Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[XorahnGaia]

View attachment 284604

So apparently the directs have been updated again

Mmmh... considering that the last update did point to the Mario Direct it's very likely that is could point to some sort of Direct for next week
However, the "Sakurai presents" streams aren't branded as Direct, so they don't show up on the site, the same goes for Pokèmon Presents.

If I had to beat, this update is most likely for the next Partner Showcase, unless they decide to randomly stream a full Smash Direct or something.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I just checked they are not

here's hoping for a traditional direct with smash reveals in it a la Hero/Banjo/Terry then with the Presents streams at a later date, as opposed to reveals in the Sakurai Presents with Byleth and Min Min

 

[Mushroomguy12]

I just found about a certian character that had their only obstacle shattered by Min Min
View attachment 284607
They're in

I found another one.

 

[Lamperouge]

View attachment 284604

So apparently the directs have been updated again

Mario 35th Anniversary Direct Part...2!

 

[SKX31]

Hello everyone. I'm here to pop in and present my final set of essays:

The Second Set of Characters to Look Out For in Ultimate DLC​

Spoiler: Introduction

This collection of short essays serves a dual purpose:

1. To argue for the chances of characters not conventionally talked about and provide a break in the current flow of speculation, the same as the essays before, and
2. To serve as a goodbye piece for my time on Smashboards. After posting a final repository of my essays, including this collection, I will be changing the password of this account to a random combination that I will not memorize, and I will furthermore be asking the moderation team of this site to act within their power to further restrict my access to this account.

To put it short, I've grown a lot as a person since first coming back here over two years ago, and I think it's time that I put this chapter of my life behind me to move on to other pursuits. I'll reflect more on my time here in the conclusion of this essay.

Before leaving, however, I'd like to wrap up some loose ends, primarily being to cover some characters I've been meaning to write on for a while now. I won't waste any further time delving into the essays.

Spoiler: Table of Contents

Spoiler: Background - Beyond Nintendo

This was included in all of the my previous Characters to look out for Ultimate DLC essay. As I believe it's still pertinent to this series, I'll be including it here with minor edits.

Smash Bros. is a celebration of gaming. Having grown beyond its humble origins as a Nintendo crossover, it's scope extends far beyond one single company, drawing in famous characters from a variety of companies.

"But tehponycorn!" you say, "Smash Bros. is about Nintendo first!" To which I respond with this 2018 statement from Sakurai:


With this established, in regards to Smash speculation, the sky is the limit. So long as they originate from a video game, they could realistically be in Smash Bros. So then the question I pose is: why do we stick to the same old echoed characters? Time and time again the Smash fanbase has speculated around characters only to be blindsided by picks like Joker, Hero, and Terry. These picks make sense in hindsight, yet prior to their inclusion were supported by a certain few who were laughed off until they were right, at which point these characters were seen as "obvious." In writing these essays I hope to pop the Smash Bubble for a bit and broaden the horizons of speculation. While these essays will surely be lost in the void that is current speculation, I hope the effort is appreciated regardless.

Spoiler: Farmer (Story of Seasons)

View attachment 284538

Farmer (also known as Pete) is, in my opinion, is the likeliest character nobody talks about. While people are quick to mention Travis Touchdown in regards to Marvelous characters, no one ever really considers the Farmer.

To begin with, Story of Seasons (known as Harvest Moon in the West until 2012–it's a long story) is a long-running series with prominent ties to Nintendo. It began on the SNES and has continued to this day, with the most recent release, Friends of Mineral Town, releasing a little under two months ago on the Switch. The series is most notable for its influence on the farming genre of gaming, which has seen a notable resurgence with games such as Stardew Valley achieving incredible success with the same premise. The farming genre is surprisingly popular as of late with Stardew Valley selling a staggering 10 million copies as of 2020. Story of Seasons as a whole is no slouch either when it comes to sales. As of 2011, the series had reached a lifetime sales of almost 1 million units (counting titles in the Rune Factory spinoff series it launched), which it has surely passed by now. Story of Seasons games were the fastest selling game of all time for XSEED (Marvelous' Western publishing brand) not just once, but twice. The most recent release has sold at least 300,000 copies as of July between Japan and North America (with most of those sales being from Japan), meaning that the series still sees prominent success.

Another interesting point for Farmer is Sakurai's acknowledgement of the farming genre itself. In his Famitsu Column titled "Man, Farming is Dangerous," he says exactly what the title says, citing the addictive nature of the simple tasks and the "sense of liberation when you start to get powered up" as positive traits for the genre. I think his focus on the gameplay is interesting, because it provides a basic framework of how a Story of Seasons character could work. Thing something like Frank West in Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3, except instead of miscellaneous weapons it's farming tools that continually power up and make the Farmer stronger as the match goes on. Moveset potential is far from an argument against Farmer, considering the presence of Villager, and I believe that he could provide a unique edge moveset-wise compared to Villager by focusing on farming actions and a continually strengthening tool set per stock.

Finally, it ought to be noted that Marvelous has with the Smash team to bring Daemon x Machina Spirits to Smash ought to be noted, as it sets a precedent of communication between the two. While many cite this in favor of Travis, I would just as much cite it in favor of Farmer. At the very least, I would consider him a real contender when considering Marvelous characters.

Spoiler: Sakura Shinguji

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Sakura got discussion here for like, one week, and then never got talked about again really. Besides that one period and discussion on some surprisingly convincing fake "leaks" Sakura sees little to no discussion, which is rather odd considering how popular the Sakura Wars series is. I suppose it makes sense given that most of the series' popularity stems from Japan, and it's only just now seeing a large push into the West, but regardless Sakura is another one of the likeliest characters that nobody talks about.

Before the release of the 2019 reboot, the series had sold 3.8 million units, and has since sold upwards of 4 million units as of December 2019. This does not factor in continued sales of the reboot as well as sales of the reboot in America, so the series has surely surpassed that number by now. (This figure exists that says the series has sold a lifetime 4.5 million units, but this seems to be in the context of the original series so this may not be an accurate indicator of the series' lifetime sales, especially when compared to official Sega reports.) Prior to the series falling dormant in 2010, Sakura Wars was one of the largest gaming series in Japan, period. Three of the first four games in the series placed among the best selling Sega Saturn and Dreamcast games of all time, and the fourth, the first Sakura Wars game, placed thirtheenth, and also sold out several stores near hours after its release. Considering how popular Sega consoles were in Japan, this is significant. The series also spawned a variety of other popular media, including anime, manga, stage shows, light novels, concerts, CD releases, and a cafe/merchandise store that successfully ran from 1998-2008. The series also received mass critical acclaim at the time, with both journalists and fans praising the game in various ways, be it acclaim or awards. To provide two (of many) examples, the original Sakura Wars was the second most-wanted game in a 1996 Famitsu poll, only after Final Fantasy VII, and in another 2009 Famitsu poll Sakura was rated as the 17th best Japanese video game character, placing ahead of other prominent characters such as Luigi, Sephiroth, Mega Man, and Dante among others. The series has also crossed over with multiple other franchises, including Granblue Fantasy, To Aru Majutsu no Index, Star Ocean (twice), and most notably, multiple Capcom and Namco series as a part of Project X Zone and Project X Zone 2.

Most recently, the series was revived due to large fan demand (with Sakura Wars topping a Sega series revival fan poll in a landslide by a little under 1000 votes). The reboot has done incredibly well sales wise, most recently placing in the top 1/3 (Rank 32) of the Top 100 best-selling games of 2019 according to Famitsu, making it the third best selling Sega title only behind Persona 5 Royal and Mario and Sonic at the Tokyo Olympic Games. For reference, both of the former games have playable representation in Smash Brothers Ultimate.

The reboot has marked a significant revival of the series, bringing its own manga series, anime series (which was picked up for a simulcast by Funimation), and a stage play (which was unfortunately canceled due to COVID complications). And the developers of the reboot want to keep the momentum going as much as possible, with them stating in a recent interview that they're "actively researching to see where there is high demand and determine what actions will be feasible" and "pushing to make it (a continuation of the new series) happen." Even during its lull, the series was popular within Sega, with the devs stating in an earlier interview that ideas for the series' continuation were being pitched yearly. Sakura Wars is an incredibly popular both within and outside of Sega. Considering the close relationship that Nintendo and Sega share alongside the strong precedent that they have working on Smash together, I could definitely see Sega suggesting Sakura to represent the Sakura Wars series, and Nintendo/Sakurai adding her to the game due to the massive popularity and acclaim surrounding the series.

You know, the image of a series that's incredibly popular in Japan but just recently seeing a push into the West almost makes me think of another series currently in Smash. I swear I talked about it in-depth, but I just can't remember...

View attachment 284559

Beats me.

Regardless, I'd say Sakura is one of, if not the most likely Sega characters if we get another one.

Spoiler: Reisalin "Ryza" Stout

View attachment 284541

Another viable character often overlooked in favor of a much more popular peer from the same company, in this case Ryu Hayabusa. While I wouldn't say Ryza is as likely as the previous two characters, I would still say she still has a very real chance and is underestimated in common speculation.

To start, the Atelier series is long-running series, with the first game, Atelier Marie, releasing in 1997 for the original Playstation. The series has just recently seen a slew of releases on the Nintendo Switch, with the Arland and Dusk trilogies being ported alongside Ateliers of the World, Lylie and Sadie, Lulua, Ryza, and now Ryza 2 all seeing releases on the system. That's 10 games released on the Switch in the past two years, with an additional one being released in later this year. That's a significant amount of games to release in such a short amount of time, and at the very least shows significant support of the Switch.

Ryza has been a breakout success for Gust (a subsidiary of Koei Tecmo), having the strongest launch for an Atelier game and quickly making pace to become the best-selling game in the series as of this August, blowing the previous best seller out of the water by over 100,000 units. For a typically niche series like Atelier, this is a very big deal. It seems that for some reason or another, Ryza is a stand-out star for Koei, as evidenced by the significant attention she and the first Atelier Ryza received significant attention before release, Ryza has been cross-promoted in other notable Koei series Dead or Alive and Romance of the Three Kingdoms, and having been planned by Gust to headline two mainline Atelier games, of which she is the first Atelier protagonist to do so. Her overwhelming popularity certainly doesn't hurt either.

It should go without saying that the Koei Tecmo has one of, if not the strongest relationship with Nintendo as a third party company. Koei Tecmo has handled two of Nintendo's first party IPs in Hyrule Warriors (which received an improved port on the Nintendo Switch) and Fire Emblem Warriors, and played an integral role in the development of Fire Emblem: Three Houses. In the past, they've also worked together with Nintendo on two of titles in the Fatal Frame series, which has notably received representation in the form of Fatal Frame: Maiden of Black Water protagonist Yuri Kozukata as an assist trophy. Based on Ryza's prominence and the seeming push for her games within the company, I could definitely see Koei suggest Ryza as a character, and her addition being based on the long-running nature of the Atelier series and the recent, significant support of the Switch system.

Now, I hear you say, "BUT TEHPONYCORN! RYZA ISN'T FOR GOOD BOYS AND GIRLS! THIGHS!!!" to which I respond:

View attachment 284566

In an interview discussing Ryza and the wider Atelier series, producer Junzo Hosoi said this in regards to Ryza's design:


Furthermore, Atelier Ryza received a CERO B (Ages 12+) rating, with the sequel receiving a CERO C (Ages 15+) rating due to the addition of water making clothes wet. Ryza's design would barely be a problem, if at all.

Additionally, if it means anything, @Scoliosis Jones had this to say about Atelier Ryza when interviewed:


So there's that too.

Is Ryza the most likely character? No. However, I believe that she's a viable contender for a Koei Tecmo spot if we get one, and has a real place in the conversation pertaining to potential newcomers.

Spoiler: League of Legends

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This is an essay I've been meaning to write since my first set of essays in January, if not earlier. It was actually meant to end my first series series before my school life picked up and prematurely ended it. I think it's fitting that this be my last essay here. I'm sure this could've been better, but as things are I'm happy to end things here.

Despite its prominence in the genre and Riot's large attempt to branch the series out from its PC origins, League doesn't see much mention if any here.

To put it lightly, League of Legends is absolutely massive. As of September 2019 the game drew in 8 million concurrent players every day, and reached more than 100 million people in December 2019 with the League of Legends World Championship. It's one of, if not the most popular PC game, and it is most definitely the most popular eSports game. There is a massive market to draw in to the Nintendo Switch ecosystem by adding a League of Legends character, especially if paired with one or multiple of Riot Game's upcoming console game efforts, such as Wild Rift, Ruined King, and/or CONV/RGENCE among others. While no specific consoles have been announced for any of these projects, I would say it's incredibly likely that at least one, if not all of them end up on the Nintendo Switch, given the system's large success in all markets, which knocks out the flimsy prerequisite of having to appear on a Nintendo console.

I think another thing that ought to be considered here is Tencent, who own 100% stake in Riot Games, the makers of League. Say what you will about them, but they are the world's biggest game company, and Nintendo's partner in trying to bring the Switch to China (which has been unsuccessful so far). If Nintendo were to make another, successful break into China and were trying to appeal to the Chinese market among others, a League of Legends character would be an amazing to do so, given the game's prominence there. A League character would, in general, be a good pick to appeal to a wide variety of demographics given the ubiquitous popularity of League worldwide, and negotiations for one would be relatively simple, given the solid business relationship between Nintendo and Tencent. As for who that character would be, I'll leave that discussion to fans of the series, because I have no clue who's the most popular/widely marketed champion, what with all the movies, music groups and songs, merchandise, and more that the series has spawned. I could spend an entire essay just talking about all of the media this series has spawned, it's ridiculous.

Sakurai has previously stated that the language barrier isn't as significant of a concern as previously thought, and that support from the partner company is seemingly more important. Riot Games did make a League of Legends mod for Smash Bros. Brawl, so it seems like they'd be open to the idea of a League character in Smash. All that would need to happen would be for Nintendo to go for it, which I honestly feel is more likely than people think given League's worldwide popularity and the massive potential Nintendo has to break into new demographics and draw people into the Switch ecosystem.

A League character is one of those characters I feel in my gut is likely, and I honestly believe that people should be aware of the possibility, along with the possibility of all the characters written about in this collection, lest they get surprised like we did with a majority of Fighters Pass 1.

[/SPOILER]
That's all folks.

Amazing write up as always. Thank you.

I do have some addendums to make (and not just because I'm the primary China-watcher around here):

Farmer: The influence that Havest Moon / Story of Season has is incredibly vast as you stated, and that itself took surprising turns. Harvest Moon directly inspired Happy Farm, a Chinese social media game that saw 20 million users daily during its heyday. And Happy Farm itself inspired FarmVille. Yes, the Facebook game. Needless to say, Harvest Moon / Story of Season's indirect legacy is major, and that's a major plus.

Sakura: Originally I thought that Sakura Wars was not about mechs - instead more about Samurai with elemental powers blasting the living crud out of things. I blame the Project X Zone games for that.. and myself for being inattentive. Anyhow, Sakura Wars' major influence in Japan - one could argue that it helped SEGA survive the mid-to-late 90s - does absolutely ensure that it has a place in the conversation.

Ryza: While not super-duper popular, that shouldn't discount Ryza (or any other Atelier protagonist) really. One possible reason why Ryza in particular has been a major success for Gust is that the Ryza games have gotten solid word-of-mouth. While Atelier games in the past have evidently had staying power in Japan, Ryza in particular has been a major boon to the franchise - Koei were confident enough to release 10 games in 2 years on the Switch, after all.

League of Legends: Alright, this addendum is detailed:

Yes, the official Switch release in China's been a dud so far. With Chinese consumers mostly preffering to import the standard international Switch. One of the main reasons is the lack of officially released games - I've written about the Chinese video game ratings board SAPP here. Ring Fit's the 11th Switch game and 4th Nintendo game to see official release there - and yes, that's ****ed up. SAPP is the main culprit here: BOTW, for example, was submitted for review July 2019 and still hasn't seen official approval.

That said, I want to focus on Ring Fit for a specific reason. 6-7 months ago, when the pandemic was at its height in China Ring Fit went viral and demand for it spiked. By 363 %, and with CCTV featuring Ring Fit during a short report. Yes, Ring Fit saw incredibly strong demand everywhere, but the demand from China was particularily noted. So, Nintendo and Tencent got together and fast-tracked an official release of Ring Fit there. It was submitted this spring and saw approval in August. Tencent was confident enough in it that they actually conducted a China-exclusive Ring Fit Direct, with a targeted release September 3rd. The pre-orders? Sold so fast one of the main retailers had to suspend pre-orders after 30K. Launch day? RFA sold out to the point they needed to urgently restock.

And this was on a second release, exclusively for a Switch version that has struggled.

So what does all this have to do with LoL and Smash? Two things. First, RFA proved that one doesn't need an official release there to be noticed and possibly even go viral, although an official release helps. Undertale's a great example of this. Second, if a character that's popular in China like a LoL character is indeed in (if being the keyword) Tencent will most likely plan and go all out like they did with the Ring Fit Direct. (I'm confident that Smash will see an official release there - see the post about SAPP.)

League is not the only Western / Japanese video game character popular in China (that list is surprisingly long), but League's got one of the biggest fanbases there, only rivalled by Minecraft (when it comes to characters presumably possible for Smash).

Good luck with whatever you decide to do next. And again, thank you so much.

I feel like when discussing DLC, we forget about a lot.

may be FP6, but she is the 7th DLC character. Keep that in mind.

It doesn't feel like a DLC character (and wasn't intended to be) so that's why it's discounted often.

Also, its B moves are arguably too important for it - leading to situations where Villager / Isabelle can straight up Pocket Ptooie or Poison Cloud. And Plant can't do much about it. Whelp.

 

[PeridotGX]

Didn't Magnemite top some popularity polls for something as a meme pick? Pokken, I think?

Magnemite's a bit of a meme in Japan. That's not why I keep bringing Magneton up, I genuinely think it could have a very unique moveset.

 

[The Rhythm Theif]

Until the Fighters Pass ends, I still have my hopes high for the red hero if he doesn't get in.

This artwork of Zero using the Chain Rod just looks amazing.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Mmmh... considering that the last update did point to the Mario Direct it's very likely that is could point to some sort of Direct for next week
However, the "Sakurai presents" streams aren't branded as Direct, so they don't show up on the site, the same goes for Pokèmon Presents.

If I had to beat, this update is most likely for the next Partner Showcase, unless they decide to randomly stream a full Smash Direct or something.

Or it's an actual general Nintendo Direct that's not connected to Mario, that also has a Smash reveal.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

i think Smash Directs were for the base game only. Hero and Banjo were revealed at the E3 2019 direct that included other games, Terry was also in a general direct

general directs may be the best avenue for third parties too

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

It's most certainly a Partner Showcase. I'll buy that they're having it a bit earlier in the month before I'll buy that we're getting the Mario 35th Aniversary presentation, a Nintendo Direct Mini, and a Nintendo Direct Mini: Partner Showcase all in one month when before they could barely scrounge up a single Partner Showcase once per month for the past two months, and couldn't even manage that beforehand.

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

Alright, it’s early in the moring for me and I got nothing better to do, so it’s question time again.

What’s a character that would be cool to have but is technically already represented in some form or fashion? not necessarily Assist Trophies or spirits but moreso characters that would be kinda redundant in the roster for one reason or another.

To give my example, I would love if we got a character that represents the Pokemon TCG, but considering how similar the TCG is to the characters we have right now I don’t think it’s likely, especially not with Pokemon Trainer kinda being the defacto “represent the entire series” character.

Blue pig Ganon with the trident hasn't been spirited away, he still has a chance

 

[SharkLord]

I don't think we're getting another Partner Showcase only a couple weeks after the last one. We literally just got one; It's a bit too soon for a new one right now. Nintendo could easily just have a quick mini to remind everyone "Don't worry, we're still making games," even if most of those games are for next year.

 

[Calamitas]

Whatever we end up getting though, one thing is for certain: It's most likely not gonna be announced beforehand, and will be shadowdropped.

It's most certainly a Partner Showcase. I'll buy that they're having it a bit earlier in the month before I'll buy that we're getting the Mario 35th Aniversary presentation, a Nintendo Direct Mini, and a Nintendo Direct Mini: Partner Showcase all in one month when before they could barely scrounge up a single Partner Showcase once per month for the past two months, and couldn't even manage that beforehand.

We just had a Partner Showcase almost two weeks ago, though. I really don't think that they're gonna have another ready just yet.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

we also need to see some big third party releases for Switch announced soon. yeah we got SMTV and Ryza 2 (the latter only shown in a Japanese partner) but we need Bayo 3, NMH3, anything new from Capcom/Bandai Namco/Square Enix/any other non-"partner" third party...

speaking of didn't someone at Square Enix say some new titles would be announced "soon"? there's the SKUs too...

 

[Guynamednelson]

I think our problem is that we focus too much on what's going against a character and not enough of what's going for them, so we just shut down any topic that isn't Geno, a Gen 8 Pokemon, the merits of Byleth (Even though they've been around for like half a year now), and the question of when the next Nintendo Direct will happen.

"Reimu hails from arguably the biggest indie game series, and Touhou has a massive about if fanworks, to the point that every song has-" JAPAN EXCLUSIVE (Even though there's twelve Touhou games on Steam), DISQUALIFIED!
"Koei-Tecmo was blindsided by Ryza's popularity and has been trying to push her more often lately-" NOT RYU HAYABUSA, DISQUALIFIED!
"Professor Layton is the best-selling Level-5 game and is hugely popular in Europe-" I DON'T KNOW OR CARE, DISQUALIFIED!
I get that just about everyone has some sort of drawback, but it would do a lot to dig deeper evaluate their strengths as well instead of jumping straight to "Not happening."

Ironically, as much as we say the floodgates have opened wide now, they've actually needed to be reopened during this speculation season.

We needed to prove that we wouldn't just get the biggest stars in gaming.
We needed to prove Banjo wasn't just a special exception for Nintendo 64 fans.
We needed to prove that first parties could get in and REALLY needed them to prove that their goal for each fighter wasn't a 100% approval rating.
We needed to prove they could be spirits (base game ones at least) and that the first-parties could be at least a couple years old.
And due to factors like indies getting Mii costumes at best, Min Min not being Spring Man, and people acting like Min Min will stick out like a sore thumb from the rest of this pass, we still haven't truly fully opened the floodgates for speculation.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Ironically, as much as we say the floodgates have opened wide now, they've actually needed to be reopened during this speculation season.

We needed to prove that we wouldn't just get the biggest stars in gaming.
We needed to prove Banjo wasn't just a special exception for Nintendo 64 fans.
We needed to prove that first parties could get in and REALLY needed them to prove that their goal for each fighter wasn't a 100% approval rating.
We needed to prove they could be spirits (base game ones at least) and that the first-parties could be at least a couple years old.
And due to factors like indies getting Mii costumes at best, Min Min not being Spring Man, and people acting like Min Min will stick out like a sore thumb from the rest of this pass, we still haven't truly fully opened the floodgates for speculation.

before Min Min I HATED that some people were so high and mighty that "ALL Spirits Deconfirm. they wouldn't give someone a png with an arbitrary gameplay function only to become playable later lol." then they were knocked off their high horse and never seen again

2020 may have been a crappy year but that was my highlight imo

 

[Mushroomguy12]

then they were knocked off their high horse and never seen again

They got punched into their own bars.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

And due to factors like indies getting Mii costumes at best, Min Min not being Spring Man, and people acting like Min Min will stick out like a sore thumb from the rest of this pass, we still haven't truly fully opened the floodgates for speculation.

Yup. We'll still need someone to prove that:

• 1st parties don't have to have some sort of promotional opportunity to get in.
• Assist Trophies can get in.
• DLC Spirits can get in.
• Indies can get in.
• Banjo & Kazooie wasn't just a special exception, and more western characters could get in.
• Violent characters can get in.
• Sexy characters can get in...because Mai, who is almost half-naked, is comparable to someone with just a short skirt or a low-cut top...obviously.
  • And of course, Bayonetta doesn't count because at least her outfit is for good boys and girls of all ages. Never mind the sheer material around her butt.

I honestly don't think the first 3 will be proven, and the last 3 are a little silly. Indies could go either way.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Magnemite's a bit of a meme in Japan. That's not why I keep bringing Magneton up, I genuinely think it could have a very unique moveset.

Why have just Magneton when you can have Magnezone? You could call upon Magnemites and Magnetons to protect you! It'd be awesome.

Ironically, as much as we say the floodgates have opened wide now, they've actually needed to be reopened during this speculation season.

We needed to prove that we wouldn't just get the biggest stars in gaming.
We needed to prove Banjo wasn't just a special exception for Nintendo 64 fans.
We needed to prove that first parties could get in and REALLY needed them to prove that their goal for each fighter wasn't a 100% approval rating.
We needed to prove they could be spirits (base game ones at least) and that the first-parties could be at least a couple years old.
And due to factors like indies getting Mii costumes at best, Min Min not being Spring Man, and people acting like Min Min will stick out like a sore thumb from the rest of this pass, we still haven't truly fully opened the floodgates for speculation.

And we need Geno to prove that no matter how insignificant you are to the series, you have as good of a chance as anyone to get in.

 

[RealLuigisWearPink]

Alright, it’s early in the moring for me and I got nothing better to do, so it’s question time again.

What’s a character that would be cool to have but is technically already represented in some form or fashion? not necessarily Assist Trophies or spirits but moreso characters that would be kinda redundant in the roster for one reason or another.

To give my example, I would love if we got a character that represents the Pokemon TCG, but considering how similar the TCG is to the characters we have right now I don’t think it’s likely, especially not with Pokemon Trainer kinda being the defacto “represent the entire series” character.

Costume Mario who switches movesets between Tanooki, Hammer and Frog variants. Or you know, Paper Mario

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Nintendo Direct Speculation |OT13-2| lighting strikes twice OT

So we now have "leaks" behind paywall, "great"...

www.resetera.com

this guy's claiming general direct on the 9th. is it just speculation or does he have info?

 

[Idon]

we need Geno to prove that no matter how insignificant you are to the series, you have as good of a chance as anyone to get in.

Did a literal plant on the ground not do that already?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Did a literal plant on the ground not do that already?

Doesn't count: It was supposed to be on the base roster and was a free early purchase bonus.

EDIT: It's a bit of a silly way of putting it, but I do agree with the line of thinking in that Piranha Plant isn't exactly a main DLC pick, and I don't think it was chosen on the same standards that the rest of the DLC is.
EDIT EDIT: Also, one could argue that Piranha Plant is more important to the series than Geno is because it's a recognizable enemy that appears in most games, while Geno is a not-so recognizable secondary protagonist from a single game.

 

[SharkLord]

before Min Min I HATED that some people were so high and mighty that "ALL Spirits Deconfirm. they wouldn't give someone a png with an arbitrary gameplay function only to become playable later lol." then they were knocked off their high horse and never seen again

2020 may have been a crappy year but that was my highlight imo

Spirits used to deconfirm characters. Used.

They were meant to replace Trophies while being easier to implement and actually having a gameplay purpose, and they most likely weren't made with DLC in mind. Sakurai probably thought "They won't be getting in now, so I'll give them a consolation prize." The thing is, two years was probably enough to make him reconsider his stance, backed by the fact that ARMS' major players were Spirits already. And lo and behold, Min Min.

Spirits were explicitly stated to be expanding the crossover beyond the fighters, but that was for the base game. Obviously they're back on the table now, but they were a deconfirm back then. It was silly to stick to that rule and treat it as solid and unmoving, but it didn't do you any favors to deny what was explicitly stated.

But the past is the past and we can't change that, so eh.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Did a literal plant on the ground not do that already?

I'm talking more in the lines of "You only appeared in one game that is more than 20 years old" kind of insignificant.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Spirits used to deconfirm characters. Used.

They were meant to replace Trophies while being easier to implement and actually having a gameplay purpose, and they most likely weren't made with DLC in mind. Sakurai probably thought "They won't be getting in now, so I'll give them a consolation prize." The thing is, two years was probably enough to make him reconsider his stance, backed by the fact that ARMS' major players were Spirits already. And lo and behold, Min Min.

Spirits were explicitly stated to be expanding the crossover beyond the fighters, but that was for the base game. Obviously they're back on the table now, but they were a deconfirm back then. It was silly to stick to that rule and treat it as solid and unmoving, but it didn't do you any favors to deny what was explicitly stated.

But the past is the past and we can't change that, so eh.

They never explicitly stated that they disconfirmed like they did with Assist Trophies though. I don't think they ever disconfirmed characters.

 

[N3ON]

Ironically, as much as we say the floodgates have opened wide now, they've actually needed to be reopened during this speculation season.

We needed to prove that we wouldn't just get the biggest stars in gaming.
We needed to prove Banjo wasn't just a special exception for Nintendo 64 fans.
We needed to prove that first parties could get in and REALLY needed them to prove that their goal for each fighter wasn't a 100% approval rating.
We needed to prove they could be spirits (base game ones at least) and that the first-parties could be at least a couple years old.
And due to factors like indies getting Mii costumes at best, Min Min not being Spring Man, and people acting like Min Min will stick out like a sore thumb from the rest of this pass, we still haven't truly fully opened the floodgates for speculation.

Joker accomplished what you're claiming required both Banjo and Terry.

If anything Banjo's accomplishment was proving a competitor character could get included. Or a western IP.

Also some of these things never needed proving in the first place. I don't recall anyone saying Banjo was some token N64 addition or that every addition was due to appeasing the fanbase prior to Byleth. Or that they'd only take the newest first-parties prior to Min Min. And, by the way, Min Min is still a pretty new character all things considered.

You're creating opinions that, if they were even held, were only held by a very small number of people.

Nintendo Direct Speculation |OT13-2| lighting strikes twice OT

So we now have "leaks" behind paywall, "great"...

www.resetera.com

this guy's claiming general direct on the 9th. is it just speculation or does he have info?

He's just referencing a random tweet that says one's coming on the ninth.

I'm talking more in the lines of "You only appeared in one game that is more than 20 years old" kind of insignificant.

And won't it be lovely if and when Geno shows up that people think any old, minor, one-off choice has as good a chance as any character, somehow looking past the sporadic but overall sustained demand Geno has had for a decade and a half, which would be the thing that actually got him included, and which no other similar candidate has.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Joker accomplished what you're claiming required both Banjo and Terry.

If anything Banjo's accomplishment was proving a competitor character could get included. Or a western IP.

Also some of these things never needed proving in the first place. I don't recall anyone saying Banjo was some token N64 addition or that every addition was due to appeasing the fanbase prior to Byleth. Or that they'd only take the newest first-parties prior to Min Min. And, by the way, Min Min is still a pretty new character all things considered.

You're creating opinions that, if they were even held, were only held by a very small number of people.


He's just referencing a random tweet that says one's coming on the ninth.


And won't it be lovely if and when Geno shows up that people think any old, minor, one-off choice has as good a chance as any character, somehow looking past the sporadic but overall sustained demand Geno has had for a decade and a half, which would be the thing that actually got him included, and which no other similar candidate has.

link to the tweet? wanna see who wrote said tweet

 

[SKX31]

before Min Min I HATED that some people were so high and mighty that "ALL Spirits Deconfirm. they wouldn't give someone a png with an arbitrary gameplay function only to become playable later lol." then they were knocked off their high horse and never seen again

2020 may have been a crappy year but that was my highlight imo

As someone who leaned towards that opinion: yeah that sucked. At the time it seemed that it was plausible since Spirits have certain defined roles within the game.

Eh, I'm not fussed about that not preventing Spirit upgrades. As for Spirit upgrades themselves, I'm personally neutral to them. There's a lot of characters that would be cool to see upgraded (comes with the territory when there are 1400+ Spirits at the moment), but I do personally prefer wholly original content just by virtue of it being new stuff. Personal bias.

Alright, it’s early in the moring for me and I got nothing better to do, so it’s question time again.

What’s a character that would be cool to have but is technically already represented in some form or fashion? not necessarily Assist Trophies or spirits but moreso characters that would be kinda redundant in the roster for one reason or another.

To give my example, I would love if we got a character that represents the Pokemon TCG, but considering how similar the TCG is to the characters we have right now I don’t think it’s likely, especially not with Pokemon Trainer kinda being the defacto “represent the entire series” character.

If Sakurai ever decided to declone Ganondorf (which I personally wouldn't mind at all), his moveset should remain.

No, not as Black Shadow (he could have a semi clone moveset or an original moveset instead) but this:

 

[N3ON]

link to the tweet? wanna see who wrote said tweet

Well it is literally on the page right before the one linked.

Spoiler

First and possibly the most important slither of information I've received so far would be that there is definitely going to be a GENERAL #NintendoDirect on the 9th of September, mark my words, I wouldn't lie to you. #Nintendo #NintendoLeaks #Zelda #Mario pic.twitter.com/OnTboz5Unn

— Zeeko (@ZeekoTreecko) August 29, 2020

 

[SharkLord]

They never explicitly stated that they disconfirmed like they did with Assist Trophies though. I don't think they ever disconfirmed characters.

They were stated to be for characters who couldn't make the roster. If that wasn't enough, fighters got Fighter Spirits instead of normal Spirits that could be used in battle.

Around the 8:00 mark, Sakurai flat-out says "We wanted a way to enjoy characters other than fighters." The fighters were also the only ones to keep their bodies. There was a clear divide between fighters and Spirits.

Think I'll drop out of the argument here to avoid dragging us back into another cyclic argument. Someone bring up a new character to discuss that we don't talk about regularly please; Let's nip the return of the Spirits argument in the bud and do something new for once.

 

[Guynamednelson]

They never explicitly stated that they disconfirmed like they did with Assist Trophies though. I don't think they ever disconfirmed characters.

Seems more like they planned spirits for the base game around who wouldn't be playable in it or FP1, and event spirits around who isn't in FP2.

 

[MooMew64]

Mario 35th Anniversary Direct Part...2!

They did say they'd talk about 3D World's new content at a later date...

Nah lol it's probably the next Partner Showcase if it means anything.

 

[RealLuigisWearPink]

If a retro character snuck on this pass, who’d you want it to be?

Personally still holding out for Muddy Mole to happen one day

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Or that they'd only take the newest first-parties prior to Min Min. And, by the way, Min Min is still a pretty new character all things considered.

I think it was speaking on the idea that a character needed to have some sort of "staying power" in order to be added, though I think it was/is a sentiment directed at indies specifically, and now that I've considered it for more than 2 seconds I don't get it at all.

If a retro character snuck on this pass, who’d you want it to be?

Personally still holding out for Muddy Mole to happen one day

It would almost certainly be Ryu. I don't think there are any other retro franchises that would be considered, though I suppose I could be forgetting/overlooking something.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Yup. We'll still need someone to prove that:

• 1st parties don't have to have some sort of promotional opportunity to get in.
• Assist Trophies can get in.
• DLC Spirits can get in.
• Indies can get in.
• Banjo & Kazooie wasn't just a special exception, and more western characters could get in.
• Violent characters can get in.
• Sexy characters can get in...because Mai, who is almost half-naked, is comparable to someone with just a short skirt or a low-cut top...obviously.
  • And of course, Bayonetta doesn't count because at least her outfit is for good boys and girls of all ages. Never mind the sheer material around her butt.

I honestly don't think the first 3 will be proven, and the last 3 are a little silly. Indies could go either way.

We could wait until a character forces us to admit the possibility. Or, we could accept that we don't have conclusive evidence to rule out these characters and discuss them anyway, both to avoid being blindsided and just for fun.

But, nah, what does everyone think of Crash? I'm sure there's plenty new to be said!

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

But, nah, what does everyone think of Crash? I'm sure there's plenty new to be said!

0 chance. Western characters aren't happening and Banjo & Kazooie are exceptions.

 

[N3ON]

Considering how frequently some dumb "rule" gets broken (as evidenced by people listing the majority of the DLC as having broken down some barrier), people who are waiting for proof are doing it backwards. Just assume the character can get in until they're proven that they can't. There are lots of characters that won't get in, but I believe there are very few characters that actually can't get in.

Though to be fair, most people aren't really prohibited by the "rules" anyway, because nine out of ten times, the "rule" doesn't actually exist. It's usually just one or two people who will invoke some fictional "rule" whenever a certain suggestion gets broached.

I think it was speaking on the idea that a character needed to have some sort of "staying power" in order to be added, though I think it was/is a sentiment directed at indies specifically, and now that I've considered it for more than 2 seconds I don't get it at all.

I don't think that's been a sentiment levelled at first-parties for a very long time. Not since Smash 4 skewed things very heavily towards recency, at least.

But I have heard it for indies, that's true enough. Though I don't agree with it. And I think Smash disproves it as well, considering the indies with the biggest roles have all been less than five years old when given those roles. And the fact that Min Min obviously isn't indie.

With the indies I think it very much comes down to impact and general popularity. I mean Cuphead was what? two years old without having even been on the Switch for a year before he got a costume, spirit event, and song. And now it's the indie series with the most content.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

welp

This info has changed since the mario direct just for clarification as one of my sources claimed there wasn’t gonna be a 9th sept direct, and instead claimed there was gonna be a mario direct on the 3rd, so I don’t believe this is correct anymore

— Zeeko (@ZeekoTreecko) September 5, 2020

guess we'll wait to see if he's true or not but i guess treat the 9th with skepticism

 

[7NATOR]

Hey So I need to ask a question

So I Know Travis Touchdown is kind of a Common Prediction. People say he might be getting the Bayonetta treatment (though I think the scenraios are different though)

I need to ask, What would Travis do in terms of Moveset that's not just Swinging his Sword around. I've watched footage of NMH1 and NMH2 from countdown lists from back in the day. Most of what he does is Swing his Sword, though I know he also has Wrestling, and can transform into a Tiger. All of the movesets I've seen for him mostly revolve around Swinging Sword

I believe Travis Strike Backs was stated to give more material to Travis in an Inclusion for Smash Bros, and he has that Death Glove thing, though I don't know what that exactly does. yes...