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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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TheBeastHimself

No time for tea, uncle, gotta capture the Avatar!
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I think we get Minecraft Steve before we get anything fortnite but I doubt we get either most I think we get is a creeper mii costume
I feel like Steve has a good chance too for pretty similar reasons as Fortnite Jonesy. I can understand where you're coming from, but I really think these huge games can find their way to a character slot based on how much they impacted culture alone.
 

Cosmic77

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I hope so because That’s not what the majority of the western smash Fanbase thinks. what they think is The pass will be all like geno Chief Dante & crash all together. I wanna be surprised not spoiled (but then again I really want a 2nd xenoblade rep in the pass (fiora & Rex are my bets) but still)

and tbh 3/4 of those 3rd parties didn’t even originate on a Nintendo console until at least one of those games got potted
A majority of the characters we're discussing are the same ones we were discussing when Sakurai first announced that there would be DLC for Ultimate almost two years ago.

I doubt this pass will be predictable. That's one thing I feel like I can safely promise you.
 

TheBeastHimself

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Nah I think we all know deep in our hearts how likely they are.

We just opt to ignore it.
Fair enough lol

If they added Jonesy, I can guarantee you he'd be the least popular character in the community because of
  1. "Popular thing bad."
  2. Zoner
  3. Walls
Jonesy could get the most outrage out of any character in Smash history.
 

SharkLord

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I dunno...the two Sakuras' fighting styles are too different from each other to justify an Olimar/Alph situation (which already sucks since Alph should've been Olimar's Echo). If the two both get in at once, then Sakura Amamiya should be an Echo of Sakura Shinguji.
I mean, there's nothing stopping them from puling a Belmont and creating a composite moveset that draws from both Sakuras. Smash has a tendency of drawing from other characters for the sake of a complete moveset, even into FP1, namely Byleth using all four main Relics and their corresponding Lord's animations, and Hero using various spells they can't learn across all four different incarnations.
A majority of the characters we're discussing are the same ones we were discussing when Sakurai first announced that there would be DLC for Ultimate almost two years ago.

I doubt this pass will be predictable. That's one thing I feel like I can safely promise you.
And that's a big reason I keep going with my gut; The brain has habitually failed me, so the gut is the only reliable figure left for me to trust.
 
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SMAASH! Puppy

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You forgot 4. “Not being the character I want”.

Which in all fairness applies to everyone. Even Mario.
There's even a possible 5. Comeback mechanic. The whole idea is to destroy the environment in order to get materials right? We all know how stuff like that gets translated to Super Smash Bros.

Jonesy could get the most outrage out of any character in Smash history.
Smash fans: "Our hatred has ended with Corrin and Byleth. Jonesy is the true evil in this roster."
 

cashregister9

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It'd either be Mii costume or character, but I do think there's a chance for him to be playable:
  • Epic Games loves to collaborate with other companies and do crossovers
  • Fortnite is on the Switch, it even got bundled with the Switch. That's Nintendo trusting that the game alone would be popular enough to sell help sell their console.
  • Fortnite has become one of the most popular games in recent times, at this point everyone has at least heard about it, and it still has hundreds of millions of active players.
This, to me, seems like the perfect recipe for getting invited to Smash. I personally don't like Fortnite, but the game can easily make its way into Smash. It's extremely marketable, and there's no chance Epic Games would reject Nintendo if they asked.
Don't get me wrong a playable Fortnite character would not shock me I actually would be pretty cool with it Something about it though just seems like it doesn't have a great chance at being playable many small mostly negligible things like a lack of music. that chance is still there and higher than a lot of others I just wish I could explain the energy it has.
 
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Hadokeyblade

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A majority of the characters we're discussing are the same ones we were discussing when Sakurai first announced that there would be DLC for Ultimate almost two years ago.

I doubt this pass will be predictable. That's one thing I feel like I can safely promise you.
This is why I've brought up characters like Sakura or Kiryu. They seem like the kinds of characters that would fit into Smash perfectly yet are ones nobody would ever expect to get in.

Heck I don't expect them to get in, I just think it would be a cool what if.
 

MBRedboy31

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Only thing I can see getting in Fortnite’s way is the music.
First, I admit I never touched Fortnite so I’m likely wrong here.
That said, from what I’ve seen all the music is victory style jingles (such as the type used on the “default dance” (lowkey I want a Fortnite rep just for this particular pose)) and the actual game doesn’t have music.
Now I admit there is the “Save the World” mode and there’s likely music there so that’s something...
I really haven’t paid much attention to Fortnite, but, the trailers and advertisements and things have music right? We got a remix of the music from BotW’s reveal trailer (not from the game itself, from the reveal trailer specifically,) so they could consider doing the same for Fortnite if there aren’t legal issues with that and there aren’t good alternatives.
 

SirBillyBob

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As the owner of the Jonesy thread, I'd give Jonesy about a 30% chance of getting in as either a full blown character or a mii costume. I'm not gonna go into crazy detail here, but his biggest problems are being western and lack of notable music. We already know Fortnite's crazy popular in the west, but he's not a complete nobody in Japan either. If I recall correctly, Venus mentioned that Fortnite's popular with the younger demographic, and a recent CoroCoro survey placed it at top of favorite game series in Japan for young kids. As mentioned previously, Epic is also keen on collaborating with other companies (except for Apple lol). So yeah, Jonesy has a decent chance of getting in, it's just language issues and potential lack of music preventing him from having a higher chance. He'd fit in with his home game's artstyle and has potential for a neat moveset.

Oh, and for him being the worst received newcomer? I'll gladly accept, the salt would be glorious.
 
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Cutie Gwen

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“lack of sales” is was caught my attention. It seems perhaps it’s not selling that well?
Is it really that surprising when in 8 months we only know a single character, meaning we're almost halfway through the deadline and only know 1 of 6 characters? In the same time frame for the first pass, we already knew 3 of the 5, Min Min's also not exactly a huge character whereas Joker's from a fan favourite game for the 2010s and because Nintendo doesn't want to do what almost every other company does and announce the characters right off the bat, people may not feel comfortable with spending 30 bucks on just Min Min.
Not entirely true. :ultlucas::ultmarth:

EDIT: Also, I doubt the amount of Japanese characters in a game using characters mostly from a single Japanese company is due to some sort of bias.
I mean, we know Sakurai wanted to remove Marth and Roy from the western versions of Melee and he also said that had he known Mother 3 wouldn't get localized, Lucas wouldn't have gotten in
There was a problem fetching the tweet
When you get stabbed by Sephiroth and are laid to rest in a lake

...wait, what do you mean it was the GIRL that was supposed to get stabbed??
Nah Cloud just got launched by the dolphin in Junon and it didn't come back for him
I would not at all call Joker the 'face' of Atlus.


Persona 5 may be their best selling game, but I'd wager until Persona 5, they were much more known for Shin Megami Tensei and Persona 4. If anything, I'd call Jack Frost, their literal mascot, the "Face" of the company, considering that they slap his face in a ton of their games.
I mean. The fact you said 'until Persona 5' really helps the claim that P5 is the game people think of first when they think of Atlas
 

Arcane Jill

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If we do get Jonesy, at least Fire Emblem won't be the most hated franchise in Smash :4pacman:
I still believe CP7 is likely to be an attention-grabber to sell the pass, given that MinMin, though well recieved, isn't pass pushing material. If they are a low profile pick, then I wouldn't expect many internet breakers in this pass.
One thing for sure, CP7 will be getting backlash due to the wait for them no matter how hype/unhype they are.
 

DrifloonEmpire

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Not entirely true. :ultlucas::ultmarth:

EDIT: Also, I doubt the amount of Japanese characters in a game using characters mostly from a single Japanese company is due to some sort of bias.
Marth was Melee era and a special exception if anything (plus he was a base game character, not one you had to pay extra for). Lucas was a fluke and was only included because Sakurai didn't know Mother 3 wasn't going to be localized. He's said that he wants to avoid another situation like that which has kept Takamaru out.
 

SpectreJordan

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I’d just like to say that I’ve been calling a BOTW character for an additional Nintendo rep alongside Rex for a while lol

It just makes too much sense. Not only is it a way to promote BOTW2 & now Age of Calamity. But it’ll celebrate one of the most beloved Nintendo games of all-time. It’s still sort of the “new kid on the block” but the recognition & love BOTW gets is already up there with some of Nintendo’s other legendary games.

Sure, Link is inspired by BOTW & we have the stage but I feel more representation of that game is completely justified. Just like all of the love OOT has received over the course of Smash’s history.

Ngl, I’m a bit jealous of the attention BOTW gets since I prefer Mario Odyssey. I really enjoyed my time with BOTW, but I think it’s a bit overrated. Mario Odyssey though? Pure bliss.
 
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Shroob

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You'd think he wouldn't have that standard after the positive response to those characters in the West.
I mean, what standard? In Melee, there were currently no plans to bring Fire Emblem over to the states, so at the time, it would have sucked to have c

Jon's been playing us for keeps the moment he started Xplaining them Games.
In the end, he really was the chosen one all along


Untitled.jpg
 

Cutie Gwen

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Marth was Melee era and a special exception if anything (plus he was a base game character, not one you had to pay extra for). Lucas was a fluke and was only included because Sakurai didn't know Mother 3 wasn't going to be localized. He's said that he wants to avoid another situation like that which has kept Takamaru out.
Being Melee era clearly didn't matter as we'd have had Ayumi Tachibana. Lucas was also a base game character yet Sakurai still said he'd have scrapped him had he been able to see the future. Not that this argument matters much when the Japan only characters you're referring to aren't even Japan only to begin with
 

Will

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Yeah, :ultmarth::ultroy::ultlucas: were all just weird anomalies/accidents that they probably won't want to repeat again.
Wasn't Fire Emblem purposefully put in to convince everyone else in the world that they wanna play Fire Emblem?
 
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Cutie Gwen

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Wasn't Fire Emblem purposefully put in to convince everyone else in the world that they wanna play Fire Emblem?
Nope, Sakurai planned on cutting them for the Western release but got convinced by playtesters to keep them in. Marth was added because Marth was a huge request and FE3 is to Japan what Super Metroid is to us. Roy was just a quick clone to pad out the roster who had convinient timing until they ended up delaying FE6 and rewriting Roy's personality
 

3BitSaurus

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I think we all tend to forget how likely and realistic Fortnite Jonesy is.
Honestly? In terms of big western games, I think several other options are more likely. Halo, Minecraft and League of Legends are some of them imho.

The former is a historical franchise that's getting a new entry soon and the latter two are long-term games that are still getting support, spinoffs and are more popular than ever, especially considering they've been around for over a decade.
 
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I will just say that in the later reveals (:ultbylethf: and :ultminmin), nobody expected these characters to be in Smash, but here they are.

I would say it is quite difficult to call a character likely or unlikely, as I feel like these picks are going to be more random. That is pretty exciting, because it isn't the same when the character is leaked.
 
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Shroob

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I will just say that in the later reveals (:ultbylethf: and :ultminmin), nobody expected these characters to be in Smash, but here they are.

I would say it is quite difficult to call a character likely or unlikely, as I feel like these picks are going to be more random. That is pretty exciting, because it isn't the same when the character is leaked.
Eh, speak for yourself, I was calling a 3 Houses rep from MONTHS, lol. Maybe not Byleth per se, but I was in the ballpark.


3 Houses just had that bizarre thing where, they just kept ignoring its Spirits, for months upon months, and after awhile, it got really ****ing suspicious. Sure, not all new Switch releases got Spirit events, like Luigi's Mansion 3 or Yoshi's Crafted World, but I'd argue that aside from a small percentage of people who want King Boo, that those games didn't really have anyone to offer as a newcomer, while 3 Houses absolutely did.

Even Astral Chain and Sword/Shield got their events, albeit Astral Chain's came relatively late, but 3 House's absence kept getting stranger and stranger until... boom.


I actually prefer 3rd party characters personally, but even I got tired of hearing "They won't add a 1st party to a pass that's been all 3rd party soo far/They won't end on a 1st party because it would end on a wimper" as valid reasons to throw out the concept of a 1st party character being added.
 
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Eh, speak for yourself, I was calling a 3 Houses rep from MONTHS, lol. Maybe not Byleth per se, but I was in the ballpark.
What I mean is that everyone was expecting the final character to be Dante or some other character that everyone loves to talk about, but it was Byleth.

I got tired of hearing "They won't add a 1st party to a pass that's been all 3rd party soo far/They won't end on a 1st party because it would end on a wimper" as valid reasons to throw out the concept of a 1st party character being added.
Same. I saw many speculators thinking it would be Dante, but it was Byleth.

I think Byleth was satisfying to me, because hey, I loved Three Houses. It is a great game.
 

Dinoman96

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Honestly Three Houses not getting a spirit event never meant much to me.

Mainly because it took like five months after their releases for both Astral Chain and Ring Fit Adventure to get spirit events.

It still cracks me up that literally the same exact week they deconfirmed AC, they then announced Byleth a few days after lol. Talk about rubbing salt in the wound.
 

SKX31

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It'd either be Mii costume or character, but I do think there's a chance for him to be playable:
  • Epic Games loves to collaborate with other companies and do crossovers
  • Fortnite is on the Switch, it even got bundled with the Switch. That's Nintendo trusting that the game alone would be popular enough to sell help sell their console.
  • Fortnite has become one of the most popular games in recent times, at this point everyone has at least heard about it, and it still has hundreds of millions of active players.
This, to me, seems like the perfect recipe for getting invited to Smash. I personally don't like Fortnite, but the game can easily make its way into Smash. It's extremely marketable, and there's no chance Epic Games would reject Nintendo if they asked.
Fortnite is a contender, albeit it's very difficult to judge how likely it is. Nintendo very likely found no shortage of third parties (big and small, Western and Japanese) who would love to cooperate with Nintendo re: Smash. Like 3BitSaurus 3BitSaurus said, Nintendo could go for another huge Western third party just as easily. I'm also of the opinion that Chief / Steve / LoL are a bit more likely since they have a clearer case, especially with the music.

Still though, Jonesy does have a legitimate shot: Fortnite's heavily based around twitchy reaction times (no, not just a pun) and its arcade-y fast-paced construction mechanic has helped it stand out compared to its BR competitors like PUBG and Apex. That could easily translate to a Smash moveset. Also, Fortnite can lay a claim to helping establish the BR as a genre - PUBG has a stronger claim here, but Fortnite's contributions shouldn't be ignored either. And the BR genre's not going to wither and die any time soon, Fall Guys and Mario 35 prove that.

One could argue that Fortnite's case is strenghened because Knives Out (mobile BR) is mega-popular in Japan, and thus Sakurai and Japan at large is familiar with the BR genre. Combined with Fortnite's propensity for crossovers meaning that a lot of Japanese have seen their collabs with Marvel, Star Wars etc. Although one could likewise argue that Fortnite's case is weakened because Knives Out overshadowed it. And to my very limited knowledge, Knives Out hasn't been brought up in the Japanese speculation scene at all. Nor Fortnite - meaning that if Fortnite was indeed chosen it would likely catch a very large number of Japanese by surprise.

That does bring up another question: Venus of the Desert Bloom, Ayumi Tachibana, if I may ask, was the whole "Palpatine's EP 9 opening speech in Fortnite's Star Wars event" widely covered in Japanese media and forums? I know that Star Wars has been really popular there, so that's why I'm asking.
 
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Professor Pumpkaboo

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The awkward part of this Sakura conversation is that the One I'm thinking of and the One everyone else is thinking of are two completely different characters.
View attachment 285051
This one is a character Sega actually wants to push going forward. lol
Im thinking about DR Sakura myself
Sakura_Infobox_Anime.png
 

Dutch Raikuna

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Even I need to throw my hat in the ring every once in a while.

I'm still betting for a 3/3 split for the Fighter's Pass.

And thinking about it, Famicom Detective Club with it's remakes has got me thinking that Ayumi Tachibana could be a dark horse pick but maybe 4th or 5th, I can see the game coming west, just Nintendo is unsure how to market it for now.

On an off note, I think the main reason why the game was made was to shut that investor up who kept asking about it in the quarterly reports.
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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I always thought the "December 31 2021" deadline was just playing safe because it was added in translated Directs; the original Japanese only mentions the year.

With that in mind, I don't think they really planned for December 2021 to be when it ends, so even with COVID, they probably had a lot of wiggle room since the original deadline was never specific beyond the year.

So a 2/4 split with the Pass ending around... let's say October could actually still sound plausible, imo.
 
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