Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[LiveStudioAudience]

Prediction time? Sure.

Crash, Crono, Dante, Doomguy, Geno, Gordon, Hayabusa, Lara, Lloyd, Master Chief, Rayman, Scorpion, Sora.

I predict that the remaining Third-Party selection will be among these characters.

Yeah, outside Crash, most of my predictions are basically companies with a couple of character possibilities from each:

-Square Enix
-Capcom
-Bandai Namco

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

All you need is 1 block to relieve yourself and jump more.

It would be even slower than just double jumping though. It wouldn't be a viable tactic in most stages unless someone was camping.

 

[volbound1700]

It would be even slower than just double jumping though. It wouldn't be a viable tactic in most stages unless someone was camping.

Steve looks like the best camper so far in the game. His move set definitely opens things up to camping.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Has things settled down.

 

[7NATOR]

Do we have any evidence for how long it takes to license a mii fighter costume and then finish it in development? Because depending on the answer, I might be thinking to consider almost all mii costume leaks older than 6 months fake if they missed most of the mii costumes in the last two or three packs.

I think it depends on the character

I heard with Sans it took 6 months to fully model him and then make sure he was in playable state. To be fair with him he never had a 3d Model for reference. Also he's one of those Really good looking costumes too so it probably took more effort

That's also probably why they have a mixture of Both Old and New Mii costumes. They probably focus on Costumes that come with Character(s), so characters not in development, their costume probably not too

 

[Cosmic77]

Steve does seem to have trash range with his attacks, but you can upgrade weapons for more power.

I guess I'll have to see him in action before I can form a solid opinion. However, I think it'll be pretty easy for people to figure out how to counter Steve.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

You know what

SCREW IT

if E3 would have had Steve (FP7) AND FP8 as a dual reveal I’m calling that both would be ABSURDLY HUGE worldwide

thats right I’m putting my chips on FP8 being from LoL and the HK costume coming with them

would also work ABSURDLY well as a TGA reveal too, not that I’m counting on that happening

 

[pupNapoleon]

I was a big fan of Steve...

but now I need to buy that sword/pickaxe Sakurai had.
So I'm a bit sad about this quality of life necessity purchase

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

You know what

SCREW IT

if E3 would have had Steve (FP7) AND FP8 as a dual reveal I’m calling that both would be ABSURDLY HUGE worldwide

thats right I’m putting my chips on FP8 being from LoL and the HK costume coming with them

would also work ABSURDLY well as a TGA reveal too, not that I’m counting on that happening

Ehhh... I feel e3 at most was probably just Min Min and Steve tbh

 

[cashregister9]

PREDICTION TIME
None of them are in any particular order

PERSONAL LIST
-Estelle
-Saber
-Sakura
-Crash


PREDICTION AKA I am indecisive
-Gordon Freeman OR Sora
-Phoenix Wright OR Crash
-Kiryu OR Sakura
-Estelle OR Hayabusa OR Euden

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Well I'm glad Bomberman is playable in Smash after a fashion but RIP Travis Touchdown from the hit Wii game Travis.

With Gil's armor in the game now I think that's almost all the Smash 4 costumes. There's Monster Hunter, Geno, Chocobo and I think one more I'm forgetting.

 

[N3ON]

You know what

SCREW IT

if E3 would have had Steve (FP7) AND FP8 as a dual reveal I’m calling that both would be ABSURDLY HUGE worldwide

thats right I’m putting my chips on FP8 being from LoL and the HK costume coming with them

would also work ABSURDLY well as a TGA reveal too, not that I’m counting on that happening

I think the only way FP8 was going to be at E3 is if Min Min and Steve were both originally set to release several months earlier than either did.

And given how Sakurai said we were in for a wait after Byleth, I doubt that was the case.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Well I'm glad Bomberman is playable in Smash after a fashion but RIP Travis Touchdown from the hit Wii game Travis.

With Gil's armor in the game now I think that's almost all the Smash 4 costumes. There's Monster Hunter, Geno, Chocobo and I think one more I'm forgetting.

Rathalos & Lloyd Irving

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Well I'm glad Bomberman is playable in Smash after a fashion but RIP Travis Touchdown from the hit Wii game Travis.

With Gil's armor in the game now I think that's almost all the Smash 4 costumes. There's Monster Hunter, Geno, Chocobo and I think one more I'm forgetting.

Lloyd's the one you forgot.


All I expect is Dante and maybe Demifiend or SMTV Twink

 

[pupNapoleon]

I dunno about that one,

Amiibo theory already has a margin of error accounted for for 2~ weeks

View attachment 288156

I'm so happy this wasn't on my SAT's. Why are there two columns beneath half the dates that are unexplained???

Could point to the next figher being a RPG character, since Heihachi came with Min Min, a fighting game character.

This is Smash Bros--- an RPG character is ALWAYS coming

 

[volbound1700]

I am surprised we don't have FP#8 revealed at this point with a December release. Do you think COVID-19 is causing it? It just seems like we are behind schedule having 4 characters still left with a Dec 21 finish.

 

[KillerCage]

I don't normally make predictions but based on the evidence I've seen, I think the remaining four DLC fighters are:
Ryu Hayabusa
Ray Man
Rex & Pyra
Arle Nadja

As much as I want Doomguy, I don't think we would get three Western characters in the second Fighters's Pass.
Plus Hayabusa fills in the spot for a M-rated character.

 

[Shroob]

I'm so happy this wasn't on my SAT's. Why are there two columns beneath half the dates that are unexplained???

This is Smash Bros--- an RPG character is ALWAYS coming

Ask epicmartin7

 

[SKX31]

Things have calmed down?

Things have calmed down.

Okay, I'mma follow up on my post made this Thursday regarding Steve's gameplay:

I'll reiterate that Steve is very likely to be focused around stage control, farming and counter-zoning. Not just through getting "better" materials (with the materials being ordered Wood - > Stone - > Iron -> Gold -> Diamond. Redstone is a speciality.) but the character will want as many - and varied - resources as possible. Especially since crafting prioritizes the "highest" that's been mined and block-creating prioritizes the cheapest. This is coupled with the fact that his normals are quick but short-ranged - meaning that the character will get outranged by swordies.

Steve's going to be able to get Iron - and that's the primary resource he wants since multiple moves depend on it. Steve will also want dirt / wood and lots of it for blocks. Diamond is going to be the "Gotta rush and craft amazing weapons" material. Contrary to what I previously believed, Gold will have offensive use - it buffs his frame data and allows much faster attacks, meaning it's practically a "Get off me" material while Steve tries to get Wood / Iron / Diamond. Stone falls inbetween wood and iron, and will likely supplement wood as a block-creating material while being a little stronger than it.

Blocks can evidently tank Samus' Charge Shot, and this is going to be key to him. Place a block or a couple, retreat, summon crafting table and craft. This will likely make him an excellent counter-zoner, especially against slower zoners like Mii Gunner. Since blocks can be placed mid air it also serves many different purposes like Rival of Aether's Kragg and his Earth Pillar:

I'll get back to this in a bit.

While we don't know Steve's stats, they likely aren't the greatest. His run speed doesn't look like Falcon's. Hir air speed seems kind of wonky, while he's also seemingly a fastfaller (unless my eyes decieved me here). His jump height is shorter than Mac, meaning he'll have to commit a double jump to reach a platform. That's not to say he lacks anti-air options - he does not - but the low jump height practically ensures that he'll have to rely on the double jump more. Still though, one shouldn't draw too many conclusions since we don't know his frame data (and Sakurai's not the guy to casually draw up a frame data menu).

Another weakness that Steve's likely to have is that he'll likely be outranged by swords, and that he's very reliant on the materials. If he lacks iron for example he's going to be less versatile at the moment. If he lacks dirt / wood / stone he'll have to expend precious iron+ materials. He also needs Redstone for the TNT box.

A third weakness of his is potentially the Up B - how little vertical reach it seems to have that is. It's likely to be an amazing horizontal glide, but the hitbox is at the start of the move and he doesn't have the luxury of a glide attack. So Steve will have to rely on blocks for off stage play a bit more, even in disadvantage. And it seems like Steve can't farm while on a block.

That said, as DougEfresh said, his advantage state and off stage play is going to be fantastic. Recoveries without a hitbox? Steve can just decide to place blocks like Kragg in the recovery's way and stifle them that way. Recoveries with a hitbox? Downair is a stall and fall that Steve can jump off of, meaning that / will likely get wrecked by the anvil just as they get wrecked by Villager's Bowling Ball. Other linear recoveries (like ) will also suffer heavily from the anvil to the head. And then there's down tilt (which travels down like PK Fire, meaning it can potentially two frame in the right conditions), and Down Smash (which covers a lot of horizontal space). The TNT box is a trap card in itself, especially near the edge. His other aerials don't have much range, but can potentially trade with recoveries.

Like DougEfresh noted. Steve is going to suffer when he's agressed upon and doesn't get the space to get the materials he needs. But slower characters and zoners are not likely to get as many opportunities to close in. If Steve gets to set up shop, he's going to be a nightmare to evict.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

As much as I want Doomguy, I don't think we would get three Western characters in the second Fighters's Pass.
Plus Hayabusa fills in the spot for a M-rated character.

Oh boy, can't wait for Ryu from the Ryu series!

 

[N3ON]

I am surprised we don't have FP#8 revealed at this point with a December release. Do you think COVID-19 is causing it? It just seems like we are behind schedule having 4 characters still left with a Dec 21 finish.

If FP8 releases in Jan/Feb, FP9 releases in Spring sometimes, FP10 in late summer/early fall, and FP11 by the deadline, that would still check out.

I think covid complications probably pushed Steve back about a month, and therefore maybe the others as well, but I don't think the schedule will be that erratic going forward. It's just a smaller team, so the gaps are longer.

 

[Cosmic77]

These are the remaining costumes:

Chocobo hat
Geno outfit
Lloyd outfit
Hunter outfit
Rathalos outfit

Gil and his series was easily the least popular of the remaining costumes, so I guess people can relax a little while longer. Still, today gave me even more of a reason to expect these costumes to return in the future.

 

[Idon]

If FP8 releases in Jan/Feb, FP9 releases in Spring sometimes, FP10 in late summer/early fall, and FP11 by the deadline, that would still check out.

I think covid complications probably pushed Steve back about a month, and therefore maybe the others as well, but I don't think the schedule will be that erratic going forward. It's just a smaller team, so the gaps are longer.

One smash character for all the 4 seasons of 2021...

We are in it for the long haul...

 

[volbound1700]

If FP8 releases in Jan/Feb, FP9 releases in Spring sometimes, FP10 in late summer/early fall, and FP11 by the deadline, that would still check out.

I think covid complications probably pushed Steve back about a month, and therefore maybe the others as well, but I don't think the schedule will be that erratic going forward. It's just a smaller team, so the gaps are longer.

Yeah but a balance schedule would indicate 3 releases in 2020 and 3 releases in 2021.

 

[StrangeKitten]

Well dang, rip Travis. Also we're definitely waiting till 2021 for CP8, though that wasn't much of a surprise. I suppose a December reveal could be possible, and then release like a month or so later, but I'm not holding my breath. They seem to be doing reveal + release right next to each other as of late, which unfortunately probably means we're waiting longer to know who it is.

My money's on Ryu Hayabusa, not necessarily for 8, but anywhere in the pass. Now that we know fighters can take a very long time to come to fruition, the fact that many insiders were saying Hayabusa makes me feel we're likely to get him at some point

 

[N3ON]

Yeah but a balance schedule would indicate 3 releases in 2020 and 3 releases in 2021.

Not when you consider the true starting point for releases was half-way through 2020.

 

[Cosmic77]

I am surprised we don't have FP#8 revealed at this point with a December release. Do you think COVID-19 is causing it? It just seems like we are behind schedule having 4 characters still left with a Dec 21 finish.

The current rate we're getting characters is close to what I had been predicting ever since March gave us the date for the ARMS character.

Expect a new character about every three months, or one for each season if you want to look at it that way. They should still be able to finish by the deadline they set.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Yeah but a balance schedule would indicate 3 releases in 2020 and 3 releases in 2021.

But to be fair, 2020 did not immediately start off with Figher's Pass 2, so a bit of adjustment in terms of release is hardly surprising.

 

[SharkLord]

Yeesh, things got pretty heated back there. Good thing I was late to the party. One jerk was the spark that set of the flames, eh?
And someone said it'd be better if this was more like RTC? %$#@ no, I'm leaving to get away from the argumentative, competitive environment. The flames are too much for my grill, and the meat'll be overcooked.

Anyways Steve is both awesome and horrifying. I'll probably give more detailed thoughts later.

 

[toonito]

did a little more digging...

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

Banjo's presentation was recorded 2 days after Hero's broadcast (7/30/19 so 8/1?) and released on 9/4

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – Mr. Sakurai Presents "Byleth"

Join Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Director Masahiro Sakurai for an in-depth look at the new fighter Byleth in this new video presentation! Subscribe for more N...

www.youtube.com

Terry's recorded a month before his release (10/19->Nov 6th) and Byleth's was 2 months before presentation (11/19 -> 1/16/20)

so Banjo presentation recorded in August and released 9/4/19

Terry recorded around October released 11/6/19

Byleth recorded in November released 1/28/20

Min Min recorded in May released 6/28/20

Steve recorded in August released 10/13/20

from recording a presentation to character release can take 1 or 2 months based on this info

Min Min and Steve presentations were filmed about 3 months apart so FP8's presentation could be recorded late this year for a reveal & release in Jan or Feb based on this schedule

 

[Nemuresu]

Well, I could upgrade my predictions now:
*Dante (MonHun armours would come with him)
*Sora/Neku (Geno and Chocobo)
*Ryu Hayabusa (Lloyd here)
*Doomguy/Chief
I suppose guessing the position of all remaining mii fighters might not be useful at all, but still.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

In fact

after much thought I’m feeling Ahri specifically uh... phrasing?

Extremely popular, can easily censor her outfit (just put a black void under her skirt or give her shorts), a Star Guardian alt at the very least (I COULD see K/DA if they don’t include the song or make it instrumental only idk)

and YMMV rambling from this point onward
I think Glitch Theory, at least for borrowed animations/properties if not full base may have some precedent. I definitely think Min Min borrowed some animations from Bayonetta despite using CF as a base, and Sakurai compared Steve’s Flint move to PK Fire, thus I guess that might explain Ness’s eyes disappearing. I THINK PK Fire might have triggered that if so

and the Daisy glitch? Starting to think that could be related to Ahri somehow

 

[Sari]

These are the remaining costumes:

Chocobo hat
Geno outfit
Lloyd outfit
Hunter outfit
Rathalos outfit

Gil and his series was easily the least popular of the remaining costumes, so I guess people can relax a little while longer. Still, today gave me even more of a reason to expect these costumes to return in the future.

Yeah I'm really starting to doubt the chances of these characters. Maybe they could make an exception somewhere, but at this rate I doubt both Geno AND Lloyd will get in. At least one of them is definitely getting the axe.

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Sakurai: "Minecraft music is too relaxing for Smash"

Also Smash:

Also the Strawberry Flower Pikmin songs in Brawl, Calling to the Night, Mother 3's Love Song, Magicant from Smash 4 (the Ultimate version sounds like a battle theme doe) do i have to go on?

 

[blackghost]

So that leaves Geno and Lara. Geno is the last major request character and Lara Croft is big ****, yada yada. They both have issues too mind you.

Lara doesn't appeal to Japanese audiences and her firearms might make Nintendo turn her down. Might also be just too violent for Smash.

wait we are still doing firearms arguments??? thats like a 2015 argument.
lara is popular in japan her game sold 21k as a VR game and placed number 2 in sales. that was 2016.
rise of the tomb raider 2018 did another 23 k on outdated charts.
'tomb raider sold more on PS4 than xbox and PlayStation actually has a japanease presence xobox doesnt.

as for 2b iwill doubt unless we see a quote otherwise that a dev wont allow minor modifications to a character's model to get into smash. Hideki Kamiya allowed Bayonetta to get changes to get into smash and he's the most headstrong and stubborn dev I know of. He literally canceled a game for capcom because they tried to force him to do something. He deliberately put glasses on every character in Bayonetta 1 because the publisher dragged thier feet on allowing Bayonetta's design to include glasses.

 

[UberPyro64]

Honestly, the one character I feel is almost a lock at this point is Ryu Hayabusa. With the Vergeben stuff and other insiders hearing about him in the last year or so, he seems inevitable at this point. The only question now is, is he the next Fighter, or futher down the line?

 

[RileyXY1]

Honestly, the one character I feel is almost a lock at this point is Ryu Hayabusa. With the Vergeben stuff and other insiders hearing about him in the last year or so, he seems inevitable at this point. The only question now is, is he the next Fighter, or futher down the line?

There are still other Koei Tecmo reps to choose from.

 

[UberPyro64]

There are still other Koei Tecmo reps to choose from.

Sure, but the insiders have heard Hayabusa specifically, and he's their biggest character. It's hard to imagine it being anyone but him.

Plus, he is pretty much the last big NES icon left.

 

[RileyXY1]

Sure, but the insiders have heard Hayabusa specifically, and he's their biggest character. It's hard to imagine it being anyone but him.

Plus, he is pretty much the last big NES icon left.

It could also be for a Mii Fighter costume or a Spirit Event.

 

[N3ON]

There are still other Koei Tecmo reps to choose from.

I have nothing against you, Ryza fans.

I just don't share your optimism.