Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[JCKirbs]

Where talking Assist Trophy promotions?

I got a couple I would really have loved to see.

Mainly; Isaac, Krystal, Lyn and the Black Knight. I know, the last two are considered semi blasphemous here because of the opinion about Fire Emblem characters, but I still used to support them.

Isaac I still support. Heavily. And I could see him making it to the roster with the rumours of a new Golden Sun coming.

To be fair, Lyn and Black Knight look like more interesting/notable additions than some of the Fire Emblem characters on the roster already.
But that's just me.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Honestly, why is speculation still stationed at assuming probabilities? At the rate of introductions to the Smash roster we've been getting, I don't trust any specific patterns. Joker obviously broke a number of expectations at once. Banjo was once seen as an impossibility. An all third-party pass was nullified by Byleth. Min Min voided the spirit rule.

At the rate of speculation we keep going towards, I would like to believe we don't need more guests, but again, how can I trust that? There clearly isn't much of a pattern the DLC follows; maybe some similarities, but nothing super concrete. Perhaps rather than keeping tally on what seems the most logical choice, we should look at more unorthodox choices and look for ways that they could be Smash worthy, as well.

It's really repetitive because plenty of predictions are leftovers from early in FP1, when we only knew about Joker and had Erdrick leaks+Banjo vs. Steve debates.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

To be fair, Lyn and Black Knight look like more interesting/notable additions than some of the Fire Emblem characters on the roster already.
But that's just me.

Tiki as well.

 

[cashregister9]

To be fair, Lyn and Black Knight look like more interesting/notable additions than some of the Fire Emblem characters on the roster already.

I want to add Tiki to this too, I already raved about Tiki earilier in the thread but I thought Tiki had pretty decent chances before ultimates launch, She would have an entirely unique moveset, She appears in several Fire Emblem Games, she is decently popular etc.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

I know nothing about Lyn and I wonder, what's so special about her? With her design she just look like a regular sword fighter, and her assist doesn't really sell me about how she can be unique. Is she just popular because her game is good or there's something that would make her stand out?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

No assists I exactly want but if I had to pick it'd be Isaac I guess because the fans had it unfairly.

 

[MarioRaccoon]

I know nothing about Lyn and I wonder, what's so special about her? With her design she just look like a regular sword fighter, and her assist doesn't really sell me about how she can be unique. Is she just popular because her game is good or there's something that would make her stand out?

One word: Waifu

Same reason people prefer female versions of Corrin or Byleth, or Lucina from Chrom.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

I know nothing about Lyn and I wonder, what's so special about her? With her design she just look like a regular sword fighter, and her assist doesn't really sell me about how she can be unique. Is she just popular because her game is good or there's something that would make her stand out?

While most of the Fire Emblem cast so far in Smash are swordfighters, they use a European fighting style. Lyn uses a Japanese fighting style.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

I know nothing about Lyn and I wonder, what's so special about her? With her design she just look like a regular sword fighter, and her assist doesn't really sell me about how she can be unique. Is she just popular because her game is good or there's something that would make her stand out?

I'm no expert, but she's essentially a samurai of sorts in a series typicaly filled with your run of the mill medieval knights and stuff so that's cool

Also, I believe she uses a bow quite a bit too, so she wouldn't just be a straight-up swordfighter

 

[Mushroomguy12]

I know nothing about Lyn and I wonder, what's so special about her? With her design she just look like a regular sword fighter, and her assist doesn't really sell me about how she can be unique. Is she just popular because her game is good or there's something that would make her stand out?

She's the first lord in the series that most international players were introduced to because her game was the first to be localized and she was the first of the three main characters in the story you were introduced to. So a lot of people have nostalgic attachment to her. That, and she's a great character.

 

[SharkLord]

To be fair, Lyn and Black Knight look like more interesting/notable additions than some of the Fire Emblem characters on the roster already.
But that's just me.

Honestly, I would swap Lucina, Chrom, and Corrin for the Echoes in a heartbeat. A proper Manakete rep, a quick-draw fighter, and n unstopable armored knight are much preferable to bases already covered and a divisve character from a divisive installment.

I know nothing about Lyn and I wonder, what's so special about her? With her design she just look like a regular sword fighter, and her assist doesn't really sell me about how she can be unique. Is she just popular because her game is good or there's something that would make her stand out?

It's not just that her game was good, it was the first Fire Emblem game to hit Western shores. It's no surprise that older Western fans have a special place in their heart for her; Heck, IS even called her the Marth of the West!
Aside from the aforementioned first impression, her design is unique and appealing compared to the standard blue hair, blue armor European sword Lord archetype that's been done to death, and she fights with a blistering, high-speed quick-draw style, something that hasn't been done in yet despite the 10-20 swordfighters in Smash already. If we're going to have a lot of swordfighters, they need to use their swords in different ways, and so a iaijutsu practitioner would be unique and different after the numerous European-style arming swords and stylized greatswords.

I"m no expert but I believe she's essentially a samurai of sorts, so that's pretty cool

Well, not exactly a samurai per say, but she does have the quick-draw style I mentioned above. That being said, we do have an FE samurai, but I think we've had enough of 3DS FE reps by now.

 

[dream1ng]

Lyn was the first Lord/protagonist the west became familiar with (from the series itself), she's pretty different from all the previous Marths of the series, people liked her design, her game - to my knowledge - was the most successful until Awakening, and yeah, she's female.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Just to be clear, have we established if Markomaro is credible? They recently made a statement about the rumored Direct.

 

[N3ON]

Just to be clear, have we established if Markomaro is credible? They recently made a statement about the rumored Direct.

Markomaro is an educated guesser posing as a leaker who recycles whispers, a few of which are credible, and most of which are fabricated.

 

[Schnee117]

Iaijutsu in particular is incredibly awesome and fun when done properly and Lyn wouldn't be an exception.

That's final smash material right there.

 

[SharkLord]

Iaijutsu in particular is incredibly awesome and fun when done properly and Lyn wouldn't be an exception.

That's final smash material right there.

Yeah, everyone needs a quick draw. The only other major character I can think of who's explicitly quick-draw is Vergil, and maybe Zero, but the latter doesn't put too much emphasis on it. Still, iaijutsu or no, it irks me that we don't have a single katana user in Smash. It's always European swords or stylized fictional weapons, like Cloud's glorified meat cleaver and whatever the %$#@ the Monado is supposed to be. Just one Eastern blade for once, that's all I ask.

 

[Koopaul]

To be quite frank, proper speculation needs to have probabilities and observation on patterns in order to actually, well, speculate. Without trying to find a common thread amongst the additions and then compare those previously observed patterns to potential candidates, all we're doing is guessing and saying "I dunno, could be X character" over and over again. Speculation like this, especially when it lasts so long, is only really fun IMHO when you give it structure by trying to really look at the situation and form proper theories that have actual precedence to back them up.

Well yes I agree. We need educated guesses not just random ones. However I feel like this community focuses too much on a select handful of characters. Joker and Terry have shown me that we need to expand our speculation beyond the usual suspects.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

In the past I've compared speculation to, more or less, the application of the scientific method. Particular items of logic, information, argumentation, etc, will lead to a particular conclusion. This is tested through each cycle from character reveal to character reveal. When certain things happen consistently, they are more concrete and that is why they become a "theory" as opposed to a "hypothesis" (which is why many of the things that are labeled as 'theory' in the Smash community are not actually theories at all, but hypotheses).

For example, take the "hypothesis" that every "new" series being added to Smash in the form of a playable character will start with a character that is considered a "mascot" or "protagonist" within that series. Among all series in Smash, this has happened every single time, unless you want to count Min Min as an exception, which she isn't really if you take the flexible definition of "protagonist" into consideration. This is something that has proven accurate for nearly...30-40 series now? It's a pretty strong concept and is arguably the closest thing to a "theory" or "rule" that we have.

For another example, the "all DLC will be 3rd party" "hypothesis". This is based on the concept that "because X, Y, and Z are in, that shows a pattern that, A, B, and C are going to follow". This, however, isn't the whole story. Upon Byleth's reveal, it was clear that there was a consistency with a previous 1st party in Corrin, who was also a "new game/marketing" pick for 1st party properties. It should be noted that there were folks who treated this as a possibility despite expecting 3rd parties.

Basically it goes like this:

Spoiler: Scientific Method

When put into the question of, "What are the chances of X in Smash?" it seems to follow the same structure, just that the "experiment" and "procedure" phases are the speculation, observation of the character reveal/relevant information, and then starting all over again. We analyze the information, and then for the next character, alter the "hypothesis" to make a new prediction.

Obviously there's a key difference between real science and Smash speculation: There are several unknowns that we can't measure on our collective part, so it requires more inferences and speculation to fill in the gaps, and it even involves some human nature of the people involved with the game in the first place!

Basically, in order for the scientific method to operate with speculation it requires discussion beyond, "I think my most wanted is happening because I think they're cool". It requires a reason to investigate why that character would be in the game beyond personal preference, and I think that's why folks love seeing constructed arguments: it gives folks a reason to see something as a possibility as opposed to just a character dudes want. It also can do a decent job of eliminating certain possibilities if they're introduced.

Not all theories deduce who the next character is exactly, but can hint at the reasoning behind certain characters. In terms of ARMS, that in itself was a weird situation where it was almost immediately boiled down to MAYBE 4-5 characters with most people expecting Spring Man (for a variety of reasons) and Min Min based on popularity.

 

[I.D.]

To be quite frank, proper speculation needs to have probabilities and observation on patterns in order to actually, well, speculate. Without trying to find a common thread amongst the additions and then compare those previously observed patterns to potential candidates, all we're doing is guessing and saying "I dunno, could be X character" over and over again. Speculation like this, especially when it lasts so long, is only really fun IMHO when you give it structure by trying to really look at the situation and form proper theories that have actual precedence to back them up.

Probabilites and patterns are fine and all that but it wouldn't kill this thread to do a little thinking outside the box sometimes, you know? During the ARMS guessing game there was a period of time when Springman dominated the conversation so much that anyone who suggested another character could make it over him was simply not taken seriously and always met with the exact same "logical" rebuttals. And that was a guessing game with only 15 potential outcomes.

 

[N3ON]

To be quite frank, proper speculation needs to have probabilities and observation on patterns in order to actually, well, speculate. Without trying to find a common thread amongst the additions and then compare those previously observed patterns to potential candidates, all we're doing is guessing and saying "I dunno, could be X character" over and over again. Speculation like this, especially when it lasts so long, is only really fun IMHO when you give it structure by trying to really look at the situation and form proper theories that have actual precedence to back them up.

Well yes I agree. We need educated guesses not just random ones. However I feel like this community focuses too much on a select handful of characters. Joker and Terry have shown me that we need to expand our speculation beyond the usual suspects.

It's not like people haven't tried to establish theories based on antecedents. The reason there aren't any now is because they've all failed.

If you find some magic pattern that nets you a string of correct deductions, please, let me know.

The only consistency that I put any stock into is that DLC is even harder to predict than base.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

wait why are people suddenly talking about Markomaro?

 

[chocolatejr9]

wait why are people suddenly talking about Markomaro?

Sorry, that's my fault. He recently commented on the Direct rumors, and I wanted to double check if he was credible or not.

Here it is, for anybody curious.

- Yeah i heard about something next week, but looks like a new Partner Showcase (with more content) since will be lots of third party there (lots of them already leaked sadly)
- I was told for a "Normal" Direct on September months ago https://t.co/OHh423b25h

— markomaro (@Newmarkomaro) August 21, 2020

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Yeah, everyone needs a quick draw. The only other major character I can think of who's explicitly quick-draw is Vergil, and maybe Zero, but the latter doesn't put too much emphasis on it. Still, iaijutsu or no, it irks me that we don't have a single katana user in Smash. It's always European swords or stylized fictional weapons, like Cloud's glorified meat cleaver and whatever the %$#@ the Monado is supposed to be. Just one Eastern blade for once, that's all I ask.

More ironic considering that Japan creates the FE series

What a time to be alive

 

[Dark Bagel]

Yeah, everyone needs a quick draw.

You're telling me. Can we get some cartoon horse representation in here?

 

[Cosmic77]

Yeah, good luck predicting what's in this DLC pass. To be blunt, this thread has a horrible track record. Joker and Terry got practically no discussion. Hero was only predictable because someone literally told us, "Hey, I think we're getting a SE rep, possibly DQ." Banjo was frequently predicted more so because of his massive popularity, not because people genuinely thought a Microsoft rep from an inactive franchise was all but guaranteed. Then we have Byleth, and for everyone already preparing their, "Nuh-uh!! I predicted a 3H character!!" rebuttal, how many people here can honestly say that they were expecting Byleth or really any other first-party character to be the last character in a pass full of third-parties? Probably not many.

Now we're in the second pass, and that huge third-party character that Nintendo would definitely feature as the first character so people would buy the pass ended up being Min Min. So far, none of these patterns, precedents, fan rules, or whatever the heck you want to label them as have panned out. I expect that to be the case for the rest of the pass, which is why I honestly have no strong feelings toward any character being one of the five remaining fighters.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

The only characters I again expect are Crash (Legendary) and a Gen 8 Pokemon (Promotion) otherwise, the rest could be anyone else though I expect a Dark Horse/Who? character as well. Part of me is feeling 2B (Have a feeling she'll be the Joker of this Pass and expecting at least one more female rep) as well.

That said current predictions are.

77: 2B (The Outsider)
78: Crash Bandicoot (The Legend)
79: Geno (Fan Favorite)
80: Elma (Dark Horse)
81: Gen 8 Pokemon (Promotional Pick)

Also, rate this Pass.

Sorry, that's my fault. He recently commented on the Direct rumors, and I wanted to double check if he was credible or not.

Here it is, for anybody curious.

- Yeah i heard about something next week, but looks like a new Partner Showcase (with more content) since will be lots of third party there (lots of them already leaked sadly)
- I was told for a "Normal" Direct on September months ago https://t.co/OHh423b25h

— markomaro (@Newmarkomaro) August 21, 2020

Whelp September it is then for FP7.

 

[CrusherMania1592]

The only characters I again expect are Crash (Legendary) and a Gen 8 Pokemon (Promotion) otherwise, the rest could be anyone else though I expect a Dark Horse/Who? character as well. Part of me is feeling 2B (Have a feeling she'll be the Joker of this Pass and expecting at least one more female rep) as well.

That said current predictions are.

77: 2B (The Outsider)
78: Crash Bandicoot (The Legend)
79: Geno (Fan Favorite)
80: Elma (Dark Horse)
81: Gen 8 Pokemon (Promotional Pick)

Also, rate this Pass.

Whelp September it is then for FP7.

I feel one of Dixie or Impa will probably get in this one. Impa has a solid chance with her being recurring Zelda character, but who knows?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I feel one of Dixie or Impa will probably get in this one. Impa has a solid chance with her being recurring Zelda character, but who knows?

Out of the two, I feel Dixie is more likely.

 

[Lamperouge]

The only characters I again expect are Crash (Legendary) and a Gen 8 Pokemon (Promotion) otherwise, the rest could be anyone else though I expect a Dark Horse/Who? character as well. Part of me is feeling 2B (Have a feeling she'll be the Joker of this Pass and expecting at least one more female rep) as well.

That said current predictions are.

77: 2B (The Outsider)
78: Crash Bandicoot (The Legend)
79: Geno (Fan Favorite)
80: Elma (Dark Horse)
81: Gen 8 Pokemon (Promotional Pick)

Also, rate this Pass.

2B: Based
Crash: Okay
Geno: Cool
Elma: Dat ain't Rex
Gen 8 Pokemon: Snooze

6/10

Whelp September it is then for FP7.

When has markomaro ever been credible?

 

[SharkLord]

More ironic considering that Japan creates the FE series

What a time to be alive

And if we get someone like Ryu Hayabusa, the Western fanbase would probably receive him more positively than the Western-inspired FE characters. Not sure how much the Japanese like Ninja Gaiden, so jury's still out on that.

In conclusion, foreign culture is best culture.

Yeah, good luck predicting what's in this DLC pass. To be blunt, this thread has a horrible track record. Joker and Terry got practically no discussion. Hero was only predictable because someone literally told us, "Hey, I think we're getting a SE rep, possibly DQ." Banjo was frequently predicted more so because of his massive popularity, not because people genuinely thought a Microsoft rep from an inactive franchise was all but guaranteed. Then we have Byleth, and for everyone already preparing their, "Nuh-uh!! I predicted a 3H character!!" rebuttal, how many people here can honestly say that they were expecting Byleth or really any other first-party character to be the last character in a pass full of third-parties? Probably not many.

Now we're in the second pass, and that huge third-party character that Nintendo would definitely feature as the first character so people would buy the pass ended up being Min Min. So far, none of these patterns, precedents, fan rules, or whatever the heck you want to label them as have panned out. I expect that to be the case for the rest of the pass, which is why I honestly have no strong feelings toward any character being one of the five remaining fighters.

Whenever things start looking grim for my picks that have a significant barrier in their way, I always just tell myself "I don't need a lot of people to predict them because the majority is never right!" Tell yourself that every time you go to bed, and you'll be fine (Unless they get a Mii or Sprit out of the blue, in which "Oof" is all I can say."

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

While it is true that much of speculation does not bear fruit, it is incorrect to say that certain things have not been true. Precedent was still correct in that a first party in Volume 1 would be a marketing pick (which, post-Pokemon spirit event and a lack of 3H spirit event, pointed to Edelgard or Byleth), and the "mascot/protagonist first" is still accurate despite Min Min being the pick over Spring Man. Banjo also was absolutely seen as potentially more likely because of the relationship between Microsoft and Nintendo, anything else is revisionist.

I can't provide a rebuttal for Joker or Terry because it's true: they were often considered "never happening" for whatever reason. But they do contribute to further speculation. Based on their inclusion, it expanded what is considered "possible" and had allowed characters that weren't previously considered to have some time in the spotlight.

Granted, I don't think it's fair to say that, because people don't guess things correctly 100% of the time, that it's all a waste of time. That's silly. But I also think it's silly for people to come into a speculation thread and say, "Why bother speculating when you're just going to be wrong?". The fact that this is mentioned so often makes it seem as though the people suggesting this don't actually want to speculate or have an inherent fear of being wrong about fictional characters in a wacky wahoo fighting game.

But speculation isn't always about being right. It's also about having fun. Am I upset that I was wrong about thinking Spring Man was in before Min Min? No, because Min Min is fun and nobody actually cares about it. That's what speculation is about.

 

[SharkLord]

The only characters I again expect are Crash (Legendary) and a Gen 8 Pokemon (Promotion) otherwise, the rest could be anyone else though I expect a Dark Horse/Who? character as well. Part of me is feeling 2B (Have a feeling she'll be the Joker of this Pass and expecting at least one more female rep) as well.

That said current predictions are.

77: 2B (The Outsider)
78: Crash Bandicoot (The Legend)
79: Geno (Fan Favorite)
80: Elma (Dark Horse)
81: Gen 8 Pokemon (Promotional Pick)

Also, rate this Pass.

Whelp September it is then for FP7.

...I only meant the predictions as a fun little thing. I didn't think people would take them literally.

 

[MooMew64]

Honestly, who cares if you're right or wrong with your speculation? I personally don't: I'm here because I enjoy reading good theories and sharing my own thoughts on what's possible. Will most of what I say wind up wrong? Possibly! Did I still have fun sharing my thoughts? Absolutely. On some level, it seems as if some people here are saying they don't want speculation...in the speculation thread.

 

[Calamitas]

Whelp September it is then for FP7.

I thought that guy was unreliable. Why even entertain what he has to say for a second?

 

[GoodGrief741]

77: 2B (The Outsider)
78: Crash Bandicoot (The Legend)
79: Geno (Fan Favorite)
80: Elma (Dark Horse)
81: Gen 8 Pokemon (Promotional Pick)

Also, rate this Pass.

I'd mostly enjoy this Pass, except for the Gen 8 Pokemon I think they'd all be good picks. However, I cannot stress enough how ill-advised it is to expect the last five characters of this Pass to match with "archetypes" for the characters from the first Pass, and a lot of these picks are unrealistic imo.

Also I guess I'd be kind of pissed if Rex got snubbed again, it was hard enough when it happened to Spring Man.

 

[Lamperouge]

I thought that guy was unreliable. Why even entertain what he has to say for a second?

Michael's just so on edge with all these "insider" shenanigans that he's defaulted to being pessimistic about everything.

 

[SharkLord]

I'd mostly enjoy this Pass, except for the Gen 8 Pokemon I think they'd all be good picks. However, I cannot stress enough how ill-advised it is to expect the last five characters of this Pass to match with "archetypes" for the characters from the first Pass, and a lot of these picks are unrealistic imo.

Also I guess I'd be kind of pissed if Rex got snubbed again, it was hard enough when it happened to Spring Man.

Yeah, it was just a fun little thing where we go "Hey, how does your wishlist compare?" or "If we were doing it again, who would you choose?" I didn't mean that I though we'd get a 1:1 match.

 

[Cosmic77]

My biggest issue stems from those who are consistently wrong yet still somehow have the confidence to say, "Yeah, that character definitely won't get in, and here's why..." or, "It should be pretty obvious that this character is more likely than almost everyone else."

I don't have a problem with me or anyone else getting stuff wrong. I just wish people would be less stubborn and take their incorrect predictions to heart instead of pretending like they were never wrong in the first place. I'm sure everyone has been in a position where a character they thought was likely got shunned by a lot of people, even though those people probably weren't in any more of a position to be saying what was and wasn't likely.

 

[Schnee117]

I love that people will discard predictions just because of leaks as if leaks aren't a core part of speculation.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

That said current predictions are.

77: 2B (The Outsider)
78: Crash Bandicoot (The Legend)
79: Geno (Fan Favorite)
80: Elma (Dark Horse)
81: Gen 8 Pokemon (Promotional Pick)

Also, rate this Pass.

2B's solid, Crash and Elma are excellent, Geno's an "I sleep", and a Gen 8 mon meanwhile really depends. If it's like Cinderace, Babom, or Dragapult, heck yeah. But if it's like Toxicitry or intelleon or something... Nah