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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

Sari

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Day over.

Rate Segata Sanshiro.

Predict Falinks from Pokemon.

Megadoomer Megadoomer

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Here are two songs to get into the Sega Saturn mood, as well as a compilation of commercials featuring Segata Sanshiro.

 

Perkilator

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Buy a Sega Saturn or I’ll Pee on Your Wife and the Moon
Chance: 0%

Segata-san may be a fictional character, but he still debuted as a commercial character, who was merely associated with video games. And no, Project X Zone 2 doesn’t help his case.

Want: 50%
If it were possible to get him in Smash at all, he’d at least make a hilarious Assist Trophy. He wouldn’t even need karate moves, just to judo throw opponents.

Falinks: 0%

Noms: Transferring custom moves to Echo Fighters x5
 

SKX31

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Sweden
Ryu: So, in mastering a path, you come to truly know yourself?
Segata: Yes, Ryu! Master the path of play! You must play the Sega Saturn!
Ken: Wait, is that your idea of training?

(Segata Sanshiro)

Chance: 0 % (for Ultimate at least)

Yeeeaah, not seeing it in the slightest sadly enough. If only because SEGA probably has quite a big of other characters they could pull from. Beyond Sonic's other characters there's Kiryu, Arle or more esoteric characters like Hatsune Miku and Football Manager / Total War representative. And yes I'm counting Hatsune because Nintendo's shown a willingness to stretch the definition of a video game character farther than some people like youtuber Ahoy has considered (Ahoy didn't count electronic games as video games in his "First video game" video - :ultgnw: is explicitedly an LCD or electronic representative). Maaaybe as a ROB-esque surprise pick down the line?

Want: 95 %

One of my pipedreams. Not a doubt in my mind. I just love intentionally ridicolous characters (often).

Predictions: Falinks 0,19 %

Noms: Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game x5
 

DanganZilla5

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2,434
Segata

Chance: 5%

So this guy was created to advertise the Sega Saturn. While he is a parody of a real-life person, he is still his own character. So at least in my mind, he is as much of a video game character as R.O.B is. So he is in the running. One positive is that Segata has a cult following and continues to appear in concerts and even has appearances in games like Project X Zone and a cameo in Sonic and All Stars Racing Transformed. He even had his own game back the day. So he is certainly not a forgotten relic from the past.

But would he be chosen for Smash? Unlikely. He is a Sega character so he is competing with characters like Arle Nadja and Kiryu. From the research I did, he isn't requested that much and he seems to have little music choices. Also, what stage would he even have? I guess from one of the minigames of his game. He doesn't seem to be that well-known in the West, aside from some journalists praising the character for his marketability. Personally I've never heard of him until last week and I don't think I've ever heard his name brought up which is a bad sign.

I do think he has a slight shot though. Mostly because of his on-going popularity in Japan. In fact in a fan poll of Sonic And All Stars Racing transformed, he came in third for the most wanted DLC chararacter, only behind Miku and Ryo Hazuki. That has to count for something. Though if I had to bet on a Sega character, he would not be it. Puyo Puyo, Yakuza and Shin Megami Tensei trounce him in terms of popularity.

Want: 40%

He would be an unexpectedly funny pick. I've seen some fan movesets for him so he seems like he could be fun. He represents more of the marketing side of gaming, with only ROB representing it, and even then he is more of a representation of Nintendo peripherals. If he is able to wield a Sega Saturn controller in his moveset, that alone would make his inclusion worth it for me. The only thing is that I would prefer Arle Nadja and even Kiryu from the Yakuza games.

Prediction: Falinks - 0.15% (Why? There is nothing special about this guy that would make him be included over the starters or legendaries)

Noms: Contra rep x5
 

NintenRob

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Just no

Double 0
Why would advertising stunt for Sega be playable. I know he has a cult following but he seriously bends the rule a bit much for my liking. At least with R.O.B. he was used with games straight from the start, plus he has the added boon of helping save the industry and actually being a Nintendo character Segato may appear in games, but I'm pretty sure he was only the star of one, and it was Japan exclusive. There are way more characters who should get in before his even a consideration.

Nominate someone who isn't the star of their own game x5

Predictions Falinks 0.7%
 

Ninjaed

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Nov 7, 2018
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468
Segata Sanshiro

I'm pretty sure hardly anyone here knows about him... and that's because he was exclusive to Japan. Segata Sanshiro was a marketing stunt devised by Sega to promote the Sega Saturn (his name is a pun which means "play the Sega Saturn" if you swap "ta" and "sa"), brought to life by the real life actor of Kamen Rider. His ads were so popular that they aired for 2-3 years straight. The Sega Saturn actually outsold the N64 and rivaled the PS1 in Japan mainly thanks to him.

The Sega Saturn sold 5.75 million units in Japan, surpassing the 3.58 million units of its predecessor, the Mega Drive, in the country.[12] This amount of sales also surpassed Nintendo's sales of 5.54 million units of the competitor Nintendo 64[13] and competed closely with Sony's PlayStation.
In his ads, you could see Segata Sanshiro in absurd, over the top situations. For example, beating teens into submission before handing them out a Sega Saturn for them to PLAY SERIOUSLY then leaving. Or throwing people AND THEY EXPLODE!! Or... flirting with his waifu, Sakura (from the series Sakura Wars). All while his very own theme is playing, that the actor eventually sung himself. Before performing in a live concert, that is. Here's a video compiling the ads as HD as possible (Sari posted them already but hey):


When it became Dreamcast time, Segata stopped a missile targeting the Sega office, redirecting it into space where he seemingly died... or did he? He's since retained a cult following in Japan. His success made him the star of at least 1 video game and cameo in a few others, including Dreamcast games or more recently Project X Zone 2. Finally, this year saw a "resurrection" of the character with Sega starring his (real-life) son, Sega Shiro (pun meaning "play Sega").

-
Chance: 4%
Segata is one aspect that Japanese Sega fans remember most fondly about Sega. To give you an idea, his PxZ2 cameo was first suggested by Bandai Namco themselves and not Sega. And right now, more than 20 years later, his son is taking up the flag - we'll see how well that goes...

Now I can understand some concerns that he's "not a video game character" or worse, played by a real-life actor... but I see his case as being more like ROB or Mr Game & Watch (who wasn't an actual character, but a "personification" of a console) - an important part of Sega's history as a whole. Back then, Sega was already starting to lag behind, yet thanks to him the Saturn sales eventually surpassed the N64's and secured Sega's place for a while longer. And besides, he is a fictional character, brought to life by an actor. A fictional character created for advertising video games. You can't dissociate "video games" from Segata Sanshiro. It's core to his existence.

Unfortunately, said existence isn't exactly known outside of Japan. Also, Smash is a mainly Nintendo-focused game. As such, Sega has to pick very carefully who they'd want in. From a marketing standpoint, Kiryu for example would make more sense. In a Sega-focused game, he'd be in 100% but even I acknowledge he'd be a bit of a stretch, what with Sega having already 2.5 reps. Or Incineroar possibly grabbing (get it?) his spot. Unfortunately.

Want: 90%
I want to throw people and then THEY EXPLODE!!! Mash those buttons with your fists!! As for his pummel, USE YOUR HEAD!! Ahh... Thinking back on it, I should've voted for the mii costume. But yeah, playing an over-the-top character like Segata is definitely my cup of tea. Not quite certain "over the top" and "tea" mesh well together but it is what it is. I liked Incineroar's gloating but playing him against Duck Hunt or MegaMan... yeah, I couldn't do it after a while on those semi-big to big stages. Shame that, he's fun to play.

Predictions: Falinks - 1%

Nominations: Junko & Monokuma x5

-
PS: I wonder, Segata Sanshiro is all about playing seriously UNTIL YOUR FINGERS BREAK. Is he (part of?) the reason why Kiryu was designed to take everything seriously? Even toy car races?

PPS: Speaking of Kiryu, completely forgot to point out during Kiryu and Ryo's days - stuff like QTE are Yu Suzuki's work. Started in Shenmue. Mentioning it because people here didn't seem to grasp the scope of that legacy and possibly figured it was limited to spawning Yakuza.
 
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Ramen Tengoku

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SEGATAAAAA SANSHIRO SEGATAAAA SANSHIRO

SEGA SAAATUURN SHIROOOOOOOOOO

Chance: 2%
First up, I need to discuss the elephant in the room, would Segata even qualify? He didn't originate from a video game itself. And to that I say yes. He was made with video games in mind, his commercials promoted a game console and he's owned by the video game company in question. I'd say he's in a similar area as ROB

That being said, none of this help his chance. First up his commercials were exclusive to Japan. We've only have a couple cases of Japanese exclusive characters on the roster. Marth and Roy seem to be products of their time, and in Lucas' case, development was already put into him before sakurai found out Mother 3 was gonna be a Japanese only release. Smash seems to have strayed away from region exclusive characters these days, and I don't really blame em.

That and Segata's probably very low on the priority list when it comes to potential Sega candidates. He's irrelevant, and he has been since the Saturn went off the market over two decades ago (that being said, Sega did just recetly launch a campaign in celebration of their 60th Anniversary with a character supposed to be Segata's son, heck he's even played by Segata actor, Hiroshi Fujioka's real life son. Though Segata himself isn't really present at all). Sure, he has a cult status, but I do think more relevant and notable Sega franchises are likely to prioritized first. We're talking franchises like Puyo Puyo, Yazuka, and when you bring Atlus into the mix we've got even more with the likes of Shin Megami Tensei (Yes I'm counting Persona and SMT as two separate franchises) and Etrian Odyssey

Want 100%
Heck yeah! He'd be such a fun inclusion. Such an intriguing piece of gaming history. The commercials have so much they would pull from, and of course, the rocket Final Smash is a must

Predictions: Falinks: 0.51%

Noms: Steve (Rerate) x5
 
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3DSNinja

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The Guy Who Fought Chuck Norris
Chance:0%: He's an obscure marketing promo character from the Saturn era. he's almost certainly not even in consideration.
Want:100%: Over the top characters are the best, and Segata could do that perfrctly. he's also hilarious, so he's I want him.
Nominations: Minato Arisato x5
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Segata

Double 0s - This is really, really pushing the line between 4th party and not. Ignoring that, there's Arle, Kiryu, Sonic reps, and other actual characters who would be more likely. 2nd, we're not doing a 3rd party troll character for Smash. That's insane. There's also the issue of licensing the actor which I dont know much about, but it seems like a lot for a mascot from years and years ago. There's also really no reason for Nintendo to want to pick him for the game. Just overall, no please.

Predictions
Falinks - .10(sad, because this would own so much)

Noms
Guardian x5
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

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Buy a Sega Saturn or you will be the one underperforming for life
Chance: 0%
Segata usually doesn't make a playable appearance in SEGA crossover games, I don't see what business he'd in a Nintendo one. He may have a cult following but in general, Segata is a character of his time. I don't feel like the majority of the Smash Bros audience would know who he is, especially those outside Japan. Sakurai quote I know but I can't really imagine some Nintendo higher up choosing a decades old advertising character they don't own, who promoted a failed system that wasn't even one of theirs.
Lastly, while he isn't really in the same ballpark as Iron Man or Goku, being a commercial character first would put him on thin ice. He may be perceived as opening the floodgates to alot of people, which Sakurai would likely want to avoid.


Want: 5%
I guess it would be a sight to behold and I can see the appeal. Personally tho, I don't see it really being healthy to Smash and speculation in the long run. This would absolutely fuel the non-ironic Goku and other 4th parties supporters and you know it. That and I'd prefer Arle, Beat or Eggman anyway.


Falinks: 2.12%
Dr Eggman x5
 
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chocolatejr9

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Sep 30, 2018
Messages
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The Guy Who Fought Chuck Norris
Legend has it they're still fighting to this very day...

Sagata Sanshiro

Chance: 0%
Before you ask, I do agree that Segata is in a R.O.B. situation, where he's technically not a video game character, but is so heavily associated with games that he may as well be. Problem is, Sega has plenty of other characters to pick from, and he only recently got a revival, albeit through his son. Needless to say, he isn't happening.
Want: 100%
I have no idea what this guy's deal is with the Saturn, but I love it. His absurdity alone makes me want a Mii costume at least. Plus, I honestly think Smash needs more Japan-exclusive characters: it helps spice things up more, in my opinion.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5
 

warpenguin55

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490
Segata

Double 0's
From what I can tell after doing a little bit of research, this is a 4th party character. He originated in a commercial and afterwards was included in a few Sega games. I'll put him in my acceptable 4th party section with Mike Tyson & Wreck-It Ralph since he's heavily tied into video games. I really don't want a 4th party character as a DLC pick, especially one I just learned the existence of this month.



Predict: Falinks .5%

Noms: Ahri x5, Baldi x5
 
D

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Segata Sanshiro

Chance: 1%

Yeah I'm not so keen on Segata's chances. Nintendo are probably more interested in bringing characters from video game franchises to Smash rather than a mascot solely to advertise a console. Now, maybe there is some value in that since it's still a part of video game history, but I don't believe Nintendo would see Segata bringing more value to them compared to whoever are in Vol 2 especially with him being used only in Japanese ads.

Even though he seems like a character that would get a 0% rating, I will also mention somethings that at least makes him look like a possibility. For example, Segata has that wtf factor since who could possibly expect him of all characters in Smash? While more people will compare him to R.O.B, I'd say he's more comparable to Kevin Butler. Both characters were the faces of their respective console ads and were very popular back when those commercials were still around. While the Kevin Butler stuff ended on a sour note and is seemingly forgotten nowadays, Segata is still a pretty popular character remembered for those Sega Saturn ads in Japan and even cameo'd in Project X Zone 2. Then, we got Sega's 60th Anniversary special having Sega Shiro who is apparently the son of Segata Sanshiro both in and out of character which is actually pretty cool. It shows us that Sega likes to acknowledge Segata's existence, so he could still be a possibility despite the ads only airing in Japan.

Want: 55%

Hey you know he's a pretty out there character. I may not want him so much, but I would like to see him become a fighter. Maybe his trailer will give us the closure of what happened to him after the events of the last Sega Saturn ad. I'll also be very interested in how they handle the rest of his content like the stage and spirits. Will he come with spirits from Sega Saturn games? Will his stage just be a giant Sega Saturn? Who knows for sure.

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Predictions:
Falinks - 1.44%
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Noms:
Lu Bu x5
 

Drason

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Segata Sanshiro

Chance: 5%
While he is a pretty obscure character than most others, that doesn't mean he can't be in. Japan-only hasn't stopped other characters from getting in. My real question is how this would be done since he technicall didn't come from a video game but his image is heavily associated with it. The thing that really kills his chances is he's heavily associated with the Saturn
Want:50%
I desperately want to see his moveset and the refrences they'd make with him. One of these things that would make it for me is if they made his moveset heavily based on his commercials and his final smash was like a combination of all the SEGA hardware. Or the missle commercial would be good too
 

Proceleon

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Chance: 2%
While he isn't technically a video game character, neither is R.O.B., so I'd say he's close enough to qualify, but his general lack of priority on Sega's end means he's not usually thought about even by Sega themselves. He was acknowledged in both Sonic & Sega All-Stars Racing Transformed as a cameo and Project X Zone 2 as a solo unit, so there's precedent for him making the jump. Not like Nintendo need to worry about people buying Sega Saturns anymore, right? Might be a good console rep like Terry was for Neo Geo.
The only thing maybe holding him back is using Hiroshi Fujioka's likeness.

Want: 50%
Having known that Sega is willing to put him in video games, I would be pleasantly surprised to see him, even if his look might get confused with Ryu at a distance.
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
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Sep 22, 2012
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10,169
The Messiah of Gaming

Chance: 4%
Segata didn't begin his life as a character in a game, but he definitely is a gaming character. He doesn't exist without the Sega Saturn, and it's impossible to remove him from the context of gaming. Hell, he eventually did get his own game. So I think he definitely qualifies under the guidelines that gave us Mr. Game & Watch, R.O.B., and the Super Scope as an item. Honestly, I'm surprised so many of you are labeling him as obscure - I thought gaming YouTube had done plenty of work in making him known to gamers all around the globe, but maybe I overestimated his fame. Still, for what was just a commercial mascot, Segata's pretty relevant, cameoing in Project X Zone and his son, Sega, being the mascot of a new series of ads.

But still, it would be hard to get a character pass out of him. Either you pull all the content from his mediocre game, or you make Spirits out of the people in his ads. You could get a stage, I guess, but music would definitely be an issue. And that's without mentioning the competition.

I will point out that if he were a Nintendo character, with how successful he was as a mascot, we might already have gotten him (perhaps in lieu of Wii Fit Trainer).

Want: 87%
I mean Segata's just ****ing cool. He's a pastiche of a Kurosawa character who fights so that people might be saved from the indignity of not playing Sega Saturn. Dude got a ****ing hero's journey, he married a videogame character, had a kid, then he sacrificed his life to save Sega from destruction. This is the kind of hero we need, but don't deserve.

I'd pay a good dollar for a deluxe Mii Costume of Segata with his theme song, is what I'm saying. Get on it, Sakurai.

Noms: Earthworm Jim x5
Falinks prediction: Is Falinks a meme? Noticed a lot of people discussing him as a Smash character, but in a joking way, and he's... A caterpillar. Would appreciate it if someone answered that for me.
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
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Segata Sanshiro

Chance: 0.5% - Segata's a lot like Wreck It Ralph in that he's meant to be game-related in universe but originates from another kind of media in our own. He's also interesting in the fact that despite being used solely as advertising for the Sega Saturn, he's made several appearances in games and concerts, retaining some relevance in the process (including Sega All Stars Racing Transformed, which was fairly recent, along with his son being the star of a new series of ads). His game and commercial experiences also give him plenty of moveset potential. But despite how successful he was at his job, I can't see this translating into Smash chances.

The first is that he doesn't really have any history with Nintendo, and SEGA has a lot of more popular choices to choose from, Like Eggman, Aiai, Arle, Kityu, etc. Despite his cult following in Japan, he has little to no fan demand for a spot in Smash. As a result I just don't see him as a character that's on Nintendo's radar. Sakurai might see him appealing, though, due to his historical relevance in gaming. But Nintendo is choosing the characters, and it would depend on whether or not Segata counts as a game character in their eyes

Want: 20% - He'd certainly bring a lot of personality with him, but we also have a lot of important characters that should take priority, especially with the limited remaining slots. Though if we had more slots then he'd definitely be a funny addition to the cast. His spirit board could be interesting as well, consisting of characters that were prominent on the Saturn.


Nominations:
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (standalone) x5


Predictions:
Falinks - 10.46%



And yes I'm counting Hatsune because Nintendo's shown a willingness to stretch the definition of a video game character farther than some people
Miku originated as a mascot for professional voice synthesizer software. ROB and G&W originated in/as products explicitly and directly related to games.

The latter two are also heavily associated with games. Miku, while having games, is primarily associated with music.
 
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Jomosensual

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Messages
2,014
Falinks prediction: Is Falinks a meme? Noticed a lot of people discussing him as a Smash character, but in a joking way, and he's... A caterpillar. Would appreciate it if someone answered that for me.
Sort of? Like they're funny little dudes who march together so yeah, there's some memes to be had there but I wasnt noming him for the memes.

Segata didn't begin his life as a character in a game, but he definitely is a gaming character.
Question on this part. I thought the origins matter for a character more than what they developed into, which is why someone like Geralt from the Witcher series isn't really in consideration.
 

Sari

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First Kiryu, then Ryo Hazuki, now Segata, and in a week or two we'll be rating Axel Stone. This thread has been getting a lot of Sega love lately.

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Segata Sanshiro

Chance: 0%
I really don't see Sakurai/Nintendo bargaining with Sega to add what is essentially a parody character. They have a lot of other characters/series to choose from not to mention Segata's commercials were mainly exclusive to Japan. I can't really describe it exactly but this just screams Mii Costume potential.

Want: 20%
This would be a bit amusing but there are just a ton of other Sega characters I'd want to see first. I'd probably be more interested in him than Ryo Hazuki but characters like Arle, Axel, and Kiryu just appeal to me more when it comes to another Sega character.

Another Pokemon that obviously isn't gonna get in chance prediction: 0.5%

Nominations:
Axel Stone x5
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Alucard (Castlevania) x115
Sirfetch'd x110
Concept: New Zelda character x108
Concept: Contra rep x95
Minato Arisato x95
Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game x95
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x90
[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x90
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x90

100 - 51

Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x81
Decidueye x80
Junko & Monokuma x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Meowth x75
Earthworm Jim x75
Concept: DLC music packs x75
Axel Stone x75
Concept: Darksiders rep x70
Brian (Quest 64) x70
Concept: Level-5 rep x70

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x40
Boss: Ender Dragon x37
Terra Branford x35
Guardian (Destiny) x35
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x33
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x32
[Rerate] Kratos x30
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Ahri (League of Legends) x27
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
[Rerate] Steve x25

Under 25

Concept: Returning stages x21
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x20
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x20
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x18
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Zeraora x15
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Black Shadow x10
Stage: Bowser's Castle x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x7
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x5
3 Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2

A character who isn't the star of their own game speeds past Gen 8 Pokémon, Dragalia Lost rep, and Civilization series stage with music (Standalone), to tie with Contra rep and Minato Arisato for 4th place.

Ahri switches to the over 25 lane. (This is what it looks like when I try to use LoL jargon, pray I never attempt it again)

Question on this part. I thought the origins matter for a character more than what they developed into, which is why someone like Geralt from the Witcher series isn't really in consideration.
See, I think Geralt is very much in consideration. As far as I'm concerned what matters isn't the origin of the character per se, rather that their impact is as a gaming character first and foremost. We've already seen this in Smash: Shin Megami Tensei began life as two book adaptations, yet because the franchise became successful and famous in the videogame medium, it's fine to include it in Smash. I think The Witcher, which is far more famous and influential in its game incarnation than any other, qualifies in the same manner.
First Kiryu, then Ryo Hazuki, now Segata, and in a week or two we'll be rating Axel Stone. This thread has been getting a lot of Sega love lately.
That might be because Sega's giving a lot of Sega love lately. All four of those characters have had recent projects that brought them back into the limelight, so it's only natural for us to want to rate them.

Now c'mon Sega, give us an excuse to rate NiGHTs.
 

Proceleon

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Forgot to add that using Hiroshi Fujioka's likeness might be a major issue.
 

Ridrool64

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New Jersey
Super Smash Bros. x Planet 6

Chance: 0% (actually, it's -100%, I'm very confident he's not happening, but for the sake of reference that's what I'm calling it). As far as I'm concerned, he fails the one and only step to even be remotely in consideration, he's straight up not a video game character. "But, technically, neither is R.O.B! But, just like the robot, Segata Sanshiro is purely relevant to video games even if he was made for commercials. Which means that Segata can still win." Well, R.O.B is at least a first party who doesn't have anybody's likeness, and is also directly used for NES games, but none of those points apply to Segata. He's (physically) based on a real-life person, Kunihiro Fujioka (better known as Hiroshi Fujioka), and I think that's straight-up a bridge too far. We've had characters who look realistic, but never a character who straight up looks like a real person, and I highly doubt that's gonna change, like... ever. Now let's assume that Nintendo and Sakurai disagree, that to them he DOES, in fact, count under the R.O.B clause, and let's also say that any messiness coming from him looking like a real person can be sorted out (say, Fujioka gives them the A-OK to use his likeness). Now you have to give me a solid reason that he'd get in over Kazuma Kiryu, or Arle Nadja, or somebody else from Atlus like the Demi-fiend. I'm pretty sure that even another Sonic character would take priority, especially if it's Nintendo's choice. Even then, let's say that they decided to make Segata the one to get the challenger pack, what would his Spirit Board be? What music does he have to come with? What would his stage be? It's factors like these that make him basically a farce for a challenger pack, which we can presume that's what we're rating (what is the chance that Segata Sanshiro will get a challenger pack in Fighter's Pass Vol. 2?), and is safely going into the never-ever category.

Want: 0%. One, Arle. Two, I draw the line at real people myself (like, as long as they have gaming history of any kind, I'm willing to entertain characters who don't necessarily come from games, but a straight up real person is kinda my limit), and even if Segata isn't literally a real person he bears the likeness of one so I consider him close enough that it'd be a big problem. Even if he had games and was in them, I still can't really say that he counts in my head. This is like my old take on Carmen Sandiego, except he isn't even de jure from video games (but he could be argued to be de facto from games).

Don't get me wrong here, Segata Sanshiro is pretty darned great, and so are his ads! But I think him in Smash would not be very great. In fact it'd be the dead opposite, the moment where I'd say the series jumps the shark. Not Corrin, not a Piranha Plant, not Byleth, and likely not Geralt, probably not even frigging Goku or Bubsy would make me think the series has jumped the shark. But Segata Sanshiro, opening the door (even slightly) to real people, is where I would say it.

SNES era FF rep x 5. Falinks has literally nothing going for it, can't say I think it's likely. I'm going to predict the want instead of the chance, 39.30%. (If I'm only allowed to predict chance, 0.58%.)
 
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chocolatejr9

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 30, 2018
Messages
8,382
Now c'mon Sega, give us an excuse to rate NiGHTs.
First of all, you spelt "Billy Hatcher" wrong. Secondly, you could just easily nominate them just to see what people think of them. I mean, I don't think Freddy Fazbear is happening, but I was curious about what people thought of him, so I nommed him anyways. There's no shame in starting a unique discussion, especially since most people talk about the same four or five characters when it comes to Smash.
 

amageish

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 21, 2018
Messages
3,558
Segata Sanshiro

Chance: 0%.
In a hypothetical timeline where Nintendo had an advertising mascot character with Segata's level of iconicness and absurdism, I feel like that character would be a pretty likely candidate for Smash as one of the absurdist/purposefully-weird characters (a la ROB or Game & Watch). As a third party though... I just can't see why Nintendo or Sega would want to pick him?

Sega has three characters in Smash, but they really have 1 homegrown SEGA character, 1 ATLUS character, and 1 Platinum Games character that SEGA owns but Nintendo now publishes. I don't see them being like "Oh, yeah, sure, it's totally time to add a character from our ads!" at this point? SEGA has plenty of iconic characters with no representation in Smash - not as spirits, mii costumes, or anything. I don't see this happening at this time.

Want: 0% (as DLC)
If they tossed him in as a hidden character in a base game, then I'd laugh and be happy. I'm not super into the idea of paying a premium for a joke character though. Maybe if he came with a tonne of Sega Saturn music and a retro-style stage, representing an era of Sega and not just the character himself, but otherwise... He's a funny absurdist mascot, and I'd be totally down to see him in future SEGA crossover games, but I don't need him in Smash.

Noms: Level-5 Rep x 5
Falinks: 2%.
 

Calamitas

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 17, 2018
Messages
2,689
Location
Germany
You've heard of Segata Sanshiro, now, get ready for: Nintendorian Kunkuro

Chance: 0%
If Smash Bros. were a series developed by Sega, and that was initially conceived to celebrate its history, then I could see it. But for a Nintendo game? As DLC, no less? There's not a chance in hell. Segata Sanshiro was originally a character for commercials, and only made some minor video game appearances decades after the fact. Comparing him to R.O.B. - who, let's not forget, came with several actual video games to begin with - is honestly just ludicrous. And beyond even that, are you forgetting how Ultimate's DLC outside of Piranha Plant operates? There's music, there's a stage, there's a Spirit Board, not just a fighter. How would you even fill any of those? This is honestly just a character where I'll say with absolute certainty that he's never happening.

Want: 0%
I have absolutely no connection to Sega as a console manufacturer. Even my connection to them as a video game publisher doesn't really extend much beyond me having had a bit of a Sonic phase about a decade ago. I really don't want to see this kind of character in Smash.

Predicting Falinks to get around 1.55555%.

Nominating Concept: A New Zelda Character x5.
 

Cadillac

Smash Seeker
Joined
Oct 29, 2019
Messages
665
Abstain. I don't know anything about him. But seeing what people are saying I don't think he's happening.

Falinks: 12.2%

Noms: Saki Amamiya x5
 

Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
468
The Messiah of Gaming

Chance: 4%
Segata didn't begin his life as a character in a game, but he definitely is a gaming character. He doesn't exist without the Sega Saturn, and it's impossible to remove him from the context of gaming. Hell, he eventually did get his own game. So I think he definitely qualifies under the guidelines that gave us Mr. Game & Watch, R.O.B., and the Super Scope as an item. Honestly, I'm surprised so many of you are labeling him as obscure - I thought gaming YouTube had done plenty of work in making him known to gamers all around the globe, but maybe I overestimated his fame. Still, for what was just a commercial mascot, Segata's pretty relevant, cameoing in Project X Zone and his son, Sega, being the mascot of a new series of ads.

But still, it would be hard to get a character pass out of him. Either you pull all the content from his mediocre game, or you make Spirits out of the people in his ads. You could get a stage, I guess, but music would definitely be an issue. And that's without mentioning the competition.

I will point out that if he were a Nintendo character, with how successful he was as a mascot, we might already have gotten him (perhaps in lieu of Wii Fit Trainer).

Want: 87%
I mean Segata's just ****ing cool. He's a pastiche of a Kurosawa character who fights so that people might be saved from the indignity of not playing Sega Saturn. Dude got a ****ing hero's journey, he married a videogame character, had a kid, then he sacrificed his life to save Sega from destruction. This is the kind of hero we need, but don't deserve.

I'd pay a good dollar for a deluxe Mii Costume of Segata with his theme song, is what I'm saying. Get on it, Sakurai.

Noms: Earthworm Jim x5
Falinks prediction: Is Falinks a meme? Noticed a lot of people discussing him as a Smash character, but in a joking way, and he's... A caterpillar. Would appreciate it if someone answered that for me.
The spirits and stage aren't even why I should've voted for the mii costume of Segata. You could easily put Sakura and other Sega Saturn characters. As for the stage, could be like Garreg Mach, switching between stages from different games - Sakura Wars, Panzer Dragoon, Dragon Force, Nights into Dreams, Virtua Fighter. Could pick the music from those too. Nah, reason why I should've voted for the mii costume is that he's so damn unlikely, despite how fun it'd be to see him in Smash.
 

BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
1,918
Location
winnipeg
Segata

Chance: 5%. While he main appears in the commercials for Sega Saturn, he helps produce the sales for the game. Of course the chance of him getting in the game is very low, due to other Sega Reps and competition, but he ain't going down that easily, I can tell you that. Either way, it will be surprising.

Want: 50%. He has potential as a fun joke character, while also doubling as an unexpected rep. Either way, Him Fighting many characters of Nintendo would be a decent matchup, as well as him assisting Sonic in fights. Overall, he would be a fun and surprising addition to the Roaster.

Prediction: Falinks (15%)

Noms: 2 for Black Shadow and 3 for New Zelda Rep
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Forgot to add that using Hiroshi Fujioka's likeness might be a major issue.
I don't think it would be that much of a hassle, he's already appeared in several games. Sega also has a character that blatantly looks like Bruce Willis, and that one also did cameos. I think they also have a good relationship with Segata's actor's son, so even if licensing was required it could be done.
We've had characters who look realistic, but never a character who straight up looks like a real person
Dr. Kawashima and Mr. Wright?
First of all, you spelt "Billy Hatcher" wrong. Secondly, you could just easily nominate them just to see what people think of them. I mean, I don't think Freddy Fazbear is happening, but I was curious about what people thought of him, so I nommed him anyways. There's no shame in starting a unique discussion, especially since most people talk about the same four or five characters when it comes to Smash.
I'm fine with not rating NiGHTs, what I do want is a new game. Billy Hatcher though, that's another great choice for a new game.
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,784
Segata Sanshiro

Chance - 0% - While this off-beat wacky fighter might fly if it was a Nintendo character on the base roster, I don't think that's the sort of thing they would go to a third party for. They need something that will guarantee a return, and this seems super risky due to having to pay for a rather unorthodox character, especially when Sega has several other notable characters in their backlog who would certainly be suggested before him.

Want - 40% - He might be funny for a few moments. I would view him as a wasted slot, though, as there are better characters even from Sega (Arle comes to mind).

Nominatinos

Nippon Ichi rep X5
 

Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
4,439
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Day over.

Rate Falinks from Pokemon.

Predict Concept: Devolver Digital rep.

Megadoomer Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Falinks mood:


Ok jokes aside here are the real songs:

 

Perkilator

Smash Legend
Writing Team
Joined
Apr 8, 2018
Messages
11,407
Location
The perpetual trash fire known as Planet Earth(tm)
Falinks for inspection!

Chance: 0%
These little guys are for from the first thing Sakurai would think of when it comes to Gen VIII reps. That’s not to deny that a fair share of people have taken note of it, though.

Want: Abstain
Sirfetch’d is my go-to idea for a Gen VIII rep. That, and I haven’t caught a Falinks yet, so I can’t give a fair judgement on how it would work in Smash.

Devolver Digital: IDK

Noms: Sirfetch’d x5
 
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D

Deleted member

Guest
I'm abstaining on Falinks entirely because I'm going to be focused on talking about Devolver Digital for tomorrow.
---------------
Predictions:
Devolver Digital Rep - 2%
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Noms:
Lu Bu x5
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Falinks

Chance 0 - There's a good chance we dont get a Pokemon at all and if we do it won't be Falinks. It's more likely we get a legendary, a starter, a mythical, or a Pokemon to rep the DLC. A shame, but that's the world of Smash speculation we live in. There's so many Pokemon that could be great additions that aren't ever in consideration.

Want 100 - This would be so fun and unique. If there's a gen 8 pokemon rep I want it to be Falinks. There's ways to make him work that are fun and unqiue, maybe like an Ice Climbers with more numbers or something. This would be just so fun and weird I cant help but want it

Predictions
Devolver Digital - 0%

Noms
Guardian x5
 

warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
490
Falinks

Chance: 0%
I don't see us getting anymore joke picks, which is Falink's only shot to get in. As funny as a 6 man Ice Climbers could be, its not happening. Maybe we could get a pokeball of it in smash 6?

Want: 50%
Is anyone else annoyed that Falinks doesn't evolve into like a bunch of them growing some wings and making a butterfly formation. That would be one of my favorite pokemon ever.

Predict: Devolver Digital 1.2%

Noms: Ahri x5, Baldi x5
 
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DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,434
Falinks

Chance: 0.01%

I don't see why this Pokemon would be included over any of the starters or legendaries. Maybe if this was the base roster then we could get another joke character, but as DLC I don't see this happening (And don't bring up Piranha Plant because he was meant for base roster). Maybe I'm being too harsh as Falinks does seem to have a level of popularity, but even if the Gen 8 starters and legendaries are deconfirmed with the spirit event, there are still other popular Gen 8 Pokemon like Toxitricity and Dragapult for example. Not to mention the possibility of a shill pick from the DLC expansion.

Want: 40%

I know I'm harsh on Falink's chances but while doing research it started to hit me why this little guy (or guys) seem to be so likable and why they were nominated. It's a worm made out of six different beings. It's such a weird concept that it's interesting to imagine how it would work in Smash. This character would probably be one of the most unique fighters in Smash and I find it funny that it's a fighting type Pokemon. But I'm giving it a 40% because there are other Pokemon I'm more interested in and even then I'm not actively rooting for another Pokemon. Right now I'm interested in seeing new franchises get represented and other franchises/games get the representation they deserve like Golden Sun and Xenoblade Chronicles 2.

Prediction: Devolver Digital rep - 3.50% (In my opinion, the only chance they have is with The Messenger and that's an indie game so it's not a high chance)

Noms: Contra rep x5
 
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