Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Swamp Sensei]

So, how likely do you think it is that Persona sticks around?

 

[Noipoi]

So, how likely do you think it is that Persona sticks around?

Joker is 100% staying around for the next game.

 

[osby]

So, how likely do you think it is that Persona sticks around?

ATLUS loves to collaborate with any willing video game under the sun and Persona is only getting bigger and bigger.

I'd be surprised if we don't see any Persona content in the next game.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I just hope that they update Joker and his stage to include the Phantom thieves who were introduced to the series after his Smash inclusion.

 

[SPEN18]

On the other hand, I just don't really see Joker being very high up on the list of existing third parties
He's def the kind of character we probably wouldn't have ever gotten without DLC being a thing

 

[dream1ng]

In terms of third-party priority, I would imagine Joker's in the back half, not the front half. So it depends how thorough the cuts are.

And until and unless something changes within the respective company, I don't think they'd be unable to reacquire any of the third-parties, so I don't see ease of acquisition being a particularly salient factor.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Is Boris Vallejo still alive to paint the box art of Smash 6?

Sadly, no. You'll have to ask an AI to paint it for you.

 

[Sucumbio]

He's still around he's 82 and his wife and collaborator Julie Bell is also alive and kicking.

For Joker, yeah I think he'll be back.

 

[Perkilator]

He's still around he's 82 and his wife and collaborator Julie Bell is also alive and kicking.

Sucumbio what the **** are you talking about

 

[FazDude]

So, how likely do you think it is that Persona sticks around?

I wouldn’t be too surprised if Joker gets axed for the P6 protag (assuming it’s out/announced by the next Smash, but we’ll definitely have Persona representation either way.

 

[dream1ng]

To the people quite sure Joker (or at least Persona) is sticking around on the roster, how many third-parties do you imagine we're going to lose?

 

[Perkilator]

To the people quite sure Joker (or at least Persona) is sticking around on the roster, how many third-parties do you imagine we're going to lose?

That honestly depends but at the very least, I can see Sonic, Mega Man, PAC-MAN and Street Fighter sticking around.

 

[Sucumbio]

Sucumbio what the **** are you talking about
View attachment 379028

Lol what he was asking if Boris Vallejo is still alive. He is! He's 82. He may be old but but he could still do the artwork, he did some collaboration just last year actually which I won't link here bc nsfw.

 

[Perkilator]

Is Boris Vallejo still alive to paint the box art of Smash 6?

Wha...what does Boris Vallejo have do to with Smash and why would Nintendo hire him of all people to do the box art?!

 

[Sucumbio]

To the people quite sure Joker (or at least Persona) is sticking around on the roster, how many third-parties do you imagine we're going to lose?

Very few, actually. I think if anything it'll be the newcomers who survive moreso than the ones brought back to fulfill EiH. Snake is the only 3rd party I'm skeptical about ATM. But obviously this could all change, it's still way too early to predict, I just have a feeling the priority will be to keep ultimate newcomers, with dlc characters being in base this time around.

 

[DarthEnderX]

He's still around he's 82 and his wife and collaborator Julie Bell is also alive and kicking.

Wait, he IS. I could have SWORN he had died...hmm.

To the people quite sure Joker (or at least Persona) is sticking around on the roster, how many third-parties do you imagine we're going to lose?

None.

Wha...what does Boris Vallejo have do to with Smash and why would Nintendo hire him of all people to do the box art?!

Because Boris Vallejo cover art is, without exception, rad as ****.

 

[StormC]

I wouldn’t be too surprised if Joker gets axed for the P6 protag (assuming it’s out/announced by the next Smash, but we’ll definitely have Persona representation either way.

Zero chance this happens in my view, it would be like cutting Cloud for Clive.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

How about Terry? Do you think he'll stay around? Why or why not?

 

[Speed Weed]

Terry is my favorite third-party of the Smash cast but the only way he sticks around IMO is if ease of licensing really is that big of a factor

 

[Gengar84]

I really hope Terry sticks around. While I never really got into either King of Fighters or Fatal Fury, he’s one of my favorite characters to play in Smash. I’d be sad to see him go.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

How about Terry? Do you think he'll stay around? Why or why not?

Considering SNK basically gave Nintendo the keys to use the KOF series however they wanted i can see Terry coming back easy.

Maybe even giving KOF a second character.

 

[Jave]

I think 3rd parties sticking around is entirely up to Nintendo at this point. Smash has became such a major part of gaming by being the largest gaming crossover in history that I don't think any 3rd party wants to lose the status of being a part of it. If any 3rd party doesn't return, it'll be 99% because "Nintendo never called".

 

[Sucumbio]

... Is OK!

Dunno about min min tho

 

[fogbadge]

On the subject of 3rd party series as we all know depends on multiple factors. So you really have to go on a case by case system

as far as I can tell nintendo has good relationships with sega NB SE and capcom with NB having worked on some of Nintendos games so that gives them a good shot

Sonic - he has the distinction of being the first big third party want after we learned we could have third parties. And we now have more smash games with sonic than without which no other third party has achieved yet. He’s a mainstay I think

Bayo - nintendo love her for some reason and seems happy to throw money at platinum to make more. So she’ll be here for as long as sega allows

Joker - sega love pushing persona 5 so I can believe he might well stick around. The idea that he’d be replaced by the persona protagonist is only likely if persona 6 is a bigger success than 5

Megaman - I recall him be a very popular want for smash and while not everyone likes his moveset the general idea seems to be a revamp rather than kicked out. I think he’s got a good shot at staying

Ryu - he’s popular he’s from a successful series, all the stuff we usually use to claim a character as likely. Down to capcom I think. As for Ken while the same factors apply to him we have seen in the past clones to be lower priority

Pac-Man - gaming icon, Nintendo really chummy with NB I think he’s sticking around

Kazuya - erm this one I’m not 100% sure but I think the factors I listed for ryu work here as well

Cloud/Sephiroth - we know for a fact now that FF is difficult to license so I wouldn’t be surprised if they have difficulty returning. Though I’d say sephiroth is more likely to be cut

Hero - we all know how beloved DQ is in its home country and as far as I’m aware it’s not got the same license problems. Except for music so he may come back without any

now Konami is hard one to judge as last I heard they were a bunch of greedy blighters. but I don’t know how outdated my info is on that one

Snake - kojima got him in the fans brought him back. I know people voted for cut veterans on the ballot I think he’s safe. ish

Belmonts - don’t know enough about castlevanias current standing

Microsoft seems to have a decent relationship with nintendo despite trying to buy them every now and then

B&K - apparently it was an easy decision to make so that may remain true in the future

Steve - this one took five years to happen. It’s been speculated that it was due to licensing or development or sakurai being reluctant. But if he was difficult before he’ll likely be difficult again

in the case of SNK, well I won’t lie I keep forgetting terry exists so I got nothing on that one

Disney and nintendo have licensed each other’s characters a few times over their long histories but that’s not much of an indication of their relationship

Sora - the most wanted character on the ballot who was aptly included due to a chance encounter. Disney were eager to do it so the question is will they remain eager

 

[Noipoi]

I think most third parties are fine, with a few exceptions.

Snake and the Belmonts-Depends entirely on how Konami’s feeling in a few years. It’s really up in the air.

Cloud, Sephiroth, and Sora-I actually think Cloud and Hero will return, but as dlc veterans. Septhiroth and Sora…I’m iffy on them. I’ll never say they’ll never return, because I never say never. But we’ve all seen how stingy Square can be.

 

[dream1ng]

That honestly depends but at the very least, I can see Sonic, Mega Man, PAC-MAN and Street Fighter sticking around.

Yeah I agree (for the most part), which is why I'm interested in the reasoning for the strength of peoples' conviction towards a character I think is entirely possible but far less assured.

Very few, actually. I think if anything it'll be the newcomers who survive moreso than the ones brought back to fulfill EiH. Snake is the only 3rd party I'm skeptical about ATM. But obviously this could all change, it's still way too early to predict, I just have a feeling the priority will be to keep ultimate newcomers, with dlc characters being in base this time around.

So how do you reconcile the fact that the options for the next Smash are really just building from Ultimate or starting over with a prediction that we'll lose some but not many characters? That doesn't seem realistic to me. If it's a continuation we'll only lose who they couldn't relicense (which likely wouldn't be many, if any - though would be entirely third-party), and if they rebuild, then reaching anywhere close to Ultimate's count, plus Ultimate's count with newcomers, is just completely unrealistic.

Plus many third-parties generally prefer being DLC due to how the profit breaks down, so it would be easier negotiation-wise to not aim for base with a lot of them. Especially Square.

How about Terry? Do you think he'll stay around? Why or why not?

I think he's sort of in the same boat as Joker where his return is entirely possible but I really doubt he'd be in the first half of third-parties, priority-wise. Depends how deep the cuts go, but I think he's one of the less safe.

Of course, his comparative nicheness next to the other third-parties could be counterbalanced by his cut meaning SNK as a whole is likely also cut from the roster. As I think getting a different SNK character but not Terry, while something I occasionally see on a roster, isn't going to happen. And I do think the SNK stuff has actually been very well received, but of course, that's all just anecdotal.

That said, I do think SNK is still the likeliest third-party to not return in a playable capacity. Not including subsidiaries (e.g. Atlus), but including Disney.

Considering SNK basically gave Nintendo the keys to use the KOF series however they wanted i can see Terry coming back easy.

Maybe even giving KOF a second character.

It's not just about whether the third-party is amenable. Besides, right now there's no reason to believe any of them wouldn't be.

Zero chance this happens in my view, it would be like cutting Cloud for Clive.

I agree it's unlikely, but tbf we don't know how Persona 6 is gonna go. The series just keeps rising in profile. If the next one is multiplat sooner, it could be pretty huge too. Especially given its increased presence in the Nintendo fanbase since 5, and how Switch 2 may eat Japan like the current one has.

Terry is my favorite third-party of the Smash cast but the only way he sticks around IMO is if ease of licensing really is that big of a factor

I like Terry too, I really came around on being a bit ambivalent when SNK was first leaked. That said, given who they go for in terms of inclusions, it seems ease of licensing is not among the more definitive factors.

Plus, when it comes to vets, I suspect they'll all be easier to re-license than license in the first place.

 

[IKEI]

PHOENIX WRIGHT (I just NEED him at this point)

 

[dream1ng]

Again, if you look at third-parties in terms of merit, each one has a valid case to return. But the only way that happens is if we keep going from Ultimate like we did from 4, and no licensing issues arise.

But there's a very good chance it doesn't go in that direction. If the roster gets rebuilt, the cuts are going to be significant enough they won't all come back just because they won't all be sufficiently prioritized.

So you can't just look at it in terms of whether the character has a case to return. They all do. Smash doesn't include obscure third-parties. Bayo aside, even the smaller ones aren't that small. But you also have to gauge based on just where priority will cap off.

Because a roster where we lose like 10-15 characters total doesn't make sense. It's either gonna be a lot less than that (possibly none), or a lot more.

 

[Sucumbio]

So how do you reconcile the fact that the options for the next Smash are really just building from Ultimate or starting over with a prediction that we'll lose some but not many characters? That doesn't seem realistic to me. If it's a continuation we'll only lose who they couldn't relicense (which likely wouldn't be many, if any - though would be entirely third-party), and if they rebuild, then reaching anywhere close to Ultimate's count, plus Ultimate's count with newcomers, is just completely unrealistic.

I see a third option, starting renewed and not trying to reach Ultimates size...

Plus many third-parties generally prefer being DLC due to how the profit breaks down, so it would be easier negotiation-wise to not aim for base with a lot of them. Especially Square.

This was true for Ultimate but again I don't know that's the way they move forward necessarily. I imagine the DLC this time will be more newcomers and base will have the old dlc and vets except for maybe Snake. Other 3ps that are vets now will remain base playable at the expense of one of the small links, a Pokemon or 2, a fe character or 2, etc.

 

[Perkilator]

Okay, so, you guys saw the Angry Beavers showcase earlier today, right?

It reminded me of Source Gaming’s concept for Noah & Mio, where the two could switch via Fusion Arts, which were performed by holding B during special moves.

 

[Jave]

Okay, so, you guys saw the Angry Beavers showcase earlier today, right?

It reminded me of Source Gaming’s concept for Noah & Mio, where the two could switch via Fusion Arts, which were performed by holding B during special moves.

The idea of tagging out has already been used in Smash, but using the other character to perform specials while you use regular attacks with the main character and still be able to tag out while the other character is performing the special is GENIUS.

 

[fogbadge]

Sora…I’m iffy on them. I’ll never say they’ll never return, because I never say never. But we’ve all seen how stingy Square can be.

it's not up to SE

 

[Idon]

If Sora returns, it definitely will not be in base roster. Providing him in there allows Disney a slice of the entire pie instead of just that piece of DLC content.

 

[Garteam]

I don't think third parties would be treated with less priority simply because they're third parties. Basically, every non-Nintendo character in Smash is a mildly big and noteworthy name that we would think would never be cut if their home company developed the game.

I really think the determining factor is whether a character's license holder plays ball with Sakurai or whomever. Sega, Capcom, Namco Bandai, and SNK are pretty much guaranteed due to how liberal they are in allowing their characters to crossover in products not developed by them. Konami and Microsoft are a little more iffy, but still more likely than not to come back based on how much content they provided to Ultimate. Square Enix and Disney are the real question marks here.

 

[dream1ng]

I see a third option, starting renewed and not trying to reach Ultimates size...

That's the second option. If they start renewed they literally can't reach Ultimate's size given their time/budget. So the cuts are gonna be not insignificant.

This was true for Ultimate but again I don't know that's the way they move forward necessarily. I imagine the DLC this time will be more newcomers and base will have the old dlc and vets except for maybe Snake. Other 3ps that are vets now will remain base playable at the expense of one of the small links, a Pokemon or 2, a fe character or 2, etc.

But logistically it's just easier to make stubborn third-parties DLC if they want to be DLC. Look at the costumes - all the old first-party ones got moved to base, all the third-party ones, including the returning ones, stayed DLC. I expect that to happen again next time as well. I'm not saying every third-party will get exactly what they want, but without EiH, there's no ideological mandate to stick all the vets in base.

If, for example, there's truth to the idea FF ended up as it did as a compromise to get Cloud in base, Sakurai/Nintendo aren't going to make that concession for every Square vet when they can just be like "fine" and let most of it be DLC.

Plus, keep in mind that interspersing vets in the DLC is a way to make releases 1) more frequent/regular given the smaller amount of work to bring back a vet as opposed to adding a newcomer and 2) cheaper, given many of the vets will presumably be first-parties, while the DLC newcomers would likely lean more heavily third-party. And as Ultimate has shown (or I guess Smash 4 DLC), people can still get plenty hyped over a returning vet.

And if they're starting renewed, they're not gonna be able to fit close to all the vets in base anyway. At least they can keep adding them back with DLC.

Logistically, I think this just has more benefits.

If Sora returns, it definitely will not be in base roster. Providing him in there allows Disney a slice of the entire pie instead of just that piece of DLC content.

I'm just guessing, but I would suspect the back-end deal on DLC is ultimately more lucrative anyway than whatever the base deal may be.

At least for a character like Sora, who even showing up three years later still probably sold extremely well. Let alone if he showed up towards the beginning.

Which is also why I'm sure it was no small feat persuading Square to relinquish the back-end on Cloud.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I cant imagine Sora getting cut entirely because we know how popular of a request he was to be in smash, i think he's more likely to return than a lot of people imagine.

At least for the next smash anyway.

 

[Speed Weed]

I like Terry too, I really came around on being a bit ambivalent when SNK was first leaked. That said, given who they go for in terms of inclusions, it seems ease of licensing is not among the more definitive factors.

Plus, when it comes to vets, I suspect they'll all be easier to re-license than license in the first place.

Yeah we're on the same page, I doubt Terry comes back

 

[dream1ng]

I don't think third parties would be treated with less priority simply because they're third parties. Basically, every non-Nintendo character in Smash is a mildly big and noteworthy name that we would think would never be cut if their home company developed the game.

Well it wouldn't be because they're third-party, it's because priority just wouldn't extend that far. It's not like I'm suggesting we'll retain just about all of the first-parties but lose most of the third-parties. I think, proportionally, we'll lose about the same amount.

So if we lose 25% of the first-parties, I think we'd lose about 25% of the third-parties. If we lost 50%, I think we'd lose 50%. Not as some rule or some deliberate act, I just think it'd pan out roughly that way.

I really think the determining factor is whether a character's license holder plays ball with Sakurai or whomever. Sega, Capcom, Namco Bandai, and SNK are pretty much guaranteed due to how liberal they are in allowing their characters to crossover in products not developed by them. Konami and Microsoft are a little more iffy, but still more likely than not to come back based on how much content they provided to Ultimate. Square Enix and Disney are the real question marks here.

I think this is unrealistic if the game doesn't just build from Ultimate. If it's just a deluxe port, sure.

But if the roster starts again, how many characters can it feasibly get to? Maybe 50-ish in base? A few waves of DLC? But you also have to factor in newcomers, and they're not going to scrimp on them; they're huge draws. Realistically I don't see a game that rebuilds itself having any less than a few dozen cuts. And at that point I think you're losing some of the third-parties on that basis, even if they can be reacquired.

And again whether the third-party is amenable to work with (which I think they'll all be, assuming no major shifts) is only part of the equation. It's not as simple as "Square is still on board, so Cloud, Seph, Hero, and Sora are locked in (assuming Disney too)". Especially if they also add new Square characters.

I mean, where does it end? If all the parties were still game, and that meant all the third-party characters returned, plus they added another dozen, what happens in Smash 7 if that roster likewise starts again, and most/all of the companies are still on board? We're not gonna get a Smash game with like 45 third-parties and 25 first-parties. I doubt they'd even have the budget for that.

The third-parties will be cycled out as the rest of the roster will start to become cycled out.

 

[SPEN18]

It's hard to say exactly where it will be, but I think there will have to be some kind of Nintendo-imposed high water mark for third parties in any future base game simply due to probable budget constraints. How much is each individual third party worth in terms of selling the game versus how much they'll cost in licensing and energy spent in negotiation efforts? What's the realistic difference for the marketing team in bringing back X third parties versus X+1? It's definitely a diminishing return. After all, the whole function of third parties is the attention they garner from reveals and other advertising, which is significantly less for vets than for newcomers. This isn't DLC where they can bump up the price of the overall package by multiple dollars to accommodate an extra third party. Mind, I'm not saying that they're not rich enough to afford all the third parties if that was their #1 priority, but at what point does it cut into the budget too much to be actually worth it?

 

[Diddy Kong]

Okay, so, you guys saw the Angry Beavers showcase earlier today, right?

It reminded me of Source Gaming’s concept for Noah & Mio, where the two could switch via Fusion Arts, which were performed by holding B during special moves.

This is kinda how I'd like a Diddy and Dixie tag team to work.