Ok, I merely wanted to know so I could tell if smashbot had made a lucky guess prior to having enough data, which would make this an even easier situation, or if that theory of his was(finally) broken down. So, now for the information I have that will put us in an extremely good situation. Until I realized how good a chance we had if I did this, I was going to hold off, but I feel this is a perfect situation for this.
I am the cop. Each night I can investigate one person to learn not just their alliance, but their exact role. Night one I investigated Jungle, due mainly to not having any solid suspicions and wanting to test spam's gut. The investigation must have gotten in after your mason action, as I got him as a mason on that investigation. If you need confirmation of me being the cop, I got a copy of the role descriptions, and will be able to post them to confirm they are what you received and verify myself.
This investigation is why I have been against any lynch/kill on Rockin/Jungle since the beginning of day 2. I knew that Rockin must be the other mason(confirmed today) when he stuck his neck out for Jungle, saying he knew he was town. At that point I began my opposition to any push to lynch or kill these two. So, as of now, Rockin and Jungle are cleared as masons, and being town aligned.
Night 2, unfortunately, I investigated Marshy. He is a good enough player I felt he would be one of the harder people to pick up as mafia if he had been. Obviously, the mafia felt the same threat from him as I did, and chose to kill him, so night 2 is a wasted investigation.
So, given this information, let us put together what we know/was claimed:
Our remaining players:
Macman: One shot vig planning to use his shot today.
Lombardi: Unconfirmed/unclaimed
Mentosman: Cop
Spam: Unconfirmed/unclaimed
Ronike: Unconfirmed/unclaimed
Yaya: Unconfirmed/unclaimed
Jungle: Confirmed mason
Rockin: Confirmed mason
Given this information, as I said before, we have four possible anti-town people. Also, as said before, if we assume we were right about a 3 mafia/1 serial killer for the anti-town roles, 3 of those four are our mafia. This gives us a 75% chance of hitting a killing role(50% mafia, 25% killer, 25% chance of hitting wrong) with Macman's shot, and if hit correctly, a 66% chance of hitting a killing role with a lynch. If we shoot wrong, we know the remaining 3 are killing roles and must simply manage to hit the SK to guarantee ourselves a win.
Now, knowing this, we must simply decide the best shot/lynch to use today. I would say my top suspects are Yaya(as Macman pointed out, has had some reason for suspicion throughout), and Ronike(has REALLY been pushing the independent recruiting role idea, despite the fact that it was highly unlikely following the two deaths on n1). I think discussion should focus around these four and who the best shot/lynch combo is so that we can ensure town victory.
And, why I was curious about Jungle's role, is that so far, smashbot's theory had been strangely accurate(every even# death so far has been a vanilla role, every odd number that was revealed before that mention of his role was a power role), despite some miscalculations due to not waiting until there was enough info to go on. If Jungle had been a power role prior to masoning, I would have been able to pin that theory as being somewhat accurate, with Ronike being the SK and two of the even numbers being the vanilla mafia.
Anyway, we need to discuss this and put ourselves as town on the same page for a shot/lynch combo that gives us the best chance of those four to hit two killing roles, as that or a town shot/lynch+sk shot/lynch guarantees our victory at this point.
