Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Rie Sonomura]

also that Fortnite thing is gonna amount to a Spirit Event, bookmark this so you can quote it when it happens

this is obviously not my huge ass prediction list, that will come later

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

Lastly, suggesting that Sephiroth getting revealed now is a positive for first parties is...what? How does Sephiroth help any one character or archetype of character? He’s Sephiroth! Trying to put this into specific characters or types of characters benefiting, I think, is a major stretch.

I'm pretty sure the logic is that Sephiroth isn't the main character for his game, which shows that other characters who aren't the main character have a shot, and that's basically what's left for first party characters. So it's less first party specifically being helped out, and more that secondary characters as a whole are helped.

I don't think it's a great boost, or even one that's going to pan out, but I see the logic. That said, it all falls flat if Sephiroth was a consolation prize for not getting Sora or if he was part of the deal to get Cloud back, since it would mean he wasn't chosen in the same sense as the rest of the DLC.

 

[pupNapoleon]

I think a third pass is pretty much impossible to discuss at the moment. There is no evidence for or against it going one way or the other, and we've got a lot on our plate to think about as it is.

That's not true.

Points for it:

• Money for Nintendo
• Promotion for Nintendo
• Sakurai revering gaming, and likely reveling in working with so many characters

Points against it:
- I had a few but i had to search hard

Also. This is no more difficult of a question than discussing the next character...

 

[Lamperouge]

I don't think I'd have it in me to continue speculating if we somehow get a third pass lol.

 

[ZelDan]

Quite frankly I'm bothered by all the "it's all downhill after Steve/Sephiroth!" stuff, implying that any character that isn't as "big" or is from a series that hasn't raked in as many sales as them must therefore make them a bad pick or completely devoid of any sort of value or merit.

Niche or smaller characters/franchises can bring value to Smash and be cool too.

 

[7NATOR]

Until we get pass 3.
I wish I could have gotten that conversation to catch on. The pros and cons one. And why it is logically incredibly likely.

... maybe I'm a robot. I think I'm a robot.
Or Abed from Community. I do relate to most things to TV...

Okay great. Now I'm paranoid this is derailing again. Maybe this is a tumor. **** it. Let's play Smash, someone? I wanna test out my PP, Banjo, and KR.

Fighter Pass 3...

I think that is an interesting Discussion. I think Pass 3 was actually in the Cards at some point.

If you look at the amount of WOL Spots that were available with the Plant update, there were 16 With Plant taking up one Spot. 15 Would add up 3 Fighter Passes if we are using the number of Characters from Fighter Pass 1 (5). There's also the Fact that the Fighter CSS holds up to 90 slots, or 4 More after FP2, which equates to the Same number in total as the WOL Spots

I think this might add to CP11 being some type of bonus character, In that they might have been Planned for a Hypothetical Fighter Pass 3, but when it was confirmed we only get 2 Fighter Passes, They were added as CP11

Steve is known to have been in Planning for 5 years, and Sephiroth is likely to be in the Same Situation. There's also a Case to make for Min-Min as well, though that one might be more shaky.


I do think that since Sakurai said that Development on Smash Ultimate would be over (which is a stronger choice of words than when he refereed to a Hypothetical 2nd Pass after FP1) that a FP3 might not be a thing. I think it's possible that they might want to save that effort for some type of Smash Ultimate Deluxe or something, maybe to sell the New Switch

 

[Cosmic77]

I do think first-parties have the advantage in the sense that Nintendo and Sakurai usually show off their most exciting characters first. There's also only one more event between now and the last fighter (E3 2021), so random drops and Nintendo Direct reveals probably favor first-parties more than third.

For now, I feel comfortable predicting one more first-party and one more third-party (E3). The third could go either way, but if it's a third-party, expect someone like Terry.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Until we get pass 3.
I wish I could have gotten that conversation to catch on. The pros and cons one. And why it is logically incredibly likely.

... maybe I'm a robot. I think I'm a robot.
Or Abed from Community. I do relate to most things to TV...

Okay great. Now I'm paranoid this is derailing again. Maybe this is a tumor. **** it. Let's play Smash, someone? I wanna test out my PP, Banjo, and KR.

I’m not SUPER confident in a Pass 3 but I also don’t think this is the end of Smash Ultimate either.

Like, Pass 3 is a possibility but we’re also coming up on the Switch being 4 years old so it’s not impossible for a Ultimate Deluxe to be in development shortly after this Pass to be prepped and ready for the Switch Successor. Whatever that may be.

 

[Deleted member]

Unless we are getting FP3, which is extremely unlikely, I'm quitting Smash speculation forever after FP2.

 

[MagnesD3]

I’m not SUPER confident in a Pass 3 but I also don’t think this is the end of Smash Ultimate either.

Like, Pass 3 is a possibility but we’re also coming up on the Switch being 4 years old so it’s not impossible for a Ultimate Deluxe to be in development shortly after this Pass to be prepped and ready for the Switch Successor. Whatever that may be.

I also wonder if they would be willing to do individual dlc and echoes instead of passes here going forward..

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

At this point I legitimately don't know what the theme of Smash is supposed to be anymore

Oh that's easy. It's Lifelight!

 

[Momotsuki]

Quite frankly I'm bothered by all the "it's all downhill after Steve/Sephiroth!" stuff, implying that any character that isn't as "big" or is from a series that hasn't raked in as many sales as them must therefore make them a bad pick or completely devoid of any sort of value or merit.

Niche or smaller characters/franchises can bring value to Smash and be cool too.

I actually almost always prefer the "downhill" picks over the big-name ones. They're usually more interesting. Terry was such a fantastic DLC, I still have no words. With that in mind, I still see why people use "downhill" just in regards to how more casual folks might feel about an inclusion.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I think individual DLC is far more likely than another Pass tbh.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

I’m not entirely sure about FP3 , if it is a thing I expect it be revealed maybe around june or july.

I feel like a third pass isn’t all too likely, as the amount of effort it’d take is quite a lot for what will be a three year old game. Though Smash is a big deal so it’s definitely possible.

I think we might get some stray fighter packs that aren’t connected to a pass. Like just a “Surprise this is coming out soon”, kinda like with small battlefield. That way Nintendo doesn’t have to commit to a release date or full pass.

 

[PK-remling Fire]

I dout there'll be an FP3. I think it'd be more profitable in the long run if the current smash dev team starts working on other projects.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I think individual DLC is far more likely than another Pass tbh.

you know I actually hadn't considered that... PP is atm the only individual DLC

I WOULD really like the last four WoL slots if they decide to fill them to come with music and a stage tho

 

[Michael the Spikester]

you know I actually hadn't considered that... PP is atm the only individual DLC

I WOULD really like the last four WoL slots if they decide to fill them to come with music and a stage tho

Yeah but at the same time Sakurai could use a break to be honest.

Though that's that possibility he could and then after doing so gives us said individual DLC as a final give and thanks for the fans we are to him.

 

[Mapusaurus]

Unless we are getting FP3, which is extremely unlikely, I'm quitting Smash speculation forever after FP2.

I feel like base roster is much more fun tan dlc. It feels like with known amonts of charactors that we are competing for spots.

 

[dezeray112]

Whilst I do believe that it is too soon to discuss the possibility of a third fighters' pass, this is something that will be up to Nintendo and Masahiro Sakurai as they hold the answer.

 

[Schnee117]

if Sephiroth was a consolation prize for not getting Sora

This particular line of thought is amusing to me.
Sephiroth, one of the greatest villains in gaming, a consolation prize.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Even with individual DLC, I'm not counting on it tbh. After this Pass I think development for Smash 6 will begin.

Hopefully, an Ultimate Deluxe followed by porting to each Nintendo system forward, the best outcome.

 

[pupNapoleon]

I’m not SUPER confident in a Pass 3 but I also don’t think this is the end of Smash Ultimate either.

Like, Pass 3 is a possibility but we’re also coming up on the Switch being 4 years old so it’s not impossible for a Ultimate Deluxe to be in development shortly after this Pass to be prepped and ready for the Switch Successor. Whatever that may be.

Someone who knows gaming programming-----
could a possible DX work if the new engine were a rollback code but the old werent?
Since we know about the Tekken director working with Sakurai, I assume something is up...

Not that it would need to. I thought MK8 versions were compatible, but honestly, they could sell Smash to ...... what's the saying? Ice to an ******? So... Smash to a....................... college jock?

 

[Deleted member]

I feel like FP3 is nearly impossible.

Smash 4's DLC started from 2014-2016.

FP2's DLC will start from 2018-2021 if it ends with FP2.

If Ultimate has FP3, it could very well end in 2024. That will be 6 years after Ultimate has released. The dev teams need a break after all of this, and Ultimate's player-base will be a lot smaller by the time FP3 ends. Plus, the team has more projects to work, like maybe a Kid Icarus: Uprising sequel.

And as I keep on saying, Sakurai has deeply stated that FP2 will be the last pass of Ultimate.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

This particular line of thought is amusing to me.
Sephiroth, one of the greatest villains in gaming, a consolation prize.

Yeah, I mostly brought it up because there's an analyst who thinks that's how Sephiroth happened. I don't know that I completely buy it, but I suppose it's possible.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

Is a Smash Ultimate Deluxe even possible? I mean, Sakurai said a crossover like this would likely never happen again. All of the deals that had to be made to so many companies... For an Ultimate Deluxe, wouldn't Nintendo have to make a bunch of new agreements with other companies all over again to get the rights to a good chunk of the game?

 

[Deleted member]

It is tempting to worry about the future of Smash after FP2 ends, but we still have three characters to go. We won't have to face that reality until the near end of 2021, which is nearly a year.

 

[pupNapoleon]

I dout there'll be an FP3. I think it'd be more profitable in the long run if the current smash dev team starts working on other projects.

Wait.... 2 years later, the pass still has 90% attachment. That's pretty incredible.

Even with individual DLC, I'm not counting on it tbh. After this Pass I think development for Smash 6 will begin.

Hopefully, an Ultimate Deluxe followed by porting to each Nintendo system forward, the best outcome.

I personally think Smash will now be in development forever. I just think Sakurai is going to finally leave (though, he may have negotiated for all characters to return for one more, as a necessity. It's absolutely possible).

But I cannot see Smash 7 as anything other than a reboot. With a full out movie. And a custom Nintendo that makes popcorn and Goobers (The obvious best movie candy).

 

[Oracle Link]

Dlc Fighter Magikarp splashes into Smash

Everyone: Hes gonna be Broken!

 

[TheBeastHimself]

Unless my understanding of copyright law is wrong (which it likely is), I can't see how a Smash Ultimate Deluxe would be an easy port as some are implying... That's a lot of contract renewals and licensening agreements to sort out again.

 

[pupNapoleon]

Yeah but at the same time Sakurai could use a break to be honest.

Though that's that possibility he could and then after doing so gives us said individual DLC as a final give and thanks for the fans we are to him.

I really don't understand why people say this. I know it's a (racist but not negative) comment that Japanese people work hard---- but it's not like half of the USA doesn't have to work multiple jobs. I know I work 80 hour weeks (in regular times). Sakurai has the dream job of his profession- why would he want to leave it?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Wait.... 2 years later, the pass still has 90% attachment. That's pretty incredible.


I personally think Smash will now be in development forever. I just think Sakurai is going to finally leave (though, he may have negotiated for all characters to return for one more, as a necessity. It's absolutely possible).

But I cannot see Smash 7 as anything other than a reboot. With a full out movie. And a custom Nintendo that makes popcorn and Goobers (The obvious best movie candy).

Would love if Sakurai could finally retire in peace, he does enough for us but unfortunately, he's a workaholic and man loves his work. I fear he'll keep working until he drops dead poor guy...

 

[I.D.]

So this is probably like 7 pages late, but really?
“It’s all downhill after Sephiroth!” Bruh that’s LITERALLY what was said by some after Steve.

Steve and Sephiroth are probably the highest points of this Pass, but do I think that means that big-hype characters are done? NO.

You guys do realize that we have 3 more characters to go with nearly a year left, right? Unless Nintendo wants any attention to Smash to greatly decrease, I don’t think there’s gonna be a total lack of hype/attention drawing additions.

As others have said, have some self-awareness here. After Steve everybody thought the budget was blown. Then we get a character who was MOST LIKELY expensive to acquire. We also have potential background information that Sephiroth, and Fighter Pass 2, were planned earlier than we thought (which makes sense considering costumes were held back until now). Sephiroth was not added to start a trend of villains, and it CERTAINLY was not because “he’s hype, so now we can put less hype characters in”.

Lastly, suggesting that Sephiroth getting revealed now is a positive for first parties is...what? How does Sephiroth help any one character or archetype of character? He’s Sephiroth! Trying to put this into specific characters or types of characters benefiting, I think, is a major stretch.

As always, I do expect the following: smaller character to follow (1st or 3rd party but my guess is 3rd), a potentially big character at E3 (essentially last E3 for Smash Ultimate news), and then a wild card for last pick for a number of reasons.

With added context of the DLC picks I just don’t see how Sephiroth specifically helps any other characters at this point. I think it’s looking too deep at this point. The only thing I’d argue is that this hurts Square characters quite a bit.

Let's be fair for a second, when I said stuff like "we are inevitably going down after Steve" I was going to be right no matter what. As big as Sephiroth is, he's still coming after the most sold videogame in the world, ergo, he's smaller (200 million units sold vs 10 million). I remain completely correct :^)

 

[pupNapoleon]

I actually almost always prefer the "downhill" picks over the big-name ones. They're usually more interesting. Terry was such a fantastic DLC, I still have no words. With that in mind, I still see why people use "downhill" just in regards to how more casual folks might feel about an inclusion.

NGL- I see the "Downhill" picks as people like Sephiroth. We've had 16 revealed DLC so far, and literally half are RPG. It's just.... well.... I guess I hope you like Tuna, because half the year, youre eating tuna.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

Also yeah, I will say it's not like Sakurai is begging for a break (he made one joke because of how absurd Ultimate's roster was becoming). He's not at gunpoint in the basement of a Nintendo factory. He's doing this because he genuinely wants to. It's his choice. I mean, I sure feel bad he's putting himself through all those hoops and having his physical health deteriorate as a result. Ultimately (no pun intended), it's his choice if he wants to keep working on Smash. And if he has a smile on his face and says he wants to keep working, who am I to stop him? Unfortunately, it's not my responsibility to calm down his workload. That's on him...

 

[DarthEnderX]

This is going to be the thread for the next week or so isn't it?

View attachment 295543

For 3 more days at least.

 

[MooMew64]

I don't think I'd have it in me to continue speculating if we somehow get a third pass lol.

NGL, I'm already extremely satisfied with both and , so I'm kind of just along for the ride at this point. If they lengthen this thing into late 2022? I'll hapilly take more, of course, but I'm not gonna be in speculation, lol. I've been hardcore speculating Ultimate since 2018: I am very much ready for it to be done next year.

 

[Deleted member]

Byleth Theory: Every character in FP2 will powercreep Byleth's gimmicks.

(): "Distance Demon"
(): "I Wield Multiple Weapons!"

Seriously, poor Byleth. They need a buff, but they are quite fun too.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

Is a Smash Ultimate Deluxe even possible? I mean, Sakurai said a crossover like this would likely never happen again. All of the deals that had to be made to so many companies... For an Ultimate Deluxe, wouldn't Nintendo have to make a bunch of new agreements with other companies all over again to get the rights to a good chunk of the game?

Well, that depends on how willing our 7 third parties are to play ball. I don’t think it’s impossible, they’ve already agreed to these characters appearances. Nintendo just needs to make the company’s agree to extend something they’ve already agreed to. Combine that with the fact Sakurai has tons of influence and is looking to push Ultimate as far as possible. I think it’s just as likely as a new game.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Also yeah, I will say it's not like Sakurai is begging for a break (he made one joke because of how absurd Ultimate's roster was becoming). He's not at gunpoint in the basement of a Nintendo factory. He's doing this because he genuinely wants to. It's his choice. I mean, I sure feel bad he's putting himself through all those hoops and having his physical health deteriorate as a result. Ultimately (no pun intended), it's his choice if he wants to keep working on Smash. And if he has a smile on his face and says he wants to keep working, who am I to stop him? Unfortunately, it's not my responsibility to calm down his workload. That's on him...

I just wish the people who hate on him for not giving them their most wanted appreciated and respected him more. He's poured his entire heart out in giving us some of our most wants in and this is the thanks he gets?

 

[7NATOR]

Is a Smash Ultimate Deluxe even possible? I mean, Sakurai said a crossover like this would likely never happen again. All of the deals that had to be made to so many companies... For an Ultimate Deluxe, wouldn't Nintendo have to make a bunch of new agreements with other companies all over again to get the rights to a good chunk of the game?

Depends

It's possible that They might have negotiated for Both Ultimate, and Future Versions of Ultimate at the Same time

there was Speculation that Cloud was actually negotiated for Smash 4 and Ultimate at the same time, Though honestly I don't think these scenarios might have happened

I think in terms of Licensing, Because a Smash Ultimate Deluxe probably wouldn't be that much different from Regular Ultimate in terms of Gameplay and such, I think it be easier licensing on that front since there won't be as many new changes to the 3rd party Characters as compared to Smash 4 to Ultmate. This includes all the 3rd Party Newcomers added in, because instead of having to negotaties how this character will be represented in terms of Moveset, Trailer, etc, they already in the game, so less talks needed

However, I do think a big issue is that Depending on how the Companies get paid for their characters, a Smash Ultimate Deluxe would have issue because if 3rd Party companies get a Percent of the Profit instead of just getting Paid upfront, then that would mean every purchase of Ultimate Deluxe would not be as much Money for Nintendo as they may want it, because other companies would have their hands on it.

There's also an issue that I think There may not be as many people buying Smash Ultimate Deluxe, Perhaps citing Regular Smash Ultimate as enough. Remember that the OG Mario Kart 8 was on Wii u which did not sell much, Compared to Switch which sells Gangbangers, so Much more likely people Pick up Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe also doesn't have 3rd party costs either. Smash Ultimate Deluxe as an idea might not be able to pick up as much Purchases to offset how much money they pay to 3rd parties, and additional Content they might add to the game

There's also the Question is if this Content will be Exclusive to the Deluxe version of Ultimate, or will regular Smash Ultimate Player be able to get Access to this content?

At least for the Newcomers for a Deluxe version, I Imagine most of them will be First Party Characters, though there probably be some 3rd parties in there.