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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

ScrubReborn

Smash Apprentice
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Mar 6, 2024
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I think Sora is more likely to be base than Cloud just because he's literally the single most requested character of all time according to the Ballot, and cutting a character like that is a ROUGH call to make, especially when Sakurai knows every character has their fans. And even if Disney "bleeds them dry", they did it once and Ultimate's success as the highest selling fighting game ever made would presumably allow a pretty substantial budget, likely HIGHER than before. Plus if I recall correctly, wasn't Disney pretty open to the idea? I mean they hashed out the deal after Sakurai met a Disney exec at an awards show, with FP2 being for sale in early 2020, so I don't think negotiations could've possibly taken that long.

At the same time, I could see Cloud and Sephiroth being DLC because FF7 Remake is Square's giant multi-part game project currently spanning four years and counting.

I'm of the opinion that if Square wants in from the start we'll see Hero in base at least, and I feel like Sora will be there too from his sheer popularity.
Hmm, yeah, good points. Though all that was when Sora was a DLC character and Disney would get extra cash from each purchase. I'm just not sure Disney would be as cooperative for base game. Maybe they would, but I'd have to see it to believe it. IDK I don't trust the mouse as far as I can throw 'im.

...Also I deadass forgot about Hero when making that post lol. He makes a good case for likeliest Square base inclusion too. Especially if the music was really the only barrier (which I've heard, but I'm not the first person you should consult on that). I think I'd still give the edge to Cloud for seniority, but good play.
 
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Louie G.

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I think I'd still give the edge to Cloud for seniority, but good play.
This is what I had thought too, but I'm starting to feel that this is a pretty sterilizing mindset. Particularly if our total number of guests has to take a significant hit, I would suspect we want to maintain at least 3-4 characters from Ultimate's expansive DLC cycle of guest characters (and Simon). Cutting these characters' wings immediately after they take off isn't what I anticipate the next game will do. Smash deserves to create a new legacy and further establish new faces. So when I see people say oh yeah, Snake will totally come back over Simon because he was in Brawl so he has the legacy... I just think the mentality is flawed.

Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest are pretty interchangeable here. Not in that these two series are the same thing, far from it, but in the way they are both a couple of the definitive JRPG series with massive cultural influence and clout. Cloud is a bigger character to us out in the west, but Hero's reveal was treated with such fanfare and excitement overseas that I believe they value this collaboration more than some people are giving credit toward. The Toriyama designs also help give it a strong identity and might be something people are feeling especially passionate about now. I'm not suggesting Hero would simply be added back in memoriam of Toriyama but I do believe it meant a lot for Sakurai and others to pay respect to his work in Smash.

In Cloud's defense, Final Fantasy is the first third party series to get a fully unique second character which is quite a big deal. I would love if they brought back Sephiroth immediately. I don't think they will, but I wish they would. The fact that Cloud / Sephiroth bundle is something that could feasibly make a good amount of money and serve as a vessel to reintroduce them both into the series might make FF DLC / DQ base roster the easier move.

There's a scenario where we get both back from the jump, but I think it's fairly unlikely. Mostly because I'm trying to keep my expectations conservative and I truly believe just about anything can happen with our third party lineup. As long as :ultsonic::ultpacman::ultmegaman::ultryu: are in tact I could see the logic behind pretty much any combination of guest characters past that.
 
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ShotoStar

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Sep 3, 2020
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84
My hot take is that I think Disney is a lot less of a hassle than people make them out to be. Disney has been getting into the gaming market recently and investing heavily into it so if they think re-adding Sora will help their brand then they'll definitely be willing to do so. I think Sora is actually very high on the priority list given he ranked #1 in the Smash Ballot to the point I'm half convinced he'll be returning in Base Game. It's a hard sell to convince anyone else of this because the rightful notion of Disney being stingy but while companies are stingy, they also care about money and advertisement. Smash is a fantastic way to advertise the KH brand especially with KH4 being an upcoming release likely close to or around when Smash 6 releases.

It's also partially why I think Banjo will be in base game and Steve will be DLC since Banjo placed high in the Smash Ballot as well. Generally, I think 3rd parties are much less of a problem than they're made out to be though just because of how much sway Sakurai has over the gaming industry. If Sakurai returns, I could see most 3rd parties return as well and if Sakurai doesn't then I could see a much more conservative, milquetoast Smash game being produced
 

Sucumbio

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2 Final Fantasy
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Which SE series is next of any? Or we just need to conserve what we have and hope they all make it? Are these options mutually exclusive?
 

Louie G.

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the rightful notion of Disney being stingy but while companies are stingy, they also care about money and advertisement
Both of which are still effective, even moreso, by selling Sora as DLC again. This puts emphasis on him directly, presumably gives the participating companies more monetary incentive, and brings back a fan favorite character all the same. It just feels like the ideal business move for a savvy company like Disney to maximize as much as they can out of this deal, while still effectively playing ball and keeping their somewhat good will.

Banjo and Steve feel like another situation entirely, to me. Unlike Sora, there is pretty heavy precedent for Banjo being an easy grab for base roster. Microsoft has been providing Nintendo with Rare games on NSO, a service in which they're unlikely to see too much profit from unless Nintendo is paying top dollar for these titles... somewhat unlikely, because the original Banjo-Kazooie, probably the one that would cause the biggest stir, was announced to be coming to NSO in the most nonchalant way possible. Rare got a heavier showcase in that last partner direct, but the conditions in which these games are available is very generous. They could have easily sold all these games independently on the eshop, or through a premium. So I'm willing to agree with the likelihood of Banjo coming back at launch, because Microsoft's recent behavior has favored it... I'm not sure if we have any evidence of Disney operating the same way right now.

And then Steve is Steve. I could see him being DLC, but Banjo / Steve always felt like a comfortable package deal the same way Mega Man / Ryu is to me. And Microsoft feels a bit more desperate to keep its good will among Nintendo fans? So maybe this is more of a personal thing, but I don't see them fighting it too hard as long as Nintendo agrees to add another Microsoft character as DLC soon after - and the options are plentiful.

I think under other conditions Sora would be a lock for base roster. If he was owned by Sega or Capcom this wouldn't even be a question. But Disney isn't just another third party, naturally. I agree that they must be easier to work with than most people think... seeing how Sora was once deemed impossible for this reason. But I do think the "DLC incentive" is the most generous condition that Disney is willing to agree to, personally. I DO think Sora will be back, eventually.
 
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Undella2

Smash Journeyman
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Sep 4, 2018
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269
This is a friendly reminder that Square isn't against cross overs. Or particularly greedy when taking part in them.

They're just buried under more legal red tape than most.
Isn't it moreso the composers/artists/etc. often involved with them than the actual company in and of itself, or am I just misremembering?
 

Swamp Sensei

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Isn't it moreso the composers/artists/etc. often involved with them than the actual company in and of itself, or am I just misremembering?

That is indeed where most of the issues come from. Final Fantasy VII in its entirety has a lot of owners for various parts.
 

Gorgonzales

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That is indeed where most of the issues come from. Final Fantasy VII in its entirety has a lot of owners for various parts.
It still blows my mind how, if we're assuming Nintendo approached him to ask, C418 didn't let any of his Minecraft tracks be remixed/used for Ultimate. That's like the opportunity of a lifetime (aside from getting to compose music for Minecraft itself) and it just didn't happen.

("They're too slow-paced to work" is only a half-truth since the japanese presentation on Steve mentions other complications as well. The Smash team is no stranger to remixing slower tracks to be upbeat, with Halland/Dalarna ironically being the most relevant example of this, along with a plethora of other songs.)
 

Scrimblo Bimblo

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Dec 30, 2023
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2 Final Fantasy
1 Dragon Quest
1 Kingdom Hearts

Which SE series is next of any? Or we just need to conserve what we have and hope they all make it? Are these options mutually exclusive?
C H R O N O T R I G G E R

Nah, next up are probably 2B and Geno. Not sure in which order, but those two anyways.
 

dream1ng

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2,109
I think the only SE characters that will be in base are ones they can pair with a DLC character a la Cloud and Sephiroth.

Which I don't think will be many. Maybe just Cloud. And even then, without EiH, Nintendo might acquiesce to Square's preference for DLC, especially given how much they'd get on the back end of Cloud. Otherwise they give Square a lot of leverage.

One concession I can see Square making in exchange for having most of their characters as later DLC is putting Geno in base. I think they're less invested in him, and I also think he'd bring in a lot less than the Clouds, Heros, Soras, etc. Though it is Square, so Geno as DLC instead is still a real possibility.
 
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ShotoStar

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Sep 3, 2020
Messages
84
Both of which are still effective, even moreso, by selling Sora as DLC again. This puts emphasis on him directly, presumably gives the participating companies more monetary incentive, and brings back a fan favorite character all the same. It just feels like the ideal business move for a savvy company like Disney to maximize as much as they can out of this deal, while still effectively playing ball and keeping their somewhat good will.

Banjo and Steve feel like another situation entirely, to me. Unlike Sora, there is pretty heavy precedent for Banjo being an easy grab for base roster. Microsoft has been providing Nintendo with Rare games on NSO, a service in which they're unlikely to see too much profit from unless Nintendo is paying top dollar for these titles... somewhat unlikely, because the original Banjo-Kazooie, probably the one that would cause the biggest stir, was announced to be coming to NSO in the most nonchalant way possible. Rare got a heavier showcase in that last partner direct, but the conditions in which these games are available is very generous. They could have easily sold all these games independently on the eshop, or through a premium. So I'm willing to agree with the likelihood of Banjo coming back at launch, because Microsoft's recent behavior has favored it... I'm not sure if we have any evidence of Disney operating the same way right now.

And then Steve is Steve. I could see him being DLC, but Banjo / Steve always felt like a comfortable package deal the same way Mega Man / Ryu is to me. And Microsoft feels a bit more desperate to keep its good will among Nintendo fans? So maybe this is more of a personal thing, but I don't see them fighting it too hard as long as Nintendo agrees to add another Microsoft character as DLC soon after - and the options are plentiful.

I think under other conditions Sora would be a lock for base roster. If he was owned by Sega or Capcom this wouldn't even be a question. But Disney isn't just another third party, naturally. I agree that they must be easier to work with than most people think... seeing how Sora was once deemed impossible for this reason. But I do think the "DLC incentive" is the most generous condition that Disney is willing to agree to, personally. I DO think Sora will be back, eventually.
Yeah for sure, I don't see Sora not coming back one way or another. I'm not even entirely convinced that Sora would be a lock for Base Game like say Sonic, Pac-Man, Mega Man and Ryu would but I am convinced he'll appear somewhere throughout the lifespan of the next title. My primary argument was more centered on how overplayed the difficulty of getting Sora is -- which is an argument that people relied on constantly for Sora not making it in at all until he eventually did appear. It's more of a personal hunch that Disney would be more willing to play ball than people realize but the incentive for Sora being DLC is still very strong and I'm definitely not writing that possibility off either.

I do agree that the Microsoft situation is different from the Disney situation because they're different companies so they have different priorities and different stances as to handling their characters. I don't know if I would personally say that Banjo and Steve are a package deal but at the very least they're easier to negotiate with than Disney regardless of how Disney is less difficult than people realize as I think. I genuinely believe the unique circumstances of Rare once being so close to Nintendo enough to function practically as second party will help sway Banjo's chances towards being included in Base Game. Steve may not have that but Minecraft being as big as it is and Steve requiring as much work as he did will also lead to him being included eventually.

My personal take is that Cloud and Sora would be the base game "Square-Enix characters" (associated in Sora's case) because I just sort of see Cloud and Sora -- those two very specifically -- as "too big to go back on" type characters. Once they're included I think they'll be high priorities to be included henceforth. Same with Sonic and Snake in Brawl. Saying that, it definitely hampers my argument because Snake was cut in Smash 4 but I think that was a simple case of bad timing with all the drama surrounding Kojima and Konami as well as perhaps limited resources and/or dev time. Smash as a franchise is so big and such a cashcow nowadays that I don't think the limited resources argument will be nearly as strong as it once was but resources will of course never be unlimited -- there will be an upper cap eventually. In that regards it comes down to "who do Sakurai and co. prioritize?" and to me I think Snake, Sonic, Cloud and Sora have a strong argument for priority. Again, it's mostly just a hunch and instincts of how I feel the dev team would think in these terms so I don't rly have any "proof" to back up my claims
 
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