Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Cutie Gwen]

Well it looks like Astral Chain 2 has been soft confirmed.

for those that can't see his tweets, hideki kamiya has casually been livetweeting platinum's next line-up completely unbothered lmao pic.twitter.com/t3gfbnJvpC

— 🦀 YORA 🦀 (@yoracrab) August 29, 2020

Oh boy I can't wait for Okami 2 then which had the same situation!

For real though if this gets an actual announcement and gets released before Bayo 3 and Project GG Platinum would have left a baaaaaad taste in my mouth

I still don't know why people don't bring up Steve as a likely Microsoft character.

I find him significantly more likely than Master Chief.

In my eyes, Steve's such a no brainer option that I don't feel the need to discuss him whereas Master Chief has that whole 'never appeared on Nintendo' thing which makes discussion more interesting.



Anyway if you could get a newcomer SOLELY for their music who would it be and why is it Adol Christin? Played Ys for the first time yesterday and holy **** that's ridiculously good, especially for 1987

 

[Calamitas]

Well it looks like Astral Chain 2 has been soft confirmed.

for those that can't see his tweets, hideki kamiya has casually been livetweeting platinum's next line-up completely unbothered lmao pic.twitter.com/t3gfbnJvpC

— 🦀 YORA 🦀 (@yoracrab) August 29, 2020

I'm somewhat doubtful on that, considering that Kamiya's tease about how "Okami will be back" from a while back has yet to amount to anything.
But other than that: Oh yes please. Astral Chain was great.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Well it looks like Astral Chain 2 has been soft confirmed.

for those that can't see his tweets, hideki kamiya has casually been livetweeting platinum's next line-up completely unbothered lmao pic.twitter.com/t3gfbnJvpC

— 🦀 YORA 🦀 (@yoracrab) August 29, 2020

I think Astral Chain 2 is pretty likely to happen considering the first game was a critical success and had sold over a million copies within just a few months of its release. But, its probably in very early development and we likely won't see it until 2022 at the earliest. But I do think this is more of a Kamiya troll rather then a direct confirmation that its happening.

 

[Jerry98]

Well it looks like Astral Chain 2 has been soft confirmed.

for those that can't see his tweets, hideki kamiya has casually been livetweeting platinum's next line-up completely unbothered lmao pic.twitter.com/t3gfbnJvpC

— 🦀 YORA 🦀 (@yoracrab) August 29, 2020

I think they should finish all of their other projects before: Bayonetta 3, Babylon's Fall, Project G.G.
I guess they all require a great amount of work and starting a new big project right now may not be a good choice.

 

[M@R!3]

On the subject of Sora as a Mii costume, I always see people say things like "why would they get this really hard to get IP only to mii costume it?" and I'm genuinely curious if people have information on the specifics of IP loaning in this context. Like, has Sakurai given interviews on this? The way people speak about it, it almost seems like they think there's some flat fee to grab the IP for a cameo that would cost the same whether it be a full character or a spirit. Like the whole speculation is filled with IP lawyers.

This isn't specifically a comment on Sora himself, but the idea that a perceived volatile property can't be mii costumed because "it wouldn't be worth it" just seems like faulty thinking to begin with. I can't imagine getting the rights to Assassin's Creed, Fallout and Rayman was some walk in the park either, especially when we know how difficult it is for the team to work with non-Japanese companies.

I'm no IP lawyer, but there is something called a "minimum guarantee", which is an amount that must be paid to the owner of the IP regardless of how successful the product using the license is. But the price is still going to vary depending on the content, conditions set, and companies involved. More well known characters from bigger companies tend to have a higher minimum guarantee. So the common sense approach of thinking that a larger character might not be worth licensing just for a mii costume isn't wrong, but that doesn't mean it's impossible either.

If Nintendo determines that a Dante, Master Chief, or even Sora mii costume would bring in a nice profit then it could happen. Though I would still lean on most big name, third party characters being pretty unlikely targets. Why? Because most people aren't going to go out and buy Smash Ultimate or a Switch just for a $0.75 mii costume.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I feel like I'm the only person that DOESN'T think a Gen 8 Pokémon is likey.

You’re not. Considering Sword and Shield already got a spirit event during a time when the second pass would have already been finalised and Three Houses didn’t prior to Byleth’s presentation, a Gen 8 Pokemon is likely out. Gen 8 isn’t getting any special treatment from other spirited franchises and games.

If Nintendo determines that a Dante, Master Chief, or even Sora mii costume would bring in a nice profit then it could happen. Though I would still lean on most big name, third party characters being pretty unlikely targets. Why? Because most people aren't going to go out and buy Smash Ultimate or a Switch just for a $0.75 mii costume.

If Resident Evil of all franchises could get just a spirit event despite how huge it is and Monster Hunter, another huge Capcom franchise, has yet to have a playable character despite MvCI showing the viability of one, then Dante can easily be a Mii costume. So is Heihachi, and Tekken 3 has sold more than any Devil May Cry title (and cumulative sales of both franchises show Tekken significantly out-performing Devil May Cry).

 

[Dinoman96]

I still don't know why people don't bring up Steve as a likely Microsoft character.

I find him significantly more likely than Master Chief.

The answer is probably that they think he's a bad choice because he's such a nondescript "character" with an ugly design and limited animations that wouldn't look that great in Smash.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

You pretty much hit the nail on the head regarding Conker when he becomes topic of discussion, It's not that no one wants him, It's just that most people are trying to be realistic when it comes Smash speculation.

I'm a big fan of most things Rare and would absolutely love Conker to join in Smash, Most Including myself unfortunately don't see it happening (No Surprise), I personally see Master Chief as the next most likely Microsoft rep (Who I'm cool with) But if for whatever reason he does makes it in then you bet your ass I would pay and download him the second he drops.

Banjo-Kazooie is the only character I bought so far in the fighter pass and I would love for Conker to join his old Rare buddies Diddy Kong, DK and King K. Rool in Super Smash Bros Ultimate.

Surprised this does not have more likes as it is well thought out and well written.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Steve is one of those characters that I feel is gonna happen eventually in Smash someday. Minecraft has proven it's not a fad with how it has a high player-base an entire decade after it released and how it has become the best-selling video game of all time. It's popular in Japan, it has been advertised by Nintendo multiple times, and according to Rare it was the bridge that got Nintendo and Microsoft together which brought Banjo & Kazooie in Smash.

Like some users have said, Steve is such a no brainer option. There is virtually nothing preventing the inclusion of the character in Smash. However, there is only one way I see Steve not making it in and that is if Nintendo decides to opt for the arguably more hype Master Chief. I always saw Chief and Steve being the next Microsoft reps as a 50/50 situation. Nintendo could go for the obvious choice Steve or they could go for the out there choice Master Chief, it really could go either way.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I still don't know why people don't bring up Steve as a likely Microsoft character.

I find him significantly more likely than Master Chief.

It's a combination of Minecraft's "that thar game the kiddywinks won't shut up about" stigma still lingering, even after Fortnite took that crown, and Steve's low poly design.

He would be the first 3rd party that's an avatar rather than a distinct character but we've already got Villager, Wii Fit Trainer, Three Fire Emblem Avatars and the entire cast of Pokemon so it'd be nothing new.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I still don't know why people don't bring up Steve as a likely Microsoft character.

I find him significantly more likely than Master Chief.

I actually think it's more surprising how little he's brought up, since we still can't get over how this entire pass will not make Cloud look like Corrin. At the same time though, it makes you wonder how many only cared for having Steve own the Banjo boomers rather than actually having desire to play as him.

 

[KillerCage]

I feel like I'm the only person that DOESN'T think a Gen 8 Pokémon is likely.

You are not the only one that feels that way.

 

[RileyXY1]

You are not the only one that feels that way.

I believe the same way too.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

I think people on this thread underestimate how huge Steve would be in Smash. Yes Halo in Smash would be huge too, but Minecraft is way bigger in Japan than Halo, and Minecraft have a pretty big presence in China too. Many people have a lot of nostalgia for Minecraft or are still playing it. Also many think that Master chief is more fun to discuss because he's seen as less likely, but outside of the Smash speculation community Steve isn't seen as that likely too compare to other third party. I think Steve would be a huge surprise to many and it could be a huge deal for a lot of the community.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I think people on this thread underestimate how huge Steve would be in Smash. Yes Halo in Smash would be huge too, but Minecraft is way bigger in Japan than Halo, and Minecraft have a pretty big presence in China too. Many people have a lot of nostalgia for Minecraft or are still playing it. Also many think that Master chief is more fun to discuss because he's seen as less likely, but outside of the Smash speculation community Steve isn't seen as that likely too compare to other third party. I think Steve would be a huge surprise to many and it could be a huge deal for a lot of the community.

I don't underestimate the impact, just think this thread overestimates Nintendo's desire for outdoing Ryu and Cloud.

 

[skylanders fan]

In A Weird world of this would never happen but if it were too how would you react if we truly got Goku as the next fighter in smash

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Primarina is by far my favorite of the three Alola starters. I love its design so much.

It's feminine in a way that doesn't really appeal to me personally. That's why I like Brionne more; it's like this cute little girl that has so much fun with Ballet that she just has to show everyone her routine.

I do think Primarina's design is quite good though (and I love the way Sparkling Aria looks), it just doesn't appeal to me personally.

 

[Lamperouge]

I feel like I'm the only person that DOESN'T think a Gen 8 Pokémon is likey.

I pray to God that one isn't happening.

 

[SharkLord]

As others have said, Steve? has a clear path, while Master Chief would break the internet because of what's standing in his way. As a result, Master Chief gets more attention.

That being said, with the addition of Small Battlefield, I could personally see a solo Minecraft stage being released.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I don't underestimate the impact, just think this thread overestimates Nintendo's desire for outdoing Ryu and Cloud.

Considering the first character of this pass was an ARMS character, there is a strong possibility that people expecting most of the pass being big name third-party characters could wind up disappointed due to these expectations.

 

[Louie G.]

Considering the first character of this pass was an ARMS character, there is a strong possibility that people expecting most of the pass being big name third-party characters could wind up disappointed due to these expectations.

I say this as someone who generally prefers Nintendo characters / series very close to Nintendo, there is no reason to believe that the process and decisions behind FP2 will be any different than FP1 based on a single character (). Obviously if the next two characters are somehow also from Nintendo then that's different, but for now there's no precedent for that.

I'd love to see more Nintendo characters myself (somewhat of an even split between Nintendo and third party would be nice), but expecting third parties is actually the realistic mindset. Nintendo knows those are the characters who make headlines, and they're the lifeblood of current speculation and Smash hype. Certainly not everyone or even the majority will be your usual suspects (Crash, Dante, Geno, Hayabusa, Sora... we're definitely bound to have a couple more Terrys) but we're definitely due for some bigger stuff down the line. Nintendo wants to keep people invested after all.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Considering the first character of this pass was an ARMS character, there is a strong possibility that people expecting most of the pass being big name third-party characters could wind up disappointed due to these expectations.

I guess I'm in luck, only one of the characters I want is a big third party so im already going into this expecting to be let down lol

 

[AmphabulouSnake]

The most I can see from Minecraft in Smash Ultimate is Mii costumes and a potential bonus stage.
Other than that I still feel like Steve would look very awkward in Smash, though they obviously can still make it happen...

 

[Cap'n Jack]

I think people on this thread underestimate how huge Steve would be in Smash. Yes Halo in Smash would be huge too, but Minecraft is way bigger in Japan than Halo, and Minecraft have a pretty big presence in China too. Many people have a lot of nostalgia for Minecraft or are still playing it. Also many think that Master chief is more fun to discuss because he's seen as less likely, but outside of the Smash speculation community Steve isn't seen as that likely too compare to other third party. I think Steve would be a huge surprise to many and it could be a huge deal for a lot of the community.

I’m down for either

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I say this as someone who generally prefers Nintendo characters / series very close to Nintendo, there is no reason to believe that the process and decisions behind FP2 will be any different than FP1 based on a single character (). Obviously if the next two characters are somehow also from Nintendo then that's different, but for now there's no precedent for that.

I'd love to see more Nintendo characters myself (somewhat of an even split between Nintendo and third party would be nice), but expecting third parties is actually the realistic mindset. Nintendo knows those are the characters who make headlines, and they're the lifeblood of current speculation and Smash hype. Certainly not everyone or even the majority will be your usual suspects (Crash, Dante, Geno, Hayabusa, Sora... we're definitely bound to have a couple more Terrys) but we're definitely due for some bigger stuff down the line. Nintendo wants to keep people invested after all.

This mentality of over-relying on hype is precisely the reason why nobody expected someone from ARMS to be the first character for the pass with the same arguments you used being the reason why most people expected a “hype” third-party to open up the pass, “making up for Byleth ” - in other words, they expected another . That did not turn out to be the case. At any rate, I do expect at least one or two characters to be in due to fan-demand similar to.

Also, people absolutely expected an all or mostly third-party Fighter Pass back when was the only character.

 

[Dinoman96]

At the same time, I have a hard time coming up with a first party only pass like what so many seem to want.

As in, first party characters that Nintendo actually cares about promoting. I don't see them selecting stuff like Waluigi, Dixie Kong, Bandana Dee, Rhythm Heaven, Isaac, etc and candidates like Paper Mario, Astral Chain and Ring Fit Adventure have already been taken out back with the spirit events. The only other options left that feel possible to me are like, Rex and a new Pokemon, and even they feel a bit dubious.

 

[ChunkySlugger72]

I still don't know why people don't bring up Steve as a likely Microsoft character.

I find him significantly more likely than Master Chief.

Because I feel like it would be the perfect opportunity for Microsoft to reestablish Master Chief and the Halo franchise as a whole, Halo is a still big and iconic franchise that can move Xbox consoles, But it has lost some of it's luster in more recent years and seeing how "Infinite" is somewhat of a soft reboot of the franchise trying to go back to it's roots, It would make sense for them if given the opportunity to promote their flagship franchise for their Xbox brand and which outside of Steam (Still PC) recently has always been exclusive to their platforms (Xbox/Windows) and who knows there was always rumors of the possibility of Halo (Master Chief Collection) coming to the Nintendo Switch.

Halo/Master Chief has always been in the "Elite" Tier when it comes to Smash speculation because of the exclusive status that it represents and how unlikely of a choice he seemed, But with Microsoft already having a seat at the table via Banjo-Kazooie, It now doesn't seem as impossible before to get "Mr. Xbox" to crossover into Smash and would likely be the biggest inclusion in Smash since Sonic back in Brawl.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

For what it is worth, I absolutely do believe we will get at least one third-party character. I’m not really sure about another third-party dominated Fighter Pass, though I do acknowledge the possibility, though is it really as likely as people make it out to be? Only time will tell.

 

[Cosmic77]

There's really no way of telling what Nintendo will want. Seems like the best argument people have for their predictions is, "Nintendo would absolutely want to do this," and, "There's no way Nintendo would want that." Not the best grounds for predicting a pass, especially when the huge third-party character who was probably Crash or Dante turned out to be Min Min.

We'll just have to see where things go with F7 and F8 before we can get a better feel for things. Honestly, I'm just glad that "all third-parties" was shot down with the very first character. Not sure if I could've handled two more years of everyone assuming first-parties were off the table.

 

[Arcanir]

Most people don't know this, but Decidueye actually wasn't all that popular in Japan. The poll that was mentioned a few posts before this one placed Primarina at 3rd and Incineroar at 12th. Decidueye didn't even make the top 20. Rowlet was 1st on that poll, but Rowlet isn't Decidueye.

Feels like most people assume Incineroar is hated because their memory always goes back to the initial "yet another Fire/Fighting" response of its leaked design and whatever they remember from Smash speculation (and honestly, any starter who wasn't Decidueye was likely doomed to be controversial from the start). From what I've seen over the years, Incineroar has always reliably been stuck in the middle in most regions. Rarely the most popular but rarely the least popular. That stands true even today. The worldwide Pokemon of the Year poll held earlier this year had Incineroar as the 6th most popular Alolan Pokemon. Decidueye was 3rd, Primarina was 8th.

Minor correction, but Decideye was actually Top 15 in that poll, not too far behind Incineroar at 12th.

Point still stands as Incineroar's 'unpopularly' is highly overstated, but Decidueye isn't unpopular in Japan either.

 

[Calamitas]

We'll just have to see where things go with F7 and F8 before we can get a better feel for things. Honestly, I'm just glad that "all third-parties" was shot down with the very first character. Not sure if I could've handled two more years of everyone assuming third-parties were off the table.

Third-parties being off the table? Well, that'd throw Smash speculation back by about a decade and a half.

 

[Cosmic77]

Minor correction, but Decideye was actually Top 15 in that poll, not too far behind Incineroar at 12th.

Point still stands as Incineroar's 'unpopularly' is highly overstated, but Decidueye isn't unpopular in Japan either.

Must've mixed it up with different poll. My mistake.

Regardless, people sort of assume that Decidueye is the most popular starter in Japan because that's what they see in their own region. Similarly, people assume Incineroar is hated because it wasn't the starter everyone wanted in Smash, even though it almost always ranks in between the other two starters in polls. It's been that way since SuMo launched up until now, so the people who consider Incineroar to be "clearly more hated than the other two" are uninformed.

Third-parties being off the table? Well, that'd throw Smash speculation back by about a decade and a half.

Yeah, there's no way we're getting third-parties. I mean, who would they even add? Nintendo knows first-parties are what sell DLC.

 

[dream1ng]

The thing you've got to consider about the Nintendo Dream Pokemon poll is that one, it doesn't, to my knowledge, say how many people actually voted, so it may only account for a small slice of the total opinion out there (and therefore, like what you see in Smash polls, the order may completely switch around if conducted elsewhere or again) - and you've got to consider that the demographics which voted may not be indicative of the audience at large.

If you look at the results, every Pokemon was voted for by females more than by males. So, clearly, there were more female responses than male ones. Pokemon does have a proportionately high amount of female players, but they're not the majority, as they were on this poll. So, you just have to consider how the results may look should the poll have had demographics in line with the larger demographics of the series.

Not to impugn any individual placement on that list, it's just to say any given poll isn't somehow "gospel", especially since we know little about its actual sample size.

Remember this?

The most voted for character, Pit, only got 177 points, which I assume are votes. By the teens, the characters are just in the 20s. That's actually less impressive than a number of informal online polls. Don't be swayed just because it's a magazine.

 

[SKX31]

Considering the first character of this pass was an ARMS character, there is a strong possibility that people expecting most of the pass being big name third-party characters could wind up disappointed due to these expectations.

It does depend on how invested a certain person is on the expectations too. I mean, I'm someone who leans on more third parties (big and small combined) than first party characters, but I'm not going to be fussed if I turn out wrong personally. I'm not that invested in the question after all.

That said, I'm personally not convinced we'll see more than 2 Nintendo characters because the # of third parties that have been added (whether as playable, Mii costume capacity or even Spirits) suggests that Nintendo's negotiation team spread quite far and wide. Which has continued for FP2 with Bethesda getting a Mii costume. Could 3 or more Nintendo characters happen? Yeah, not discounting the possibility, but I'm not going to lean onto that unless that actually happens.

And also, I'm not even certain that Joker and Min Min are 100 % comparable as "trendsetters" because of the different circumstances where they were revealed. Joker was revealed practically around Day 1 with an animated trailer and a comment from Reggie, ARMS was initially revealed as a guessing game with three months wait time and without an official comment re: how it'll impact future characters.

I'll echo Cosmic77 's sentiment where we'll have to see FP7 and FP8 before coming to a definitive conclusion.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Third-parties being off the table? Well, that'd throw Smash speculation back by about a decade and a half.

There are no good third-parties left anyway. The only one with a slight chance is Fall Guy, because there's no way they'd go for anyone older than six months.

 

[Ridley64]

I think Steve would feel like Mr. Game and Watch. No quick punches or powerful side b's. Guess my main besides Ridley.

 

[StarBot]

I never really believed in Dante from DMC getting into Smash, Phoenix Wrong getting in would be LOVELY, the reveal trailer is like, BOUNDLESS POSSIBILITIES with the courtroom and the judge and whatnot.

Level 5... heh heh heh heh heh heh heh. Jibanyan is totally gonna be the Level 5 guy, especially if Phoenix Wrong is indeed coming (I don't think Wrong and Layton would BOTH come). Jibanyan with his PAWS OF FURYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY NYAH NYAH NYAH NYAH NYAH! "I am a cat and I like it like that, I tell half truths like a diplomat"

And of COURSE

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

WE'D GET GERA GERA PO IN SMAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAASH! Maybe even a couple versions of it, maybe even a NEW SMASH REMIX

Gera gera po! GERRRRRRRRRRA GERA PO!

Plus, I mean COME ON

Yo-kai Watch SPIRIT BOARD or "INSPIRIT" Board if you will... that writes itself too. That could even play into the reveal trailer, the spirits of characters, various characters being inspirited by Yo-kai (whoever gets inspirited by Fidgephant will need a quick commode).

Kinda secretly want it now. Give me my irritating, chocolate bar eating red cat who stands out in the crosswalk and punches cars.

That song was absolutely annoying, holy hell I had to pause it multiple of time to clear my heqd

 

[SharkLord]

I agree that it's a bit to early to tell. If I am to hazard a guess, I believe that we'll be getting a couple more first parties, with my money being on Isaac and Rex. I also believe that out of the third-parties we do get, only one will be unambiguously big-That is, an absolute legend like Sonic, Ryu, or Hero. Out of FP1, Joker was a recent success, Banjo was mainly concentrated in the Smash fanbase, and Terry is pretty niche outside of the FGC and the arcade fandoms, so they weren't on the same level as Hero.
Of course, everyone was passed over for one way of another except for Hero, who was only guessed correctly because of a leak. I think we'll only get one widely-speculated character, two if we're really lucky, like Crash or Lloyd. Even then, Lloyd doesn't seem to see as much attention nowadays, so he's kinda subjective depending on your criteria for widely-speculated.

 

[GoodGrief741]

At the same time, I have a hard time coming up with a first party only pass like what so many seem to want.

As in, first party characters that Nintendo actually cares about promoting. I don't see them selecting stuff like Waluigi, Dixie Kong, Bandana Dee, Rhythm Heaven, Isaac, etc and candidates like Paper Mario, Astral Chain and Ring Fit Adventure have already been taken out back with the spirit events. The only other options left that feel possible to me are like, Rex and a new Pokemon, and even they feel a bit dubious.

I'd like to see why you think Nintendo wouldn't add those characters or franchises, it's a belief I see thrown around a lot and I want to know where it stems from.

I'd have expected people to have a more open mind of what Nintendo would choose given, you know, we just got a character from a game everyone had written off for representation.

 

[SharkLord]

I'd like to see why you think Nintendo wouldn't add those characters or franchises, it's a belief I see thrown around a lot and I want to know where it stems from.

I'd have expected people to have a more open mind of what Nintendo would choose given, you know, we just got a character from a game everyone had written off for representation.

I think it's mainly because of A: No specific game to be tied down to, which would go against the current standards for DLC, or B: Lack of recency.

I still stand by Isaac as a potential Banjo of the pass and insist that he's being slept on heavy for such a popular character, but I can also see why he's being slept on. The guy hasn't had anything in like a decade now, and doesn't have a rerelease like Banjo, which conflicts with the previously established pattern of first-parties being promotional.

There's also the Assist Trophy argument, but that's another can of worms that's been opened more times than necessary, so let's just leave it alone.