You're mostly on my wavelength fr, but I do have some criticisms;
- I feel like at least one of Villager and Isabelle is a 100% Lock. Animal Crossing is too big a part of Nintendo now, legit corporate Nintendo prolly wouldn't even allow Sakurai to not include one AC character.
- I think Diddy Kong belongs more in the "might as well be a lock" tier but that's kinda being nitpicky. I feel like that's true of Charizard too, one of the few gaming characters even normies can recognize and we have proof Pokemon Trainer's fate does not affect him.
- I don't see Chrom over Roy. I don't think a echo is gonna get prioritzed over the originator, it doesn't really make sense when you consider how echos are developed. I also don't see all 3 Awakening reps sticking around in a culling, and I'm pretty sure Lucina is the more popular of the two anyways. I'm still mulling it but I'd prolly just swap Lucina and Chrom.
- I also was about to criticize Falco and especially Ike and Lucario being in the second lowest tier, but I realized you cast a pretty wide net up to like 60% for that tier so that's fair enough assuming they're in the upper half. Honestly I realized how thorny that middle ground is when typing out a response so I just checked out lmao. Doing my own version of this is not gonna be fun
The only reason I didn’t have Isabelle and Villager as locks is for the off chance that they decide to only keep one, in which case I can see either being the sole representative. But let’s be real - they’re both coming back.
I don’t think there is a hard rule that an echo can’t be brought back without their original. In the case of Roy and Chrom? Roy has the legacy and Smash popularity, but Chrom has
massive FE popularity and comes from a far more beloved game. I also look at someone like Roy who’s been in three games and Lucina who has been in two and can’t help but feel like it’s worth letting the new guy stick around for a bit, ya know? Especially since he’s the most distinct from Marth between the three.
With Falco, Ike and Lucario it’s just priorities. StarFox doesn’t
need three characters and Wolf feels just as viable as Falco right now. One might have more legacy, but the other just had a major redesign and might be kept around instead thanks to his new surge in popularity. And Pokemon and Fire Emblem are just so vast with so many characters already and many that could still be added, so it becomes tough to decide who to keep when you get down to only like 3-5 reps. Lucario has a lot of aesthetic and representational overlap with Greninja and Mewtwo who both feel like bigger necessities to me and Ike isn’t Marth, nor does he rep Awakening or Three Houses. I see him most likely being
planned for the next game, but I could also envision him getting out prioritized during development.
I'm curious, why does Pac-Man end up a step below Sonic / Mega Man / Ryu? I know you anticipate him coming back regardless, but I'd confidently put him among that pack as a firmly cemented staple third party ambassador. Especially with Smash's established association with Namco at this point.
Cloud and Terry, even though I think they both have a good chance at coming back too, feel like cases where there are slightly more obstacles. I think Cloud is #1 priority for Square Enix too, but they could always opt for Hero instead. And Terry may be deemed a bit lesser priority compared to some other guest characters, although SNK would probably love to get called back on board. I really hope he does return but I'm not quite as confident as you are.
Personally, I'd probably put Simon somewhere around that area of likelihood. Castlevania got it real good in Ultimate, comparable to Mega Man before it.
Sonic and Mega Man feel exceptional for being huge fan requests in the past. Mega Man also has that “honorary Nintendo character” thing going for him, which might not really matter these days, but still feels significant.
Ryu just strikes me as someone Sakurai would never wanna let go of. Having the OG of the genre is a big deal and would feel like a huge loss. (Also I’m crazy confident in Chun-Li’s chances for the next game)
Pac-Man is a damn icon and has the advantage of being owned by Namco, but if push came to shove I don’t think he has
quite the same appeal as those three. People just don’t seem as in love with his implementation with his moveset and representation in Smash being all over the place. I still think he ought to stay, but there’s part of me that thinks “mayyyybe this isn’t a necessity” when I consider how well received so many other third parties are. Do we really wanna prioritize him over Cloud or Simon? Could we not add Lloyd as a new Namco rep in his stead? I don’t know. Like I said, he’s still one of the likeliest third parties, but I have an easier time seeing him left behind.
I have a great feeling about Terry. Sakurai went all in with SNK content and it immediately felt like he was meant to be here. If SNK is as easy to work with as it looks, then I can very well see Terry becoming a mainstay for the series. The people ****ing loved him. He isn’t a necessity, but just a “come on how do we
not bring him back?”
You bring up a good point about Simon and looking at it now I might move him and Bayo up a tier. I really just don’t know what to expect with third parties. Every damn one feels like such a solid inclusion and it’s still hard to think of such unique and iconic characters as “guests.”
Edit: Talking about cuts sucks. I’m gonna make a newcomer prediction list next. That’ll be more fun lol
