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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Michael the Spikester

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Nintendo Fans: We want the announcement of the next Smash fighter NOW!
Nintendo: Nah, here's more Animal Crossing instead. While we're at it also Pokemon next week despite the fact nothing regarding it until November. You'll have to wait in two weeks.
 
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True Blue Warrior

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You say that like Ninendo picks the order with any sort of rhyme or reason. lol
So it’s just a coincidence that the first 3 character in FP1 were Joker, Hero and BK and the last one was Byleth and that it easily could have been reverse? No, there is a clear reason for this.
 
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SpectreJordan

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You know tho

if we do get more DLC (aka the last four WoL slots after Pass 2) filled. I have a feeling it’ll be individual DLC. why make just FOUR fighters into a pass? Should be 5 minimum, and PP being the only individual so far bothers me for reasons I can’t explain

they’ll probably be from existing series, or if from a new one, they might come with music only, no stage. I think that’d be a win for all

I need to get back to streaming Trails sometime

but yeah I’d take Estelle or Rean or Adol over Geno any day imo
I don’t think we’ll see a new series get in without a stage. Sakurai seems pretty serious about that. The only character without a stage from their series is ROB & that’s because he doesn’t have any optiobs

If you're jealous, just think of how almost all of it is just adding what are normally base game features back into the game, and that the base game of Animal Crossing: New Horizons was actually pretty bare. That should help.


You say that like Ninendo picks the order with any sort of rhyme or reason. lol
I agree. If Nintendo wanted to start out FP1 with the “most exciting” option then they would’ve bumped Banjo to that spot.

I don’t really get the pessimism. This is a game that continuously keeps pleasing the fans. The fans want both first & third parties, so we’ll be seeing a mix of that.
 
D

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But what first party characters do you think Nintendo would actually add as DLC?

All I can think of is Rex and a Pokemon.
Hard to answer. One part of me wants to give a list of what I'd want added for first party characters (more Zelda) and the other part of me would say they'd just go through their catalogue and see what games are coming and choose promotional picks (Pokemon for the SwSh Crown Tundra release, another Mario character for Super Mario 3D + Bowser's Fury release).

There's plenty they could do for Nintendo 1st party additions in general that we're either not considering or flat out ignoring because people are against 'generic Mario enemy' being added (like adding Kamek even though he probably could make a cool addition). I mean, if they wanted to, they could easily just make the rest of the pass first party since there's a lot they could still add:
Mario - Kamek, King Boo, Fawful, E. Gadd, Paper Mario (or an antagonist from a Paper Mario series)
Zelda - Any of the Hyrule Warriors, Adult Midna, Skull Kid, Impa, A different Ganon, Toon Zelda
Pokemon - Any of the starters from Gen 8, Toxicity, or one of the other popular additions from the recent gen
Xenoblade - Rex/Pyra, Elma
Kirby - Bandana Dee, That Mouse guy (forget his name lol)
Kid Icarus - Medusa, Hades
Metroid - Sylux

That's just off the top of my head. There's probably plenty I'm missing that could be made into unique characters that would have 'minimal' blow back (because no matter who they pick or what they do, they're going to have some people complaining).
 
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PacificFun

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But you main Daisy...

b
?

A bit disingenuous to include an echo fighter instead of Simon.

As is including Zero Suit for Brawl when it was still just part of regular Samus' moveset.
Why not? Zero Suit Samus and Daisy are newcomers. Echo/extension or not, they're new characters. I feel like it would be more disingenuous to not include them.
 
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SharkLord

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Hard to answer. One part of me wants to give a list of what I'd want added for first party characters (more Zelda) and the other part of me would say they'd just go through their catalogue and see what games are coming and choose promotional picks (Pokemon for the SwSh Crown Tundra release, another Mario character for Super Mario 3D + Bowser's Fury release).

There's plenty they could do for Nintendo 1st party additions in general that we're either not considering or flat out ignoring because people are against 'generic Mario enemy' being added (like adding Kamek even though he probably could make a cool addition). I mean, if they wanted to, they could easily just make the rest of the pass first gen since there's a lot they could still add:
Mario - Kamek, King Boo, Fawful, E. Gadd, Paper Mario (or an antagonist from a Paper Mario series)
Zelda - Any of the Hyrule Warriors, Adult Midna, Skull Kid, Impa, A different Ganon, Toon Zelda
Pokemon - Any of the starters from Gen 8, Toxicity, or one of the other popular additions from the recent gen
Xenoblade - Rex/Pyra, Elma
Kirby - Bandana Dee, That Mouse guy (forget his name lol)
Kid Icarus - Medusa, Hades
Metroid - Sylux

That's just off the top of my head. There's probably plenty I'm missing that could be made into unique characters that would have 'minimal' blow back (because no matter who they pick or what they do, they're going to have some people complaining).
Daroach. His name is Daroach. In terms of Kirby, you could also make a case for Dark Matter, Galacta Knight, Magolor, and Adeleine, plus possibly Marx if he can be more than a boss fight.
 

Strife

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I am not a Geno fan, but I think he is the most likely. But then again I don’t think anyone seems like a shoe-in. I’d give him maybe a 33% chance. Travis might be more likely in my books in light of recent events.
The trend right now is first party characters with a recent game released. My picks are Astral Chain, Pokemon SWSH & Paper Mario
 

osby

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Nintendo Fans: We want the announcement of the next Smash fighter NOW!
Nintendo: Nah, here's more Animal Crossing instead. While we're at it also Pokemon next week despite the fact nothing regarding it until November. You'll have to wait in two weeks.
Do you have to make this exact same post literally everytime we get Nintendo news?
 

True Blue Warrior

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The trend right now is first party characters with a recent game released. My picks are Astral Chain, Pokemon SWSH & Paper Mario
There is no trend with first-party newcomer DLC. :ultcorrin: and :ultbyleth: was decided on before their games were released world-wide for the sake of having a new character from an upcoming game but :ultpiranha: Was a simple bonus character and :ultminmin was decided on at least 2 years after ARMS already released. Also, Astral Chain and Sword & Shield are out (at least Paper Mario doesn’t solely rely on the idea of recency in terms of game content as he has an established legacy of games since 2000, though things still don’t look good for him). Unless your picks are more about want than expectation, in which case disregard this last part.
 
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Rie Sonomura

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Hard to answer. One part of me wants to give a list of what I'd want added for first party characters (more Zelda) and the other part of me would say they'd just go through their catalogue and see what games are coming and choose promotional picks (Pokemon for the SwSh Crown Tundra release, another Mario character for Super Mario 3D + Bowser's Fury release).

There's plenty they could do for Nintendo 1st party additions in general that we're either not considering or flat out ignoring because people are against 'generic Mario enemy' being added (like adding Kamek even though he probably could make a cool addition). I mean, if they wanted to, they could easily just make the rest of the pass first gen since there's a lot they could still add:
Mario - Kamek, King Boo, Fawful, E. Gadd, Paper Mario (or an antagonist from a Paper Mario series)
Zelda - Any of the Hyrule Warriors, Adult Midna, Skull Kid, Impa, A different Ganon, Toon Zelda
Pokemon - Any of the starters from Gen 8, Toxicity, or one of the other popular additions from the recent gen
Xenoblade - Rex/Pyra, Elma
Kirby - Bandana Dee, That Mouse guy (forget his name lol)
Kid Icarus - Medusa, Hades
Metroid - Sylux

That's just off the top of my head. There's probably plenty I'm missing that could be made into unique characters that would have 'minimal' blow back (because no matter who they pick or what they do, they're going to have some people complaining).
If I may suggest a few more, some that are slept on:

xenoblade: Melia (has a lot of focus in the new DE-exclusive epilogue Future Connected) or Fiora (appeared in Project X Zone 2 and Xenoblade 2)
Kirby: Adeline (Star Allies helps her popularity I’d think)
F-Zero (REAL SLEEPER PICK HERE cause nobody expects this): Black Shadow, Deathborn
Splatoon: Octoling (and no they don’t HAVE to be an echo)
Punch Out: LITERALLY ANYONE. nobody expects this either, though a new Punch Out rep that isn’t an echo would be WAY less likely than even a new F-Zero character imo and that’s saying something
 

TwiceEXE

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I mean... why are we discounting this week already? As far as I know, the AC updates were advertised alongside other Nintendo releases.

I don't see how one of these would prevent a Sakurai Presents.
It's TGS this week. Nintendo typically doesn't show stuff off while other things are being shown off. Less eyes/hype on the Nintendo product if it's being overshadowed.
 

True Blue Warrior

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Honestly, all the first-party characters that could be in for the sake of promotion have already been a DLC character or disconfirmed via Spirit Events for this pass so if there are going to be more, spirits and AT from the base game will be revisited and they will get in for other reasons besides promotion.

Also I have no problem with AC news.
 
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SharkLord

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If I may suggest a few more, some that are slept on:

xenoblade: Melia (has a lot of focus in the new DE-exclusive epilogue Future Connected) or Fiora (appeared in Project X Zone 2 and Xenoblade 2)
Kirby: Adeline (Star Allies helps her popularity I’d think)
F-Zero (REAL SLEEPER PICK HERE cause nobody expects this): Black Shadow, Deathborn
Splatoon: Octoling (and no they don’t HAVE to be an echo)
Punch Out: LITERALLY ANYONE. nobody expects this either, though a new Punch Out rep that isn’t an echo would be WAY less likely than even a new F-Zero character imo and that’s saying something
I have heavy doubts on more XC1 content. It's by far the best-represented game in the series and Shulk already advertises XC1 enough as it is. At best, I'm expecting a Spirit Event.
On the point about Adeleine, that kinda goes for literally everyone in Star Allies.
 

SKX31

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Honestly, all the first-party characters that could be in for the sake of promotion have already been a DLC character or disconfirmed via Spirit Events for this pass so if there are going to be more, spirits and AT from the base game will be revisited and they will get in for other reasons besides promotion.
If I may be so blunt: Aside from "This comment has the risk of aging really poorly" I can think of a couple first party promotional opportunities, such as:

  • The (slim, but still theoretically possible) Pokemon that's DLC in order to promote Pokemon Unite.
  • One of the Champions for AoC
  • Gooigi (if tied with additional LM3 DLC or something)

Etc. That well is not dried up yet.
 
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extremeturkey

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I remember many people were expecting a hard-hitting third party to make a grand conclusion for this first fighter's pass. Many were betting on Dante, and the lights were pointing to Dante.

And then, boom
that was soooo dumb. I was baffled about why out of nowhere suddenly half the people on nerd forums were so certain dante would be next. And now basically nobody talks about him. How did that even happen? It shows how fickle speculative trends are.
 

CureParfait

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that was soooo dumb. I was baffled about why out of nowhere suddenly half the people on nerd forums were so certain dante would be next. And now basically nobody talks about him. How did that even happen? It shows how fickle speculative trends are.
In a way this gives me a bad feeling Travis will end up being similar to Dante in those regards, if he isn't in this Fighter's Pass.
 
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SharkLord

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I swear every time this thread talks about Geno, the world gets worse.

Anyway, I like Falcom, I like Estelle. I hope Estelle is a character in Fighter Pass 2.
Speaking of Falcom, I'm beginning to look into Adol's chances a little more. One of the oldest and most distinguished JRPGs, one of the first ARPGs that are still going, over thirty years of history... And at the same time, it's a cult classic in both Smash and general gaming. That sort of iconic-but-niche situation intrigues me, and I want to know more.
 

Jomosensual

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Yakuza being an Xbox launch title feels like a solid deal or Kiryus chances. Idk if there will be a switch release or not but feels like there's some more reasoning as to why we might see it repped in Smash
 

cashregister9

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Speaking of Falcom, I'm beginning to look into Adol's chances a little more. One of the oldest and most distinguished JRPGs, one of the first ARPGs that are still going, over thirty years of history... And at the same time, it's a cult classic in both Smash and general gaming. That sort of iconic-but-niche situation intrigues me, and I want to know more.
There is also the Legend Of Heroes series, One of the Oldest JRPG's of all time Older than Ys and Older than Dragon Quest, It has 14 games and is still getting new games at a frequent pace and generally gets higher reviews than most Ys games but that is just conjecture, I think Trails in the Sky is one of if not the greatest JRPG of all time so I am totally biased. When it comes to Falcom I think Estelle the protagonist of that game is possible so is Rean the protagonist of the most popular game in that franchise Cold Steel.
 
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SNEKeater

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Speaking of Falcom, I'm beginning to look into Adol's chances a little more. One of the oldest and most distinguished JRPGs, one of the first ARPGs that are still going, over thirty years of history... And at the same time, it's a cult classic in both Smash and general gaming. That sort of iconic-but-niche situation intrigues me, and I want to know more.
Yeah. In the context of Smash, Adol or Estelle are dark horse picks but these two (or any Falcom rep) would surprise me and not at the same time, even if that sounds strange.

It would surprise me because Falcom isn't very discussed in speculation, also, they're not incredibly popular in general. But it also wouldn't surprise me that much because, as you said, they definitely have the legacy and the quality to get some kind of representation in Smash, just like SNK.
 
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MisterMike

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No, I understand the 'why'. I'm asking 'why does it matter.
Well, it could potentially help us narrow down who the next DLC fighter is. I dunno about you but I consider that kind of knowledge valuable. Not groundbreaking or definitive, mind, but valuable all the same.

People have thrown around the "OH! BASE GAME GLITCHES MEAN THAT A CHARACTER'S BEING WORKED ON!" since the game comes out, but actual legitimate, hard evidence and proof has never been put forward for the case aside from "HOLY CRAP GUYS X HAS A GLITCH AND THIS CHARACTER COULD HAVE BEEN USED AS A BASE!"
What do you mean there's been no hard evidence? I already listed the hard evidence in my previous post. I pointed out how Little Mac was based on Captain Falcon, Bayonetta was based on Zero Suit Samus, and Ridley was based on Charizard. I wasn't making **** up when I said that, I wasn't being all conspiratorial like "WELL THEY LOOK SORT OF SIMILAR SO THEY COULD'VE BEEN USED AS A BASE!!1", that's actually the case.
  • For Little Mac, allow me to quote SmashWiki:
  • "Interestingly, Little Mac shares a few animations with Captain Falcon. This includes some of his poses when knocked back with a weak attack, swing animations for battering items such as a Beam Sword or a Home Run Bat, and animations while buried or stunned. This has led many to believe that Captain Falcon's model was used as a base for creating Little Mac's model."
  • For Bayonetta, look here.
  • For Ridley, again, allow me to quote SmashWiki:
  • "Strangely, Ridley has code for gliding, despite the mechanic not returning from Brawl, and Ridley himself not being playable or cloned from a playable character in Brawl."
  • "Upon further inspection, the code is identical to Charizard's, which has been carried over since Brawl, suggesting that Charizard was used as a template for some aspects of Ridley's creation."
Explain to me how this isn't hard enough evidence that support this hypothesis?

I wrote my opinon about why MH is likely in this post.
I dunno, this just seems to be reiterating the whole relevancy argument yet again, which I'm still not convinced is enough to argue a character is more likely. Also, I'm not keen on your position that Monster Hunter has only now become super mega global popular and thus more likely to join Smash. And as I've mentioned earlier, this isn't the first time Monster Hunter has gotten their own dedicated Directs. I really don't think this is as big of a deal as people are making it out to be.

I'm just going to pick at this point.

Firstly, do we know for certain that Mii Swordfighter and Duck Hunt were absolutely used for Hero and Banjo? It is a good guess to make, but to my knowledge we don't have anything like Piranha Plant or Min Min where we found the leftover data of the characters used to build them (Bowser Jr. and Captain Falcon respectively) in their files. So the assumption that those two glitches characters have to be connected to the newcomers may be based entirely on speculation and not on absolute fact. Adding to this, Captain Falcon at least to my memory had no majorly reported glitches before Min Min's addition, so it's not even a surefire way to guess which character is coming.

On top of that, as said before, there's been a number of glitches in Ultimate that haven't led to anything or at least haven't conclusively been connected to the DLC newcomers. One glitch I can recall is one from 3.0.0 where Samus had a visual glitch involving her Grapple Beam if it was used in the air, none of the FP1 newcomers had Z-airs, especially within the timeframe that the glitch popped up as they would've been working on Hero, Banjo, and Terry at the time based on Sakurai's team working in threes, so it potentially meant nothing and no character came from it.

Ultimately, it's just not a strong means to prove why a character is coming. There's a number of glitches that haven't led to a newcomer, there's no guarantee that a glitch will point to the exact newcomer we think it will, and there's no guarantee that the character being used to build the newcomer will even have a glitch. It's just not a reliable means to guess, and it can easily mean nothing with all the variables in play.
Fair enough. Again, I don't believe this kind of theory is air tight or anything, but I do believe that there's enough here to worth looking into at the very least.

So? How does that affect Geno's chances one way or the other?
Well, if a company is so goddamn anal about their franchises that they don't even want them near the other third-party content, then at the very least that would indicate that we're in for another SquareEnix character this pass which, while it's not a guarentee that that character would be Geno, the possibility's still there.

That's actually worse because it implies a greater degree of insider separation than I thought. The further away from the prime source you get, the more insider info becomes a game of deception telephone, which increases the chances of leakbait.
Which is par for the course for leakers. I mean, it's why these people tend to form networks and sit on information they've heard before going all in and making it public. Just because you hear something from one source doesn't mean it's confirmed legit, and it may take several months to a year of corroborating your information with others you trust before you can definitively verify the information you're given.

That said, from what I've heard leakbait doesn't tend to really be used much, if at all. I think the last time it was used for Smash was the whole "7 Squares Leak" that had other SquareEnix character names floating around in order to hide Hero and trip up leakers.

Oh. Well, it still wouldn't make much sense for all of those names save Mallow and Smithy to be costumes anyways, especially considering his other leaks have been entirely uniform with regards to what they're for.

Isn't this false and one of the developers said they were afraid of a takedown while a discord leak or whatever specifically said because someone in it was getting into Ultimate?
As far as I know, that's totally false. All that's known for certain is that they mysteriously took the mod down one day, and according to one of the devs it had nothing to do with Nintendo directly threatening them with legal action, but rather they took it down based on the recommendations they got from one Ryan Morrison, a video game attourney.

Because one person is clearly lying in that case, and lying about the former makes no sense because there's nothing stopping someone from revealing they signed an NDA if that indeed happened, leading me to believe the much more likely possibility of the other developer messing with Geno/Waluigi fans.
  • Spend years working on a mod for Brawl pro bono.
  • Include Geno and Waluigi as characters.
  • Wait a few years.
  • Take the mod down without directly stating why to own the Genobros and Waluigibros.
Yeah I agree, that sounds much more likely.
 
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