Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna chime in and say I heavily disagree with the sudden insistance that Reimu, Ryza, Sakura, etc are suddenly super likely. People are comparing them to Dragon Quest and Persona, which is completely ridiculous. These two franchises, even if they are juggernauts in Japan, they were still relatively well known about in the West. Dragon Quest and Persona have been getting games in the west for years, and the latter has been pushed by Nintendo since 2014 when they became buddy buddy with Square Enix again. Touhou has fans in the west but beyond avid internet users barely anyone knows about it (I expect a Mii Costume if anything. If world-renown also one-man franchise Sans was relegated to one, Reimu doesn't fare better at all). Plus Nintendo has never pushed any Touhou games in their directs. Sakura Wars is still a literal who in the west (Dragon Quest had more Worldwide renown in the 2000s than Sakura Wars has now), and 90% of it hasn't been localized. Ryza, while faring better than the other two, still has the regional hurdle. Ryza and her sequel were both featured in directs... in Japan only (the September direct last year gave us a Doom 64 segment in its place). If Nintendo wasn't confident in showing it internationally, why would it be Hero-esque DLC? Estelle definitely fares better than the rest, while not being acticely pushed there still was Trails of Cold Steel III on the Switch news page.

I know we did get unexpected less popular picks like Terry last pass, but I still think comparing these extremely niche characters to Hero and Joker (even if the latter should've been Jack Frost instead in my opinion) is completely ludicrous...

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Yeah, healing can be interesting, but it has to be done very specifically in a fighting game. Otherwise we get Elana from Street Fighter IV (and even she only did it with a super) or Dark Phoenix (which is basically another health bar + a comeback mechanic). The only fighting game character I've heard of that has healing as a notable trait also has self damage (don't remember her name but she's a Killer Instinct character), which creates this sort of balancing act.

You might be able to get away with tying it to a meter that also gives you equally powerful options so healing isn't always the best one, but...I dunno.

Mira?

Yeah, that's a really cool take on it.

All her good moves take away from her health bar and her healing move is a command grab that deals a whopping 0 damage, so the healing isn't free either

 

[SirBillyBob]

Kinda funny how it's supposed to be Mario's great big 35th anniversary and not even a week after the Mario direct did we get the AoC announcement.

 

[Shroob]

Kinda funny how it's supposed to be Mario's great big 35th anniversary and not even a week after the Mario direct did we get the AoC announcement.

To be fair, the Direct was probably supposed to come out back in April.


As of right now, it honestly feels like they're just pushing out all the stuff they've had on the backburner for months to just get it out there.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Sakura Wars is still a literal who in the west...

Whatever Sakura's last name was, it is now Wars.


Also, it's pretty funny that people are arguing that lack of popularity in the west would keep a character out of the game when the argument was exactly the opposite just a few months ago. I believe it was called "Japan bias" or something stupid like that.

 

[SharkLord]

Gonna chime in and say I heavily disagree with the sudden insistance that Reimu, Ryza, Sakura, etc are suddenly super likely. People are comparing them to Dragon Quest and Persona, which is completely ridiculous. These two franchises, even if they are juggernauts in Japan, they were still relatively well known about in the West. Dragon Quest and Persona have been getting games in the west for years, and the latter has been pushed by Nintendo since 2014 when they became buddy buddy with Square Enix. Touhou has fans in the west but beyond avid internet users barely anyone knows about it (I expect a Mii Costume if anything. If world-renown also one-man franchise Sans was relegated to one, Reimu doesn't fare better at all). Plus Nintendo has never pushed any Touhou games in their directs. Sakura Wars is still a literal who in the west (Dragon Quest had more Workdwide renown in the 2000s than Sakura Wars has now), and 90% of it hasn't been localized. Ryza, while faring better than the other two, still has the regional hurdle. Ryza and her sequel were both featured in directs... in Japan only (the September direct last year gave us a Doom 64 segment in its place). If Nintendo wasn't confident in showing it internationally, why would it be Hero-esque DLC? Estelle definitely fares better than the rest, while not being acticely pushed there still was Trails of Cold Steel III on the Switch news page.

I know we did get unexpected less popular picks like Terry last pass, but I still think comparing these extremely niche characters to Hero and Joker (even if the latter should've been Jack Frost instead in my opinion) is completely ludicrous...

I mean, the original question was asking about gut predictions. Gut predictions are, by definition, backed up by your gut and not your brain (Not entirely, at least). If it's based solely off of cold hard facts and proven patterns, it's not a gut prediction.

Personally, I'm content with just grabbing my gut and barreling into the horizon while screaming "LEEROY JENKINS" at the top of my lungs. Is it as accurate as using your brain? Probably not, but it's a lot more fun and that's all that matters.

 

[cashregister9]

Gonna chime in and say I heavily disagree with the sudden insistance that Reimu, Ryza, Sakura, etc are suddenly super likely. People are comparing them to Dragon Quest and Persona, which is completely ridiculous. These two franchises, even if they are juggernauts in Japan, they were still relatively well known about in the West. Dragon Quest and Persona have been getting games in the west for years, and the latter has been pushed by Nintendo since 2014 when they became buddy buddy with Square Enix. Touhou has fans in the west but beyond avid internet users barely anyone knows about it (I expect a Mii Costume if anything. If world-renown also one-man franchise Sans was relegated to one, Reimu doesn't fare better at all). Plus Nintendo has never pushed any Touhou games in their directs. Sakura Wars is still a literal who in the west (Dragon Quest had more Workdwide renown in the 2000s than Sakura Wars has now), and 90% of it hasn't been localized. Ryza, while faring better than the other two, still has the regional hurdle. Ryza and her sequel were both featured in directs... in Japan only (the September direct last year gave us a Doom 64 segment in its place). If Nintendo wasn't confident in showing it internationally, why would it be Hero-esque DLC? Estelle definitely fares better than the rest, while not being acticely pushed there still was Trails of Cold Steel III on the Switch news page.

I know we did get unexpected less popular picks like Terry last pass, but I still think comparing these extremely niche characters to Hero and Joker (even if the latter should've been Jack Frost instead in my opinion) is completely ludicrous...

A lot of this stuff could apply to Terry... and I never compared them to Joker or Hero it was just a gut feeling

 

[Shroob]

I mean, the original question was asking about gut predictions. Gut predictions are, by definition, backed up by your gut and not your brain (Not entirely, at least). If it's based solely off of cold hard facts and proven patterns, it's not a gut prediction.

Personally, I'm content with just grabbing my gut and barreling into the horizon while screaming "LEEROY JENKINS" at the top of my lungs. Is it as accurate as using your brain? Probably not, but it's a lot more fun and that's all that matters.

God damnit, Leeroy

 

[TechPowah]

Events are back!
This week is Long Haired spirits.

Be sure to play as Palutena for an advantage

 

[SpectreJordan]

Gonna chime in and say I heavily disagree with the sudden insistance that Reimu, Ryza, Sakura, etc are suddenly super likely. People are comparing them to Dragon Quest and Persona, which is completely ridiculous. These two franchises, even if they are juggernauts in Japan, they were still relatively well known about in the West. Dragon Quest and Persona have been getting games in the west for years, and the latter has been pushed by Nintendo since 2014 when they became buddy buddy with Square Enix. Touhou has fans in the west but beyond avid internet users barely anyone knows about it (I expect a Mii Costume if anything. If world-renown also one-man franchise Sans was relegated to one, Reimu doesn't fare better at all). Plus Nintendo has never pushed any Touhou games in their directs. Sakura Wars is still a literal who in the west (Dragon Quest had more Workdwide renown in the 2000s than Sakura Wars has now), and 90% of it hasn't been localized. Ryza, while faring better than the other two, still has the regional hurdle. Ryza and her sequel were both featured in directs... in Japan only (the September direct last year gave us a Doom 64 segment in its place). If Nintendo wasn't confident in showing it internationally, why would it be Hero-esque DLC? Estelle definitely fares better than the rest, while not being acticely pushed there still was Trails of Cold Steel III on the Switch news page.

I know we did get unexpected less popular picks like Terry last pass, but I still think comparing these extremely niche characters to Hero and Joker (even if the latter should've been Jack Frost instead in my opinion) is completely ludicrous...

I get the Sakura thing tbh. It’s not big in sales, but it’s pretty beloved in Japan. I’ve seen a good amount of Japanese favorite game lists with some of those games on it though.

The Ryza thing still confuses me. The Aetlier series doesn’t really seem that popular & it doesn’t get critical praise. It’d stick out like a sore thumb unless Nintendo is buying the rights for some reason.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Be sure to play as Palutena for an advantage

"Pft. Amateurs."



EDIT: OK quick question: Is it at-leer, or at-lee-ay like we're French or something?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Oops. Double post.

 

[Shroob]

I get the Sakura thing tbh. It’s not big in sales, but it’s pretty beloved in Japan. I’ve seen a good amount of Japanese favorite game lists with some of those games on it though.

The Ryza thing still confuses me. The Aetlier series doesn’t really seem that popular & it doesn’t get critical praise. It’d stick out like a sore thumb unless Nintendo is buying the rights for some reason.

To be fair, like a lot of characters, Ryza was brought up due to a fake leak that happened around the time(Like, the literal same day of), her sequel being leaked.


Ever since then, she's kinda stuck in the back of everyone's mind.

 

[3BitSaurus]

God damnit, Leeroy

Hey, at least he has chicken.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Whatever Sakura's last name was, it is now Wars.


Also, it's pretty funny that people are arguing that lack of popularity in the west would keep a character out of the game when the argument was exactly the opposite just a few months ago. I believe it was called "Japan bias" or something stupid like that.

Japan bias exists, but they've never picked a character that had ONLY a presence in Japan. My main point though was that comparing Sakura to Hero or Terry just does not work.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Japan bias exists, but they've never picked a character that had ONLY a presence in Japan.

Not entirely true.

EDIT: Also, I doubt the amount of Japanese characters in a game using characters mostly from a single Japanese company is due to some sort of bias.

 

[TwiceEXE]

Japan bias exists, but they've never picked a character that had ONLY a presence in Japan. My main point though was that comparing Sakura to Hero or Terry just does not work.

Sakura had games released in the West. You probably shouldn't compare characters against each other as they are each chosen on their own merits.

 

[TheShiningAbsol]

OK quick question: Is it at-leer, or at-lee-ay like we're French or something?

It's uh-teh-lee-ay. It is a French word, to be fair.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Whatever Sakura's last name was, it is now Wars.


Also, it's pretty funny that people are arguing that lack of popularity in the west would keep a character out of the game when the argument was exactly the opposite just a few months ago. I believe it was called "Japan bias" or something stupid like that.

This reminds me of how some people unironically call Sans "Sans undertale" as if undertale is a surname and I think it funny and cute.

Sakura had games released in the West. You probably shouldn't compare characters against each other as they are each chosen on their own merits.

To be fair while we did get the later Sakura games neither of them actually had Sakura herself in a starring role. She appeared in them sure, but only very briefly.

Nintendo could always use modern Sakura from the PS4 game since that one did pretty well though.

 

[SharkLord]

I get the Sakura thing tbh. It’s not big in sales, but it’s pretty beloved in Japan. I’ve seen a good amount of Japanese favorite game lists with some of those games on it though.

The Ryza thing still confuses me. The Aetlier series doesn’t really seem that popular & it doesn’t get critical praise. It’d stick out like a sore thumb unless Nintendo is buying the rights for some reason.

She's a real darkhorse-Not just someone who isn't mentioned 24/7, but she's definitely got the odds stacked against her.

Still, she's not without merit. Atelier has been going on for quite some time and pretty much invented alchemy in JRPGs. Atelier Ryza, in particular, surprised the developers with how popular it was, quickly growing to be the best-selling game in the series at 500,000 copies sold. Sure, it's not much, but this is five times the expectations. As such, Ryza's been getting cameos in some of Koei-Tecmo's games as of late, and even got to star in the sequel. Keep in mind this is a series that hasn't had a numbered sequel in over a decade.

She's still pretty unlikely, though. She's someone to keep in the back of your mind, but she shouldn't be your first expectation.

 

[Shroob]

Ya know


With the Mario Direct and now BotW HW being soo close together reveal-wise, I wonder if Nintendo's just going to use September as the month where they just dump all the **** they've been holding close to their chest for months.


Irman said that HW2 is probably the last major drop this year, but he also said there's probably smaller things still coming.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

It's uh-teh-lee-ay. It is a French word, to be fair.

That's kinda what I thought (the fact that it's French, not the exact pronunciation). Interesting that I could pick that up without actually knowing anything about French. Probably means I've come a long way from thinking Shulk's accent was Australian.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Ya know


With the Mario Direct and now BotW HW being soo close together reveal-wise, I wonder if Nintendo's just going to use September as the month where they just dump all the **** they've been holding close to their chest for months.


Irman said that HW2 is probably the last major drop this year, but he also said there's probably smaller things still coming.

Smash aside, Crown Tundra and New Horizons will probably be part of the focus, along with some more third party stuff.

 

[Teeb147]

She's a real darkhorse-Not just someone who isn't mentioned 24/7, but she's definitely got the odds stacked against her.

Still, she's not without merit. Atelier has been going on for quite some time and pretty much invented alchemy in JRPGs. Atelier Ryza, in particular, surprised the developers with how popular it was, quickly growing to be the best-selling game in the series at 500,000 copies sold. Sure, it's not much, but this is five times the expectations. As such, Ryza's been getting cameos in some of Koei-Tecmo's games as of late, and even got to star in the sequel. Keep in mind this is a series that hasn't had a numbered sequel in over a decade.

She's still pretty unlikely, though. She's someone to keep in the back of your mind, but she shouldn't be your first expectation.

Lol well alchemy was in some games before the atelier series, but definitely not to its degree, it kicked it up a notch. It's also been around for quite a while and has a lot of titles. In my eyes I kinda see it a bit on the level of disgaea (as a good niche series i mean), but disgaea luckily more popular quicker, maybe because there weren't a lot of good srpgs at the time. In any case either series would be fun to see in smash for me :D

 

[chocolatejr9]

Ya know


With the Mario Direct and now BotW HW being soo close together reveal-wise, I wonder if Nintendo's just going to use September as the month where they just dump all the **** they've been holding close to their chest for months.


Irman said that HW2 is probably the last major drop this year, but he also said there's probably smaller things still coming.

Maybe? How common is it for a Direct in September? If we really aren't getting another for the rest of the year, that could explain it

 

[cashregister9]

She's a real darkhorse-Not just someone who isn't mentioned 24/7, but she's definitely got the odds stacked against her.

Still, she's not without merit. Atelier has been going on for quite some time and pretty much invented alchemy in JRPGs. Atelier Ryza, in particular, surprised the developers with how popular it was, quickly growing to be the best-selling game in the series at 500,000 copies sold. Sure, it's not much, but this is five times the expectations. As such, Ryza's been getting cameos in some of Koei-Tecmo's games as of late, and even got to star in the sequel. Keep in mind this is a series that hasn't had a numbered sequel in over a decade.

She's still pretty unlikely, though. She's someone to keep in the back of your mind, but she shouldn't be your first expectation.

Ditto on this They aren't even close to my first choice I just think the Atelier games are really comfy and think one of the Ateliers in smash would be cool

 

[Shroob]

Maybe? How common is it for a Direct in September? If we really aren't getting another for the rest of the year, that could explain it

September Directs are extremely common, like, they're the month people usually pin for one. We had one the last three years in a row if memory serves.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Maybe? How common is it for a Direct in September? If we really aren't getting another for the rest of the year, that could explain it

Pretty common iirc.

 

[chocolatejr9]

September Directs are extremely common, like, they're the month people usually pin for one. We had one the last three years in a row if memory serves.

Pretty common iirc.

Alright. I don't want to get any hopes up (this IS 2020, after all), but this may not be a slow month, at least. Now I'm even more curious about that Nintendo meeting thing, in case they finally explain a few things...

 

[cosmicB]

If Ryza was happening, she'd be a promotional pick, a "thank you" to Koei for helping them with stuff like Hyrule Warriors and 3H. With the generation shift happening, I can see the Atelier games finding a pretty comfortable home on Switch going forward with people transitioning away from the PS4, and there's no way Gust is going to suddenly want to deal with next gen hardware for the first few years when they're pumping out a yearly franchise with a small team.

I don't think she's happening, but there are definitely ways to justify her.

 

[Captain Shwampy]

Lets put Miss Phaleg in smash
Phantasy Star deserves any rep anyways

 

[Deleted member]

Maybe? How common is it for a Direct in September? If we really aren't getting another for the rest of the year, that could explain it

September Directs are extremely common, like, they're the month people usually pin for one. We had one the last three years in a row if memory serves.

It may be pretty short, but we did get a direct. It was the Mario Direct.

 

[3BitSaurus]

September Directs are extremely common, like, they're the month people usually pin for one. We had one the last three years in a row if memory serves.

If I'm not mistaken, the one year when we didn't get a September Direct, we got an early October one instead.

 

[Deleted member]

Lets put Miss Phaleg in smash
Phantasy Star deserves any rep anyways

Why is Monika bullying Sans?

 

[Captain Shwampy]

Why is Monika bullying Sans?

This isnt about Monika

Its about Phaleg

 

[Deleted member]

This isnt about Monika

Its about Phaleg

Look at the original thumbnail though.

 

[Deleted member]

I mean, when you think about it, we have one single Spirit from a game called Napoleon, don't we? That probably counts for something.

Napoleon? More like

this a bad joke but I don't regret it

 

[DarthEnderX]

OK quick question: Is it at-leer, or at-lee-ay like we're French or something?

uh-teh-lee-ay

 

[MooMew64]

I think most of what we've been seeing since the Paper Mario reveal is probably stuff recycled from the original E3 plans. All of the trailers and segments on news Nintendo's been releasing (especially the HW one today) really felt like the kind of stuff they'd have in an E3 Direct, so my best guess is all these Partner Showcases are for the third party announcements while their own stuff is getting released via shadow drops...whenever they well dang please, I guess, lol.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

When you get stabbed by Sephiroth and are laid to rest in a lake

...wait, what do you mean it was the GIRL that was supposed to get stabbed??