To me it depends on what kind of DK game. If we're talking "just another" DKC sequel then it's less likely that they'd sit on it. If it's a radical gameplay shift like a full-on 3D, maybe even open world kind of game, then yeah that might be a more likely candidate to be held back for the new hardware. I can add that a brand new DK game sounds like a perfect fit for the current situation but these rumors have been in the mill for so long now that it only gets harder to believe them as time goes on.
Well, this is assuming its the EPD one. I don't recall genre specifics, if any were even given. But given the difference in developer, I imagine it will be immediately distinguishable from Retro's games, no matter how closely the genres align.
Unless they intentionally try to ape (heh) Retro's model, but that's not really EPD's style, so that seems unlikely.
Games aren't just "ok it's finished - release it", part of what factors into things is the strategic component of when and on what you release the title. Sometimes that results in them being sat on and/or moved to a following platform.
If they at all want to emulate the Switch's rollout of a very steady supply of big games in the first year, they'll probably have something from the MK and Odyssey teams, but they won't have Zelda, they won't have Splatoon, and they probably won't have Xenoblade. Not main titles, anyway. What they might have, is a DK game. What they also have, is future DK plans. It just has so much more utility for them as a game on the next thing than on the Switch. It's not like it's a series we get so frequently that releasing one on Switch means another would just follow in short order for the next thing.
With Camelot specifically, having their next project moved to the next hardware mid-development would explain a slightly longer time between releases for them. And in that case (or in the case that their next project remains on Switch), the project could indeed be Golden Sun, since there would be no reason to do Tennis or Golf again on Switch. If it's something planned from the beginning to be on the new hardware then I feel it is more likely to be a new Tennis or Golf than Golden Sun, as Nintendo is going to want that extra Mario juice to power the new hardware as soon as they can get it.
I mean I don't think it would be moved per say. I think, given the timing, if it is for the next system, it may have always been developed with that intent. Especially if it's Golf or Tennis, as like you say, the Switch has both of those already. But yeah, if it's GS, it could go either way.
Though I also think the "Mario juice" would be satisfied by the fact that, like I said, the Mario Kart and Odyssey teams are likely going to have something to show pretty soon, presumably for what's next. That and Nd Cube would be ready for a new release as well (though granted that doesn't have to be Mario - or for the next thing).
Tennis and Golf don't tend to show up in the launch window of consoles, probably in part because they use bigger Mario games during that timeframe to draw people in, and save the lower-profile spin-offs more as later supplements. Not that this is a rigid rule, but it does usually seem the case.
And there really isn't that much of a time difference for Camelot. Their console games have been three years apart for as long as they've done HD development. The last one came out in 2021, so if the next is 2024, that's par for the course (heh). Though making their first HD RPG, even just a remake of the first two GS games, may come with higher dev time than usual. Especially since I think EPD normally helps with providing assets for the Mario games.
Though I think that if it is GS, and it is for the Switch, based on the fact that this year seems less likely than next (unless Camelot is getting help or something) means Nintendo is doing it absolutely no favors in terms of an auspicious release.
And yeah having the smaller series as twilight Switch-era games would be suboptimal for their performance, but something has to fill that void and they're more likely to use lower-key releases in that scenario. And, of course, getting these series on a suboptimal timeline still easily trumps not getting them at all.
I think what's mostly going to fill that void is ports/remasters, maybe spin-offs. Possibly Pokemon, which usually lingers. Not to say I think there's no original titles left for Switch, but I think they're going to be pretty uncommon, especially from big series. I think TotK is probably the last original game from a major IP on the Switch. And just for the sake of clarification so there's no arguing about "major", I'm referring to FE/Metroid/Kirby level and up, including DK.
I suppose with the caveat that while I think at this point MP4 will release on the next thing, there may also be a Switch version considering how long it's been promised for Switch.
Of course, that still leaves room for a potential Uprising HD and GS1&2 HD. I agree they could go either way. I just hope they don't release at a time where knowledge or presence of what's next cannibalizes their potential.
As for the frequency of Nintendo sitting on games, I'm not convinced that it's quite as much as has been alleged; but especially given the XC3 situation, it certainly does happen relatively often. The thing, though, is that I don't want to be caught assuming that's the answer; like I alluded to before, it's a little fanciful to let yourself imagine that Nintendo has a bunch of these iconic series just waiting in the wings to swoop down and save the day at any moment. This fandom's been burned by overestimating Nintendo's output so many times already, hence why I won't rule it out but remain skeptical.
I didn't suggest any game that wasn't rumored to being sat on was being sat on, apart from DK. Though yeah, they are just claims, some may not be true. And in most of these cases, it's not like the games are being sat on for years, just months, to be used when the schedule needs. Which is often how it goes.
You save games for a dry spell, you push games into future quarters, you sit on some backups if there are delays... there's absolutely a strategy to a release schedule, and you need to have some contingencies.
Though also, look how many droughts there have been for the Switch... not many, right? Things go wrong, delays happen, there was a whole ass pandemic. But there are strategies in place to maintain a somewhat steady output, and that involves holding games back when you need to.
What you say at the end there is part of my skepticism as well; a lower-priority series is less likely to be moved to the new hardware mid-development due to the cost and development disruption. Though of course it's not impossible and not even without precedent.
Right, well I don't think something like GS or KI would be moved to a new platform, I think they would either be planned for the Switch or planned for the next thing from the jump. Or, if they were moved, they were moved at a very early stage of development.
That was my main contention with comparing them to DK, which is big enough that I do think it being moved isn't without reason. I was also just saying that smaller IPs like those could indeed still show up in a system's launch window. It's just they're usually not the priority.
At the end of the day I'd hope for the best possible scenario we can get for all these series. I just don't think it wise to convince yourself that these series being sat on and/or planned out as nextgen launch games is the most likely outcome, even though it's still a plausible (and highly favorable) outcome.
Well I don't even know if these games exist, let alone which platform they'd be for. Almost all of this is dealing with hypotheticals.
That said, I do believe the DK game exists, and I have doubts that at this point it will show up on Switch. But I'm not doing more than what I believe to be educated guessing.
