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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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JOJONumber691

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Initially misread his special move as "Big Brain Kick" and now I imagine that move being a Wrestler's Warlock Punch something you pull off when you go for the hardest of reads.



Huh? Wut? I don't follow. Why would a region where Nintendo's far from as major as, you know, Nintendo's major regions, stop all Japanese legacy pick?
Money. The South East Asian Markets are a Market of Gamers that Nintendo would definitely want to get into, and I think if Nintendo had a choice between Falcom and Riot for an example, Nintendo would go with Riot. Why? Because it would make Nintendo the most Money overall. Way more than a Falcom Character would, unfortunately. Also Hayabusa is probably in which is another blow to Falcom's Chances BYE!
 

cashregister9

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Money. The South East Asian Markets are a Market of Gamers that Nintendo would definitely want to get into, and I think if Nintendo had a choice between Falcom and Riot for an example, Nintendo would go with Riot. Why? Because it would make Nintendo the most Money overall. Way more than a Falcom Character would, unfortunately. Also Hayabusa is probably in which is another blow to Falcom's Chances BYE!
You know there are 4 characters left right? League and/or Koei getting a rep does not mean Falcom can't
 

Rie Sonomura

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H-huh...?


Do they usually track sales of DLC like this...?

On that note how well has Splatoon 2’s Octo Expansion sold pls I need to know
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Random Thought: I wouldn't be surprised if the reason there isn't any Xenoblade Chronicles X music in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate is because its owned by a separate composer.

Yeah Sora is definitely a Mii
I would be surprised if he is. With all the doom and gloom surrounding Disney it's hard to believe that they'd go through all that for just the costume.
 

cashregister9

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Ramen Tengoku

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H-huh...?


Do they usually track sales of DLC like this...?

On that note how well has Splatoon 2’s Octo Expansion sold pls I need to know
Man, remember when Venus reported that physical vol 2 cards were pulled in japanese stores due to "poor sales"?

Did Steve really make all the difference? Lol
 
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Rie Sonomura

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Random Thought: I wouldn't be surprised if the reason there isn't any Xenoblade Chronicles X music in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate is because its owned by a separate composer.
Well technically yes, Hiroyuki Sawano composed X’s music. But he doesn’t have any strict stipulations or anything, they used Uncontrollable and Wir Fliegen in the Xenoblade 2 expansion pass with Elma

at most he’d probably want a cut of the royalties but that’s it
Man, remember when Venus reported that physical vol 2 cards was pulled in japanese stores due to poor sales?

Did Steve really make all the difference? Lol
I’d say yes tbh
 
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PLANTMAN

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Yeah Sora is definitely a Mii
Please do so he’ll be out

so what if you think it’s hard to believe they would go through all that for a costume, Nintendo of japan Doesn't care about that logic and western smash speculations logic they do whatever they want to do
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Well technically yes, Hiroyuki Sawano composed X’s music. But he doesn’t have any strict stipulations or anything, they used Uncontrollable and Wir Fliegen in the Xenoblade 2 expansion pass with Elma

at most he’d probably want a cut of the royalties but that’s it
It's probably the reason then. Seems to be the reason for a lot of odd music choices like for Rhythm Heaven, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, and Minecraft. Composers owning the rights just seems to either cause problems or dissuade Nintendo from adding their music due to the cost or something.
 

Rie Sonomura

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Let's be real here. Steve is a way bigger draw for people than any ARMS character ever was. It probably wouldn't surprise me if CP7 by itself oversold CP6.
Would you say it also outsold FP2 (Hero) and/or FP3 (Banjo) as well?
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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It probably wouldn't surprise me if CP7 by itself oversold CP6.
Well considering that ARMS is a flash in the pan that is made fun of by literally every other fighting game player and Minecraft is a game that was so influential it's now used in education...

Yeah it's pretty clear that Challenger Pack 7 sold more, probably even double or triple the sales.
 

7NATOR

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I'm kinda confused reading the Data points, but since the Nintendo Financial Report Lists March 2021 the End of the 4 Quarter Cycle, doesn't that Pin Min-Min around the end of Quarter One, or June?

In any case, Since Steve wasn't even Revealed until Quarter 2 was finished I Believe, Min-Min actually picked up alot of Slack in terms of Sales. Good for her.
 

SKX31

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Let's be real here. Steve is a way bigger draw for people than any ARMS character ever was. It probably wouldn't surprise me if CP7 by itself oversold CP6.

Stteve.png


(It does mean that the Min Min Mains will have the benefit of being an "Unknown matchup" to the opponents though.)

Would you say it also outsold FP2 (Hero) and/or FP3 (Banjo) as well?
Very possible that it did. Hero does have a status of an Icon... in Japan.

Steve? Known globally. And has major fanbases everywhere, like in the regions Nintendo already has a major presence in. Minecraft's also huge in regions Nintendo's openly stated they want to expand in (China has a huge Minecraft fanbase, wouldn't be surprised if Korea, SEA etc. also have very strong Minecraft fanbases).

As these seven characters have proven - it's fully possible that one of the remaining four are known globally when Steve already is in, and I wouldn't be surprised if one such character happened (LoL as an example). But I won't hard commit to that when the other 6 are decidedly more regional (Hero, Terry) or niché.
 
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NonSpecificGuy

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Money. The South East Asian Markets are a Market of Gamers that Nintendo would definitely want to get into, and I think if Nintendo had a choice between Falcom and Riot for an example, Nintendo would go with Riot. Why? Because it would make Nintendo the most Money overall. Way more than a Falcom Character would, unfortunately. Also Hayabusa is probably in which is another blow to Falcom's Chances BYE!
I dunno about that one. Sakurai and Nintendo usually aim for Japanese developers over western ones. It’s pretty likely they’d choose Japanese Falcom over U. S.(?) based Riot.
 

JOJONumber691

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Though, to be fair, between September and December of 2019, Smash sold 1,000,000 more copies than before. So, I wouldn't be surprised if some of it was related to Terry and the FGC. And that's probably not counting any Latin American Resales from that time too. Also<
I dunno about that one. Sakurai and Nintendo usually aim for Japanese developers over western ones. It’s pretty likely they’d choose Japanese Falcom over U. S.(?) based Riot.
I only used Riot as an example, so if they wanted to prioritize a Japanese Character in this category, Neople, the owners of Dungeon Fighter Online does most of their business in Japan, so they could easily get prioritized due to the Playerbase ALONE!
 

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Guynamednelson

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Just remember, this doesn't mean Nintendo/Sakurai have "learned their lesson" about putting in characters with the slightest hint of obscurity unless they have enough legacy. They didn't predict the sales of every single character, and Sakurai is more focused on gameplay.
 

Rie Sonomura

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Though, to be fair, between September and December of 2019, Smash sold 1,000,000 more copies than before. So, I wouldn't be surprised if some of it was related to Terry and the FGC. And that's probably not counting any Latin American Resales from that time too. Also<

I only used Riot as an example, so if they wanted to prioritize a Japanese Character in this category, Neople, the owners of Dungeon Fighter Online does most of their business in Japan, so they could easily get prioritized due to the Playerbase ALONE!
Who is that character you keep posting that pic of?
 

Idon

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The Creator Class, from Dungeon Fighter Online. They're cute, popular in certain parts of the World, Japan included, and would be extremely unique in Smash.
You know, we have a feature for that.
It's called a "signature" and you can just post an embed of that image there and it'll show up the first time you type on a page every time.
1604878512278.png
 

AinsOoalGown

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Man, remember when Venus reported that physical vol 2 cards were pulled in japanese stores due to "poor sales"?

Did Steve really make all the difference? Lol
While I'm sure Steve is selling a lot, preeety sure that one info was outed as a filthy lie made to troll smash fans (iirc lots of similar baits were being spread by a certain crowd and they were all lies turned out). No proof, no confirmation, no source, no backing from any japanese, just confirmation bias by people that "want to believe" something they hate is dying. I understand people falled for it back then because no one wants to source or research anything and just takes anything at face value, but nowadays? May as well think the yellow and purple chairs means Skull Kid was coming, Sakurai just had to delay him into DLC.
 
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RileyXY1

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If anything that Steve's inclusion might have led to big sales (assuming that the cause and effect here) could give Nintendo/Sakurai the sense that they might able to go for more obscure fighters for the rest of the pass if one of the selections is significant enough.
We never really had any obscure characters so far.
 

SharkLord

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Damn people are really leaning into Adol lately huh?

I'm not really convinced, but I suppose effectively inventing the action RPG as we know it counts for something. It's healthy for speculation to discuss characters outside of our usual comfort zone and think outside the box. Even though I don't think Adol will be in or have much attachment toward the character it's nice to see.
I'm pretty optimistic, but Smash is one big unknown variable until the character is actually revealed. More than anything I'm just trying to get people on board with the series.
 

GoodGrief741

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Man, remember when Venus reported that physical vol 2 cards were pulled in japanese stores due to "poor sales"?

Did Steve really make all the difference? Lol
That sales data only goes up to September. Steve hadn't even been announced by the cutoff point.

Turns out people will just buy Smash DLC even for first party characters. Who'd have thought?
 

metalhydra273

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We never really had any obscure characters so far.
depends how literally you take obscure because it could be relative. I'd put Terry as a baseline for other "obscure" characters at the moment. Though at this point most of the discussed characters that aren't around this baseline are huge, or even ambitious additions, such as Crash and Master Chief.
 
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LiveStudioAudience

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We never really had any obscure characters so far.
Well I mean relative to a Steve or Sonic. Everyone knows who they are, and even less objectively famous characters like a Crash Bandicoot or a Sora could be the kind of fighters that could sell (future?) passes and thus mean less pressure or less well known fighters like a Geno or Isaac to sell the whole deal to customers.
 
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NonSpecificGuy

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H-huh...?


Do they usually track sales of DLC like this...?

On that note how well has Splatoon 2’s Octo Expansion sold pls I need to know
They track sales for everything. Whether they tell us or not is a different story.
Man, remember when Venus reported that physical vol 2 cards were pulled in japanese stores due to "poor sales"?

Did Steve really make all the difference? Lol
Well, you gotta think, digital copies of DLC is going to sell better anyways because it’s DLC. That’s without even taking into account we’re in the middle of a pandemic. And even THEN people usually don’t dip in early on Season Passes. Because they don’t know if they’ll be worth it.
 

Hydreigonfan01

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Random Thought: I wouldn't be surprised if the reason there isn't any Xenoblade Chronicles X music in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate is because its owned by a separate composer.
Yeah, I feel as though Hiroyuki Sawano's music would be very expensive, especially because he's the guy behind Attack on Titan and Kill la Kill's soundtrack (And you can easily tell that listening to Xenoblade X's music). With how those series broke into the mainstream and started the new anime fanbase and generation, I can imagine he's now one of the most famous music composers in Japan and he won't give his music for a cheap price.
 

JOJONumber691

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I only post the Creator Image under any post revolving around DFO, so if I do a signature it's probably going to be for something else.
 
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