Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[SharkLord]

I see the discussion of "rules" has come up again. I haven't been around as much lately so I don't necessarily know the entire context but I'll just add my two cents here.

100%, I think if folks say something like, "Indies can't happen" then yeah...that's a pretty silly statement. There's nothing that says they can't, and no character should really be treated like an impossibility. There's frankly no way to know that, let alone prove it. The characters we know to be "impossible" from Sakurai himself are picks like Goku, Iron Man, or Spongebob. That's it in terms of "impossible".

Another suggested "rule" is "spirits disconfirm". This was, in my opinion, part rule and part speculation. This held true for Volume 1, and it made sense due to the context: the DLC was decided alongside the base roster, so it'd be kind of weird to see a character who got a "non-playable" type spirit become playable. There was also the wording of Spirit mode (as was previously mentioned) as well as Piranha Plant who didn't have a spirit in base game. This suggested that there was specific reasoning to go with Spirit choices. Based on that, it would seem that in the context of base roster --> Volume 1, Spirits DID disconfirm.

That said, Volume 2 is a new context. Min Min showed that Spirits aren't a death wish to characters, but does this help picks like Geno? That's yet to be seen. Min Min wasn't picked for popularity on its own, which is essentially the criteria which Geno would be picked for. It's a different situation. What helps one doesn't help all. Banjo-Kazooie may have shown that western-created characters CAN be added, but it doesn't mean all will. That's probably the best outlook: No character is impossible, but with 5 characters left, it's impossible for all characters to happen.

What I don't consider a rule, but simply speculation, is the observations that:

1) All series getting a "new" fighter have started with a character who is considered a "protagonist" by the developers, or widely seen as the protagonist. Every series with a visible protagonist has held true to that, even Min Min as "protagonist" as defined by Yabuki and Sakurai. Considering this has held true for every Smash game, it seems like this is an observation that has a solid chance to holding true. That said, this will likely only continue to apply to 3rd parties and few remaining 1st party series that seem "eligible" for a playable fighter.

2) Challenger Packs 1-6 have brought something new to Smash Ultimate in what are essentially themed packs. 1st party newcomers have thus far been new, marketable titles over games that are older. Could this change? Maybe, but it probably depends on which games they want to push, and if there's a character they want to pull from it.

3) With Mario having a 35th anniversary Smash tournament, it seems like the most opportune time to announce a Mario DLC fighter if the series is getting one. Nintendo not only has influence in the choosing of Fighters in Volume 2, but they obviously also plan out content for other events and games. It's not crazy to maybe think that, just maybe, it would make more sense to announce a character like Waluigi or Geno before the tournament starts to properly celebrate "all of the Mario content" (characters, stages, and items) as opposed to afterwards, showing that the tournament didn't really celebrate all the Mario content in the game due to the character, stage, and music that would come with the Waluigi or Geno challenger pack.
To respond to things like what's written above with "fan rule" comes across as disingenuous. This isn't arguing anything that says a character is impossible- it's making the observation, and then speculating what it could mean for future picks. That's literally the act of speculation, and it is frustrating to see these ideas get shut down. These should be met with a more open approach, in my humble opinion.
--
There are probably others I would suggest if I was thinking harder, but I'll close with the following: There's been a large movement against "fan rules" in the past year, which seems to largely target the idea that some folks are limiting what people can talk about. That seems weird, if you ask me. I know I usually have ideas that I shared and there are times I've definitely wholeheartedly believed them. That said, nobody is forcing anybody to believe what they write. If you disagree with what somebody has to say, suggest a different perspective and explain it. That's how discourse works! It's not like we're inherently arguing with each other and seething that the other person is horrible for wanting Dr. Goomba Stack (though I may judge just a little on that one). These are not personal attacks on people or characters. Some ideas gain traction because folks make a compelling case for them, and it's based/grounded in something. It's as simple as that, really.

Essentially this when it comes to Spirits. They were a deconfirmation, but things change.

As for the "fan rule" issue, I agree and disagree with both sides of it. It's silly to brush a character under the rug because of the "rules," but if there were no guidelines whatsoever, we'd have a pass consisting of something like Rundas, Guntz, Earthworm Jim, Pink Gold Peach, and Cirno, which is probably not something that's gonna happen.

As I was saying a couple pages back, I think the issue is that we focus too much on the negatives and not enough on the positives. Some characters that have a legitimate chance are brushed aside without knowing or caring about what's going for them, based on one issue they may have. Obviously, that issue is still a valid point, but it doesn't automatically invalidate what pros they may have unless it's a really really big issue.

We never really try to branch out anyways; We complain about how speculation is cyclic and boring, but whenever a new character is suggested, we either ignore them or go "Don't care, not happening, NEXT!" without looking any further. As such, we're stuck in an endless loop of Geno, Byleth, fan rules, the Galar Pokedex, and the nonexistent Nintendo Direct.

So yeah. Let's choose a character we don't talk about much and actually focus on them for a decent amount of time instead of just writing them off instantly.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Essentially this when it comes to Spirits. They were a deconfirmation, but things change.

As for the "fan rule" issue, I agree and disagree with both sides of it. It's silly to brush a character under the rug because of the "rules," but if there were no guidelines whatsoever, we'd have a pass consisting of something like Rundas, Guntz, Earthworm Jim, Pink Gold Peach, and Cirno, which is probably not something that's gonna happen.

As I was saying a couple pages back, I think the issue is that we focus too much on the negatives and not enough on the positives. Some characters that have a legitimate chance are brushed aside without knowing or caring about what's going for them, based on one issue they may have. Obviously, that issue is still a valid point, but it doesn't automatically invalidate what pros they may have unless it's a really really big issue.

We never really try to branch out anyways; We complain about how speculation is cyclic and boring, but whenever a new character is suggested, we either ignore them or go "Don't care, not happening, NEXT!" without looking any further. As such, we're stuck in an endless loop of Geno, Byleth, fan rules, the Galar Pokedex, and the nonexistent Nintendo Direct.

So yeah. Let's choose a character we don't talk about much and actually focus on them for a decent amount of time instead of just writing them off instantly.

You're pretty spot on.

I've listed positives for Dante before, made posts to try and introduce 2B to folks here who may not have played NieR Automata, but they do kinda get swept under the rug at times.

I think focusing on negatives sometimes is based on wanting to make one character look inferior to another, rather than trying to build every pick up. But I think that's also the component of character preference and mixing with argumentation of likelihood. Sometimes those things mix, other times they don't. But likelihood works both ways with preference- if somebody dislikes one character, then if an argument is made to support that character sometimes a less than grounded argument is made to discredit it. But that also might just be if somebody hasn't had the chance to play the home game of said character. But that's an even deeper problem (reasons for it that aren't anybody's fault) that we could probably talk about for hours lol.

That said, I think working in positive talk and responding to that with grounded argumentation can work pretty well. Just because somebody might not think a character is likely doesn't necessarily mean that they dislike the character. It might just help for folks to branch out more and check out some of the cool stuff that gets suggested!

 

[CannonStreak]

What's up? What are we talking about now?

If we talk about rules, I think most rules are fan made, and are just used to try to make it seem like certain characters some don't want will not get in. I mean, Sakurai did not say if any of those rules, created by fans, were true. Just that it had to be all video game characters and nothing from another form of media or whatever, and maybe one other rule I am forgetting. But yeah, rules such as fan rules are rather silly, and it doesn't make much sense as to how some people treat them as if they were actually true, when they are not even official to begin with.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I see the discussion of "rules" has come up again. I haven't been around as much lately so I don't necessarily know the entire context but I'll just add my two cents here.

100%, I think if folks say something like, "Indies can't happen" then yeah...that's a pretty silly statement. There's nothing that says they can't, and no character should really be treated like an impossibility. There's frankly no way to know that, let alone prove it. The characters we know to be "impossible" from Sakurai himself are picks like Goku, Iron Man, or Spongebob. That's it in terms of "impossible".

Another suggested "rule" is "spirits disconfirm". This was, in my opinion, part rule and part speculation. This held true for Volume 1, and it made sense due to the context: the DLC was decided alongside the base roster, so it'd be kind of weird to see a character who got a "non-playable" type spirit become playable. There was also the wording of Spirit mode (as was previously mentioned) as well as Piranha Plant who didn't have a spirit in base game. This suggested that there was specific reasoning to go with Spirit choices. Based on that, it would seem that in the context of base roster --> Volume 1, Spirits DID disconfirm.

That said, Volume 2 is a new context. Min Min showed that Spirits aren't a death wish to characters, but does this help picks like Geno? That's yet to be seen. Min Min wasn't picked for popularity on its own, which is essentially the criteria which Geno would be picked for. It's a different situation. What helps one doesn't help all. Banjo-Kazooie may have shown that western-created characters CAN be added, but it doesn't mean all will. That's probably the best outlook: No character is impossible, but with 5 characters left, it's impossible for all characters to happen.

What I don't consider a rule, but simply speculation, is the observations that:

1) All series getting a "new" fighter have started with a character who is considered a "protagonist" by the developers, or widely seen as the protagonist. Every series with a visible protagonist has held true to that, even Min Min as "protagonist" as defined by Yabuki and Sakurai. Considering this has held true for every Smash game, it seems like this is an observation that has a solid chance to holding true. That said, this will likely only continue to apply to 3rd parties and few remaining 1st party series that seem "eligible" for a playable fighter.

2) Challenger Packs 1-6 have brought something new to Smash Ultimate in what are essentially themed packs. 1st party newcomers have thus far been new, marketable titles over games that are older. Could this change? Maybe, but it probably depends on which games they want to push, and if there's a character they want to pull from it.

3) With Mario having a 35th anniversary Smash tournament, it seems like the most opportune time to announce a Mario DLC fighter if the series is getting one. Nintendo not only has influence in the choosing of Fighters in Volume 2, but they obviously also plan out content for other events and games. It's not crazy to maybe think that, just maybe, it would make more sense to announce a character like Waluigi or Geno before the tournament starts to properly celebrate "all of the Mario content" (characters, stages, and items) as opposed to afterwards, showing that the tournament didn't really celebrate all the Mario content in the game due to the character, stage, and music that would come with the Waluigi or Geno challenger pack.

To respond to things like what's written above with "fan rule" comes across as disingenuous. This isn't arguing anything that says a character is impossible- it's making the observation, and then speculating what it could mean for future picks. That's literally the act of speculation, and it is frustrating to see these types of ideas get shut down rather than responded to, rather than either "fan rule" or "Sakurai does what he wants!" These should be met with a more open and grounded approach, in my humble opinion.
--
There are probably others I would suggest if I was thinking harder, but I'll close with the following: There's been a large movement against "fan rules" in the past year, which seems to largely target the idea that some folks are limiting what people can talk about. That seems weird, if you ask me. I know I usually have ideas that I shared and there are times I've definitely wholeheartedly believed them. That said, nobody is forcing anybody to believe what they write. If you disagree with what somebody has to say, suggest a different perspective and explain it. That's how discourse works! It's not like we're inherently arguing with each other and seething that the other person is horrible for wanting Dr. Goomba Stack (though I may judge just a little on that one). These are not personal attacks on people or characters. Some ideas gain traction because folks make a compelling case for them, and it's based/grounded in something. It's as simple as that, really.

(Sorry, BEEG post)

That's all fine, and "we've mostly gotten protagonists", "first party newcomers have schewed promotional" and "we could get a Mario character" are not points I'd argue against. But they're incredibly old hat by this point, everything pertinent to them has already been discussed to exhaustion, and to keep seeing all speculation exclusively filtered through those topics is just boring.

If we've discussed everything there is in the upper echelons of likelihood, it can't hurt to go a bit lower, a bit wilder. We're never right anyway, so no loss there.

 

[CannonStreak]

That's all fine, and "we've mostly gotten protagonists", "first party newcomers have schewed promotional" and "we could get a Mario character" are not points I'd argue against. But they're incredibly old hat by this point, everything pertinent to them has already been discussed to exhaustion, and to keep seeing all speculation exclusively filtered through those topics is just boring.

If we've discussed everything there is in the upper echelons of likelihood, it can't hurt to go a bit lower, a bit wilder. We're never right anyway, so no loss there.

Who has said that, by the way? Of course, just because we have gotten protagonists or promotional, and perhaps getting a Mario character have been said, does not mean that will be the case for future DLC in regards to the first two things, or turn out true for the last one. I think there are still some out of the blue picks to be had that we don't see coming, still, and with that, as you said, that makes us never right on things.

 

[KillerCage]

Do you guys see PapaGenos' video regarding Fawful?

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Actually this gave me an idea. I'm gonna type out a few examples of what folks consider a "rule" and compare it to the argument rather than it being treated as a rule.

Rule: "Indies can't be DLC. They're only going to be Mii costumes"

Speculation/Argument: "Indie fighters aren't impossible. That said, I think that they may not be playable given the fact that Sans and Cuphead were given costumes (which effectively make them as close to being playable without them actually being playable) and Shovel Knight being an AT. These 3 are some of the hottest Indie IP in the last decade, and they aren't playable. If you ask me, they will continue to get this sort of treatment."

Rule: 'We're only going to get 3rd parties or promotional 1st parties"

Speculation/Argument: "Based on DLC up to this point, all picks have been 3rd party or 1st party promotional. At this point, based on this, it seems that the trend could very well continue. It isn't impossible for characters outside of that scope to become playable, but it would buck a trend that has largely continued since Smash Wii U/3DS. I think we'll continue to see this, but I wouldn't rule out anything."

Rule: "Assist Trophies won't be upgraded"

Speculation/Argument: "We haven't seen an Assist Trophy upgrade before. Even though we've gotten a spirit upgrade with Min Min, it doesn't speak much to Assist Trophies. It seems like there's a gameplay context to Assist Trophies that Spirits don't have, in that Waluigi, for example, has much time invested in his model and animations. Based on that I'm of the belief that Assist Trophy character will remain just that, and we won't see upgrades.

It's a fine line, but I think it can be distinct.

That's all fine, and "we've mostly gotten protagonists", "first party newcomers have schewed promotional" and "we could get a Mario character" are not points I'd argue against. But they're incredibly old hat by this point, everything pertinent to them has already been discussed to exhaustion, and to keep seeing all speculation exclusively filtered through those topics is just boring.

If we've discussed everything there is in the upper echelons of likelihood, it can't hurt to go a bit lower, a bit wilder. We're never right anyway, so no loss there.

Yeah, I think that's fair. I'd like to think that the discussion overall can be renewed when we learn who Challenger 7 is, but that may even be wishful thinking.

I was thinking of using roster maker to come up with a sort of "poll", but I'm lazy with Smash stuff and starting school again. Big sad.

 

[MooMew64]

If I might bring up an interesting subject: How do y'all feel about Monster Hunter? Monster Hunter is in the same position as ARMS was where it has a small base game presence, but no playable presence, stage, Spirits or even the old Smash 4 Mii Costumes. I truly do wonder if it could potentially be on the table for a Capcom reps: We all talk about Dante or Phoenix a bunch, but MH is kind of left out in the conversation and I'm starting to think it might have a real shot given what happened to ARMS. Monster Hunter is mega popular, and is a franchise that I could see edge out even DMC given how much Capcom pushes it, as well as the rumors going around about a potentially new MH on Switch.

What is everyone's thoughts here on this?

 

[CannonStreak]

If I might bring up an interesting subject: How do y'all feel about Monster Hunter? Monster Hunter is in the same position as ARMS was where it has a small base game presence, but no playable presence, stage, Spirits or even the old Smash 4 Mii Costumes. I truly do wonder if it could potentially be on the table for a Capcom reps: We all talk about Dante or Phoenix a bunch, but MH is kind of left out in the conversation and I'm starting to think it might have a real shot given what happened to ARMS. Monster Hunter is mega popular, and is a franchise that I could see edge out even DMC given how much Capcom pushes it, as well as the rumors going around about a potentially new MH on Switch.

What is everyone's thoughts here on this?

I would love to see a Monster Hunter rep! Obviously, Rathalos would be the fighter's boss, but hey. I wonder which Monster Hunter character they'd use, though?

 

[MooMew64]

I would love to see a Monster Hunter rep! Obviously, Rathalos would be the fighter's boss, but hey. I wonder which Monster Hunter character they'd use, though?

Not a huge MH guy myself, but from what I do know and the little I've played of one of the 3DS ones, I think it'd be a situation where the character would just be a generic hunter with armor sets from the series and a moveset that references all the different playable weapons? I'm sure someone more knowledgeable than me would be able to answer a bit better, ha ha. I've just been thinking about it again recently when thinking about speculation and it's something I really could see having a shot of happening in FP2.

 

[CannonStreak]

Not a huge MH guy myself, but from what I do know and the little I've played of one of the 3DS ones, I think it'd be a situation where the character would just be a generic hunter with armor sets from the series and a moveset that references all the different playable weapons? I'm sure someone more knowledgeable than me would be able to answer a bit better, ha ha. I've just been thinking about it again recently when thinking about speculation and it's something I really could see having a shot of happening in FP2.

The generic Monster Hunter character is what I think, too. Regardless, I would love to see a character from that series be in Ultimate, even though I am not much into the series itself.

 

[cashregister9]

If I might bring up an interesting subject: How do y'all feel about Monster Hunter? Monster Hunter is in the same position as ARMS was where it has a small base game presence, but no playable presence, stage, Spirits or even the old Smash 4 Mii Costumes. I truly do wonder if it could potentially be on the table for a Capcom reps: We all talk about Dante or Phoenix a bunch, but MH is kind of left out in the conversation and I'm starting to think it might have a real shot given what happened to ARMS. Monster Hunter is mega popular, and is a franchise that I could see edge out even DMC given how much Capcom pushes it, as well as the rumors going around about a potentially new MH on Switch.

What is everyone's thoughts here on this?

Personally I don't think that Monster Hunter has a great chance because Nintendo and Capcom already had discussions about Monster Hunter for more than just PNG's. I feel like if Capcom/Sakurai/Nintendo wanted a character they would have chosen one when Rathalos was added IMO.

 

[Icedragonadam]

3rd party blank state custom characters are among my my least wanted characters so no.

And besides Monster Hunter has some substantial content already including music which is in the misc section as I mentioned before.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

That said, I think working in positive talk and responding to that with grounded argumentation can work pretty well. Just because somebody might not think a character is likely doesn't necessarily mean that they dislike the character. It might just help for folks to branch out more and check out some of the cool stuff that gets suggested!

Problem is, I don't think there's any concrete evidence for anyone, just against. Sure you could discuss interesting things they could do or come with, or the merits of them being included in the first place, but you can't really say that they're likelier than anyone else that also doesn't have anything going against them. EDIT: Except when interesting circumstances come to light such as the Mario 35th anniversary, though I think the ship has sailed on that front.

We probably need to shift what we're actually talking about for things to stop being so cyclical.

Do you guys see PapaGenos' video regarding Fawful?

I dunno why people keep bringing him up. Literally every time it's some sort of "Illuminati confirmed" tier logic.

3rd party blank state custom characters are among my my least wanted characters so no.

Dread it.

Run from it.

The Dragonborn Cometh.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

The Dragonborn Cometh.

AND I WOULD BE BEYOND HYPED

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Whatchu mean, we already have Monster Hunter.

 

[PSIGuy]

Is it still a rule that Fighter Packs have to focus on a single franchise or entry in that franchise? Terry pushes that definition pretty far but he's still a Fatal Fury character with a Fatal Fury stage with mixed Spirits and Music. Practical examples would be Xenoblade 2 character + Xenoblade X stage, popular Zelda character + BotW 2 stage, Ys character + Trails in the Sky stage + assorted Falcom music/spirits etc.

The ultimate "not gonna happen" is a cross-COMPANY fighter pack because legally that'd be a nightmare. Could maybe work as an indie pack though, with the stage having assorted elements from multiple games even if the playable character is just Shovel Knight or something.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Is it still a rule that Fighter Packs have to focus on a single franchise or entry in that franchise? Terry pushes that definition pretty far but he's still a Fatal Fury character with a Fatal Fury stage with mixed Spirits and Music. Practical examples would be Xenoblade 2 character + Xenoblade X stage, popular Zelda character + BotW 2 stage, Ys character + Trails in the Sky stage + assorted Falcom music/spirits etc.

The ultimate "not gonna happen" is a cross-COMPANY fighter pack because legally that'd be a nightmare. Could maybe work as an indie pack though, with the stage having assorted elements from multiple games even if the playable character is just Shovel Knight or something.

i think that only counts with third parties. Byleth didn't come with any other FE content, only from Three Houses

 

[SirBillyBob]

Is it still a rule that Fighter Packs have to focus on a single franchise or entry in that franchise? Terry pushes that definition pretty far but he's still a Fatal Fury character with a Fatal Fury stage with mixed Spirits and Music. Practical examples would be Xenoblade 2 character + Xenoblade X stage, popular Zelda character + BotW 2 stage, Ys character + Trails in the Sky stage + assorted Falcom music/spirits etc.

The ultimate "not gonna happen" is a cross-COMPANY fighter pack because legally that'd be a nightmare. Could maybe work as an indie pack though, with the stage having assorted elements from multiple games even if the playable character is just Shovel Knight or something.

I imagine Terry was an exception to that rule (hurr durr exceptions, I know) mainly due to the fact that his stage, If I recall, is a Smash original coupled with his home series sort of being replaced with the King of Fighters series. Plus, we know SNK pretty much let Sakurai go nuts, so I imagine that played a part too.

 

[7NATOR]

If I might bring up an interesting subject: How do y'all feel about Monster Hunter? Monster Hunter is in the same position as ARMS was where it has a small base game presence, but no playable presence, stage, Spirits or even the old Smash 4 Mii Costumes. I truly do wonder if it could potentially be on the table for a Capcom reps: We all talk about Dante or Phoenix a bunch, but MH is kind of left out in the conversation and I'm starting to think it might have a real shot given what happened to ARMS. Monster Hunter is mega popular, and is a franchise that I could see edge out even DMC given how much Capcom pushes it, as well as the rumors going around about a potentially new MH on Switch.

What is everyone's thoughts here on this?

The interesting thing is that at the time Monster Hunter was negotiated for Smash, Monster Hunter World hadn't come out yet (or was even a thing). That game has since become Capcom's Best selling game, and also really put Monster Hunter on the map in the West


So going into FP2, there's more merit for Monster Hunter's Inclusion than it was going into Base game. The thing to consider is if the Development team/Nintendo feel Ratholos is enough Representation for the Franchise, and also if Monster Hunter doesn't conceptually share too much with other characters (Byleth). Otherwise it's probably just a question of whether Monster Hunter would be Priorty enough to get a Fighter Slot

I also say this as someone that's not feeling Monster Hunter for FP2, nor has interest in the series at all

 

[Djnth0llmn]

Sounds like it won't be that soon.

 

[GoodGrief741]

If I might bring up an interesting subject: How do y'all feel about Monster Hunter? Monster Hunter is in the same position as ARMS was where it has a small base game presence, but no playable presence, stage, Spirits or even the old Smash 4 Mii Costumes. I truly do wonder if it could potentially be on the table for a Capcom reps: We all talk about Dante or Phoenix a bunch, but MH is kind of left out in the conversation and I'm starting to think it might have a real shot given what happened to ARMS. Monster Hunter is mega popular, and is a franchise that I could see edge out even DMC given how much Capcom pushes it, as well as the rumors going around about a potentially new MH on Switch.

What is everyone's thoughts here on this?

MonHun is weird because of the whole "getting Rathalos for base roster", but there could certainly be a character pack assembled with content that wouldn't feel redundant. And it's a big splashy series, no doubt. I'd be all for it.

Capcom, though, what to make of it. I was 100% certain that they'd get a character for the first Pass and that didn't pan out, so now I'm leaning towards them not getting a character at all.

 

[cashregister9]

The interesting thing is that at the time Monster Hunter was negotiated for Smash, Monster Hunter World hadn't come out yet (or was even a thing). That game has since become Capcom's Best selling game, and also really put Monster Hunter on the map in the West


So going into FP2, there's more merit for Monster Hunter's Inclusion than it was going into Base game. The thing to consider is if the Development team/Nintendo feel Ratholos is enough Representation for the Franchise, and also if Monster Hunter doesn't conceptually share too much with other characters (Byleth). Otherwise it's probably just a question of whether Monster Hunter would be Priorty enough to get a Fighter Slot

I also say this as someone that's not feeling Monster Hunter for FP2, nor has interest in the series at all

To be completely fair Monster Hunter World Came Out in January of 2018 and Rathalos was revealed on August 8th 2018, we don't know when they negotiated Monster Hunter but what you said is a pretty safe bet I just wanted to get that out there.

 

[PeridotGX]

Do you guys see PapaGenos' video regarding Fawful?

If Fawful, by some miracle, ascended to mainline Mario, I'd have the opposite of fury. He could be in Mario Kart, he could be in Mario party, he could even be in Smash.

(it's not happening though)

 

[SharkLord]

Actually this gave me an idea. I'm gonna type out a few examples of what folks consider a "rule" and compare it to the argument rather than it being treated as a rule.

Rule: "Indies can't be DLC. They're only going to be Mii costumes"

Speculation/Argument: "Indie fighters aren't impossible. That said, I think that they may not be playable given the fact that Sans and Cuphead were given costumes (which effectively make them as close to being playable without them actually being playable) and Shovel Knight being an AT. These 3 are some of the hottest Indie IP in the last decade, and they aren't playable. If you ask me, they will continue to get this sort of treatment."

Rule: 'We're only going to get 3rd parties or promotional 1st parties"

Speculation/Argument: "Based on DLC up to this point, all picks have been 3rd party or 1st party promotional. At this point, based on this, it seems that the trend could very well continue. It isn't impossible for characters outside of that scope to become playable, but it would buck a trend that has largely continued since Smash Wii U/3DS. I think we'll continue to see this, but I wouldn't rule out anything."

Rule: "Assist Trophies won't be upgraded"

Speculation/Argument: "We haven't seen an Assist Trophy upgrade before. Even though we've gotten a spirit upgrade with Min Min, it doesn't speak much to Assist Trophies. It seems like there's a gameplay context to Assist Trophies that Spirits don't have, in that Waluigi, for example, has much time invested in his model and animations. Based on that I'm of the belief that Assist Trophy character will remain just that, and we won't see upgrades.

It's a fine line, but I think it can be distinct.

Yeah, I think that's fair. I'd like to think that the discussion overall can be renewed when we learn who Challenger 7 is, but that may even be wishful thinking.

I was thinking of using roster maker to come up with a sort of "poll", but I'm lazy with Smash stuff and starting school again. Big sad.

Hmm... I suppose I could try something for this.

Rule: "Fighters need to be the protagonist for DLC."

Argument: "The entirety of FP1 have been protagonists, and while Min Min stretches the rule a little, she still follows this trend because ARMS is stated to have an ensemble cast. In addition, all the DLCs so far have at least represented a specific game, series, or company. Protagonists are generally closely tied to most content in those installments by virtue of being, y'know, the protagonist. As a result, they are more easily tied to a pack than more generally-spread supporting characters like Bandana Dee, Impa, and Waluigi."

Rule: "Fighters must be popular worldwide."

Argument: "Obviously, fighters don't absolutely need to have global popularity, as characters like Little Mac, Hero, and Terry have demonstrated. However, it's a point in their favor, as that would allow for a broader range of appeal. That being said, characters that are truly iconic in one part of the world like Reimu Hakurei, Sakura Shinguji, and the Doom Slayer could get around that difficulty by having a focused appeal in one region instead of a wider but more thinly-spread appeal."

Rule: "Fighters need to have been on Nintendo systems."

Argument: "Generally, it would make more sense to promote characters that are on your system than to promote ones that are not. Besides, if Nintendo's all buddy-buddy with the company to the point that they can negotiate a Smash fighter, they would more than likely be putting games on their systems already."

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I honestly think given how Byleth plays has destroyed any chance Monster Hunter had.

 

[Deleted member]

Do you guys see PapaGenos' video regarding Fawful?

I quit watching PapaGenos after he posted his Byleth video.

It was just too much for me, and I couldn't really handle him anymore. I didn't even see the rant, lol.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Let me guess he tried to connect Bowser's Fury with Fawful's "I HAVE FURY!" catachphrase? Even though Fury is a common word to put in a title.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I honestly think given how Byleth plays has destroyed any chance Monster Hunter had.

You lack imagination then.

Byleth doesn't even begin to touch on all the gear Monster Hunter has.

 

[Perkilator]

And besides Monster Hunter has some substantial content already including music which is in the misc section as I mentioned before.

Two songs and a character who's a boss, Spirit and Assist Trophy all at once? As well as a Mii costume that hasn't come back from Smash 4? I dunno...compared even to PAC-MAN, MH's content seems pretty lacking, IMO.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

The interesting thing is that at the time Monster Hunter was negotiated for Smash, Monster Hunter World hadn't come out yet (or was even a thing). That game has since become Capcom's Best selling game, and also really put Monster Hunter on the map in the West

This could also be said about the Prince of All Cosmos. Katamari Damacy Reroll. Despite releasing on the same day as Smash itself it pulled in plenty of sales records, hitting 4th on the eShop internationally above games like Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee and ended up bringing tons of new people in. It positively revitalized the franchise and resulted in lots of new merchandise being made, along with Namco using Katamari in their crossovers again. Plus with hints at a We Love Katamari remaster, the series' future is looking bright! Not to mention all of this happened during early to mid 2019, just in time for FP2 negotiations!

Another notable thing, Reroll along with games like Mr. Driller DRILLAND and the rumored Klonoa remaster are all titled Encore in Japan, being marketed as a series of remasters. The fact that they chose Katamari to spearhead it says a lot!

 

[7NATOR]

To be completely fair Monster Hunter World Came Out in January of 2018 and Rathalos was revealed on August 8th 2018, we don't know when they negotiated Monster Hunter but what you said is a pretty safe bet I just wanted to get that out there.

Wait it came out that early. Man Time files

Considering How long it would probably take to make a whole boss, and then the negotiations before that, I would say Monster Hunter World wasn't factored in as hard. at the least, it's existence could have been factored in, but not how good the game did, which is something that could be factored in going into FP2

And honestly thinking about it, I actually think of all the franchises that are in the game, but didn't get a Playable character/Newcomer in Base game/FP1, Monster Hunter might have the most going for it. However there's other Franchises, Like Bomberman, Shovel Knight, Golden Sun (Potentially), that have increased merits for Playable character, for FP2 among others

 

[PeridotGX]

Let me guess he tried to connect Bowser's Fury with Fawful's "I HAVE FURY!" catachphrase? Even though Fury is a common word to put in a title.

That, the logo kinda looking like the Dark Star, and the + resembling that from the M&L remakes.

All incredibly weak arguments, but I'm gonna blindly believe them because it would provide a timeline I desire.

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

Given how the Fighter's Pass 2 has already been decided, it's been no skin off my nose on whether I'm right or wrong at this point. Literally no amount of passionate arguing I could do for one character or against another, hell anyone on this thread, can change the Fighter's Pass at this point.

It's why I've basically thrown out any and all notions of fan rules whenever I have an opinion for a character to talk about, said rules are only relevant for this incarnation of Smash, anyone at this point is eligible if not this game, then a future Smash.

I generally care more about talking about characters from interesting series and coming up with cool movesets than guessing "safe" characters and hoping I'm right.

 

[Deleted member]

Monster Hunter would be nice. I respect Monster Hunter as a succesful series, and I could see Monster Hunter being a very fun character.

I think Rathalos might hurt Monster Hunter's chances, but I am not saying they are impossible. Monster Hunter is quite succesful in Japan, so it has that.

 

[Cosmic77]

There's plenty of merit to adding a MH character, but I don't think there's currently anything pointing to one being added.

At this point, it's just a waiting game to see what happens to the two Mii costumes that haven't returned yet.

 

[7NATOR]

Actually, On Gen 8 Pokemon...

If a Gen 8 Pokemon's inclusion follows the same logic of Byleth, A Gen 8 Pokemon would actually have to be either FP7 or FP8 (pretty much a character revealed this year). I mean i don't know exactly what people are thinking on what FP the hypotheical Pokemon would be, but I feel like people were expecting it to be the last fighter the most, mostly since it follows the creteria of final reveals

However, The 2nd Expansion DLC for Sword and Shield is releasing late this year, and with no further indication of more DLC, that may be as far as it goes. Byleth was chosen cause Nintendo wanted a character from a game "people would be Playing now". I would assume Gen 8 Pokemon, if they were chosen, would follow that same Criteria, as I don't know what else they'd be chosen, unless they were chosen for Casual Appeal. Even then, if that's the reason, they still would have to be revealed as FP7 or FP8, closer to the beginning of the Pass than the end

So i guess if we go FP7 and FP8 (maybe FP9) wihtout Pokemon, I think you could say it's likely chance of no Pokemon happening

 

[Peeton]

I don’t really care for monster hunter. They’re a SUPER predictable pick.

 

[SKX31]

"Hey Sony you were being a big party pooper so we put your mascot in there for you!"

Kratos Crashes the Party!

(I regret nothing!)

Two songs and a character who's a boss, Spirit and Assist Trophy all at once? As well as a Mii costume that hasn't come back from Smash 4? I dunno...compared even to PAC-MAN, MH's content seems pretty lacking, IMO.

It's honestly very difficult to say where MH stands because of the content in the base game. One could make a concievable argument that Sakurai / Nintendo prioritized Rathalos and the idea of, well, fighting monsters with an avatar. But the small amount of content already in also creates an unsteady assumption that MH's relatively expensive to license (which we don't know if that's the case or not even if it looks the part). Meanwhile, one can also make a counter-argument that the MH (playable character's) not bound by what Rathalos brought to the table. But MH's chances as a playable character also kinda rely on Sakurai / Nintendo instead seeing MH as a game centered around exploration and the player character's actions / weapons during the fights instead of the monsters. Something that's got no evidence for it really, even though it's fully possible that Sakurai / Nintendo see MH that way.

 

[Deleted member]

I don’t really care for monster hunter. They’re a SUPER predictable pick.

I don't really care for [Insert Game Series That I Hate and Never Played]. They're a SUPER predictable pick.