Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[LiveStudioAudience]

If Geno does get in it will be because Nintendo and/or Sakurai recognizes there's a demand by Smash fans for him. The latter might like him, but I suspect there's plenty of characters that he's more interested in.

 

[Voe]

Sakurai had his chance to add Geno in the base roster. He didn't take it. Now Nintendo chooses the characters.

To be brutally honest, I don't think Sakurai wants Geno as much as people think. I feel like Geno is never a big enough priority for him to add over other characters he's considering, so he settles for things like Spirits and Mii costumes.

I'm willing to bet Geno will show up as DLC but as one of those special Mii costumes. His costume made it in Smash 4 DLC so it shouldn't be too difficult to edit it into a complete model.

 

[PeridotGX]

What do you think will be the next fan-rule/taboo to be broken? Ultimate has already given us so many examples!
"too big"
"irrelevant"
"dead franchise"
"no generic enemies"
"too many Fire Emblem characters"

no electric/steel (formerly pure electric) type pokemon that evolves from magnemite at level 30 and evolve into Magnezone when exposed to a magnetic force (Sinnoh-Alola) or a thunderstone (Galar).

 

[Peeton]

Yeah, as a Funko collector it's pretty much impossible for me to see the "ugly" here. Also, it actually is a variety of Funko anyway.

Anyway, let's talk about Smash Bros. for some reason. I feel like the "bare minimum" I need to be content with FP2 is either one more first-party character, or Crash Bandicoot. Gut feeling, what are my odds? Do you have a bare minimum of your own?

Mine is a Xenoblade 2 character. I just have no faith in any of my other wants. I don’t even think Geno or Dante is gonna happen

 

[DarthEnderX]

Finally, the end of 's reign.

I dunno man. "Greninja'd" still sounds better than "Hayabusa'd"

 

[cashregister9]

Yeah, as a Funko collector it's pretty much impossible for me to see the "ugly" here. Also, it actually is a variety of Funko anyway.

Anyway, let's talk about Smash Bros. for some reason. I feel like the "bare minimum" I need to be content with FP2 is either one more first-party character, or Crash Bandicoot. Gut feeling, what are my odds? Do you have a bare minimum of your own?

A niche character like Estelle, Sakura or Saber

 

[JamesDNaux]

Do you have a bare minimum of your own?

Steve sunk the bar so low that anything would be an improvement at this point. Any generally hype character will do for me, even Crash.

But I'll never truly rest until Rayman gets in.

 

[SKX31]

What do you think will be the next fan-rule/taboo to be broken? Ultimate has already given us so many examples!
"too big"
"irrelevant"
"dead franchise"
"no generic enemies"
"too many Fire Emblem characters"

The next rule to be broken is that will no longer be the only character in the game with Dedede hitboxes.

That's right, Masked King Dedede time!

Spoiler

Dedede hitboxes are completely indistinguishable from normal ones, and likely a workaround for his hammer's sound effects.

If Geno does get in it will be because Nintendo and/or Sakurai recognizes there's a demand by Smash fans for him. The latter might like him, but I suspect there's plenty of characters that he's more interested in.

Pretty much what I'm thinking re: him. Geno's also in wonky territory, although we won't know how wonky that territory is until either the character or the Mii costume shows up. Or FP11 comes and goes without him.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Anyway, let's talk about Smash Bros. for some reason. I feel like the "bare minimum" I need to be content with FP2 is either one more first-party character, or Crash Bandicoot. Gut feeling, what are my odds? Do you have a bare minimum of your own?

Both additions in the pass thus far were amongst my dream characters. I'm more than content.

At this point, I'm just here for the ride.

 

[Koopaul]

What do you think will be the next fan-rule/taboo to be broken? Ultimate has already given us so many examples!
"too big"
"irrelevant"
"dead franchise"
"no generic enemies"
"too many Fire Emblem characters"

I think that last one isn't a fan rule but rather a preference. People mostlt say "too many Fire Emblem characters" when talking about what they don't want.

 

[CannonStreak]

Speaking of Geno, I brought this up in the Geno thread, and might as well share this here: With Geno's costume and a few other remaining, and with no other DLC costumes which have returned even promoted to playable characters, not counting Isabelle, Inkling and K. Rool, as they were in the base game; does anyone think that with no costume to playable upgrades yet in both DLC passes, do you guys think Geno is less likely to happen now that we have a few costumes left, and no one else has been promoted from being a costume before?

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Tfw you weren't actually serious about Geno being brought up again but Geno still gets brought up because of your own comment

 

[Dr. Yatagarasu]

Speaking of Geno, I brought this up in the Geno thread, and might as well share this here: With Geno's costume and a few other remaining, and with no other DLC costumes which have returned even promoted to playable characters, not counting Isabelle, Inkling and K. Rool, as they were in the base game; does anyone think that with no costume to playable upgrades yet in both DLC passes, do you guys think Geno is less likely to happen now that we have a few costumes left, and no one else has been promoted from being a costume before?

I mean, it's possible one could get upgraded, but at this point there is a very strong trend of costumes slowly coming back.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Speaking of Geno, I brought this up in the Geno thread, and might as well share this here: With Geno's costume and a few other remaining, and with no other DLC costumes which have returned even promoted to playable characters, not counting Isabelle, Inkling and K. Rool, as they were in the base game; does anyone think that with no costume to playable upgrades yet in both DLC passes, do you guys think Geno is less likely to happen now that we have a few costumes left, and no one else has been promoted from being a costume before?

It could still go either way with 4 fighters left, but the trend of old Mii Costumes returning is pretty concerning for Geno's chances.

 

[CannonStreak]

It could still go either way with 4 fighters left, but the trend of old Mii Costumes returning is pretty concerning for Geno's chances.

You mean...the fact that most DLC costumes, or all, have not been promoted to playable? Yeah, I would actually say that is concerning for Geno.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Speaking of Geno, I brought this up in the Geno thread, and might as well share this here: With Geno's costume and a few other remaining, and with no other DLC costumes which have returned even promoted to playable characters, not counting Isabelle, Inkling and K. Rool, as they were in the base game; does anyone think that with no costume to playable upgrades yet in both DLC passes, do you guys think Geno is less likely to happen now that we have a few costumes left, and no one else has been promoted from being a costume before?

It's possible. Albeit, it helps those were also 1st party characters and had the ballot to back some up as is, or iconic nature.

Geno being Premium(as in full head to toe for the purpose of what I mean, since that is clearly not a defined term) is not impossible either. But that also requires extra licensing to change, so who knows if Nintendo wants to do that.

There's a rumor that Cloud was licensed for Ultimate at the same time as 4. Is it possible Geno was licensed as a costume for both? It's possible renegotiations happened later when his Spirit was added(which apparently Spirits were decided a bit later in development, not in time to license anything for both Ultimate and 4). I forget, what were all the final volume of costumes in 4? Besides Geno.

 

[CannonStreak]

It's possible. Albeit, it helps those were also 1st party characters and had the ballot to back some up as is, or iconic nature.

Geno being Premium(as in full head to toe for the purpose of what I mean, since that is clearly not a defined term) is not impossible either. But that also requires extra licensing to change, so who knows if Nintendo wants to do that.

There's a rumor that Cloud was licensed for Ultimate at the same time as 4. Is it possible Geno was licensed as a costume for both? It's possible renegotiations happened later when his Spirit was added(which apparently Spirits were decided a bit later in development, not in time to license anything for both Ultimate and 4). I forget, what were all the final volume of costumes in 4? Besides Geno.

I see. Those rumors might be possible. Still, I must ask; Geno is a third party character, right? So how does it help that there were also 1st party characters, as you said in your first line?

 

[Cosmic77]

I will say, I don't think Geno is in the worst position out of all the Mii costumes. That isn't saying much, but still.

Regardless, there's four characters left, and we're still missing a Tales costume, a FF hat, a SMRPG costume, and two MH costumes. Assuming the MH costumes return together, that's enough for one per bundle. Not a very reassuring sign if you ask me.

 

[CannonStreak]

I will say, I don't think Geno is in the worst position out of all the Mii costumes. That isn't saying much, but still.

Regardless, there's four characters left, and we're still missing a Tales costume, a FF hat, a SMRPG costume, and two MH costumes. Assuming the MH costumes return together, that's enough for one per bundle. Not a very reassuring sign if you ask me.

For Geno? If so, yeah, that was what I was trying to say. This is not so reassuring for him, and not being in the worst position is, well as you said. With the number of characters left as DLC costumes, it could go either way for Geno.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Speaking of Geno, I brought this up in the Geno thread, and might as well share this here: With Geno's costume and a few other remaining, and with no other DLC costumes which have returned even promoted to playable characters, not counting Isabelle, Inkling and K. Rool, as they were in the base game; does anyone think that with no costume to playable upgrades yet in both DLC passes, do you guys think Geno is less likely to happen now that we have a few costumes left, and no one else has been promoted from being a costume before?

I think there are three possible outcomes for Geno.

1. All third party Smash 4 costumes return with no fighter upgrades, Geno is doomed.
2. One of the three other costumes becomes a fighter whether it be Lloyd Irving, Monster Hunter or the most unlikely of the bunch, Chocobo. Geno is doomed.
3. Geno is fighter 11 but the Mii costume comes with him anyway. Geno is safe... and doomed at the same time.

 

[SneakyLink]

I think there are three possible outcomes for Geno.

1. All third party Smash 4 costumes return with no fighter upgrades, Geno is doomed.
2. One of the three other costumes becomes a fighter whether it be Lloyd Irving, Monster Hunter or the most unlikely of the bunch, Chocobo. Geno is doomed.
3. Geno is fighter 11 but the Mii costume comes with him anyway. Geno is safe... and doomed at the same time.

So basically... Geno is doomed even when he’s safe?
Sounds ominous...

 

[CannonStreak]

I think there are three possible outcomes for Geno.

1. All third party Smash 4 costumes return with no fighter upgrades, Geno is doomed.
2. One of the three other costumes gains a fighter whether it be Lloyd Irving, Monster Hunter or the most unlikely of the bunch, Chocobo. Geno is doomed.
3. Geno is fighter 11 but the Mii costume comes with him anyway. Geno is safe... and doomed at the same time.

Not to sound like a fanboy by saying this, but I think there are more possibilities than just those seemingly pessimistic outcomes. Feel free to think what you want, but I don't think those are the only three.

Anyways, those in the Geno thread have posted evidence, and some of those insides like from ResetERA even hinted at Geno. Still, do you guys think the insiders and possible evidence, circumstantial or not, are just trying to troll Geno fans and are not really meaning Geno is actually in the game as a playable in some way?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I see. Those rumors might be possible. Still, I must ask; Geno is a third party character, right? So how does it help that there were also 1st party characters, as you said in your first line?

Yes, he's completely 3rd party. That's why seeing his costume in base never felt likely at all, assuming he wasn't going to be playable. It's kind of odd that 3rd party costumes are all DLC again, but that's probably just to "more companies get more money".

I've spoken of this theory before, but they probably didn't re-license most costumes for Ultimate right away because DLC wasn't a thing. It's a hindsight-related theory, mind you. DLC, as I noted, wasn't greenlit from the start. It's possible the later costumes(bar maybe the last set, which includes Geno) from the final set were the only ones licensed for Ultimate base game, but moved to DLC.

Though worth noting that outside of changing negotiations, they are going to use any costumes they licensed. If Geno is a licensed costume, and kept that way, he'll come back as one, even if they agree Premium is better in the long run. This wouldn't change anything about Geno being a playable character either, as that's a different thing. It goes without saying if we see Geno's costume next character, he's probably not playable. If we see him playable, his costume is not necessarily scrapped either.

It's also possible Nintendo thought on just bringing the costume back and never licensed it for Ultimate period. So they can't reuse it without licensing regardless. Would you believe many don't realize this is how licensing works and "returning the costume" entirely depends upon what SE allows? It's been hard explaining the basics of licensing.

Related, this is why porting over Ultimate is very difficult. Anything they want back has to be licensed all over again. Characters, Spirits, Music, Costumes, etc. Sakurai noted getting the licensing for this game was highly difficult, and likely won't happen again, Sooooooo. I wouldn't expect a port whatsoever. Just a new game, with cut content. I can only hope we get everyone back again.

Though one last thing to note; if Geno is Premium, I doubt he'll be playable too. If Geno's costume returns as regular, it's possible we see it after Geno being playable. We have yet to see a single scrapped 3rd party costume, and there's a good chance all are returning as is, regardless of one of them being playable. Thought that's only because we keep seeing them all come back at this point. It's not much of a theory based upon evidence, just purely observation. Likewise, when licensing a playable character, they may just scrap the Mii costume of them instead and not re-license it. Both are viable options. Returning every costume does make the other companies more money, so in a way, they'd say yes easily to the licensing. But that's a likely outcome, not necessarily the actual outcome.

 

[7NATOR]

Geno will be a Major Part of FP2, but whether that's as Upgraded Costume or Playable will remain to be Seen

With all the Rumors and Hints and Takedowns I've seen that has surrounded Geno, None of them have Hinted at Geno SPECIFICALLY being Playable, but that he will be in FP2 in some form. The best thing I've seen regarding him being Playable is Mii Costume guy saying Mallow/Smithy being Mii Costumes along with the Rest of Banjo's Pack Mii costumes (sans Sans), but That Claim was before Banjo's Pack was revealed (so over a year ago), He didn't get Sans, and Mallow/Smithy were the only costumes on that list that haven't made been made Public over a Year in advance

 

[cosmicB]

Broke: Geno becomes playable
Woke: Geno's costume returns and gets a "premium" upgrade
Bespoke: Geno doesn't return at all because he's such a low priority and his sole representation is the base game spirit.

 

[7NATOR]

Oh I don't know If I Missed the Discussion, or you guys didn't talk about it, but...

Moon Studios Would "Love" To See Ori In Smash Bros. Ultimate, Tells Fans To Tweet Head Of Xbox About It

"this could be amazing"

www.nintendolife.com

It seems like Ori is currently not Planned to be in the game in any form, given by the wording they are giving.

 

[AceAttorney9000]

My stance on the missing Mii Fighter costumes is that at least one or two of them will become playable... not all of them, but at least one or two, which is why Heihachi and Gil coming back so far hasn't really shaken up my stance.

We've got four costumes still MIA, and three of them are huge fan requests. If any of them are gonna become playable or stay as Mii costumes, we're likely gonna find out around Fighter 8's reveal/release.

Broke: Geno doesn't return at all because he's such a low priority and his sole representation is the base game spirit.
Woke: Geno's costume returns and gets a "premium" upgrade
Bespoke: Geno becomes playable because he's a huge fan request

FTFY

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Oh I don't know If I Missed the Discussion, or you guys didn't talk about it, but...

Moon Studios Would "Love" To See Ori In Smash Bros. Ultimate, Tells Fans To Tweet Head Of Xbox About It

"this could be amazing"

www.nintendolife.com

It seems like Ori is currently not Planned to be in the game in any form, given by the wording they are giving.

not even a costume? nooooooooooo

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Honestly I've mentally prepared myself for Geno's costume coming back and only being shown off at the end of the second pass because if Cacomallow still has faithful cultists then we're probably in for a worst case scenario

 

[Michael the Spikester]

The second episode of Billybo10K's Season 3 of Rate Their Chances.

Spoiler

Phoenix Wright
Chance: 80%
Want: 75%

Rex & Pyra
Chance: 90%
Want: 85%

Sora
Chance: 35%
Want: 85%

Doom Slayer
Chance: 30%
Want: 90%

 

[7NATOR]

The second episode of Billybo10K's Season 3 of Rate Their Chances.

I think you should have Spoilered the Scores honestly

But in any case, I would Personally Rate Doom Slayer Lower, but Otherwise I agree with the Sentiment, even if I don't Personally think Rex, Phoenix, and Sora (and Especially Doom Slayer) will be in FP2.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I think you should have Spoilered the Scores honestly

And done. Can go ahead and remove them from my quoted post.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Not to sound like a fanboy by saying this, but I think there are more possibilities than just those seemingly pessimistic outcomes. Feel free to think what you want, but I don't think those are the only three.

Anyways, those in the Geno thread have posted evidence, and some of those insides like from ResetERA even hinted at Geno. Still, do you guys think the insiders and possible evidence, circumstantial or not, are just trying to troll Geno fans and are not really meaning Geno is actually in the game as a playable in some way?

These are just the outcomes I see happening because Nintendo is choosing the characters. Fighter 11 could have some sort of significance if it's not just there to show that there are six fighters instead of five and I could see Sakurai saving him for last if that's the case. Otherwise Geno is done for. Even if he does become a fighter, there's no reason to leave the mii costume behind.

As for the insiders talking about Geno, I think it's best not to take notice of them until they start doubling down on him.

 

[CannonStreak]

Also about Geno, was he even intended to be playable at all? Not to rule out the possibility, but with him being just a spirit in the base game, the Mii costumes thing I mentioned, his costume not in yet overall, the thing that they might have wanted to focus on Hero from Dragon Quest first, the long time since the music takedowns as well as other leaks from like one or two years ago with Geno not showing up and maybe getting Cloud into Smash 4 and Ultimate (which was difficult because of Nintendo not wanting to do certain things with Cloud, voice actor and all, and I believe it could have affected Geno some in terms of getting in Smash 4 and Ultimate. I could be wrong, but he was considered for at least Smash 4, was he not?) and the fact that he is an obscure character compared to many other Square Enix characters anyway and Nintendo mainly choosing the DLC (with Sakurai possibly picking out which ones were chosen by them to actually make, maybe); I am starting to think Geno should have been in by now if Sakurai really wanted him in.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I will say it's interesting that Geno's Spirit can ONLY be found in WoL, not the spirit board or store

 

[Wunderwaft]

Yeah, Rex is probably the most likely first party character I can see right now. XC2 alongside ARMS were mentioned by Sakurai as unfortunately missing the base game due to timing. We got an ARMS fighter in this pass now and that leaves us with Rex.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I will say it's interesting that Geno's Spirit can ONLY be found in WoL, not the spirit board or store

Wow Geno's as relevant as Shanoa this means I can start my own Shanoa social thread

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

The second episode of Billybo10K's Season 3 of Rate Their Chances.

Spoiler

Phoenix Wright
Chance: 80%
Want: 75%

Rex & Pyra
Chance: 90%
Want: 85%

Sora
Chance: 35%
Want: 85%

Doom Slayer
Chance: 30%
Want: 90%

I'd move Rex & Pyra lower. But otherwise, this looks pretty good, imo.

Doom Slayer is in an odd position due to a lack of full information on our part. As Pass 2's negotiations being finished is unknown to us, it's absolutely possible he could've been gotten after the interview was finished. Even then, it's vague on exactly when the last talks overall happened. And then suddenly we get a costume due to the talks? Something always felt up. That's why I just consider him unlikely with all the information in mind. I don't actually think he's happening at this point, but that's more due to "difficult to properly represent" in the same way works like Resident Evil would be. Stuff like Spirits/etc. are a lot harder than just Doom Slayer himself. And people have gotten annoyed at 3rd parties lacking content too, and we know Spirit Boards are pretty vast. It's not as bad as RE design-wise, admittedly. ...No, I don't mean silly reasons like the BFG, which'll just never be spelled out in any description, obviously.

(To further note, Mortal Kombat I put in a very different category. It's actually a lot easier to represent with just heavy violence without blood/gore/etc. easily, like in other games, but it not being popular in Japan affects it way more in comparison. Not an unknown entity, either. But as they can't fully sell the games, this hurts the promotional impact. Master Chief is an example of a character who doesn't have this issue, which puts him in a better spot).

(Yes, I'm aware I didn't reply to your last post, 7NATOR. I couldn't think of anything more to say at that point).

 

[Cosmic77]

Out of the five remaining costumes, we can rule out two right off the bat. Rathalos and Chicobo are not becoming playable characters. That might be an assumption, but I think most of us can agree with that.

That leaves Lloyd, Geno, and Hunter (MH). If I had to rule out one more, I'd say Lloyd. We got two Namco costumes in a row (Heihachi and Gil). Why not reveal them with Lloyd if he were a character? Not something they're required to do, but I don't think that's helping Lloyd's case.

All that's left is Geno and Hunter (MH). I could easily see both or neither getting in. I think Hunter (MH) has a decent shot due to how big it is in Japan, but as of now, my money is on each and every costume not being upgraded.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

I will say it's interesting that Geno's Spirit can ONLY be found in WoL, not the spirit board or store

Aren't most spirits that are popular requested characters like that? I think Isaac and Shantae are the same.