Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Deleted member]

I will say it's interesting that Geno's Spirit can ONLY be found in WoL, not the spirit board or store

Actually, Geno' spirit can be bought in the store, you just have to obtain him once for him to appear there.

He can also be obtained via Summons.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Out of the five remaining costumes, we can rule out two right off the bat. Rathalos and Chicobo are not becoming playable characters. That might be an assumption, but I think most of us can agree with that.

The costume isn't actually a Rathalos but armour made from it used by a Hunter. Kinda funny as I can't imagine Hunter getting in without the Rathalos Armour

 

[BlondeLombax]

It’s my birthday today. Funnily enough, this is the first one I’ve been looking forward to in a while, the past two years have been rough for me age-wise.
But enough about me, how has your morning been, guys?

 

[CannonStreak]

It’s my birthday today. Funnily enough, this is the first one I’ve been looking forward to in a while, the past two years have been rough for me age-wise.
But enough about me, how has your morning been, guys?

Happy birthday, BlondeLombax!

 

[7NATOR]

Out of the five remaining costumes, we can rule out two right off the bat. Rathalos and Chicobo are not becoming playable characters. That might be an assumption, but I think most of us can agree with that.

That leaves Lloyd, Geno, and Hunter (MH). If I had to rule out one more, I'd say Lloyd. We got two Namco costumes in a row (Heihachi and Gil). Why not reveal them with Lloyd if he were a character? Not something they're required to do, but I don't think that's helping Lloyd's case.

All that's left is Geno and Hunter (MH). I could easily see both or neither getting in. I think Hunter (MH) has a decent shot due to how big it is in Japan, but as of now, my money is on each and every costume not being upgraded.

I'm not sure on Lloyd myself, but One arguement I saw was that Lloyd getting in would mean he might come with New Tales of Exclusive Costumes, like Yuri or Luke or Leon or Cress, so perhaps they wanted to get the veteran Namco Costumes out of the way for Space. then again they could have the other Namco costumes for a Full Pack, So I don't know

 

[SharkLord]

Geno's the weird paradox. He's a massive fan request, but in the grand scheme of things, he's pretty minor. If he gets in, it's because of fan support and fan support alone. Maybe Nintendo wants to acknowledge it, maybe they're not willing to get the license for such a minor character. It could go either way.

Given the size and popularity of Tales, I'm hesitant to cut out Lloyd just yet. Still, the fact that the last two returning Miis were from the same company, it's gonna be a pretty close shave. I'll keep my eyes peeled for him in CP8's presentation; if he's not there, I'll be a bit more confident in his chances. For now, I'll just wait and see.

We all know Monster Hunter's pros and cons right now. World made Monster Hunter huge, and now it has a Switch-exclusive titles actively pushed by Nintendo themselves. All things considered, they're in a good spot. Still, let's not get too cocky; We all saw what happened to Travis.

Yeah, I highly doubt we're getting a Chocobo. If anything, we'd get a proper FF7 pack instead of just SSBU Feat. Cloud from FF7.

It’s my birthday today. Funnily enough, this is the first one I’ve been looking forward to in a while, the past two years have been rough for me age-wise.
But enough about me, how has your morning been, guys?

Happy birthday, Lombax!

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Geno's the weird paradox. He's a massive fan request, but in the grand scheme of things, he's pretty minor. If he gets in, it's because of fan support and fan support alone. Maybe Nintendo wants to acknowledge it, maybe they're not willing to get the license for such a minor character. It could go either way.

Schrodinger's Puppet

 

[Lamperouge]

I'm probably the biggest Rex stan in this thread and even I think Billy saying he has a 90% chance is ****ing ludicrous.

 

[MooMew64]

I'm still thinking honestly the pattern of old costumes consistently coming back isn't a good sign IMO.

Like, it isn't a hard deconfirm for anyone of course, but there's a clear pattern that the old ones are coming back with each patch, so CP8 and 9 are gonna be close shaves for Lloyd, Monster Hunter, and Geno.

Not trying to be negative here; I still think these characters all got a shot one way or the other (some more than others IMHO). However, as a Shadow supporter who was convinced he was a lock for an Echo, take it from me: The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

 

[7NATOR]

They already did Get Geno's Licensing for a spirit in this game, and a Costume in the Last game

Now Granted though I would assume the Licensing is Much different From Playable character and Mii Costume and Spirits, because Otherwise I bet we'd see less 3rd party Costumes and Spirits. In a Character, The Stage needs to be Licensed, Music needs to be Licensed, The Spirits of other Characters needs to be Licensed, and etc

Cloud and Hero are seen as Square being Stingy with the Content in Smash, but in Cloud's Case FF7 has alot of Legal Red tape, especially concerning Composer Rights (and Massively true for Dragon Quest as well). Hero, besides the music, has an Appropriate amount of Content, so I don't think Square would mind licensing out Locations and Characters of SMRPG, Especially since they aren't doing anything with them and I believe the Music rights are owned by Yoko, who did work on Smash.

However in the Grand Scheme of things, is the Price needed for all of this worth it to Nintendo to Pay? Geno is a Popular Smash Fan request, However the Casual Audience is a Different question. Geno might be more popular Casually then we might expect because while the Smash bubble is really the only Place Geno is popular in, The Smash Bubble is Popular Place because it is Smash. youtube videos about Smash can be popular and such.

The Legacy of Geno being asked for in Smash might be a bigger thing than some might make it out to be. with that being Said, Geno probably wasn't Planned to be Playable again in this game, So I keep that in mind. hopefully even if Geno doesn't get Playable in Smash, he makes another Appearance some time in the future, Like a SMRPG Remake or Sequel

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Pretty sure the Rathalos Mii Costume is the Rathalos armor, which is the most iconic armor set in the series.

We know Chocobo isn’t going to be playable. It’s between Geno, Lloyd, and Monster Hunter. However, while it doesn’t necessarily disconfirm them I think at the very least the fact that no other costumes have been upgraded (besides Chrom and K.Rool) and we’ve consistently gotten the old DLC costumes back...I don’t know.

We have our characters left, and for all intents and purposes 3 main costumes. Some of them could come with a character from the same company, a similar genre, etc. I’m not quite sure where it’ll lead but I certainly don’t expect 3/4 of the remaining characters to be costume upgrades.

Not to say that Lloyd being playable makes Monster Hunter or Geno less likely, I just really don’t think that’s going to happen.

 

[MarioRaccoon]

Maybe they are re-working Geno’s costume to be a full body premium costume like Sans or Cuphead.

I lost some faith for Lloyd or any Namco-Bandai fighter. Monster Hunter has a great chance to be FP8 as it would be release probably by january of february, 2 months early than MH Rise, similar to Hero that was released 2 months early than DQ XI S, and also fits the the duality of Minecraft (big western IP) and Monster Hunter (big eastern IP) as the two biggest selling points of this FP.

Those 3 (Geno, Lloyd and MH) will return in some form.

 

[CannonStreak]

Maybe they are re-working Geno’s costume to be a full body premium costume like Sans or Cuphead.

I lost some faith for Lloyd or any Namco-Bandai fighter. Monster Hunter has a great chance to be FP8 as it would be release probably by january of february, 2 months early than MH Rise, similar to Hero that was released 2 months early than DQ XI S, and also fits the the duality of Minecraft (big western IP) and Monster Hunter (big eastern IP) as the two biggest selling points of this FP.

Those 3 (Geno, Lloyd and MH) will return in some form.

Well, at least Monster Hunter is big. I can’t say for an obscure game with a certain possessed doll character.

 

[SharkLord]

I feel like we're going to have to wait until the end for a Mii to be promoted. Mostly a gut feeling, seeing as two packs aren't enough to form a pattern, but I just think that's gonna happen.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Maybe they are re-working Geno’s costume to be a full body premium costume like Sans or Cuphead.

I lost some faith for Lloyd or any Namco-Bandai fighter. Monster Hunter has a great chance to be FP8 as it would be release probably by january of february, 2 months early than MH Rise, similar to Hero that was released 2 months early than DQ XI S, and also fits the the duality of Minecraft (big western IP) and Monster Hunter (big eastern IP) as the two biggest selling points of this FP.

Those 3 (Geno, Lloyd and MH) will return in some form.

Frankly, seeing another Bamco fighter beyond Lloyd makes a lot of sense, since his costume can easily come back with that. I.E. Nightmare, Agumon, Chosen Undead, etc. Nobody said every costume must release with a specific company. We've seen tons of costumes moved all over the place. Capcom Co LTD. has tons of costumes and they're thrown into whatever. If Bamco is out, Capcom Co LTD. is in the same position. And they only have one more costume left. They also have multiple IP's too. And it's not like they can make more Capcom or Bamco costumes too.

This is why I feel this point is flawed. I agree it looks bad, but it is hardly a killer for CP8 to be Bamco-related either. I get what you mean by losing some faith.

I still see all the costumes returning as possible, even with the others playable. Remember, if they licensed the costumes, they're getting used anyway. Whether or not the character in question is playable. They can of course negotiate to no longer use them and get their money back, but there's zero reason to. It only makes all the companies more money, so, why not just return them? Better business that way. I can easily see Lloyd playable and his costume returning in another pack(or even the same one), same with Geno and Monster Hunter. Though like said above, I don't see Rathalos being playable. Now, I could see the costumes renegotiated as armor for Monster Hunter to use, removing the Mii versions of them. That would make a lot of sense. This doesn't apply as an idea for Geno or Lloyd(like Rathalos, Chocobo is very unrealistic to happen. Especially after Slime wasn't chosen over Hero).

 

[7NATOR]

I do think every Remaining Returning Costume was Licensed for a Costume before FP2 was greenlit, So I'm gonna assume if any of them are Playable, they will have to Re-Negotiate...which shouldn't be a Problem at all anyway, but I think there will be a Process to that

Nintendo and Sakurai as to look at the Costumes that didn't come back in FP1 (Heihachi, Gil, Monster Hunter, Geno, Chocobo, Lloyd), and Re-Evaulate their Merit to be Playable in Comparison to other characters, especially since They weren't meant to be Playable in the 1st place in the game. Even if Extra DLC was meant to always be a thing, I Imagine Geno at least wouldn't have a Spirit in the game, so I don't know.

Edit: Now Why they were Held back to FP2 is something I wonder. Heihachi made sense since Min-Min was another Fighting Game character, and I Gil I guess makes sense with Steve due to the Treasure Aspect of his Games. Don't know about others

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I do think every Remaining Returning Costume was Licensed for a Costume before FP2 was greenlit, So I'm gonna assume if any of them are Playable, they will have to Re-Negotiate...which shouldn't be a Problem at all anyway, but I think there will be a Process to that

Nintendo and Sakurai as to look at the Costumes that didn't come back in FP1 (Heihachi, Gil, Monster Hunter, Geno, Chocobo, Lloyd), and Re-Evaulate their Merit to be Playable in Comparison to other characters, especially since They weren't meant to be Playable in the 1st place in the game. Even if Extra DLC was meant to always be a thing, I Imagine Geno at least wouldn't have a Spirit in the game, so I don't know.

Edit: Now Why they were Held back to FP2 is something I wonder. Heihachi made sense since Min-Min was another Fighting Game character, and I Gil I guess makes sense with Steve due to the Treasure Aspect of his Games. Don't know about others

Here's the thing; what renegotiating needs to be done at all? The costume returning does nothing but get more money for the companies. The only thing to be done at most is Premium upgrades. Otherwise, scrapping them requires loss of money towards companies. It serves no purpose. If being a costume of a playable character even mattered, we'd never had had the Fox hat, etc. That clearly is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

If any costumes were scrapped, it'd probably be because they weren't ever licensed to begin with for Ultimate. That way there's no waste of money. There's quite literally zero reason to scrap them right now. Let's honestly say we still see Heihachi(no, I don't think he's coming). Why? Because they planned for him to be in and it was easier to throw the costume(that was going to come back anyway) with Min Min at the time.

(Unrelated pet peeve, but is there a reason people call her Min-Min instead of Min Min? Is that a different language version? Or just a typo?)

 

[7NATOR]

Here's the thing; what renegotiating needs to be done at all? The costume returning does nothing but get more money for the companies. The only thing to be done at most is Premium upgrades. Otherwise, scrapping them requires loss of money towards companies. It serves no purpose. If being a costume of a playable character even mattered, we'd never had had the Fox hat, etc. That clearly is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

If any costumes were scrapped, it'd probably be because they weren't ever licensed to begin with for Ultimate. That way there's no waste of money. There's quite literally zero reason to scrap them right now. Let's honestly say we still see Heihachi(no, I don't think he's coming). Why? Because they planned for him to be in and it was easier to throw the costume(that was going to come back anyway) with Min Min at the time.

(Unrelated pet peeve, but is there a reason people call her Min-Min instead of Min Min? Is that a different language version? Or just a typo?)

So Pretty much, Is this suggesting that even if Lloyd, Monster Gunter, and/or Geno become Playable, they'll get their Costumes back?

But you do make a great point. I guess only reason I could think of if They wanted a Character with a Smash 4 Costume playable and they decided to scrap the Costume is because Perhaps Character License is the Same with Spirits, Mii's, and Playable, and they had to instead only get the Stage, Music, etc that comes with a character, but I don't think that's how it works because Licensing changes based on how Important of a role a character plays in a game, So I would expect Playable to be the most expensive since Characters are the main draw of Smash.

As for Min-Min, I honestly did not notice that Min-Min doesn't have a Dash apparently in her name. Though personally I think it looks better.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

So Pretty much, Is this suggesting that even if Lloyd, Monster Gunter, and/or Geno become Playable, they'll get their Costumes back?

But you do make a great point. I guess only reason I could think of if They wanted a Character with a Smash 4 Costume playable and they decided to scrap the Costume is because Perhaps Character License is the Same with Spirits, Mii's, and Playable, and they had to instead only get the Stage, Music, etc that comes with a character, but I don't think that's how it works because Licensing changes based on how Important of a role a character plays in a game, So I would expect Playable to be the most expensive since Characters are the main draw of Smash.

As for Min-Min, I honestly did not notice that Min-Min doesn't have a Dash apparently in her name. Though personally I think it looks better.

I prefer no hyphen, but eh.

I'm saying that yes, the chances of all costumes coming back, if a character is playable or not, is quite likely.

Yes, they could've chosen not to license the costume during the spirit negotiation(well, for Geno, anyway), however, these are done at different times in some cases. Sometimes they license it all at once, or sometimes they're licensed at very different times. Let's say Geno's costume was licensed for Ultimate early on. Next, they have to license the Spirit when it comes up. So what to do with the costume? Probably keep it anyway since it'd be easy to bring back. Then comes DLC pass 2, and they're aware it could come back with Hero, but can't due to many companies being stingy about the DQ property and what can be showcased. So now you need another time. Basically, if it was scrapped, than SE got their money back. If it wasn't, this is what could've happened;

-Geno was chosen for Pass 2. Costume is kept.
-Geno wasn't chosen. Costume is kept.
-Geno wasn't chosen. Costume is upgraded to throw the fanbase a bone and more fanservice.

The second and third does not matter if we get a SE character or not in Pass 2. That's not relevant to them. Now, if SE isn't getting another character, it is possible the costume(and Chocobo) were entirely scrapped and they got their money back and moved on. I see this bit as unlikely, but it's not like it's impossible.

Also, just to clarify, the idea that "they're not the same as licensing for another" isn't true. They are. They're licensing of 3rd party content and the type of content isn't really relevant to that. Costumes, music, whatever. What is relevant however can be how it's used in context. I.E. DQ music being licensed is vastly pricey, bar the midi versions which aren't nearly as bad, but they still needed the good one for the Hero reveal. In the Hero Presentation, they didn't license as much to use there only. I hope that explains why the idea of "they're totally different" isn't really the case in itself. Type of content means little. Context behind the context has meaning.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

For the Mii Costumes, my predictions are that if they're all not going to be playable characters, they'll be with something that's related to their games like Heihachi was to Min-Min (Same genre) and Gil was to Minecraft (Both treasure hunting games) or from the same company. This is purely assuming these are not playable characters.

In which case my predictions are

Lloyd - Either a different Tales of rep like Yuri or Velvet, another Bandai Namco rep such as Nightmare or an anime swordsmen such as Rex and Pyra. I think Rex and Pyra would be the most likely choice here but I could see other anime swordsmen too.

Monster Hunter - Probably Dante, but maybe Phoenix Wright.

Geno and Chocobo - Lara Croft, Sora or a different Mario character such as Waluigi.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

That’s funny, isnt Steve supposed to drop this Tuesday? I don’t see any maintenance scheduled, not even for another recurring Splatfest (Splatoween on the 30th)

Ps. TEAM TRICK BABY

 

[BlondeLombax]

Didn’t Sakurai say he had to re-negotiate to get all the music in the game to play on Battlefield & Final Destination?

 

[7NATOR]

I prefer no hyphen, but eh.

I'm saying that yes, the chances of all costumes coming back, if a character is playable or not, is quite likely.

Yes, they could've chosen not to license the costume during the spirit negotiation(well, for Geno, anyway), however, these are done at different times in some cases. Sometimes they license it all at once, or sometimes they're licensed at very different times. Let's say Geno's costume was licensed for Ultimate early on. Next, they have to license the Spirit when it comes up. So what to do with the costume? Probably keep it anyway since it'd be easy to bring back. Then comes DLC pass 2, and they're aware it could come back with Hero, but can't due to many companies being stingy about the DQ property and what can be showcased. So now you need another time. Basically, if it was scrapped, than SE got their money back. If it wasn't, this is what could've happened;

-Geno was chosen for Pass 2. Costume is kept.
-Geno wasn't chosen. Costume is kept.
-Geno wasn't chosen. Costume is upgraded to throw the fanbase a bone and more fanservice.

The second and third does not matter if we get a SE character or not in Pass 2. That's not relevant to them. Now, if SE isn't getting another character, it is possible the costume(and Chocobo) were entirely scrapped and they got their money back and moved on. I see this bit as unlikely, but it's not like it's impossible.

Also, just to clarify, the idea that "they're not the same as licensing for another" isn't true. They are. They're licensing of 3rd party content and the type of content isn't really relevant to that. Costumes, music, whatever. What is relevant however can be how it's used in context. I.E. DQ music being licensed is vastly pricey, bar the midi versions which aren't nearly as bad, but they still needed the good one for the Hero reveal. In the Hero Presentation, they didn't license as much to use there only. I hope that explains why the idea of "they're totally different" isn't really the case in itself. Type of content means little. Context behind the context has meaning.

Okay so I'm a little confused on the Licensing standpoint

So when it comes to Context though, I'm gonna assume it depends on the Company and their Thoughts toward how their Content should be used. Is this how say the Price of a Particular character changes depending on what role they have in the game

You made the point that about the REAL DQ Music being only used for the Trailer, while the Midi versions were used for the game. I ask that if Nintendo asked the Composer if they wanted the Real versions of the Songs actually in the game and not just the Trailer, that the Composer would increase the Price of the Licensing Costs?

And I guess on the Opposite end, if Say Shantae's Creator didn't mind at all if Shantae was in the game as Spirit, Assist, Playable, that the Licensing would stay the Same No Matter if Shantae is a Spirit, Assist, or Playable?

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Didn’t Sakurai say he had to re-negotiate to get all the music in the game to play on Battlefield & Final Destination?

Wait what? First I’ve heard of this

I thought it was literally just a simple programming change and the negotiations were to have the songs in the game period

 

[latsmash]

Monster Hunter is getting a spirit event around the time Rise releases, so whatever character drops around March (Capcom or not) is coming with the Rathalos Armor.

 

[7NATOR]

Didn’t Sakurai say he had to re-negotiate to get all the music in the game to play on Battlefield & Final Destination?

Wait what? First I’ve heard of this

I thought it was literally just a simple programming change and the negotiations were to have the songs in the game period

Masahiro Sakurai needed permission from all IP owners involved in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate for the ability to choose any song for certain stages

Here's an Article about it. It said they needed Permission, but not that they had to Re-Negotiate

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Okay so I'm a little confused on the Licensing standpoint

So when it comes to Context though, I'm gonna assume it depends on the Company and their Thoughts toward how their Content should be used. Is this how say the Price of a Particular character changes depending on what role they have in the game

You made the point that about the REAL DQ Music being only used for the Trailer, while the Midi versions were used for the game. I ask that if Nintendo asked the Composer if they wanted the Real versions of the Songs actually in the game and not just the Trailer, that the Composer would increase the Price of the Licensing Costs?

And I guess on the Opposite end, if Say Shantae's Creator didn't mind at all if Shantae was in the game as Spirit, Assist, Playable, that the Licensing would stay the Same No Matter if Shantae is a Spirit, Assist, or Playable?

Yeah, that's what I mean by context.

In Shantae's case, she'd probably cost the same for Spirit or Assist, but more for Playable because of more recolors, moves, music, etc.

What I mean is this; they license a character into the game. The role is the context itself. However, to a company, it's not "terribly important" what the role is. It's the amount of content that comes with it that creates the context instead. Shantae would cost more for an AT due to actually more than just a PNG. They also need to speak to them on how she is used when it comes to animations.

They are different, but I think I misunderstood your point. We probably mean the same thing anyway.

----------------

Unrelated, but I'm retracting my theory of all costumes coming back. I didn't actually notice they were often seeing updates for the third party ones. This means either they renegotiated them a lot or just licensed them all later.

This does however mean Premium Geno actually has a reasonable chance of happening. "Why would they update a costume" is no longer a good argument when multiple ones were. Gil, Heihachi, and Knuckles all got updates. That means the costumes were changed. Premium or not, Geno's costume, if it comes back, will require new licensing(which was the only legitimate point against the idea of it coming back, and that's no longer one).

 

[SharkLord]

Monster Hunter is getting a spirit event around the time Rise releases, so whatever character drops around March (Capcom or not) is coming with the Rathalos Armor.

Since when was this stated? I highly doubt an event would be announced this far in advance.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I mean for all we know we may NOT get a MH Rise event. We didn’t get a Doom Eternal event after all

 

[Perkilator]

I just created a support read for Bald Bull.

 

[SharkLord]

I mean for all we know we may NOT get a MH Rise event. We didn’t get a Doom Eternal event after all

In all fairness, Doom Eternal isn't a Switch exclusive.

 

[cashregister9]

I mean for all we know we may NOT get a MH Rise event. We didn’t get a Doom Eternal event after all

Doom Eternal has not released on the switch yet

Also Cuphead, Trials of Mana and Resident Evil have events

 

[SNEKeater]

I mean the costumes for Lloyd, Geno and Monster Hunter could still return even if one of them becomes a fighter. Ultimate already has characters that are both fighters and costumes.
If one of these 3 makes it as playable, I don't see why they would skip his costume. In the end, it's more content.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

In all fairness, Doom Eternal isn't a Switch exclusive.

Fair

but also, there’s tons of third party switch exclusives and also first parties that don’t have events yet

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I mean the costumes for Lloyd, Geno and Monster Hunter could still return even if one of them becomes a fighter. Ultimate already has characters that are both fighters and costumes.
If one of these 3 makes it as playable, I don't see why they would skip his costume. In the end, it's more content.

It depends when they were even licensed. Some might've been licensed for 4 and Ultimate from the start.

However, a lot of them saw visual updates, which Nintendo cannot do without the IP holders renegotiating the license anyway. Updating it to showcase the idea is one thing, but Nintendo has to use the old ones that were already licensed or do a new licensing order to allow its usage if they're changed in any way.

They can easily come back, but new licensing for the costumes is happening almost 100% for sure. So if they didn't have the license for Ultimate, Nintendo isn't necessarily going to re-licensing them anyway. There's no need to in that case. It depends the context, and so far, the returning costumes were visually updated(which means new licensing per each one was done).

 

[latsmash]

Monster Hunter only got a boss and spirit, nothing will convince me that they aren't planning to do something with the IP later. Add the mii costume, include more spirits, I don't think a fighter is happening but it's up in the air.

Also why would Doom Eternal get a spirit event?

 

[JOJONumber691]

Starting to expect Jonesy from Fortnite to Drop into Battle at E3 2021.

 

[Louie G.]

This ended up being a pretty lengthy read, sorry!

So yeah, the Mii Costumes. I've been thinking a lot about this too, so I'll give my two cents. As we know there are five Mii Costumes left, effectively representing four characters. And people only care about three of those characters, since I think it's fair to say Chocobo will not be playable. Chocobo does have a lot to do with my personal theory though, so they're still important and I'll get back to that.

I do want to say, it's no coincidence that the likes of Heihachi, Lloyd, MH and Geno - arguably the four most popular returning Mii Costumes - have stayed absent until FP2. Perhaps they were all considered possible candidates for DLC and held off during the discussion? That's personally how I see it. But anyway...
___

I'll start with Lloyd, who I believe is next on the chopping block. With Heihachi / Min Min and now Gil / Steve, it seems that the Namco costumes are currently being trickled out similarly to Capcom in FP1. Whether or not they'll stop before we get to Lloyd is yet to be seen, but given the current trend it's just not looking great for him. Not to mention, it's a little odd that they would release Namco characters in this fashion for FP2 if they had more content coming down the line. I wouldn't be particularly shocked to see him, but there isn't a whole lot in his favor at the moment. Not to mention that Yuri provides pretty solid competition for him either way, so the hypothetical Tales character might not even be him.
___

Monster Hunter on the other hand... I think they're worth keeping an eye on. As I mentioned before, Capcom costumes can drop alongside any character, but it's worth mentioning that we haven't had any in FP2 yet (old or new). I actually believe these costumes will return either way, since they're just generic armor sets, but of course if they show up without a MH character we can count it out. Monster Hunter is a massive series and one that has grown substantially in the last few years - Monster Hunter World has become Capcom's biggest game ever, and the series has two Switch exclusive titles on the horizon. Seems like a pretty safe bet, but Rathalos already being a boss shakes things up a little bit.

Personally I don't think this matters. Monster Hunter's situation is quite different than it was when (presumably) Rathalos was negotiated for the base game, and with Sakurai's previous statements on ARMS (Spring Man is an AT, too) plus the suggestion that Steve was discussed for nearly five years it's not unreasonable to consider the possibility of MH content being revisited or expanded upon. So in a way, I actually think Rathalos being here is a good thing. It means these discussions have already happened before, and there's no doubt plenty of room for MH's representation to grow. I'd be surprised if a MH character was never at least a passing thought, and there's more reason to pull the trigger on that now than ever.

I think Monster Hunter is pretty likely. There are no "locks" at this point and even my most confident predictions are more like 50/50... but MH is one of the characters I have the closest eye on right now.
___

And last but not least, the infamous Geno. I'll just put it bluntly, I think Geno will be playable. Obviously yes, he's got a good deal of fan demand in his camp and the Smash 4 costume / spirit prove that he can't be so difficult to negotiate for, but my reasoning has more to do with the way costumes have been released thus far.

Both Geno and Chocobo are currently missing. This puts Square Enix in the very unique spot of having absolutely none of its returning costumes released so far. I want to emphasize something that we all know - Square Enix is weird. While these costumes could appear in the second half of FP2 just as easily as Namco's didn't appear until Min Min, I find myself thinking back to Hero's wave of Mii Costumes. During Hero's presentation I was 100% ready to see Geno's costume return, but to my surprise it was only DQ costumes - and not even a full wave, Wave 2 weirdly only having four costumes with no returning costumes for fluff either.

There are several ways to take this, one being that Geno and Chocobo were pulled from that lineup for an unknown reason, as their presence would have led to an average 6 costumes - maybe this is when the planning stages for FP2 were in full swing, or potentially the negotiations themselves? This is likely the point where FP2 plans would have formally begun, soon after Nintendo was at E3 brushing shoulders with some key names in the industry. More than that though, I have this itching feeling that SE costumes will only come with SE characters. And regardless of whether it's Geno or not, I think that we'll get a new SE character in this pass with Chocobo and / or Geno as a costume in that pass. It's theory-craft, but more than anything I think it's awfully fishy that Capcom and Namco have had their Miis released incrementally when Square Enix didn't even see them drop alongside their own character.

I do want to acknowledge the possibility of Chocobo not returning because of Final Fantasy f**kery, but that could go either way in my eyes. Geno's costume will return (or get a makeover) or he will be playable, I'd be shocked if he didn't appear in any capacity given that he's able to at least have a spirit in the game. I foresee him being the hardcore fan pleasing character a la Banjo.

So in conclusion and TLDR, I'm not like super duper confident in anything right now (except maybe Hayabusa?) but Geno and Monster Hunter are easily on my shortlist of characters that I believe have a great shot of being playable according to the current costume release trends and just being a huge series with its foot already in the door respectively.

 

[7NATOR]

Yeah, that's what I mean by context.

In Shantae's case, she'd probably cost the same for Spirit or Assist, but more for Playable because of more recolors, moves, music, etc.

What I mean is this; they license a character into the game. The role is the context itself. However, to a company, it's not "terribly important" what the role is. It's the amount of content that comes with it that creates the context instead. Shantae would cost more for an AT due to actually more than just a PNG. They also need to speak to them on how she is used when it comes to animations.

They are different, but I think I misunderstood your point. We probably mean the same thing anyway.

I get it. that's kind of how I saw it, I did think that a Character being Playable would cost more solely on the Basis of them being Playable, since Playable characters are a bigger draw than Spirits and AT's and Costumes, but I guess it first depends on the Company if they decide they want to charge Higher for Playable, and also the amount of Content as well

In that case though, then does that add more Credence to Someone like Geno becoming Playable without his Costume coming back. If he's Costume was ready to be Released with Hero (especially if it's just the Smash 4 one) but they decided that with FP2, they want Geno Playable, and they could re-use the Mii Outfit as an asset for his Playable incarnation, than at least when it Comes to Geno himself, would there need to be Re-Negotiation? I guess i could see that if Square wants a Specific amount of DLC Profits that fluctuates if it's a character or Costume (if that even is a Stipulation), but otherwise, I Don't know

Square doesn't really care about Geno like they would Cloud and Hero, So I Imagine they wouldn't be strict at all with him, or even have to Oversee his Animations as much. If a Character License base cost is the Same no matter what Form of Content they are present in, but it's the Context that matters, I don't know if the Context Implies that Geno himself would need Extra Money paid to Square to turn him from a Costume to Character Of course the Stages, Music, Spirits, etc would need more Money paid since that is extra content, but I don't know

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I get it. that's kind of how I saw it, I did think that a Character being Playable would cost more solely on the Basis of them being Playable, since Playable characters are a bigger draw than Spirits and AT's and Costumes, but I guess it first depends on the Company if they decide they want to charge Higher for Playable, and also the amount of Content as well

In that case though, then does that add more Credence to Someone like Geno becoming Playable without his Costume coming back. If he's Costume was ready to be Released with Hero (especially if it's just the Smash 4 one) but they decided that with FP2, they want Geno Playable, and they could re-use the Mii Outfit as an asset for his Playable incarnation, than at least when it Comes to Geno himself, would there need to be Re-Negotiation? I guess i could see that if Square wants a Specific amount of DLC Profits that fluctuates if it's a character or Costume (if that even is a Stipulation), but otherwise, I Don't know

Square doesn't really care about Geno like they would Cloud and Hero, So I Imagine they wouldn't be strict at all with him, or even have to Oversee his Animations as much. If a Character License base cost is the Same no matter what Form of Content they are present in, but it's the Context that matters, I don't know if the Context Implies that Geno himself would need Extra Money paid to Square to turn him from a Costume to Character Of course the Stages, Music, Spirits, etc would need more Money paid since that is extra content, but I don't know

A good way to put it is this; Geno's costume would be re-negotiated with Geno playable to not be in the game if and only if it was already licensed for Hero. And yes, absolutely Geno would cost more due to the extra content. His costume may even have to cost slightly more to get(or the same price, but new agreements) if it gets even slightly updated and comes back. Whether or not Geno is playable doesn't change they'd have to possibly re-license the costume.

Also, it's not "because they're playable and thus a bigger draw", it's more "they're playable and inherently have more content and generally cost more". For the most part, companies just see the usage of their IP as a one size fits all situations. It's the amount of content that becomes what the context is.