Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[DarthEnderX]

Zero chance this happens in my view, it would be like cutting Cloud for Clive.

No offense, but Joker isn't nearly as iconic as Cloud.

In fact, Joker basically WAS the Clive at the time he joined Smash. He was just...the protagonist of the most recent game.

 

[Kirbeh]

So a good chunk of people are pretty sure that Terry gets cut? Am I crazy for thinking he'd be one of the few third parties that could make base game?

I'm of the belief that half, if not a bit over half would return through DLC (if at all.)

I honestly think Sonic, Bayo, Pac, Rock, Ryu, Ken, Terry and the Belmonts (if Konami is still onboard by then) would be our base third parties.

Losing Snake again while keeping the Belmonts sounds a bit strange. But I think MGS as DLC would be lucrative. Same goes for Joker/Persona.

I don't see SE, MS or Disney being base.

I forgot Kazuya. I think he's more likely to be DLC again, in part for being a hassle to develop/balance and again because with Tekken being as popular as it is, people will pay for it.

 

[StormC]

No offense, but Joker isn't nearly as iconic as Cloud.

In fact, Joker basically WAS the Clive at the time he joined Smash. He was just...the protagonist of the most recent game.

Persona 5 was a huge success that pushed the Persona series into the mainstream POV in a way none of the previous titles came close to.

Final Fantasy 16 is one of the worst selling console FF games of the last several decades. It's not really comparable.

Either way, cutting a very popular character for a new flavor-of-the-week is nonsensical and not really how Smash has ever functioned. This perception is born out of a misunderstanding that Mewtwo was cut for Lucario in Brawl.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Yeah, I don't think Terry is getting cut. SNK doesn't seem to be hard to work with and their involvement in Smash has helped in getting them more exposure to other fans.

As a matter of fact, being in Smash has benefitted companies so much that it's kind of hard imagine them not wanting to be apart of it again. And I think Sakurai even said that he wants to support as many Japanese companies as he can (though he clearly supports non-Japanese companies too).

 

[SPEN18]

So I have yet to see any remotely substantial argument against the #1 reason Joker and Terry would actually be on the chopping block...that is, the fact that they're simply not among the most important to keep out of the third parties. Without being able to argue that they'd actually take priority over any of the other third parties, the argument for them staying is either (1) the same as the argument for all or nearly all of the third parties staying, which is not a great one, or (2) the argument that very many third parties will not return due to licensing issues, making it more likely that characters with easy licensing would come back.

 

[Nabbitfan730]

I say characters like Hero, Sora, Sephiroth are most likely to get the cut in terms of third-party.

Maybe Mega-Man or Kazuya as well.

 

[fogbadge]

I say characters like Hero, Sora, Sephiroth are most likely to get the cut in terms of third-party.

Maybe Mega-Man or Kazuya as well.

why megaman?

 

[HyperSomari64]

why megaman?

Maybe because X is more iconic? or the fact that his design is the least cartoony of all the Scrimblos in the game. Both of which are incorrect btw.

 

[Perkilator]

3rd party veterans I can see having a higher chance of staying:

• Sonic
• Mega Man
• PAC-MAN
• Ryu
• Terry

 

[Sucumbio]

Megaman is fine lol no to Kazuya unless bamco stay as developers ...

Hero Sephiroth Sora so square square square adjacent you think squares ONLY safe rep is cloud? Hmmm m.. ok. (I dont even think cloud is off limits I think square is gonna square and f something up). But Sora yeah that's Disneyland I think he returns honestly.

 

[dream1ng]

I cant imagine Sora getting cut entirely because we know how popular of a request he was to be in smash, i think he's more likely to return than a lot of people imagine.

At least for the next smash anyway.

Sora may be the only third-party I think people are actually underrating in terms of odds of coming back. Well, maybe Snake too, but Sora more so.

I agree, I think between how much the character likely sells/can sell, how prominent his series is, and how popular he is/for the sake of the fans (I mean, he's the ballot winner) Sora is actually a lot less likely to be cut than a lot make him out to be.

Of course thanks to Disney and Square, it's not like you can consider him anything close to safe, but the main argument of him being difficult to acquire shouldn't hold nearly as much weight as people give it considering the hard part has already been accomplished and there's a Disney/Square approved rendition of the character already in Smash.

I say characters like Hero, Sora, Sephiroth are most likely to get the cut in terms of third-party.

Maybe Mega-Man or Kazuya as well.

Care to expound?

Also, if Capcom is there, so to will Mega Man, I have to imagine.

So I have yet to see any remotely substantial argument against the #1 reason Joker and Terry would actually be on the chopping block...that is, the fact that they're simply not among the most important to keep out of the third parties. Without being able to argue that they'd actually take priority over any of the other third parties, the argument for them staying is either (1) the same as the argument for all or nearly all of the third parties staying, which is not a great one, or (2) the argument that very many third parties will not return due to licensing issues, making it more likely that characters with easy licensing would come back.

Agreed, almost all the arguments I see come from the perspective of the third-party. i.e. the company would still be amenable, the character is prolific, etc. Which is important, of course, but only one of the two sides involved in this.

Not a lot of voicing the Nintendo side, which is that Nintendo wouldn't be against the third-party returning, but just has prioritized other veterans and other newcomers to the point the third-party never moved from "in consideration" (which I figure all the third-party vets will probably be) to active re-negotiation and development.

If you're just looking at the side of the third-party, none seem likely to be cut. All of them have merit, and there's no reason to believe the company wouldn't still be on board. It's like saying a candidate has moveset potential. Yeah, but they basically all do.

And it's not that any specific third-party seems much likelier to get the axe than the rest (even, imo, Sephiroth), but if and when the roster rebuilds, it can be assumed some third-parties fail to return. So the perspective of just one side isn't enough.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Sora may be the only third-party I think people are actually underrating in terms of odds of coming back. Well, maybe Snake too, but Sora more so.

I agree, I think between how much the character likely sells/can sell, how prominent his series is, and how popular he is/for the sake of the fans (I mean, he's the ballot winner) Sora is actually a lot less likely to be cut than a lot make him out to be.

Of course thanks to Disney and Square, it's not like you can consider him anything close to safe, but the main argument of him being difficult to acquire shouldn't hold nearly as much weight as people give it considering the hard part has already been accomplished and there's a Disney/Square approved rendition of the character already in Smash.

Also it helps that Nintendo and Disney DO frequently collab together so they already have the connections to get him again if needed.

 

[Perkilator]

I just started playing the Ace Attorney Trilogy on Switch and bought a two-pack featuring FE Engage and Metroid Prime Remastered that was $69.

So clearly, this is an appropriate time to discuss a Metroid newcomer, Alear and Phoenix Wright

 

[Opossum]

My take on Sora is this.

Even in the case of heavy cuts, I think they'd try to get him back. It's whether they'd succeed that's up in the air.

 

[SPEN18]

Agreed, almost all the arguments I see come from the perspective of the third-party. i.e. the company would still be amenable, the character is prolific, etc. Which is important, of course, but only one of the two sides involved in this.

I think another part of it is that people who don't want cuts in general are less likely to argue from the viewpoint of comparing characters' priorities to one another. That is, they don't want their argument in favor of one character to then in turn make it seem more likely that someone else gets cut, so it just turns into "X has a lot of merit" versus "X compares favorably to Y,Z,W, so if somebody is getting cut then it probably won't be X."

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Something I could generally see is that many of the third party companies stay, but there might be shifts in what characters are being used. A loss of a Belmont or two with Bomberman and/or a Bill Rizer in their place. A Terry perhaps not being present, but a Haohmaru getting a showcase.

 

[Speed Weed]

Something I could generally see is that many of the third party companies stay, but there might be shifts in what characters are being used. A loss of a Belmont or two with Bomberman and/or a Bill Rizer in their place. A Terry perhaps not being present, but a Haohmaru getting a showcase.

The problem is a lot of the time that'd just result in characters being swapped out for other, less iconic characters for no reason other than to be different. Why would you replace the Belmonts with Bill Rizer, from a significantly smaller series? Why would you replace Terry with Haohmaru, a character who, although popular, is much less emblematic of the company's history?

 

[fogbadge]

The problem is a lot of the time that'd just result in characters being swapped out for other, less iconic characters for no reason other than to be different. Why would you replace the Belmonts with Bill Rizer, from a significantly smaller series? Why would you replace Terry with Haohmaru, a character who, although popular, is much less emblematic of the company's history?

bomberman it is then

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

The problem is a lot of the time that'd just result in characters being swapped out for other, less iconic characters for no reason other than to be different. Why would you replace the Belmonts with Bill Rizer, from a significantly smaller series? Why would you replace Terry with Haohmaru, a character who, although popular, is much less emblematic of the company's history?

Part of this whole thing may come down to differing priorities by the Smash team and/or contrasting ideas for characters now vs what they had several years ago. If Sakurai and company can see value in unique gameplay with a Terra, Tidus, or Vivi then losing a Cloud or Sephiroth could be a possibility even with their more iconic status. Moreover all it takes is adding majorly popular characters with other companies and Nintendo itself (adding Leon/Jill from Resident Evil or a Raiden from MGS) to effectively still market Smash regardless of the lesser known characters in it. Even if a Lloyd Irving is less famous than a Kazuya, when you can also advertise a 2B alongside them; any loss in status becomes negligible.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I just started playing the Ace Attorney Trilogy on Switch and bought a two-pack featuring FE Engage and Metroid Prime Remastered that was $69.

So clearly, this is an appropriate time to discuss a Metroid newcomer, Alear and Phoenix Wright

My one weird suggestion for Phoenix is that i think the usual stage idea people have for him "The courtroom" is a bit too boring.

But the Old bailey courtroom from The great Ace Attorney? That would be cooler,of course that only works if Ryunosuke is somewhere here.

 

[RileyXY1]

I think that all the Square Enix reps are getting cut unless they do "Everyone is Here" again, which I only think will happen if they're going the Ultimate port route. I think that "Everyone is Here" was the only reason why Cloud even got in the base game of Ultimate to begin with, and if they weren't going that route I think that Cloud would have been cut and made DLC again. Typically for crossovers Square Enix content has typically only been added in DLC. And this is true for other games too, such as Noctis's appearance in Tekken 7 and 2B's appearance in Soul Calibur 6.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I think that all the Square Enix reps are getting cut unless they do "Everyone is Here" again, which I only think will happen if they're going the Ultimate port route. I think that "Everyone is Here" was the only reason why Cloud even got in the base game of Ultimate to begin with, and if they weren't going that route I think that Cloud would have been cut and made DLC again. Typically for crossovers Square Enix content has typically only been added in DLC. And this is true for other games too, such as Noctis's appearance in Tekken 7 and 2B's appearance in Soul Calibur 6.

Im sure Dragon quest can come back, the only real hurdle for getting them in is the music, and the guy who owned the music died a while back, dunno who owns the songs now but i'm sure it wont be as hard to get those back in.

Also im not sure how different the game division of Square and the manga division of Square operate but the Super robot wars games have put a couple manga that Square put out in their rosters. So Bandai Namco and Square have the well made business connections to keep crossing over.

 

[chocolatejr9]

I just started playing the Ace Attorney Trilogy on Switch and bought a two-pack featuring FE Engage and Metroid Prime Remastered that was $69.

So clearly, this is an appropriate time to discuss a Metroid newcomer, Alear and Phoenix Wright

I mean, I started playing Ni No Kuni 2 some odd days ago. Does that mean we can talk Ni No Kuni in Smash? Because if so, I kinda want Roland to be playable...

 

[dream1ng]

The problem is a lot of the time that'd just result in characters being swapped out for other, less iconic characters for no reason other than to be different. Why would you replace the Belmonts with Bill Rizer, from a significantly smaller series? Why would you replace Terry with Haohmaru, a character who, although popular, is much less emblematic of the company's history?

I do think turnaround will happen eventually though, just because companies can't expand indefinitely because the roster can't expand indefinitely.

Let's say Smash 6 adds Dante and Monster Hunter, and also keeps Mega Man, Ryu and Ken. That would be high with a roster that starts over, and therefore shrinks, but it's plausible. Then in the future, what if they want to add Jill, but the roster itself doesn't change size too much? Well maybe that's possible. But what if they want to then add Chun Li? Leon? Phoenix? Zero? Do they go "sorry, barring a much bigger roster, Capcom is permanently full"?

I think eventually a newcomer gets priority and a veteran doesn't, meaning, from a practical perspective, one gets swapped out.

There are some companies this would be less of a worry for, but then there are others, like Capcom, who, at some point down the line (though not for a while), will probably encounter a dilemma like this.

I think that all the Square Enix reps are getting cut unless they do "Everyone is Here" again, which I only think will happen if they're going the Ultimate port route. I think that "Everyone is Here" was the only reason why Cloud even got in the base game of Ultimate to begin with, and if they weren't going that route I think that Cloud would have been cut and made DLC again. Typically for crossovers Square Enix content has typically only been added in DLC. And this is true for other games too, such as Noctis's appearance in Tekken 7 and 2B's appearance in Soul Calibur 6.

Do you mean they won't return, or do you mean they'll be DLC? Because cut generally means they won't be playable at all unless you specify "cut from base" or something.

Because unless Square gets bought out (by Sony, other buyers would probably still let the characters be in Smash), I really don't see the entire company leaving. They have some of Smash's most popular characters.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I mean, I started playing Ni No Kuni 2 some odd days ago. Does that mean we can talk Ni No Kuni in Smash? Because if so, I kinda want Roland to be playable...

He WOULD be kinda cool though.

 

[dream1ng]

I mean, I started playing Ni No Kuni 2 some odd days ago. Does that mean we can talk Ni No Kuni in Smash? Because if so, I kinda want Roland to be playable...

It will be nice to hopefully see Layton return to Smash discussion after having originally peaked too early to endure until the era a character like him was a more plausible addition. Of course this is somewhat contingent on Level-5 not ****ing up his comeback.

Sorry, that's the closest to Ni No Kuni I have anything to contribute on.

 

[RileyXY1]

Do you mean they won't return, or do you mean they'll be DLC? Because cut generally means they won't be playable at all unless you specify "cut from base" or something.

Because unless Square gets bought out (by Sony, other buyers would probably still let the characters be in Smash), I really don't see the entire company leaving. They have some of Smash's most popular characters.

I specifically mean them being DLC and cut from base. Square Enix characters have only been added as DLC, and that's true for other games. And I think that it took a lot of effort to even have Cloud in the base roster, and that Everyone is Here is the only reason why he was.

 

[dream1ng]

I specifically mean them being DLC and cut from base. Square Enix characters have only been added as DLC, and that's true for other games. And I think that it took a lot of effort to even have Cloud in the base roster, and that Everyone is Here is the only reason why he was.

Well that I can more or less agree with. Though I can see Cloud still being base if Sephiroth is still DLC, because, like with Ultimate, then Square still gets their FF7 DLC character/pack.

Though I hope they do whatever they do in a way that we can actually get a FF7 (or other FF) AT this time.

 

[RileyXY1]

Well that I can more or less agree with. Though I can see Cloud still being base if Sephiroth is still DLC, because, like with Ultimate, then Square still gets their FF7 DLC character/pack.

Though I hope they do whatever they do in a way that we can actually get a FF7 (or other FF) AT this time.

I'm not sure of that. I don't think that any Square Enix rep will be on the base roster unless they do another "Everyone is Here" situation, aka they choose to go the route of porting Ultimate. And this is true for most third parties, as they're the most on the chopping block for obvious reasons.

 

[dream1ng]

I'm not sure of that. I don't think that any Square Enix rep will be on the base roster unless they do another "Everyone is Here" situation, aka they choose to go the route of porting Ultimate. And this is true for most third parties, as they're the most on the chopping block for obvious reasons.

Maybe Square will insist on Cloud being DLC, but they were appeased last time by whatever Nintendo did to assuage them. Including potentially giving them another character so they could still have their DLC pack. Perhaps they will be satisfied by that status quo.

 

[Wonder Smash]

The problem is a lot of the time that'd just result in characters being swapped out for other, less iconic characters for no reason other than to be different. Why would you replace the Belmonts with Bill Rizer, from a significantly smaller series? Why would you replace Terry with Haohmaru, a character who, although popular, is much less emblematic of the company's history?

While I'm not saying I support the swapping, Contra is both a big name in gaming and a big Konami series in its own right just like Castlevania. They're pretty much like siblings, So I don't think the issue would be that Contra is the "smaller" series.

However, I do think the issue would be that Castlevania was one of the most requested series for Smash that nothing can really take its place. Nothing can make up for the absence of a popular character or series.

As for Terry, yeah, he's pretty much the mascot of SNK. There's no reason to replace him when they can just add another character.

 

[Ivander]

I do think turnaround will happen eventually though, just because companies can't expand indefinitely because the roster can't expand indefinitely.

That'll probably depend on the technology we get during the time from the next Smash Bros. to the Smash Bros. after that, between technology rapidly advancing and with AI joining in the mix and helping with development. Obviously, 3rd Party contracts will still be a thing, but depending on how much technology advances from now, we could see big advances in regards to roster development for fighting games.

 

[Speed Weed]

I do think turnaround will happen eventually though, just because companies can't expand indefinitely because the roster can't expand indefinitely.

Let's say Smash 6 adds Dante and Monster Hunter, and also keeps Mega Man, Ryu and Ken. That would be high with a roster that starts over, and therefore shrinks, but it's plausible. Then in the future, what if they want to add Jill, but the roster itself doesn't change size too much? Well maybe that's possible. But what if they want to then add Chun Li? Leon? Phoenix? Zero? Do they go "sorry, barring a much bigger roster, Capcom is permanently full"?

I think eventually a newcomer gets priority and a veteran doesn't, meaning, from a practical perspective, one gets swapped out.

There are some companies this would be less of a worry for, but then there are others, like Capcom, who, at some point down the line (though not for a while), will probably encounter a dilemma like this.

Fair. I think it was moreso the specific cited examples that I disagreed with

 

[ZephyrZ]

...Does it even make sense for Square Enix to only want their characters as DLC? Would they not get royalties just for having them on base roster?

I mean, they theory spun off because of speculation that Hero was planned for base but SE forced Nintendo to move them to DLC. But couldn't that just have easily have been caused by something like time constraints?

And is it really fair to say doesn't count just because he doesn't fit the narrative being pushed?

I dunno. Maybe I'm missing something here.

 

[FazDude]

And is it really fair to say doesn't count just because he doesn't fit the narrative being pushed?

Cloud was Smash 4 DLC, so I think it's fair to say he counts even in spite of EIH.

 

[Oracle Link]

You know what would be cool? an organized Make you own smash concept program were you can think up Stages, Characters, Items adventure Mode etc. and have it al converted into a word document!

 

[ZephyrZ]

Cloud was Smash 4 DLC, so I think it's fair to say he counts even in spite of EIH.

But we're saying he can't come back in base roster, when there's already a precedent that he can. Maybe if we were talking solely about newcomers the precedent would hold up.

Plus we don't have any reason to believe that the devs even tried to get him into base roster for 4.

But all that aside I just don't understand why executives as SE would be like "DLC only, take it or leave it". It seems so...arbitrary. This feels to me a bit like fans just noticing a pattern and insisting it must be a rule when it's just something that happened to turn out that way.

And most 3rd party newcomers have been introduced through DLC at this point anyway, and it just so happens that SE got the largest amount of them.

 

[FazDude]

But we're saying he can't come back in base roster, when there's already a precedent that he can. Maybe if we were talking solely about newcomers the precedent would hold up.

Plus we don't have any reason to believe that the devs even tried to get him into base roster for 4.

But all that aside I just don't understand why executives as SE would be like "DLC only, take it or leave it". It seems so...arbitrary. This feels to me a bit like fans just noticing a pattern and insisting it must be a rule when it's just something that happened to turn out that way.

And most 3rd party newcomers have been introduced through DLC at this point anyway, and it just so happens that SE got the largest amount of them.

Sorry for misinterpreting - I feel like SE would be willing to play ball for returning fighters in the next Smash, but that's ultimately Nintendo's call.

Making "rules" out of patterns is the Smash community's bread and butter, it seems.

 

[DarthEnderX]

...Does it even make sense for Square Enix to only want their characters as DLC? Would they not get royalties just for having them on base roster?

Depends what their deal is with Nintendo. If Nintendo agreed to pay royalties, then yes. If Nintendo just agreed to a one-time stack of cash, then no.

 

[RileyXY1]

So I have yet to see any remotely substantial argument against the #1 reason Joker and Terry would actually be on the chopping block...that is, the fact that they're simply not among the most important to keep out of the third parties. Without being able to argue that they'd actually take priority over any of the other third parties, the argument for them staying is either (1) the same as the argument for all or nearly all of the third parties staying, which is not a great one, or (2) the argument that very many third parties will not return due to licensing issues, making it more likely that characters with easy licensing would come back.

Especially considering that the next game might have a much smaller roster than Ultimate.