It was when they announced that Sakurai would be making Brawl. Miyamoto himself said that Sakurai was very important to Brawl because of his networking abilities. (Yes, obviously, Sakurai's skill as a game designer in general is also very important: he made some of the best 16-bit games we've ever known. That much is obvious.) Networking is an EXTREMELY important skill for even regular game designers, let alone one making a game based on so many different franchises. In the interview with Aonuma, he even said that when Brawl was announced it was the only thing anybody at Nintendo could think about for a while. Sakurai's job most likely consists of overseeing the entirety of the development of the game and conversing with franchise heads to see what will work and what they would like, what compromises can be made for the benefit of Brawl. "Talking to people," is a HUGE part of ANY game designer's job. They don't just sit at their desk freaking writing essays about how to make the game properly: they're running around their offices, dealing with teams of programmers, artists, and others to make sure a cohesive game vision is coming together as a whole. And, yes, Sakurai has the added load of regularly talking to people in charge of multiple franchises. He's in charge of Smash because he's good at all of this and MORE.
You said something about Sakurai and GameFreak meeting just 'to make Lucario popular.' I said no, they wouldn't do that. Obviously.
So(supposedly,) Pit's designer didn't see the model and redesign until after it was finished. What does this have to do with anything? It just means that Sakurai didn't show it to him during the period of time where they were making it. That's like a two week span of time. The only point here is that Sakurai didn't meet with the manager of a tiny, old franchise for like two weeks during development. ? And (supposedly) they like the Fox model so they're going to use it in the next Star Fox. How does that signify that Sakurai hadn't been talking to them regularly anyway?
Would they select what is "Brawl material?" Maybe. Look, there's literally only one of three ways this could have gone down.
1) GameFreak shows Sakurai all new 4th gen pokemon. Marketing DOES play a role in this, so they point out the ones that will be used to push the gen, noting them a little aside from all the rest. Dialga, Palkia, Darkrai, Munchlax, Lucario, whoever else whoever else. Sakurai knows he exists along with the rest.
2) Sakurai outright asks "I want to see them all, but (because he's a very respectful man, as we know,) is there anybody you think would be good for the game?" A number of them would certainly be mentioned, along with Lucario. Sakurai knows he exists, along with the rest.
3) Either party tenaciously asks or presents relevant pokemon right off the bat. Sakurai asks questions like, "So I heard about Lucario/Darkrai/Gallade(?)," or The Pokemon Company says, "Actually, we've got a few already lined up we think would be pretty good for the game, (our pokemans, let us show you them.)" Sakurai knows he exists, and he has even been relatively pushed for the position.
As far as I'm concerned, there's no way in hell Sakurai could've gone to talk to TPC about the new batch of pokeymans and Lucario COULDN'T have come up.
Again, um, no, he doesn't have to keep everyone constantly in the loop, as you said. But Sakurai WOULD have spoken with all parties before he finalized the character roster selection. Simple as that.
We don't know what 4th genners Sakurai 'picked.' NOWHERE did I say that Sakurai factually saw Lucario and went HE'S IN THE GAME! I simply keep responding to the same points: Sakurai had to have known about Lucario, and there's a good chance he knew about Nintendo's push for him from the marketing department as well. YES, he could've said, "Screw Lucario, let's put in Probopass!" It's a possibility. But the simple argument presented here is this, AGAIN:
1) Sakurai had to have known about Lucario before finalizing the roster.
2) Sakurai very likely knew how much Nintendo was going to hype Lucario for the fourth gen.
Following this logic: Sakurai most likely knows that Lucario is going to be very well hyped and likely widely known. He is an appropriate size for Brawl, generally uses moves that could both be bent into an interesting moveset while very well-fitting for a fighting game, and has loads of personality (whether you like that personality or not is, unfortunately, irrelevant.)
Like him or not...these are fairly solid assumptions that state that Lucario, simply, has a good chance of being in Brawl. If you can't honestly fess up to these facts and admit he has a good chance of being in the game, then you're not even trying to properly debate.
If you want to tell me he 'shouldn't be in,' he's boring, that there are many other more interesting pokemon, feel free. That's great. But the fact remains: he is a contender for that open spot.
And Jesus, what's with you people and having seizure-fits about the movie? It...exists, doesn't it? That means it matters. People bought the DVD. Period: it matters. Deoxys and his movie aren't really much for a point of comparison. As a candidate, he has a number of features that make him less likely, and frankly, he accrued very little personality during the course of his movie. To the best of my knowledge, he didn't even have any speaking roles during the film: just during his 'highlight' episode of the show. (And even that was through Meowth...like Haunter did.) Long and short: Deoxys is a bit less fitting for Brawl in the first place, and his role in his movie was pretty much inferior to the amount of character development and screentime Lucario received. Lucario had a movie that developed his character and sold DVDs. I'm pretty sure nobody's going, "HE HAD A MOVIE HE'S IN BRAWL LULZ" We're just saying: that movie counts, and contributes to his popularity, and to how important he is to Nintendo in general. In a proper, open debate, this a major point and can't simply be swept under the rug.
As far as DP is concerned, if you rank by Pokemon that actually somewhat have storylines snippets involving their capture, Lucario is the #1 non-Legendary. Otherwise, you've got that balloon thing, Rotom, some Unown...Happini?
Yes, he could have said "**** Lucario." Duely noted. It's completely possible he DOESN'T care about Lucario being a popular fourth gen icon or his relative commercial success. But more than likely Sakurai would at least consider these things. Again, saying, "he could treat Lucario as he did Deoxys," is a moot point. At the very least, they're very different candidates. Venturing further than that, you could easily say Deoxys was simply a less likely candidate in the first place.
But we're not talking about remote possibilities Sakurai could've done. (Most) pro-Lucario fans aren't saying, "He WILL be in Brawl!" We're talking about probable events. And when you add all the facts (marketing, merchandising, fanbase, personality, icon-status,) and all the reliable assumptions (Sakurai -most definitely- knows he exists, Sakurai at the very least considers Nintendo's/developers feelings,) then the logical conclusion is pretty simple: Lucario's got some pretty ****ed good chances.