Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Deleted member]

Yeah, Angry Birds isn't what it used to. They took down the original game because it wasn't "profitable enough," for crying out loud! That's the hardest you can shoot yourself in the foot short of something actually morally reprehensible, like with Konami or Blizzard.

Wait wtf? That happened?

 

[DanganZilla5]

I would love a beat em up rep and side scrolling shooter rep. SpectreJordan summed it up nicely but I will add that Streets of Rage 4 was recently on Switch so I see Axel Stone being a darkhorse pick. I also agree that Contra should be talked about more. It's a classic NES and SNES series that continued to get games over time.

People always talk about the same 5 or 10 characters but they don't bring up the Jimmys and Billys and the Battletoads and the Haggars. What about Arthur from Ghosts N Goblins? That was a well known game that was famous (or infamous?) for its hard difficulty. It was a notable game on the NES and continued to get games on Nintendo platforms. How about Frank West? People talk about Morrigan a decent amount but they don't talk about these other Capcom characters.

How about Maxwell from Scribblenauts? It's a decently popular series and Maxwell himself would fit so well in Smash and has effectively unlimited moveset potential. The series is owned by Warner Bros. so it's only big competition is Mortal Kombat which, while I would like to see get a character, would probably not work in Smash so he has no big obstacles aside from being owned by a western company.

Lara Croft too. She is brought up a decent amount but not nearly as much as you would think considering how iconic she is. For some reason, people seem to disregard her.

I could go on, but I would be here all day. The fact that people don't bring up these characters a lot baffles me. But I think I understand it. I saw a discussion on here about how people are drawn to likely characters and the more likelier a character is, the more likely people will want to support them. While I don't have any data to back this up, I think you can look at the trends and decide for yourself. For example, ever since the DMC games came to Switch ,Dante has garnered a much wider support base, But at the same time this line of thinking doesn't always work. Like I just said, people seem to disregard Lara Croft despite how popular and relevant she is. Would confirmation of her games coming to Switch be the final push to get people to take her more serous? probably so but at least to me she doesn't need any new games on Switch to be likely in the first place.

It's also bias too. Bill Rizer is not one of your wanted characters? Screw him, ______ is more likely than him.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

As far as assist trophy promotions, I think might actually go with Alucard. No idea how you'd make his core abilities balanced in a moveset, but there's real potential there for a great fighter.

 

[Dinoman96]

I'd say people disregard Lara on the virtue of her being an AAA western character (though she's owned by a JP company), which Smash, uh, has kinda avoided up to this point. Thus far, the only western designed characters playable in Smash are from Rare and Retro Studios games originally published by Nintendo. Naturally, there's lot of apprehension regarding her inclusion.

That, and I think her portrayal in the modern TR games have kinda soiled her reputation.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Can someone humor me on Taiko Don chan. What does everyone think his final smash would be?

 

[TheBeastHimself]

For an AT, I'd go with Jeff:

He's a non-PSI user from EarthBound, meaning none of that PK Fire nonsense. He has a lot of gadgets, tools, and explosives that would make him a fully unique character compared to his counterparts already in Smash.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Lara Croft too. She is brought up a decent amount but not nearly as much as you would think considering how iconic she is. For some reason, people seem to disregard her.

That's due to not selling well in Japan plus plenty of Square competition (2B, Euden, Geno, Sora).

But yeah you would otherwise think she'd be more looked at. She is the female video game protagonist and a major icon of the 90s. She more then earns her spot.

 

[Deleted member]

How about Maxwell from Scribblenauts? It's a decently popular series and Maxwell himself would fit so well in Smash and has effectively unlimited moveset potential. The series is owned by Warner Bros. so it's only big competition is Mortal Kombat which, while I would like to see get a character, would probably not work in Smash so he has no big obstacles aside from being owned by a western company.

Actually that's not a half bad idea tbh

 

[SharkLord]

I'd say people disregard Lara on the virtue of her being an AAA western character (though she's owned by a JP company), which Smash, uh, has kinda avoided up to this point. Thus far, the only western designed characters playable in Smash are from Rare and Retro Studios games originally published by Nintendo. Naturally, there's lot of apprehension regarding her inclusion.

That, and I think her portrayal in the modern TR games have kinda soiled her reputation.

Yeah, the "fan rules" aren't something that disappear overnight. Unless it's an explicit rule-breaker who destroys the rule entirely, we'll just keep making amendments to the rule. That, and Lara hasn't had anything going for her in the Smash circles as of late, like Dante and Doomguy. I'd also imagine there's a bit of bias for characters like Sora and Geno, so people would be more inclined to write them off.

That's due to not selling well in Japan plus plenty of Square competition (2B, Euden, Geno, Sora).

But yeah you would otherwise think she'd be more looked at. She is the female video game protagonist and a major icon of the 90s. She more then earns her spot.

I-wait-Since when was Euden a Square Enix character?

 

[Speed Weed]

Can someone humor me on Taiko Don chan. What does everyone think his final smash would be?

he suplexes you into the ****ing sun

 

[SpectreJordan]

I'd say people disregard Lara on the virtue of her being an AAA western character (though she's owned by a JP company), which Smash, uh, has kinda avoided up to this point. Thus far, the only western designed characters playable in Smash are from Rare and Retro Studios games originally published by Nintendo. Naturally, there's lot of apprehension regarding her inclusion.

That, and I think her portrayal in the modern TR games have kinda soiled her reputation.

I think we’ll be seeing a major AAA western character in this pass. They’re running out of major Japanese franchises to pick unless they want to double dip on series like Sonic or Final Fantasy.

As for Lara, something I’ve noticed is that there doesn’t seem to be a particularly large Tomb Raider fanbase. Everyone knows Tomb Raider/Lara & most people who’ve played those games like them (myself included). But I haven’t really seen anyone who’s super passionate about the series. It’s sort of odd since that series is massive sales wise. Maybe it’s because Tomb Raider’s Thunder has been stolen by Uncharted in the last decade.

I feel that could negatively effect her chances for Smash. If Assassin’s Creed & Resident Evil could get put into non-fighter roles then I could see the same happening for Tomb Raider.

 

[Dinoman96]

I can honestly see Nintendo/Sakurai just keeping adding more smaller Japanese third parties or you know, Nintendo characters before they start adding big western characters.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

If anyone I think its gonna be Crash.

 

[Deleted member]

I can honestly see Nintendo/Sakurai just keeping adding more smaller Japanese third parties or you know, Nintendo characters before they start adding big western characters.

That's one of the big reason I consider my most wanted a pipe dream tbh.

Why add a character from an mmorpg(a western one at that) which is slowly dying when you can just add Lara Croft or other western gaming icons like Crash instead and appeal to more people?

It's a sad state of affairs, but I've already accepted it.

 

[cashregister9]

That's due to not selling well in Japan plus plenty of Square competition (2B, Euden, Geno, Sora).

Just to clarify Dragalia Lost is made by Nintendo and Cygames

 

[SNEKeater]

I think we’ll be seeing a major AAA western character in this pass. They’re running out of major Japanese franchises to pick unless they want to double dip on series like Sonic or Final Fantasy.

As for Lara, something I’ve noticed is that there doesn’t seem to be a particularly large Tomb Raider fanbase. Everyone knows Tomb Raider/Lara & most people who’ve played those games like them (myself included). But I haven’t really seen anyone who’s super passionate about the series. It’s sort of odd since that series is massive sales wise. Maybe it’s because Tomb Raider’s Thunder has been stolen by Uncharted in the last decade.

I feel that could negatively effect her chances for Smash. If Assassin’s Creed & Resident Evil could get put into non-fighter roles then I could see the same happening for Tomb Raider.

I can see a western character, but in my mind that feels like it would be Crash. Maybe a Bethesda character or Rayman. Not including Microsoft here.

I don't know. Lara is an important character that's for sure but I'm not really feeling her. Specially with all the competition she has, and I have a hard time seeing Nintendo going for her. I honestly believe they would rather go for Geno, despite him being less known than Lara. This is just my perception tho.

As for major japanese franchises, I think you're half right there, because in most scenarios I still think Sakurai and Nintendo would go for a character with a mid tier profile, to put it in a way, before a popular western character.
That's just how I see it, I wouldn't have any problems with someone like Doomslayer, for example, but I could totally see Nintendo skipping him to pick names such as Kiryu, Arle or Neku, for example, which I guess could be considered from "mid tier franchises".

Yes, I know characters don't really compete with each other, specially if they're not from the same company, but I think what I'm trying to say with the example is clear.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Lara also feels like she suffers from not being the ideal pick for a lot people no matter what lane she's in. As an icon of the mid 90s often associated with Playstation Crash is dominant, as an action oriented badass woman many would prefer the likes of a Jill Valentine or 2B, as a Square owned character there's numerous others that are way ahead of her as a request, and even with the context of a globe trotting adventurer/treasure seeker she feels second to Nathan Drake. Few dislike her, but she just doesn't feel like a must have for any one reason.

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

Honestly, why is speculation still stationed at assuming probabilities? At the rate of introductions to the Smash roster we've been getting, I don't trust any specific patterns. Joker obviously broke a number of expectations at once. Banjo was once seen as an impossibility. An all third-party pass was nullified by Byleth. Min Min voided the spirit rule.

At the rate of speculation we keep going towards, I would like to believe we don't need more guests, but again, how can I trust that? There clearly isn't much of a pattern the DLC follows; maybe some similarities, but nothing super concrete. Perhaps rather than keeping tally on what seems the most logical choice, we should look at more unorthodox choices and look for ways that they could be Smash worthy, as well.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Just to clarify Dragalia Lost is made by Nintendo and Cygames

And people wonder why I think Euden is slept on...

 

[SKX31]

That's due to not selling well in Japan plus plenty of Square competition (2B, Euden, Geno, Sora).

But yeah you would otherwise think she'd be more looked at. She is the female video game protagonist and a major icon of the 90s. She more then earns her spot.

The first Angelina Jolie movie did pretty well in Japan - with its Japanese gross being comparable to Detective Pikachu's (especially when adjusting for inflation). And the games have been localized and done reasonably well. The quality of said localizations seem to have been a bit wonky though at points.

I don't think I've seen total sales of Tomb Raider games in Japan, but the 2013 game debuted at #4 (around Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon), and Rise of debuted at #2 (just above Color Splash). If anything, Tomb Raider is consistently doing well.

I can honestly see Nintendo/Sakurai just keeping adding more smaller Japanese third parties or you know, Nintendo characters before they start adding big western characters.

I half-agree there, that I wouldn't be surprised to see smaller Japanese third parties (Ni No Kuni's a great example IMHO). But I personally won't count out Western characters either because we've had B-K included and a number of them as Mii costumes (just as RE - one of the biggest Japanese series - was included as Spirits). I'm not trying to say that big franchises = non-playable, I'm trying to say that Nintendo's already worked with a number of varied Western developers from indie to megacorp. I don't think it's going to be consistent either, more so on a case-by-case basis.

And it's Furukawa / Nintendo who are the primary shot callers (with Sakurai giving the consent) so I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo want to include one or a couple Western characters.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

Can someone humor me on Taiko Don chan. What does everyone think his final smash would be?

Recently we only had cutscene final Smash, but I imagine him having something similar to Wii fit trainer and he will throw a bunch of notes like a projectiles.

 

[SharkLord]

Honestly, why is speculation still stationed at assuming probabilities? At the rate of introductions to the Smash roster we've been getting, I don't trust any specific patterns. Joker obviously broke a number of expectations at once. Banjo was once seen as an impossibility. An all third-party pass was nullified by Byleth. Min Min voided the spirit rule.

At the rate of speculation we keep going towards, I would like to believe we don't need more guests, but again, how can I trust that? There clearly isn't much of a pattern the DLC follows; maybe some similarities, but nothing super concrete. Perhaps rather than keeping tally on what seems the most logical choice, we should look at more unorthodox choices and look for ways that they could be Smash worthy, as well.

Around Smash 4 we fell into a mindset of narrowing things down, and that carried over into Ultimate. Then Joker came in, followed by Banjo and Kazooie a little later, and all bets were off. Probabilities are used because there's too many potential options otherwise.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

That's due to not selling well in Japan plus plenty of Square competition (2B, Euden, Geno, Sora).

But yeah you would otherwise think she'd be more looked at. She is the female video game protagonist and a major icon of the 90s. She more then earns her spot.

Euden

you meant Neku right?

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

Around Smash 4 we fell into a mindset of narrowing things down, and that carried over into Ultimate. Then Joker came in, followed by Banjo and Kazooie a little later, and all bets were off. Probabilities are used because there's too many potential options otherwise.

See, but maybe that's not a good idea. I don't trust the notion of probability in getting a particular character, mostly because it seems unrelated to how they actually pick characters. Joker was not highly speculated before he got in, and neither was Hero, at least before he got leaked.

Also, are you positive we narrowed things down in the Smash 4 days? I seem to recall the same probability behavior around the days of the ballot.

 

[Speed Weed]

lara croft suffers from the same crippling problem as every other square character: she has to compete with gex

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Do I see some Streets of Rage talk? Because I would co-main Axel Stone day 1 if he ever got into Smash Bros!

Turn up the volume because from here on out, we Go Straight to Smash Bros! Yeah!

 

[Miles of SmashWiki]

Dragalia Lost is a weird case.

On the one hand, the fact that Smash has included almost nothing from Nintendo's mobile game library suggests they're not really trying to integrate those games into their main console lineup. All we got from mobile games was two music tracks from Fire Emblem Heroes, and that's it. They didn't even do spirits for Alfonse or Sharena or anything. And other mobile games like Super Mario Run and Pokemon Go were completely glossed over. Not to mention the legal issues involving gacha game mechanics in some parts of the world...

On the other hand, it's a new Nintendo IP of recent years with a lot of content that could be represented if they wanted to, and one that isn't doubling up on existing content in Smash in pretty much any way, which isn't something you can say about many series. It's also done decently, if not necessarily outstandingly, for itself in a fairly crowded market. And if they ever wanted to give the IP a Switch game in some capacity (whether something like Granblue Versus or some other kind of spinoff), representing it in Smash would be a great way to draw it back into the eyes of the wider Nintendo audience.

My personal gut feeling is leaning towards it getting a spirit event or Mii costume if anything, but I do think it's an oddball situation and I'm not writing off the possibility.

 

[Deleted member]

While we're totally not on that topic anymore, one of my most wanteds that I know will quite literally never make in it(for obvious reasons once I show the image) is this

Like, first of all, if there was ever a Card Game character in smash, it would 100% be from MTG, no question about that. So there goes all the chances period. Secondly, Vanguard is kinda obscure so it's not like Nintendo would be itching to pull content from that in the first place. But hot damn do I really wish the Star-Vaders had a chance at all, they're super cool looking and I love their aesthetic design, what with the "black rings of despair" thing they have going on.

And that's pretty much all i gots to say about that.

 

[PeridotGX]

lara croft suffers from the same crippling problem as every other square character: she has to compete with gex

Is it Gex night?

 

[chocolatejr9]

While we're totally not on that topic anymore, one of my most wanteds that I know will quite literally never make in it(for obvious reasons once I show the image) is this
View attachment 283007
Like, first of all, if there was ever a Card Game character in smash, it would 100% be from MTG, no question about that. So there goes all the chances period. Secondly, Vanguard is kinda obscure so it's not like Nintendo would be itching to pull content from that in the first place. But hot damn do I really wish the Star-Vaders had a chance at all, they're super cool looking and I love their aesthetic design, what with the "black rings of despair" thing they have going on.

And that's pretty much all i gots to say about that.

Wait, how do we know they'd go for Magic: The Gathering? Wouldn't they want to go for a Japanese card game first? This is, of course, assuming card games are even on the table for Smash...

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

I can honestly see Nintendo/Sakurai just keeping adding more smaller Japanese third parties or you know, Nintendo characters before they start adding big western characters.

I half agree since there's not many major Japanese characters left to chose from, that they might add more mid-tier to niche characters or first party characters to the dlc roster before adding more major western characters.

 

[Deleted member]

Wait, how do we know they'd go for Magic: The Gathering? Wouldn't they want to go for a Japanese card game first? This is, of course, assuming card games are even on the table for Smash...

Well, MTG is the most popular of all card games, and it goes back around 20 years, way longer than say Yugioh. It's the best representation of the sub genre that is card games.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

I think what could hurt Lara Croft is the fact that she doesn't have anything that makes her stand out. She's just a regular human that uses a bow, guns, ropes and other gadgets. I think she will eventually get spirit like the Resident evil cast, probably near that rumored Tomb raider collection.

 

[Schnee117]

Is it Gex night?

It's always Gex Night

 

[chocolatejr9]

Well, MTG is the most popular of all card games, and it goes back around 20 years, way longer than say Yugioh. It's the best representation of the sub genre that is card games.

That's fair, though keep in mind Nintendo does seem to be biased towards Japanese gaming (we only have four non-Japanese characters, and only one of them is third-party). That could always come into play...

 

[Lamperouge]

lara croft suffers from the same crippling problem as every other square character: she has to compete with gex

This post is like a lūʻau at Masahiro Sakurai's house.

 

[I.D.]

Honestly, why is speculation still stationed at assuming probabilities? At the rate of introductions to the Smash roster we've been getting, I don't trust any specific patterns. Joker obviously broke a number of expectations at once. Banjo was once seen as an impossibility. An all third-party pass was nullified by Byleth. Min Min voided the spirit rule.

At the rate of speculation we keep going towards, I would like to believe we don't need more guests, but again, how can I trust that? There clearly isn't much of a pattern the DLC follows; maybe some similarities, but nothing super concrete. Perhaps rather than keeping tally on what seems the most logical choice, we should look at more unorthodox choices and look for ways that they could be Smash worthy, as well.

See, but maybe that's not a good idea. I don't trust the notion of probability in getting a particular character, mostly because it seems unrelated to how they actually pick characters. Joker was not highly speculated before he got in, and neither was Hero, at least before he got leaked.

Also, are you positive we narrowed things down in the Smash 4 days? I seem to recall the same probability behavior around the days of the ballot.

I predict a 100% probability of Scoliosis making a super long Jonespost if you keep this conversation going

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I predict a 100% probability of Scoliosis making a super long Jonespost if you keep this conversation going

Watch this.

Honestly, why is speculation still stationed at assuming probabilities? At the rate of introductions to the Smash roster we've been getting, I don't trust any specific patterns. Joker obviously broke a number of expectations at once. Banjo was once seen as an impossibility. An all third-party pass was nullified by Byleth. Min Min voided the spirit rule.

At the rate of speculation we keep going towards, I would like to believe we don't need more guests, but again, how can I trust that? There clearly isn't much of a pattern the DLC follows; maybe some similarities, but nothing super concrete. Perhaps rather than keeping tally on what seems the most logical choice, we should look at more unorthodox choices and look for ways that they could be Smash worthy, as well.

I think it depends on the pattern. Some are more valid than others, and are based on information such as potential interest from Sakurai himself (Joker, Terry) others having a marketing aspect to them (speculation that DQ would have been base if not for financials, but fit perfectly for marketing of DQXIS), a fan favorite in Banjo who has a lot of particular business dealings that assisted in acquiring him, and Byleth is a first party "new game character", just like Corrin was. Min Min is sorta like Byleth, but I think it was also to bring ARMS back into the public eye.

Some patterns are consistent, but it depends what exactly the patterns are.

I.D. your prediction was only PARTIALLY correct, because while I did respond it was not that long.

 

[Diddy Kong]

We're talking Assist Trophy promotions?

I got a couple I would really have loved to see.

Mainly; Isaac, Krystal, Lyn and the Black Knight. I know, the last two are considered semi blasphemous here because of the opinion about Fire Emblem characters, but I still used to support them.

Isaac I still support. Heavily. And I could see him making it to the roster with the rumours of a new Golden Sun coming.

 

[MooMew64]

To be quite frank, proper speculation needs to have probabilities and observation on patterns in order to actually, well, speculate. Without trying to find a common thread amongst the additions and then compare those previously observed patterns to potential candidates, all we're doing is guessing and saying "I dunno, could be X character" over and over again. Speculation like this, especially when it lasts so long, is only really fun IMHO when you give it structure by trying to really look at the situation and form proper theories that have actual precedence to back them up.