So this is the one that I have been warned about, that if I go into any thread that isn't the Geno Thread and talk about how insanely likely Geno is, I'm basically asking to get crucified. Well, I'll be honest, I don't really believe all that drivel. I won't say that every single Geno fan overreacts, but I will say it sounds like trauma mixed with fear mongering: Sure, Geno fans have been regularly down-trodden just for wanting their character and talking about all the evidence for him, but that doesn't mean that every time to talk to someone who doesn't what Geno that you will be berated for it.
So, I'm here to break the stereotype of how it's not okay to talk about Geno, and I think it's very important because my instincts say he's well on his way already. In fact, I would argue that he's a guarantee and that his chances are at a fat 100%!
Now, before anyone possibly implies that the hats on my profile pic are evidence of bias towards Geno and therefore anything I have to say can perhaps be written off as 'just another blinded Geno fan with his head in the clouds', let me make it clear that separating your feelings from things is something I do very well unless I've lost ten or more games in a row in a competitive game. Much like separating the art from the artist, when it comes to a character's chance (or really any argument in general) I do my absolute best to remove my feelings from my argument because they have no place there.
Thus, I have done the same for Geno and deducing his chances, and yet I still come out to 100%. Why is that?
MCU jokes aside, it's because he's inevitable.
There are a number of requested characters that have gotten into Smash over the years, but Ultimate currently stands out as the game that has added the most long-term character requests of any Smash title thus far in terms of per release.
All the veterans cut from previous games, including Snake? Check.
Daisy? Check.
Ridley, the character heavily requested since N64/Melee and was meme'd because of how he would never happen? Check.
Simon Belmont, back to his original Conan style from a Konami that seemingly hate it's video game consumer base? Check.
King K Rool, the lad who most likely won the ballot but was lost to time after Rare left Nintendo and was thought to never return? Check.
The Hero, a legacy in Japan and a core part of their culture that got snubbed somehow for so many years? Check.
Banjo & Kazooie, known for being an irrelevant dead franchise owned by a direct competitor? Check.
For sure, we have had characters in the mix that were either unknown due to a lack of gaming culture in the Smash sphere, literal WTF Sakurai picks, another Fire Emblem character in DLC and shilling for a game that had been dead for a hot minute until it got a playable character in Smash. Still, not only are these not all that bad, but look at all the requests that we have gotten in comparison. I'd say we are doing rather well as a community, and Sakurai himself said he wants to bring in more characters and worlds to please the fans, which means more amazing picks are on their way.
I'm sure you've all heard this a billion times, but just in case you haven't, back in the boomin' Brawl days when speculation first really took off, there were four characters talked about more than all the rest. These characters were Ridley, King K. Rool, Banjo & Kazooie, and Geno. I like to refer to them as the Four Yonko of Smash Speculation (it's a One Piece reference, some of the strongest pirates out there as far as my limited knowledge goes).
As you can see, we have three outta four right now already in the game. It's a crazy time to be alive and be a Smash fan in all honesty, we really are in our golden years. However, there is still a final Yonko left: Geno, and I wholeheartedly believe that he is coming.
See, Geno really has so much going for him it's crazy. In a brief whirlwind of talking points:
- He is the last of the really big Brawl picks. This is good for him because Ultimate has been seemingly hyped-focused on characters that meet this criteria.
- He's still a fan favorite to this day, and one of the biggest ones even now with all these new characters people are falling in love with. This is good for him because Sakurai is specifically trying to cater to fans with the DLC.
- Square Enix already have a playable character for their two top series, Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest. Of course they have other games people love, but Geno easily places at the top of the Square Enix request list right next to Sora, and Sora has his own barrel of issues that really makes him no competition.
- Sakurai himself has desired to make Geno playable since back in Brawl, and this is from an interview that dates right after the end of Smash 4's DLC. Sakurai mentioned said that 'I think he [Geno] fits in really well with Smash' which is very important because this means that Geno qualifies for being unique and having fun moveset potential, something that Sakurai looks for in a character.
- In the game interview, Sakurai proves that he is aware of Geno's popularity. 'He’s very popular. When talking about older characters, Geno always gets a lot of requests.' This means Geno isn't in a situation in which the developers are unaware of his demand.
- For some reason, Geno's Mii Costume has yet to return in Ultimate. We've had two Mii Costume waves that were pretty grabbag random and had nothing to do with the character and a Square character, yet it didn't appear in any of these. This is odd when you consider that bringing back the costume would just be free money for Square and that Square wouldn't be about making a Premium Mii Costume package that includes music and still only get $.75. It gets even more odd when you consider that Geno and Mallow's Spirits, which would be considered to be of their likeness and would require negotiations, are in the base game along with references to SMRPG enemies in Piranha Plant's Palutena's Guidance in which Plant was originally intended for the base game. Wouldn't they have already negotiated for his costume and included it with Wave 2 then?
Some people may bring up the Heihachi costume returning as evidence that Geno's costume could still return, but Heihachi is a fighting game
character and ARMS is technically a fighting game, so not only was the inclusion thematic but Heihachi was never really heavily requested and Lloyd Irving was always the leader for another Bamco character anyway.
- The CacoMallow images and video have never been debunked all this time. Every possible argument brought up to disprove it has been properly countered and no single modder at that time could replicate it and no one came forward to own up to being the one who did it. When you consider how Ken was involved just like he was in his own Ken Debug leak, how the Cacodemon hat was designed to be more family-friendly, and how we just recently got a Bethesda costume in Vault Boy which proves that Nintendo and Bethesda have already negotiated on content being in the game...it becomes very hard to refute.
- Most recently, the common man has now accepted that Spirits do not deconfirm due to Min Min's inclusion, even though the argument never made sense because so long as there is DLC or the game is still in it's active lifecycle the game can be updated and changed however they wish.
Yeah, this is all some heavy stuff, but even without all that and just the fan demand for all this time, Geno would still be inevitable. When a development team is responsive to the community and cares, it's only a matter of time before you get what you requested. Every Smash game has proven this to various degrees but Dragon Ball FighterZ is also proof of this as they just recently announced Master Roshi who was the MOST requested character to get in. This is just how this sort of scenario works, and it's why I believe that Geno will get into Smash eventually, no matter what.
Now I personally think he's coming very VERY soon, but I sadly cannot give my reasons for that. It's not that I can't explain them or that I have no reasons, but it's because I'm not at liberty to discuss such things.