Pokemon cut half its dex and it's trucking along fine.
Smash could cut half its roster tomorrow, and while it'd lose some of the hardcore fans, the casual market probably wouldn't give a ****. Remember how angry people online got over Dexit? Sword and Shield are what, the 3rd? 4th? highest selling Pokemon games of all time?
As long as they market it well, Smash'll sell regardless of what happens. Casuals don't care nearly as hard as we do.
I Mean, The thing is that One of the Main Appeals of Smash is the Crossover Nature of the Series. That's why I think cutting characters is much harder with this game than usual Fighting games, or even with Pokemon. Casuals come for the Crossover nature as well
even still, I do agree, and I do think the next Smash could still sell well even if not every character comes back, but it depends on what New stuff they add to it though, and what they keep. Cutting the 3rd parties would be a Catastrophe in my Opinion as an example
Everyone is Here it way too important to Smash's identity to leave it behind like it was just a marketing trick.
Sakurai literally said this is what he thinks most players wanted and he was right. To go back on that would not be received well.
Once you're in Smash you're a veteran and you're staying.
So who do have to contend with?
We have:
Konami
Capcom
Bamco
Square-Enix/Disney
SEGA
Microsoft
SNK
Konami is literally in the process of outsourcing work on their video game IPs. What would be their major objection to getting money from Smash again? Oh probably nothing that's right.
Capcom seems fine to work with. They were the first third-party company to get two unique fighters. At least compared to the headache that used to be Square I'm sure they're very easy to work with.
Bamco makes the freaking game. Their stuff is almost as easy as first-party stuff.
Square-Enix has seemingly committed to Smash at this point. I don't see an issue with them anymore besides the headache around the music but this is why the new remixes are so important because now they can just reuse those instead paying for the rights and the recording process now just repay for the rights the already recorded remixes they've done. Again seems like more and more companies are relaxing their concerns about potential Smash inclusions. It's pretty much impossible to think of it as anything other than a benefit. Square-Enix is so on board they brought Disney into the fold and Sakurai even said the Disney exec he met was immediately agreeable to the proposal.
SEGA has been so consistent that it's not even a question whether or not they'll play along.
Microsoft seemingly gave Banjo away (Sakurai noted how easy it was to get them) and has given up Minecraft what is probably their most protected videogame IP. Microsoft and Nintendo's relationship is solid and is only getting more solid as time goes on.
SNK is most likely really grateful for the boost in visibility that Terry's inclusion gave them. I can't imagine they're going to a problem.
Just a counterpoint to the supposed impossibility of Everyone is Here part 2. Again I think it's such an integral part of Smash's identity at this point that it'd be franchise suicide to go back on it.
I think one thing to also mention is I believe Most of the time Sakurai said Everyone is here might be an Impossibility, That was before Smash Ultimate became the Best Selling Fighting game in the World
I think Sakurai and Nintendo thought Smash would do numbers of Course. It always has, even on the Failing Console of the Wii U. I don't think they would figure it would beat Street Fighter 2 by Almost 10 Million Sales (It can probably get past 10 Million at this rate). I know the Switch Ecosystem is making games sell well, but Bringing every character back and having so many Collab's, as well as fine tuning of the gameplay is what got Smash up to 24 Million Copies, in spite of some Lackluster Single player and Even more Lacking Online
BOTW is the game that pretty much Catapulted Zelda to a Behemoth of a Franchise, and that game is getting a Sequel. Ultimate did the Same for Smash. The Previous games did have some hype behind it, but I think Ultimate is another beast entirely. I think Nintendo is willing to continue in this direction at least for this game
My general idea: A port of Ultimate would be uninteresting, especially with no substantial single player content. A reboot could refine a lot, but alienate audiences for leaving a lot out. My thinking: do a crossover. Nintendo VS CAPCOM, SEGA, Shonen Jump, Disney, whoever. Project Smash X Zone, or Nintendo VS Everyone Else [everyone else in video games, anyways] even. The expectations would be different than for a straight-up/regular Smash 6, you could refine/rework the Nintendo half while keeping the hype crossover fact that's made Smash continue to get bigger and bigger. Maybe this idea is also unpopular rather than just doing Smash 6, but it's a thought I've kept having.
I would argue building off Ultimate would made having Substantial Single Player content much more likely, since they have already developed the Game Feel and Balance of the game already, as well as the characters
I think the thing people have to consider is that a Reboot would make it so Alot of attention would have to once again be put on the Balance and Game Mechanics, especially if they substantially change the formula. That leaves less time for Characters and Single Player
Now the idea of Nintendo vs one Specfic Company is something that I think will happen sometime in the Late future. Nintendo contracts out Sakurai, who contracts out Employees (In this case, Bandai Namco) to make Smash as of now, but Sakurai himself said he can only do a Few games, and he might not do this forever. I think what Nintendo could do with Smash is perhaps let other Companies like Capcom or Arc System Works make a Fighting game with their Nintendo I.Ps. It would not appeal to as Many people, but Nintendo Franchises have a Big Pull (Especially now), and it would also allow deeper dives into Character selection perhaps on Both Sides
I don't think they would go in that direction for Smash 6, but I do think they will go in that direction for Games afterward