Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[chocolatejr9]

Hey, so Over on Gamefaqs, Apparently some guy is saying there's a rumor in the inside that Nintendo Paid for an Apex Legends character and some music License last year

Without a FP7 announcement, this place feels boring as hell. - Super Smash Bros. Ultimate

For Super Smash Bros. Ultimate on the Nintendo Switch, a GameFAQs message board topic titled "Without a FP7 announcement, this place feels boring as hell.".

gamefaqs.gamespot.com

Now I know anyone can say anything, but since this is out there, I'm wondering if people have been hearing of this rumor as well. I would never Expect EA to be Represented in Smash despite how big they are, but you know, anything's Possible

On the one hand, why would they go with Apex Legends instead of something more iconic, like Mass Effect? On the other hand, EA is EA. As long as they get money in the end, they'll even do the dastardly crime of checks notes listening to their fans. Still, don't see it happening.

Hey if I get F-Zero GX I ain’t complaining

Aaaannnnnddddd you jinxed it.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Kinda wondering about that, though; he may have taken sakurai's words a bit off because Byleth wasn't all that surprising and neither was Min Min.

Um. Wut?

Literally no-one thought Byleth was going to be in the game. In fact, a lot of people assumed the next Spirit event was going to be for Fire Emblem: Three Houses at the time of his reveal. And with Min Min, a lot of people wrote off ARMS in general because Nintendo wasn't doing anything big with ARMS. Both were surprises, one was just negatively received, and the other was met with affluence.

Anyway...kind of wrote a lot to say this, but the TL;DR of what I'm trying to say is, I don't think Reggie is fully accurate in thinking every character is going to be something we would never anticipate. He's right on the new Game & Franchise part though; that's been 100% for Every DLC so far and with creative/innovative as they've been, I don't think they'd suddenly stop and go (Here, FP8 is Baby Rosalina; she's like Rosalina but Tiny and has a pacifier).

A new game & franchise doesn't necessarily translate to a new/innovative character though. That's a design thing. Also, there's a stark difference between adding someone who tends to share the spotlight with someone who's on the roster and adding Baby Rosalina.

 

[GoodGrief741]

If people wanna discuss if a character has or lacks the content necessary to come with a pack, that's great, let's discuss that. But to use the "new worlds" quote as a crutch, that's gotta go. It's a mistranslated quote, and since its appearance we've already had to rethink our definition of it twice because the two characters that we saw didn't fit it. Clearly it's a faulty tool from every standpoint, and it hides people's actual arguments. Instead of saying a character won't get in because they don't fit the "new worlds" angle, sending everyone into the same old discussion of semantics, use your own words and let them carry your arguments.

Patterns aren't to be ignored, but the way speculation uses them is completely wrong. Garteam already put it much better than me, but it begs to be repeated: we aren't just supposed to look at patterns and assume they will hold. That's not how the scientific method works. We're supposed to figure out the reason behind those patterns. If we can't, then it's equally likely that the pattern is one we haven't figured out, or even a coincidence. Just looking at patterns and assuming they will hold up, until they don't, then changing perspectives is a good way to fail at predicting anything. Hell, the only pattern that's reliably held is that the characters discussed usually don't get in and that the theories proposed usually fail; why don't we work by those patterns, instead? At least we'd have less blind spots that way.

On a separate tangent, if I'd told any of you during Smash 4 speculation that people would consider Sephiroth not worth $5.99, you'd have called them incredibly spoiled.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Sooooo something’s gonna happen in a few minutes

I’d like it to be a batch of brand new spirits but it’s prob gonna be either ANOTHER tournament or a generic themed Spirit event

 

[7NATOR]

Oh by the way, Spirit Event today? It's Tuesday, and I believe last time was a tourney

 

[cashregister9]

Sooooo something’s gonna happen in a few minutes

I’d like it to be a batch of brand new spirits but it’s prob gonna be either ANOTHER tournament or a generic themed Spirit event

We had a generic tourney last week correct? if the pattern is to be followed we should get spirits. Whether or not they are new spirits is unknown to all. Nintendo has not followed the pattern in the past though

 

[PSIGuy]

Literally no-one thought Byleth was going to be in the game. In fact, a lot of people assumed the next Spirit event was going to be for Fire Emblem: Three Houses at the time of his reveal.

I suggested it to friends in a discord conversation because I had read a datamine of Three Houses and they had songs associated with every existing Fire Emblem amiibo + one song left over from Three Houses. It wasn’t some super impossible guess.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I don't know about any of you, but I personally approach Smash Speculation as I would a research or argumentative piece for one of my classes.

There's known precedent, statements from interviews, and some valid patterns (though many fans draw inane connections where they don't exist). From that, we can make inferences, draw connections, and come to possible conclusions.

The problem with a lot of Smash Speculation however, is that they approach the process backwards. They start with what they believe to be a definite conclusion and then work backwards to retroactively back it up. This is laden with fallacy, such as confirmation bias and cherry-picking evidence. There's also a stigma towards certain puzzle pieces that don't align with what the majority of fans want. Right now that seems to be the "new worlds" statement.

I honestly don't see the problem with using the "new worlds" statement given that it's one of the only precedents we currently have. While ARMS certainly did have content in Smash before Min Min's reveal, there's a clear difference between costumes and PNGs and representing the world through a character, stage, music, the whole shebang. While it might seem like arguing semantics, I believe it's an important distinction to make.

Had Min Min been a character from a series with pre-existing representation via characters, stages, and items, like Toad or Skull Kid then I'd agree we should throw the "new worlds" statement out the window. But we got neither of those characters, so the precedent still stands until proven otherwise.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I suggested it to friends in a discord conversation because I had read a datamine of Three Houses and they had songs associated with every existing Fire Emblem amiibo + one song left over from Three Houses. It wasn’t some super impossible guess.

Ok sure I'm using hyperbole, but to say that Byleth was widely expected is a complete lie.

 

[ZelDan]

I don't think the term "fan rule" itself is necessarily wrong, and there are times when "fans" act like a pattern is a "rule", despite the fact that Sakurai nor NIntendo themselves have confirmed it to be a rule. Now I'm not aiming this at people that are perhaps skepticle of certain things happening like, say, AT/Mii costume promotions, I'm not going to judge people for being skeptical, but I'm moreso talking about people that act super confident or downright arrogant over these things; people that act like something is 100% the case despite, again, the fact that no one at Nintendo or Sora ltd saying as such. For me there's a huge difference between "Eh, I'm just not confident this will happen" and "OMG, ATs are not happening and are totally out, just get over it already!" or something like that.

I'll also add that I have definitely seen annoying behavior on both sides here. As I said, it can be a pain when people try and shut down discussion on ATs being promoted, but at the same time I certainly found the "spirits don't disconfirm!" side to be tiresome at times, or how they'd completely warp or misinterpret the "spirits disconfirm" side. The thing is, many people on the "spirits disconfirm" side likely were thinking that spirits disconfirmed only for the first fighter's pass. And that DLC past the first FP could perhaps see spirits and maybe evn mii costumes and ATs back on the table. This and of course there's the fact that teh first few DLC characters we got were, in fact, characters with no content or even spirits to speak of. Despite all of this though, I still had to see a bunch of people spout "B-but just PNGs!"

The overall problem here isn't the term fan rules, or if people follow them or not, the problem here for how much some people try to shut down reasonable discussion or speculation.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

If I had a nickel for every time I changed my opinion after learning new information, I’d be rich.

That's not what the original theory was though. It wasn't that the characters they add would come from series that didn't already have a fighter, it was that the characters would come from series that didn't have anything at all.

And besides, if you're arguing that every character has to bring a bunch of content with them that's themed around them, then it applies to literally everyone so what's the point?


Doubt it's true. EA has some big franchises like Mass Effect. Why on Earth would they go with Apex Legends instead of something like that? If they wanted the big battle royale game, Fortnite is right there.

The reason the reasoning is different now is, simply put, because “hypotheses” change when confronted with new evidence, to more accurately predict an outcome.

We got Joker, and many including myself suspected a large 3rd party presence, if not entirely 3rd party. This continued and was reinforced with the following characters. After there wasnt an event for Fire Emblem Three Houses, there were some, including myself, who felt it was possible for Three Houses to get a playable character based on that and as Schnee117 referenced earlier, because it would be considered “new”.

This changed the idea to include games with new entries, like Xenoblade Chronicles 2 or Pokémon. It still excluded ARMS, which was probably because many considered it “dead”.

After ARMS was revealed to be getting a fighter, it’s absolutely blown things open to spirits to an extent. But it is rather similar to Three Houses in that it didn’t have a playable character that belonged to it, didn’t have a stage, nor did it have music. It was a choice that few expected, but just because many didn’t expect it to happen doesn’t mean it renders the concept bunk- it fits similarly to how Byleth does.

Now we’re just at a point where some folks think it might continue that way, others don’t, and for whatever reason a rather harmless conversation turned into an argument about fan rules.

I feel this conversation has run its course anyway, but that is my best explanation.

 

[AmphabulouSnake]

Paper Mario spirits boyzz

 

[Megadoomer]

【スピリッツイベント】
8/28(金)から5日間、『折り紙の野望！ ペーパーマリオ オリガミキング』を開催！ 期間中、『ペーパーマリオ オリガミキング』の新規スピリッツ3種が登場します。ぜひチェックしてみてください！#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/jKcuDirqav

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) August 26, 2020

It looks like there's three new spirits this time.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

【スピリッツイベント】
8/28(金)から5日間、『折り紙の野望！ ペーパーマリオ オリガミキング』を開催！ 期間中、『ペーパーマリオ オリガミキング』の新規スピリッツ3種が登場します。ぜひチェックしてみてください！#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/jKcuDirqav

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) August 26, 2020

It looks like there's three spirits this time.

Paper Mario's chances in shreds.

 

[PLATINUM7]

EDIT: Ninja'd hardcore

 

[7NATOR]

【スピリッツイベント】
8/28(金)から5日間、『折り紙の野望！ ペーパーマリオ オリガミキング』を開催！ 期間中、『ペーパーマリオ オリガミキング』の新規スピリッツ3種が登場します。ぜひチェックしてみてください！#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/jKcuDirqav

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) August 26, 2020

so No Paper Mario?

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Well, RIP Paper Mario. In more ways than one.

 

[ZelDan]

Well, Paper Mario just took a huge hit today.

Which I'm fine with honestly. Paper Mario is a character I had no interest in, whether he took inspiration from older or modern games.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

【スピリッツイベント】
8/28(金)から5日間、『折り紙の野望！ ペーパーマリオ オリガミキング』を開催！ 期間中、『ペーパーマリオ オリガミキング』の新規スピリッツ3種が登場します。ぜひチェックしてみてください！#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/jKcuDirqav

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) August 26, 2020

It looks like there's three new spirits this time.

And I OOP-

your days are numbered, Gooigi...

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

RIP Paper Mario, a first party I would have been totally down with.

Seems like it is a spirit event similar to Astral Chain or Ring Fit- not within the first few weeks of release.

When was the last time we got a new Spirit Event anyway?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

New theory: Paper Mario will be added to Super Smash Bros. when he gets a new game that's actually good.

 

[Megadoomer]

RIP Paper Mario, a first party I would have been totally down with.

Seems like it is a spirit event similar to Astral Chain or Ring Fit- not within the first few weeks of release.

When was the last time we got a new Spirit Event anyway?

Octopath Traveler. I think that, until now, those were the only spirits that weren't in the regular rotation.

 

[Schnee117]

I almost forgot what a character getting spirited away felt like

 

[Guynamednelson]

It's a shame ARMS couldn't carry a conversation until after the fact. People are being far more open than they were in 2019 when discussion was pretty much stuck to only third-parties. Still, there's always room for improvement.

I'm not sure if you can really consider it FAR more open, considering that your average predictions for the rest of FP2 are still a bunch of third parties with occasionally Rex/Gen 8 thrown in. Also:

Paper Mario needs to hope The Origami King doesn't get a spirit event

Whoops!

 

[Perkilator]

【スピリッツイベント】
8/28(金)から5日間、『折り紙の野望！ ペーパーマリオ オリガミキング』を開催！ 期間中、『ペーパーマリオ オリガミキング』の新規スピリッツ3種が登場します。ぜひチェックしてみてください！#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/jKcuDirqav

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) August 26, 2020

It looks like there's three new spirits this time.

I expected a new Spirit other than just Olivia or Olly.

But no 1,000 Fold Arms? Excuisi moi?

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

New theory: Paper Mario will be added to Super Smash Bros. when he gets a new game that's actually good.

I don’t agree with this necessarily, but you get the like because I laughed.

 

[7NATOR]

New theory: Paper Mario will be added to Super Smash Bros. when he gets a new game that's actually good.

Isn't that Oragami King?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Whelp our first character deconfirmation in so long.

Rest in shreds Paper Mario.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

But fr

Future Connected Spirit event with Shulk and Melia’s FC artwork along with Kino and Nene

and also

Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE Encore Spirit Event with Tsubasa (who’s already in as a Spirit), and the missing three - Itsuki, Touma and Kiria

no more excuses Nintendo. Make them happen SOON.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

And I OOP-

your days are numbered, Gooigi...

i dunno i think this fares pretty good for my boy gooigi

hes still not a spirit so it could happen i think it could happen

 

[7NATOR]

So The Past 3 NEW Spirit events have been Square related, and Mario related

Now I don't know what's that supposed to mean for a Particular Mario Character that's owned by Square. Probably just Coincendece, and even if not, I don't know if this is good or bad

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

About time we got some carnage

My condolences to Paper Mario though. Was starting to find him somewhat likely, too.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

So The Past 3 NEW Spirit events have been Square related, and Mario related

Now I don't know what's that supposed to mean for a Particular Mario Character that's owned by Square. Probably just Coincendece, and even if not, I don't know if this is good or bad

Nah, I wouldn’t really look into it that way. The only “hypothesizing” we can do here is basically assume Paper Mario, Octopath, and Trials of Mana are out of the running for playable.

I don’t think it really has anything to do with Geno. Keep the faith though! He can still get in yet.

 

[TwiceEXE]

So, not that I think it's going to mean anything, but Luigi's Mansion 3 still being absent from Spirit Events is pretty peculiar. Honestly, if there was a notable character that I could see being a fighter I would put the chances of a rep pretty high. But I can't see Gooigi as anything but an echo and the other options are King Boo/Hotel Manager Lady.

 

[PSIGuy]

Paper Mario is dead.



But we’re here to talk about Smash fighters, not the current state of beloved franchises.

 

[AreJay25]

Let's be honest, Paper Mario was never going to be the third Mario.

It was always going to be Floating Mario Head from Mario Teaches Typing. And guess who isn't a Spirit yet?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Isn't that Oragami King?

No.

So The Past 3 NEW Spirit events have been Square related, and Mario related

Now I don't know what's that supposed to mean for a Particular Mario Character that's owned by Square. Probably just Coincendece, and even if not, I don't know if this is good or bad

Probably just coincidence. Though I do have to wonder why it took so long. Iirc this is the first new Spirit Event after Paper Mario: The Origami King's release.

Is is due to COVID-19?
Does this mean the Spirit event didn't start work until the game came out?

If so for the second question, this would definitely give an interesting look at just how long a particular event would take.
EDIT: And just how spurr of the moment they can be as well.

 

[3BitSaurus]

So, this is the second event with new Spirits since Min Min released. Considering how consistent they were last season between each new character (roughly 2 to 4 new Spirits between each), this could potentially be another checked box for a possible September announcement. Who knows.

 

[cashregister9]

Super Paper Mario, Color Splash and Origami King are good games.

 

[MooMew64]

PAPER MARIO NOOOOO

JUST WHEN I WAS STARTING TO FEEL THE ODDS WERE 50/50

Ah well, at least it wasn't my boy Googi.

i dunno i think this fares pretty good for my boy gooigi

hes still not a spirit so it could happen i think it could happen

I see I found another true believer.