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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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ChunkySlugger72

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Because this is the speculation thread, I wanted to make a case for my most wanted because why the hell not (and no, I'm not saying this character is likely because they aren't at all.) If you think your character is a pipe dream, this guy is really a pipe dream. Maybe some discussion can be generated from this post, because whenever this character is brought up. they're almost instantly dismissed, which is fair, but I still feel an urge to make this post. I'm talking about non other than my ol' pal:



What's in Conker's Favor?
  • He's arguably Rare's go-to character after Banjo.
    • I'm not discrediting Battletoads, don't worry. It's just that wherever Banjo appears, Conker is 90% of the time alongside him in Rare/Xbox promotional materials.
  • Conker's brand image is trusted enough by Microsoft to promote their products.
    • Conker has been used by Microsoft to promote both Project Spark (getting an inkling of a new adventure as well as an HD render), while simultaneously appearing to promote the Microsoft HoloLens in Young Conker (2016). Young Conker specifically is pretty hated, but it's still an example of Microsoft utilizing Conker's image in recent times.
  • Conker could play as a fun mix-up/wild-card character; he'd be unique.
    • There's a common notion that all Conker does is drink and swear, but that's actually far from the truth. Aside from few and far between cutscenes, Conker is only playable while drunk in two levels. In every other level, he's incredibly nimble, uses a trusty frying pan, slingshot, guns, a sword, and can even ride/attack using an anthropomorphic pitchfork! Conker can work perfectly fine with a moveset that captures his likeness even without M-rated gags. But his coolest and most iconic feature: context sensitive!
      • Context Sensitive: In Bad Fur Day, this move basically allowed Conker to tap into the powers of cartoon logic. Depending on the situation, Conker do a number of things, from turning himself into a falling anvil, whipping out a rocket launcher, creating a dynamite trap. A neutral B that changes depending on the circumstances would be a cool, never before seen feature in Smash.
  • Conker still receives merchandise alongside Banjo.
    • Companies such as First 4 Figures and Totaku have recently released high quality figurines of Conker, which once again goes to show that Conker, in some regard, is believed to be marketable/recognizable by someone at Microsoft/Rare. Here are pictures of the figurines in case anyone wanted to see:
  • Conker can be arguably considered a Nintendo character in a sorta-kinda similar way to Banjo (a stretch, I know)
    • Outside of Banjo, Conker is the only playable character in Diddy Kong Racing to have a spin-off franchise. And although this is a major, major stretch, I thought it'd be cool to share that Conker appeared in the German Club Nintendo comics "N-Gang" from 1999-2000, alongside other historical video game characters like Mega Man and Bomberman.
  • Finally, Conker would bring with him lots of new music, spirits, and creative alternate costume choices:
    • Aside from the Great Mighty Poo song, there's lots of great numbers from the score of Bad Fur Day that would be great to expanding music of Smash, like the iconic 'Windy' theme that many have heard at some point even if they haven't played the game ('Rock Solid' is one of the best tracks in gaming history, just saying.) Of course, there are notable characters, enemies, and bosses that could easily become spirits. And Conker also has a variety of outfits from Bad Fur Day/Live and Reloaded, alongside copying color palettes from existing characters for a variety of alt-costume choices. Here's what I had in mind:

What isn't in Conker's favor?
  • When it comes to choosing a second Rare rep for Smash, next to no one wants Conker compared to other fanbases.
    • Battletoads, Joanna Dark, hell, even James Bond from GoldenEye 64 are more wanted than Conker. It's not that nobody likes Conker or doesn't want him anywhere near Smash Bros, most just see him and think "Smash? Yeah, that's never happening, moving on."
  • He has virtually no presence in Japan.
    • Bad Fur Day never released in Japan, and I'm not sure if Live and Reloaded ever did. I'm sure there are some fans from Japan, like with any character, but nothing even close to substantial enough to merit even an eyebrow raise.
  • Chris Seavor says it's probably never happening.
    • I spoke a few times with the director of Bad Fur Day, Chris Seavor, on Twitter about the prospect of Conker joining Smash. He told me he'd be down for it to happen and he'd come back to voice the squirrel, but in his own words, it just isn't likely to happen.
  • Most damning of all, Conker hails from the South Park of video games.
    • Lots of M-rated characters are considered 'legitimate' picks to join Smash, but Conker's case is different. He doesn't come from an FPS game, or a beat-em-up. He comes from a game that references alcohol, drugs, sex, contains swearing, crude humor that has aged poorly (in today's context), and a boss that is a literal pile of feces singing opera. Not exactly the ideal candidate Nintendo is looking for (although Nintendo of America did release official Conker's Bad Fur Day condoms at a promotional event lol.)

This post isn't to be taken too seriously, I just wanted to see if any discussion could be generated from it. A lot of people instantly dismiss Conker because "a drunk squirrel can't be given proper justice in Smash!" but I really do think there's more to the character than just that. All of Conker's abilities and weapons are kid-friendly, and even the ones that aren't (such as guns and rocket launchers) are already in Smash. The only aspects that are legitimately against Conker in my opinion is his lack of presence in Japan, and his source material. The character, by himself, can be easily worked around to fit the ESRB rating of Smash.

I'd take a Mii Costume, even some spirits. I know many view Bad Fur Day as a disgusting, low-hanging fruit game, but to me and many others, the game is an immensely fun and creative spin on the 3D platforming genre, one that gave the middle finger to Super Mario 64 and Banjo-Kazooie to deliver a unique experience that will likely never be replicated in gaming again. Although some humor is face-palming inducing, a good amount was subtle and very clever, and all the movie references were awesome to see!

Just wish this poor guy got some acknowledgement. Give me a Conker spirit, and I'm good to go!
You pretty much hit the nail on the head regarding Conker when he becomes topic of discussion, It's not that no one wants him, It's just that most people are trying to be realistic when it comes Smash speculation.

I'm a big fan of most things Rare and would absolutely love Conker to join in Smash, Most Including myself unfortunately don't see it happening (No Surprise), I personally see Master Chief as the next most likely Microsoft rep (Who I'm cool with) But if for whatever reason he does makes it in then you bet your ass I would pay and download him the second he drops.

Banjo-Kazooie is the only character I bought so far in the fighter pass and I would love for Conker to join his old Rare buddies Diddy Kong, DK and King K. Rool in Super Smash Bros Ultimate.
 
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Cosmic77

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No September releases isn't exactly a shocker. Origami King and Pikmin 3 Deluxe were announced roughly two months in advance, so I'm not sure why anyone was genuinely expecting them to say, "Surprise! We have a somewhat significant game releasing in stores two weeks from now!"

I still think we have one, maybe two more releases for 2020 that are set for November and/or December. Not sure what those games would be, but I don't think it's time to call 2020 a bust just yet.
 

SharkLord

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No September releases isn't exactly a shocker. Origami King and Pikmin 3 Deluxe were announced roughly two months in advance, so I'm not sure why anyone was genuinely expecting them to say, "Surprise! We have a somewhat significant game releasing in stores two weeks from now!"

I still think we have one, maybe two more releases for 2020 that are set for November and/or December. Not sure what those games would be, but I don't think it's time to call 2020 a bust just yet.
It probably doesn't change much, but we could get a small, free-to-play game like Super Kirby Clash on the same day as it's announcement. Probably won't mean much, but hey, at least it's something.
 

Dalek_Kolt

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Dumb thought experiment, suppose the newcomers were revealed in reverse order (Min Min, Byleth, Terry, Banjo-Kazooie, Hero, Joker, Piranha Plant, Incineroar, Ken, King K. Rool, Dark Samus, Chrom, Richter, Simon, Ridley, Daisy, Inkling). How does this change their reveal trailers?

There would be small things like K. Rool not showing up in Incineroar's trailer, but also the whole "Rivals" montage in Banjo and K. Rool's trailer would probably need to either be scrapped or reformatted completely to make sense.
 
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Rie Sonomura

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Dumb thought experiment, suppose the newcomers were revealed in reverse order (Min Min, Byleth, Terry, Banjo-Kazooie, Hero, Joker, Piranha Plant, Incineroar, Ken, King K. Rool, Dark Samus, Chrom, Richter, Simon, Ridley, Daisy, Inkling). How does this change their reveal trailers?

There would be small things like K. Rool not showing up in Incineroar's trailer, but also the whole "Rivals" montage in Banjo and K. Rool's trailer would probably need to either be scrapped or reformatted completely to make sense.
Hero would have to be changed completely to not spoil World of Light lmao
 

cashregister9

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Dumb thought experiment, suppose the newcomers were revealed in reverse order (Min Min, Byleth, Terry, Banjo-Kazooie, Hero, Joker, Piranha Plant, Incineroar, Ken, King K. Rool, Dark Samus, Chrom, Richter, Simon, Ridley, Daisy, Inkling). How does this change their reveal trailers?

There would be small things like K. Rool not showing up in Incineroar's trailer, but also the whole "Rivals" montage in Banjo and K. Rool's trailer would probably need to either be scrapped or reformatted completely to make sense.
Min Min and Terry would definitely be in Kencineroar (Assuming Ken and Incineroar get revealed together)
 
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SharkLord

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Is that insider saying no September releases to be trusted?
NateDrake? We know he has insider info, but after the August 28th debacle, it's best we take his works with a grain of salt. From what I can gather, he knows what is happening, but not when, and last time he ended up either jumping to conclusions or giving outdated info. Still, even without Nate, Japan's "Announce things two months in advance to preorder" law means we won't be getting anything beyond small free-to-play games until November.
 

PeridotGX

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Dumb thought experiment, suppose the newcomers were revealed in reverse order (Min Min, Byleth, Terry, Banjo-Kazooie, Hero, Joker, Piranha Plant, Incineroar, Ken, King K. Rool, Dark Samus, Chrom, Richter, Simon, Ridley, Daisy, Inkling). How does this change their reveal trailers?

There would be small things like K. Rool not showing up in Incineroar's trailer, but also the whole "Rivals" montage in Banjo and K. Rool's trailer would probably need to either be scrapped or reformatted completely to make sense.
:ultminmin- Duh, of course there's gonna be an Arms character. Pretty surprising they're going with Min Min, and she was the first reveal over someone like the Inklings (who are a lock)
:ultbyleth:- Why is a completely unique character branded as a Peach clone? And seriously, FE character 7 for a game that won't even release for a year?
:ult_terry:- Who? Verge was lying, this isn't Ridley.
:ultbanjokazooie:- Finally! Weird that Banjo was added before Ridley or K.Rool though. Weird that the Bloody Tears fiasco was all a hoax.
:ulthero: - Why is he being branded as an echo of Banjo?
:ultjoker:- Why is he being branded as an echo of Roy?
:ultpiranha:- What the ****, but also why is it being branded as a clone of Samus?
:ultincineroar: - That's a shame, I wanted Decidueye. Guess Verge was right.
:ultken:- Thats it? The only reveal in the direct is a clone? But apparently he's unique?
:ultisabelle:- Cool, but why is she branded as a Ryu echo instead of a Villager one?
:ultkrool:- Finally, a good newcomer!
:ultdarksamus:- Wait, is the first Metroid character in a decade a mere clone? WHY IS DSAMUS A CLONE BUT NOT THE SAMUS ECHO?
:ultchrom:- The first paid DLC character is a Fire Emblem clone? Why?
:ultrichter:- Guess we were gonna get a Castlevania character after all. Weird it was Richter
:ultsimon:- The third DLC fighter is a clone of the last character? Full price?
:ultridley:- This is fine.
:ultdaisy:- The final character is a Peach clone?
:ultinkling:- weird that the winner of the ARMS guessing game was a Splatoon character, but honestly this is well overdue. I feel like things would make more sence if the reveal order was swapped.
 

MooMew64

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I still don't know why people don't bring up Steve as a likely Microsoft character.

I find him significantly more likely than Master Chief.
Chief has established himself as one of the new "never ever" picks to the fandom ever since Banjo got added, and because of that, I think he just gets more traction than Steve in discussion because of the hype factor surrounding him.

Honestly, Minecraft IMO has the edge in chances given how wide its appeal is and how it is a super good fit for the Nintendo audience. It's also really dang huge and that's not too bad a help for it either.
 

DarthEnderX

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what a minute, if that breaks NDA, wouldn't that mean it real.
Nah. Cause it could be a thing where it's like "The reason I know this is fake is because I already know Hayabusa is in, and he's not in this leak."

Objectively speaking, one thing that points to the likelihood of Phoenix and Layton both being on the Pass is that they'd be the hypest dual reveal ever. You'd have to be dead inside to pass that up.
Meh.
 
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SharkLord

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Alright, today I present to you a character that has very low choices but would be cool as all ****.

I present to you the Beheaded from Dead Cells. You know about Dead Cells, right? It's that cool roguelite-metroidvania indie game. Unlikely as heck, but I think he'd be cool in the alternate timeline where he actually has a feasible chance. How about we discuss someone unlikely for a change, instead of going back to Geno, a Gen 8 Pokemon, and the lack of direct?

Also I kinda want to give his support thread more attention, s please go and check that out.
 

Miles of SmashWiki

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I still don't know why people don't bring up Steve as a likely Microsoft character.

I find him significantly more likely than Master Chief.
Minecraft seems way more likely to get the Mii Costume treatment than a full fighter slot, in my opinion. Not that they couldn't go for a full original moveset, but I don't see it as particularly likely. Even a standalone stage is more likely, I feel.
 

Ben Holt

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You might be right. We assume that Spirit Event series are off the table but make an exception for Pokémon because it's so big. It may be as simple as the Sword and Shield event being the death blow.
I just think that 10 Pokémon is enough and there's no need for a new one as DLC. Lol.
 

Ben Holt

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Yeah he said it three FE characters ago.
To be fair, Awakening and Three Houses both broke sales records. Had it not been for promotional picks, our Fire Emblem cast would be Marth, Ike, Chrom, and Byleth. Maybe Lucina for an easy Echo.
Roy was promotional in the greatest sense of the word; Melee was literally his debut.
Corrin was confirmed to be a direct shill from Nintendo.
Robin was chosen because Chrom was too similar to Marth and Ike.
Lucina was confirmed to be an extra with Dr. Mario and Dark Pit due to extra development time.
Only Marth, Ike, Chrom, and Byleth had genuine popularity, as those are the protagonists of the most important entries in the series.
Inversely, the best selling Pokémon game is still RBY, so we don't need a new Mon representing every generation. Also, Pokémon is so popular that it doesn't need Smash to push sales. So the comparison to Fire Emblem is questionable at best.
 
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Cosmic77

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It's not what people want to hear, but until Master Chief gets just as much support as Banjo to make him feel like an obvious frontrunner, Nintendo has every reason to want Minecraft over Halo.

Ever since Minecraft was released on Nintendo consoles, it's been fairly popular in Japan. Halo has been one of the more popular Xbox games, if that honestly means anything in a region where a three-digit number in weekly sales is good.

To be fair, Awakening and Three Houses both broke sales records. Had it not been for promotional picks, our Fire Emblem cast would be Marth, Ike, Chrom, and Byleth. Maybe Lucina for an easy Echo.
The best selling Pokémon game is still RBY, so we don't need a new Mon representing every generation.
I don't think this logic is very sound. The only games that have higher sales numbers than SwSh at this point are the first two Gens. If we waited for a game to surpass RBY in sales, then we'd have never gotten Pichu, Lucario, Greninja, or Incineroar.

There's more to games than breaking sales records.
 

Ben Holt

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It's not what people want to hear, but until Master Chief gets just as much support as Banjo to make him feel like an obvious frontrunner, Nintendo has every reason to want Minecraft over Halo.

Ever since Minecraft was released on Nintendo consoles, it's been fairly popular in Japan. Halo has been one of the more popular Xbox games, if that honestly means anything in a region where a three-digit number in weekly sales is good.



I don't think this logic is very sound. The only games that have higher sales numbers than SwSh at this point are the first two Gens. If we waited for a game to surpass RBY in sales, then we'd have never gotten Pichu, Lucario, Greninja, or Incineroar.

There's more to games than breaking sales records.
This is why I'd rather Nintendo wait to gauge a Pokémon's staying power before putting in a random new 'Mon for every Smash game.
Pikachu, Charizard, Mewtwo, Lucario, and Greninja seem to have stayed popular, but Jigglypuff and Incineroar are "that Smash Bros. Pokémon".
 

dream1ng

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To be fair, Awakening and Three Houses both broke sales records. Had it not been for promotional picks, our Fire Emblem cast would be Marth, Ike, Chrom, and Byleth. Maybe Lucina for an easy Echo.
The best selling Pokémon game is still RBY, so we don't need a new Mon representing every generation.
None of this makes much sense. You conflate expectations with necessity, when it doesn't work like that. You mention how Sakurai has raised overrepresentation, when one, he never has for Pokemon, and two, the series he has still receives regular additions. You're overlooking that Byleth was a promotional pick, chosen before the game even had a chance to break sales records. As would a Gen 8 addition, considering when the FP2 characters were likely chosen. Which invalidates the concept of its commercial performance, even though you're holding up one of the most successful games in the Pokemon series to the most successful Pokemon game, when by that logic the characters should've stopped after Gen 1.

I think you just don't want a Gen 8, which is fine, but are using any reasoning at hand to justify why we wouldn't get one, which has resulted in some goalposts being moved and some less than tenable points being proposed.

"Need" is not part of the equation, and hasn't been part of the equation for most bigger series for a while. "Want" is the pivotal factor, and TPC generally wants promotion in Smash, so while I don't particularly want a Gen 8 either, it's not an outcome I would reasonably discount.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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(although Nintendo of America did release official Conker's Bad Fur Day condoms at a promotional event lol.)
...
...
...

But...Why though?

This is why I'd rather Nintendo wait to gauge a Pokémon's staying power before putting in a random new 'Mon for every Smash game.
Pikachu, Charizard, Mewtwo, Lucario, and Greninja seem to have stayed popular, but Jigglypuff and Incineroar are "that Smash Bros. Pokémon".
To be fair, Incineroar is the only Pokémon they've added that has never been popular (yes I know it's currently in OU but that doesn't mean people actually like the Pokémon; it's just meta relevant).

EDIT: Well, this probably applies to Ivysaur as well since middle stage Pokémon almost never get any love. Honestly, the only middle stage Pokémon I can think that people even find notable are Pikachu, Dusclops, and Bayleef.
 
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Swamp Sensei

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Minecraft seems way more likely to get the Mii Costume treatment than a full fighter slot, in my opinion. Not that they couldn't go for a full original moveset, but I don't see it as particularly likely. Even a standalone stage is more likely, I feel.
Why?

Please explain, because I don't see the logic of this.
 

Schnee117

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To be fair, Incineroar is the only Pokémon they've added that has never been popular (yes I know it's currently in OU but that doesn't mean people actually like the Pokémon; it's just meta relevant).
I distinctly recall Incineroar doing rather well, not necessarily number 1 but often in or around the top 10 for Gen 7.
 

Ben Holt

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...
...
...

But...Why though?


To be fair, Incineroar is the only Pokémon they've added that has never been popular (yes I know it's currently in OU but that doesn't mean people actually like the Pokémon; it's just meta relevant).

EDIT: Well, this probably applies to Ivysaur as well since middle stage Pokémon almost never get any love. Honestly, the only middle stage Pokémon I can think that people even find notable are Pikachu, Dusclops, and Bayleef.
Not sure if anyone's old enough to remember this, but Marill was really popular during late Gen 1 and throughout Gen 2 and early Gen 3 (when it get a pre-evo in Azurill).
 

Swamp Sensei

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To be fair, Incineroar is the only Pokémon they've added that has never been popular (yes I know it's currently in OU but that doesn't mean people actually like the Pokémon; it's just meta relevant).
Didn't Incineroar do really well in Japanese polls?

12th out of the whole generation is pretty good.


This is starting to sound like the "nobody likes Lucario" stuff I heard after Brawl.
 

dream1ng

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Incineroar isn't unpopular, but I don't exactly think it would have the lasting appeal that would get it included if Pokemon operated as many other series within Smash do.

If we were to take Pokemon who were fairly popular within their gen when their gen was contemporary, you'd have a fairly long list, and therefore those listed wouldn't be overly remarkable, all things considered.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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I distinctly recall Incineroar doing rather well, not necessarily number 1 but often in or around the top 10 for Gen 7.
This is starting to sound like the "nobody likes Lucario" stuff I heard after Brawl.
Incineroar isn't unpopular...
Ya' know, you guys keep telling me this, and I always forget. I guess the highly negative first impressions I was seeing stuck with me more.

EDIT: This and the Super Smash Bros. community in particular despised it.

Not sure if anyone's old enough to remember this, but Marill was really popular during late Gen 1 and throughout Gen 2 and early Gen 3 (when it get a pre-evo in Azurill).
Ah yes, good ol' Pikablue. I think Marill has one of the few lines where all of its stages are notable in some way, with Marill's mystery, Azumarill's Huge Power, and Azuril looking really sad in all of its artwork for some reason.
 
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dream1ng

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Ya' know, you guys keep telling me this, and I always forget. I guess the highly negative first impressions I was seeing stuck with me more.
For whatever it's worth, the popularity results which are in Incineroar's favor tend to come from Japan and conflict a bit with what the sentiment online was at the time of those results breaking.

Again, that doesn't mean it was unpopular, it's just more that the popularity was never overly first-hand.
 

Swamp Sensei

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I guess the highly negative first impressions I was seeing stuck with me more.
Negative voices are louder.

We're physiologically set up this way. It's why it takes three compliments to negate the negative feelings of an insult.
 

Ben Holt

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None of this makes much sense. You conflate expectations with necessity, when it doesn't work like that. You mention how Sakurai has raised overrepresentation, when one, he never has for Pokemon, and two, the series he has still receives regular additions. You're overlooking that Byleth was a promotional pick, chosen before the game even had a chance to break sales records. As would a Gen 8 addition, considering when the FP2 characters were likely chosen. Which invalidates the concept of its commercial performance, even though you're holding up one of the most successful games in the Pokemon series to the most successful Pokemon game, when by that logic the characters should've stopped after Gen 1.

I think you just don't want a Gen 8, which is fine, but are using any reasoning at hand to justify why we wouldn't get one, which has resulted in some goalposts being moved and some less than tenable points being proposed.

"Need" is not part of the equation, and hasn't been part of the equation for most bigger series for a while. "Want" is the pivotal factor, and TPC generally wants promotion in Smash, so while I don't particularly want a Gen 8 either, it's not an outcome I would reasonably discount.
You're taking a words a bit too seriously.
I'm not posting any sort of "proof." I'm simply stating my thought process as to how I'm doubtful of a Gen 8 Pokémon as DLC.
If a Gen 8 Pokémon DOES turn out to be in this Fighter's Pass, I'd hardly be shocked.
But I feel like we'd get a tenth Mario character before an eleventh Pokémon.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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The general vibe I always had was that, Incineroar was hated (likely because first impressions were "ew Fire\Fighting" and beyond that was "ew Kencineroar. Decidueye's cooler."), Decidueye was loved, and Primarina...existed. Personally, I can't decide which of the former two I like more (currently leaning Decidueye, though it can go back and forth), and Brionne is far superior to Primarina.
 
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Cosmic77

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Most people don't know this, but Decidueye actually wasn't all that popular in Japan. The poll that was mentioned a few posts before this one placed Primarina at 3rd and Incineroar at 12th. Decidueye didn't even make the top 20. Rowlet was 1st on that poll, but Rowlet isn't Decidueye.

Feels like most people assume Incineroar is hated because their memory always goes back to the initial "yet another Fire/Fighting" response of its leaked design and whatever they remember from Smash speculation (and honestly, any starter who wasn't Decidueye was likely doomed to be controversial from the start). From what I've seen over the years, Incineroar has always reliably been stuck in the middle in most regions. Rarely the most popular but rarely the least popular. That stands true even today. The worldwide Pokemon of the Year poll held earlier this year had Incineroar as the 6th most popular Alolan Pokemon. Decidueye was 3rd, Primarina was 8th.
 

Hinata

Never forget, a believing heart is your magic.
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The general vibe I always had was that, Incineroar was hated (likely because first impressions were "ew Fire\Fighting" and beyond that was "ew Kencineroar. Decidueye's cooler."), Decidueye was loved, and Primarina...existed. Personally, I can't decide which of the former two I like more (currently leaning Decidueye, though it can go back and forth), and Brionne is far superior to Primarina.
Primarina is by far my favorite of the three Alola starters. I love its design so much.
 

Miles of SmashWiki

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Why?

Please explain, because I don't see the logic of this.
Can't say that I have any "hard proof" or anything; it's more of just a gut instinct. I'm not claiming that I know better than anyone else, either. Just my own personal impression.

I suppose the most quantifiable reason I could give is that Minecraft just seems to me to be a stark contrast to the much more character-driven 3rd parties which have gotten playable characters so far. But that too is subjective, so I dunno.
 
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