Official Metaknight Discussion

[Col. Stauffenberg]

EDIT: nvm, I can't read properly.

I can't name a single mid/low tier where I believe MK is even their worst match-up, since MK doesn't have a 0 to death CG, infinite, projectile, etc.

Isn't MK Peach's worst matchup by a good margin?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I find this useless.

6-4: Is what? Wins 6 games out of 10 verses 4 games out of 10. That just means 60% to 40%. That percentage is huge. For every 2 matches you win, your opponent should win 3. Best of 5, means you should lose. It just math my frend. In the Finals, thats a counter.
7-3: 70% to 30%? Thats insanely huge. Its more then double. In a best of 3 your opponent wins 2.33 games for every 1 you win. At this rate you cant even win a best of 3 unless your lucky. And forget about winning a best 5, this is hard counter, not just a counter.

Honestly, from a mathematical point of view, if skills is the largest determing factor, then the ratios for matchups should be very very close.

I love this post.

It's true , 6-4's are certainly winnable for the 4 but it's more likely the 6 is going to win, assuming equal skill of course.

3-7 is true as well, assuming equal skill.

Its 100-0 give me a link of a tournament where an IC player lost to Ganon

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kod-CvlUTcU

 

[Sorto]

You still used your fail math, use my formula instead. Also, you forget to take Stage CP into consideration which can change a MU ratio a lot (eg. MK on RC)

We're also assuming it to be one match with the ratio. Using your logic, b/c of the properties of exponets, the ratio will never reflect the chance to win a set. But yes, I would play those numbers all day. BTW Proban

People call the match up 45:55, I think that is the percent of winning the set! Not the percent of winning the match. I assumed that matchup ratio does take into accound stage selection and reflects the chance of winning an entire set, since particular matches can be very variable. I believe u misinterpreted my analysis. The exponents were used to reflect sets, not matches. Perhaps I wrote it down wrong when I presented the numbers, but 45:55 was used to reflect the entirety of one set (best of 3 or best 5).

Ratios can reflect the chance of winning a set. But look at this logic, most tournaments consist of mostly MKs. Every character is at a disadvantage to MK, aside from MK. Or atleast the current metagame considers that to be so. So MK is more likely to win, due to higher tournament turnout, as well as ratio advantage, expecially if we assume all players at top level to be almost even. Yet there are players that win consistently at higher levels with those disadvantaged characters. People win with characters that have 45:55 and even 40:60 matchups against MK, and they have done so consistently. If they are doing it consistently, then maybe instead of people saying those MKs are dumb and dont know the matchup, they should say, that matchup is closer. If ADHD can do what he does consistently, shouldn't people perhaps start to consider that match closer,maybe dead on even, or even in diddys favor? Look at how far ALLY has brought Snake, and yet MK still has the advantage, suposedly, why is that? ALLY outplaces over 95+% of the MKs out there in tournaments consistently, yet snake loses that matchup ratiowise?

People hate MK. Maybe its because he is simple and hurts lower tiered characters so badly. People have allowed him to be the best, b/c no matter how the people who play MK actually place, people have determined him to always be in the advantage. They hate him so much, that even when good players break through the barrier and show that matchups between him and another character may be even, ratio makers always give mk the advantage. 55-45 is a bigger advantage then people give it credit for. 55 is 22% higher then 45. Thats f**kin ridiculous.

 

[Ganonsburg]

Lolwut? Where'd he get his formula from. All he did was take something based off of .5 (MU ratios) in a base 1 system (multiplication), all I did was do it off of base 1 instead of base .5 to fit the system then fit it back into the standard base .5 we use to gauge MU ratios.



Most characters who are dominated by these characters have problems that would make them unviable whether or not MK is present. One main goal is to help characters like Gdubs and Peach who are viable, but are rare in tournament due to how badly they lose to Metaknight. These characters would be viable if MK weren't completely dominating the metagame, but these characters are dieing nearly soley due to Metaknight.

His is just taking the probabilities and saying Probability P of winning one game is .45 for the Diddy. Out of 100 games, Diddy would win 45 of them. The probability of winning one game vs MK is the same for every game. So, if the Diddy had to win five games, the .45 is multiplied by itself 5 times. That's the same as .45^5. It's part of the binomial probability formula.

The system is base 1. Its just written differently.

 

[Sorto]

His is just taking the probabilities and saying Probability P of winning one game is .45 for the Diddy. Out of 100 games, Diddy would win 45 of them. The probability of winning one game vs MK is the same for every game. So, if the Diddy had to win five games, the .45 is multiplied by itself 5 times. That's the same as .45^5. It's part of the binomial probability formula.

The system is base 1. Its just written differently.

HAHA... THANK GOD SOMEONE UNDERSTANDS MATH.
Yea, that other guy wasnt really making any sense to me.

1. I just have one quick issue, which I kept trying to stress, but every1 missed, I used 5, as 5 sets. I assumed 45:55 as the probability of winning a set in its entirety (not a match). So if diddy lost a match in the set, it would not matter, as 45:55 is the set ratio. Understand?

2. Btw do u get my issue with match-up ratios, it seems like you do? I know it would force them to be extremely close, but the way they are now is just so inflated. I mean it makes MK look almost unbeatable, just based on matchup inflation.

EDIT: Just wanted to make sure I said it, but thanks for the support Inui

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

HAHA... THANK GOD SOMEONE UNDERSTANDS MATH.
Yea, that other guy wasnt really making any sense to me.

1. I just have one quick issue, which I kept trying to stress, but every1 missed, I used 5, as 5 sets. I assumed 45:55 as the probability of winning a set in its entirety (not a match).

2. Btw do u get my issue with match-up ratios, it seems like you do? I know it would force them to be extremely close, but the way they are now is just so inflated. I mean it makes MK look unbeatable, just based on matchup inflation.

What if people assume sets rather than games? That would change the meaning of each ratio correct?

 

[Sorto]

What if people assume sets rather than games? That would change the meaning of each ratio correct?

For my formula, the change would be the difference between winning a set, verses winning a tourny.

My gripe with the match-up ratio making people is this.

They say the match is 55:45.
(a) Is that the ratio for an entire set (assuming CPs and such)?
(b) Or is that the ratio of only one particular match in the set?

If (a) is true, it is a more useful ratio, b/c, while it sounds simple, most CP stages are already thought out in advance.

if (b) is true, then I feel as if the makers of the ratio must feel that stages mean very little. Because in brawl, there is no 1 stage where you can give a fair matchup ratio for every single character. FD is diddy and IC domination stage. RC is MK domination stage. YI is good for olimar I am pretty sure and awkward for diddy. Smashville is very good for Snakes. Lylat is good for campers.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

For my formula, the change would be the difference between winning a set, verses winning a tourny.

My gripe with the match-up ratio making people is this.

They say the match is 55:45.
(a) Is that the ratio for an entire set (assuming CPs and such)?
(b) Or is that the ratio of only one particular match in the set?

If (a) is true, it is a more useful ratio, b/c, while it sounds simple, most CP stages are already thought out in advance.

if (b) is true, then I feel as if the makers of the ratio must feel that stages mean very little. Because in brawl, there is no 1 stage where you can give a fair matchup ratio for every single character. FD is diddy and IC domination stage. RC is MK domination stage. YI is good for olimar I am pretty sure and awkward for diddy. Smashville is very good for Snakes. Lylat is good for campers.

(a) sounds like a more reliable ratio overall, since everything is thought out in advance along with possible CP stages.

 

[Ganonsburg]

HAHA... THANK GOD SOMEONE UNDERSTANDS MATH.
Yea, that other guy wasnt really making any sense to me.

1. I just have one quick issue, which I kept trying to stress, but every1 missed, I used 5, as 5 sets. I assumed 45:55 as the probability of winning a set in its entirety (not a match).

2. Btw do u get my issue with match-up ratios, it seems like you do? I know it would force them to be extremely close, but the way they are now is just so inflated. I mean it makes MK look almost unbeatable, just based on matchup inflation.

EDIT: Just wanted to make sure I said it, but thanks for the support Inui

Ah, yeah. I'm not sure whether the various boards say that the ratios are for a set or for a match. But I see where you're coming from now. I think your view of the ratios works, except it means that the probability of winning a match changes depending on how many matches are in a set.

I liked your other post about the ratios and what it means in a set (60% means they win 3 matches in a set of 5, etc). That's a good way to think of it, one that most people don't seem to think of.

 

[Judo777]

People call the match up 45:55, I think that is the percent of winning the set! Not the percent of winning the match. I assumed that matchup ratio does take into accound stage selection and reflects the chance of winning an entire set, since particular matches can be very variable. I believe u misinterpreted my analysis. The exponents were used to reflect sets, not matches. Perhaps I wrote it down wrong when I presented the numbers, but 45:55 was used to reflect the entirety of one set (best of 3 or best 5).

Ratios can reflect the chance of winning a set. But look at this logic, most tournaments consist of mostly MKs. Every character is at a disadvantage to MK, aside from MK. Or atleast the current metagame considers that to be so. So MK is more likely to win, due to higher tournament turnout, as well as ratio advantage, expecially if we assume all players at top level to be almost even. Yet there are players that win consistently at higher levels with those disadvantaged characters. People win with characters that have 45:55 and even 40:60 matchups against MK, and they have done so consistently. If they are doing it consistently, then maybe instead of people saying those MKs are dumb and dont know the matchup, they should say, that matchup is closer. If ADHD can do what he does consistently, shouldn't people perhaps start to consider that match closer,maybe dead on even, or even in diddys favor? Look at how far ALLY has brought Snake, and yet MK still has the advantage, suposedly, why is that? ALLY outplaces over 95+% of the MKs out there in tournaments consistently, yet snake loses that matchup ratiowise?

People hate MK. Maybe its because he is simple and hurts lower tiered characters so badly. People have allowed him to be the best, b/c no matter how the people who play MK actually place, people have determined him to always be in the advantage. They hate him so much, that even when good players break through the barrier and show that matchups between him and another character may be even, ratio makers always give mk the advantage. 55-45 is a bigger advantage then people give it credit for. 55 is 22% higher then 45. Thats f**kin ridiculous.

No if one player say ADHD consistently beat MKs its NOT because the matchup is even. If the matchup were even Diddy kongs everywhere would be outplacing Mks because they would have the advantage or be even. The fact that there is (in this example) only one or two players that consistently outplace MK's points to the fact that those player in fact are just better than their competition.

 

[Chuee]

No if one player say ADHD consistently beat MKs its NOT because the matchup is even. If the matchup were even Diddy kongs everywhere would be outplacing Mks because they would have the advantage or be even. The fact that there is (in this example) only one or two players that consistently outplace MK's points to the fact that those player in fact are just better than their competition.

If ADHD says it's even it's most likely even.

 

[Dark.Pch]

People tend to forget no matter how good a player is, if they can't play a match up well or know it fully, then skills they have dont make the cut all the way. Then trying to point out if a match ups is even or w/e.

M2K and the rest of the Meta players out there cant Fight diddy.

 

[Sorto]

Ah, yeah. I'm not sure whether the various boards say that the ratios are for a set or for a match. But I see where you're coming from now. I think your view of the ratios works, except it means that the probability of winning a match changes depending on how many matches are in a set.

I liked your other post about the ratios and what it means in a set (60% means they win 3 matches in a set of 5, etc). That's a good way to think of it, one that most people don't seem to think of.

See and that issue is part of the problem Ganonsburg, whether it is for the set or the match. I am resending a post, cause its my feeling on it and I would wish to know yours.

My gripe with the match-up ratio making people is this.

They say the match is 55:45.
(a) Is that the ratio for an entire set (assuming CPs and such)?
(b) Or is that the ratio of only one particular match in the set?

If (a) is true, it is a more useful ratio, b/c, while it sounds simple, most CP stages are already thought out in advance.

if (b) is true, then I feel as if the makers of the ratio must feel that stages mean very little. Because in brawl, there is no 1 stage where you can give a fair matchup ratio for every single character. FD is diddy and IC domination stage. RC is MK domination stage. YI is good for olimar I am pretty sure and awkward for diddy. Smashville is very good for Snakes. Lylat is good for campers.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Also, I feel we have digressed a lil bit to much into match-ups, as this is more of an MK ban/anti ban discussion. But yea, if the matchup ratios were more true to the correct numbers, I feel the true MK pro-banners would lose a lot of fuel for there fire. Problem is, the true ratios like you said probably wouldnt go far past 60-40 for awful matches.

 

[rPSIvysaur]

HAHA... THANK GOD SOMEONE UNDERSTANDS MATH.
Yea, that other guy wasnt really making any sense to me.

Your system is wrong, but I'm not trying to convince you, I'm trying to make sure the community doesn't get the wrong idea of how to do it correctly. So you can continue to ignore mine, but I want to make sure people know how to do it correctly.

 

[Overswarm]

If ADHD says it's even it's most likely even.

M2K says Diddy counters Metaknight.

ADHD says MK vs. Diddy is even.

ADHD is the best Diddy. M2K is the best Metaknight

*head explodes*

 

[Overswarm]

People tend to forget no matter how good a player is, if they can't play a match up well or know it fully, then skills they have dont make the cut all the way. Then trying to point out if a match ups is even or w/e.

M2K and the rest of the Meta players out there cant Fight diddy.

True dat. This past weekend Alpha Zealot and I taught M2K what an instant throw was and how to do it. We also told him if you press "z" in the air you can catch items without air dodging, and you can hit "a" on the ground to catch bananas thrown at you. He was quite surprised. I'm sure it'll help his game.

 

[Chuee]

How do you know they can't fight Diddy? Just because they lose to ADHD doesn't mean they don't know how to fight diddy.

 

[Sorto]

People tend to forget no matter how good a player is, if they can't play a match up well or know it fully, then skills they have dont make the cut all the way. Then trying to point out if a match ups is even or w/e.

M2K and the rest of the Meta players out there cant Fight diddy.

Yea, no one can fight diddy rite? No one knows the matchup at all. Thats why ADHD wins. There is no possiblity, at all, that its in Diddys advantage rite? Or why cant it be an even matchup. What am I saying, no one can beat MK, he is just too good of a character hahahah (sarcasm).

Thats part of the problem, noone even gives it a chance. Everyones mentality is instantly, no one can have an advantage over MK, its impossible. Thats a stupid mentality and it stops things from ever changing.

Not to long ago every1 thought the world was flat. But as you now know, they were wrong.

Rite now, ADHD can beat every single MK out there, that he has faced. You can stick to the idea that MK is unstoppable. But while you sit there and wine and find excuses, a good player is actually out there winning and proving those stupid theories wrong. F**k the flat world, ADHD is the next Pythagoras.

 

[Dekar173]

True dat. This past weekend Alpha Zealot and I taught M2K what an instant throw was and how to do it. We also told him if you press "z" in the air you can catch items without air dodging, and you can hit "a" on the ground to catch bananas thrown at you. He was quite surprised. I'm sure it'll help his game.

I told him that **** at pound all weekend and he just sat there saying he couldn't learn the match-up in X amount of time.

Diddy counters M2K, not MK

@Chuee- do you know what "instant throwing" is ???

 

[Chuee]

I told him that **** at pound all weekend and he just sat there saying he couldn't learn the match-up in X amount of time.

Diddy counters M2K, not MK

@Chuee- do you know what "instant throwing" is ???

ADHD's beaten every other mk hes fought. I guess diddy counters all of them too huh?
No I don't think I know what instant throwing is, tell me.

 

[Dark.Pch]

True dat. This past weekend Alpha Zealot and I taught M2K what an instant throw was and how to do it. We also told him if you press "z" in the air you can catch items without air dodging, and you can hit "a" on the ground to catch bananas thrown at you. He was quite surprised. I'm sure it'll help his game.

If this is not some joke then OMG M2K...............

Yea, no one can fight diddy rite? No one knows the matchup at all. Thats why ADHD wins. There is no possiblity, at all, that its in Diddys advantage rite? Or why cant it be an even matchup. What am I saying, no one can beat MK, he is just too good of a character hahahah (sarcasm).

Thats part of the problem, noone even gives it a chance. Everyones mentality is instantly, no one can have an advantage over MK, its impossible. Thats a stupid mentality and it stops things from ever changing.

Not to long ago every1 thought the world was flat. But as you now know, they were wrong.

Rite now, ADHD can beat every single MK out there, that he has faced. You can stick to the idea that MK is unstoppable. But while you sit there and wine and find excuses, a good player is actually out there winning.

Someone is a lil off key here. But before I even say anything, you must think Diddy beats meta?

 

[Dekar173]

No I don't think I know what instant throwing is, tell me.

It's a universal AT that the Diddy/TL boards have been keeping hush hush for over a year that allows ANY character (hence the term universal AT) to catch > throw any item within a few frames while in the air.

You may say to me "but that doesn't matter!"

It really, really does. Especially when some people don't even know it exists, then go up against a Diddy player in tourney.

 

[Sorto]

If this is not some joke then OMG M2K...............



Someone is a lil off key here. But before I even say anything, you must think Diddy beats meta?

It stands to reason that there is indeed a possibility of Diddy winning that matchup But ATM, I am not sure. I do believe it is 50-50 dead on even atleast tho.

 

[Chuee]

No, he thinks it's 55-45 meta.
@Dekar: Isn't that a jump canceled item throw?

 

[Sorto]

It's a universal AT that the Diddy/TL boards have been keeping hush hush for over a year that allows ANY character (hence the term universal AT) to catch > throw any item within a few frames while in the air.

You may say to me "but that doesn't matter!"

It really, really does. Especially when some people don't even know it exists, then go up against a Diddy player in tourney.

Its not that HUSH HUSH, I knew about it while I still played ICs. Z catch to c stick throw. Right?

 

[Hylian]

It's a universal AT that the Diddy/TL boards have been keeping hush hush for over a year that allows ANY character (hence the term universal AT) to catch > throw any item within a few frames while in the air.

You may say to me "but that doesn't matter!"

It really, really does. Especially when some people don't even know it exists, then go up against a Diddy player in tourney.

Hush hush? It's been posted about all over the boards lol and it's over a year old, I can find videos of me instant throwing from 2008 I think.

Its not that HUSH HUSH, I knew about it while I still played ICs. Z catch to c stick throw. Right?

*facepalm*

 

[Sorto]

Hush hush? It's been posted about all over the boards lol and it's over a year old, I can find videos of me instant throwing from 2008 I think.



*facepalm*

why the face palm?

 

[rPSIvysaur]

Instant throwing is easy, it's a basic AT that I thought everyone knew >.>

@Sorto: @_@, because you didn't phrase it very well at all, or you have it wrong.

 

[Dekar173]

lol hylian over a year would be 2008 silly scrub

plus, you've NEVER done it in ANY of the MMs/friendlies we've had, neither has over 95% of the people I've played oos. Anyone who HAS done it, I TAUGHT it to.



Airdodge canceled item throw-

airdodge (this catches the item, as we all know) > c-stick (VERY fast, within the first few frames of the airdodge, it cancels the airdodge directly into an item throw)

yes, VERY easy, except for when people don't even know how to do it lmfao

 

[GunmasterLombardi]

His is just taking the probabilities and saying Probability P of winning one game is .45 for the Diddy. Out of 100 games, Diddy would win 45 of them. The probability of winning one game vs MK is the same for every game. So, if the Diddy had to win five games, the .45 is multiplied by itself 5 times. That's the same as .45^5. It's part of the binomial probability formula.

The system is base 1. Its just written differently.

I hate this whole "0ut of 100 matches _ would win _"

Do you honestly think out of 100 matches Ganon would even win one against Falco in high level play?

 

[Chuee]

So you're saying that if any of these mks would've used that, they would've beaten ADHD?

 

[Flayl]

It's not that well hidden, you can just google it...

Granted that's if you know what the tech's name is, but if you really want to know how diddy's throwing stuff so fast it's one of the first terms to go through your mind.

 

[rPSIvysaur]

I hate this whole "0ut of 100 matches _ would win _"

Do you honestly think out of 100 matches Ganon would even win one against Falco in high level play?

QFT

Also, MU ratios aren't really ratios, there just general guidlines of how the MU looks. We generally consider 55:45 to be an even MU.

 

[Dark.Pch]

It stands to reason that there is indeed a possibility of Diddy winning that matchup But ATM, I am not sure. I do believe it is 50-50 dead on even atleast tho.

Ok.

Now as I was saying before, let M2K and the other top metas figure out how to fight diddy and not get annoyed at the match up, then we can see how the match up ratio really goes.

 

[Sorto]

I hate this whole "0ut of 100 matches _ would win _"

Do you honestly think out of 100 matches Ganon would even win one against Falco in high level play?

Its just for math purpose tho, to better represent Odds and such. It was to prove how bad a 45:55 matchup really is in my examples

 

[Ganonsburg]

Its just for math purpose tho, to better represent Odds and such. It was to prove how bad a 45:55 matchup really is in my examples

This. Mathematically, it's easiest to word it as such. But when you look back a few pages, you see that I said that I see MUs as a relative view of the match-up.

And it's not like anyone has given a definition of MUs that have been generally accepted. As Sorto and I were saying, is it per match or per set? What should it be?

And, if different boards have different meanings behind MUs, can we even compare one board's ratios to anothers?

This alone is probably a reason not to use MUs in a discussion for MK's brokeness, in addition to the fact that it's mostly opinions.

 

[Sorto]

Ok.

Now as I was saying before, let M2K and the other top metas figure out how to fight diddy and not get annoyed at the match up, then we can see how the match up ratio really goes.

Thats fair. In a future metagame it may be different. Maybe diddy will learn more tricks. Maybe MK will. Right now, its considered in MKs advantage, even tho ADHDs Diddy is f**kin up every single MK he comes up against. Thats sorta stupid. When M2K wins tournies and matchs against people, its because his character has the advantage. When ADHD does it, its because no one knows how to play against him correctly. Sounds a little biased to me. Ratios can always change. Current results show diddy can hold his own against MK at top levels, may even have the advantage, since no one can actually keep up with ADHD. But those are disregarded, because he doesnt have an army of followers.

 

[MKOwnage]

I just think we should wait and see how the next few months play out. If MK continues to **** tourneys. Then ban is really a good option. (Coming from an MK main.)

 

[etecoon]

I just think we should wait and see how the next few months play out. If MK continues to **** tourneys. Then ban is really a good option. (Coming from an MK main.)

there is no reason what-so-ever to believe that MK is suddenly going to become less dominant than he has been. the main question is simply whether his domination thus far is acceptable or if he takes it too far

 

[Sosuke]

True dat. This past weekend Alpha Zealot and I taught M2K what an instant throw was and how to do it. We also told him if you press "z" in the air you can catch items without air dodging, and you can hit "a" on the ground to catch bananas thrown at you. He was quite surprised. I'm sure it'll help his game.

He's learning things like that just now?

It's a universal AT that the Diddy/TL boards have been keeping hush hush for over a year that allows ANY character (hence the term universal AT) to catch > throw any item within a few frames while in the air.

TL boards haven't been keeping this secret. It's been in the AT thread for a while now.

I thought everyone knew about this.