And to that end, people already discuss other popular characters and potential promotional picks as feasible, plausible candidates. That really is the brunt of discussion anyway. We already do use precedent as much as it can be used. And more than we should, in some cases. I mean, after four third-parties, most people had discounted the promotional first-party as an overly likely conclusion to the first pass because of the precedent at hand.While it is true that much of speculation does not bear fruit, it is incorrect to say that certain things have not been true. Precedent was still correct in that a first party in Volume 1 would be a marketing pick (which, post-Pokemon spirit event and a lack of 3H spirit event, pointed to Edelgard or Byleth), and the "mascot/protagonist first" is still accurate despite Min Min being the pick over Spring Man. Banjo also was absolutely seen as potentially more likely because of the relationship between Microsoft and Nintendo, anything else is revisionist.
I can't provide a rebuttal for Joker or Terry because it's true: they were often considered "never happening" for whatever reason. But they do contribute to further speculation. Based on their inclusion, it expanded what is considered "possible" and had allowed characters that weren't previously considered to have some time in the spotlight.
Granted, I don't think it's fair to say that, because people don't guess things correctly 100% of the time, that it's all a waste of time. That's silly. But I also think it's silly for people to come into a speculation thread and say, "Why bother speculating when you're just going to be wrong?". The fact that this is mentioned so often makes it seem as though the people suggesting this don't actually want to speculate or have an inherent fear of being wrong about fictional characters in a wacky wahoo fighting game.
But speculation isn't always about being right. It's also about having fun. Am I upset that I was wrong about thinking Spring Man was in before Min Min? No, because Min Min is fun and nobody actually cares about it. That's what speculation is about.
What additional pertinent information are we foregoing that otherwise could be an active part of the conversation? If anything, I think there are too many pieces that are erroneously given importance. I mean, how many ostensible "rules" to Smash have just completely collapsed over the years?
What we have now doesn't constitute a pattern, or an equation. It's just factors which could result in further inclusions that already make up the majority of the discourse anyway. That is, when it isn't dissecting some dubious claim. We are using what we know, we just don't know much.
It's not a waste of time to speculate if you're enjoying yourself, but what valid theorem could possibly be concocted that this obsessive fanbase has, to date, simply overlooked? It's not a matter of failing to put the puzzle pieces together correctly, it's that we only have enough pieces to do preliminary guesswork.
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