You're fine really. The only problem you're having is that you experimented with some new aggression ideas and they didn't work out, but that's what experimentation is all about. But it's true, I did have more room to move when i played you this time around, and going youtube warrior for all of 15 minutes confirmed it. Here, follow me on this:
i don't have a video of the tournament you were at in california a few weeks ago but your set with all of the WC spacies did not look like how you were playing in this video. the main difference IMO is that when you go in, everything leads to something that is effectively unblockable for one reason or another (low aerial or laser and ends in shine, grab, shinegrab). I think the main thing is that you're using lasers and movement to set up strong angles for yourself, weak angles for your opponent, or you simply trap them.
I think the other main thing out of your initial hits on shine or grab is that you always immediately set up a HUGE advantage off of them by positioning or time. By that I mean, when you get the grab, it's always something like forward throw > set up edge guard or upthrow > free combo damage. But honestly, i think the shine is better between the two. almost every shine is a reset with a cancel in place, which gives you a MASSIVE amount of time to react to DI or to go for a better combo. in a lot of the cases, your combo here is simple a well placed dair setup > dair. I don't see you going for as many aerial approaches at your best, so it starts to look like a flow chart of sorts that looks like this:
neutral game > positioning/laser advantage (same thing really) > "unblockable" approach > set up a kill/gain as much damage momentum as possible if you can't get the kill.
the thing is, because of how you're setting it up, predictability is only a minor issue because there's a strong sense of inevitability. i think the strength of your offense has been reduced because of your new approaches not being as strong, both the approaches themselves are easier to defend against, but once you hit you're also not getting that strong punishment game because the hit-confirms don't give you as much opportunity to get the ideal punish out of them.
review these, you'll see what i mean:
vs the same MU
unfortunately there's not much continuity against players that you've played (at least on video) over the past year and a half or so and i didn't have much luck looking for the same players, but you can still observe the pattern pretty clearly once you see it. the sad thing is that your offense is still at 90% of what you were doing before and none of the things you're doing are bad per se, they're just not as good and falco is as frail as ever. i think the weaker offense gives that wiggle room we were texting about, and not killing your opponent is giving them more opportunities to fight you and hit you back.
in short, you only kinda ****. you're just not ****** enough.
i can go over this is MUCH more detail because i found TONS of examples because it's a continuous trend. if you want me to i will but we can save it for aim like the teams thing if you want or whatever you think will help you the most. let me know.
edit: green tea *****.