Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Ivander]

I keep forgetting about it because so did Nintendo. It's a really good song though.

Break Free is in Smash Bros last time I checked, so they haven't forgotten about it.....yet.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

The break free lead the way erasure whenever the subject of pauline comes up, smh my head

At least the song is already in Smash but Ultimate is probably the only game where Odyssey is directly referenced outside of a tie in and Pauline.

Mario Kart 8 for example doesn’t have a track from that game and Cappy hasn’t appeared since Ultimate if it’s is bigger then a cameo (Ring Fit if cameos count).

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Break Free is in Smash Bros last time I checked, so they haven't forgotten about it.....yet.

It is, it's just whenever they spotlight Pauline's musical talent, it's always Jump Up, Superstar that she's associated with (except for Mario Kart and Mario Strikers Battle League which just have her scat, which I kinda like, especially since her design takes cues from that era of fashion).

 

[BrawlX10]

I feel it's unlikely that Metroid gets its flavor of the month baddies if series like Zelda have failed to do so in the past.

To be fair, it's completely posible they break the "rule" (more like a patern than a rule, to be fair) and just add Raven Beak and a BOTW/TOTK rep, anyways even if they're not going to be a mainstay.
I don't think it's extremely likely or anything, but i don't think something not happening means it's never going to happen with exceptions of course, the only characters i'm sure are likely off-the table, at least for Smash 6 are: are non-videogame characters (Spongebob, Goku), Characters were it's game has been recently sued by Nintendo (Palworld) or characters from third party games like Big the Cat from Sonic, Carver from Dragon Quest VI or Quina from Final Fantasy IX that aren't probably getting over other popular characters in their series.

 

[Ivander]

Mario Kart 8 for example doesn’t have a track from that game and Cappy hasn’t appeared since Ultimate if it’s is bigger then a cameo (Ring Fit if cameos count).

Because Mario Kart 8 came out first? And Deluxe came out before Odyssey? And the Booster Course pack mainly consisted of stages from Mario Kart Tour, including most of the re-done tracks from other games?

Meanwhile, the Captain Toad re-release had Odyssey themed levels since it's re-release came out after Mario Odyssey.

 

[Perkilator]

Re: Costumes

At the very least, for the next game, I’d like for there to be a minimum of 8 costume slots and a maximum of 16. Little Mac in Smash 4 was the only character who got 16 alts (not even Robin or Wario got that many, with the latter even getting less alts then he did back in Brawl on the Wii) and that was it.

 

[Dinoman96]

Anything can happen I suppose, but I look at the villains/rivals we currently have in Smash (etc) and I can't help but feel the likes of Raven Beak and EMMI are ways off from a playable role.

 

[Ivander]

Dreamcase scenario, we get alternate costumes alongside a color editor. Likelihood scenario, most characters will get 1 alternate outfit with varying colors while a couple other characters will get multiple costumes.

 

[Louie G.]

re: Pauline, she's grown on me a bit. But my soured perspective toward her is just that her "hook" as a performance based / musician character is better served by other characters in my book. I've spoken on it before, we've talked about whether or not they can coexist, but knowing Sakurai's methods (note, his emphasis on unique character "themes" in the Smash 4 project proposal) I just have to worry she could stomp on the feet of characters like Splatoon idols, KK Slider or Chorus Kids. I like Jump Up Super Star, but I think it feels kinda cheap for that to get top billing over these other prospects. But I can admit being petty, it's no coincidence that several of my most wanted characters fit into this archetype and Pauline is not one of them.

On the bright side though, I do think Pauline's credentials are solid enough. Having her utilize Cappy mechanics via her Mayor hat, using her micstand as a makeshift staff and so on could be fun spins on the premise and intuitively utilize some of her more unique traits. I think Pauline is generally overestimated in her significance and popularity - she's no Rosalina - but her case does have legs. She has become a staple spinoff character now and her debut dating all the way back to DK lets Smash add a character with both some retro pull and modern flair.

I still do think Waluigi is the most likely Mario character but the jury is out on the second. Could be her, or like five other guys.

To be fair, it's completely posible they break the "rule" (more like a patern than a rule, to be fair) and just add Raven Beak and a BOTW/TOTK rep, anyways even if they're not going to be a mainstay.

I hope I won't be misconstrued as trying to peddle a "rule". Of course it's possible, and dare I say likely that this is subverted in the next game (in this case, presumably through a Zelda character). But I'm just suggesting I don't see EMMI and Raven Beak as inherently more worthy of this than someone like Midna or Ghirahim in their prime. Or Magolor, or whoever.

And I don't personally think Smash considers whether or not they're introducing a "mainstay" anwyay, outside of the obvious. Like if you add Inkling, you know they're gonna be in every game from here on out. But with most characters you're probably just looking to deliver a good experience in the moment and don't have the future of the series in mind. So I wouldn't say the lack of these characters is intended as some sort of future proofing, either.

 

[DarthEnderX]

TBH My one main reservation with Smash being this year is really because well, Nintendo already has Mario Kart and very likely 3D Mario booked for this year, so releasing Smash on top of that seems a bit overkill.

2026 will possibly be where Pokémon Gen 10 comes out, and I don't know if Smash can compete against Pokémon.

What universe do you people live in where all these Nintendo tentpoles are competing with each other?

People are just going to buy all of them.

If 3D Mario, Kart, Smash and Pokemon all came out in the same year, guess what 4 games everyone would definitely buy that year?

Time to break out the vouchers!

Pauline’s kind of a one hit wonder, huh?

She has two songs in Odyssey.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Anything can happen I suppose, but I look at the villains/rivals we currently have in Smash (etc) and I can't help but feel the likes of Raven Beak and EMMI are ways off from a playable role.

When you list the others...



They aren't so far off.

 

[Gengar84]

I wanted to come up with a bit of a subversive answer to this question so I'm gonna make the case for a dark horse candidate that I don't think people give enough credit toward - EMMI from Metroid Dread.

<--- That ain't Raven Beak!

As a disclaimer, I don't think EMMI is the "most likely" but strikes me as a character that should be getting a bit more attention, and I wanted to use this as a springboard for discussion. That attention is often thrust onto Raven Beak, and while I think Beak is dope and that his abilities make him a much easier character to envision in Smash, I think EMMI has just as much if not more credibility. Personally, I feel it's unlikely that Metroid gets its flavor of the month baddies if series like Zelda have failed to do so in the past. But since much of the community likes to humor the odds of Dread getting a character anyway, I may as well make the case for the other candidate.

Raven Beak's lore implications and striking final boss battle demand attention from fans, and it's understandable. But EMMI is the very thing that this game was sold on - it is the source of the "Dread" namesake, and embodies the game's central gimmick. Frankly, I also think its more within Smash's nature to abide by this than to add the final boss. EMMI will be more identifiable to a wider audience of players. With an amiibo and Figma in tow, it's got a somewhat surprising amount of merchandising for a series that is not heavy on it to begin with. No doubt because well... its design is just incredibly cool.

I think the way EMMI moves is endlessly compelling, on that front its probably one of the most strikingly unique Nintendo characters in recent memory. Its strange alien means of contorting itself and surprising mobility are aspects that I could see inspiring Sakurai to explore the concept. Its role as sort of a Xenomorph esque horror monster whole goal is to chase you down and corner you is kind of a fascinating angle to take a character as well, concepts that we've maybe discussed for Resident Evil or Silent Hill. But EMMI provides Nintendo with its own relentlessly pursuant beast. These kind of premises and characters are more true to what Metroid is all about...and honestly, as a side note, we really don't have a lot of robots in Smash do we?

There are of course a number of things you can hold against it. Like I said, I think it's unlikely that Metroid moves the dial on any new character as much as it does just see a wealth of supplemental content. I think EMMI is a prime choice for an AT, or a stage hazard. Its moveset also doesn't pop as easily as Raven Beak, but I will defend that EMMI's spider-like design inspires a lot on its own and Smash can utilize the unique abilities of the various EMMI that you confront through the game. My point isn't to tell you that EMMI will be in the game, but moreso as a vocalization of why I wish it got more attention, and why I consider it to be an equally valid choice to represent Metroid's growth as its final boss.

Yeah, these are pretty much exactly my thoughts too. I’ve advocated for E.M.MI. myself a few times here.

 

[Nabbitfan730]

People are just going to buy all of them.

If 3D Mario, Kart, Smash and Pokemon all came out in the same year, guess what 4 games everyone would definitely buy that year?

Ok, then what about next year, or the year after that? Or after that or after that etc?

This is not even thinking about the development time that goes behind it

 

[Dinoman96]

When you list the others...



They aren't so far off.

I'll give you Piranha Plant, but that was specifically meant to be Sakurai's "surprise character" in Ultimate. And even then, it's ironically still way more prolific than all of these other characters (Something Sakurai himself noted in 2018).

Dark Samus really shouldn't be counted for this because she's essentially a glorified alt costume, same thing with Dark Pit, whereas someone like Raven Beak would need to be a fully unique newcomer. It's kiiiiinda the same thing with Wolf (who at least was also a reoccuring character by the time of his inclusion in Brawl), he's definitely more unique than DS obviously but he was still a very low priority derivative character who barely got into Brawl to begin with.

Those characters I mentioned beforehand are all entirely unique fighters and happen to be some of the most prolific and noteworthy Nintendo/gaming villains/rivals, that is the distinction, and two of them also needed the Smash ballot to get them through the door. I just don't think Raven Beak is on their level, and he really can't be made into an easy clone/derivative character.

 

[DynamicSmasher]

What universe do you people live in where all these Nintendo tentpoles are competing with each other?

People are just going to buy all of them.

If 3D Mario, Kart, Smash and Pokemon all came out in the same year, guess what 4 games everyone would definitely buy that year?

Time to break out the vouchers!

She has two songs in Odyssey.

Yeah, I'd say the potential issue would be less them choking out each other's sales and more Nintendo might want to space them out so that they've got big hitters spread out, rather than having all of their top sellers in the first year, and then having to cover year 2 with another Star Fox 64 remake or something.

Re: Costumes

At the very least, for the next game, I’d like for there to be a minimum of 8 costume slots and a maximum of 16. Little Mac in Smash 4 was the only character who got 16 alts (not even Robin or Wario got that many, with the latter even getting less alts then he did back in Brawl on the Wii) and that was it.

I feel like 10-12ish would satisfy me, especially if 1 or 2 of those had different outfits. But my main hope is that Sega, Namco and Game Freak(to a lesser extent) ease up on Sonic, Pac-man and the Pokemon(mainly Pikachu/Pichu/Jigglypuff) so that they can be in different colours and not just slightly shaded versions of their original.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Ok, then what about next year, or the year after that? Or after that or after that etc?

I dunno, maybe some of the other dozen hit franchises they have? Or ongoing DLC for those first 4 games. Or 3rd party titles. Or just more Pokemon. Etc.

This is not even thinking about the development time that goes behind it

None of those games are made by the same studio. So why would that matter?

 

[Louie G.]

Those characters I mentioned beforehand are all entirely unique fighters and happen to be some of the most prolific and noteworthy Nintendo/gaming villains/rivals, that is the distinction, and two of them also needed the Smash ballot to get them through the door. I just don't think Raven Beak is on their level, and he really can't be made into an easy clone/derivative character.

Is anybody left who is? Not for nothing, but we're kind of at the stage where we're in the position to add B-lister villains anyway.

Maybe DJ Octavio, off technicality being a recurring villain from one of Nintendo's biggest IP. As a character I don't think he is as popular as these characters, but nevertheless... as much as I love K. Rool he's not exactly Bowser or Sephiroth either. Beyond that, if we add any new first party villains, they really aren't gonna be on a much greater caliber than the likes of Raven Beak or EMMI - Skull Kid, Magolor, etc are technically right on this level. Obviously we can add Eggman or whoever but that's another can of worms.

Like, I don't know how likely any of these characters are, but I'm just trying to highlight that if our judgement is "x character is not on y character's level" then that puts us in a very rough position. To Brawl's point earlier now is probably the point where some of these prior conditions get challenged.

 

[PersonAngelo53]

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

youtu.be

This guy makes some good points.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

Ok, then what about next year, or the year after that? Or after that or after that etc?

This is not even thinking about the development time that goes behind it

Smash 6 will probably be 2026/7. If there is anything Smash related for 2025 then it will probably be a reveal or announcement like how Brawl was teased when the Wii was announced.

 

[ninjahmos]

Smash 6 will probably be 2026/7. If there is anything Smash related for 2025 then it will probably be a reveal or announcement like how Brawl was teased when the Wii was announced.

I think it'd be pretty cool if they took the Brawl approach for the announcement/reveal trailer, and revealed 5-8 newcomers.

 

[Garteam]

IMO, the biggest issue confronting EMMI and Raven Beak is that, unless your series has a rotating cast like Pokémon or Fire Emblem, secondary characters typically have to make multiple appearances and prove they have staying power before they appear in Smash.

That may change now that most series have their core cast in Smash, but I imagine that will mostly result in long-time fan favourites like Skull Kid and Geno getting serious consideration rather than adding the most recent character for their own sake.

 

[Golden Icarus]

I hope I won't be misconstrued as trying to peddle a "rule". Of course it's possible, and dare I say likely that this is subverted in the next game (in this case, presumably through a Zelda character). But I'm just suggesting I don't see EMMI and Raven Beak as inherently more worthy of this than someone like Midna or Ghirahim in their prime. Or Magolor, or whoever.

And I don't personally think Smash considers whether or not they're introducing a "mainstay" anwyay, outside of the obvious. Like if you add Inkling, you know they're gonna be in every game from here on out. But with most characters you're probably just looking to deliver a good experience in the moment and don't have the future of the series in mind. So I wouldn't say the lack of these characters is intended as some sort of future proofing, either.

I’m not sure if this would necessarily make him more likely for Smash, but I do think there is a huge difference between Raven Beak and characters like Girahim and Midna.

Metroid has a very clear, easy to follow continuity with every mainline game. Even the Prime games exist in a defined gap between Metroid 1 and 2. The Zelda series is told in legends that take place hundreds of years from each other and completely reimagine the setting every time. The Metroid series follows the adventures of a single Samus through one timeline. Without talking too spoiler-y, Metroid Dread currently exists at the end of a steady story that has been being unraveled for decades, with Raven Beak’s very existence being a massive reveal as he holds a ton of significance to the lore of Metroid and Samus’ character.

I love Skull Kid and Midna and Ghirahim, but you definitely can’t say the same thing about them. There is no expectation that they’ll hold any significance beyond the one game they star in and I’d even argue most of them have a smaller role in their respective game than Raven Beak does in Dread. Kraid, Mother Brain and Ridley consistently manage to come back to antagonize Samus in every other game. Characters in Metroid are rarely one-offs, while Zelda characters almost always are.

I’m not even sure how much this matters when it comes to character selection, considering characters like Sheik exist, but I still think he deserves some distinction from the Zelda one-offs. He isn’t just the popular guy from the new game, but has retroactively become a major player in the Metroid series and is likely to continue showing up if previous Metroid villains are anything to go by. I really do think this is a big distinction.

 

[cashregister9]

When it comes to EMMI and Raven Beak, I personally much prefer Raven Beak but I do think that if anyone where to be added, EMMI is probably more likely, because of one very weird reason that probably doesn't have much to do with anything

it is like the very few Metroid characters, aside from Samus and Ridley, to ever get merchandise

EMMI has a really nice Figma

It's not much of a reason, but it does show that Nintendo wants EMMI to be an icon of the Metroid series, at least a little bit.

 

[BrawlX10]

I think it'd be pretty cool if they took the Brawl approach for the announcement/reveal trailer, and revealed 5-8 newcomers.

It really depends how much base game newcomers there is, i think anything over 10 newcomers is honestly in my opinion, highly unlikely.
I think the best would be reveal 3 newcomers: 2 1st party and one 3rd party, not too much but not too little...kinda like Smash 4.
Waluigi, Bandana Dee/Malogor and Sans would be my picks.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

The Rivals of Aether mod really sold me on the E.M.M.I.

It'd be far cooler to see in Smash to me than Raven Beak.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Weirdly enough, while I'm unsure if E.M.M.I. will get into Smash as a fighter, I can see the general concept returning to at least 2D Metroid again. The core idea has a lot of interesting places to go with and it's a distinct foe compared to just having more Space Pirates, Metroids, or various planetary fauna.

 

[Ivander]

While I wouldn't mind a playable E.M.M.I., I do want it to be more an Assist Trophy than a Fighter. Just because I want the E.M.M.I. to induce panic attacks and make people scramble whenever it's summoned, similar to when something like The Moon or Rathalos are summoned.

 

[Shinuto]

Which indies do you think have the best chances of getting in? I see Quote, Cuphead, Shantae, Shovel Knight, Sans, Reimu, and Zagreus.

 

[ninjahmos]

Which indies do you think have the best chances of getting in? I see Quote, Cuphead, Shantae, Shovel Knight, Sans, Reimu, and Zagreus.

I could see The Knight from Hollow Knight getting in.

 

[Shinuto]

I could see The Knight from Hollow Knight getting in.

Idk Silksong has kinda flat lined since it still not out yet

 

[Noipoi]

Which indies do you think have the best chances of getting in? I see Quote, Cuphead, Shantae, Shovel Knight, Sans, Reimu, and Zagreus.

Begging and hoping and pleading and crying for Undertale to be the first indie fighter.

 

[Opossum]

Which indies do you think have the best chances of getting in? I see Quote, Cuphead, Shantae, Shovel Knight, Sans, Reimu, and Zagreus.

I see Sans as not just the most likely indie character, but the most likely third party newcomer in general. I think his odds are that good.

 

[Garteam]

Thinking about secondary characters generally, I don’t think that “we’ve got each series’ core main cast, so now’s the time to start looking at B-listers from those franchises” is the right approach. We’ve been at the point for almost two decades now and it’s clear that’s not the philosophy adopted by Sakurai.

Brawl was the game that focused the hardest on adding secondary characters for a good reason: Melee was incredibly anemic when it came to representing any franchise that wasn’t Mario, Pokémon, or Zelda. There was a lot to work with, so 2/3rds of Brawl’s newcomers ended up being from supporting Nintendo series because massive names like Diddy Kong, King Dedede, Charizard, and Wario (if you want to count him) were missing.

Smash for Wii U/3DS was the game that de-emphasized secondary characters, which makes sense following Brawl. Only 5 secondary characters were added and, of those five, three were added partially to modernize the representation of their franchises (). Instead, there was a lot more focus on adding new franchises, which Brawl generally didn’t do much of.

Ultimate kind of lies in the middle. We got six secondary characters from Nintendo franchises added. Half were added to modernize representation (), while three were evergreen characters that weren’t really modernizing their franchise’s cast (). That being said, I do think it’s pretty clear that’s Ultimate did have a philosophy closer to Smash for than Brawl, particularly once the DLC came about.

That being said, I do think we’ll see more secondary characters from third party franchises, which will alter the ratio of new secondary characters to new primary characters closer to that of Brawl. Now that has opened the flood gates, basically every third party franchise is in a spot similar to Nintendo franchises that weren’t Mario, Zelda, and Pokémon circa 2005. While licensing limits how many third party secondary characters can be added, I wouldn’t be surprised if more cooperative licensors got multiple, unique characters. That would obviously happen on top of adding Nintendo’s secondary characters who are either major players who have been missing for awhile (Waluigi, BWD, Tom Nook, etc.) and the standard modernization we’ve seen previously (Octoling, a new Gen 9 Pokemon, etc.)

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

Say, when after the next Smash Bros. is announced, do you all think we'll go back to the gradual reveals of characters like what was had in Brawl's Dojo site and Smash 4's main website during the development of the base game before its release?

 

[Thegameandwatch]

Which indies do you think have the best chances of getting in? I see Quote, Cuphead, Shantae, Shovel Knight, Sans, Reimu, and Zagreus.

An Undertale character such as Sans, Shantae and Shovel Knight.

Say, when after the next Smash Bros. is announced, do you all think we'll go back to the gradual reveals of characters like what was had in Brawl's Dojo site and Smash 4's main website during the development of the base game before its release?

I think the old characters will be gradual but the new characters will be trailers. Essentially like how it was in Smash 4 but without Miiverse.

 

[Perkilator]

Say, when after the next Smash Bros. is announced, do you all think we'll go back to the gradual reveals of characters like what was had in Brawl's Dojo site and Smash 4's main website during the development of the base game before its release?

I think probably gradual reveals like with Brawl, both veterans and newcomers alike, and then major gameplay trailers in the Directs that reveal multiple newcomers.

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

I think probably gradual reveals like with Brawl, both veterans and newcomers alike, and then major gameplay trailers in the Directs that reveal multiple newcomers.

Yeah, I was almost thinking something like that.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Which indies do you think have the best chances of getting in? I see Quote, Cuphead, Shantae, Shovel Knight, Sans, Reimu, and Zagreus.

I'd say either Shovel Knight, Shantae or Sans

All three of them at least have the benefit of being in Smash already in some capacity, just not as playable characters.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Say, when after the next Smash Bros. is announced, do you all think we'll go back to the gradual reveals of characters like what was had in Brawl's Dojo site and Smash 4's main website during the development of the base game before its release?

I would assume more of a Smash 4 approach than a Brawl approach. The trailers are huge events that give Nintendo a LOT of marketing power, and I don't see them halting that any time soon, though I do think only starters (newcomers unlocked from the beginning) will be given trailers before the game comes out, with unlockables shown after the fact like Bowser Jr. and Duck Hunt were after 3DS came out potentially, or just added to the game's trailer list upon unlock, though obviously I could be wrong since it'd be kinda weird to pay for and make trailers most people won't see lol

For veterans though, I anticipate a slow burn approach, probably faster than Smash 4's because I imagine we'll have more veterans to worry about getting through, but again, likely just starters unless they keep Ultimate's approach of revealing everything pre-release.

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

I would assume more of a Smash 4 approach than a Brawl approach. The trailers are huge events that give Nintendo a LOT of marketing power, and I don't see them halting that any time soon, though I do think only starters (newcomers unlocked from the beginning) will be given trailers before the game comes out, with unlockables shown after the fact like Bowser Jr. and Duck Hunt were after 3DS came out potentially, or just added to the game's trailer list upon unlock, though obviously I could be wrong since it'd be kinda weird to pay for and make trailers most people won't see lol

For veterans though, I anticipate a slow burn approach, probably faster than Smash 4's because I imagine we'll have more veterans to worry about getting through, but again, likely just starters unless they keep Ultimate's approach of revealing everything pre-release.

Yeah, actually, I most definitely wouldn't mind something like that.