Ronike, let me run some numbers as to why shooting Jungle may not be the best idea. Assuming he IS in a mason group with Rockin(which I can easily believe), lets run the numbers.
Right now, we have two mafia, one SK, and 5 assorted townies. If we shoot Jungle(as stated above, this assumes he is a mason), we are down to 4 townies and 3 anti-town. If we lynch at that point, and lynch wrong, game is done for town as we no longer have majority. Let us look at some scenarios for night if we no-lynch or lynch correctly.
No-Lynch:We are left with, as above, 3 anti-town and 4 townies. Enter night. Here, one of thee things can happen. 1)maf or SK hit the other group, while one(inevitably) hits Rockin(mafia would not risk leaving a cleared mason alive). in this situation, at best, we have 2 maf vs. 3 town. This situation gives a chance, but probability is against it happening. 2)maf and SK BOTH target Rockin at night, and we only have one death. This leaves us with 3 town and 3 anti-town, and town loses. 3)maf and sk hit separate targets, both town, leaving 3 anti town and 2 town: in this case we don't even have majority over mafia alone, none the less mafia and killer.
Correct lynch: Now, this can be split into two categories. SK lynch and maf lynch. Let us take a look at both.
SK lynch:This is the only situation here in which we aren't leaving a day 4 to chance. If we lynched the SK, we would be left with 4 town and 2 maf going into night. A night kill(likely Rockin to prevent a clear), and we are left with 3 town to 2 maf, a winnable situation although absolutely no room for error. As I said, if Jungle is a mason this is the ONLY possibility that doesn't leave the next day to chance.
Mafia lynch:For this, simply see the scenarios I have listed above to know where I'm going. 1) With a lower chance of it happening, maf or sk hits the other, and for the sake of assumption the other hits Rockin. this leaves 3 town and 1 anti town Obviously high chances of winning at that point, but each side only has a 1 in 5 chance of hitting the other(unless intentionally going for the other side, in which case 1 in 4 due to excluding the at-that-point cleared Rockin), meaning we have an 80% chance this does not happen if one side tries to take out the clear. 2)Both parties hit Rockin. In this situation, we are left with 2 anti-town and 3 town. The main difference between this and an SK lynch, is that it relies on luck of both parties hitting the same target, and is not a team for the anti-town, so we wouldn't be able to read vote patterns or anything of the sort. Finally, 3) remaining maf and killer hit different targets. maf v sk v 2 town. Even if we lynch one of the killing roles, the other hits a town at night and game is over.
Now, why am I making an argument ASSUMING Jungle is mason? Quite simply the information that has been put to us so far. Rockin is competent enough to know if he were maf or an indy recruiter that putting THAT much force behind someone being town with only one vote on them makes them very likely targets for lynches AND night kills by opposing parties. Second of all, we only had one night kill N2. Rockin hadn't claimed yet, and sounded very much like an investigative role such as a cop. Marshy is a smart enough player he likely realized this and protected Rockin, which is why there was only one kill(at least, that's how I see it). The way the information from what has happened has fallen together, to me, is solidly supporting Rockin's claim to being a mason.
So, in terms of our shot and lynch, I'm not entirely sure yet. It is good that our deadline got extended, as I feel we definitely need some more time to discuss and follow through what information we have. Unfortunately, day 1 revolved around Karthik's inactivity, and day 2 around smashbot's theory, so we don't have a very large amount to work with.
The recruited masons losing their original role is not a very uncommon thing from what I've seen. As I said, if this is not the case, he should not say what he was before, but assuming he did lose his original abilities(which makes sense... If a cop were recruited as a mason and could still investigate, as long as there was one other mason they could communicate without ever revealing themselves etc. You give up your former ability for knowledge of fellow town members and the ability to talk without mafia seeing), it definitely would make sense for him to claim. I don't think this is necessarily a sign of an independent recruiter either.
