Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Louie G.]

It's not about going "Welp, we filled the western slot!", but convenience.

This is what people don't seem to get. It's not just randomly gatekeeping with a fanmade quota.

I pretty much agree that we're unlikely to get another western character - not because Nintendo has a quota of a certain number of western characters to fill, but because by default they have several unique hurdles to jump. And it's taken 20 years (12, if you want to start at Brawl) to get western developed third party characters at all. The language barrier is hard enough as is and to put it bluntly, many western characters don't have the same popularity or significance overseas that they do here. There are plenty of Japanese characters who are more profitable for Nintendo, easier to get and / or just as popular and recognizable in the west as some of our own candidates.

Banjo had been vehemently requested for almost two decades straight while Steve's game is incomparably popular worldwide. Both belong to the same company as well, so once negotiations with one were handled I'm sure the other went even smoother since they've already worked together to make it happen. I'm not saying this spells certain doom for every western character, but Banjo and Steve are currently some pretty daunting standards for another western character to match.

Certainly it's possible that we could see say, Crash Bandicoot in FP2. He's popular in the community and although his greatest success overseas was quite a while ago, it at least means people over there would know who he is. I do think however that when people refer to him as a frontrunner, the most important / iconic character left etc etc... there's some western bias at play here. As lame as it is to say that being from the west is a legitimate obstacle, it's not incorrect. I've seen passes with like, Steve / Crash / Doomguy all there and honestly that's just not going to happen. We'd be lucky to get a second.

As far as something like Fortnite goes, I'm very confident that isn't going to happen. Minecraft is likely the biggest game that they'll tackle in this pass, and it already targets a lot of the same demographic that a Fortnite character would. I do think people are sleeping on Tracer a little bit though.

 

[JOJONumber691]

I think that there will be some characters from lesser known IPs.

Like Dragalia Lost!

 

[chocolatejr9]

Like Dragalia Lost!

This guy gets it.

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

I think that there will be some characters from lesser known IPs.

My own bet is on Puyo Puyo.

 

[RileyXY1]

This is what people don't seem to get. It's not just randomly gatekeeping with a fanmade quota.

I pretty much agree that we're unlikely to get another western character - not because Nintendo has a quota of a certain number of western characters to fill, but because by default they have several unique hurdles to jump. And it's taken 20 years (12, if you want to start at Brawl) to get western developed third party characters at all. The language barrier is hard enough as is and to put it bluntly, many western characters don't have the same popularity or significance overseas that they do here. There are plenty of Japanese characters who are more profitable for Nintendo, easier to get and / or just as popular and recognizable in the west as some of our own candidates.

Banjo had been vehemently requested for almost two decades straight while Steve's game is incomparably popular worldwide. Both belong to the same company as well, so once negotiations with one were handled I'm sure the other went even smoother since they've already worked together to make it happen. I'm not saying this spells certain doom for every western character, but Banjo and Steve are currently some pretty daunting standards for another western character to match.

Certainly it's possible that we could see say, Crash Bandicoot in FP2. He's popular in the community and although his greatest success overseas was quite a while ago, it at least means people over there would know who he is. I do think however that when people refer to him as a frontrunner, the most important / iconic character left etc etc... there's some western bias at play here. As lame as it is to say that being from the west is a legitimate obstacle, it's not incorrect. I've seen passes with like, Steve / Crash / Doomguy all there and honestly that's just not going to happen. We'd be lucky to get a second.

As far as something like Fortnite goes, I'm very confident that isn't going to happen. Minecraft is likely the biggest game that they'll tackle in this pass, and it already targets a lot of the same demographic that a Fortnite character would. I do think people are sleeping on Tracer a little bit though.

Overwatch's devs already said that they want Tracer in. She's hard deconfirmed.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

My own bet is on Puyo Puyo.

Its popular in Japan though.

 

[BernkastelWitch]

Honestly speaking, I think we'd be incredibly lucky to get a commonly discussed character in the vein of Geno/Waluigi/Sora/Doom Guy/Master Chief. We could include Steve in this I imagine as the commonly discussed character since for a while, he was brought up a lot and it only died down due to Banjo. I can see Crash, Dante, and/or Ryu Hayabusa making it in if you count them as a "Commonly discussed" character.

I can also see characters people thought were impossible or outright unlikely to make it into Smash to actually get into this pass. I.E: Characters like KOS-MOS/Reimu/Monokuma/Kiryu/Sol Badguy. The characters people dismissed as either being "Too small/Niche/Irrelevant/controversial" or because they don't see them as likely.

Of course it depends on negotiations and whatnot. I still place money we'll get someone very unexpected that people either rarely talk about or wrote off so it'd be a surprise since quite a few of these "Who's" actually have a legacy behind them.

 

[SKX31]

I think we need to make an unofficial rule that Bayonetta, as well as Banjo, are both very specific and special cases that really shouldn't be compared to the usual third party guests.

Be careful though, an unofficial rule risks running into the same problems as fan rules (if the terms aren't already synonymous). I don't think there's much internal consistency when the very first third party guest was due to Sakurai's friendship with Kojima, the second was literally last minute, and the fourth was initially rejected due to having the moveset potential of a pizza missing a slice.

And now that pizza can pull of the most disrespectful **** (video timestamped to the relevant clip):

 

[7NATOR]

Overwatch's devs already said that they want Tracer in. She's hard deconfirmed.

And honestly given the Wording, It seemed like Overwatch wasn't even Considered, or at least enough to where Jeff and Ninteno/Sakurai met at the negotation table, Which given by how much Advertising Overwatch got in that one Nintendo Direct and also that it got a Free Trial, Kinda seems weird

Unless of course Jeff is being Very Fluid with NDA, And I don't think Overwatch got bodied as hard as that Doomguy interview did to Doomguy, but it's not looking good either

 

[3BitSaurus]

Be careful though, an unofficial rule risks running into the same problems as fan rules (if the terms aren't already synonymous). I don't think there's much internal consistency when the very first third party guest was due to Sakurai's friendship with Kojima, the second was literally last minute, and the fourth was initially rejected due to having the moveset potential of a pizza missing a slice.

And now that pizza can pull of the most disrespectful **** (video timestamped to relevant clip):

"Now you'll be the one missing a slice!"

 

[RileyXY1]

I don't think that we are getting an FPS rep unless Microsoft double dips in this pass and gets two fighters.

 

[SharkLord]

That... I actually kinda agree with. Or at least, IPs that aren't considered "mainstream". Kinda like Terry, in a way, though not exactly the same.

A Terry-esque situation, you say? I think I might know a guy...

Spoiler

 

[osby]

Regarding the "too new" argument: Remember that negotiations for Steve in Smash started 5 years ago, only 4 for so years after Minecraft's official release.
People already brought up Bayonetta so not gonna touch that. Also, let's not forget that even if Persona is a pretty old franchise, Sakurai had no problem adding content mainly from Persona 5; a game that was only a couple years old at the time when Joker was added.

Smash definitely goes for older characters/franchises more often than not but I don't see any hard rules gatekeeping the new ones. If a third party pick is successful/popular/iconic enough, they can get in without waiting for an arbitrary age limit imho.

 

[Louie G.]

My own bet is on Puyo Puyo.

I've been in this camp for a while now. I don't necessarily wholeheartedly believe it at the moment, but Arle has become somewhat of a ride or die character for me, in the back of my mind ever since Hero and then straight up on my predictions since Terry. I think there's a lot of reason for Arle to be here and she's practically tied as my MW character right now - I want to believe!

Overwatch's devs already said that they want Tracer in. She's hard deconfirmed.

Right yeah, last I remembered it was just like "who would you have in smash" and Jeff responded "Tracer" because... of course it would be. But they have talked about it more than a few times which I would agree they're unlikely to do under NDA. Just think she may as well come up some more in conversation if people are still willing to discuss Doomguy after he was even more explicitly disconfirmed.

 

[kylexv]

Here's what I think the final four characters are:

• Pokemon Character (Cinderace is most likely, but it could be a different one)
• Capcom Character (Dante, Monster Hunter, or Phoenix)
• Hayabusa
• Wildcard (Could literally be anyone)

I will then proceed to not explain my reasoning at all.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I think that there will be some characters from lesser known IPs.

My money’s on The World Ends With You

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Its popular in Japan though.

He didn't see the reactions to Puyo ouyo Tetris 2 did you

My money’s on The World Ends With You

I also don't think that the lesser-known IP. Not super popular, sure, but not lesser known

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I admit this might be my own bias at work, but I'm still skeptical about Japan appeal fighters below Dragon Quest level (a series mind you that's sold 80 million copies worldwide and had all but one of their mainline titles localized and released on Nintendo consoles).

Nintendo and Sakurai seem keen on working with Japanese studios, but even in the base game (where very Western interested characters like Ridley and Little Mac have popped up) Smash feels far away from the days where they'd put in a Marth or Roy that many American and European fans hadn't heard of.

 

[cashregister9]

I'm thinking

-Amingo
-Amigo (Samba De Amigo)

That is it those are the only 2 characters being added

 

[GoodGrief741]

I am wondering outside a bad timing case like Rex or a Gen 8 Pokemon what first party characters would get in? Basically would they be from franchises not featured in Smash or from ones that are in yet still with potential fighters to use, and in the case of both, what changed between now and 1-2 years ago?

I guess its a weird hypothetical for me that apparently such characters weren't a priority (or even mentioned in interviews as considerations) for the base game, but would be now. Don't get me wrong I'd love to have a Dixie Kong, Bandana Dee, etc, it just feels like a significant shift in some ways to suddenly include them in greater roles this much later.

We literally just got two characters for whom nothing changed in the last 2 years. One from a franchise that everyone expected in base game, and one that we know they've wanted to get in since 2015.

To require that characters' circumstances have changed to consider them is to assume that Sakurai managed to include every character he wanted to, which we know is untrue. Sometimes characters are passed over because of priority.

Hell, if you look at the first Fighter Pass, what was keeping Banjo from being in base roster? We knew already that Microsoft was up for it. What kept Terry from being in before? SNK was super easy to license for. Their circumstances didn't have to change for them to get in. Sometimes it really is a question of whether they're picked or not.

 

[MarioRaccoon]

I think that the only requirement for a western IP to get a playable fighter is that it should have been massively popular in Japan. Minecraft is huge there (Switch version ls the best selling third party game on the system) and Banjo-Kazooie had a lot of requests (His first N64 title sold more than 400k, that is something remarkable for a +6M units installbase).

Thus, I think the only western character that qualifies with this requirement is Crash Bandicoot, his PS1 entries (2 and 3) sold more than 1 millon copies. I supposed he has popularity and requests for Smash.

In second place, I would mention Call of Duty, but I don’t think thay can pull a character from there (or maybe yes?)

 

[Aerospherology]

Current Fighter Pass Vol. 2 Newcomer Statuses:
Strong leak backing; Ryu Hayabusa, Crash Bandicoot (Planned for 2021?)
Strong circumstantial evidence: Geno (Mario tournament, SMRPG remake/sequel rumors, Cacomallow, missing Mii Costume), King Boo (Mario tournament, missing Luigi's Mansion 3 representation), Lloyd (series icon?, missing Mii Costume)
Upcoming releases: Monster Hunter, Dante, a Pokemon, Klonoa, etc.
Someone said no: Sora (Imran Khan)
Official deconfirmation? (mentioned by corporate or the game creators for Smash): Overwatch character, Doomguy, Ryza, Master Chief (Xbox France)

 

[SpectreJordan]

I still feel like Fortnite is still too new. Minecraft was over 10 years old by the time it got put into Smash and it's proven to have staying power. Who knows if Fortnite will still be as popular as it is today several years from now.

I definitely think Fortnite is a case where they’d wait to see if it has longevity or if it’s a fad. If Fortnite is still popular by the time the next Smash happens, then I’d say it’s a likely candidate.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

If third parties could be considered "too new" for Smash, then I'm pretty sure we wouldn't have gotten joker as soon as we did

Pass 1 appears to have been negotiated late 2017 to early 2018. Persona 5 was released in late 2016.we're talking a year and a half's worth at most

 

[cashregister9]

When it comes to a western character the ones that I could realistically see as of now are
-Blizzard Rep
-Crash
-Undertale rep
-Valve rep
-Master Chief

2 of them have already been pretty much deconfirmed (Tracer and Undertale)

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

-Crash
-Arle
-Dante
-Ryu Hayabusa

is my prediction for the rest of the pass.

 

[7NATOR]

Speaking of Valve, anyone remember that post about someone asking Gabe I believe about Gordon Freeman in Smash?

 

[Perkilator]

I think that there will be some characters from lesser known IPs.

SAKURA SHINGUJI OR BUST

 

[cashregister9]

I think that there will be some characters from lesser known IPs.

ESTELLE!

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I think we need to make an unofficial rule that Bayonetta, as well as Banjo, are both very specific and special cases that really shouldn't be compared to the usual third party guests.

I don't think so. If we're even going to make fan rules in the fist place, why should some characters be arbitrarily be left out?

And a bit redundant anyway as we got two Microsoft owned characters in the DLC.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I think that there will be some characters from lesser known IPs.

Quoting again to say

Evil Trapezium is typing...

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Minecraft is likely the biggest game that they'll tackle in this pass

There's a game bigger than Minecraft? First time I hear of that.

 

[Aerospherology]

I predict Geno, Ryu Hayabusa, someone from some series I don't care about at all, and Crash Bandicoot.

 

[7NATOR]

To Be Honest, If they got Minecraft in Smash, they technically don't need through negotiations for other Big Characters like Crash, Scorpion, Chief, Other characters because Minecraft is The Biggest Game ever and Steve is a Pass Seller (Doesn't mean they won't go for them, but that they really don't need too After Steve)

Of course the Characters also need to sell Seperately as well (Because not everyone buys $30 Passes, especially based on 1 Character), but There's no need to go with Huge Big Character like Fortnite right now. Now if you want to appeal to Different Genres like FPS (Because audience difference between Minecraft and Shooters is Big), than that makes sense. but still.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Ryu Hayabusa and a Gen 8 Pokemon are the only ones I'm fairly certain on.

A part of me is feeling you guys are having too much confidence in Crash and Dante. A reminder that Nintendo could throw the curveball regarding Crash.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

Current Fighter Pass Vol. 2 Newcomer Statuses:
Strong leak backing; Ryu Hayabusa, Crash Bandicoot (Planned for 2021?)
Strong circumstantial evidence: Geno (Mario tournament, SMRPG remake/sequel rumors, Cacomallow, missing Mii Costume), King Boo (Mario tournament, missing Luigi's Mansion 3 representation), Lloyd (series icon?, missing Mii Costume)
Upcoming releases: Monster Hunter, Dante, a Pokemon, Klonoa, etc.
Someone said no: Sora (Imran Khan)
Official deconfirmation? (mentioned by corporate or the game creators for Smash): Overwatch character, Doomguy, Ryza, Master Chief (Xbox France)

The Mario tournament will be more than over by time fighter 8 comes, so I don't think they're evidence toward Geno or King boo. Also, where does the Mario rpg remake rumor even come from? I keep hearing about it but never saw an actual source.

Oh and also for the 1000th time, Cacomallow isn't a evidence toward Geno. It's been almost a year, I think we can move on from that.

 

[Megadoomer]

This is my guess, in no particular order.

I'm guessing that Steve and CP8 were intended for an E3 reveal, and if the past two E3s were any indication, it seems like they'd end it off with some long-awaited fan favourite. The two big ones that are left seem to be Geno and Isaac (not sure when Waluigi became a popular pick, but I don't think it was as early as those two), and I don't think we'll be getting assist trophy promotions in this DLC. Plus, the timing would match up for the Mario tournament was was announced for "sometime in November or December" (you'd think they could give a specific month, or even have it that weekend) and the Nintendo online open tournament that ends on November 1st. (the last time we had one, Min Min was announced the next day - that one and the upcoming one are the only online open tournaments that we've had, so I'm not sure how reliable that information is, but I wouldn't be surprised if we got an announcement within the first week of November) Smash Ultimate seems to be going out of its way to fulfill as many fan demands as possible (every veteran and most stages returning; hazardless and Battlefield versions of every stage; detailed patch notes; Ridley, K. Rool, and Banjo...), and Geno seems like he'd fit that mindset.

I don't think that the remaining Fighters Pass 2 characters are going to be entirely third party. I feel like Bandanna Dee stands a good chance, given that he's fairly popular in a variety of regions, but Zelda's 35th anniversary is next year, and with Zelda not having a new unique character in Smash for twenty years by that point, I could see them saving one for the end. Impa seems like a "safe" reveal rather than an exciting or unexpected one, but Nintendo rarely seems to end with the biggest announcements. (Brawl ending with Wolf; Smash 4's base game ending with Duck Hunt; Ultimate's base game ending with Ken/Incineroar; Fighters Pass 1 ending with Byleth...)

With Dante, I feel like it could go either way between him or Monster Hunter, but both series are pretty popular at the moment, and some comments by Hideaki Itsuno and Hideki Kamiya have me feeling optimistic about Dante.

Devil May Cry 5 director open to Dante in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, says Capcom needs to bring the series to Nintendo platform first

Hideki Kamiya is asking fans which of his characters they'd most want in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate including Dante and Viewtiful Joe

Hideki Kamiya's comments on which of his characters he wants in Super Smash Bros. points to one of them perhaps already being part of Fighters Pass 2

While I think that we should get another Namco-Bandai character by this point, they seem really reluctant to bring in any of their own characters for some reason. (maybe it's because they don't want to seem biased? Though having two of the many third party character being from their company doesn't seem like it would come across that way) Meanwhile, Capcom seems to have no problem with including any of their series in Smash. (plus, it would mean that we'd get Dante vs. Bayonetta, and Kamiya regretted not being able to make that happen in Project X Zone 2)

Then there's Ryu Hayabusa, but he seems like a no-brainer. Koei-Tecmo's got a long history (they seem like the last big Japanese third party company that doesn't have a playable character in Smash), Ninja Gaiden's got history stretching back to the NES days and two wildly different styles of games, and Koei-Tecmo's close enough to Nintendo that they can work on a main Fire Emblem game and a Zelda spin-off that's the official backstory for Breath of the Wild. I'm a little surprised that he didn't make it into the base game, and I'll be confused if he's not in the DLC at all.

I'm not 100% sure about the order, though after Bayonetta, I think they'll realize that action characters will take a lot of time to balance if they're going to emulate the gameplay from their home series, so I don't think they'll save Dante or Ryu Hayabusa for the end. I do think that Geno will come out (or at least will get announced) this year if he does get added, and if we get a Zelda character, I think they won't be out until next year, due to their series' respective 35th anniversaries.

 

[Dinoman96]

I don't think so. If we're even going to make fan rules in the fist place, why should some characters be arbitrarily be left out?

And a bit redundant anyway as we got two Microsoft owned characters in the DLC.

It's just because Banjo and Bayo are really more here for their statuses as honorary fan favorite Nintendo characters. Nintendo used to co-own the Banjo IP during the 90s and they've been publishing/financing Bayonetta's newer games. And both characters obviously did really well on the ballot. So their inclusions in a primarily Nintendo focused games made sense even if they don't quite have the same history/legacy as the other third parties.

 

[FJA147]

I know this is unlikely and don’t think that this going to happen but what happens if this FP2 was more slated to a younger generation. Because FP1 reps were more popular among an older generation except probably Hero because Byleth is 50, 50. My predictions if it was going for a younger generation, the remaining would be Crash, Gen 8 Pokémon and then I have no idea from there. Crash is on this because of Crash 4 and Crash remake.

 

[SKX31]

There's a game bigger than Minecraft? First time I hear of that.

Uuuuuuuuhhhhhh......

uuuuuuuuuuhhhhhhhhmmmmmm...

Googles.

As far as total worldwide population goes it's ****ing difficult as **** to come up with games that approach Minecraft's playerbase (112 Million monthly).
3BitSaurus linked an estimate for LoL's playerbase - 115 million as of 2019 - but that's "give or take" area, and it's fully possible that Minecraft is (slightly) bigger.

Fortnite kinda approaches that, but the 250 million registered accounts can be a bit deceptive. The first monthly userbase number I saw was 78.3 million. Not as big as the previous two, but again, it's possible Fortnite's crept up. Still, it's difficult to say if Fortnite's bigger than Minecraft.

There are a small but notable bunch of games (mostly mobile) that are popular in the humongous countries China and India (as well as other, pretty big regions like SouthEast Asia). Tencent's mobile LoL Honor of Kings (Arena of Valor internationally) claimed a daily userbase of 100 milllion+ when China underwent the pandemic lockdown. Garena Free Fire (a mobile Fortnite, optimized specifically for it), which is huge in SEA, India and LatAm (just wondering if 3BitSaurus is familiar with this title) boasts 100 million+ daily players.

Don't think either mobile titles are frontrunners.