Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Hydreigonfan01]

If a new XC game comes out before the next Smash game and Rex isn't the protagonist, I wouldn't get my hopes up.

If XC continues to follow the same path as Pokémon and FE, Rex's best chance at that point would probably be an Echo like Chrom. That by itself doesn't seem very likely.

Rex is an echo fighter of Joker because he has access to a hookshot as a tether recovery. He can summon Mythra to replace Arsene as his comeback mechanic./s

 

[N3ON]

Cool. Good to know Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is actually Mario Kart 9.

He's wrong when he says something that's complete nonsense. Like when he says stance-switching is actually a separate character. Or when a port of a game is actually that game's sequel.

But, as we are proving here, the fanbase will say he's right no matter what idiotic statement he makes.

Well, there is some authority in what the creator says, there is some authority in what the marketing conveys, there is some authority in the consensus of the fanbase (which existed long before the corresponding statements from Sakurai, with Melee's 26), and there is a lot of authority when all three of those things line up.

And then, on the other hand, there is you, saying Sheik wasn't a newcomer until Smash 4. And you have no authority.

So, despite your singular opinion, the consensus is, when the stance shifts literally everything about the character, from their moveset to their mechanics/properties, to their appearance, and you have the option to play solely as that one form, it's its own character. You disagreeing doesn't change that for anyone but you. That's why Shulk, who is also a stance change character, is not considered six different characters.

So... yeah. It's just you. Enjoy, I guess.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Welp, here's our Smash update. I think we'll see a character presentation after this tournament is over, so we have next week to look forward to.

The #SmashBrosUltimate @NintendoVS Challenge Cup September 2020 tournament is approaching!

Will you secure a win win with Min Min or show off another fighter you’ve been working on? Stretch your way to victory on 9/26 for some big Gold Point prizes!https://t.co/AxN6lVV7IL pic.twitter.com/6KQy3YMGaR

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) September 22, 2020

 

[RetroBro]

Personally, I don't mind discussing cuts, especially since we barely discuss them here anymore. If you can be respectful and acknowledge that other people's opinions are just as important as your own, I say go for it.

That being said, I've seen how this plays out a million times before. You probably won't get very far.

Person 1: "Does anyone want to talk about potential cuts?"
Person 2: "Sure, why not?"
Majority of the thread: "Yeah, no. This thread can't handle discussions involving cuts. Let's change the topic."
Person 1: "I'll be respectful. I just wanted to see what people thought about—"
Majority of the thread: "Doesn't matter. It's off-topic. Go somewhere else. No one wants to discuss this."
*Thread has several irrelevant and/or heated conversations the same day.

I'd love to discuss cuts. The oversaturation of 3rd party characters have gone to people's heads lol

 

[Dinoman96]

I think K. Rool is a different case because unlike Xenoblade or FE, Donkey Kong isn't a series with a rotating cast of main characters.

I think people need to kinda realize how much more vital timing is for game series with rotational cast members than series with static ones.

 

[Strife]

There is no trend with first-party newcomer DLC. and was decided on before their games were released world-wide for the sake of having a new character from an upcoming game but Was a simple bonus character and was decided on at least 2 years after ARMS already released. Also, Astral Chain and Sword & Shield are out (at least Paper Mario doesn’t solely rely on the idea of recency in terms of game content as he has an established legacy of games since 2000, though things still don’t look good for him). Unless your picks are more about want than expectation, in which case disregard this last part.

Where do you get the idea that and were planned before the game was announced? You're just guessing and throwing it around as a factright? In any case and were released so long ago they're irrelevant to my point. The trend is just for and . I think you're talking out of your ass when it comes to but you're right about being planned long ago however that's the point. After getting the DLC they wanted out of the way, Nintendo is going back and adding the first party characters that should have been in the game and I believe that trend is going to continue with the IPs I just named. I don't know what criteria you're using to say Astral Chain and SWSH is out, probably spirit board events(which Paper Mario would fall into as well), which is stupid as hell as proves spirits doesn't matter and shows Spirit Board events don't really matter either.

 

[Cosmic77]

I mean K. Rool was absent from the DK series since DKC3, not counting that 2008 Mario baseball game, and he made it in still

if anything though, X may get a direct sequel, so even if no XC rep happens, Elma at least has a slightly greater chance if the X sequel (which will be a direct one) happens before Smash 6. Assuming SHE’S not Ultimate DLC.

How many DK games has K. Rool been a main antagonist in? How many Metroid games has Ridley been a major character? Are Banjo and Kazooie not the stars of the franchise that's named after them?

Rex isn't any different from a Pokémon or FE character who missed out. Once a new character debuts as the star of the latest XC game, how likely is it for Sakurai to randomly go back to 2017? Unless Rex is still the main character, is a VERY important character in the new XC game, or suddenly recieves demand that could rival Ridley or K. Rool, I can't see a path for him in Smash 6 outside of an Echo.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Welp, here's our Smash update. I think we'll see a character presentation after this tournament is over, so we have next week to look forward to.

The #SmashBrosUltimate @NintendoVS Challenge Cup September 2020 tournament is approaching!

Will you secure a win win with Min Min or show off another fighter you’ve been working on? Stretch your way to victory on 9/26 for some big Gold Point prizes!https://t.co/AxN6lVV7IL pic.twitter.com/6KQy3YMGaR

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) September 22, 2020

They are really pushing min min

its almost like they are trying to make more people buy min min because sells are low

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Where do you get the idea that and were planned before the game was announced? You're just guessing and throwing it around as a factright? In any case and were released so long ago they're irrelevant to my point. The trend is just for and . I think you're talking out of your ass when it comes to but you're right about being planned long ago however that's the point. After getting the DLC they wanted out of the way, Nintendo is going back and adding the first party characters that should have been in the game and I believe that trend is going to continue with the IPs I just named. I don't know what criteria you're using to say Astral Chain and SWSH is out, probably spirit board events(which Paper Mario would fall into as well), which is stupid as hell as proves spirits doesn't matter and shows Spirit Board events don't really matter either.

He said released, not announced. Corrin was confirmed for Smash quite a while before Fates got a worldwide release and Sakurai outright confirmed Byleth was chosen before 3H got released

 

[SharkLord]

Where do you get the idea that and were planned before the game was announced? You're just guessing and throwing it around as a factright? In any case and were released so long ago they're irrelevant to my point. The trend is just for and . I think you're talking out of your ass when it comes to but you're right about being planned long ago however that's the point. After getting the DLC they wanted out of the way, Nintendo is going back and adding the first party characters that should have been in the game and I believe that trend is going to continue with the IPs I just named. I don't know what criteria you're using to say Astral Chain and SWSH is out, probably spirit board events(which Paper Mario would fall into as well), which is stupid as hell as proves spirits doesn't matter and shows Spirit Board events don't really matter either.

Seeing all of these smilies used in such rapid succession and close proximity is giving me an aneurism.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Smash Wii U and Smash 3DS are different games with two separate release dates though. How are they not Smash 4 and 5 respectively?

A. They were developed alongside one another, one just happened to take more time
B. Literally the exact same gameplay and the exact same roster. The only difference is in the modes.

By your logic, Xenoblade Chronicles 2 should actually be Xenoblade Chronicles 3, because Xenoblade on the 3DS a different game with a different release date than the Wii original. Or Mario Kart 8 Deluxe being Mario Kart 9 due to being an enhanced version of Mario Kart 8 and thus, a different game with a different release. Or Mario Maker 2 being Mario Maker 3 because of the original game's 3DS port. I can go on all day, if you want.

The way I see it, Smash 4 is basically like any mainline Pokemon game, with the difference being that the different versions are on different consoles.

 

[N3ON]

Where do you get the idea that and were planned before the game was announced? You're just guessing and throwing it around as a factright? In any case and were released so long ago they're irrelevant to my point. The trend is just for and . I think you're talking out of your ass when it comes to but you're right about being planned long ago however that's the point. After getting the DLC they wanted out of the way, Nintendo is going back and adding the first party characters that should have been in the game and I believe that trend is going to continue with the IPs I just named. I don't know what criteria you're using to say Astral Chain and SWSH is out, probably spirit board events(which Paper Mario would fall into as well), which is stupid as hell as proves spirits doesn't matter and shows Spirit Board events don't really matter either.

You are in for a rude awakening, my friend.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

A. They were developed alongside one another, one just happened to take more time
B. Literally the exact same gameplay and the exact same roster. The only difference is in the modes.
C. By your logic, Xenoblade Chronicles 2 should actually be Xenoblade Chronicles 3, because Xenoblade on the 3DS a different game with a different release date than the Wii original.

The way I see it, Smash 4 is basically like any mainline Pokemon game, with the difference being that the different versions are on different consoles.

I mean, XBX would mean XB2 is XB3 already so it'd be XB4

 

[Rie Sonomura]

How many DK games has K. Rool been a main antagonist in? How many Metroid games has Ridley been a major character? Are Banjo and Kazooie not the stars of the franchise that's named after them?

Rex isn't any different from a Pokémon or FE character who missed out. Once a new character debuts as the star of the latest XC game, how likely is it for Sakurai to randomly go back to 2017? Unless Rex is still the main character, is a VERY important character in the new XC game, or suddenly recieves demand that could rival Ridley or K. Rool, I can't see a path for him in Smash 6 outside of an Echo.

Honestly I don’t think the bolded part will be an issue. The Mii costume reveal had a lot of upset outcry on twitter practically worldwide, and he’s still super popular in fan made polls, he’s close to the #1 spot in a lot of the fan polls I saw

 

[Dinoman96]

One day will people realize that the post release spirit events deconfirm characters from FP2 in the same way base game spirits deconfirmed characters from FP1

 

[SKX31]

Rex is an echo fighter of Joker because he has access to a hookshot as a tether recovery. He can summon Mythra to replace Arsene as his comeback mechanic./s

Please, don't do that! We Cloud mains already have to deal with Joker as our worst match up, and suddenly you're telling me that said worst match up gets an Echo?

Double the paaaaain.

Welp, here's our Smash update. I think we'll see a character presentation after this tournament is over, so we have next week to look forward to.

The #SmashBrosUltimate @NintendoVS Challenge Cup September 2020 tournament is approaching!

Will you secure a win win with Min Min or show off another fighter you’ve been working on? Stretch your way to victory on 9/26 for some big Gold Point prizes!https://t.co/AxN6lVV7IL pic.twitter.com/6KQy3YMGaR

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) September 22, 2020

That tournament's going to be hard to call, but I'm guessing that a Wi-Fi Sonic will on of the favorites take first place (or at least one / a couple of the Top 20 spots, the places that give out prizes). Because if there's any character that gets buffed from online it's him (and a lot of competitive people - including me personally - hate Sonic on Wi-Fi), and Sonic benefits a lot from items (which are on this tournament, set at medium) too since he can just run around and grab everything.

 

[cosmicB]

Well, if a company is so goddamn anal about their franchises that they don't even want them near the other third-party content, then at the very least that would indicate that we're in for another SquareEnix character this pass which, while it's not a guarentee that that character would be Geno, the possibility's still there.

Huh? How does that mean another Square character? If they were truly that anal, I would think they'd just be a massive pain to work with rather than Nintendo keep wanting to come back for more, and if they did come back for more, it would be for an evergreen character that would benefit them outside of Smash rather than one whose relevancy is directly tied to it. And no, Banjo is not comparable here as by all accounts, MS isn't as hard to work with.

That said, from what I've heard leakbait doesn't tend to really be used much, if at all. I think the last time it was used for Smash was the whole "7 Squares Leak" that had other SquareEnix character names floating around in order to hide Hero and trip up leakers.

I've heard differently, but I'm not interested in a source clash right now, so let's leave it at that.

What I do think is fair to say is leakbait reaching the public is extremely rare and people will always be speculating about it more than getting actual confirmation. Like how certain people have been speculating that Ryu Hayabusa was actually leakbait for Byleth. It could be true, it could be false; this likely isn't something we'll ever know. And even ignoring what I've been told when I wrote for a site, I can't imagine leakbait would be gone entirely from something as volatile as the Smash character release cycle, especially with Nintendo growing increasingly impatient over it to the point of nuking entire insider networks.

Oh. Well, it still wouldn't make much sense for all of those names save Mallow and Smithy to be costumes anyways, especially considering his other leaks have been entirely uniform with regards to what they're for.

Like what? Do we have a list of all his leaks, and verification that they did indeed come from him and not someone using his name? Because IIRC, ther's been some identity issues with him. Also, didn't he say Crash was FP5?

• Spend years working on a mod for Brawl pro bono.
• Include Geno and Waluigi as characters.
• Wait a few years.
• Take the mod down without directly stating why to own the Genobros and Waluigibros.

Yeah I agree, that sounds much more likely.

I think you're misinterpreting what I'm saying here, which is fine since I probably wasn't clear enough.

As you said, a developer said there was no takedown notice, just the fear of one. So that's the public statement on it. But the alleged discord leak insinuated they were hit with a takedown afterall. So that begs the question why the person that went public with it didn't say that. Nintendo isn't going to issue an NDA that forbids you from talking about another NDA. It doesn't work like that. In fact, an NDA could be public record in some cases, so it could be easy to verify if someone is lying about getting one or not.

So why the discrepancy between Legacy XP team members? Is the public one lying for the sake of hype, or is the discord one lying to mess with fans of certain characters? It's a weird situation either way.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I mean, XBX would mean XB2 is XB3 already so it'd be XB4

Is XBX canon though?

 

[Strife]

He said released, not announced. Corrin was confirmed for Smash quite a while before Fates got a worldwide release and Sakurai outright confirmed Byleth was chosen before 3H got released

In any case its a complete moot point. Likely all of the characters in the Fighters Pass 2 were chose a long time ago. The same way and were already being planned is the same way I'm saying Astral Chain, Pokemon SWSH and Paper Mario had already been planned. The trend is consistent

 

[N3ON]

Honestly I don’t think the bolded part will be an issue. The Mii costume reveal had a lot of upset outcry on twitter practically worldwide, and he’s still super popular in fan made polls, he’s close to the #1 spot in a lot of the fan polls I saw

It's going to fade when a new Xenoblade comes out.

At least to the point where it's not enough to get him in over a current protagonist.

I do think now is Rex's last chance, and it might be too late already if Sakurai is privy to whatever is next for the Xenoblade series.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Are people really arguing about the Legacy takedown being a hint at a character?

Come on, guys. Ridley getting a makeover literally a month before getting revealed in Smash didn't do it and Ridley being in Smash was a BIG deal (pun intended), so why would any of the LXP additions do the trick two years later?

 

[Wunderwaft]

That tournament's going to be hard to call, but I'm guessing that a Wi-Fi Sonic will on of the favorites take first place (or at least one / a couple of the Top 20 spots, the places that give out prizes). Because if there's any character that gets buffed from online it's him (and a lot of competitive people - including me personally - hate Sonic on Wi-Fi), and Sonic benefits a lot from items (which are on this tournament, set at medium) too since he can just run around and grab everything.

Please. Enough Sonic. I will yield and admit Sonic is the greatest character of all time, just get Sonic away from quickplay and tournaments. I'm tired of seeing him everywhere online.

 

[Strife]

You are in for a rude awakening, my friend.

Do you have any reason you can articulate to actually believe that?

 

[chocolatejr9]

Welp, here's our Smash update. I think we'll see a character presentation after this tournament is over, so we have next week to look forward to.

The #SmashBrosUltimate @NintendoVS Challenge Cup September 2020 tournament is approaching!

Will you secure a win win with Min Min or show off another fighter you’ve been working on? Stretch your way to victory on 9/26 for some big Gold Point prizes!https://t.co/AxN6lVV7IL pic.twitter.com/6KQy3YMGaR

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) September 22, 2020

Is it just me, or is the way they worded that kinda... odd? "Show off another fighter you've been working on"? Someone somewhere is gonna twist that into a tease for the next character, I just know it...

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Is XBX canon though?

Elma's in 2 and Future Connected has a scene that seems to segue into X so yeah

In any case its a complete moot point. Likely all of the characters in the Fighters Pass 2 were chose a long time ago. The same way and were already being planned is the same way I'm saying Astral Chain, Pokemon SWSH and Paper Mario had already been planned. The trend is consistent

You're assuming that I cared about this argument as a whole when all I did was politely correct you on a point you misread

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Elma's in 2 and Future Connected has a scene that seems to segue into X so yeah

Then obviously it's the tenth game because X.

Monolith was really ahead of its time in the Wii U era

 

[SKX31]

Is it just me, or is the way they worded that kinda... odd? "Show off another fighter you've been working on"? Someone somewhere is gonna twist that into a tease for the next character, I just know it...

Gasp

Does this mean that-

That-

"Working On = Working Out = Massive Reach"

He's in Ladies and Gentlemen!

 

[Shroob]

Welp, here's our Smash update. I think we'll see a character presentation after this tournament is over, so we have next week to look forward to.

The #SmashBrosUltimate @NintendoVS Challenge Cup September 2020 tournament is approaching!

Will you secure a win win with Min Min or show off another fighter you’ve been working on? Stretch your way to victory on 9/26 for some big Gold Point prizes!https://t.co/AxN6lVV7IL pic.twitter.com/6KQy3YMGaR

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) September 22, 2020

Dunno when the tournament ends, but it starts on.... Saturday, the same day of the Hyrule Warrior news drop and TGS will be ongoing then as well.


Man this Saturday has a lot of stuff.

 

[N3ON]

Do you have any reason you can articulate to actually believe that?

Because you've set your entire expectations around the past two characters, classifying everything which preceded them in the history of Smash DLC seemingly irrelevant, and have failed to see the situational difference between Min Min/Byleth and, for example, Akira Howard.

Spirit events of the past year were almost certainly decided in tandem with FP2 so as to eliminate overlap, much like base game spirits and FP1, which is why Min Min wouldn't have been in FP1, but was eligible for reevaluation for FP2. Byleth showing that "spirit events don't matter" actually opposes your conceit, considering it's not like there was a 3H event that predated the character. Again, no overlap.

I'm not particularly keen to delve into the discussion further, since I always seem to be restating this opinion, so suffice it to say I'm content to just wait, probably not very long, until we get some third-party which conflicts with your stance.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I think K. Rool is a different case because unlike Xenoblade or FE, Donkey Kong isn't a series with a rotating cast of main characters.

I think people need to kinda realize how much more vital timing is for game series with rotational cast members than series with static ones.

I'd like to amend that to say "how vital Nintendo thinks timing is". Because the notion that people only want to play as the latest character in a series is dumb.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

Does prove that characters from a Japan-exclusive game can make it into Smash? Or is he an isolated case (I forget if Roy is in the same boat, or if his game ended up releasing).

I remember Sakurai said that he would've cut Lucas if he knew Mother 3 was exclusive to Japan, but he has gone back on his statements before. Just curious to see what you guys have in mind.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Does prove that characters from a Japan-exclusive game can make it into Smash? Or is he an isolated case (I forget if Roy is in the same boat, or if his game ended up releasing).

I remember Sakurai said that he would've cut Lucas if he knew Mother 3 was exclusive to Japan, but he has gone back on his statements before. Just curious to see what you guys have in mind.

Sakurai outright said he wouldn't have included Lucas had he known that Mother 3 wouldn't get localized so no. Especially as Marth and Roy were planned to get cut from our versions of Melee

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Does prove that characters from a Japan-exclusive game can make it into Smash? Or is he an isolated case (I forget if Roy is in the same boat, or if his game ended up releasing).

I remember Sakurai said that he would've cut Lucas if he knew Mother 3 was exclusive to Japan, but he has gone back on his statements before. Just curious to see what you guys have in mind.

Isolated cases for both I’d say. Roy’s game was iirc still in development during Melee

otherwise we’d see the likes of Takamaru and Lip and Ayumi playable already, as much as it saddens me to accept this truth

 

[Idon]

Does prove that characters from a Japan-exclusive game can make it into Smash? Or is he an isolated case (I forget if Roy is in the same boat, or if his game ended up releasing).

I remember Sakurai said that he would've cut Lucas if he knew Mother 3 was exclusive to Japan, but he has gone back on his statements before. Just curious to see what you guys have in mind.

Roy's game also has not had an English release as of yet.

That might change in the future if they ever make a remake of that game like they did for Marth (and also Alm/Celica if you're familiar with Fire Emblem characters) but for now, Roy's fanbase is almost purely based off of his Smash appeal.

 

[Sigman]

No, Zero Suit Samus was not a newcomer UNTIL Smash 4. In Brawl, she was part of Samus' moveset. Samus wasn't a newcomer in Brawl, therefor Zero Suit wasn't a newcomer.

And if you're gonna count echoes Daisy as a newcomer, then I guess Ultimate comes in a big fat last place because one of it's 3 is a goddamn alt costume.

Irrelevant because that distinction wasn't made until Ultimate. And means Charizard was a newcomer in two separate games.

Zero Suit Samus is referred to as a “newcomer” in the E3 2006 reveal trailer of Super Smash Bros Brawl

 

[GoodGrief741]

Does prove that characters from a Japan-exclusive game can make it into Smash? Or is he an isolated case (I forget if Roy is in the same boat, or if his game ended up releasing).

I remember Sakurai said that he would've cut Lucas if he knew Mother 3 was exclusive to Japan, but he has gone back on his statements before. Just curious to see what you guys have in mind.

Sadly I think that's still in place, otherwise I think we'd have seen Takamaru get into Smash 4.

It's possible that Sakurai's changed his mind since then, Ultimate didn't have enough newcomers for any niche characters to get even close to priority. But with how DLC works, even if they weren't opposed to including region exclusive characters, I think they would still miss the cut for business reasons.

 

[SharkLord]

Does prove that characters from a Japan-exclusive game can make it into Smash? Or is he an isolated case (I forget if Roy is in the same boat, or if his game ended up releasing).

I remember Sakurai said that he would've cut Lucas if he knew Mother 3 was exclusive to Japan, but he has gone back on his statements before. Just curious to see what you guys have in mind.

I think it means that it's possible, but only under certain conditions. Marth and Roy required the playtesters to convince Sakurai to not cut them out of Melee's localization, Lucas would've been cut had Sakurai have known about the lack of exporting, Ayumi and Takamaru were ditched because of lack of worldwide recognition, etc.
Personally, I think characters that are Japan-centered but not 100% Japan-exclusive, like Reimu and Sakura, have a shot because A: They're more popular with the Japanese gaming audience than some old retro characters, and B: They're not entirely Japan-exclusive since they've had some ports and translations in recent years, but some people disagree and it's been made clear that nobody is budging until Sakurai gives an official word on this specific context.
As a result, it's kinda pointless to argue that specific point because we've already argued about it many times before, with the same result.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

It's worth noting that Roy has appeared in English Fire Emblem titles after his own game.

Fire Emblem Heroes being the most notable. It's why he has an English voice now. He has a dedicated voice actor.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

I just don't want Lucas to get cut in the future but my boy ain't priority!

please release mother 3 so he can be preserved

 

[I.D.]

I doubt a reminder of an NA only tournament that was already announced previously will be our Smash event for the week.