HAS LITERALLY NONE.
Want: 0%: Bubsy was never good. The original games were mediocre sonic ripoffs. 3D was a ****in awful game in every concievable way, and the two new games somehow fail at getting the original games' formula right. HE shouldn't be in smash. Period.

Nominations: Gordon Freeman x5

 

[amageish]

Bubsy

Chance: 0%. I was surprised to learn that his games have actually come out in Japan, which boosts has chances in my mind from 0% to the sky-high ranking of... 0%. This just isn't happening. Gag characters have happened and will continue to happen, but a primarily-western third party gag character? I don't see why Nintendo would see him as worth the development time, even if the series is coming back.

Want: 0%. I have no nostalgia for this franchise, be it pawsitive or negative; however, I'm not exactly interested in paying money for a character that amounts to such a giant joke. He would be a great April Fool's day mod though, if that hasn't happened already...

Nominations: Level-5 Rep x5

Predictions: Spring Man: 40% / Ribbon Girl: 30% / Ninjara: 40%

Also, side-note: For rating ARMS characters, are we rating on the assumption that each character will be the one and only ARMS rep? If so, should we make sure the total sum of every ARMS character rating doesn't go over 100%?

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

A copycat mascot of a copycat mascot

WHAT COULD PAWSIBLY GO WRONG?

Chance: 0%
I'm confident in saying he thankfully has pretty much no chance whatsoever, He's a character from a bygone era with his only real impact being of the infamous variety. Pretty much the only reason his series was revived was because it was a meme. And the revival wasn't even that good. That, and whilst having a couple releases in Japan, his notoriety in Japan is little to nonexistent. in a sea of hundreds of potential third party icons to choose from, I highly doubt stinkin' Busby of all characters would be prioritized by either Sakurai or especially Nintendo.

Want: 0%
Yeah, no thank you. Idk, the fact the IP holders ended up reviving this series with Woolies Strike Back seemingly just for the joke of it and not actually giving it some proper TLC really hampers my want for him for the time being. We've could've gotten something really good, to undo the wrongs the Bubsy name has brought in the past, but nope, just another half baked 2d platformer. I don't want the revival's existence to be justified by the "lol funny meme character" getting in. I'm usually all for joke characters, but if the IP holders are already treating the character's existence as a complete joke, I'd rather not reward them. If we get a legitimately good busby revival maybe I'll have a change of heart, but for now? Nah, hard pass for me chief.

Predictions Spring Man: 49.78%
(this one's gonna be interesting for sure. Probably some marginal differences in chance percentages, depending on where people fall regarding assist upgrades and such)

Predictions Ribbon Girl: 65%

Predictions Ninjara: 50%

Noms: Steve (rerate) x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstaining from Bubsy because I know nothing at all about him and won't have time to learn

Predictions:
Spring Man 30%
Ribbon Girl 30%
Ninjara 10 %

Noms:
Guardian x5

 

[NintenRob]

Double 0

Do I really have to explain? Please tell me I don't have to give an in depth explanation as to why Bubsy isn't going to be in Smash. His games are infamous, no one unironically likes them. There's so many characters people want and only 5 more characters left after ARMS. We're not going to get someone as terrible as god damn Bubsy. I mean this is a guy from a game that made up a company to promote one of the worst games ever made. He's beyond unpopular so they're not going to choose him.

Nominate no third parties in this pass x5

Predictions
Spring Man 51%
Ribbon Girl 46%
Ninjara 32%

 

[DanganZilla5]

Bubsy ugly polygons 3D

Chance: 0.01%

This guy is infamous and is iconic for all the wrong reasons. Consistently horrible games and awful quotes. "Look! An arrow! Aren't these game designers clever?" No they aren't Bubsy. And no one wants you in Smash. Even with two new games, they still weren't well received and only got attention because Bubsy's franchise should have stayed in the past and yet Bubsy is still here for the lolz and memes. He is the type of infamous character that Nintendo would never add even with them seemingly living in their own snow globe. Plus I can't imagine Bubsy having much of an interesting moveset. He just doesn't have much to work with.

Want: 0%

What really kills this score for me is the fact that Bubsy's moveset would not be fun. I don't mind joke characters, especially since they tend to bring very wacky and interesting movesets to the table. I would be more positive towards Bubsy if he was a part of this pattern and not an exception. He would be hilarious at first, but ultimately he would be a waste of a precious slot and would feel like a slap in the face. Imagine if Bubsy got in over the legendary platformer rep, Crash Bandicoot. I don't know about you guys, but I would be furious. I was about to give Bubsy a 5% but after thinking about all the characters that deserve to be in Smash, I lowered it to a rare 0% from me. Congratulations Bubsy, you just made it onto my s**t list. You would be hilarious as an assist trophy. But as a playable character? Over Crash Bandicoot? No way.

Predictions:
Spring Man - 45% (I will be cheering for this guy. If he is upgraded, the foundation of speculation will be toppled)
Ribbon Girl - 49%
Ninjara - 35%

Noms: Frank West x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Alright, I'm outta here, you can't make me...

Chance: What else is there to say? Nintendo and Sakurai picking a character only known from ****ty games? Very basic and shallow movepool? Negligible fan demand? 0%, I bet my bottom shoe that Bubsy will not only not be a fighter, but will miss the Smash train entirely. A freaking Mii Costume is too good for him. An assist trophy, a SPIRIT is too good for him.

Want: It's what he deserves, 0%. He's one of my few 0's to have nothing to do with a certain somebody (except maybe both have orange hair, kinda?), but more over than anything else, I'm not paying money for a character only from ****ty games. At least Icies had the decency to be base game. Imagine a third party character who could be received worse than either Jonesy or the next Fire Emblem Lord. Imagine that I agree with them.

SNES Era FF Rep x 5. Spring Man will likely see somewhere in the 30's, Ribbon Girl in the higher 30's, and Ninjara is the first of what I like to call randos, but he's a popular pick for a Hero situation so I'll ballpark him in the mid 20's. If I had to give arbitrary specific ones, 31.46%, 38.35%, and 24.50%.

 

[warpenguin55]

Bubsy
Chance: 0%
I'm just going to Parrot what I've seen others post. *Squawk*The games are terrible. Bubsy has no moveset potential. He's a western joke character *Squawk*

Want: 0%
I just learned who this was today. If all his games are getting bad reviews, no way do I want him.

Noms: Baldi x5
GoodGrief741 do I still have those last 5 noms? If so, Ahri x5 too.

 

[Sari]

I find it funny that Bubsy's obnoxious voice in Bubsy 3D is also the voice of Lucas in Smash. Relevant clip I found while making the music post.

Chance: 0%
Bubsy's games have never done well while Bubsy 3D in particular is regarded as one of the worst games in history. His last two games also did poorly plus Paws on Fire! failed to reach its proposed Kickstarter goal for additional content (meanwhile other series like Shovel Knight and Shenmue all did exceptionally well with their kickstarters). I see no reason why Nintendo would bother with him especially since he's more of a Western thing (not that he was ever a thing to begin with).

Also I just learned that Bubsy is now owned by a Hong Kong-based company, while The Woolies Strike Back was made by a German company and the following game (Paws on Fire!) was made by a California company. It's like that troublesome kid who keeps getting moved to different classes that no one wants.

Want: 0%
Just the thought of Bubsy getting over actually good platforming icons like Crash makes me want to vomit. I think everything can go wrong with his inclusion.

Sort of off topic but I sometimes wish Bubsy just went the Conker route and became a self-parodying mature platformer. What? It can't be worse than his last two soulless cash-grab games.

Chance predictions:
Spring Man: 50%
Ribbon Girl: 40%
Ninjara: 20%

Nominations:
Axel Stone x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Well, counting noms yesterday was odd. At first, I considered only counting those posts that acknowledged Devolver's unique situation and specifically stated they were reinterpreting the concept. But then I figured, in the spirit of the rule, to just ignore that fact and count all posts that qualified. I hope I did the right thing, because the schedule would look very different if I hadn't.

And what a day! It seems like everyone started playing aggressive with their extra noms at the same time (except for me, but I got my reasons). So, without further ado, the new schedule.

THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

Day 428: Concept: New Zelda character
Day 429: Alucard (Castlevania)
Day 430: Sirfetch'd (Pokémon)
Day 431: Concept: Assist Trophy becomes playable
Day 432: Minato Arisato (Megami Tensei/Persona)
Day 433: Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game
Day 434: Concept: Contra rep

In a never seen before stunt, Concept: Assist Trophy becomes playable joins the nominations list, rises through the ranks and scores fourth place in a single day. By its joining the top seven, it also took out 2 concepts (Gen 8 Pokémon, it turns out, would have lagged behind regardless). NintenRob you ought to be proud, all this while another concept of yours is also on the schedule. Minato Arisato passes A character who isn't the star of their own game, and makes it to fifth place. And as has been foreshadowed, Gen 8 Pokémon, Dragalia Lost rep, and Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) get shut out ( DanganZilla5 to think that if you hadn't nominated yesterday, they would have stayed in through a tie; alas, there is power in nominations). Despite this massive cluster****, the top three were not affected.

Your new top seven consists of Dragalia Lost rep, Civilization series stage with music (Standalone), Gen 8 Pokémon, Junko & Monokuma, Axel Stone, Earthworm Jim, and DLC music packs.

The top seven is packed tight, and the ones just below are very much in competition as well. I'd advice any of the people with characters and concepts up there not to let their guard down. I expected Earthworm Jim to be in third place today; instead, he's in sixth, and I'll have to nominate him for another week. Looks like it'll be a little longer before my plan can begin...

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Devolver Digital rep pre-Bubsy

[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x105
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x105
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x100
Junko & Monokuma x95
Axel Stone x95
Earthworm Jim x90
Concept: DLC music packs x85

100 - 51

Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x83
Decidueye x80
Concept: Level-5 rep x80
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Meowth x75
Brian (Quest 64) x70
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x65
Ahri (League of Legends) x62

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Guardian (Destiny) x50
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x48
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x40
Boss: Ender Dragon x37
Terra Branford x35
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x32
[Rerate] Kratos x30
[Rerate] Steve x30
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x25
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x25

Under 25

Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x22
Concept: Returning stages x21
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x18
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Zeraora x15
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x15
Black Shadow x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Stage: Bowser's Castle x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x5
Dr. Eggman x5
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2

Ahri rockets past 50 noms. I think she was nominated by like four different people. Is it because of the recent 4chan "leak"? Either way, quite the momentum she's got going all of a sudden.

(Sorry if all this Inside RTC is boring, it's just that this noms count was pretty wacky for multiple reasons and I figured somebody might be interested)

Perkilator 3DSNinja you might wanna change your noms right now.

Also, side-note: For rating ARMS characters, are we rating on the assumption that each character will be the one and only ARMS rep? If so, should we make sure the total sum of every ARMS character rating doesn't go over 100%?

There's nothing that prevents you from assuming that we'll get several ARMS characters, whether that be as alts, Echoes, or if you simply think we're getting two of the six fighters from ARMS.

Do I really have to explain? Please tell me I don't have to give an in depth explanation as to why Bubsy isn't going to be in Smash.

Sorry, but yes you do. Shouldn't be that hard, fortunately Bubsy gave more than enough reasons to justify a double zeroes.

do I still have those last 5 noms?

Sorry, you used them on Devolver's day.

 

[NintenRob]

(Sorry if all this Inside RTC is boring, it's just that this noms count was pretty wacky for multiple reasons and I figured somebody might be interested)

I actually find these posts interesting to read, so you shouldn't feel the need to apologize. I find it fascinating seeing what grows in the rank fast.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I watched Cats recently and I think Bubsy would actually improve it

Chance: 0%

I get the reasoning behind thinking Bubsy is possible. He's a notorious character, there's gotta be a universe in which he's in. However, when I put myself in Sakurai's shoes, or, more appropriately now, Nintendo's shoes, I don't see a line of thought that leads to his inclusion. Sure, Sakurai's been a troll before, but his troll characters have been 1. First party 2. Very creative characters and 3. Still from good games. Bubsy has none of that going for him. Yes, he is a famous third party character, but he's famous for being ridiculed. I guess it is possible that Nintendo is as tone-deaf to think a meme like him is actually demanded, and to be fair if he did get in you can bet your butts people would be calling themselves Bobcat Gang and defending his inclusion. I dunno, I guess in the end I can see a tiny glimmer of hope for him, but I just really don't think he's getting in and I don't want to give him more than 0.

Want: abstain

... I don't understand either. I typed double zeroes, read it twice, and it didn't feel right. I mean, 0% is such a strong number, I only give that to characters I hate. And... I can't bring myself to hate the idea of Bubsy in Smash, not with such passion. But at the same time, any number other than 0 would be a lie; I don't want Bubsy in Smash. I'm not rooting for him. I can't imagine how I'd react if he got in, but I don't believe it would be positive. I guess it comes down to the fact that I feel it's so unlikely it's not even worth considering.

Noms: Earthworm Jim x5
Spring Man prediction: this probably depends on whether people expect Assist Trophies to be promoted. I'll peg him at a healthy 50.34%
Ribbon Girl prediction: will probably ride his coattails as a likely Echo/alt, 44.17%
Ninjara prediction: despite his popularity, the Smash community forgets him in favor of Min Min and Twintelle. He'll probably only get nods from the "four alts/Echoes" crowd, so let's see how big it is. 23.22%

 

[Ninjaed]

Bubsy - double 0

Franchise was pretty much a failure after the 3D era begun, not fondly remembered. Nintendo would have very little interest in sacrificing a DLC slot for Bubsy. And that's without talking about his importance in video game history, which is... pretty much non-existent. I doubt Nintendo would go for infamous when they can go for famous instead. Oh and I hate his voice, I don't find his design appealing nor his character. I don't like him, don't want him.

Predictions:
Spring Man - 35%
Ribbon Girl - 50%
Ninjara - 20%

Nominations: Junko & Monokuma x5