Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[PacificFun]

To get back on topic with Smash stuff- question for some of you.

I recently watched a Delzethin video where he goes over potential Challenger Pack 8 picks. The “likely” picks were essentially the same as they always are, being BWD, Lloyd Irving, Geno, Rex and Pyra, Sora, Ryu Hayabusa.

Then, Crash, Dante, Master Chief, Doomslayer, and Monster Hunter were put into “red herrings”.In other words, “people think they’re happening but no”.

Here’s my beef with the video. Bandanna Waddle Dee is propped up on a basis of, “What if there’s a new game on Switch?” and “He’s a popular request!”...which is also a reason folks use for Crash, Dante, and Monster Hunter.

The Red Herring concept is also used to say, “People talk a lot about them so they’re probably not that likely/ happening”. But if that’s the case, why is it characterized as “long term/highly popular fan want” for the characters he chooses, especially like Hayabusa (who I also agree is likely)? Hayabusa has been in more fake leaks than I can count on hands and feet!

I think some points are good, but seemingly inconsistent. If reasoning supports one character, how does that same reasoning not support another? While it’s not objectively a bad thing, there’s usually a Nintendo-centric bias in these videos so I can see where certain characters end up where they are... if it were a wishlist. But it’s meant as a speculative piece, and slants toward the “Nintendo connection” narrative, which I don’t think has enough of a foundation this time around in DLC.

What are some thoughts here? I’m not nearly as invested in speculation lately but I still am interested in who gets in. Curious to see what others think!

I really can't see Nintendo characters getting put in if they're not advertising anything to be honest.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

To get back on topic with Smash stuff- question for some of you.

I recently watched a Delzethin video where he goes over potential Challenger Pack 8 picks. The “likely” picks were essentially the same as they always are, being BWD, Lloyd Irving, Geno, Rex and Pyra, Sora, Ryu Hayabusa.

Then, Crash, Dante, Master Chief, Doomslayer, and Monster Hunter were put into “red herrings”.In other words, “people think they’re happening but no”.

Here’s my beef with the video. Bandanna Waddle Dee is propped up on a basis of, “What if there’s a new game on Switch?” and “He’s a popular request!”...which is also a reason folks use for Crash, Dante, and Monster Hunter.

The Red Herring concept is also used to say, “People talk a lot about them so they’re probably not that likely/ happening”. But if that’s the case, why is it characterized as “long term/highly popular fan want” for the characters he chooses, especially like Hayabusa (who I also agree is likely)? Hayabusa has been in more fake leaks than I can count on hands and feet!

I think some points are good, but seemingly inconsistent. If reasoning supports one character, how does that same reasoning not support another? While it’s not objectively a bad thing, there’s usually a Nintendo-centric bias in these videos so I can see where certain characters end up where they are... if it were a wishlist. But it’s meant as a speculative piece, and slants toward the “Nintendo connection” narrative, which I don’t think has enough of a foundation this time around in DLC.

What are some thoughts here? I’m not nearly as invested in speculation lately but I still am interested in who gets in. Curious to see what others think!

This is pretty much a detailed explanation from what I meant yesterday cause it's so blatantly biased and hypocritical like any other rando who can ramble long enough to get extra ad revenue

 

[SharkLord]

Delzethin may be biased towards Nintendo characters in terms of speculated chances, but there are just as many biased towards third-parties seeing as only one Nintendo character (Rex) is ranked within the top 10 most likely on RTC despite Min Min being the first DLC pack, as if only one Nintendo character has a plausible chance of being in said pass. No-one is free from bias, including you.

To be fair it's not like everyone regularly goes on RTC. Obviously, there's some degree of bias in everything, but I'd like to point that out.

 

[chocolatejr9]

To get back on topic with Smash stuff- question for some of you.

I recently watched a Delzethin video where he goes over potential Challenger Pack 8 picks. The “likely” picks were essentially the same as they always are, being BWD, Lloyd Irving, Geno, Rex and Pyra, Sora, Ryu Hayabusa.

Then, Crash, Dante, Master Chief, Doomslayer, and Monster Hunter were put into “red herrings”.In other words, “people think they’re happening but no”.

Here’s my beef with the video. Bandanna Waddle Dee is propped up on a basis of, “What if there’s a new game on Switch?” and “He’s a popular request!”...which is also a reason folks use for Crash, Dante, and Monster Hunter.

The Red Herring concept is also used to say, “People talk a lot about them so they’re probably not that likely/ happening”. But if that’s the case, why is it characterized as “long term/highly popular fan want” for the characters he chooses, especially like Hayabusa (who I also agree is likely)? Hayabusa has been in more fake leaks than I can count on hands and feet!

I think some points are good, but seemingly inconsistent. If reasoning supports one character, how does that same reasoning not support another? While it’s not objectively a bad thing, there’s usually a Nintendo-centric bias in these videos so I can see where certain characters end up where they are... if it were a wishlist. But it’s meant as a speculative piece, and slants toward the “Nintendo connection” narrative, which I don’t think has enough of a foundation this time around in DLC.

What are some thoughts here? I’m not nearly as invested in speculation lately but I still am interested in who gets in. Curious to see what others think!

While I don't know any specifics, I think Dante being counted as a "Red Herring" is largely due to the... suddenness of his support. As far as I'm aware, Dante wasn't THAT popular of a request until Ultimate, and even then it was largely due to DMC finally coming to Nintendo consoles. Now obviously, having ANY Nintendo connection is an automatic plus, but compared to other franchises, it's still fairly new to the scene.

That being said, I know nothing about DMC, so I could be wrong on some things.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I really can't see Nintendo characters getting put in if they're not advertising anything to be honest.

There are so many characters that makes more sense from that perspective than a character from a game that was 3 years old .

 

[7NATOR]

There are so many characters that makes more sense from that perspective than a character from a game that was 3 years old .

I would say Min-Min is advertising the ARMS as a Franchise more than as a Game itself. they did reveal the free game trial when the announced ARMS in Smash because they want people to pay attention to ARMS from now on.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Delzethin may be biased towards Nintendo characters in terms of speculated chances, but there are just as many biased towards third-parties seeing as only one Nintendo character (Rex) is ranked within the top 10 most likely on RTC despite Min Min being the first DLC pack, as if only one Nintendo character has a plausible chance of being in said pass. No-one is free from bias, including you.

Min Min being the first pick does not necessarily indicate we will get more 1st parties, just as it was a mistake to assume Joker indicated we would get all 3rd parties rather than series/games that are “new to Smash”.

I personally feel it has far less to do with what company they come from as opposed to each pack holistically bringing something new.

However, that wasn’t my point. My point is that if reasoning is going to be used to support favored picks, while the same reasoning is used to discount other picks, then that’s inconsistent and isn’t exactly logical. Either it helps all picks it applies to or it doesn’t.

Would I prefer certain picks? Yes. But people can still have the ability to be as objective as possible when trying to make a case for something.

Lastly, I didn’t say anything about RTC (which is a real bad thread to gauge likelihood imho), but that seems like whataboutism, if I’m being honest. I was speaking to that video specifically, not people in the RTC thread.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

While I don't know any specifics, I think Dante being counted as a "Red Herring" is largely due to the... suddenness of his support. As far as I'm aware, Dante wasn't THAT popular of a request until Ultimate, and even then it was largely due to DMC finally coming to Nintendo consoles. Now obviously, having ANY Nintendo connection is an automatic plus, but compared to other franchises, it's still fairly new to the scene.

That being said, I know nothing about DMC, so I could be wrong on some things.

I could be wrong, but Dante has always just kinda...been there. Never really huge until recently, but I’d argue that may have been due to “bigger” 3rd parties not being in. For quite some time, Phoenix Wright was seen as the “Capcom” pick after Mega Man. With how the “Nintendo connection” narrative seems to have little to it, that has opened the door to other picks, where is how I think picks like Dante have garnered more attention.

As I said, I could be completely wrong though.

EDIT: Oof, double post. Off to the sin bin for me

 

[Cutie Gwen]

While I don't know any specifics, I think Dante being counted as a "Red Herring" is largely due to the... suddenness of his support. As far as I'm aware, Dante wasn't THAT popular of a request until Ultimate, and even then it was largely due to DMC finally coming to Nintendo consoles. Now obviously, having ANY Nintendo connection is an automatic plus, but compared to other franchises, it's still fairly new to the scene.

That being said, I know nothing about DMC, so I could be wrong on some things.

Dante support started in Smash 4 after Cloud iirc due to Cloud's only Nintendo appearances being cameos with Sakurai saying cameos counted, which would also fit with Dante. Bayo helped due to the overlap of the Bayonetta and DMC fanbases, but Dante support really kicked off due to a fake follow up to a legitimate DMCV leak that claimed Dante would happen, it got a lot of people talking about Dante and at that point something clicked with many, that thing being "Hey Dante's a legitimate contender and he'd be sick". The ports were announced after Itsuno, the series director from 2 onward, outright acknowledged Dante's newfound Smash demand. You're partially right in that sense though as again, people didn't really consider the possibility until the rumours came up.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I would say Min-Min is advertising the ARMS as a Franchise more than as a Game itself. they did reveal the free game trial when the announced ARMS in Smash because they want people to pay attention to ARMS from now on.

By that argument, any Nintendo character from a franchise with a clear future could be used as an “advertisement character”. No actual advertisement character got in because their franchise needed the advertisement, but because further promotion of an already recently successful franchise makes business sense. In that regard, even if a hypothetical Golden Sun remake was to be announced, Dixie Kong and Bandana Dee would be more likely to be picked by Nintendo to promote their franchises than Isaac even though Golden Sun has no playable representation and the former two franchises have 3. (Isaac still could make it in as a “fan-demand” character)

 

[7NATOR]

Also there is a Thought I Had on First Parties

Considering that in Base Rosters, Most of the Newcomers are First Party characters, with a Minority of the Newcomers being 3rd party, I had the thought that perhaps 1st Party might be less of a Priority in DLC since the 1st Party characters can be used to Sell the Next Smash

I Know Sakurai said he wasn't focusing or thinking about the Next Game, and focused on this DLC...But I can't naturally buy that since he's also talked about how Ultimate might not happen again. I will at least say that he's had thoughts of what the next game will entail.

So Characters like Bandana Dee, Waluigi, Isaac, Dixie Kong, Skull Kid, among others are characters people want to see. These characters are Nintendo Owned so Nintendo doesn't have to pay extra Premium for these characters, There's probably a thought to save some of these for the next game so Nintendo can pay less Premium on the Base Game royalties and such, and don't have to rely heavily on 3rd party Characters to sell the Base game, with all the Premium costs attached to them

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I think one note to be taken with “being a popular pick” hasn’t exactly panned out anyway.

If the point is that, “Crash and Dante don’t have the same support as others!”, then I don’t think that’s the point folks want it to be.

Joker, Terry Bogard, Hero (in the west) and Byleth had very little support prior to reveal, which suggests that popularity isn’t necessarily as intrinsic to addition.

Certainly, I think Crash and Dante are among the most discussed and “hyped” 3rd party picks. Sora is there, but I think has plenty of doubters because of Disney. Hayabusa is also around because he’s Hayabusa. I think they’re all in the mix.

If I had to say which I felt strongest about, I’d honestly say Hayabusa, especially with that Ninja Gaiden listing recently. Could be his time to shine!

 

[PacificFun]

There are so many characters that makes more sense from that perspective than a character from a game that was 3 years old .

They want to push ARMS. That's why there was a demo to coincide with the "reveal". ARMS isn't going anywhere and sold solidly for a weird ass fighting game.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Min Min being the first pick does not necessarily indicate we will get more 1st parties, just as it was a mistake to assume Joker indicated we would get all 3rd parties rather than series/games that are “new to Smash”.

ARMS is literally not new to Smash. It already crossed over with Smash and brings the least amount of new stuff compared to previous packs.

They want to push ARMS.

And you don’t think there is a strong possibility that there are other properties they own that Nintendo would want to push? Besides, that fact was something people could only figure with hindsight

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

ARMS is literally not new to Smash. It already crossed over with Smash and brings the least amount of new stuff compared to previous packs.

Did ARMS have a playable character, stage, and music before Min Min?

If it fits the fighter pass model, and doesn’t have those things already, it certainly counts as “new” to Smash in that regard. You can do Rex, XC2 stage, and additional XC2 music. You could do Pokémon Sword & Shield. You could arguably do Kirby with BWD, but I’m not as convinced of that one based on the consistency of the series/game coming with a mascot/protagonist for DLC. But I could absolutely be wrong.

We can argue semantics, but it’s pretty clear that certain situations fit the Fighter Pass model more, or better, than others.

 

[PacificFun]

By that argument, any Nintendo character from a franchise with a clear future could be used as an “advertisement character”. No actual advertisement character got in because their franchise needed the advertisement, but because further promotion of an already recently successful franchise makes business sense. In that regard, even if a hypothetical Golden Sun remake was to be announced, Dixie Kong and Bandana Dee would be more likely to be picked by Nintendo to promote their franchises than Isaac even though Golden Sun has no playable representation and the former two franchises have 3. (Isaac still could make it in as a “fan-demand” character)

Byleth would like to have a word with you.

 

[PacificFun]

ARMS is literally not new to Smash. It already crossed over with Smash and brings the least amount of new stuff compared to previous packs.




And you don’t think there is a strong possibility that there are other properties they own that Nintendo would want to push? Besides, that fact was something people could only figure with hindsight

What other major Switch born IP could Nintendo hypothetically push outside of Astral Chain?

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Byleth would like to have a word with you.

Fire Emblem Heroes, Fire Emblem Fates, Fire Emblem Warriors and Shadows of Valentia were all successful, ensuring the future of Fire Emblem.

What other major Switch born IP could Nintendo hypothetically push outside of Astral Chain?

Who says it has to be a Switch-born IP?

 

[PacificFun]

Fire Emblem Heroes, Fire Emblem Fates, Fire Emblem Warriors and Shadows of Valentia were all successful, ensuring the future of Fire Emblem.

But Fire Emblem operates like Final Fantasy, with a rotating cast. Three Houses wasn't a surefire success with its new cast.

 

[GoodGrief741]

What other major Switch born IP could Nintendo hypothetically push outside of Astral Chain?

Wait, now only IPs that started on the Switch can get a character?

 

[PacificFun]

Wait, now only IPs that started on the Switch can get a character?

No, but doesn't that make more sense from a business standpoint?

 

[SharkLord]

To get back on topic with Smash stuff- question for some of you.

I recently watched a Delzethin video where he goes over potential Challenger Pack 8 picks. The “likely” picks were essentially the same as they always are, being BWD, Lloyd Irving, Geno, Rex and Pyra, Sora, Ryu Hayabusa.

Then, Crash, Dante, Master Chief, Doomslayer, and Monster Hunter were put into “red herrings”.In other words, “people think they’re happening but no”.

Here’s my beef with the video. Bandanna Waddle Dee is propped up on a basis of, “What if there’s a new game on Switch?” and “He’s a popular request!”...which is also a reason folks use for Crash, Dante, and Monster Hunter.

The Red Herring concept is also used to say, “People talk a lot about them so they’re probably not that likely/ happening”. But if that’s the case, why is it characterized as “long term/highly popular fan want” for the characters he chooses, especially like Hayabusa (who I also agree is likely)? Hayabusa has been in more fake leaks than I can count on hands and feet!

I think some points are good, but seemingly inconsistent. If reasoning supports one character, how does that same reasoning not support another? While it’s not objectively a bad thing, there’s usually a Nintendo-centric bias in these videos so I can see where certain characters end up where they are... if it were a wishlist. But it’s meant as a speculative piece, and slants toward the “Nintendo connection” narrative, which I don’t think has enough of a foundation this time around in DLC.

What are some thoughts here? I’m not nearly as invested in speculation lately but I still am interested in who gets in. Curious to see what others think!

I think we need a video for underdogs, darkhorses, and overlooked characters for once, instead of just the same old CRASH HAYABUSA DOOMGUY GENO SORA REX POKEMON CRASH that we already know about.

As for my personal predictions:

• Only two characters who are regularly speculated will get in. Smash has a history of throwing curveballs that don't line up with our predictions. It's not that we're inherently wrong; It's just that we don't work at Nintendo and don't know exactly what they're looking for. That being said, there's definitely reasons we've been focusing on these character, so we can't just throw them to the wind just because "Smash fans are never right" or whatever.
• Going off of the above, this means we'd end up with two unexpected picks. Depending on which circles we're in, this means the ratio of expected characters and left-fielders would either be 2:4 or an even 3:3, which sounds pretty reasonable in my opinion.
• While I don't think lack of Nintendo connection is too much of a barricade if the company that owns them is willing and reachable, based on past precedent I think we'll only get one more character distanced from Nintendo, maybe a second if we're lucky.
• We'll get Isaac at least one more first-party character. Based on previous DLC favoring third-parties for new content, I'm thinking we'll either get only one more Nintendo character or a 50-50 split.
• I still believe we'll get an indie rep. Steve in Smash is a win for indies, but he's a Microsoft character now and indies weren't mentioned in his overview. Given how friendly Nintendo is with indies, I'm expecting a character who represents indies specifically. Currently, my money's on either Reimu or Shovel Knight. The Knight or Madeline could also happen, but they're not my first picks. I would consider Quote too, but apparently Nicalis has a history of outright ghosting collaborators, so...
• One character will be a fan-favorite who mainly got in through requests, like King K. Rool or Banjo and Kazooie. Resurgence is optional. Currently I'm leaning Isaac. Geno could happen too, but he has more stacked against him.

 

[7NATOR]

Byleth would like to have a word with you.

Byleth fits what he's talking about though

Fire Emblem has been a Successful franchise since Awakening. That's probably why Fire Emblem keeps getting DLC Fighters (and also that they just happened to be on time for DLC Decisions)

I've had this thought too when it comes to Isaac, especially when it comes to Geno vs Isaac, since initially I thought that Isaac being around the same popularity of Geno, while also being first party and a New Franchise gave him an edge

But Golden Sun itself is Dead at the moment. Even if they bring it back via a Remake, it's unknown how successful the return will be, there is no Background data on How Well Golden sun will perfrom

Geno is Attached to the Mario Franchise, which is Nintendo's Mascot. If they decide to Re-release SMRPG, cause they know people buy anything Mario related, they have background data on it and such, unlike with Golden Sun

and the Rotating Cast thing I don't think plays into it. It's still connected to the Fire Emblem franchise.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I still believe we'll get an indie rep. Steve in Smash is a win for indies, but he's a Microsoft character now and indies weren't mentioned in his overview. Given how friendly Nintendo is with indies, I'm expecting a character who represents indies specifically. Currently, my money's on either Reimu or Shovel Knight. The Knight or Madeline could also happen, but they're not my first picks. I would consider Quote too, but apparently Nicalis has a history of outright ghosting collaborators, so...

If that's the case, Reimu or Shantae is the most likely pick.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I think we need a video for underdogs, darkhorses, and overlooked characters for once, instead of just the same old CRASH HAYABUSA DOOMGUY GENO SORA REX POKEMON CRASH that we already know about.

As for my personal predictions:

• Only two characters who are regularly speculated will get in. Smash has a history of throwing curveballs that don't line up with our predictions. It's not that we're inherently wrong; It's just that we don't work at Nintendo and don't know exactly what they're looking for. That being said, there's definitely reasons we've been focusing on these character, so we can't just throw them to the wind just because "Smash fans are never right" or whatever.
• Going off of the above, this means we'd end up with two unexpected picks. Depending on which circles we're in, this means the ratio of expected characters and left-fielders would either be 2:4 or an even 3:3, which sounds pretty reasonable in my opinion.
• While I don't think lack of Nintendo connection is too much of a barricade if the company that owns them is willing and reachable, based on past precedent I think we'll only get one more character distanced from Nintendo, maybe a second if we're lucky.
• We'll get Isaac at least one more first-party character. Based on previous DLC favoring third-parties for new content, I'm thinking we'll either get only one more Nintendo character or a 50-50 split.
• I still believe we'll get an indie rep. Steve in Smash is a win for indies, but he's a Microsoft character now and indies weren't mentioned in his overview. Given how friendly Nintendo is with indies, I'm expecting a character who represents indies specifically. Currently, my money's on either Reimu or Shovel Knight. The Knight or Madeline could also happen, but they're not my first picks. I would consider Quote too, but apparently Nicalis has a history of outright ghosting collaborators, so...
• One character will be a fan-favorite who mainly got in through requests, like King K. Rool or Banjo and Kazooie. Resurgence is optional. Currently I'm leaning Isaac. Geno could happen too, but he has more stacked against him.

PREACH IT! I too am tired of the same old ad nauseam picks and would like to see something fresh and unexpected. Much like how Terry, Byleth, Min Min and Steve were.

I agree with all these points btw

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Did ARMS have a playable character, stage, and music before Min Min?

If it fits the fighter pass model, it certainly counts as “new” to Smash in that regard.

We can argue semantics, but it’s pretty clear that certain situations fit the Fighter Pass model more, or better, than others.

This is just goal-post moving. If it already exists, then it is not new to Smash period. Anything can fit the Fighter Pass model especially since it is more about selling the characters than anything else. Characters don’t get chosen based on how easy it is to fill up spirits, stages and music. It is the other way round with characters getting chosen first, then the rest of the content is decided. A character like Dixie Kong is not less likely to be decided by Nintendo for this arbitrary reasoning.

If you have to change the argument of “new to Smash” to something very specific to still fit the narrative and act like Min Min and Byleth could still fit the same definition of “New to Smash”, a definition that was never implied by Nintendo, then that argument simply doesn’t work.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

My predictions since I don't know who the rest could be and Sakurai is an unpredictable madman.

We're at least getting one more big hitter (Crash, Dante, Geno, Sora, etc.).

One more 1st party. Leaning towards Rex in this case.

A character around the lines of Terry.

A surprise reveal/"Sakurai pick"

Final prediction. Throwing the bone in.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I think we need a video for underdogs, darkhorses, and overlooked characters for once

This is ironic because I've seen so many people, Delzethin included, try marking their frequently parroted requests are underdogs. Like, no, just because that Pokemon is a dog doesn't mean it's an underdog


Also I like how we got a first party vs third party debate when the initial point was "It's hypocritical to claim X is why Y is likely, but X is also why Z isn't happening"

 

[GoodGrief741]

What if they were to set fanwork guidelines/rights/whatever in a EULA or something, though? Or would courts still ask "please prove how doing this would hurt/infringe upon your brand?"

(I mean, I guess they would, and idk if "our family-friendly market could see it and be bothered/confuse it for us, and stop paying for our products" probably isn't a good answer; I just know Hololive has fan guidelines for the vtuber characters, idk how this stuff works in a legal sense unless they're able to protect certain restrictions under copyright law, and it seems other companies have policies for fan content as well; Epic Games states fan content must be appropriate for the audience of their IP, which sounds like something Nintendo could do to prevent the situation you stated with the very mature Pokémon game)

I guess they could, though it's not standard practice at all for game studios afaik. And really, crafting a EULA that covers everything that can and can't be done with a game would require a tremendous amount of foresight and very precise language that might simply not be worth the effort putting together.

No, but doesn't that make more sense from a business standpoint?

Not really? Nintendo wants all of their games to sell, it doesn't matter whether it's Mario 800, Custom Robo 5, Arms 2 or New IP Game 1.

 

[PacificFun]

Still gonna hold out hope for Lara Croft. That'd be an insane TGA reveal.

And I feel like people will still be shocked because she's just not talked about a lot.

Gimme the m o n e y

 

[7NATOR]

Actually though since Shantae was mentioned, I just had a New theory I came up with on the Fly

When it comes to ARMS in Smash, One thing I found odd was that While Min-Min and Ninjara was mentioned as potential Options, Twintelle was not mentioned at all

It's weird because unlike Spring Man and Ribbon Girl, Twintelle doesn't have an Assist or Mii Costume. She was just a Spirit in the Same vain as Ninjara and Min-Min.

Twintelle is a Really Popular Character, and that Popularity probably was a Reason she was one of 5 ARMS Spirits in the base game. The Party Crash base could have played a Role, since Min-Min and Ninjara were first and 2nd, but I think there's possibility these decisions were even earlier than when that happened

What if Twintelle was not considered because Shantae was an Option on the table. She uses her Hair Heavily like Twintelle does. I think it would be kind of weird since The Base game implied Shantae's Spirit inclusion was Last Minute and she wasn't on Nintendo's Radar, But I Don't know

 

[PacificFun]

I guess they could, though it's not standard practice at all for game studios afaik. And really, crafting a EULA that covers everything that can and can't be done with a game would require a tremendous amount of foresight and very precise language that might simply not be worth the effort putting together.

Not really? Nintendo wants all of their games to sell, it doesn't matter whether it's Mario 800, Custom Robo 5, Arms 2 or New IP Game 1.

But why would you advertise Custom Robo if I can't play it on your newest console? Mind you if this was the base game, I wouldn't be saying this. Now, if we do get someone akin to Dixie or Issac, I will gladly eat my words.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Also I like how we got a first party vs third party debate when the initial point was "It's hypocritical to claim X is why Y is likely, but X is also why Z isn't happening"

That post you’re referring to literally talked about “Nintendo-centric bias”. That conversation did not come out of nowhere.

 

[BlondeLombax]

I’m the same as ever; cautiously optimistic for some of my top picks, but still accepting of anybody who gets into the game, regardless of who they are.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Thisis just goal-post moving. If it already exists, then it is not new to Smash period. Anything can fit the Fighter Pass model especially since it is more about selling the characters than anything else. Characters don’t get chosen based on how easy it is to fill up spirits, stages and music. It is the other way round with characters getting chosen first, then the rest of the content is decided. A character like Dixie Kong is not less likely to be decided by Nintendo for this arbitrary reasoning.

So do you think they would add Waluigi, with an unrelated Mario Kart stage, and music that isn’t centric to Waluigi? Just an assortment of Mario things? Because I don’t. I think these things are thematic, and there is thought put into them.

You can’t deny these things are thematic, and have certain consistencies. Those consistencies help certain characters, and not necessarily others. That’s my point.

Min Min is a mascot/protagonist by Sakurai’s logic, which suggests there’s a reason to look into that in the first place. If that’s a consistency they keep on, that hurts some, but not all characters.

I could absolutely be wrong. I just think to approach it as, “anything can happen” is a bit overly ambitious, especially with what we know. I wouldn’t count Bandanna Waddle Dee out for example, but if you look at what could be a consistency among the rest of the DLC, that doesn’t help Bandanna Dee. If AT’s, Post Game spirits, or costumes aren’t upgrade territory, that doesn’t help those characters.

Just think those things should be kept in mind while talking/speculating. They’re not rules, just things to consider.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

That post you’re referring to literally talked about “Nintendo-centric bias”. That conversation did not come out of nowhere.

That wasn't the core of the post though, it was that it's hypocritical to say "People talk about this character a lot therefore the character is likely, this other character people talk a lot about is unlikely because they're talked about though". If it was the other way around, the message wouldn't change

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

That post you’re referring to literally talked about “Nintendo-centric bias”. That conversation did not come out of nowhere.

The reason that was brought up was because the person in question favored Nintendo-centric choices over those that were not, despite using the same reasoning two different ways...positively for their preferred pick, negatively for one they didn’t.

That takes credibility away from the argument. If it’s inconsistent, it’s probably not strong.

Back to the sin bin for me, ANOTHER double post I think.

nevermind

 

[True Blue Warrior]

That wasn't the core of the post though, it was that it's hypocritical to say "People talk about this character a lot therefore the character is likely, this other character people talk a lot about is unlikely because they're talked about though". If it was the other way around, the message wouldn't change

Fair enough. Though honestly is Bandana Dee really that talked about much in comparison to other characters?

 

[cashregister9]

• I still believe we'll get an indie rep. Steve in Smash is a win for indies, but he's a Microsoft character now and indies weren't mentioned in his overview. Given how friendly Nintendo is with indies, I'm expecting a character who represents indies specifically. Currently, my money's on either Reimu or Shovel Knight. The Knight or Madeline could also happen, but they're not my first picks. I would consider Quote too, but apparently Nicalis has a history of outright ghosting collaborators, so...

I still think Frisk will be our first Indie rep, I'm not sure if it would be this pass or a future game but I do believe that Undertale will be the first Indie to get a playable character (or at least one of the first)

Reasons why I think they are mostly out of the count but I'm not completely ignoring:
-No Spirits, Cuphead got them almost immediately after the costume
-Sans came with 1 song and it released before the pass was finalized, The pass was finalized around November which was after the sans costume, Maybe it made enough money to get the interest of Nintendo, and 1 song being locked behind a 75c paywall is not that big of a deal, there are 3 other versions of Megalovania they could choose for a main pack.

again I don't think it is happening but I will keep my on the possibility of a potential Undertale character

 

[True Blue Warrior]

So do you think they would add Waluigi, with an unrelated Mario Kart stage, and music that isn’t centric to Waluigi? Just an assortment of Mario things? Because I don’t. I think these things are thematic, and there is thought put into them.

You can’t deny these things are thematic, and have certain consistencies. Those consistencies help certain characters, and not necessarily others. That’s my point.

Min Min is a mascot/protagonist by Sakurai’s logic, which suggests there’s a reason to look into that in the first place. If that’s a consistency they keep on, that hurts some, but not all characters.

I could absolutely be wrong. I just think to approach it as, “anything can happen” is a bit overly ambitious, especially with what we know. I wouldn’t count Bandanna Waddle Dee, but if you look at what could be a consistency among the rest of the DLC, that doesn’t help Bandanna Dee. If AT’s, Post Game spirits, or costumes aren’t upgrade territory, that doesn’t help those characters.

Just think those things should be kept in mind while talking/speculating. They’re not rules, just things to consider.

Yes, I honestly do believe if Nintendo hypothetically decided on Waluigi, they would include stuff that is unrelated to him to fill the pack. Spring Stadium isn’t even associated with Min Min and Ramen Bowl would make more sense as her stage, which seems to suggest this possibility.