Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Momotsuki]

At this point, I think pretty much every character could use at least one costume like that except... I dunno, Puff.

Give them a Marnie wig.

 

[SKX31]

Biggest gripe about miis is that for some godforsaken reason we keep getting costumes for them and not the vast majority of the cast who would really really appreciate some alternate looks. Like come on, who wants to wear a 3rd Mii Swordfighter costume from Link's wardrobe when we could get something like, I dunno, a set Link actually wears... on Link?

Yeah, tbh I'd be a lot more willing to pay, for, say, Ancient Armor Link as a costume than a Mii that wears said armor.

It's understandable when it doesn't work, like the P4 protagonist on top of Joker, but if the costume is based on a playable character, I'd rather have the costumes for THAT character.

At this point, I think pretty much every character could use at least one costume like that except... I dunno, Puff.

Bonus points if said costumes actually changed particle/sound effects or such, like in MOBAs and Overwatch.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if there's some internal resistance to that:

In 2019, WSJ reported that Nintendo had asked its mobile developers to reign in monetization mechanics so that players “won’t spend too much.” The company feared that stories of players spending hundreds or thousands of dollars would hurt its brand image.

Yes, the context behind the quote is the mobile side of things, but it can apply to Smash too. There could easily be a couple high ranking Nintendo execs who worry about the brand image because someone spent like $300+ on every alternate costume if they were available to all 75+ characters...

...But the quote in turn makes even less sense when Mario Kart Tour not only became what it is... it gave us the Diddy Kong Pack. Not to mention the passes to individual mobile games like FEH.

Gaaah.

And Saurus, Puff could get its old Headband (from Melee) back and I'd buy that in a jiffy:

(Yes, the image is from Project M. Still.)

 

[Perkilator]

Time to add “Miis bad” to the list of things to add to “Things SmashBoards never shut the everlasting **** about”.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Time to add “Miis bad” to the list of things to add to “Things SmashBoards never shut the everlasting **** about”.

How often do you deem it acceptable to complain about something?

 

[Flik]

My only 2 problems with the Mii Fighters are:

1 - We can only change their specials, not normals, aerials or grabs. It makes them all feel same-y.
2 - We can only change the full costume and headgear (and only some of them have color customization). We should've been able to mix and match the leg, arm and body parts like some games do (like Dynasty/Samurai Warriors).

Otherwise, I love creating characters (and myself sometimes), so the Mii Fighters will always have a place in my heart

edit: also ****ing loved Miitopia

 

[GoodGrief741]

I really like the Mii Fighters. My only qualm with them is that there's very few options to choose from moveset-wise. Surely they could steal some more special moves from other fighters without much effort. Maybe they could just drop the three classes and let you make anything you want with a big movepool.

I'd also like to see what they'd do with them in a story mode, Subspace Emissary really helped flesh out Mr. G&W and ROB's personalities.

 

[I.D.]

But Miis are a good character creation system.

They are such a good system that everyone agrees the best mii costumes are the ones that hide the mii beneath as best as possible

 

[Perkilator]

How often do you deem it acceptable to complain about something?

I wasn‘t controlling anything. I was just adding to the list of things we talk about constantly.

 

[3BitSaurus]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if there's some internal resistance to that:

Yes, the context behind the quote is the mobile side of things, but it can apply to Smash too. There could easily be a couple high ranking Nintendo execs who worry about the brand image because someone spent like $300+ on every alternate costume if they were available to all 75+ characters...

...But the quote in turn makes even less sense when Mario Kart Tour not only became what it is... it gave us the Diddy Kong Pack. Not to mention the passes to individual mobile games like FEH.

Gaaah.

And Saurus, Puff could get its old Headband (from Melee) back and I'd buy that in a jiffy:

(Yes, the image is from Project M. Still.)

Huh. Yeah, the Diddy Kong pack arguably hurt Nintendo's brand image way more than fighter costumes ever could lol.

Also, yeah, sometimes I forget that Puff alt is gone. Along with Fire Mario and Black Yoshi. Rest in Pepperoni.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I really like the Mii Fighters. My only qualm with them is that there's very few options to choose from moveset-wise. Surely they could steal some more special moves from other fighters without much effort. Maybe they could just drop the three classes and let you make anything you want with a big movepool.

It's certainly an interesting concept, though I'm not sure how feasible it would be since you'd essentially be making 3 or more characters who's attacks have to be balanced both individually and together. Not sure the high workload and balancing nightmare would be worth it.

We definitely should be able to pick from a pool of flavor stuff like idle animations, taunts, victory fanfares, etc.

I wasn‘t controlling anything. I was just adding to the list of things we talk about constantly.

We don't really though. It's more like every once in a while. I think the last time this came up was last year.

 

[7NATOR]

Okay, So I Posted this in the Geno thread, and I thought I Post it here too. If you guys are bored, perhaps you could find this Analysis interesting, about the 2 Year old "Leak": The Grinch Leak

Okay, So I think I will have to update this Theory eventually, (I Also need to write a TL;DR but I don't know how to shorten all of this), but here is My Theory on the Grinch leak actually being real, but Outdated

The Most Important parts are the "Potential Questions and Answer" Part, and also the Notable characters absent (which explain why Incineroar and Plant were not in the Grinch Leak. The Potential Questions and Answer section goes more in depth with the absent characters and such

Also the Conclusion part is important. Everything else is important to, but take note of those 3 Sections


The Grinch Leak wasn’t fake, but like Gematsu, It was heavily outdated.

This suggests that Geno, Isaac, Banjo, Mach Rider, Chorus Kids, and Shadow would have been in the base roster of Ultimate. Ken is not counted as he was on the base roster of Ultimate nevertheless

Spoiler: Evidence Towards the Characters being considered for Roster

-Chorus Kids were planned to be in Smash 4, if gematsu and the datamine of Smash 4 is to be believed, but were cut for unknown reasons. Since Chrom the other character that was on gematsu that ended up not being playable in Smash 4, became playable in Ultimate, there’s a likely scenario that Chorus Kids were once again planned for Ultimate

-Chorus Kids also have the most spirits of any Franchise not represented with a character, with Golden Sun also taking that mantle

-Speaking of Golden Sun, Isaac returned as an Assist Trophy, and the Assist Trophy was also upgraded.

-Isaac also got a Mii Costume.

-Geno has a Spirit in the game. Along with Mallow, Geno is the only Square character represented in base game that’s not Cloud

-Mach Rider also fits the Format of the Surprise Character of the game, which is the Format the Bonus Character, Piranha Plant, also shares

-While not Mach Rider specifically, another Nintendo character known for using their bikes was considered in Melee: Excite Biker. Perhaps a Character that prominently uses their bike was considered once again for Ultimate. (Considering in this game we Also Got Ditto as a Pokeball which was planned in Melee, and Banjo as Playable character)

-Shadow’s Assist Function was improved and changed. He uses the emerald and has Increase in function.

-Knuckles is also an Assist Trophy. Also one thing to notice is how much Assets Knuckles re-uses (he Uses a Homing Attack for instance, and Some animations are shared)

-On the Assist thing, both Shadow and Isaac were shown Last Minute, so they were deemed notable to share

-For Banjo, The talk for another Microsoft character, Steve, was in plan for around 5 years. Likely chance that it was around the Time Ultimate’s first planning was beginning. Considering how requested Banjo was, this could be a sign. It could have been a Case where Both Banjo and Steve were planned to be in, and Banjo would be Base and Steve would be FP1.

-Rare Spirits were in the game’s data at launch

Spoiler: Notable Characters Absent from Grinch Leak (and Why)

Incineroar: A Spot was saved for a Gen 7 Pokemon, but it wasn’t known exactly who, so for the Grinch Picture, Incinearoar couldn’t be Present

Piranha Plant: A Likely chance that it wasn’t planned initially. Mach Rider might have been intended to be the Suprise character, but for whatever reason it couldn’t work out. Plant took it’s place.

Steve: Was in talks for 5 years. There may have been a Plan for Banjo to be base roster, and Steve to be FP1. This also makes sense from a mechanical standpoint. Banjo is much more simple character in terms of Mechanics compared to Steve, so for Base game Development, Banjo would be easier to develop along with the game, compared to Steve.

Spoiler: Why were the Grinch Leak Characters Cut?

If this Scenario was real, why was Geno, Isaac, Shadow, Chorus Kids, and Mach Rider Cut? And Banjo moved to FP1?


-The game might have been planned to have More Newcomers than Planned. Even in the scenario all 6 of these characters would be base roster), that would only be 11 unique newcomers, which is not that much in comparison to other games. This is also indicating Shadow were to be an echo. The Final Base Newcomer Roster would look like this


Unique: Inkling, Ridley, Simon, King K.Rool, Isabelle, Incineroar, Geno, Isaac, Banjo, Chorus Kids, Mach Rider

Echoes: Daisy, Richter, Chrom, Dark Samus, Ken, Shadow


This would be a total of 17 Newcomers, which is the same amount as Smash 4, though only 11 of them are unique (and with Isabelle being a Semi-Clone, only 10 would be completely unique)

-The Work of Bringing every character back however proved to be too much for even this amount of Newcomers, so Cuts had to be made. Why to these Specific characters, and why Was Banjo moved to FP1


-Chorus Kids, Isaac, and Mach Rider absolutely would need New Stages to represent them. Because the New stage count was So short at only 4 New stages for the Base game, New Franchises were at a Disadvantage. 2 of these Franchises (Golden Sun, Mach Rider) were dormant. At the time Rhythm heaven was still living, however it could not compare to The Breakout hit of Splatoon, and the Legacy and request of Castlvania.


-Geno could be argued whether he really needs a New Stage or Not. in any case, being owned by a 3rd party, perhaps there were more licensing costs associated with him than characters included in. He’s also less relevant and known than any of the base game newcomers.


-Shadow probably was planned to be an echo, though eventually it was found out he’d need much more substantial changes, that he wouldn’t be an echo anymore, whether it be at Sega’s Request or Sakurai’s Request. He was then out- prioritized


-Banjo probably did have some licensing cost towards him, and of course being a New Franchise he’d have to have a new stage. For these reasons, was not prioritized for Base roster, but he had enough merit to be moved to FP1 and be sold as DLC

Spoiler: Why were the Cut Characters not in FP1?

-Banjo made it to FP1, so he’s not in the Equation

-Isaac and Mach Rider were dormant Franchises, so they were at heavy disadvantage. Mach rider is at More because unlike Isaac, he doesn’t have the heavy fan demand.

-Geno was Heavily Out-Prioritized by Hero from Dragon quest. Also technically being a Mario Character, he’s not from a New Franchise

-Chorus Kids at the time might not have had a future, so yeah

-Shadow is from a Represented Franchise, like with Geno. Probably also was Out Prioritized by Joker

Spoiler: Other Cut characters (Chadendorf Leak)

-The Chadendorf leak, which was tied with the Grinch Leak, says that Dixie, Monster Hunter, and Ray (01) were cut. Why were these characters cut very Early

-Dixie probably was heavily out-Prioritized by King K.Rool. If she were playable, she might have brought with her the Scrapped Tag mechanic she was supposed to have with Diddy in brawl, but with Kiddy. Her Legend Spirit being her and Kiddy might suggest this


-Monster Hunter might have been fit not to work, perhaps in moveset or something, it’s weird. With Rathalos being a Boss and an Assist, There had to be some consideration of the Hunter. There’s also something to note about Ken being an echo in the game. There probably was consideration for a Full Newcomer from Capcom. It wasn’t meant to be

-Ray (01) Probably was considered because he was a Mech Character. He might have been one of those Suprise Characters, however with how Super Niche he is, was scrapped very early. Was turned into a Mii Costume though


Here’s Picture: https://imgur.com/Ppi80iw

https://imgur.com/Ppi80iw

Spoiler: Timeline of Events (My Hypothesis)

First Round

-Inkling, Ridley, New DK Rep (K.Rool or Dixie, or perhaps Both), Steve, Castlevania (Belmonts or Alucard), Chorus Kids, Isaac, Geno, Gen 7 Pokemon (it would be coming out soon), Isabelle, Weird Character (Ray (01) or Mach Rider, or Perhaps both), Monster Hunter


Echoes may or may not have been decided this early too, if So


-Daisy, Chrom, Dark Samus, Ken, Shadow

Dixie and Isabelle might have been considered for Echo Spots as well



Second Round

-Dixie, Monster Hunter, and Ray (01) are Cut

-King K.Rool, The Belmonts, and Mach Rider might have been decided from this point on

-Richter is then added as an Echo

-Steve might have been deemed hard to Implement, Banjo is then in talks



So “Final Roster” is

-Inkling, Ridley, Simon, King K.Rool, Isabelle, Geno, Isaac, Banjo, Chorus Kids, Mach Rider, Gen 7 Pokemon

-Daisy, Richter, Chrom, Dark Samus, Ken, Shadow as echoes



Final Round

-Geno, Isaac, Banjo, Chorus Kids, Mach Rider, Shadow are Cut

-Incineroar is Decided as the Gen 7 Pokemon

-Later down the line when FP1 is being decided, Banjo is Brought up again as an option, and is successful in securing a spot

Spoiler: Potential Questions to the Theory (and some Answers)

When Would the Grinch Characters have gotten cut?

-They would have gotten cut somewhere around 2016, before Full development would have begun. One interesting tidbit is that the Marina PLV, an art studio that the Alleged leaker was traced too confirmed he Worked there until November of 2016. Marina PLV has confirmed Namco was one of their Clients. Here is their statement on the matter

"Rumors of privacy leakage on the latest version of the game Super Smash Bros. report a connection with our company. All these rumors only support one idea, journalism is not limited to doing a search on Google. Indeed, the person incriminated in this "rumor", if it is it, is no longer present in our company since November 2016. Having not updated his profile updated, some have wanted to make a connection with the Marina Workshops that can not exist. Namco is a company we have worked with and want to rework with, this is not currently the case for the launch of Super Smash Bros Ultimate. These rumors are therefore a discredit on our professionalism widely recognized, especially with respect to our commitments on confidentiality. We are currently contacting all these sites and Namco / Nintendo to remove this false information and assess the judicial follow-up. The Marina team."


They did say they didn’t not work with the LAUNCH of Super Smash bros Ultimate, but the wording of launch is key. It’s possible that they may have worked with them in the PRE-Stages of Ultimate.




There are details of the Grinch Leak that don’t match up with the Official Artworks. Locations are changed, notably Ken’s, Banjo’s Art is Completely Different, and the Actual Background is Different


-Locations are shown to Change with every character either Taken off or Added. The DLC Prove this. Banjo’s Pose being different can be due to the fact that Banjo are 3rd party and Microsoft. Perhaps Microsoft/Rare wanted Banjo’s Pose to maybe be more Dynamic, So it was changed. As for the Background, could have been beta background, and decided to make changes to make it more Appealing


Why is Incineroar and Plant Missing from the Artwork

-Gen 7 Pokemon had a Roster Slot saved for them, but it wasn’t exactly known who the actual Pokemon would be. It was a decision between Decidueye and Incineroar, and Incineroar was Picked, but probably after this Banner was made


-As For Plant, It probably wasn’t planned initially. Plant is classified as the Suprise character of the Game, however it’s likely Mach Rider was planned to take that role. This also could be why Plant is a Bonus character, As we was probably added really late


Why Weren’t Other Veteran 3rd parties Artwork changed, but Banjo’s Was?


-For the Veteran 3rd parties, They were already represented in the past and it might be easier to talk to them and get their input on the Art. Banjo is from Microsoft, which would have been at the timea Brand New Company, and a Western One at that.


Why did the Leak Surface Very late into Base Game Speculation, instead of Early on Like Gematsu

-That I’m not sure. What I will say is up until the Final November Direct, both the Real Roster and Grinch Leak Roster lined up perfectly, and Especially with Ken being Leaked in that 4Chan Pic, it seemed The Leak was gonna become reality. It was time to take Credibility.


Was Everyone is Here Planned that early?

-Yes. With how Well veterans did on the Ballot, it’s likely that while the reboot Idea was considered, Everyone is Here probably was decided pretty Quickly

I think the Grinch Roster might have been a Very Optimistic look on a Roster that would have Everyone is Here, along with a more Generous amount of Newcomers (even then, with only 11 of the Newcomers being unique, and 17 in Total, it would have been not as much as Other Games). When it was found the Newcomer count would have to be even more deflated, Cuts had to be made


How Does FP1 and FP2 relate to The Grinch Roster


-In a Hypothetical Scenario where Grinch Roster was the Real Roster, FP1 probably would look like this

Joker, Hero, Steve, Terry, Byleth

So Overall FP1 Likely would be the Same, except Banjo’s Spot would be Replaced

Shadow, Geno, and Banjo as the Appetizers to the Entree’s of Joker, Hero, and Steve would make some sense. Joker though probably wasn’t Considered till like 2017 considering how very Recent he is.

However in this Scenario, we might have also not have gotten another Microsoft Character in FP1, and Steve would still be in FP2. It’s unknown though

On FP2, We would have to see where it goes to comment on that, but Min-Min would definitely stay. Steve, if not in this Hypothetical FP1 would be in FP2.


Why was Shadow Cut?

Shadow is Weird because unlike the other Grinch Characters, Shadow was Implied to be an echo. However the likelest situation was that eventually it was determined he wouldn’t be an Echo, or at least not as Similar as the other Echoes. He would need more drastic Changes than the other Echoes (Definitely more than Ken even).



Why was Isaac and Shadow made Assists, don’t they deconfirm

Isaac and Shadow in this scenario were cut from the Base roster, and then were out-Prioritized heavily for FP1. FP2 wasn’t a Sure thing around even the launch of the game, and surely not anytime before. Sakurai and the Team still wanted these characters to have Big Roles in the game (especially since both were Assists Already in the Past), so they re-added their Assists.


FP2 is something Completely new to Smash, as we never had DLC go on this long, and also be this separated from the base game (since in Smash 4, at least Mewtwo seemed to have been planned as DLC some time before launch of the game). We shall see what happens in this Scenario

What about the Cut in the Art next to Little Mac, and how it related to Isaac’s Placement

That was Very Crazy. One thing I will say is that The Particular version of the Artwork was the last one in which the Grinch leak and the Real roster did not have any Conflicts in characters in the Art (this was when Isabelle was the latest Newcomer revealed). It’s possible that this version of the Art Might be using an Edited version of the Grinch Poster Art or something, and that’s why the cut was there.


What is this “Surprise Character” title used to refer to Mach Rider and Plant

https://i0.wp.com/www.sourcegaming.info/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Scan-Translation-3.png

This Picture showcases how Duck Hunt is Classified as the Surprise Character of Smash 4, meaning it seems to be a Role a Character fills on each Smash roster.

In this Scenario, if the Chadendorf Leak and Grinch Leak are taken as real things, Ray (01) and Mach Rider were Considered for this Role, before deciding on Plant, so it goes like this


Ray (01) >> Mach Rider >> Piranha Plant (Character ultimately Decided on)



Are these the Only Characters considered for the Roster


Likely not, there were probably other characters considered (Not Including ones mentioned by Sakurai himself like Decidueye and Alucard)

The Grinch Characters however seemed to be the Cut Characters that got the Furthest ahead to being Playable, before being Scrapped.


Why was Banjo Moved to DLC?

Of all the characters, It seems Banjo had the most merit. He was one of the most Requested characters, Is a New Franchise, and comes from a New Company in Microsoft. Steve might have also looked much harder to Implement compared to Banjo, and Since Hero was in the Pass, they had their very Big character, so Steve wasn’t as needed.

Nintendo said they were very Surprised at the Reaction to Banjo, Which for Characters like Geno and Isaac, could be a very good sign. Also keep in Mine FP2 was apparently green lit around June of 2019, after Hero and Banjo’s Reveals

Spoiler: Can the Cut Characters Make a Comeback in FP2?

(Note: this also includes the Cut Characters in the Chadendorf leak)

-Ray (01) and Mach Rider are Likely done.

-Chorus Kids are a New Nintendo Franchise, and have a Cool mechanic with Rhythm, but it’s REALLY up in the air if they have a shot, especially since the Franchise is not even on Switch and not relevant. While it also has had Demand, it’s not the hugest ever


-Dixie has had heavy Demand, and Still has Demand even now. She can also use The Scrapped tag Mechanic with Kiddy. DK has already gotten a New Character, so might be an harder Sell, however Geno is also a huge Talking point, and we’ve gotten TWO Mario characters already


-Isaac and Shadow have heavy Demand, Isaac, Especially. Both these characters are Assists. Whether that’s good or bad is up to you. In any case, if Playable they could re-use their Assist Models and have them touched up. Min-Min and Steve also heavily re-use Models so it would be going by the Trends
-Isaac Already has Mii Costume. Whether that’s good or bad is up to you. It’s a base game Mii Costume

-Rumors and New Trademarks point towards a New Golden Sun game happening, or at least a Remake. Isaac could fulfill the role of Byleth and be the character from a Game “People are Playing now”. Golden Sun is also a New Franchise in the same way ARMS was

-Shadow is Probably the Most Mainstream character of these characters, along with Hunter and Dixie. Shadow however comes from Represented Franchise already, however Sonic has not gotten a New Character since Sonic himself in Brawl

-Tails and Knuckles are Mii Costumes, and DLC ones at that. Whether that’s good or bad is up to you. Keep in mind that they were in the First Pack. It’s rumored Fighter pass 2 was greenlit around June 2019, 2 Months after Tails and Knuckles’s Costumes were made available

-Geno Has good amount of Circumstansial Evidence, and his Mii Costume is missing. He also has HEAVY Smash fan Demand, and also rumors of SMRPG Remake or Sequel


-Monster Hunter World Came out in 2018, and put the franchise on the map in the West, meaning Monster Hunter got more merit than when Base roster and FP1 were being decided. Two Exclusive Switch MH Games coming 2021. Mii Costumes still missing

Spoiler: Conclusions

There’s Some holes in this Theory, and honestly some of this is probably a Stretch, but it was interesting to Analyze and Dissect this leak 2 Years later. We also don’t have 100% confirmation of who did it. There was that 4chan post, but it wasn’t concrete of whether that post was telling the truth in that they made the leak.

The things I’m not sure about is that

1.The Initial Post I Believe came from a Snapchat Post, How don’t know how that would affect things?

2.How long did the Pic exist for?

3.Who was Chadendorf (since his post existed before Grinch leak)? Was he Mariotehplumber?

4.While Marina PLV said they weren’t connected to the launch of Smash Ultimate, were they connected Pre-release? Also how did ACP-PLV factor into things?

I would say from a Logical Standpoint, I would argue all the characters in the Grinch Leak being considered is very Likely, and even the characters In the Chadendorf Leak (Dixie and Monster Hunter in Particular) were very likely to be considered.


If there are more Questions you want to ask, Post them, or any other Info I Might have missed

 

[Arcanir]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if there's some internal resistance to that:



Yes, the context behind the quote is the mobile side of things, but it can apply to Smash too. There could easily be a couple high ranking Nintendo execs who worry about the brand image because someone spent like $300+ on every alternate costume if they were available to all 75+ characters...

...But the quote in turn makes even less sense when Mario Kart Tour not only became what it is... it gave us the Diddy Kong Pack. Not to mention the passes to individual mobile games like FEH.

Gaaah.

And Saurus, Puff could get its old Headband (from Melee) back and I'd buy that in a jiffy:

View attachment 290866

(Yes, the image is from Project M. Still.)

I honestly don't think that statement is what's limiting the possibility of costume packs, at least on the Nintendo side of things. Despite that quote, they've shown in other ways that they're not above shady tactics. You already mentioned the infamous FEH Pass and Diddy pack, but there's also been cases like Echoes' infamous DLC pack costing more then the game itself, as well as the current limited releases for games like the Super Mario anniversary pack. If the quote meant anything it only really affected their mobile games in the early years (and Dragalia Lost overall, but that's probably more on Cygames), otherwise they've not consistently shown that they're adverse to that type of monetization practice.

It's possible what may be happening is that there are restrictions on the characters made by the original developers. We already do have some characters in the base game that feel like missed opportunities with their costumes such as Sonic who has a very limited set of colors he's allowed to use and no alts that reference anything specific to his franchise. It's possible that those restrictions may be carried over to DLC and they're not allowed to make those type of costumes for those characters, and since Ultimate has a uniform costume count across the roster they may've just deemed it not worth making packs of costumes if certain characters had to be restricted.

 

[kylexv]

So, seeing as I've been gone the past week, anything important I missed?

 

[RileyXY1]

So, seeing as I've been gone the past week, anything important I missed?

League of Legends is coming to the Switch.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Incineroar: A Spot was saved for a Gen 7 Pokemon, but it wasn’t known exactly who, so for the Grinch Picture, Incinearoar couldn’t be Present

I find it unlikely that the production of the banner would have started before all characters were known quantities. It affects composition and you'd want as few characters to be shoehorned in as possible.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Okay, So I Posted this in the Geno thread, and I thought I Post it here too. If you guys are bored, perhaps you could find this Analysis interesting, about the 2 Year old "Leak": The Grinch Leak

Okay, So I think I will have to update this Theory eventually, (I Also need to write a TL;DR but I don't know how to shorten all of this), but here is My Theory on the Grinch leak actually being real, but Outdated

The Most Important parts are the "Potential Questions and Answer" Part, and also the Notable characters absent (which explain why Incineroar and Plant were not in the Grinch Leak. The Potential Questions and Answer section goes more in depth with the absent characters and such

Also the Conclusion part is important. Everything else is important to, but take note of those 3 Sections


The Grinch Leak wasn’t fake, but like Gematsu, It was heavily outdated.

This suggests that Geno, Isaac, Banjo, Mach Rider, Chorus Kids, and Shadow would have been in the base roster of Ultimate. Ken is not counted as he was on the base roster of Ultimate nevertheless

Spoiler: Evidence Towards the Characters being considered for Roster

-Chorus Kids were planned to be in Smash 4, if gematsu and the datamine of Smash 4 is to be believed, but were cut for unknown reasons. Since Chrom the other character that was on gematsu that ended up not being playable in Smash 4, became playable in Ultimate, there’s a likely scenario that Chorus Kids were once again planned for Ultimate

-Chorus Kids also have the most spirits of any Franchise not represented with a character, with Golden Sun also taking that mantle

-Speaking of Golden Sun, Isaac returned as an Assist Trophy, and the Assist Trophy was also upgraded.

-Isaac also got a Mii Costume.

-Geno has a Spirit in the game. Along with Mallow, Geno is the only Square character represented in base game that’s not Cloud

-Mach Rider also fits the Format of the Surprise Character of the game, which is the Format the Bonus Character, Piranha Plant, also shares

-While not Mach Rider specifically, another Nintendo character known for using their bikes was considered in Melee: Excite Biker. Perhaps a Character that prominently uses their bike was considered once again for Ultimate. (Considering in this game we Also Got Ditto as a Pokeball which was planned in Melee, and Banjo as Playable character)

-Shadow’s Assist Function was improved and changed. He uses the emerald and has Increase in function.

-Knuckles is also an Assist Trophy. Also one thing to notice is how much Assets Knuckles re-uses (he Uses a Homing Attack for instance, and Some animations are shared)

-On the Assist thing, both Shadow and Isaac were shown Last Minute, so they were deemed notable to share

-For Banjo, The talk for another Microsoft character, Steve, was in plan for around 5 years. Likely chance that it was around the Time Ultimate’s first planning was beginning. Considering how requested Banjo was, this could be a sign. It could have been a Case where Both Banjo and Steve were planned to be in, and Banjo would be Base and Steve would be FP1.

-Rare Spirits were in the game’s data at launch

Spoiler: Notable Characters Absent from Grinch Leak (and Why)

Incineroar: A Spot was saved for a Gen 7 Pokemon, but it wasn’t known exactly who, so for the Grinch Picture, Incinearoar couldn’t be Present

Piranha Plant: A Likely chance that it wasn’t planned initially. Mach Rider might have been intended to be the Suprise character, but for whatever reason it couldn’t work out. Plant took it’s place.

Steve: Was in talks for 5 years. There may have been a Plan for Banjo to be base roster, and Steve to be FP1. This also makes sense from a mechanical standpoint. Banjo is much more simple character in terms of Mechanics compared to Steve, so for Base game Development, Banjo would be easier to develop along with the game, compared to Steve.

Spoiler: Why were the Grinch Leak Characters Cut?

If this Scenario was real, why was Geno, Isaac, Shadow, Chorus Kids, and Mach Rider Cut? And Banjo moved to FP1?


-The game might have been planned to have More Newcomers than Planned. Even in the scenario all 6 of these characters would be base roster), that would only be 11 unique newcomers, which is not that much in comparison to other games. This is also indicating Shadow were to be an echo. The Final Base Newcomer Roster would look like this


Unique: Inkling, Ridley, Simon, King K.Rool, Isabelle, Incineroar, Geno, Isaac, Banjo, Chorus Kids, Mach Rider

Echoes: Daisy, Richter, Chrom, Dark Samus, Ken, Shadow


This would be a total of 17 Newcomers, which is the same amount as Smash 4, though only 11 of them are unique (and with Isabelle being a Semi-Clone, only 10 would be completely unique)

-The Work of Bringing every character back however proved to be too much for even this amount of Newcomers, so Cuts had to be made. Why to these Specific characters, and why Was Banjo moved to FP1


-Chorus Kids, Isaac, and Mach Rider absolutely would need New Stages to represent them. Because the New stage count was So short at only 4 New stages for the Base game, New Franchises were at a Disadvantage. 2 of these Franchises (Golden Sun, Mach Rider) were dormant. At the time Rhythm heaven was still living, however it could not compare to The Breakout hit of Splatoon, and the Legacy and request of Castlvania.


-Geno could be argued whether he really needs a New Stage or Not. in any case, being owned by a 3rd party, perhaps there were more licensing costs associated with him than characters included in. He’s also less relevant and known than any of the base game newcomers.


-Shadow probably was planned to be an echo, though eventually it was found out he’d need much more substantial changes, that he wouldn’t be an echo anymore, whether it be at Sega’s Request or Sakurai’s Request. He was then out- prioritized


-Banjo probably did have some licensing cost towards him, and of course being a New Franchise he’d have to have a new stage. For these reasons, was not prioritized for Base roster, but he had enough merit to be moved to FP1 and be sold as DLC

Spoiler: Why were the Cut Characters not in FP1?

-Banjo made it to FP1, so he’s not in the Equation

-Isaac and Mach Rider were dormant Franchises, so they were at heavy disadvantage. Mach rider is at More because unlike Isaac, he doesn’t have the heavy fan demand.

-Geno was Heavily Out-Prioritized by Hero from Dragon quest. Also technically being a Mario Character, he’s not from a New Franchise

-Chorus Kids at the time might not have had a future, so yeah

-Shadow is from a Represented Franchise, like with Geno. Probably also was Out Prioritized by Joker

Spoiler: Other Cut characters (Chadendorf Leak)

-The Chadendorf leak, which was tied with the Grinch Leak, says that Dixie, Monster Hunter, and Ray (01) were cut. Why were these characters cut very Early

-Dixie probably was heavily out-Prioritized by King K.Rool. If she were playable, she might have brought with her the Scrapped Tag mechanic she was supposed to have with Diddy in brawl, but with Kiddy. Her Legend Spirit being her and Kiddy might suggest this


-Monster Hunter might have been fit not to work, perhaps in moveset or something, it’s weird. With Rathalos being a Boss and an Assist, There had to be some consideration of the Hunter. There’s also something to note about Ken being an echo in the game. There probably was consideration for a Full Newcomer from Capcom. It wasn’t meant to be

-Ray (01) Probably was considered because he was a Mech Character. He might have been one of those Suprise Characters, however with how Super Niche he is, was scrapped very early. Was turned into a Mii Costume though


Here’s Picture: https://imgur.com/Ppi80iw

https://imgur.com/Ppi80iw

Spoiler: Timeline of Events (My Hypothesis)

First Round

-Inkling, Ridley, New DK Rep (K.Rool or Dixie, or perhaps Both), Steve, Castlevania (Belmonts or Alucard), Chorus Kids, Isaac, Geno, Gen 7 Pokemon (it would be coming out soon), Isabelle, Weird Character (Ray (01) or Mach Rider, or Perhaps both), Monster Hunter


Echoes may or may not have been decided this early too, if So


-Daisy, Chrom, Dark Samus, Ken, Shadow

Dixie and Isabelle might have been considered for Echo Spots as well



Second Round

-Dixie, Monster Hunter, and Ray (01) are Cut

-King K.Rool, The Belmonts, and Mach Rider might have been decided from this point on

-Richter is then added as an Echo

-Steve might have been deemed hard to Implement, Banjo is then in talks



So “Final Roster” is

-Inkling, Ridley, Simon, King K.Rool, Isabelle, Geno, Isaac, Banjo, Chorus Kids, Mach Rider, Gen 7 Pokemon

-Daisy, Richter, Chrom, Dark Samus, Ken, Shadow as echoes



Final Round

-Geno, Isaac, Banjo, Chorus Kids, Mach Rider, Shadow are Cut

-Incineroar is Decided as the Gen 7 Pokemon

-Later down the line when FP1 is being decided, Banjo is Brought up again as an option, and is successful in securing a spot

Spoiler: Potential Questions to the Theory (and some Answers)

When Would the Grinch Characters have gotten cut?

-They would have gotten cut somewhere around 2016, before Full development would have begun. One interesting tidbit is that the Marina PLV, an art studio that the Alleged leaker was traced too confirmed he Worked there until November of 2016. Marina PLV has confirmed Namco was one of their Clients. Here is their statement on the matter

"Rumors of privacy leakage on the latest version of the game Super Smash Bros. report a connection with our company. All these rumors only support one idea, journalism is not limited to doing a search on Google. Indeed, the person incriminated in this "rumor", if it is it, is no longer present in our company since November 2016. Having not updated his profile updated, some have wanted to make a connection with the Marina Workshops that can not exist. Namco is a company we have worked with and want to rework with, this is not currently the case for the launch of Super Smash Bros Ultimate. These rumors are therefore a discredit on our professionalism widely recognized, especially with respect to our commitments on confidentiality. We are currently contacting all these sites and Namco / Nintendo to remove this false information and assess the judicial follow-up. The Marina team."


They did say they didn’t not work with the LAUNCH of Super Smash bros Ultimate, but the wording of launch is key. It’s possible that they may have worked with them in the PRE-Stages of Ultimate.




There are details of the Grinch Leak that don’t match up with the Official Artworks. Locations are changed, notably Ken’s, Banjo’s Art is Completely Different, and the Actual Background is Different


-Locations are shown to Change with every character either Taken off or Added. The DLC Prove this. Banjo’s Pose being different can be due to the fact that Banjo are 3rd party and Microsoft. Perhaps Microsoft/Rare wanted Banjo’s Pose to maybe be more Dynamic, So it was changed. As for the Background, could have been beta background, and decided to make changes to make it more Appealing


Why is Incineroar and Plant Missing from the Artwork

-Gen 7 Pokemon had a Roster Slot saved for them, but it wasn’t exactly known who the actual Pokemon would be. It was a decision between Decidueye and Incineroar, and Incineroar was Picked, but probably after this Banner was made


-As For Plant, It probably wasn’t planned initially. Plant is classified as the Suprise character of the Game, however it’s likely Mach Rider was planned to take that role. This also could be why Plant is a Bonus character, As we was probably added really late


Why Weren’t Other Veteran 3rd parties Artwork changed, but Banjo’s Was?


-For the Veteran 3rd parties, They were already represented in the past and it might be easier to talk to them and get their input on the Art. Banjo is from Microsoft, which would have been at the timea Brand New Company, and a Western One at that.


Why did the Leak Surface Very late into Base Game Speculation, instead of Early on Like Gematsu

-That I’m not sure. What I will say is up until the Final November Direct, both the Real Roster and Grinch Leak Roster lined up perfectly, and Especially with Ken being Leaked in that 4Chan Pic, it seemed The Leak was gonna become reality. It was time to take Credibility.


Was Everyone is Here Planned that early?

-Yes. With how Well veterans did on the Ballot, it’s likely that while the reboot Idea was considered, Everyone is Here probably was decided pretty Quickly

I think the Grinch Roster might have been a Very Optimistic look on a Roster that would have Everyone is Here, along with a more Generous amount of Newcomers (even then, with only 11 of the Newcomers being unique, and 17 in Total, it would have been not as much as Other Games). When it was found the Newcomer count would have to be even more deflated, Cuts had to be made


How Does FP1 and FP2 relate to The Grinch Roster


-In a Hypothetical Scenario where Grinch Roster was the Real Roster, FP1 probably would look like this

Joker, Hero, Steve, Terry, Byleth

So Overall FP1 Likely would be the Same, except Banjo’s Spot would be Replaced

Shadow, Geno, and Banjo as the Appetizers to the Entree’s of Joker, Hero, and Steve would make some sense. Joker though probably wasn’t Considered till like 2017 considering how very Recent he is.

However in this Scenario, we might have also not have gotten another Microsoft Character in FP1, and Steve would still be in FP2. It’s unknown though

On FP2, We would have to see where it goes to comment on that, but Min-Min would definitely stay. Steve, if not in this Hypothetical FP1 would be in FP2.


Why was Shadow Cut?

Shadow is Weird because unlike the other Grinch Characters, Shadow was Implied to be an echo. However the likelest situation was that eventually it was determined he wouldn’t be an Echo, or at least not as Similar as the other Echoes. He would need more drastic Changes than the other Echoes (Definitely more than Ken even).



Why was Isaac and Shadow made Assists, don’t they deconfirm

Isaac and Shadow in this scenario were cut from the Base roster, and then were out-Prioritized heavily for FP1. FP2 wasn’t a Sure thing around even the launch of the game, and surely not anytime before. Sakurai and the Team still wanted these characters to have Big Roles in the game (especially since both were Assists Already in the Past), so they re-added their Assists.


FP2 is something Completely new to Smash, as we never had DLC go on this long, and also be this separated from the base game (since in Smash 4, at least Mewtwo seemed to have been planned as DLC some time before launch of the game). We shall see what happens in this Scenario

What about the Cut in the Art next to Little Mac, and how it related to Isaac’s Placement

That was Very Crazy. One thing I will say is that The Particular version of the Artwork was the last one in which the Grinch leak and the Real roster did not have any Conflicts in characters in the Art (this was when Isabelle was the latest Newcomer revealed). It’s possible that this version of the Art Might be using an Edited version of the Grinch Poster Art or something, and that’s why the cut was there.


What is this “Surprise Character” title used to refer to Mach Rider and Plant

https://i0.wp.com/www.sourcegaming.info/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Scan-Translation-3.png

This Picture showcases how Duck Hunt is Classified as the Surprise Character of Smash 4, meaning it seems to be a Role a Character fills on each Smash roster.

In this Scenario, if the Chadendorf Leak and Grinch Leak are taken as real things, Ray (01) and Mach Rider were Considered for this Role, before deciding on Plant, so it goes like this


Ray (01) >> Mach Rider >> Piranha Plant (Character ultimately Decided on)



Are these the Only Characters considered for the Roster


Likely not, there were probably other characters considered (Not Including ones mentioned by Sakurai himself like Decidueye and Alucard)

The Grinch Characters however seemed to be the Cut Characters that got the Furthest ahead to being Playable, before being Scrapped.


Why was Banjo Moved to DLC?

Of all the characters, It seems Banjo had the most merit. He was one of the most Requested characters, Is a New Franchise, and comes from a New Company in Microsoft. Steve might have also looked much harder to Implement compared to Banjo, and Since Hero was in the Pass, they had their very Big character, so Steve wasn’t as needed.

Nintendo said they were very Surprised at the Reaction to Banjo, Which for Characters like Geno and Isaac, could be a very good sign. Also keep in Mine FP2 was apparently green lit around June of 2019, after Hero and Banjo’s Reveals

Spoiler: Can the Cut Characters Make a Comeback in FP2?

(Note: this also includes the Cut Characters in the Chadendorf leak)

-Ray (01) and Mach Rider are Likely done.

-Chorus Kids are a New Nintendo Franchise, and have a Cool mechanic with Rhythm, but it’s REALLY up in the air if they have a shot, especially since the Franchise is not even on Switch and not relevant. While it also has had Demand, it’s not the hugest ever


-Dixie has had heavy Demand, and Still has Demand even now. She can also use The Scrapped tag Mechanic with Kiddy. DK has already gotten a New Character, so might be an harder Sell, however Geno is also a huge Talking point, and we’ve gotten TWO Mario characters already


-Isaac and Shadow have heavy Demand, Isaac, Especially. Both these characters are Assists. Whether that’s good or bad is up to you. In any case, if Playable they could re-use their Assist Models and have them touched up. Min-Min and Steve also heavily re-use Models so it would be going by the Trends
-Isaac Already has Mii Costume. Whether that’s good or bad is up to you. It’s a base game Mii Costume

-Rumors and New Trademarks point towards a New Golden Sun game happening, or at least a Remake. Isaac could fulfill the role of Byleth and be the character from a Game “People are Playing now”. Golden Sun is also a New Franchise in the same way ARMS was

-Shadow is Probably the Most Mainstream character of these characters, along with Hunter and Dixie. Shadow however comes from Represented Franchise already, however Sonic has not gotten a New Character since Sonic himself in Brawl

-Tails and Knuckles are Mii Costumes, and DLC ones at that. Whether that’s good or bad is up to you. Keep in mind that they were in the First Pack. It’s rumored Fighter pass 2 was greenlit around June 2019, 2 Months after Tails and Knuckles’s Costumes were made available

-Geno Has good amount of Circumstansial Evidence, and his Mii Costume is missing. He also has HEAVY Smash fan Demand, and also rumors of SMRPG Remake or Sequel


-Monster Hunter World Came out in 2018, and put the franchise on the map in the West, meaning Monster Hunter got more merit than when Base roster and FP1 were being decided. Two Exclusive Switch MH Games coming 2021. Mii Costumes still missing

Spoiler: Conclusions

There’s Some holes in this Theory, and honestly some of this is probably a Stretch, but it was interesting to Analyze and Dissect this leak 2 Years later. We also don’t have 100% confirmation of who did it. There was that 4chan post, but it wasn’t concrete of whether that post was telling the truth in that they made the leak.

The things I’m not sure about is that

1.The Initial Post I Believe came from a Snapchat Post, How don’t know how that would affect things?

2.How long did the Pic exist for?

3.Who was Chadendorf (since his post existed before Grinch leak)? Was he Mariotehplumber?

4.While Marina PLV said they weren’t connected to the launch of Smash Ultimate, were they connected Pre-release? Also how did ACP-PLV factor into things?

I would say from a Logical Standpoint, I would argue all the characters in the Grinch Leak being considered is very Likely, and even the characters In the Chadendorf Leak (Dixie and Monster Hunter in Particular) were very likely to be considered.


If there are more Questions you want to ask, Post them, or any other Info I Might have missed

I think you just need to look up Occam's Razor.

It's much more likely the Grinch leak is just fake.

 

[TwiceEXE]

The Grinch Leak wasn’t fake, but like Gematsu, It was heavily outdated.

You clearly put a lot of effort into this so I don't want to dismiss your work with a quip, but "Grinch Leak is real" is really not a take I expected to see nearing the start of 2021.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Okay, So I Posted this in the Geno thread, and I thought I Post it here too. If you guys are bored, perhaps you could find this Analysis interesting, about the 2 Year old "Leak": The Grinch Leak

Okay, So I think I will have to update this Theory eventually, (I Also need to write a TL;DR but I don't know how to shorten all of this), but here is My Theory on the Grinch leak actually being real, but Outdated

The Most Important parts are the "Potential Questions and Answer" Part, and also the Notable characters absent (which explain why Incineroar and Plant were not in the Grinch Leak. The Potential Questions and Answer section goes more in depth with the absent characters and such

Also the Conclusion part is important. Everything else is important to, but take note of those 3 Sections


The Grinch Leak wasn’t fake, but like Gematsu, It was heavily outdated.

This suggests that Geno, Isaac, Banjo, Mach Rider, Chorus Kids, and Shadow would have been in the base roster of Ultimate. Ken is not counted as he was on the base roster of Ultimate nevertheless

Spoiler: Evidence Towards the Characters being considered for Roster

-Chorus Kids were planned to be in Smash 4, if gematsu and the datamine of Smash 4 is to be believed, but were cut for unknown reasons. Since Chrom the other character that was on gematsu that ended up not being playable in Smash 4, became playable in Ultimate, there’s a likely scenario that Chorus Kids were once again planned for Ultimate

-Chorus Kids also have the most spirits of any Franchise not represented with a character, with Golden Sun also taking that mantle

-Speaking of Golden Sun, Isaac returned as an Assist Trophy, and the Assist Trophy was also upgraded.

-Isaac also got a Mii Costume.

-Geno has a Spirit in the game. Along with Mallow, Geno is the only Square character represented in base game that’s not Cloud

-Mach Rider also fits the Format of the Surprise Character of the game, which is the Format the Bonus Character, Piranha Plant, also shares

-While not Mach Rider specifically, another Nintendo character known for using their bikes was considered in Melee: Excite Biker. Perhaps a Character that prominently uses their bike was considered once again for Ultimate. (Considering in this game we Also Got Ditto as a Pokeball which was planned in Melee, and Banjo as Playable character)

-Shadow’s Assist Function was improved and changed. He uses the emerald and has Increase in function.

-Knuckles is also an Assist Trophy. Also one thing to notice is how much Assets Knuckles re-uses (he Uses a Homing Attack for instance, and Some animations are shared)

-On the Assist thing, both Shadow and Isaac were shown Last Minute, so they were deemed notable to share

-For Banjo, The talk for another Microsoft character, Steve, was in plan for around 5 years. Likely chance that it was around the Time Ultimate’s first planning was beginning. Considering how requested Banjo was, this could be a sign. It could have been a Case where Both Banjo and Steve were planned to be in, and Banjo would be Base and Steve would be FP1.

-Rare Spirits were in the game’s data at launch

Spoiler: Notable Characters Absent from Grinch Leak (and Why)

Incineroar: A Spot was saved for a Gen 7 Pokemon, but it wasn’t known exactly who, so for the Grinch Picture, Incinearoar couldn’t be Present

Piranha Plant: A Likely chance that it wasn’t planned initially. Mach Rider might have been intended to be the Suprise character, but for whatever reason it couldn’t work out. Plant took it’s place.

Steve: Was in talks for 5 years. There may have been a Plan for Banjo to be base roster, and Steve to be FP1. This also makes sense from a mechanical standpoint. Banjo is much more simple character in terms of Mechanics compared to Steve, so for Base game Development, Banjo would be easier to develop along with the game, compared to Steve.

Spoiler: Why were the Grinch Leak Characters Cut?

If this Scenario was real, why was Geno, Isaac, Shadow, Chorus Kids, and Mach Rider Cut? And Banjo moved to FP1?


-The game might have been planned to have More Newcomers than Planned. Even in the scenario all 6 of these characters would be base roster), that would only be 11 unique newcomers, which is not that much in comparison to other games. This is also indicating Shadow were to be an echo. The Final Base Newcomer Roster would look like this


Unique: Inkling, Ridley, Simon, King K.Rool, Isabelle, Incineroar, Geno, Isaac, Banjo, Chorus Kids, Mach Rider

Echoes: Daisy, Richter, Chrom, Dark Samus, Ken, Shadow


This would be a total of 17 Newcomers, which is the same amount as Smash 4, though only 11 of them are unique (and with Isabelle being a Semi-Clone, only 10 would be completely unique)

-The Work of Bringing every character back however proved to be too much for even this amount of Newcomers, so Cuts had to be made. Why to these Specific characters, and why Was Banjo moved to FP1


-Chorus Kids, Isaac, and Mach Rider absolutely would need New Stages to represent them. Because the New stage count was So short at only 4 New stages for the Base game, New Franchises were at a Disadvantage. 2 of these Franchises (Golden Sun, Mach Rider) were dormant. At the time Rhythm heaven was still living, however it could not compare to The Breakout hit of Splatoon, and the Legacy and request of Castlvania.


-Geno could be argued whether he really needs a New Stage or Not. in any case, being owned by a 3rd party, perhaps there were more licensing costs associated with him than characters included in. He’s also less relevant and known than any of the base game newcomers.


-Shadow probably was planned to be an echo, though eventually it was found out he’d need much more substantial changes, that he wouldn’t be an echo anymore, whether it be at Sega’s Request or Sakurai’s Request. He was then out- prioritized


-Banjo probably did have some licensing cost towards him, and of course being a New Franchise he’d have to have a new stage. For these reasons, was not prioritized for Base roster, but he had enough merit to be moved to FP1 and be sold as DLC

Spoiler: Why were the Cut Characters not in FP1?

-Banjo made it to FP1, so he’s not in the Equation

-Isaac and Mach Rider were dormant Franchises, so they were at heavy disadvantage. Mach rider is at More because unlike Isaac, he doesn’t have the heavy fan demand.

-Geno was Heavily Out-Prioritized by Hero from Dragon quest. Also technically being a Mario Character, he’s not from a New Franchise

-Chorus Kids at the time might not have had a future, so yeah

-Shadow is from a Represented Franchise, like with Geno. Probably also was Out Prioritized by Joker

Spoiler: Other Cut characters (Chadendorf Leak)

-The Chadendorf leak, which was tied with the Grinch Leak, says that Dixie, Monster Hunter, and Ray (01) were cut. Why were these characters cut very Early

-Dixie probably was heavily out-Prioritized by King K.Rool. If she were playable, she might have brought with her the Scrapped Tag mechanic she was supposed to have with Diddy in brawl, but with Kiddy. Her Legend Spirit being her and Kiddy might suggest this


-Monster Hunter might have been fit not to work, perhaps in moveset or something, it’s weird. With Rathalos being a Boss and an Assist, There had to be some consideration of the Hunter. There’s also something to note about Ken being an echo in the game. There probably was consideration for a Full Newcomer from Capcom. It wasn’t meant to be

-Ray (01) Probably was considered because he was a Mech Character. He might have been one of those Suprise Characters, however with how Super Niche he is, was scrapped very early. Was turned into a Mii Costume though


Here’s Picture: https://imgur.com/Ppi80iw

https://imgur.com/Ppi80iw

Spoiler: Timeline of Events (My Hypothesis)

First Round

-Inkling, Ridley, New DK Rep (K.Rool or Dixie, or perhaps Both), Steve, Castlevania (Belmonts or Alucard), Chorus Kids, Isaac, Geno, Gen 7 Pokemon (it would be coming out soon), Isabelle, Weird Character (Ray (01) or Mach Rider, or Perhaps both), Monster Hunter


Echoes may or may not have been decided this early too, if So


-Daisy, Chrom, Dark Samus, Ken, Shadow

Dixie and Isabelle might have been considered for Echo Spots as well



Second Round

-Dixie, Monster Hunter, and Ray (01) are Cut

-King K.Rool, The Belmonts, and Mach Rider might have been decided from this point on

-Richter is then added as an Echo

-Steve might have been deemed hard to Implement, Banjo is then in talks



So “Final Roster” is

-Inkling, Ridley, Simon, King K.Rool, Isabelle, Geno, Isaac, Banjo, Chorus Kids, Mach Rider, Gen 7 Pokemon

-Daisy, Richter, Chrom, Dark Samus, Ken, Shadow as echoes



Final Round

-Geno, Isaac, Banjo, Chorus Kids, Mach Rider, Shadow are Cut

-Incineroar is Decided as the Gen 7 Pokemon

-Later down the line when FP1 is being decided, Banjo is Brought up again as an option, and is successful in securing a spot

Spoiler: Potential Questions to the Theory (and some Answers)

When Would the Grinch Characters have gotten cut?

-They would have gotten cut somewhere around 2016, before Full development would have begun. One interesting tidbit is that the Marina PLV, an art studio that the Alleged leaker was traced too confirmed he Worked there until November of 2016. Marina PLV has confirmed Namco was one of their Clients. Here is their statement on the matter

"Rumors of privacy leakage on the latest version of the game Super Smash Bros. report a connection with our company. All these rumors only support one idea, journalism is not limited to doing a search on Google. Indeed, the person incriminated in this "rumor", if it is it, is no longer present in our company since November 2016. Having not updated his profile updated, some have wanted to make a connection with the Marina Workshops that can not exist. Namco is a company we have worked with and want to rework with, this is not currently the case for the launch of Super Smash Bros Ultimate. These rumors are therefore a discredit on our professionalism widely recognized, especially with respect to our commitments on confidentiality. We are currently contacting all these sites and Namco / Nintendo to remove this false information and assess the judicial follow-up. The Marina team."


They did say they didn’t not work with the LAUNCH of Super Smash bros Ultimate, but the wording of launch is key. It’s possible that they may have worked with them in the PRE-Stages of Ultimate.




There are details of the Grinch Leak that don’t match up with the Official Artworks. Locations are changed, notably Ken’s, Banjo’s Art is Completely Different, and the Actual Background is Different


-Locations are shown to Change with every character either Taken off or Added. The DLC Prove this. Banjo’s Pose being different can be due to the fact that Banjo are 3rd party and Microsoft. Perhaps Microsoft/Rare wanted Banjo’s Pose to maybe be more Dynamic, So it was changed. As for the Background, could have been beta background, and decided to make changes to make it more Appealing


Why is Incineroar and Plant Missing from the Artwork

-Gen 7 Pokemon had a Roster Slot saved for them, but it wasn’t exactly known who the actual Pokemon would be. It was a decision between Decidueye and Incineroar, and Incineroar was Picked, but probably after this Banner was made


-As For Plant, It probably wasn’t planned initially. Plant is classified as the Suprise character of the Game, however it’s likely Mach Rider was planned to take that role. This also could be why Plant is a Bonus character, As we was probably added really late


Why Weren’t Other Veteran 3rd parties Artwork changed, but Banjo’s Was?


-For the Veteran 3rd parties, They were already represented in the past and it might be easier to talk to them and get their input on the Art. Banjo is from Microsoft, which would have been at the timea Brand New Company, and a Western One at that.


Why did the Leak Surface Very late into Base Game Speculation, instead of Early on Like Gematsu

-That I’m not sure. What I will say is up until the Final November Direct, both the Real Roster and Grinch Leak Roster lined up perfectly, and Especially with Ken being Leaked in that 4Chan Pic, it seemed The Leak was gonna become reality. It was time to take Credibility.


Was Everyone is Here Planned that early?

-Yes. With how Well veterans did on the Ballot, it’s likely that while the reboot Idea was considered, Everyone is Here probably was decided pretty Quickly

I think the Grinch Roster might have been a Very Optimistic look on a Roster that would have Everyone is Here, along with a more Generous amount of Newcomers (even then, with only 11 of the Newcomers being unique, and 17 in Total, it would have been not as much as Other Games). When it was found the Newcomer count would have to be even more deflated, Cuts had to be made


How Does FP1 and FP2 relate to The Grinch Roster


-In a Hypothetical Scenario where Grinch Roster was the Real Roster, FP1 probably would look like this

Joker, Hero, Steve, Terry, Byleth

So Overall FP1 Likely would be the Same, except Banjo’s Spot would be Replaced

Shadow, Geno, and Banjo as the Appetizers to the Entree’s of Joker, Hero, and Steve would make some sense. Joker though probably wasn’t Considered till like 2017 considering how very Recent he is.

However in this Scenario, we might have also not have gotten another Microsoft Character in FP1, and Steve would still be in FP2. It’s unknown though

On FP2, We would have to see where it goes to comment on that, but Min-Min would definitely stay. Steve, if not in this Hypothetical FP1 would be in FP2.


Why was Shadow Cut?

Shadow is Weird because unlike the other Grinch Characters, Shadow was Implied to be an echo. However the likelest situation was that eventually it was determined he wouldn’t be an Echo, or at least not as Similar as the other Echoes. He would need more drastic Changes than the other Echoes (Definitely more than Ken even).



Why was Isaac and Shadow made Assists, don’t they deconfirm

Isaac and Shadow in this scenario were cut from the Base roster, and then were out-Prioritized heavily for FP1. FP2 wasn’t a Sure thing around even the launch of the game, and surely not anytime before. Sakurai and the Team still wanted these characters to have Big Roles in the game (especially since both were Assists Already in the Past), so they re-added their Assists.


FP2 is something Completely new to Smash, as we never had DLC go on this long, and also be this separated from the base game (since in Smash 4, at least Mewtwo seemed to have been planned as DLC some time before launch of the game). We shall see what happens in this Scenario

What about the Cut in the Art next to Little Mac, and how it related to Isaac’s Placement

That was Very Crazy. One thing I will say is that The Particular version of the Artwork was the last one in which the Grinch leak and the Real roster did not have any Conflicts in characters in the Art (this was when Isabelle was the latest Newcomer revealed). It’s possible that this version of the Art Might be using an Edited version of the Grinch Poster Art or something, and that’s why the cut was there.


What is this “Surprise Character” title used to refer to Mach Rider and Plant

https://i0.wp.com/www.sourcegaming.info/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Scan-Translation-3.png

This Picture showcases how Duck Hunt is Classified as the Surprise Character of Smash 4, meaning it seems to be a Role a Character fills on each Smash roster.

In this Scenario, if the Chadendorf Leak and Grinch Leak are taken as real things, Ray (01) and Mach Rider were Considered for this Role, before deciding on Plant, so it goes like this


Ray (01) >> Mach Rider >> Piranha Plant (Character ultimately Decided on)



Are these the Only Characters considered for the Roster


Likely not, there were probably other characters considered (Not Including ones mentioned by Sakurai himself like Decidueye and Alucard)

The Grinch Characters however seemed to be the Cut Characters that got the Furthest ahead to being Playable, before being Scrapped.


Why was Banjo Moved to DLC?

Of all the characters, It seems Banjo had the most merit. He was one of the most Requested characters, Is a New Franchise, and comes from a New Company in Microsoft. Steve might have also looked much harder to Implement compared to Banjo, and Since Hero was in the Pass, they had their very Big character, so Steve wasn’t as needed.

Nintendo said they were very Surprised at the Reaction to Banjo, Which for Characters like Geno and Isaac, could be a very good sign. Also keep in Mine FP2 was apparently green lit around June of 2019, after Hero and Banjo’s Reveals

Spoiler: Can the Cut Characters Make a Comeback in FP2?

(Note: this also includes the Cut Characters in the Chadendorf leak)

-Ray (01) and Mach Rider are Likely done.

-Chorus Kids are a New Nintendo Franchise, and have a Cool mechanic with Rhythm, but it’s REALLY up in the air if they have a shot, especially since the Franchise is not even on Switch and not relevant. While it also has had Demand, it’s not the hugest ever


-Dixie has had heavy Demand, and Still has Demand even now. She can also use The Scrapped tag Mechanic with Kiddy. DK has already gotten a New Character, so might be an harder Sell, however Geno is also a huge Talking point, and we’ve gotten TWO Mario characters already


-Isaac and Shadow have heavy Demand, Isaac, Especially. Both these characters are Assists. Whether that’s good or bad is up to you. In any case, if Playable they could re-use their Assist Models and have them touched up. Min-Min and Steve also heavily re-use Models so it would be going by the Trends
-Isaac Already has Mii Costume. Whether that’s good or bad is up to you. It’s a base game Mii Costume

-Rumors and New Trademarks point towards a New Golden Sun game happening, or at least a Remake. Isaac could fulfill the role of Byleth and be the character from a Game “People are Playing now”. Golden Sun is also a New Franchise in the same way ARMS was

-Shadow is Probably the Most Mainstream character of these characters, along with Hunter and Dixie. Shadow however comes from Represented Franchise already, however Sonic has not gotten a New Character since Sonic himself in Brawl

-Tails and Knuckles are Mii Costumes, and DLC ones at that. Whether that’s good or bad is up to you. Keep in mind that they were in the First Pack. It’s rumored Fighter pass 2 was greenlit around June 2019, 2 Months after Tails and Knuckles’s Costumes were made available

-Geno Has good amount of Circumstansial Evidence, and his Mii Costume is missing. He also has HEAVY Smash fan Demand, and also rumors of SMRPG Remake or Sequel


-Monster Hunter World Came out in 2018, and put the franchise on the map in the West, meaning Monster Hunter got more merit than when Base roster and FP1 were being decided. Two Exclusive Switch MH Games coming 2021. Mii Costumes still missing

Spoiler: Conclusions

There’s Some holes in this Theory, and honestly some of this is probably a Stretch, but it was interesting to Analyze and Dissect this leak 2 Years later. We also don’t have 100% confirmation of who did it. There was that 4chan post, but it wasn’t concrete of whether that post was telling the truth in that they made the leak.

The things I’m not sure about is that

1.The Initial Post I Believe came from a Snapchat Post, How don’t know how that would affect things?

2.How long did the Pic exist for?

3.Who was Chadendorf (since his post existed before Grinch leak)? Was he Mariotehplumber?

4.While Marina PLV said they weren’t connected to the launch of Smash Ultimate, were they connected Pre-release? Also how did ACP-PLV factor into things?

I would say from a Logical Standpoint, I would argue all the characters in the Grinch Leak being considered is very Likely, and even the characters In the Chadendorf Leak (Dixie and Monster Hunter in Particular) were very likely to be considered.


If there are more Questions you want to ask, Post them, or any other Info I Might have missed

it's not that deep, I still maintain that someone with a lot of cash to blow commissioned someone to do that

 

[GoodGrief741]

Okay, So I Posted this in the Geno thread, and I thought I Post it here too. If you guys are bored, perhaps you could find this Analysis interesting, about the 2 Year old "Leak": The Grinch Leak

Okay, So I think I will have to update this Theory eventually, (I Also need to write a TL;DR but I don't know how to shorten all of this), but here is My Theory on the Grinch leak actually being real, but Outdated

The Most Important parts are the "Potential Questions and Answer" Part, and also the Notable characters absent (which explain why Incineroar and Plant were not in the Grinch Leak. The Potential Questions and Answer section goes more in depth with the absent characters and such

Also the Conclusion part is important. Everything else is important to, but take note of those 3 Sections


The Grinch Leak wasn’t fake, but like Gematsu, It was heavily outdated.

This suggests that Geno, Isaac, Banjo, Mach Rider, Chorus Kids, and Shadow would have been in the base roster of Ultimate. Ken is not counted as he was on the base roster of Ultimate nevertheless

Spoiler: Evidence Towards the Characters being considered for Roster

-Chorus Kids were planned to be in Smash 4, if gematsu and the datamine of Smash 4 is to be believed, but were cut for unknown reasons. Since Chrom the other character that was on gematsu that ended up not being playable in Smash 4, became playable in Ultimate, there’s a likely scenario that Chorus Kids were once again planned for Ultimate

-Chorus Kids also have the most spirits of any Franchise not represented with a character, with Golden Sun also taking that mantle

-Speaking of Golden Sun, Isaac returned as an Assist Trophy, and the Assist Trophy was also upgraded.

-Isaac also got a Mii Costume.

-Geno has a Spirit in the game. Along with Mallow, Geno is the only Square character represented in base game that’s not Cloud

-Mach Rider also fits the Format of the Surprise Character of the game, which is the Format the Bonus Character, Piranha Plant, also shares

-While not Mach Rider specifically, another Nintendo character known for using their bikes was considered in Melee: Excite Biker. Perhaps a Character that prominently uses their bike was considered once again for Ultimate. (Considering in this game we Also Got Ditto as a Pokeball which was planned in Melee, and Banjo as Playable character)

-Shadow’s Assist Function was improved and changed. He uses the emerald and has Increase in function.

-Knuckles is also an Assist Trophy. Also one thing to notice is how much Assets Knuckles re-uses (he Uses a Homing Attack for instance, and Some animations are shared)

-On the Assist thing, both Shadow and Isaac were shown Last Minute, so they were deemed notable to share

-For Banjo, The talk for another Microsoft character, Steve, was in plan for around 5 years. Likely chance that it was around the Time Ultimate’s first planning was beginning. Considering how requested Banjo was, this could be a sign. It could have been a Case where Both Banjo and Steve were planned to be in, and Banjo would be Base and Steve would be FP1.

-Rare Spirits were in the game’s data at launch

Spoiler: Notable Characters Absent from Grinch Leak (and Why)

Incineroar: A Spot was saved for a Gen 7 Pokemon, but it wasn’t known exactly who, so for the Grinch Picture, Incinearoar couldn’t be Present

Piranha Plant: A Likely chance that it wasn’t planned initially. Mach Rider might have been intended to be the Suprise character, but for whatever reason it couldn’t work out. Plant took it’s place.

Steve: Was in talks for 5 years. There may have been a Plan for Banjo to be base roster, and Steve to be FP1. This also makes sense from a mechanical standpoint. Banjo is much more simple character in terms of Mechanics compared to Steve, so for Base game Development, Banjo would be easier to develop along with the game, compared to Steve.

Spoiler: Why were the Grinch Leak Characters Cut?

If this Scenario was real, why was Geno, Isaac, Shadow, Chorus Kids, and Mach Rider Cut? And Banjo moved to FP1?


-The game might have been planned to have More Newcomers than Planned. Even in the scenario all 6 of these characters would be base roster), that would only be 11 unique newcomers, which is not that much in comparison to other games. This is also indicating Shadow were to be an echo. The Final Base Newcomer Roster would look like this


Unique: Inkling, Ridley, Simon, King K.Rool, Isabelle, Incineroar, Geno, Isaac, Banjo, Chorus Kids, Mach Rider

Echoes: Daisy, Richter, Chrom, Dark Samus, Ken, Shadow


This would be a total of 17 Newcomers, which is the same amount as Smash 4, though only 11 of them are unique (and with Isabelle being a Semi-Clone, only 10 would be completely unique)

-The Work of Bringing every character back however proved to be too much for even this amount of Newcomers, so Cuts had to be made. Why to these Specific characters, and why Was Banjo moved to FP1


-Chorus Kids, Isaac, and Mach Rider absolutely would need New Stages to represent them. Because the New stage count was So short at only 4 New stages for the Base game, New Franchises were at a Disadvantage. 2 of these Franchises (Golden Sun, Mach Rider) were dormant. At the time Rhythm heaven was still living, however it could not compare to The Breakout hit of Splatoon, and the Legacy and request of Castlvania.


-Geno could be argued whether he really needs a New Stage or Not. in any case, being owned by a 3rd party, perhaps there were more licensing costs associated with him than characters included in. He’s also less relevant and known than any of the base game newcomers.


-Shadow probably was planned to be an echo, though eventually it was found out he’d need much more substantial changes, that he wouldn’t be an echo anymore, whether it be at Sega’s Request or Sakurai’s Request. He was then out- prioritized


-Banjo probably did have some licensing cost towards him, and of course being a New Franchise he’d have to have a new stage. For these reasons, was not prioritized for Base roster, but he had enough merit to be moved to FP1 and be sold as DLC

Spoiler: Why were the Cut Characters not in FP1?

-Banjo made it to FP1, so he’s not in the Equation

-Isaac and Mach Rider were dormant Franchises, so they were at heavy disadvantage. Mach rider is at More because unlike Isaac, he doesn’t have the heavy fan demand.

-Geno was Heavily Out-Prioritized by Hero from Dragon quest. Also technically being a Mario Character, he’s not from a New Franchise

-Chorus Kids at the time might not have had a future, so yeah

-Shadow is from a Represented Franchise, like with Geno. Probably also was Out Prioritized by Joker

Spoiler: Other Cut characters (Chadendorf Leak)

-The Chadendorf leak, which was tied with the Grinch Leak, says that Dixie, Monster Hunter, and Ray (01) were cut. Why were these characters cut very Early

-Dixie probably was heavily out-Prioritized by King K.Rool. If she were playable, she might have brought with her the Scrapped Tag mechanic she was supposed to have with Diddy in brawl, but with Kiddy. Her Legend Spirit being her and Kiddy might suggest this


-Monster Hunter might have been fit not to work, perhaps in moveset or something, it’s weird. With Rathalos being a Boss and an Assist, There had to be some consideration of the Hunter. There’s also something to note about Ken being an echo in the game. There probably was consideration for a Full Newcomer from Capcom. It wasn’t meant to be

-Ray (01) Probably was considered because he was a Mech Character. He might have been one of those Suprise Characters, however with how Super Niche he is, was scrapped very early. Was turned into a Mii Costume though


Here’s Picture: https://imgur.com/Ppi80iw

https://imgur.com/Ppi80iw

Spoiler: Timeline of Events (My Hypothesis)

First Round

-Inkling, Ridley, New DK Rep (K.Rool or Dixie, or perhaps Both), Steve, Castlevania (Belmonts or Alucard), Chorus Kids, Isaac, Geno, Gen 7 Pokemon (it would be coming out soon), Isabelle, Weird Character (Ray (01) or Mach Rider, or Perhaps both), Monster Hunter


Echoes may or may not have been decided this early too, if So


-Daisy, Chrom, Dark Samus, Ken, Shadow

Dixie and Isabelle might have been considered for Echo Spots as well



Second Round

-Dixie, Monster Hunter, and Ray (01) are Cut

-King K.Rool, The Belmonts, and Mach Rider might have been decided from this point on

-Richter is then added as an Echo

-Steve might have been deemed hard to Implement, Banjo is then in talks



So “Final Roster” is

-Inkling, Ridley, Simon, King K.Rool, Isabelle, Geno, Isaac, Banjo, Chorus Kids, Mach Rider, Gen 7 Pokemon

-Daisy, Richter, Chrom, Dark Samus, Ken, Shadow as echoes



Final Round

-Geno, Isaac, Banjo, Chorus Kids, Mach Rider, Shadow are Cut

-Incineroar is Decided as the Gen 7 Pokemon

-Later down the line when FP1 is being decided, Banjo is Brought up again as an option, and is successful in securing a spot

Spoiler: Potential Questions to the Theory (and some Answers)

When Would the Grinch Characters have gotten cut?

-They would have gotten cut somewhere around 2016, before Full development would have begun. One interesting tidbit is that the Marina PLV, an art studio that the Alleged leaker was traced too confirmed he Worked there until November of 2016. Marina PLV has confirmed Namco was one of their Clients. Here is their statement on the matter

"Rumors of privacy leakage on the latest version of the game Super Smash Bros. report a connection with our company. All these rumors only support one idea, journalism is not limited to doing a search on Google. Indeed, the person incriminated in this "rumor", if it is it, is no longer present in our company since November 2016. Having not updated his profile updated, some have wanted to make a connection with the Marina Workshops that can not exist. Namco is a company we have worked with and want to rework with, this is not currently the case for the launch of Super Smash Bros Ultimate. These rumors are therefore a discredit on our professionalism widely recognized, especially with respect to our commitments on confidentiality. We are currently contacting all these sites and Namco / Nintendo to remove this false information and assess the judicial follow-up. The Marina team."


They did say they didn’t not work with the LAUNCH of Super Smash bros Ultimate, but the wording of launch is key. It’s possible that they may have worked with them in the PRE-Stages of Ultimate.




There are details of the Grinch Leak that don’t match up with the Official Artworks. Locations are changed, notably Ken’s, Banjo’s Art is Completely Different, and the Actual Background is Different


-Locations are shown to Change with every character either Taken off or Added. The DLC Prove this. Banjo’s Pose being different can be due to the fact that Banjo are 3rd party and Microsoft. Perhaps Microsoft/Rare wanted Banjo’s Pose to maybe be more Dynamic, So it was changed. As for the Background, could have been beta background, and decided to make changes to make it more Appealing


Why is Incineroar and Plant Missing from the Artwork

-Gen 7 Pokemon had a Roster Slot saved for them, but it wasn’t exactly known who the actual Pokemon would be. It was a decision between Decidueye and Incineroar, and Incineroar was Picked, but probably after this Banner was made


-As For Plant, It probably wasn’t planned initially. Plant is classified as the Suprise character of the Game, however it’s likely Mach Rider was planned to take that role. This also could be why Plant is a Bonus character, As we was probably added really late


Why Weren’t Other Veteran 3rd parties Artwork changed, but Banjo’s Was?


-For the Veteran 3rd parties, They were already represented in the past and it might be easier to talk to them and get their input on the Art. Banjo is from Microsoft, which would have been at the timea Brand New Company, and a Western One at that.


Why did the Leak Surface Very late into Base Game Speculation, instead of Early on Like Gematsu

-That I’m not sure. What I will say is up until the Final November Direct, both the Real Roster and Grinch Leak Roster lined up perfectly, and Especially with Ken being Leaked in that 4Chan Pic, it seemed The Leak was gonna become reality. It was time to take Credibility.


Was Everyone is Here Planned that early?

-Yes. With how Well veterans did on the Ballot, it’s likely that while the reboot Idea was considered, Everyone is Here probably was decided pretty Quickly

I think the Grinch Roster might have been a Very Optimistic look on a Roster that would have Everyone is Here, along with a more Generous amount of Newcomers (even then, with only 11 of the Newcomers being unique, and 17 in Total, it would have been not as much as Other Games). When it was found the Newcomer count would have to be even more deflated, Cuts had to be made


How Does FP1 and FP2 relate to The Grinch Roster


-In a Hypothetical Scenario where Grinch Roster was the Real Roster, FP1 probably would look like this

Joker, Hero, Steve, Terry, Byleth

So Overall FP1 Likely would be the Same, except Banjo’s Spot would be Replaced

Shadow, Geno, and Banjo as the Appetizers to the Entree’s of Joker, Hero, and Steve would make some sense. Joker though probably wasn’t Considered till like 2017 considering how very Recent he is.

However in this Scenario, we might have also not have gotten another Microsoft Character in FP1, and Steve would still be in FP2. It’s unknown though

On FP2, We would have to see where it goes to comment on that, but Min-Min would definitely stay. Steve, if not in this Hypothetical FP1 would be in FP2.


Why was Shadow Cut?

Shadow is Weird because unlike the other Grinch Characters, Shadow was Implied to be an echo. However the likelest situation was that eventually it was determined he wouldn’t be an Echo, or at least not as Similar as the other Echoes. He would need more drastic Changes than the other Echoes (Definitely more than Ken even).



Why was Isaac and Shadow made Assists, don’t they deconfirm

Isaac and Shadow in this scenario were cut from the Base roster, and then were out-Prioritized heavily for FP1. FP2 wasn’t a Sure thing around even the launch of the game, and surely not anytime before. Sakurai and the Team still wanted these characters to have Big Roles in the game (especially since both were Assists Already in the Past), so they re-added their Assists.


FP2 is something Completely new to Smash, as we never had DLC go on this long, and also be this separated from the base game (since in Smash 4, at least Mewtwo seemed to have been planned as DLC some time before launch of the game). We shall see what happens in this Scenario

What about the Cut in the Art next to Little Mac, and how it related to Isaac’s Placement

That was Very Crazy. One thing I will say is that The Particular version of the Artwork was the last one in which the Grinch leak and the Real roster did not have any Conflicts in characters in the Art (this was when Isabelle was the latest Newcomer revealed). It’s possible that this version of the Art Might be using an Edited version of the Grinch Poster Art or something, and that’s why the cut was there.


What is this “Surprise Character” title used to refer to Mach Rider and Plant

https://i0.wp.com/www.sourcegaming.info/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Scan-Translation-3.png

This Picture showcases how Duck Hunt is Classified as the Surprise Character of Smash 4, meaning it seems to be a Role a Character fills on each Smash roster.

In this Scenario, if the Chadendorf Leak and Grinch Leak are taken as real things, Ray (01) and Mach Rider were Considered for this Role, before deciding on Plant, so it goes like this


Ray (01) >> Mach Rider >> Piranha Plant (Character ultimately Decided on)



Are these the Only Characters considered for the Roster


Likely not, there were probably other characters considered (Not Including ones mentioned by Sakurai himself like Decidueye and Alucard)

The Grinch Characters however seemed to be the Cut Characters that got the Furthest ahead to being Playable, before being Scrapped.


Why was Banjo Moved to DLC?

Of all the characters, It seems Banjo had the most merit. He was one of the most Requested characters, Is a New Franchise, and comes from a New Company in Microsoft. Steve might have also looked much harder to Implement compared to Banjo, and Since Hero was in the Pass, they had their very Big character, so Steve wasn’t as needed.

Nintendo said they were very Surprised at the Reaction to Banjo, Which for Characters like Geno and Isaac, could be a very good sign. Also keep in Mine FP2 was apparently green lit around June of 2019, after Hero and Banjo’s Reveals

Spoiler: Can the Cut Characters Make a Comeback in FP2?

(Note: this also includes the Cut Characters in the Chadendorf leak)

-Ray (01) and Mach Rider are Likely done.

-Chorus Kids are a New Nintendo Franchise, and have a Cool mechanic with Rhythm, but it’s REALLY up in the air if they have a shot, especially since the Franchise is not even on Switch and not relevant. While it also has had Demand, it’s not the hugest ever


-Dixie has had heavy Demand, and Still has Demand even now. She can also use The Scrapped tag Mechanic with Kiddy. DK has already gotten a New Character, so might be an harder Sell, however Geno is also a huge Talking point, and we’ve gotten TWO Mario characters already


-Isaac and Shadow have heavy Demand, Isaac, Especially. Both these characters are Assists. Whether that’s good or bad is up to you. In any case, if Playable they could re-use their Assist Models and have them touched up. Min-Min and Steve also heavily re-use Models so it would be going by the Trends
-Isaac Already has Mii Costume. Whether that’s good or bad is up to you. It’s a base game Mii Costume

-Rumors and New Trademarks point towards a New Golden Sun game happening, or at least a Remake. Isaac could fulfill the role of Byleth and be the character from a Game “People are Playing now”. Golden Sun is also a New Franchise in the same way ARMS was

-Shadow is Probably the Most Mainstream character of these characters, along with Hunter and Dixie. Shadow however comes from Represented Franchise already, however Sonic has not gotten a New Character since Sonic himself in Brawl

-Tails and Knuckles are Mii Costumes, and DLC ones at that. Whether that’s good or bad is up to you. Keep in mind that they were in the First Pack. It’s rumored Fighter pass 2 was greenlit around June 2019, 2 Months after Tails and Knuckles’s Costumes were made available

-Geno Has good amount of Circumstansial Evidence, and his Mii Costume is missing. He also has HEAVY Smash fan Demand, and also rumors of SMRPG Remake or Sequel


-Monster Hunter World Came out in 2018, and put the franchise on the map in the West, meaning Monster Hunter got more merit than when Base roster and FP1 were being decided. Two Exclusive Switch MH Games coming 2021. Mii Costumes still missing

Spoiler: Conclusions

There’s Some holes in this Theory, and honestly some of this is probably a Stretch, but it was interesting to Analyze and Dissect this leak 2 Years later. We also don’t have 100% confirmation of who did it. There was that 4chan post, but it wasn’t concrete of whether that post was telling the truth in that they made the leak.

The things I’m not sure about is that

1.The Initial Post I Believe came from a Snapchat Post, How don’t know how that would affect things?

2.How long did the Pic exist for?

3.Who was Chadendorf (since his post existed before Grinch leak)? Was he Mariotehplumber?

4.While Marina PLV said they weren’t connected to the launch of Smash Ultimate, were they connected Pre-release? Also how did ACP-PLV factor into things?

I would say from a Logical Standpoint, I would argue all the characters in the Grinch Leak being considered is very Likely, and even the characters In the Chadendorf Leak (Dixie and Monster Hunter in Particular) were very likely to be considered.


If there are more Questions you want to ask, Post them, or any other Info I Might have missed

Nah dog that's just ridiculous. Why would they have made a banner and sent it out to printing & distribution before they finalized their ****ing roster? Not to mention the timeline makes no sense, there's no way they hadn't started development on Incineroar by the time the Grinch leak happened. There's also the infamous box that leaked the existence of only two more characters.

Those are just the problems that I thought of immediately, there surely are more. As someone who wishes we'd gotten those characters instead of what we unfortunately got, the Grinch Leak was a hoax. Which doesn't mean that some of those characters couldn't get in as DLC anyway, or that you shouldn't support them, just, you know, in a logical way.

 

[RileyXY1]

Nah dog that's just ridiculous. Why would they have made a banner and sent it out to printing & distribution before they finalized their ****ing roster? Not to mention the timeline makes no sense, there's no way they hadn't started development on Incineroar by the time the Grinch leak happened. Not to mention the infamous box that leaked the existence of only two more characters.

Those are just the problems that I thought of immediately, there surely are more. As someone who wishes we'd gotten those characters instead of what we unfortunately got, the Grinch Leak was a hoax. Which doesn't mean that some of those characters couldn't get in as DLC anyway, or that you shouldn't support them, just, you know, in a logical way.

Yeah. Especially considering that Incineroar had a unique moveset not used by any other characters.

 

[Idon]

I think you just need to look up Occam's Razor.

It's much more likely the Grinch leak is just fake.

Okay, hypothetically let's say it was fake.

It's the craziest person in the world going out of their way to make incredibly boring ads using keywords from the upcoming fighter pass because he's thinking 47 steps ahead and knows that both Namco-Bandai and Nintendo of Europe contract the same obscure California search-engine company. To this end, he then got himself an ad, typed out the name of fan requested characters, and haphazardly threw in a character that is not fully representative of the series he came from, once again, he's some kind of super genius beyond the mental capacities of mortal man and he knew that the internet's crack team of cybersleuths would find his red-herring name in seconds.

This absolute Einstein of social engineering also happens to moonlight as an expert predictor and after presumably spending seconds carefully typing a popular character's name from the Smash forums, he then went out of his way to produce 3 more advertisements of his own with obscure elements like the "-" for Banjo-Kazooie that hardly anyone would be able to make out, and then, for the fun of it, he saw to making a completely unique advertise request that lasted for months just because he could. He made sure that this fake roster of can only be viewed in Europe because he knew that search engine laws are different there and then paid money for months to wait until someone finds them. The fact that 4 new characters lines up with the 5 missing stages from Corocoro was all part of his master plan.

The lengths you have to go to believe that this is all an incredibly elaborate leak would make this man one of the most intelligent people to ever walk the Earth. Apparently he knew where people would look at every turn, making him at the minimum more competent than the entire government of Saudi Arabia when it comes to fakery

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

snip

7NATOR the Car Crash wasn't your fault, you have to let it go.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I think you just need to look up Occam's Razor.

It's much more likely the Grinch leak is just fake.

Goooood I remember seeing someone try to use Occam's Razor to prove Grinch was real. Why must this 2 year old tragedy still haunt us

 

[RileyXY1]

Goooood I remember seeing someone try to use Occam's Razor to prove Grinch was real. Why must this 2 year old tragedy still haunt us

The Grinch Leak was pure wish fulfillment.

 

[Goombaic]

7NATOR the Car Crash wasn't your fault, you have to let it go.

The signature makes this post so much better.

 

[7NATOR]

Nah dog that's just ridiculous. Why would they have made a banner and sent it out to printing & distribution before they finalized their ****ing roster? Not to mention the timeline makes no sense, there's no way they hadn't started development on Incineroar by the time the Grinch leak happened. There's also the infamous box that leaked the existence of only two more characters.

Those are just the problems that I thought of immediately, there surely are more. As someone who wishes we'd gotten those characters instead of what we unfortunately got, the Grinch Leak was a hoax. Which doesn't mean that some of those characters couldn't get in as DLC anyway, or that you shouldn't support them, just, you know, in a logical way.

I find it unlikely that the production of the banner would have started before all characters were known quantities. It affects composition and you'd want as few characters to be shoehorned in as possible.

Yeah that's a Hole I should have mentioned in the Conclusion tab. I'm guessing because it's digital Art that they could make the Art, and if the character is then cut they could delete them the print out the Updated copy. As for Incineroar, It's possible he was one of the last characters finished, becuase Gen 7 Pokemon was still in decision making when this Alledged poster was made in 2016. but they figure it out after

Well that's an argument i could see, but honestly there is alot of stretching you have to do to make the Grinch leak Real. I'm just interested in how this leak was pulled off though, and whether MariotehPlumber had something to do with it. Also I'm kinda glad the Grinch Roster wasn't real, Because that would mean Shadow would be an echo and that's my Worst Nightmare, because I want him as unique character.

in any case I was bored and wanted to do this analysis. I'm glad you guys are inputing your thoughts, even if you guys think this theory is some bunk and stuff

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

As for Incineroar, It's possible he was one of the last characters finished, becuase Gen 7 Pokemon was still in decision making when this Alledged poster was made in 2016...

Uh, wait...The poster production was supposed to have happened in 2016? They didn't reveal the game until 2018, why would they be making promotional material 2 years before the official reveal? Also, if the game's production started around the time of Bayonetta's reveal or something, then the game would be only a year or two in development, which would be way too soon for promotional materials to be made. Right?

EDIT: Also, if they were planning on distributing posters, then wouldn't we have seen them already? Obviously they wouldn't be those same posters, but you'd think they'd make ones with the actual base roster on them.

 

[SharkLord]

So, seeing as I've been gone the past week, anything important I missed?

Falcom talk.

There was some other stuff but Falcom is the only thing that's important.

 

[GoodGrief741]

It's certainly an interesting concept, though I'm not sure how feasible it would be since you'd essentially be making 3 or more characters who's attacks have to be balanced both individually and together. Not sure the high workload and balancing nightmare would be worth it.

I mean, does it matter if they're not balanced? They're custom characters. In fact, aren't Mii Fighters only allowed in competitive play using specific combinations of moves? If so, then nothing changes really, there would just be more moves banned.

Goooood I remember seeing someone try to use Occam's Razor to prove Grinch was real. Why must this 2 year old tragedy still haunt us

That... might have been me. It sounds like something I'd have said.

 

[7NATOR]

Uh, wait...The poster production was supposed to have happened in 2016? They didn't reveal the game until 2018, why would they be making promotional material 2 years before the official reveal? Also, if the game's production started around the time of Bayonetta's reveal or something, then the game would be only a year or two in development, which would be way too soon for promotional materials to be made. Right?

EDIT: Also, if they were planning on distributing posters, then wouldn't we have seen them already? Obviously they wouldn't be those same posters, but you'd think they'd make ones with the actual base roster on them.

Well to counter argue, I guess they wanted to be ahead. Perhaps it was like a Test run of what the Promotional Material would be like in the future, using at the time the Decided Roster. I would assume one of the planned things in the project plan is how to Promote the game after all

or something like that

 

[GoodGrief741]

Well to counter argue, I guess they wanted to be ahead. Perhaps it was like a Test run of what the Promotional Material would be like in the future, using at the time the Decided Roster. I would assume one of the planned things in the project plan is how to Promote the game after all

or something like that

You don't make test runs of promotional material. That's a waste of money, and is begging for unnecessary leaks.

 

[SpectreJordan]

Music is probably the biggest weak point of DK representation (well the lack of playable Dixie as well). A lot of the tracks after the original DKC get ignored, and Jungle Hijinks is fairly overused. Stages aren't much better with no non-DKC1 outside 75m. Nothing from DKC2, 3, or Tropical Freeze with the Jungle Beat and Returns levels not coming back either. Its doing better than certain other IP's, but there's a lot of room for improvement.

Ah, that music thing definitely makes sense. I was mainly thinking about stages & characters.

Happy Halloween!

There was a problem fetching the tweet

My question to you guys today, what would be your most wanted Halloween themed characters for Smash? Doesn't have to be likely either.

I'll start:

Ashley
King Boo
Morrigan Aensland
Gooigi (Echo)
Resident Evil Characters (Chris/Jill/Leon/Claire)

Jill/Leon/Claire
Alucard
Morrigan
Fulgore
Luigi with more Mansion moves (in the next Smash)

 

[Cosmic77]

Okay, hypothetically let's say it was fake.

It's the craziest person in the world going out of their way to make incredibly boring ads using keywords from the upcoming fighter pass because he's thinking 47 steps ahead and knows that both Namco-Bandai and Nintendo of Europe contract the same obscure California search-engine company. To this end, he then got himself an ad, typed out the name of fan requested characters, and haphazardly threw in a character that is not fully representative of the series he came from, once again, he's some kind of super genius beyond the mental capacities of mortal man and he knew that the internet's crack team of cybersleuths would find his red-herring name in seconds.

This absolute Einstein of social engineering also happens to moonlight as an expert predictor and after presumably spending seconds carefully typing a popular character's name from the Smash forums, he then went out of his way to produce 3 more advertisements of his own with obscure elements like the "-" for Banjo-Kazooie that hardly anyone would be able to make out, and then, for the fun of it, he saw to making a completely unique advertise request that lasted for months just because he could. He made sure that this fake roster of can only be viewed in Europe because he knew that search engine laws are different there and then paid money for months to wait until someone finds them. The fact that 4 new characters lines up with the 5 missing stages from Corocoro was all part of his master plan.

The lengths you have to go to believe that this is all an incredibly elaborate leak would make this man one of the most intelligent people to ever walk the Earth. Apparently he knew where people would look at every turn, making him at the minimum more competent than the entire government of Saudi Arabia when it comes to fakery

Ughhh... This just reminds me how crappy it was to be on Team Fake. Some people were more understanding and nicer than others, but it never took long before you encountered an overconfident user who felt the need to speak to you in a condescending, sarcastic tone for your blatant denial of a clearly real leak.

To all those people, you earned every second of that Incineroar trailer.

 

[7NATOR]

You don't make test runs of promotional material. That's a waste of money, and is begging for unnecessary leaks.

Well maybe they just needed to know how the Everyone is Here mural would look, in terms of the Digital Art and stuff. and I guess they printed it out so to see if it looks well on on Paper and such. I Mean I don't know if they make extra Digital Art, but i could see that just in case certain characters are put in or not, or dropped. Development of everything happens at once.

I could go even more tin-foily and say that perhaps why the Eric guy didn't work at Marina anymore and why Marina wasn't associated with the launch of Ultimate was because Eric took a picture, and Marina took the flak and Namco and Nintendo were not having it. when Eric decided to leak the Full roster, he was met with surprise when it was figured out that The Real roster was downsized a little.

but That's too much tin-foil on a theory that's pretty tin-foily to begin with

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I mean, does it matter if they're not balanced? They're custom characters. In fact, aren't Mii Fighters only allowed in competitive play using specific combinations of moves? If so, then nothing changes really, there would just be more moves banned.

This used to be a thing, but it doesn't seem to be in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, likely because they're now separate from the whole Custom Moves idea.

Even speaking from a casual standpoint though, you would still have to balance each combination to make sure there's nothing so powerful that it makes things unfun.

Well maybe they just needed to know how the Everyone is Here mural would look, in terms of the Digital Art and stuff. and I guess they printed it out so to see if it looks well on on Paper and such. I Mean I don't know if they make extra Digital Art, but i could see that just in case certain characters are put in or not, or dropped. Development of everything happens at once.

Wouldn't it look the same on paper as it does on a computer? I don't really see why they'd need to make test posters until they're about ready to make them for sale.

 

[Schnee117]

Fitting that Grinch leak talk would come back on the Eve of it's death day, Halloween no less.
You could honestly not have a more fitting hoax if you tried.

 

[7NATOR]

This used to be a thing, but it doesn't seem to be in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, likely because they're now separate from the whole Custom Moves idea.

Even speaking from a casual standpoint though, you would still have to balance each combination to make sure there's nothing so powerful that it makes things unfun.



Wouldn't it look the same on paper as it does on a computer? I don't really see why they'd need to make test posters until they're about ready to make them for sale.

I'm guessing they might add more Mii Moves when the Next Smash game goes back to having Custom Moves as a whole. Perhaps they might do it like MK11 and have set Variations for Competitive, but then again MK11 kinda botched that up since the Competitive Variations in that game aren't as thought out as MKX, since MK11 was built for you to Customize your character

Also you might be right about the need to put the Art on Paper...Perhaps that's why Eric was canned from Marina or something, and Marina was not working with Namco on Launch of ultimate. Perhaps Eric printed the Picture out and Took a Snapshot of it. He was then found out and got a Stern talking too, and the Marina company was severed from Ultimate, though if this happened wouldn't Eric be black listed and not be able to Work at another Art Company. I don't know, this is a whole lot of stretching right now

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

I wasn‘t controlling anything. I was just adding to the list of things we talk about constantly.

Unless I misunderstood this, it doesn't answer my question.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

My question to you guys today, what would be your most wanted Halloween themed characters for Smash? Doesn't have to be likely either.

Skull Kid

 

[7NATOR]

So would League of Legends make sense as a TGA Reveal?