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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Dinoman96

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If third parties could be considered "too new" for Smash, then I'm pretty sure we wouldn't have gotten joker as soon as we did

Pass 1 appears to have been negotiated late 2017 to early 2018. Persona 5 was released in late 2016.we're talking a year and a half's worth at most
Yeah, but Persona is still a long running series that dates back to the PS1. I think there's a difference between adding the protagonist of the recent break out hit of a long running franchise and adding in an all new series that's still in its infancy.
 

JamesDNaux

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Banjo was added because of pure, untainted fan demand.
Bayo was added because of raw, unfiltered shilling.
Both are basically honorary Nintendo characters.

But we're forgetting that every character gets in for different reasons, there's no universal umbrella for newcomers to fall under. Yes, Bajo and Bayo were special cases... just like every other newcomer:

Joker got in because Sakurai loves Persona.
Hero got in because Sakurai loves Dragon Quest.
Terry got in because Sakurai is in love with SNK.
Byleth got in because Sakurai loves Fire Emblem.

...ok maybe there's a lot more overlap for the first pass at least.

:yeahboi:
 
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Guybrush20X6

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I took some time to look into Apex Legends and if there was to be a character from it in Smash I think it would either be Wattson who was the face early on and it the "good guy" of the cast or Mirage, who got his own interview spot at E3
 

3BitSaurus

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Uuuuuuuuhhhhhh......

uuuuuuuuuuhhhhhhhhmmmmmm...

Googles.

As far as total worldwide population goes it's *ing difficult as * to come up with games that approach Minecraft's playerbase (112 Million monthly).
3BitSaurus 3BitSaurus linked an estimate for LoL's playerbase - 115 million as of 2019 - but that's "give or take" area, and it's fully possible that Minecraft is (slightly) bigger.

Fortnite kinda approaches that, but the 250 million registered accounts can be a bit deceptive. The first monthly userbase number I saw was 78.3 million. Not as big as the previous two, but again, it's possible Fortnite's crept up. Still, it's difficult to say if Fortnite's bigger than Minecraft.

There are a small but notable bunch of games (mostly mobile) that are popular in the humongous countries China and India (as well as other, pretty big regions like SouthEast Asia). Tencent's mobile LoL Honor of Kings (Arena of Valor internationally) claimed a daily userbase of 100 milllion+ when China underwent the pandemic lockdown. Garena Free Fire (a mobile Fortnite, optimized specifically for it), which is huge in SEA, India and LatAm (just wondering if 3BitSaurus is familiar with this title) boasts 100 million+ daily players.

Don't think either mobile titles are frontrunners.
It's also worth keeping in mind that Minecraft's (and also Fortnite and Overwatch, for example) total sales numbers account for all versions of the game on all platforms - meaning it's impossible to tell how much overlap there is between each version (kinda like what happens with Pokémon and the people who buy both versions, thus inflating the numbers).

There's an important distinction to be made between "best selling game" and "biggest playerbase", tbh. And also between "best-selling game" and "best selling series".
 

TwiceEXE

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I took some time to look into Apex Legends and if there was to be a character from it in Smash I think it would either be Wattson who was the face early on and it the "good guy" of the cast or Mirage, who got his own interview spot at E3
I know next to nothing about Apex, but every Apex player I've heard from always says that the Smash character would have to be Wraith. For whatever that is worth.
 

Ramen Tengoku

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Yeah, but Persona is still a long running series that dates back to the PS1. I think there's a difference between adding the protagonist of the recent break out hit of a long running franchise and adding in an all new series that's still in its infancy.
Ehhh... It was marketed as "Super Smash Bros Ultimate x Persona 5" not just "Super Smash Bros Ultimate x Persona", and with the exception of the music tracks, a couple mii costumes on the side and one spirit (who was a reccuring character throughout the series including p5) all of the content pretty much stemmed from just Persona 5.

At that point, I'm pretty sure Joker got in by Persona 5's own merits, not just the Persona series in general
 
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Louie G.

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A lot of the characters I'm speculating at the moment come up fairly often (Hayabusa, Geno, Monster Hunter) or are characters I'm moreso hoping for than expecting (Arle, but that isn't to say she doesn't have her own reasons to be there), but one thing that I think is fairly likely that I don't see people bring up so much is a character from Arc System Works.

ArcSys is currently the only series in the game to have a full spirit event with no additional content to speak of. This isn't to say they can't stay that way, it's surely possible that this is all they'll get, but it seems odd to me that Nintendo would talk with a company like ArcSys and only get a few River City spirits out of it. Seems plausible to me that they may at least see a couple costumes, but a character definitely isn't off the table.

Their games have a pretty decent presence on Switch, some legacy titles such as the old Guilty Gears and Double Dragon available on the eShop (not unlike SNK's catalog) and newer games like Blazblue and DBFZ available as well. They're a company that Nintendo definitely has a good working relationship with.
 
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Dinoman96

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ArcSys is currently the only series in the game to have a full spirit event with no additional content to speak of. This isn't to say they can't stay that way, it's surely possible that this is all they'll get, but it seems odd to me that Nintendo would talk with a company like ArcSys and only get a few River City spirits out of it. Seems plausible to me that they may at least see a couple costumes, but a character definitely isn't off the table.
Personally, I just think it'd be weird that they'd telegraph their involvement in Smash like that with something that isn't a playable character, if they were going to get a character later on.

I dunno, it'd just be like if we got a Perfect Dark spirit event prior to Banjo's unveiling.
 

Cosmic77

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The only reason Persona is in Smash is because of 5.

Before that game, I'm not even sure the franchise would've been on Nintendo's radar. Yes, it had been around for a while, but there wasn't much that made it stand out from the dozens of other JRPGs in terms of popularity and awareness. Even if Persona was about 20 years old when Joker was added, I don't think the franchise's age alone would've been enough. Actually, I think Nintendo would be more inclined to choose a JRPG that debuted only five years ago and became a huge success than one that's existed for ages and was only moderately popular.
 

Louie G.

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Personally, I just think it'd be weird that they'd telegraph their involvement in Smash like that with something that isn't a playable character, if they were going to get a character later on.

I dunno, it'd just be like if we got a Perfect Dark spirit event prior to Banjo's unveiling.
Now that you mention it, I wonder what happened to those Blast Corps / Jet Force Gemini spirits that were supposedly in the game's data.

But yeah, I can see this perspective too. I don't really read it as "telegraphing" though just because say, Guilty Gear and River City Ransom are still two entirely different things - so unless you're reading too hard into stuff like we do as Smash speculators they don't have much correlation at face value.

Mii costumes are a different thing for me though... I dunno, it's complicated. I guess I'd agree if it came lumped with another character like the costumes do, but since the spirit events stand on their own I don't think they mean as much doom for a given company. But again I can understand why people would.
 
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Dinoman96

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I won't deny that Joker's inclusion was mostly based on P5 being a breakout success, but I think it still helped that it was the fifth installment in a long running series. Even if Joker's pack was primarily based on P5, there's still a handful of references and shout-outs to the other Persona games, like the costumes, music tracks (one of which was a remix from Persona 4), and even the way Mementos changes color to reflect each Persona game, same thing with Joker's victory screen.
 
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SneakyLink

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Now that you mention it, I wonder what happened to those Blast Corps / Jet Force Gemini spirits that were supposedly in the game's data.
My guess is the Spirit team wanted to add them except someone did some research and discovered they didn't have the rights to the franchise so they had to be scrapped.

Same story with Devil's Third and I want to say Monster Hunter? (not counting Rathalos)
 

Louie G.

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And the fact that Persona itself was spun off of Shin Megami Tensei, which has been around longer.
I don't think SMT played a factor at all. If it was involved in getting Persona into Smash, then it would have at least had a couple tracks or, bare minimum, a Jack Frost hat or spirit. The content in Smash is entirely Persona so I don't think SMT was a significant part of the conversation ... unfortunately.
 

osby

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And the fact that Persona itself was spun off of Shin Megami Tensei, which has been around longer.
Eh, I doubt it.

SMT has nothing to do with Persona's presence in the West since Persona 4 Golden. I feel like people are just trying to artificially age Persona to make new games seem less likely for Smash than they're actually are.
 

SKX31

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"Mr. Sakurai knows a lot about these big characters, how about we pick them?"
Proceeds to select someone from Garena Free Fire.

Everyone in the major Nintendo regions (JP / NA / EU): "???????"

My guess is the Spirit team wanted to add them except someone did some research and discovered they didn't have the rights to the franchise so they had to be scrapped.

Same story with Devil's Third and I want to say Monster Hunter? (not counting Rathalos)
Yes re: both of those - it was Monster Hunter Ultimate and Devil's Third. IIRC Nexon* owns those rights to Devil's Third even if Nintendo published the Wii U version.

*(South Korean corp, also owns Dungeon Fighter Online and MapleStory. I believe CureParfait is more familiar with Nexon since they've played both games. If a FP2 fighter came from either DFO or MapleStory it'd be legit crazy and I wouldn't mind either of those at all because they legit sound like good candidates.)
 
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RileyXY1

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SMT and Persona have strayed so much from each other it's really hard to consider them the same series

It'd be the equivalent of saying Final Fantasy and Kingdom Hearts are one and the same cuz they both feature some of the same characters
It's like what DKC and Wario Ware are considered. They spun off of Mario and became their own entities.
 

SKX31

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It's like what DKC and Wario Ware are considered. They spun off of Mario and became their own entities.
"But I disagree! Mario and his entire series (+ spinoffs) should be considered Donkey Kong games because Mario started off in the REAL '81 Donkey Kong game!

Ergo, the proper Donkey Kong series has 12 characters (13 with Daisy) - more characters than Fire Emblem - and 4 bad guys!

Why don't I get to join?
Pause. Sighs.

Whatever, your party-fighting-whatever series is new baloney anyway. I'll go back to proper, CLASSIC games."
Quote said by Cranky Kong, Feb. 30th 2015.

:4pacman:

Eh, I doubt it.

SMT has nothing to do with Persona's presence in the West since Persona 4 Golden. I feel like people are just trying to artificially age Persona to make new games seem less likely for Smash than they're actually are.
It's probably the simple connection of "Persona 5 is obviously related to Persona 1" which, while not really wrong, can also get rather misleading due to how ATLUS has handled the series.
 
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7NATOR

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My guess is the Spirit team wanted to add them except someone did some research and discovered they didn't have the rights to the franchise so they had to be scrapped.

Same story with Devil's Third and I want to say Monster Hunter? (not counting Rathalos)

I don't know about Devil's Third, but Sakurai and The Team were working with Rare and Capcom for the Roster (Capcom for Base, Rare for DLC).

I mean it could be a Case where Rare didn't allow those Spirits, Capcom didn't allow those Spirits, and they had to be cut. But Especially for Capcom I don't see why those Spirits had to be cut.

Perhaps they are saved for a later date perhaps

In other news ppl are seriously making a theory of the stopwatch picture from last night :rolleyes:
Of Course, It's Smash Speculation after all. Plus you never know what Conspiracy Theory could pan out
 

Eldrake

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SpectreJordan

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I think that the only requirement for a western IP to get a playable fighter is that it should have been massively popular in Japan. Minecraft is huge there (Switch version ls the best selling third party game on the system) and Banjo-Kazooie had a lot of requests (His first N64 title sold more than 400k, that is something remarkable for a +6M units installbase).

Thus, I think the only western character that qualifies with this requirement is Crash Bandicoot, his PS1 entries (2 and 3) sold more than 1 millon copies. I supposed he has popularity and requests for Smash.

In second place, I would mention Call of Duty, but I don’t think thay can pull a character from there (or maybe yes?)
Call of Duty has several named characters that they could potentially put in Smash. But I feel that series deals with content that’s too mature for Smash. It doesn’t cover up with goofy 4th wall breaks or Sci-fi stuff like MGS either.

This is my guess, in no particular order.



I'm guessing that Steve and CP8 were intended for an E3 reveal, and if the past two E3s were any indication, it seems like they'd end it off with some long-awaited fan favourite. The two big ones that are left seem to be Geno and Isaac (not sure when Waluigi became a popular pick, but I don't think it was as early as those two), and I don't think we'll be getting assist trophy promotions in this DLC. Plus, the timing would match up for the Mario tournament was was announced for "sometime in November or December" (you'd think they could give a specific month, or even have it that weekend) and the Nintendo online open tournament that ends on November 1st. (the last time we had one, Min Min was announced the next day - that one and the upcoming one are the only online open tournaments that we've had, so I'm not sure how reliable that information is, but I wouldn't be surprised if we got an announcement within the first week of November) Smash Ultimate seems to be going out of its way to fulfill as many fan demands as possible (every veteran and most stages returning; hazardless and Battlefield versions of every stage; detailed patch notes; Ridley, K. Rool, and Banjo...), and Geno seems like he'd fit that mindset.

I don't think that the remaining Fighters Pass 2 characters are going to be entirely third party. I feel like Bandanna Dee stands a good chance, given that he's fairly popular in a variety of regions, but Zelda's 35th anniversary is next year, and with Zelda not having a new unique character in Smash for twenty years by that point, I could see them saving one for the end. Impa seems like a "safe" reveal rather than an exciting or unexpected one, but Nintendo rarely seems to end with the biggest announcements. (Brawl ending with Wolf; Smash 4's base game ending with Duck Hunt; Ultimate's base game ending with Ken/Incineroar; Fighters Pass 1 ending with Byleth...)

With Dante, I feel like it could go either way between him or Monster Hunter, but both series are pretty popular at the moment, and some comments by Hideaki Itsuno and Hideki Kamiya have me feeling optimistic about Dante.


While I think that we should get another Namco-Bandai character by this point, they seem really reluctant to bring in any of their own characters for some reason. (maybe it's because they don't want to seem biased? Though having two of the many third party character being from their company doesn't seem like it would come across that way) Meanwhile, Capcom seems to have no problem with including any of their series in Smash. (plus, it would mean that we'd get Dante vs. Bayonetta, and Kamiya regretted not being able to make that happen in Project X Zone 2)

Then there's Ryu Hayabusa, but he seems like a no-brainer. Koei-Tecmo's got a long history (they seem like the last big Japanese third party company that doesn't have a playable character in Smash), Ninja Gaiden's got history stretching back to the NES days and two wildly different styles of games, and Koei-Tecmo's close enough to Nintendo that they can work on a main Fire Emblem game and a Zelda spin-off that's the official backstory for Breath of the Wild. I'm a little surprised that he didn't make it into the base game, and I'll be confused if he's not in the DLC at all.

I'm not 100% sure about the order, though after Bayonetta, I think they'll realize that action characters will take a lot of time to balance if they're going to emulate the gameplay from their home series, so I don't think they'll save Dante or Ryu Hayabusa for the end. I do think that Geno will come out (or at least will get announced) this year if he does get added, and if we get a Zelda character, I think they won't be out until next year, due to their series' respective 35th anniversaries.
Lots of good points here & I generally feel the same way, predictions wise. Impa would be a good pick since she’d be a promotional pick AND a long running fan request, plus she’s just cool. But I sort of feel that if we get a Zelda character, it’ll be someone uniquely BOTW related.

Would you mind posting the updated template with Steve & Alex?
 

JCKirbs

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In other news ppl are seriously making a theory of the stopwatch picture from last night :rolleyes:
But you see, if two clocks stuck in a void were rotating their hands clockwise but with different times shown it must mean that Smash Ultimate gives Sakurai "double-time", which is (and I quote): "a rate of pay equal to double the standard rate, sometimes paid for working on holidays or outside normal working hours". Therefore, it probably means Sakurai is working overtime trying to finish all of these DLC fighters in a timely fashion. The image implies that he is being given an extra paycheck after having to implement such a weird and complex character like Steve into the game.

He is very pleased with his hard work.
 
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3BitSaurus

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Speaking of Valve, anyone remember that post about someone asking Gabe I believe about Gordon Freeman in Smash?
Tbh, it's incredibly difficult to find a company/studio that would say "no" to their character appearing in Smash. Outside of maybe Sony, I can't really think of anyone.

Maybe there's a few who'd ask for a lot of money in return - to the point of not being worth it for Nintendo... but outright deny it? Improbable.
 
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Arcadenik

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and Duck Hunt, the 22nd best selling game of all time (and 2nd best selling NES game overall)
So where were the supporters when I was campaigning for Duck Hunt Dog for Smash for 12 years? I know Duck Hunt Dog wasn't topping the Smash character polls and Rate Their Chances gave him very low scores in chances and wants. There were few people who genuinely wanted Duck Hunt Dog long before the ESRB leak happened. Most people only started jumping on the Duck Hunt Dog bandwagon because of the ESRB leak.
 

Aerospherology

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So where were the supporters when I was campaigning for Duck Hunt Dog for Smash for 12 years? I know Duck Hunt Dog wasn't topping the Smash character polls and Rate Their Chances gave him very low scores in chances and wants. There were few people who genuinely wanted Duck Hunt Dog long before the ESRB leak happened. Most people only started jumping on the Duck Hunt Dog bandwagon because of the ESRB leak.
It wasn't the usual pick for Smash.
 
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