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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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SKX31

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....................................HOW THE **** IS TERRY HEAVIER THAN WARIO?!
That's what I like to know too since he can be ****ing difficult to kill horizontally.

Nah but serious answer? Likely intentional so that Terry can survive until at least 100 % in most cases and get GO. While he has recovery mixups (most of his B moves) they are very linear or kinda predictable (an Axe can intercept a Power Dunk for example). I'd wager that Sakurai and co. made him that heavy to counteract that as well as most scenarios where he gets gimped (most, he's still vurnerable to vertical shenaningas and ledgetraps).

Do remember that Wario has crazy air mobility unlike Terry (+ Bike), and Ridley has multiple jumps.

Not sure if the "under-expected" discussion is still ongoing, but I figured I may as well pitch in a few cents.
  • Bethesda technically already has content in SSBU with the advent of the Vault Boy costume, but I don't really think that means much at all - Microsoft got to double-dip with proper characters, so I don't see an outfit making much a difference. That in mind, The Dragonborn from TES V: Skyrim honestly seems a lot more likely than discussion on this board feels it would preclude. The game is profoundly popular in both the Western and Japanese markets, and has been so from release even up to the present day. Some possible character-specific mechanics/gimmicks might already be somewhat occupied by Hero, but given the sheer array of playstyles in the game I see there being a lot of leeway for differentiation.
  • Oftentimes someone from the Tales Of series is brought up as nigh-on inevitable from Bandai-Namco, but I honestly feel someone from Dark Souls - be it the Chosen Undead or Solaire of Astora - has nearly as good an argument to make. It's another landmark and well-recognized series of games, and one with a decent presence in modern Nintendo (Solaire even has an Amiibo already!). There's also a lot of potential for very creative character translation: a low-mobility fighter with poor recovery, needing to make use of abundant defensive options to find openings for attacks and (most likely) healing via Estus. I don't honestly see why DS gets overshadowed so much in speculation, given that some form of content from Bandai-Namco is highly likely.
  • Given the sheer size and proliferation of titles such as DOTA2 and League of Legends, I wouldn't count out a MOBA rep. I have next to no familiarity with them as a concept, so I don't know how a representative would either be selected or translated into the format of a platform fighter. I do think it's curious that gacha title characters are seen as a non-zero possibility based largely on clout, yet MOBA is overlooked.
  • On the topic of indie titles: with Shovel Knight having been added as an Assist Trophy, Cuphead and Sans as Mii Costumes, and arguably Steve as the newest fighter (while a huge franchise in and of itself nowadays and owned by Microsoft, it did start out and spend most of its existence as an independent game), I feel something from Hollow Knight has a very good chance of making it into the game. I believe the original game has sold more copies than Shovel Knight in spite of releasing three years later (2017 vs. 2014), and the upcoming sequel Silksong will be released on the Switch. Both the Knight and Hornet have ample material for creative fighter movesets and mechanics, and barring that would make for very distinctive Deluxe Mii Fighter costumes in the style of those for Sans, Cuphead, and Bomberman.
* I would certainly welcome Dragonborn, but that Vault Boy costume is not making things easy at all. What it means for Dragonborn's chances are kinda unclear IMHO because hypotheoretically a Vault Boy costume would've been saved for Dragonborn... but it's not like Elder Scrolls lack Mii Costume opportunities, so Dragonborn could hypotheoretically come with just those. He's discussed semi-often here, but not to Doomguy's extents.

* Yeah, I also kinda feel that Chosen Undead's somewhat overlooked. There are quite a few here that support Dark Souls, even if that's not as popular around these circles as say Lloyd, Soul Calibur or Digimon (I'm forgetting some). Bamco does not lack options though - which is what partly why a lot of people here are rather surprised that Bamco have not gotten a 2nd character in yet.

* As a Dota 2 player (and frequent tournament spectator) myself - the answer to that question's likely that MOBAs were so far removed from Nintendo for a decade. Remember, the genre initially started out in StarCraft / WarCraft III's Custom Map environment, and has been heavily associated with the computer. Thus most people didn't really look at that genre, even when SMITE came to the Switch. I wouldn't count out a MOBA rep at all personally - IMHO LoL is by far the liklier of the two you mentioned since it doesn't have in-company competition really and Riot has likely plans to get onto the Switch. Although I would not count a MOBA rep a frontrunner, I agree that the sheer size and even indirect influence on Smash** means it IMHO has a shot. There's a small but decently-sized number of LoL fans here, and there are a couple Dota 2 players as well.

* As far as indies go, I've been supporting Reimu because it'd be amazing (and terrifying) to see bullet hell implemented into Smash. Would certainly welcome Hollow Knight though,.

**The Dota 2 / LoL rivalry helped spur Twitch's growth into the primary streaming site, and quite a few top level Smash players are sponsored by teams who themselves have their roots in the genre. With the teams funneling money into the competitive scene as well as Smash streamers / Youtubers. As such, MOBAs have had an indirect influence on how significant portions of the Smash community interact with each other.

That's something Sakurai has seen the effects of: Nintendo's hosted two Smash invitationals so far (for Smash 4 and Ultimate) and for those tournaments Nintendo selected mostly those top level players. And while he and Nintendo want to de-emphasize the teams and sponsors, I am pretty sure that Sakurai knows about how top level players get a lot of their income and where those teams originate.

Sakurai has used those Invitational for pre-release balancing. For example, the infamous E3 2018 match, which was part of the Ultimate Invitational:



(Wouldn't be surprised if Sakurai indeed heavily nerfed Bayo after seeing a pro infamously destroy Ridley with her.)
 

KingofPhantoms

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There a general consensus on which characters the community's agreeing are most likely to join the fight at this point?

I'm not exactly betting on a Sw/Sh newcomer, but it really wouldn't surprise me if we get one.
 
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Goombaic

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There a general consensus on which characters the community's agreeing are most likely to join the fight at this point?

I'm not exactly betting on a Sw/Sh newcomer, but it really wouldn't surprise me if we get one.
Not really? Crash, Geno, and Sora are the most popular from what I can tell but there is a lot of debate over how likely they are to get in.
 

NonSpecificGuy

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I dunno man, I think if we’re picking and choosing who is and isn’t disconfirmed based on the wording of an interview then I don’t know what’s the decision that correlates “I don’t know who talked to who, but I don’t think it ever went anywhere” as a disconfirm but “I think it’d be cool to have Arle in if they ever picked a Puyo Puyo character” as a 50/50. Hell, an SNK producer said they would choose a Doggo over Terry and look how that ended so what does it mean for Hayabusa when the Director of Dead or Alive said he’d like to have Kasumi in over Hayabusa?

I dunno, I think we should just stop reading into other developers interviews on Smash entirely. They’re intentionally misleading.
 
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The Stoopid Unikorn

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I dunno, I think we should just stop reading into other developers interviews on Smash entirely. They’re intentionally misleading.
A. I don't think anyone would stop doing that
B. If we believe they're deconfirmed, then that just means we have a nice surprise coming up, and that can freshen things up

But I can see some toxic gatekeeping based on that, so yeah, maybe take interviews with the same grain of salt we take leakers.
 

SNEKeater

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I don’t really think Arne is very likely anyways. If another Sega character got in I REALLY think it’d be Kiryu. Yakuza (Like a Dragon in JP) is huge in Japan and it’s one of Sega’s biggest money makers at the moment. This yearly franchise ain’t no joke. But yeah, I feel like that interview is kind of the thing with a lot of characters. Traditionally if the character coming to Smash is indeed coming to Smash they try to avoid using the characters name directly. At least just from the few past precedents we’ve gotten a la Terry and Banjo.
I'd rather have Kiryu but as far as I know Puyo Puyo is more popular and has sold more in Japan.

Outside of Japan, yes, Yakuza it's more popular, most of it coming in the recent years where the series has seen a boost in popularity and presence among the western audience.

Part of Yakuza' success is how great are the characters in the series. Kiryu is a ****ing badass. He's legitimately one of the best characters I have found in games. He may seem super stoic at first, but it doesn't take long to realize that he's incredibly charismatic, lovable and interesting.
And everything he does is cool.

 
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Scoliosis Jones

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While I agree that interviews may not mean anything, it’s something more than just taking a guess.

Like sure, I’m sure there are people who don’t want that interview to mean bad things for Puyo Puyo in Smash as playable. But there’s an overall reality- not everything is sunshine and rainbows. We have four picks left, which means several characters won’t make it in.

I don’t know lads. I think it’s at least worth entertaining that an interview such as that has implications that may not bode well for certain characters. Just saying.
 
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The Stoopid Unikorn

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While I agree that interviews may not mean anything, it’s something more than just taking a guess.

Like sure, I’m sure there are people who don’t want that interview to mean bad things for Puyo Puyo in Smash as playable. But there’s an overall reality- not everything is sunshine and rainbows. We have four picks left, which means several characters won’t make it in.

I don’t know lads. I think it’s at least worth entertaining that an interview such as that as implications that may not bode well for certain characters. Just saying.
It's fair to assume, it's just that... well, you said it best; not everything is sunshine and rainbows.

We have this black and white mentality where we just immediately jump to conclusions from the smallest things, and they don't always happen.

Travis is the absolute best example of this since people thought he was Fighter 7 due to Suda51 being oddly quiet when he's usually pretty vocal about Travis in Smash, implying he's under NDA. Look how well that assumption turned out. :ultswordfighter:

It's nice to entertain the idea and it's nice to assume things, as they keep the discussion going and have more going for them than year-old fake leaks or gut feelings. But nothing is ever truly a guarantee until Nintendo slaps a trailer in front of our eyes, and that's something we really need to be reminded of because we've had too many occasions of being wrong when we thought a character was a "lock".
 
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Hinata

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I'd rather have Kiryu but as far as I know Puyo Puyo is more popular and has sold more in Japan.

Outside of Japan, yes, Yakuza it's more popular, most of it coming in the recent years where the series has seen a boost in popularity and presence among the western audience.

Part of Yakuza' success is how great are the characters in the series. Kiryu is a ****ing badass. He's legitimately one of the best characters I have found in games. He may seem super stoic at first, but it doesn't take long to realize that he's incredibly charismatic, lovable and interesting.
And everything he does is cool.

I just want to mention that this gif comes from a moment in Yakuza 5 where Kiryu fights 100 members of the Tojo Clan by himself, and wins without breaking a sweat.

This man is a ****ing beast.

Huh, have people figured out a way to easily add in all new music tracks without replacing old ones, as they did back in Smash 4?
Sadly no, all the new songs replace old ones that I just moved over to the Persona series tracklist. Right now Ultimate modding follows the law of equivalent exchange.
 

Louie G.

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I don’t know lads. I think it’s at least worth entertaining that an interview such as that has implications that may not bode well for certain characters. Just saying.
I agree for the most part, at least that it's worth speculating about - I'm just not sure what people think Smash NDA is supposed to be, nor am I sure what it entails at all. It feels like sometimes the expectation of the community is the person being interviewed to just completely shut off and stay silent until the next question.

Considering he was asked specifically about Arle in Smash, he answered as such. No matter what he said we would be having this same conversation...
It's kind of an unfair trap, don't you think?

But despite how I want this to pan out... I do believe this affects Arle to some extent, because he talked a little more than I would expect someone to if they wanted to keep a secret / keep it brief. Granted it's getting into semantics and reading into things that may not be there... but we're Smash fans, that's what we do anyway. At least we won't have to hear the dumb argument about whether or not Arle can be in a fighting game anymore.
 
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SMAASH! Puppy

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My take is this: Leaks are more likely to mean nothing than something, while devs talking about their characters in Smash are more likely to mean something than something.

I think that, just as it's safe to assume that all leaks are fake until proven otherwise, all dev/rights holder commentary are a disconfirmation unless it's just sidestepping and whatnot.
 

SNEKeater

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I have modded my Switch recently and finally given Mementos the tracklist it deserves.

Great selection.
Not gonna lie, but I feel like we should have more Persona music. I guess this feeling it's mostly because they added 11 tracks to rep 3 games (leaving 5 songs for Persona 5, which feels wrong to me), also Terry 50 songs might have hurted the Persona selection in my eyes. I really like the soundtrack of the series so I'm probably hard to satisfy with only 11 songs, but I don't know.

Tracks like Blooming Villain or Life Will Change feel like no brainer choices, I was honestly surprised when I saw both songs weren't in the list. In a more personal level I'd have loved Whims of Fate as well, they would probably have needed to modify the lyrics, which they did for Mass Destruction, so it's not like they couldn't have done it.
Then we have somewhat odd choices such as Wake Up, Get Out There, which is a fantastic track, but has more of a chill mood than anything and for some reason, I feel like Persona songs in Smash are played like at 70-80 volume level. Not to say Our Beginning, which is also a cool track, but then again, it doesn't fit very well Smash. In P5 the song is more of a "conclusion song" than a battle theme, and I can't comprehend why they wouldn't add the actual final boss theme. Instead of that they went with the post-battle track lol

Also. Your list would be perfect if not because Unbreakable Tie isn't there. My fave opening song in the series by the way.

 
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Hinata

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... Donkey Kong doesn't need 7 Jungle level themes now, does it? 🤔
I have replaced all four "Light Plane" tracks. I don't even know what a Light Plane is, and now I don't need to find out.

Great selection.
Not gonna lie, but I feel like we should have more Persona music. I guess this feeling it's mostly because they added 11 tracks to rep 3 games (leaving 5 songs for Persona 5, which feels wrong to me), also Terry 50 songs might have hurted the Persona selection in my eyes. I really like the soundtrack of the series so I'm probably hard to satisfy with only 11 songs, but I don't know.

Tracks like Blooming Villain or Life Will Change feel like no brainer choices, I was honestly surprised when I saw both songs weren't in the list. In a more personal level I'd have loved Whims of Fate as well, they would probably have needed to modify the lyrics, which they did for Mass Destruction, so it's not like they couldn't have done it.

Also. Your list would be perfect if not because Unbreakable Tie isn't there. My fave opening song in the series by the way.

That's exactly why I made this mod. Persona has such an amazing soundtrack across all its games, and I wanted to represent that better than Sakurai did. I might have gone a bit overboard, but I feel like every slot was worth it. Imagine having to mod the game to play Life Will Change on the ****in' Persona 5 stage.

Also, I'm hella slackin' on Persona 1 and 2 songs. I just haven't played those games, so I dunno what songs are good.
 

SKX31

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Not really? Crash, Geno, and Sora are the most popular from what I can tell but there is a lot of debate over how likely they are to get in.
Yeah, there are no clear frontrunners regarding likelihood since other characters like Hayabusa, Lloyd and Phoenix have legitimate cases (just to name three examples) and that's before getting into first parties or more "Non-Nintendo" third parties.

Really it's a cluster****. And that will only get more cluster****y with each slot filled.

... Donkey Kong doesn't need 7 Jungle level themes now, does it? 🤔
Composers look quickly at Tropical Freeze's first boss theme.

Composer: "Nah, *_________________________. Lets go do another Jungle level theme."

*Pick your answer:

A) Nintendo really wanted me to do another Jungle Level theme.
B) Tropical Freeze's boss music does not fit the DK series.
C) I'm a sucker for nostalgia.
D) DK Bongos for the GCN were the best thing ever and I really want to emphasize that with the Jungle level theme.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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DAAA DA DA DAAAAAHH DA DAAA DAAAAHHH DA DAH DAHHHHH
DA DA DA DEEEEEE DAAAAAA DA DA DA DEEEEEE DAAAAAA

Composers look quickly at Tropical Freeze's first boss theme.

Composer: "Nah, *_________________________. Lets go do another Jungle level theme."

*Pick your answer:

A) Nintendo really wanted me to do another Jungle Level theme.
B) Tropical Freeze's boss music does not fit the DK series.
C) I'm a sucker for nostalgia.
D) DK Bongos for the GCN were the best thing ever and I really want to emphasize that with the Jungle level theme.
I pick E) I really wanted to see how many different styles I could make this theme in. YouTube style composing challenges are good enough for the OST of a game right?
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Arcanir

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Generally, taking interviews into account is always going to be a good idea in speculation. While I know we do have cases like the SNK interview that is often pointed to, we can't forget that there's been a number of times where an interview did lead us on the right track. The Inafune interview back in Brawl for instance told us that Mega Man wasn't in the game and that was true, the Yabuki interview from the pre-release of Smash Ultimate had him dismiss a ARMs character from being in the base roster and despite the resistance to it that turned out to be true, and even the aforementioned Suda interview did tell us that Travis would have a presence in the game, it just wasn't the presence people wanted it to be.

You don't have to fully dismiss characters like Doomguy or Tracer, but it is going to be a good idea to keep in mind what's being said and the context of how and when it's being said. We do have to take all the information we have into account when talking and speculating about the characters, and interviews shouldn't be any different in that regard.
 
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3BitSaurus

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Not sure if the "under-expected" discussion is still ongoing, but I figured I may as well pitch in a few cents.
  • Bethesda technically already has content in SSBU with the advent of the Vault Boy costume, but I don't really think that means much at all - Microsoft got to double-dip with proper characters, so I don't see an outfit making much a difference. That in mind, The Dragonborn from TES V: Skyrim honestly seems a lot more likely than discussion on this board feels it would preclude. The game is profoundly popular in both the Western and Japanese markets, and has been so from release even up to the present day. Some possible character-specific mechanics/gimmicks might already be somewhat occupied by Hero, but given the sheer array of playstyles in the game I see there being a lot of leeway for differentiation.
  • Oftentimes someone from the Tales Of series is brought up as nigh-on inevitable from Bandai-Namco, but I honestly feel someone from Dark Souls - be it the Chosen Undead or Solaire of Astora - has nearly as good an argument to make. It's another landmark and well-recognized series of games, and one with a decent presence in modern Nintendo (Solaire even has an Amiibo already!). There's also a lot of potential for very creative character translation: a low-mobility fighter with poor recovery, needing to make use of abundant defensive options to find openings for attacks and (most likely) healing via Estus. I don't honestly see why DS gets overshadowed so much in speculation, given that some form of content from Bandai-Namco is highly likely.
  • Given the sheer size and proliferation of titles such as DOTA2 and League of Legends, I wouldn't count out a MOBA rep. I have next to no familiarity with them as a concept, so I don't know how a representative would either be selected or translated into the format of a platform fighter. I do think it's curious that gacha title characters are seen as a non-zero possibility based largely on clout, yet MOBA is overlooked.
  • On the topic of indie titles: with Shovel Knight having been added as an Assist Trophy, Cuphead and Sans as Mii Costumes, and arguably Steve as the newest fighter (while a huge franchise in and of itself nowadays and owned by Microsoft, it did start out and spend most of its existence as an independent game), I feel something from Hollow Knight has a very good chance of making it into the game. I believe the original game has sold more copies than Shovel Knight in spite of releasing three years later (2017 vs. 2014), and the upcoming sequel Silksong will be released on the Switch. Both the Knight and Hornet have ample material for creative fighter movesets and mechanics, and barring that would make for very distinctive Deluxe Mii Fighter costumes in the style of those for Sans, Cuphead, and Bomberman.
I did have a few things to add, but SKX31 SKX31 covered most of it... I guess all that's left is to mention that some devs at Riot made a LoL-skinned mod of Smash back in the Brawl days and according to a few sources, some people there enjoyed it quite a bit. So we do know they'd be up for it.

Well, I guess I can say that and plug the LoL thread in my sig, of course. :laugh:
 

I.D.

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two of the Monado Arts had to be made up just so the concept could be fleshed out more.
All of them are made up. Or rather, Sakurai chose to reimagine them as auras as a way to represent another aspect of XB1's gameplay. Monado arts would have to be repurposed anyway since most of them are focused on buffing allies or applying debuffs to enemies.
 

Koopaul

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I respectfully disagree. I feel Min Min lines up perfectly with our trend of protagonists seemingly being the focus due to the "everyone being a protagonist" mindset comes from Yubuki himself, not Sakurai. Taking the time to explain why expectations for Spring Man were broken doesn't really come off as an excuse to me, it's more taking the time to explain how the creator of ARMS views his game's characters as all having equal worth to the brand and overall story, making them all valid characters to promote the game. This is different compared to most other franchises repped in Smash, and taking a second to explain it's difference helps clear up any confusion that not just anyone from a franchise could take the spot for a series' first rep: There's a clear trend across all Smash games where a protagonist and face of the game joins first, and given the series creator's own words, Min Min is a face of ARMS, because all of it's playable characters are in his mind.

There's also the potential that Min Min could become ARMS new face in a potential ARMS 2, given her immense popularity with ARMS fans and the game's creator liking her a lot. This has happened before with characters like Morrigan in Darkstalkers.
I respectfully disagree to the notion that everyone in ARMS is of equal worth. Spring Man in many many many ways stood out as the central character. If everyone in ARMS was meant to be on equal footing, then why did it need to be said? Why did they have to address it? Because they weren't. Maybe this will change in the future, but it's more than obvious that Spring Man was on a different level than Min Min was in the current game. The fact that the Min Min trailer and promotional art shows a defeated Spring Man demonstrates that Min Min received an invitation that would have normally gone to Spring Man.

Min Min is an exceptional case.
 
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SMAASH! Puppy

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All of them are made up. Or rather, Sakurai chose to reimagine them as auras as a way to represent another aspect of XB1's gameplay. Monado arts would have to be repurposed anyway since most of them are focused on buffing allies or applying debuffs to enemies.
Well, Speed isn't technically the same from a gameplay standpoint, but it does actually increase speed in-universe (like, in cutscenes it does actually increase their speed) so it's technically not made up at all. Shield is also technically the same, but it shields you from all attacks rather than outright blocking a single attack type.

If you wanted to retool them to make them more similar to the source material, I'd use Enchant, Speed, Shield, Purge, and Buster; Buffs on the top, attacks on the bottom. Enchant raises attack, Speed makes projectiles phase through you for a short while, Shield lowers the damage of Smash Attacks (low damage attacks are negated), Purge is a projectile similar to Blade Beam that lowers your opponents stats, and Buster is basically just Ganondorf's Forward Smash.
 
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