Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[3BitSaurus]

The situation there is kind of murky - Studio MDHR owns the characters and publishing rights it seems, but Microsoft had a hand in funding the IP and has a major say in what should be done with the IP. The creators did seemingly confirm that the Switch port was Microsoft's idea, after all.

I could be wrong, but that's what it looks like.

That's it, pretty much. This is what led to the now-famous "our friends at Microsoft" moment.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Wait. We forgot the most important thing.

What's gonna happen to Todd Howard?

Todd Howard gets put in a Clockwork Orange contraption and gets forced to enforce quality control and remove bugs postlaunch

 

[Deleted member]

Todd Howard will then return to his reptilian world.

 

[SNEKeater]

Very huge thing Bethesda being bought by Microsoft.

So...am I the only one absolutely terrified for the third party characters already in Smash Ultimate?

With Microsoft buying out Bethesda, it feels like we're about to enter an arms race between them and Sony in how many studios they can just buy out. It feels like now that the likes of SEGA, Capcom, Square-Enix, Konami, Bandai Namco, etc are all in danger.

Obviously if Microsoft got one of them, it might not be the end of the world, considering they've been proven to be collaborative with Banjo's inclusion, but like, what if one of them got bought by Sony? That right there feels like a complete RIP to their characters ever appearing in future games.

Well, Sony doesn't have as much money power as Microsoft does. I don't see Microsoft buying one of the big japanese companies. Sony is more likely to buy the likes of Sega, Capcom, and company, and that's still very unlikely. Sony so far has bought smaller studios, the latest being Insomniac Games and that was por around 230 millon, while MS has bought Bethesda for 7,5 billion... Sony's more likely to buy studios such as Housemarque or Bluepoint Games, which are now developing PS5 exclusive games. Maybe Kojima Productions or Platinum Games at best. But I don't expect them to make bigger acquisitions.

I mean, it could happen, but it's not like they will buy all these developers in the next weeks. It could take years and years.

Obviously, Microsoft buying Bethesda doesn't mean every company will be bought by Microsoft or Sony.

 

[Wunderwaft]

So...am I the only one absolutely terrified for the third party characters already in Smash Ultimate?

With Microsoft buying out Bethesda, it feels like we're about to enter an arms race between them and Sony in how many studios they can just buy out. It feels like now that the likes of SEGA, Capcom, Square-Enix, Konami, Bandai Namco, etc are all in danger.

Obviously if Microsoft got one of them, it might not be the end of the world, considering they've been proven to be collaborative with Banjo's inclusion, but like, what if one of them got bought by Sony? That right there feels like a complete RIP to their characters ever appearing in future games.

I doubt that's gonna happen and I doubt Sony will try to challenge Microsoft in a battle of who can spend money the most. This purchase happened because Microsoft is insanely huge and can afford the money to buy out companies. They have over 140 billions of dollars in revenue while sony only has like 70, that's double the amount. An arms race happening between the two will result in Sony's defeat as they cannot compete with Microsoft in this field.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

With this development, my guess on the liklihood of Microsoft's IPs are thus:

1. Minecraft: The biggest of all the IPs here in the most amount of regions.
2. The Elder Scrolls: Skyrim is one of the longest lasting titles I've ever seen, and the only one I know that's lasted longer is WoW, which has expansions to keep it going.
3. Doom: One of the series that defined the FPS genre, but Japan actively dislikes it.
4. Halo: One of the most popular FPS games, but getting Master Chief on the Switch is like getting Mario on the XBox; I'm not sure it'd be allowed.
5. Fallout: Probably not happening this time in light of the Mii Costume. I'd put it under The Elder Scrolls otherwise.

 

[Deleted member]

We live in an interesting timeline, I will say that.

Todd Howard will then return to his reptilian world.

Okay, that joke was awful.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

1. Doom: One of the series that defined the FPS genre, but Japan actively dislikes it.
2. Halo: One of the most popular FPS games, but getting Master Chief on the Switch is like getting Mario on the XBox; I'm not sure it'd be allowed.

Doom isn't exactly a popular franchise in Japan but it isn't actively disliked

Microsoft doesn't care about console exclusivity as much anymore, hell, the Bethesda buyout doesn't even mention anything involving console exclusivity and MS chose to keep Minecraft available on all platforms with crossplay and made the desicion to port Cuphead to Switch, they won't care
EDIT: Also a Halo game was planned for DS

 

[True Blue Warrior]

A lot of people made bets that spirits couldn't be upgraded and we know how that went...

And they were right for the first pass, considering FP1 was finalised before the game was even released and even Piranha Plant had no spirit in the base game. Things were obviously different for the next Fighter Pass as it was finalised long after the base content was decided on, allowing for the possibility of revisiting that content, more similar to how Smash Ultimate revisiting and promoted Smash 4 AT () to playable between 2012 and 2015 (the years when the roster for Smash 4 and Smash Ultimate were respectively decided).

This doesn’t work for Sword and Shield spirits specifically as that Spirit Event was after the roster for Fighter Pass 2 was decided on, which we know to have been at least in Banjo & Kazooie’s ’s presentation. That presentation was recorded a few days after Hero‘s was released in June 30th 2018 and we know thanks to Sakurai’s statement in Terry’s presentation that they are recorded at least 1 month prior (Byleth’s was 2 months prior so a longer time is possible) to release so BK’s was recorded in early August. The Pokemon Spirit Event was in November. If there was going to be a Pokemon newcomer, there was no reason why those spirits couldn’t be saved for later.

Furthermore, Fire Emblem Three Houses didn’t even get a Spirit Event before Byleth was confirmed. If post-release spirits don’t disconfirm, this decision would not make any sense.

 

[CannonStreak]

So, Microsoft now owns Bethesda, huh? Well, others may have said this before, but this may decrease Doomguy's chances of getting into Ultimate, even though, as Cutie Gwen said, Microsoft does not really care about exclusivity anymore much.

 

[Gazorpazorpfield]

Doom: One of the series that defined the FPS genre, but Japan actively dislikes it.

I don't think Japan dislikes DOOM; on the contrary, I've heard it's actually got a cult following there, more so than any other shooter, anyway.

On the topic of the Zenimax buyout, I wouldn't worry too much about exclusivity. Microsoft is going all in on game sales as opposed to consoles sales right now, as Phil Spencer recently said. More likely is that the likes of Elder Scrolls, Fallout and Doom still come out on Playstation, but now MS will profit from each copy sold. If this sounds familiar, it's because it's exactly what they've done with Minecraft - it's a big source of profit for them, but everyone still gets to play it. Until otherwise stated, I would frankly assume that all those IP will still appear on other platforms.

 

[SNEKeater]

I doubt that's gonna happen and I doubt Sony will try to challenge Microsoft in a battle of who can spend money the most. This purchase happened because Microsoft is insanely huge and can afford the money to buy out companies. They have over 140 billions of dollars in revenue while sony only has like 70, that's double the amount. An arms race happening between the two will result in Sony's defeat as they cannot compete with Microsoft in this field.

Yeah. Neither Nintendo or Sony would win against Microsoft in such competition.
Sony should still investing in smaller studios and at the same time, keep growing the ones they already have. Also, still giving their studios creative freedom and money to make the games they want.
And Nintendo... well. They will be fine. Even if we reach a point where all gaming companies are owned by Microsoft, I'm pretty sure they would let Nintendo roam and do whatever they want lmao

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

With this development, my guess on the liklihood of Microsoft's IPs are thus:

1. Minecraft: The biggest of all the IPs here in the most amount of regions.
2. The Elder Scrolls: Skyrim is one of the longest lasting titles I've ever seen, and the only one I know that's lasted longer is WoW, which has expansions to keep it going.
3. Doom: One of the series that defined the FPS genre, but Japan actively dislikes it.
4. Halo: One of the most popular FPS games, but getting Master Chief on the Switch is like getting Mario on the XBox; I'm not sure it'd be allowed.
5. Fallout: Probably not happening this time in light of the Mii Costume. I'd put it under The Elder Scrolls otherwise.

Actually, one thing I didn't consider is that it's unlikely that Nintendo would have known about this acquisition when deciding the second pass's characters (unless it was already in effect for the negotiations, but I doubt it), so it's entirely possible that, for this pass only, it is still possible to get both a Microsoft and a Bethesda character.

 

[Deleted member]

I don't think Japan dislikes DOOM; on the contrary, I've heard it's actually got a cult following there, more so than any other shooter, anyway.

On the topic of the Zenimax buyout, I wouldn't worry too much about exclusivity. Microsoft is going all in on game sales as opposed to consoles sales right now, as Phil Spencer recently said. More likely is that the likes of Elder Scrolls, Fallout and Doom still come out on Playstation, but now MS will profit from each copy sold. If this sounds familiar, it's because it's exactly what they've done with Minecraft - it's a big source of profit for them, but everyone still gets to play it. Until otherwise states, I would frankly assume that all those IP will still appear on other platforms.

I have a question about this thread.

How does everyone know so much about Japan in here?

 

[PeridotGX]

I don't think this changes anything, Bethesda and Microsoft were still separate when the pass was being selected.

For a hypothetical Vol.3 (which I doubt will exist) or Smash 6? This is big.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I have a question about this thread.

How does everyone know so much about Japan in here?

Research, word of mouth, and some of us live there (not me, but some of us).

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I don't think Japan dislikes DOOM; on the contrary, I've heard it's actually got a cult following there, more so than any other shooter, anyway.

On the topic of the Zenimax buyout, I wouldn't worry too much about exclusivity. Microsoft is going all in on game sales as opposed to consoles sales right now, as Phil Spencer recently said. More likely is that the likes of Elder Scrolls, Fallout and Doom still come out on Playstation, but now MS will profit from each copy sold. If this sounds familiar, it's because it's exactly what they've done with Minecraft - it's a big source of profit for them, but everyone still gets to play it. Until otherwise states, I would frankly assume that all those IP will still appear on other platforms.

There's also this to consider

Phil Spencer does not say Bethesda games will now be exclusive to Xbox, but I wonder if they need to be.

$70 on PS4. Or available on Xbox day one as part of Game Pass.

— Tom Phillips (@tomphillipsEG) September 21, 2020

Microsoft is gonna enjoy the **** out of this deal

 

[Wunderwaft]

Let's be real, the true winners of this deal are PC gamers lol
They don't have to bother with Bethesda's ****ty launcher anymore and Microsoft will just keep porting these games to Steam and the Microsoft store.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Let's be real, the true winners of this deal are PC gamers lol
They don't have to bother with Bethesda's ****ty launcher anymore and Microsoft will just keep porting these games to Steam and the Microsoft store.

And spit the Epic Games Store

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

For a hypothetical Vol.3 (which I doubt will exist) or Smash 6? This is big.

I'm not sure how it would affect a base roster. Would it make negotiations easier, and therefore more likely for Nintendo to add Bethesda stuff if they wanted to add Microsoft stuff anyway?

 

[SKX31]

So...am I the only one absolutely terrified for the third party characters already in Smash Ultimate?

With Microsoft buying out Bethesda, it feels like we're about to enter an arms race between them and Sony in how many studios they can just buy out. It feels like now that the likes of SEGA, Capcom, Square-Enix, Konami, Bandai Namco, etc are all in danger.

Obviously if Microsoft got one of them, it might not be the end of the world, considering they've been proven to be collaborative with Banjo's inclusion, but like, what if one of them got bought by Sony? That right there feels like a complete RIP to their characters ever appearing in future games.

There's a reason why slippery slope arguments can be extremely premature.

I don't imagine that Bethesda was cheap (Sidenote: The whole thing cost $7.5 Billion) - this is not like 37 Games buying out SNK for a "measly" $63.5 million. Consider this acquisition for example:

Tencent's acquisition of Leyou will value the company at up to $1.5 billion. Final announcement won't be too far out. Subject to shareholder and regulatory approval

Will enhance Tencent's online games business further with devs such as Digital Extremeshttps://t.co/f0W0dXaNpx pic.twitter.com/uA5LUjuOE8

— Daniel Ahmad (@ZhugeEX) August 30, 2020

And that was for Warframe (which will likely give Tencent its first Spirit in Smash) etc. And incredibly big buyouts can cause problems even for huge companies - that's entirely the reason why AT&T considered selling WB Games (AT&T had $150 Billion in debt after buying Time-Warner). The sale didn't go through - AT&T's going to sell other stuff, but the WB Games studio was evaulated at $4 Billion. Bandai-Namco, SEGA, Capcom etc. are even bigger and thus more difficult to buy out than Leyou - they'd likely be at least Zenimax's price at $7.5 Billion. Or even higher.

Besides that though, some companies would object to console exclusivity (what Sony would require) or aren't that interested in having a parent company over them. SEGA, Capcom and Square-Enix are doing fine right now. SEGA, for example, has a steady source of income in Football Manager, as well as several high profile IPs like Sonic. Then there's the question of organizational ideology: Nintendo will never allow themselves to be bought out because that would be anathema to what Nintendo is.

It does beg the question of whether Zenimax / Bethesda was having it kind of rough, and thus approached Microsoft or something else started all this.

This is a legitimate argument at the core, I don't argue against that - bigger and bigger companies buying out more smaller ones can essentially create an oligarchic / cartel-like situation where few companies have most of the means (and thus harm the industry at large in the long term). We just have to keep in mind that it's not that simple.

 

[Deleted member]

These corporations have been getting very massive as of lately...

That said, I am all for Doom on the Xbox Game Pass. This is an interesting day.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Wait. We forgot the most important thing.

What's gonna happen to Todd Howard?

They already put him in his cage, sorry

 

[SNEKeater]

There's also this to consider

Phil Spencer does not say Bethesda games will now be exclusive to Xbox, but I wonder if they need to be.

$70 on PS4. Or available on Xbox day one as part of Game Pass.

— Tom Phillips (@tomphillipsEG) September 21, 2020

Microsoft is gonna enjoy the **** out of this deal

It isn't surprising. It's just like Minecraft, which was still available everywhere after Microsoft bought Mohjang.
I'm expecting a similar case with Bethesda. Maybe certain or smaller games will end being Xbox/PC exclusives, but I doubt Elder Scrolls, Doom or Fallout will stop appearing on Nintendo/Sony consoles, because those games are really popular and sell pretty much well on any platform.

For example, if MS ended buying EA, do people really think FIFA games would stop releasing on Playstation, with how much they sell? No one would give up that money.

 

[Deleted member]

I don't know whenever to be happy that these Bethesda games are in far better hands, or concerned that these corporations are getting more massive...

 

[Garteam]

Wait. We forgot the most important thing.

What's gonna happen to Todd Howard?

This buyout just works.

Who's laughing now?

 

[Depressed Gengar]

The Doomguy VS Master Chief wars won't be a big thing for a few years at least. It certainly won't be as big as Steve VS Banjo anytime soon, because that war was already building up a lot of steam for a few years before it actually became a war.

 

[MooMew64]

Microsoft buying Bethesda is a pretty huge play on their part. Now the question is, will they be snubbing Sony consoles, or will they have it be like Minecraft and allow them to continue doing their thing? Regardless, Switch will still get things due to Microsoft obviously being on pretty good terms with them ATM.

Also, there you guys go, Vault Boy was your second Microsoft rep.

 

[Deleted member]

This is huge for Microsoft, in my opinion.

And I would say the Bethesda games are in better hands.

 

[StarBot]

Hopefully they aren't as awful as the Steve vs wars.

Knowing how overzealous boomers Doom and Halo fans are, I doubt it

 

[Dinoman96]

Get ready for the Green Space Marine Civil War

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Well Bethesda being bought by MS is certainly one hell of a crazy news story to wake to.

I remember there was a crazy or so rumor a year back that Sony was looking to aquire them, but didn't expect any of the first parties to buy them.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Wait. We forgot the most important thing.

What's gonna happen to Todd Howard?

Realistically he'll still be the big cheese at Bethesda but will also need to answer to Microsoft's demands. Though I can't see it ending pretty when they ask him to NOT release Skyrim on PS5.

 

[Deleted member]

Realistically he'll still be the big cheese at Bethesda but will also need to answer to Microsoft's demands. Though I can't see it ending pretty when they ask him to NOT release Skyrim on PS5.

They will probably allow Skyrim on the PS5. After all, corporations only care about money.

 

[Garteam]

I'm actually going to be an optimist and say that Master Chief vs. Doom Slayer won't be any worse than any other intracompany debate that occurs. Banjo v. Steve only got so bad because both of those characters were longstanding, major players that had serious emotional weight behind them and vastly different implications for what Ultimate's DLC would be like behind their possible inclusions. It took a lot of escalation over a lot of time to have things reach the state they did. I don't see that specific lighting striking twice for Master Chief and Doom Marine.

 

[StarBot]

I'm actually going to be an optimist and say that Master Chief vs. Doom Slayer won't be any worse than other intracompany debate that occurs. Banjo v. Steve only got so bad because both of those characters were longstanding, major players that had serious emotional weight behind them and vastly different implications for what Ultimate's DLC would be like behind their possible inclusions. It took a lot of escalation over a lot of time to have things reach the state they did. I don't see that specific lighting striking twice for Master Chief and Doom Marine.

It's probably because Nintendo fans aren't usually into hardcore FPS, but you are seriously undermining how people are attached to old DOOM and Halo

Especially Halo, where it's fandom is never pleased on whatever 434 dose

 

[Animegamingnerd]

So...am I the only one absolutely terrified for the third party characters already in Smash Ultimate?

With Microsoft buying out Bethesda, it feels like we're about to enter an arms race between them and Sony in how many studios they can just buy out. It feels like now that the likes of SEGA, Capcom, Square-Enix, Konami, Bandai Namco, etc are all in danger.

Obviously if Microsoft got one of them, it might not be the end of the world, considering they've been proven to be collaborative with Banjo's inclusion, but like, what if one of them got bought by Sony? That right there feels like a complete RIP to their characters ever appearing in future games.

I have more fears about then this then just Smash, I already wasn't the biggest fan of companies like MS and THQ Nordic buying like every AA studio under the sun. But now the former is going after AAA publishers and is spending money that makes like 10% of Sony and Nintendo's net worth on just buying one publisher. The implications this is gonna have for the gaming industry are gonna be huge and we will be feeling the affect of this move for years similar to the Disney and Fox merger in the film industry.

 

[7NATOR]

Actually I do got a question about the Bethasda buyout

Does anyone know how long these types of buyouts usually take, and how long it takes for the news to be Public. Depending on when Microsoft was acquiring Bethesda and how long it might take, it's possible other companies, like Nintendo, could have known about this acquisition for longer than we might expect...which could have certain implications

 

[Cutie Gwen]

It's probably because Nintendo fans aren't usually into hardcore FPS, but you are seriously undermining how people are attached to old DOOM and Halo

Especially Halo, where it's fandom is never pleased on whatever 434 dose

I can't speak for Halo as I've only played Reach and 1 so far, but people aren't just attached to old Doom, 2016 may be one of the most praised FPS games of the decade and Eternal's universally beloved outside of one asshole enemy

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Actually I do got a question about the Bethasda buyout

Does anyone know how long these types of buyouts usually take, and how long it takes for the news to be Public. Depending on when Microsoft was acquiring Bethesda and how long it might take, it's possible other companies, like Nintendo, could have known about this acquisition for longer than we might expect...which could have certain implications

Now I don't know how long it usually takes for the gaming, but for the film industry it took about a year for all the courts in the world to approve of the Disney and Fox merger.

But with the gaming industry certain contracts are usual remain for certain games to come to certain platforms. For example Ghostwire Tokyo and Deathloop are timed PS5 exclusives and will likely remain one and Doom Eternal will still come to Switch like The Outer Worlds still came to Switch and PS4 and Hellblade came to Switch after MS bought their respective developers. But for game's in likely pre-production such as Elder Scrolls 6 and the next Doom game, there might not be a PS5 and Switch version of those games due to those contracts possibly not being signed yet to bring those games to those platforms.