Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[RaintheCriminalWhirlwind]

Question for you all! What would be the pros of a character you really hate getting into smash?

 

[GoodGrief741]

However, I’d argue that given the crossover nature of the game, there’s still plenty of top tier gaming industry choices, as opposed to the objective fact that the characters Nintendo has left don’t necessarily stack up.

This is disagree with. Not only do I think that there do exist Nintendo characters that, in terms of hype, could measure up to the big third party characters commonly discussed. But also that their selection so far hasn't been that of a company that's looking for the objectively biggest picks, be that from their own franchises or others'.

 

[Miles of SmashWiki]

This is disagree with. Not only do I think that there do exist Nintendo characters that, in terms of hype, could measure up to the big third party characters commonly discussed. But also that their selection so far hasn't been that of a company that's looking for the objectively biggest picks, be that from their own franchises or others'.

Dragon Quest is the grand-daddy of JRPGs and one of Japan's biggest game franchises period. Minecraft is the best-selling video game in the world. Terry brought along an entire game company's own crossover into the fold. The "reception" section of the Wikipedia article for Persona 5 opens by pointing out that it "has been cited as one of the greatest role-playing games of all time" with five citations.

I fail to see how these are any less than some of the objectively biggest picks available.

Edited in follow-up I forgot to mention: Banjo is the only real exception from the DLC 3rd parties so far, but he's formerly a Nintendo character.

 

[TheCJBrine]

So do you think they would add Waluigi, with an unrelated Mario Kart stage, and music that isn’t centric to Waluigi? Just an assortment of Mario things? Because I don’t. I think these things are thematic, and there is thought put into them.

You can’t deny these things are thematic, and have certain consistencies. Those consistencies help certain characters, and not necessarily others. That’s my point.

Min Min is a mascot/protagonist by Sakurai’s logic, which suggests there’s a reason to look into that in the first place. If that’s a consistency they keep on, that hurts some, but not all characters.

I could absolutely be wrong. I just think to approach it as, “anything can happen” is a bit overly ambitious, especially with what we know. I wouldn’t count Bandanna Waddle Dee, but if you look at what could be a consistency among the rest of the DLC, that doesn’t help Bandanna Dee. If AT’s, Post Game spirits, or costumes aren’t upgrade territory, that doesn’t help those characters.

Just think those things should be kept in mind while talking/speculating. They’re not rules, just things to consider.

The Waluigi Pack:

-NEW CHARACTER: Waluigi

-NEW STAGE: Waluigi's Taco Stand Pinball

-NEW MUSIC: Waluigi Pinball (New Remix), Wario City (Super Sluggers), Destruction Dance (DDR Mario Mix), Wario & Waluigi Court (Mario Tennis N64); various other tracks from spin-offs, all relating to Waluigi and Wario

-NEW SPIRITS: Waluigi (Fighter Spirit), Wario & Waluigi, Waluigi (Tennis), Waluigi (Baseball), Waluigi (Mario Party), Waluigi (Dance Dance Revolution), Waluigi (Victory!), Waluigi (sad because he lost), Waluigi (sore loser (evolves from or into sad)), Waluigi (Assist Trophy)

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

A little slow on the draw here but I figure this is a good PSA so I'll mention it anyway: I don't think it's fair to compare the popularity of first and third party characters, especially not on how continual their popularity has been. First party characters follow a different set of rules for how they're perceived to get in, and while that's still true now, it was a lot more true until pretty recently. For a long time, third party characters needed to be longtime, iconic faces of gaming, and needed to have a strong presence on Nintendo systems to even be considered a possibility.

I would argue this was true up until Joker, because the characters that managed to break that mold all had something that could be considered an "exception:" Snake was a special request, Bayo was "an honorary Nintendo character," Cloud is freakin' Cloud Strife. So if any third party character only got popular recently, it's probably more because no one even thought they were possible than it is "bandwagoning."

I'm saying this from experience too, I bet I'm known as one of the third-party stans around these parts (if I'm known as anything with my post count), but prior to Ult there were very few third party characters I supported and fewer still that I thought were at all possible. Oftentimes I would immediately dismiss any character that wasn't iconic enough, or too recent, or with too weak Nintendo connection. First parties were never really subject to such scrutiny.

Unfortunately, this criteria seems to have been reversed because of Joker; now the first-parties apparently need to prove their worth while the third-parties have more leniency. There's never been a case of both sides being equally possible... unless you count the end of the Smash speculation cycle, obviously.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Question for you all! What would be the pros of a character you really hate getting into smash?

• You don't have to buy them I guess.
• Other people are happy at least.
• Could come with some sick tunes.
• Stage could be fun.
• You wouldn't have to dread them getting in anymore.

Honestly these are pretty much just consolation prizes. At the end of the day it's still something you didn't want, and you have to just move on.

The Waluigi Pack:

-NEW CHARACTER: Waluigi

-NEW STAGE: Waluigi's Taco Stand Pinball

-NEW MUSIC: Waluigi Pinball (New Remix), Wario City (Super Sluggers), Destruction Dance (DDR Mario Mix); various other tracks from spin-offs, all relating to Waluigi and Wario

-NEW SPIRITS: Waluigi (Fighter Spirit), Wario & Waluigi, Waluigi (Tennis), Waluigi (Baseball), Waluigi (Mario Party), Waluigi (Dance Dance Revolution), Waluigi (Victory!), Waluigi (sad because he lost), Waluigi (sore loser (evolves from or into sad)), Waluigi (Assist Trophy)

Classic Mode: Waluigi Time! (All opponents are Waluigi, except for the final opponents, who are Mario and Luigi, but purple)

 

[Lamperouge]

Question for you all! What would be the pros of a character you really hate getting into smash?

Sora could bring some pretty good music with him, I guess.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Unfortunately, this criteria seems to have been reversed because of Joker; now the first-parties apparently need to prove their worth while the third-parties have more leniency. There's never been a case of both sides being equally possible... unless you count the end of the Smash speculation cycle, obviously.

Yeah this is basically what I feel.

We now have the opposite problem.

Too critical of Nintendo characters and not critical enough of third party characters.

It's telling that people are convinced first parties HAVE to be advertising shills to get in at this point.

So much so that the goalposts were moved to fit Min Min in that circle.

 

[Cosmic77]

Dragon Quest is the grand-daddy of JRPGs and one of Japan's biggest game franchises period. Minecraft is the best-selling video game in the world. Terry brought along an entire game company's own crossover into the fold. The "reception" section of the Wikipedia article for Persona 5 opens by pointing out that it "has been cited as one of the greatest role-playing games of all time" with five citations.

I fail to see how these are any less than some of the objectively biggest picks available.

Well, maybe less so for Joker and Terry. Not sure if I'd label either of them as "the biggest picks available".

Minecraft and Dragon Quest are long-running franchises that have had multiple installments and are frequently referenced in media. They've held on to their significant popularity for a long time.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Sora could bring some pretty good music with him, I guess.

He would bring some bomb ass beats

 

[Dinoman96]

Unfortunately, this criteria seems to have been reversed because of Joker; now the first-parties apparently need to prove their worth while the third-parties have more leniency. There's never been a case of both sides being equally possible... unless you count the end of the Smash speculation cycle, obviously.

I mean, personally I think third party characters also have to "prove their worth" as well.

For example, I always thought characters like Travis Touchdown and KOS-MOS just felt "too small" for playable representation in Smash.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Question for you all! What would be the pros of a character you really hate getting into smash?

Memes

memes are always good like if it was Bubsy or Fortnite guy

 

[ThiagoCavalcanteCarvalho]

I am just as sure that Crash, Sora (possibly with Disney characters!), Chrono and Geno will be in the game as I am that this will not be the last character pass.

 

[MooMew64]

Yeah this is basically what I feel.

We now have the opposite problem.

Too critical of Nintendo characters and not critical enough of third party characters.

It's telling that people are convinced first parties HAVE to be advertising shills to get in at this point.

So much so that the goalposts were moved to fit Min Min in that circle.

I don't think the goal posts have been moved for first parties, more that there's clear patterns DLC has followed so far and a lot of first parties don't really fit with the overall theming and structure each challenger pack has brought so far. Outliers can happen, but they haven't really yet: Both Min Min and Byleth fit in with the concepts of advertising and specific franchise pushing quite well.

It's also the case that despite a few exceptions, the first parties we have left just won't turn as many heads as the big third parties will. As much as I adore Byleth and Min Min, their impact on the game overall wasn't nearly as huge as something like Joker, Steve, or even Terry: 3rd parties are just gonna get more eyes at this point. Smash Ultimate is probably the biggest video game crossover right now, and so naturally, a lot of people are gonna wanna see the crossover expand even larger. First parties just don't do that for a lot of people, unfortunately.

 

[I.D.]

When people talk about "top tier game industry choices" surely they are talking about IPs like Fortnite or Monster Hunter and not mid tier stuff like Devil May Cry or Ninja Gaiden, right? Just wanted to clarify that

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Trainers, tune in to The Game Awards tomorrow, December 10, 2020, at 4 p.m. PST! https://t.co/86AUyYLU3A

While you watch, you can enjoy a special event in Pokémon GO! Can we get a “Whoop, whoop”? 🙌 https://t.co/bRFA9Ju66n pic.twitter.com/MH0WTOkiK3

— Pokémon GO (@PokemonGoApp) December 9, 2020

Pokemon GO is having a special event at the Game Awards.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Trainers, tune in to The Game Awards tomorrow, December 10, 2020, at 4 p.m. PST! https://t.co/86AUyYLU3A

While you watch, you can enjoy a special event in Pokémon GO! Can we get a “Whoop, whoop”? 🙌 https://t.co/bRFA9Ju66n pic.twitter.com/MH0WTOkiK3

— Pokémon GO (@PokemonGoApp) December 9, 2020

Pokemon GO is having a special event at the Game Awards.

Whoop whoop? WOOPER CONFIRMED!

For their neutral special, they use Ice Punch!

 

[Perkilator]

Question for you all! What would be the pros of a character you really hate getting into smash?

Besides what was already listed, I can at least feel good knowing I can brutally murder them in more ways than one

 

[MooMew64]

Whoop whoop? WOOPER CONFIRMED!

For their neutral special, they use Ice Punch!

If this isn't their exact reveal trailer, I'm demanding my Fighter Pass 2 money back.

 

[SKX31]

I reel them in with the essays

and then bamboozle with the ****posts!

My power level right now:
View attachment 294676

...Do I want to imagine how much damage a Limit-boosted Oomph Arsene Diamond Levin Buster KO Punch would do on an Inked opponent? While Mario's at max Rage too?

I'm gonna assume that Limit KO Punch works the same as Limit Blade Beam does - projectile that hits 7 times, with the 7th hit launching.

(Pls give him Aura too.)

Trainers, tune in to The Game Awards tomorrow, December 10, 2020, at 4 p.m. PST! https://t.co/86AUyYLU3A

While you watch, you can enjoy a special event in Pokémon GO! Can we get a “Whoop, whoop”? 🙌 https://t.co/bRFA9Ju66n pic.twitter.com/MH0WTOkiK3

— Pokémon GO (@PokemonGoApp) December 9, 2020

Pokemon GO is having a special event at the Game Awards.

Gen 6, I'm presuming.

Unless we're looking at an out-of-nowhere crossover event. In b4 it's with Space Jam 2.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Yeah this is basically what I feel.

We now have the opposite problem.

Too critical of Nintendo characters and not critical enough of third party characters.

It's telling that people are convinced first parties HAVE to be advertising shills to get in at this point.

So much so that the goalposts were moved to fit Min Min in that circle.

I think for some its not so much even a sense that they have to be "shill picks" but more than if they're not characters who's timing didn't line up (Min Min, Byleth) then they probably would have been in the base game if Nintendo/Sakurai wanted them in. Granted there's a lot we don't know about the development and things certainly could have changed, but I can't blame someone who would conclude that the thing that stopped a Bandana Dee or Dixie Kong from getting wasn't the lack of recent game, but more a lack of interest by those making Smash.

 

[Droodle]

Question for you all! What would be the pros of a character you really hate getting into smash?

Jonesy would have the default dance, and also indirectly connect Smash with the John Wick universe for Wholesome 100 Breathtaking BIG CHUNGUS content. That and you gotta be honest, there is a lot of meme potential with Steve, Jonesy, and Sans in the same game.

Jokes aside, I don't really hate Jonesy and I can't really think of any other character I would absolutely hate. I am not really into Fortnite, but for whatever reason I really like Jonesy design (it's just so painfully generic that I actually find it good.)

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I think for some its not so much even a sense that they have to be "shill picks" but more than if they're not characters who's timing didn't line up (Min Min, Byleth) then they probably would have been in the base game if Nintendo/Sakurai wanted them in. Granted there's a lot we don't know about the development and things certainly could have changed, but I can't blame someone who would conclude that the thing that stopped a Bandana Dee or Dixie Kong from getting wasn't the lack of recent game, but more a lack of interest by those making Smash.

What if there isn't a lack of interest in those characters? What if it's just being outprioritized?

There's a simpler explanation that doesnt assume Nintendo thinks their own content is lackluster.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

To be fair, I don’t know that that’s actually what’s happening.

If some folks are taking it as “first parties aren’t good enough” then that may be a misread. In my approach, at the very least, it’s not that first parties can’t be added, it’s more the question of will they?

It’s not unfounded, really. I’m a broken record. DLC picks back to Ryu reflect a focus on “new” things to Smash or Nintendo. First party picks in DLC have either been from a new game (Fire Emblem) or a game that is absent in the playable department and is given a simultaneous push (ARMS). Both of those are similar in goals, even if not exactly the same situation. Not to mention, every pick has been a protagonist from their specific game, coming with clearly differentiated content from anything else in the game. You know Byleth is Fire Emblem, but Three Houses itself differentiates itself from the other content from the same series in the game.

In terms of things being reversed on 3rd parties compared to how things “used to be”...well, consider the situation. The “Nintendo connection” sticking point folks had for quite some time isn’t really all that strong anymore. Folks were literally trying to make Nintendo connections to Cloud (in which Sakurai addressed it specifically) and Persona 5 (a literal PlayStation exclusive game). It’s not as strong as it used to be, if it’s a large part of selection processes anyway.

It should also be noted that support from a series/developer can be jumpstarted by a Smash inclusion. Hypothetically, if Nintendo were interested in getting NieR Automata on Switch, would 2B in Smash not be a great step toward that?

But look at Ultimate for what it is. We have dozens of the most iconic Nintendo characters. Ridley and K.Rool the top biggest (lol) picks of the generation are in. We also have picks like Cloud, Joker, and Banjo in the game. I don’t think it’s that surprising that, outside of the hardcore fanbase, folks want more 3rd parties to cash in with crossovers as opposed to the remaining 1st parties folks focus on.

This probably won’t have the effect it should, based on what folks probably think of my opinions. I appreciate that folks have strong opinions on their most wanted Nintendo characters. But we’re talking supporting characters of series that don’t have the same standing currently as other series.

Would Dixie Kong be a big deal to Nintendo fans? Probably. Would Crash Bandicoot? Probably. Overall? I think Crash has the larger presence in the industry and would be the “bigger” pick holistically because of the crossover power of Mario vs. Sonic vs. Crash and because it’s an inherently new series crossing over.

This doesn’t even include the fact that some folks flat out ignore the strong possibility that highly requested Nintendo characters might not even be in contention. Emphasis on might because I agree that we simply don’t know...we know upgrades can happen based on Min Min, but will it happen again? With Assist Trophies? There’s potential that it does, no doubt. But there’s also the chance that it doesn’t, and that if it does, only one time.

There’s a wider pool of third parties with a wider reach than many first parties have. It doesn’t mean they’re superior to Nintendo picks (which is probably what it seems like I’m saying) it just means that there’s potentially likelihood for the remainder to reflect what we’ve seen in Wii U and now Ultimate, which is 1st party marketing picks and 3rd party protagonists.

Overall I think it’s more of a focus on “new” and themed packs in terms of the Fighter Pass rather than 3rd parties, but I still think we’re in for mostly 3rd parties going forward. I only say that based on what we’ve seen so far.

I’m at a point where I don’t actually care too much about who ends up in the game because I have a massive backlog and have been distracted from Smash as of late. The wait isn’t as painful.

I grew up on Nintendo. I have...way too much Nintendo stuff in my house. I am anything but a Nintendo hater. I simply feel that most of what Nintendo has to offer is largely in the game already, and while other Nintendo series or characters aren’t out of the question, I can see why they would opt for adding 3rd parties over IP or characters that they either are not using actively, or may not have the marketing potential in their eyes.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

What if there isn't a lack of interest in those characters? What if it's just being outprioritized?

There's a simpler explanation that doesnt assume Nintendo thinks their own content is lackluster.

Well lack of interest is all in degrees. It could be that if certain third (or other first) party characters weren't available, then the likes of those two would very much be at the top of the list of inclusion. This isn't a judgment call on Nintendo daring to not use them, just an acknowledgement that thus far (either due to the perceived demand/gameplay potential of other characters) other fighters have seemingly been deemed as more critical for including.

A lot of this is shot in the dark speculation to begin with, realistically we can't entirely assess the nature of Smash picks until the second pass is concluded; merely guess at what's gotten their attention thus far and predict based on what little pattern is there.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I think for some its not so much even a sense that they have to be "shill picks" but more than if they're not characters who's timing didn't line up (Min Min, Byleth) then they probably would have been in the base game if Nintendo/Sakurai wanted them in. Granted there's a lot we don't know about the development and things certainly could have changed, but I can't blame someone who would conclude that the thing that stopped a Bandana Dee or Dixie Kong from getting wasn't the lack of recent game, but more a lack of interest by those making Smash.

Problem with that argument is that due to Everyone Is Here, Smash Ultimate had the least amount of non-Echo Newcomer Fighters compared to previous games so there wasn’t that much room in terms of base newcomers that weren’t echoes.

Melee:

Brawl:

Smash 4:

Ultimate:

 

[JCKirbs]

Jonesy would have the default dance, and also indirectly connect Smash with the John Wick universe for Wholesome 100 Breathtaking BIG CHUNGUS content. That and you gotta be honest, there is a lot of meme potential with Steve, Jonesy, and Sans in the same game.

Jokes aside, I don't really hate Jonesy and I can't really think of any other character I would absolutely hate. I am not really into Fortnite, but for whatever reason I really like Jonesy design (it's just so painfully generic that I actually find it good.)

I'm basically in the same boat.
Heck, if Fortnite somehow does weave its way into Smash, maybe the reveal trailer could be somewhat "charming"?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Too critical of Nintendo characters and not critical enough of third party characters.

I disagree with this...kind of.

I think the general idea is that Nintendo has to get something more out of the deal, or it has to be someone who would sell exceptionally well (i.e. a big name). In the case of Nintendo characters, that means there has to be something going on in their series that Nintendo wants to succeed (ex. promoting the latest Fire Emblem title, or making sure people still care about ARMS). For third party characters, there are more big names due to the larger scope (as well as less characters picked from that pool), and more forgiving reasons that Nintendo would benefit, such as strengthening company ties. I don't think people generally get all that carried away with this either, as it is mostly just big names and companies Nintendo has shown interest in working with.

To be honest, 3rd Parties would probably dominate discussion even without any sort of restrictions on 1st party characters; there are just more of them in general.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Question for you all! What would be the pros of a character you really hate getting into smash?

That the memes would slowly die off as we came to terms with the fact that we're living in the reality of BLANK getting into Smash before BLANK.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

First party picks in DLC have either been from a new game (Fire Emblem) or a game that is absent in the playable department and is given a simultaneous push (ARMS). Both of those are similar in goals, even if not exactly the same situation.

They’re really not. One is advertising an upcoming game based off the strength of the IP, the other is rewarding an already-released game for its success.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

If this isn't their exact reveal trailer, I'm demanding my Fighter Pass 2 money back.

This one would be OK as well.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Problem with that argument is that due to Everyone Is Here, Smash Ultimate had the least amount of non-Echo Newcomer Fighters compared to previous games so there wasn’t that much room in terms of base newcomers that weren’t echoes.

That's the big unknown factor. Are certain first party characters from franchises already prominent in Smash (Dixie, DWD, Impa) fighters almost on the verge of getting in but haven't due to development resources that were focused on the base game (and now other DLC) or are they very much low on the list and would likely not even be included in a hypothetical third fighter's pass? Difficult to say one way or another, and even getting the complete(?) roster at the end of 2021 will only tell us so much.

 

[PeridotGX]

Trainers, tune in to The Game Awards tomorrow, December 10, 2020, at 4 p.m. PST! https://t.co/86AUyYLU3A

While you watch, you can enjoy a special event in Pokémon GO! Can we get a “Whoop, whoop”? 🙌 https://t.co/bRFA9Ju66n pic.twitter.com/MH0WTOkiK3

— Pokémon GO (@PokemonGoApp) December 9, 2020

Pokemon GO is having a special event at the Game Awards.

bold prediction: there's gonna be a brand new Pokemon that appears only in Pokemon Go (for now), like Melmetal.

 

[Ivander]

Question for you all! What would be the pros of a character you really hate getting into smash?

Not so much hate as it is more wanting a lot more other characters to get in, but I guess the possibility of Jonesy coming with some of the better-looking costumes sounds nice. Like the one with the fox mask.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

They’re really not. One is advertising an upcoming game based off the strength of the IP, the other is rewarding an already-released game for its success.

I’m gonna need a source on that one. ARMS was successful, sure. But the player base dropped off immensely from what it once was, and a player demo accompanied the character announcement, as if to...generate interest in the title?

They’re marketing each game no matter how you slice it.

 

[RileyXY1]

bold prediction: there's gonna be a brand new Pokemon that appears only in Pokemon Go (for now), like Melmetal.

That would guarantee that another Let's Go game is coming out next year.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Trainers, tune in to The Game Awards tomorrow, December 10, 2020, at 4 p.m. PST! https://t.co/86AUyYLU3A

While you watch, you can enjoy a special event in Pokémon GO! Can we get a “Whoop, whoop”? 🙌 https://t.co/bRFA9Ju66n pic.twitter.com/MH0WTOkiK3

— Pokémon GO (@PokemonGoApp) December 9, 2020

Pokemon GO is having a special event at the Game Awards.

Speculators: It's a Smash hint!

 

[Dinoman96]

Problem with that argument is that due to Everyone Is Here, Smash Ultimate had the least amount of non-Echo Newcomer Fighters compared to previous games so there wasn’t that much room in terms of base newcomers that weren’t echoes.

Melee:

Brawl:

Smash 4:

Ultimate:

Just for fun, I took out any clone/deriative characters, leaving only the fully unique characters from each game.

And yeah, Ultimate had only five 100% unique newcomers that weren't cripped from other fighters. Isabelle is listed as one of the six "non-echo fighters" and even she's just as unique as Ken is, as they're both semi-clones.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I’m gonna need a source on that one. ARMS was successful, sure. But the player base dropped off immensely from what it once was, and a player demo accompanied the character announcement, as if to...generate interest in the title?

They’re marketing each game no matter how you slice it.

Remember what I said about goal posts?

This is the stuff that annoys me.

 

[PeridotGX]

That would guarantee that another Let's Go game is coming out next year.

...not really? Because Meltan released with Let's Go doesn't mean the next one will.