Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Deleted member]

What's everything expecting for the Indie Direct, if you don't mind me asking?

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

What's everything expecting for the Indie Direct, if you don't mind me asking?

A lot of this leans into more wishful thinking than predictions, but:

-Might be wishful thinking, but something for Silksong.
-Axiom Verge 2
-Possibly something from Playtonic (maybe in association with Impossible Lair DLC?)
-Another indie/Nintendo collaboration like Candace of Hyrule
-Update on Skater XL
-Release date for Boyfriend Dungeon

 

[Rie Sonomura]

What's everything expecting for the Indie Direct, if you don't mind me asking?

• Silksong
• Cuphead DLC
• Ori And The Will Of The Wisps Switch port
• Azure Striker Gunvolt 3
• maybe just maybe Deltarune chapter 2???

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I think that the dreadfully long ARMS tease helped her, she became somewhat expected and was seen as better than the worst potential outcomes

Yeah, that's probably the silver lining there; It's the one time that the hyped up crowd actually got what they wanted.

Also most of this thread when the ARMS speculation cycle was going on: “It’s Spring Man, obviously. Boyo-yo-yoing!” “I hate this wait, can we please just get it over with?”

I mean, I’m with you guys, I disliked the wait too. But geez, this thread can be hypocritical sometimes...

No no no. Min Min was the overwhelmingly popular choice. Spring Man was almost solely speculated on either because he's the mascot or because they wanted Assist Trophies to be viable picks. There was like, 3 people that actually wanted him.

I still think Spring Man should have been the pick, though I do acknowledge that Min Min made for a deeper moveset.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

What's everything expecting for the Indie Direct, if you don't mind me asking?

One of the Hollow Knight guys retweeted the announcement so I take that to mean Silksong will show up.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

The ARMS wait was strange. I distinctly remember folks, myself included, suggesting, "Reveal the series the character is from and that will make the wait a bit easier!"

I'd argue it made things worse.

Let's be real, the fan debate was between Spring Man and Min Min largely for a few reasons. First, Spring Man was the cover boy. This was considered to put him on the table despite him being an Assist Trophy, and that every series starts with a mascot and/or protagonist. Min Min was commonly seen as the other top contender because she's the most popular ARMS character collectively, and was suggested as the "dev favorite". This went back and forth for awhile, though most folks thought Spring Man would be picked.

What was interesting about the whole presentation was that Sakurai said that NInjara was considered, but nothing about Spring Man. This could be for a few reasons, whether the fact that he really isn't that interesting compared to Min Min or other picks, or simply the fact that he's an Assist Trophy. After all, Spring Man was seen as the de facto "path to playable" for other Assist Trophies in Ultimate by fans, so that was a potential indicator. This was also a reason why folks essentially jumped on the Springwagon and supported a character which...I mean, alright. I can't judge.

EDIT: A correction- Sakurai did mention Spring Man when it came to the "protagonist" thing, where "Some of you might consider Spring Man the protagonist, but they're all protagonists!"

Based on the outcome, and what Sakurai said during his presentation, he referred to all ARMS characters as protagonists, as that is what Yabuki said in their discussions. If you ask me, if it didn't matter for character inclusions or at the very least wasn't something they considered, he'd never have mentioned it. To be an "exception" to a "rule" proves the "rule" exists, otherwise it's not an exception (this is also a measured exception when every other series has their de-facto mascot/protagonist as their first character). ARMS has a cast in which, really, there's no single narrative that focuses on one character, and each character in the ensemble cast is their own protagonist, therefore they're all protagonists, which then lends itself to other criteria to choose the pick: popularity, unique abilities, developer preference etc...

This is one of those cases in which, bruh, I am GLAD I was wrong with what I thought was going to happen. I thought it would be Spring Man based on the concept that the "cover characters" are the "De-facto mascot" but a fighting game with an ensemble cast is a different story. Min Min is a bunch of fun, though it's harder to play her well now that people have figured her out.

Min Min being the choice opens up possibilities, but to what extent? ARMS is a game with an ensemble cast, whereas many others aren't in that same situation. If the narrative of a game seems to push all as a "protagonist" (For example, I might argue Bravely Default) with having separate storylines that converge with one another, then I could see a Min Min happening again (Agnes is largely seen as the 'protagonist', but Edea is the developer favorite, for example, and her story plays a major part in driving the plot forward) then maybe I could see a similar situation. But it's not applicable to every single game, nor should it be seen as such. I think initially this was seen as a "non-protagonists can be chosen" argument when I don't think that's an entirely accurate assessment of the information we received. (Not to say they can't, but precedent largely goes against this idea, at least when it's a new series getting a playable character when they previously didn't have one). I'm sure somebody will respond to this with, "Precedence was wrong before!" but that's not inherently an argument against this specific point, especially when "exceptions" don't typically point to a complete dismantling of a process.

Basically, I don't see Min Min as a huge indicator for, like, Bandanna Waddle Dee for example. It doesn't mean BWD isn't going to happen, but it's two different situations. As a Spirit upgrade, again, I'm not sure I would see Min Min as an indicator for future additions. Unlike Waluigi (who is still quite different from Min Min), Min Min is from a series without a playable fighter, which inherently brings in untapped content. This isn't to say that Waluigi can't happen, simply that Min Min doesn't point to Waluigi because she's an upgrade. Waluigi would be upgraded by his own merits (though I'm not sure I expect more upgrades, at MOST I'd say one more...but that's an entirely different argument probably).

 

[CapitaineCrash]

What's everything expecting for the Indie Direct, if you don't mind me asking?

I'm expecting:
-Meat boy forever release date
-Hollow knight silksong news
-Disco Elysium release date (shadow drop?)
-A indie take on a Nintendo ip (if I had to guess I'd say Wario land)
-Maybe No more heroes port, but I'm unsure if that would be too big for a presentation like that (but technicallyit is an indie).

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Basically, I don't see Min Min as a huge indicator for, like, Bandanna Waddle Dee for example. It doesn't mean BWD isn't going to happen, but it's two different situations. As a Spirit upgrade, again, I'm not sure I would see Min Min as an indicator for future additions. Unlike Waluigi, Min Min is from a series without a playable fighter, which inherently brings in untapped content. This isn't to say that Waluigi can't happen, simply that Min Min doesn't point to Waluigi because she's an upgrade. Waluigi would be upgraded by his own merits (though I'm not sure I expect more upgrades, at MOST I'd say one more...but that's an entirely different argument probably).

I think it's safe to say Min Min doesn't rock the boat at all in this regard. Unlike with Assist Trophies, Spirits were never officially said to disconfirm a fighter, which means they were always on the table in regards to upgrades. She also doesn't break the protagonist/mascot first rule either because as you said, they consider everyone to be the protagonist. And this doesn't really factor into anything, but if there ever is an ARMS 2, she is 100% going to be one of that game's mascots if not it's only mascot due to her appearance in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate making her the new face of the series, which does mean that she will potentially retroactively be the mascot pick as well.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

The only indie I was intrested in was Sports Story and that isnt even in the thing

 

[Deleted member]

The only indie I was intrested in was Sports Story and that isnt even in the thing

I'm honestly kinda liking Fall Guys. it's a pretty unique take on Battle Royales(when literally all of them are shooters and have really worn thin, what with them all using pretty much the same core gameplay loop of looting houses and running into the center of the map) and I want it to come to Switch pls.

Also I kinda want a Mario costume, because why not. TF2 scout is a thing in Fall Guys so it's not like its off the table lol

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I'm honestly kinda liking Fall Guys. it's a pretty unique take on Battle Royales(when literally all of them are shooters and have really worn thin) and I want it to come to Switch pls.

It does kind of interest me, but after watching the tsunami of videos that Alpharad posted on it I feel like I've seen the entire game 50 times over.

EDIT: Maybe I'll try it if they add more minigames.

Also I kinda want a Mario costume, because why not. TF2 scout is a thing in Fall Guys so it's not like its off the table lol

There's also a Bullet Kin costume.

 

[SNEKeater]

Hades just got announced for Switch, I can say it's a really cool game. I recommend it. It's nice that it has cross-save with PC.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I love Celeste and the Blind Forest, I mean Evergate.







(Seriously though it does look pretty cool).

 

[MooMew64]

GOOSE TIME

A free two player update for Untitled Goose Game, eh? That's pretty cool.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

that’s it? No Silksong?

(Really tho, I’m a bit surprised)

 

[CapitaineCrash]

that’s it? No Silksong?

(Really tho, I’m a bit surprised)

I think Silksong is big enough to be in a general direct if we have one later.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Hypnospace is an amazing game pff

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I think Silksong is big enough to be in a general direct if we have one later.

Would you say Gunvolt 3, Ori 2 and Deltarune ch 2 are also “big” enough for a general?

 

[Dr. Yatagarasu]

Hypnospace is an amazing game pff

Netscape Navigator for smash confirmed?

 

[Jerry98]

Meanwhile, my hype for the Indie Direct is getting bigger:

Well... let's pretend this never happened

 

[Goombaic]

I wanted bugs and got honked instead ****.

Still had some good games in there, but I honestly thought Subnautica was already on the Switch lol.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Netscape Navigator for smash confirmed?

Only if they come with the Granny Creams Hot Butter Ice Cream song

 

[SKX31]

Overall a pretty strong Indie World. I liked that a lot of different genres got the spotlight and the games didn't feel too same-y overall. Manifold Garden looks especially interesting IMHO, but then again I really liked Portal.

Also:

Very cool to see Raji: An Ancient Epic at the Nintendo Indie Direct.

Here is a great article from @RishiAlwani on the game and how it was made.https://t.co/vWuJmDpk4W

— Daniel Ahmad (@ZhugeEX) August 18, 2020

 

[StrangeKitten]

It's been rumored that indie devs will be handed the reigns of old Nintendo IPs, so my one hope for the indie Direct is to see a previously-dead IP get revived.

I did not receive my hope. A small price to pay for a surprise Untitled Goose announcement that got a good chuckle out of me

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Damn, can't believe the Ice Climbers will get an echo fighter being the two geese in Untitled Goose.

 

[Aetheri]

No Silksong or Axiom Verge...but


SUBNAUTICA!!? LESS ****ING GOOOOOO!!!

 

[DarthEnderX]

Well, like I thought the Direct was a bunch of Steam games.

To be fair, who would say that DQ is a "must have" because Erdrick got leaked?

Me.

 

[ForsakenM]

Oh, lots of quotes! Well, more than I expected to be honest. I've been lead to believe that I would get no likes at all, no quotes and just a bunch of replies denouncing everything I said because 'biased Geno fan'. Thus I am very pleased to have actual discussion, even if there was a fair share of taking only one small point of my post and denouncing that while saying nothing else of value. You all know who you are, and while I don't hate you, that is surely no way to have a discussion.

Before I respond to these quotes I must stress something, and that is that I apologize for being so wordy with my post, but that is how I am. If you asked how my trip to the store went, most guys would say 'It was fine' but I would give you a detailed description of the whole event including both the drive there and back.

Also, since 7Nator is a friendly, I will address the posts of those who I never see in the Geno thread first, as it's honestly more fun that way.

This "fan request" stuff never sits right with me because it applies to so many more characters than the slots we have left. And of course, the ones people point to are always super western-centric like Geno, Isaac, Lloyd, etc.

Would you believe that Arle is the Geno of Japan as far as demand goes? In that case, what makes Geno more deserving than her in this alleged time of "ALL FAN REQUESTS GET HONORED!", and from a developer that seems to favor Japan as far as fan requests go anyway (Sakurai said Ninjara was considered as opposed to Twintelle who is the more popular of the two worldwide)? What about Ayumi Tachibana, another character Sakurai has directly mentioned, but decided against because demand is non-existent outside a certain region (sound familiar, doesn't it)? And speaking of stuff directly mentioned by Sakurai, why completely ignore a character like 2B, seeing as Nier Automata has been mentioned by him far more recently than Geno?

This "four horseman of fan demand!" thing with K Rool, Ridley, Banjo and Geno has always been dumb and is extremely reductive toward fanbases that aren't Geno, and this weird rewriting of history that people will beat you over with the idea "IT WAS ALWAYS THOSE 4!" only started after Banjo got in. I lived through the Brawl days too, so don't hit me with that nonsense.

Also, the full confidence 100% and flexing information that you supposedly have but can't give certainly contributes to why some aren't crazy about Geno threadgoers. It's like you're just repackaging stuff Fatman has said. I assume you became one of his confidants and are spreading the good word of his church? All of the circumstantial evidence you brought forth can be argued against, which is why putting anyone at 100% will always be nonsense.

Ah, so this is about saying that Geno is a fan favorite and/or the last of the big requests from Brawl. Well, we need to be honest with ourselves here.

Not every character is requested equally. Some characters are wanted more than others, and Geno is at the top of that request list. I mentioned it in my list of talking points, but there isn't a single Square character more requested than Geno other than perhaps Sora, who has his own issues. When it comes to non-Square characters, there still aren't many who are more requested, especially not within the Smash community.

Sure, Arle has demand, but did you forget that Geno was highly requested back in the day in Japan? Just because he doesn't quite top polls now (official ones by the way, of which there are way less than unofficial polls, and even then polls tend to be inaccurate for a number of reasons) doesn't mean Japanese Smash fans don't want him anymore. It just means there are newer characters that Japan loves a lot is all.

Saying that a character or a group of characters is the most requested and therefore should get in isn't reductive of other characters, it's simply telling things how it is. Is saying that Pikachu, Charizard, Mewtwo and Lucario are the most popular Pokemon and thus should get into most Pokemon games reductive of the other 800 some Pokemon? No, it's simply stating that there are favorites and those should be catered to if the devs care about how the fans feel. Not everyone can be a winner, not everyone can be the most requested, and if you have to pick between the most requested and the second or third most requested, if at all possible I feel like you would pick the most requested. It pleases the largest amount of people, which is something you should want to do.

Ayumi sounds like a Takumaru case, which I find personally sad because I'd like to see more Japan-exclusive stuff ship overseas. Neither of these compare to Geno though, who has worldwide Smash demand, albeit only within the Smash fanbase and not so much outside it.

Also you are incorrect about Twintelle: Ms. Thicc was beaten by both Min Min and Ninjara in the official favorite character poll they did, those two being the most popular female and male character respectively. Sure, I mentioned polls are often inaccurate, but Min Min's reception seems to suggest that isn't the case here. All Twintelle really had going for her as far as I saw was being THIIICCCCC and being a minority group representative, neither of which were enough for either the poll nor Smash it would seem.

Oh, and no, I'm not some cult worshiper of Fatmanonice. That doesn't exist and is just something you made up in your mind to appease your own narrative of Geno fans. He's a solid dude that I can't wait to duke it out with when Geno inevitably becomes playable who has loved the character for roughly as long as I have, but I often encourage people to remember that what he says is his opinion with information he is given that is mixed with personal conjecture and not true reliable leaks. He's leaked a few things, but he's also been massively wrong, but he's not really a leaker so there you go. Also, if all my points can be argued against, why did you only argue against one or two?

Also, I can't believe you think Lloyd is purely Western-centric when Tales Of is big in Japan and they are actively trying to promote and increase player base over here. You know, I've heard there is a game you can get your character in that will help with that...

Can I be real with you for a sec?

If you want Geno fans to be popular in threads that aren't the Geno thread you need to stop saying stuff like this. Cause well, he blatantly isn't the only huge Brawl era pick left and the narrative you're trying to push is both incorrect and insulting to other long time fanbases.

Of the four you mentioned, ,Geno, only two were major and super visible requests back then.

Ridley and Geno were major requests, with Ridley arguably being the most popular first party request that didn't get in.

Banjo was seen as an impossibility and the majority of third party requests went to Sonic and sometimes Mega Man (Sonic outright winning the Nsider poll and Mega Man being cited by Sakurai as the second most popular third party request). Now its entirely possible (and likely) this was a Cloud situation where people wanted the character but never brought it up, but the point remains, Banjo wasn't brought up very much. It wasn't until the Smash Ballot that he started to become a prominent figure.
King K. Rool was not a huge Brawl pick. He wasn't even seen as likely until after Brawl. And there's a very simple reason for that. We still didn't have Diddy Kong at the time and Diddy took nearly all of the DK fan's attention. After Diddy, DK fans became a bit tamer in their support and K.Rool requests didn't start really ramping up until Brawl was released. He always had his fans, but pre-Smash 4 was where he became a super popular request. @BKupa666 I think you can explain that Diddy was the big Brawl request better than I can.

To call Banjo and K.Rool, Brawl era requests is half truth. But that's not the thing I REALLY take issue with.

What about other super popular Brawl requests that have stuck around for decades? Isaac is a huge character that is still waiting for his chance. Krystal was an absolute titan in the Brawl scene and was really big pre-smash 4. Lyn was a huge request in Brawl and while people have soured over Fire Emblem characters, there's still a strong support base there. What about Bomberman? His fanbase has been around forever and has always been pretty big. It was even bigger back then when the series got games frequently. Midna was a huge request too and the recent release of Twilight Princess and has remained popular. Speaking of Zelda, Skull Kid is also a huge Brawl era request that stuck around. Do they not exist? Are they magically not big enough? Do they not count because they're assist trophies? Do their support threads not have enough posts? What about characters that were popular requests from Smash 4 onward? Are they lesser?

There are tons of popular characters. To act like Geno is the last long time request is insulting to other fanbases. He's not even close to being the last popular Brawl request and the only people saying that are Geno fans. There's almost never a last one because fans keep moving on the the next one. The part that really frustrates me is that fanbases say that kind of thing to try and latch on to other character's confirmations.

After got confirmed, there was a lot of, "oh we gotta get the other reptile villain in," and after was revealed it became "we gotta get Banjo to complete the three never-evers." After was revealed, suddenly its a group of four now and Geno is the last one. See what I mean? There is nothing wrong with moving on to other characters or wanting all of them at the same time. But to pretend that somehow, one character is somehow the last important one is a common trick used be supporters to make their character seem more likely than they are. The buck doesn't stop with Geno and to imply it does makes other fanbases feel insulted.

Now I ultimately agree with you. I think Geno is more likely than not. I also agree that Geno fans get ** on a lot more than most of them deserve. Some of the comments I've seen in other place are... let's just say, not nice and uncalled for. But if you really want other fanbases to like you, this kind of thinking's gotta go. The Ridley thread tried this kind of ** back in Smash 4, and it ended very badly for them. "The last Nintendo All-Star" was thrown around a lot, and I think we all agree that nowadays its a silly statement. I don't want the Geno fanbase to be like that.

So I will honestly say that my memory in general gets hazy, and that includes my time actively on Brawl Dojo and in Brawl speculation forums. So I will easily suggest that you could easily be completely right and that King K. Rool and B&K were never really talked about in the Brawl days as much as other characters like Isaac or perhaps Rayman or Bandanna Dee or Krystal.

I feel as though I remember the 4 Yonko being talked about a lot during that time right before Sonic's reveal and even more so afterwards, but I could easily be wrong or just perhaps my bias of what threads I took part in. It's hard for me to say in all honesty.

In that regard, I can change this from 'The Big Four from Brawl' to 'The Big Four for Smash' and be much better off. I of course once again acknowledge there are other characters that have been requested for an extended period or time, but there are four who have withstood the tests of time better than the rest and I honestly feel that will be what gets all four of them in.

Now that you bring it up, I feel as though I remember Krystal being really hyped up then. I feel as I remember Lyn and Bomberman as well (I would have loved a playable Bomberman btw, huge fan of the games) but the Zelda characters must have missed me due to bias as I have yet to get into the LoZ franchise.

Who I really remember is Isaac and Rayman, and I pity my Isaac Golden Brothers In Arms, but it seems as though their support was just not vocal enough for Nintendo to know that they cared up until his AT returned in Ultimate. I have no idea why that is the case, I just know that it played out that way. They've gotten much more vocal since then and I hope that their franchise gets revived just as much as I hope that SMRPG gets revived so that they can finally be rewarded for their wait much like us Geno fans.

I guess I should clarify (though I feel like I have in both of these responses, but alas) that I don't actively wish against characters unless it's Jonesy or Tracer because I know how it feels to have people dislike you simply because of the character you want. When I say that Geno is at the top of the list, it's because I've taken into consideration where the other characters that people want fall and where their support is at and for how long. I gather up the facts and Geno just happens to be going super strong right now. He's not the only one going strong either, but he's definitely going stronger than most of the other Brawl favorites.

So I will admit defeat on using Brawl Four as a narrative and stick with just the Titans of Smash Speculation in terms of being big and staying big over time. I will say the reason why it seems to be these four is because of how impossible all of them seemed to be combined with how much people wanted them. When people really want something but think it's so impossible, they will either give up and move on or keep going and drum up excitement at the possibility.

Personally, I hope that we eventually get all the big picks from back in the day. I'd love to see my Golden Brothers In Arms get their wish, and I've been rooting for Rayman fans a lot recently. Also I truly don't care if the Geno fanbase is liked or not, as that seems trivial in terms of goals. Geno fans will always have hate no matter how hard we do or don't fight for evidence of him getting in. The facts are that if you support a character people is irrelevant, they will point and laugh at you. When it starts to become more likely they will bash on you more because they think you have someone robbed them of a 'real character'.

Thus, I won't hide my confidence.

Glad that you coming into the Newcomer Thread

And I do agree with good amount of points, especially about Sora. While I don't think he's Impossible, I would be very Surprised if he got in. Disney does have relationship with Nintendo and has worked with them, but I don't exactly know if Disney and Sakurai are good combination, considering how Restricting Disney could be and how Sakurai states he needs alot of control over the character. it could happen though

However Since you Called Geno Inevitable, I'm gonna have to call out some points of yours. He's Still very Likely in my opinion and I have him in my prediction list (For now), but there are some things i disagree with

1. Cacomallow. It hasn't been truly disproved, but honestly there's nothing that Proves the leak is real either. it's caught in a grey are.

-Nintendo Never took down the Video when it was uploaded to Youtube, which is kind of a red flag

-I think there was something about the post actually originating from a Ulimate Mod french Discord. I'm not sure about that one so I'm gonna have to research that, but if true that's something to consider

-Vault boy I'd actually say's makes the leak look more fake actually. If the Cacodemon was Ready this whole time (since the video came out in November), It would have been wise to release that costume with Vault Boy. Vault Boy being put in the latest Mii Pack kinda makes it seems like that's all Bethasda is gonna get. if true that's not good for the leak, and I think it's likely that's what may happen

2. The Lack of Geno's Mii costume. It's suspicious yes, but I wouldn't 100% say that it will lead to him being Playable. I don't think they will just wait all thiis time to bring his old Costume back, but there is a Possiblity that they could make him a Premium Costume. He does check of alot of the flags that could point to a character being a Premium, and if the Costume looks especially nice, they might actually make it seem like a big deal and reveal it later on

Take how they waited to the Last minute to reveal Isaac's Return as an Assist Trophy. I believe i heard that Nintendo thought that would be hype for him to be return. Now I think they may have learned their lesson from that, but if they didn't then I could see them making a Really Nice Premium Costume and then showing it off later as a Hype surprise.

3.Speaking of Isaac, wasn't he also really talked about during Brawl. I notice it in the Geno thread alot, but you guys kind of neglect to mention Isaac when talking about the "Brawl Hypeman" even if Geno gets in, Isaac will still be left out. And honestly, for the Longest time he's had a more consistent Support than Geno. Geno from what I heard kinda started to die off during the era of Smash 4, up until his costume showed up in the DLC. Isaac just got bigger during that Period, especially since his AT decided not to show up that game

4. Dragon Ball fighterZ is not the best example to bring up. When I said that most of the characters added to Fighter was requested in the Geno thread, I did not mean that as a sign of Geno. Roshi was requested, but I wouldn't have called him the most requested Character, Especially when there were characters like Jiren and UI Goku

Dragon Ball doesn't really work as well because it's a contained game, in that it only contains the Dragon Ball universe. There are alot of Characters being brought up for DLC for FighterZ. Like i said, the only characters that were more Niche requests were Base Goku and Vegeta (in the West), Videl, and GT Goku (because people want OG DB Kid Goku)

Tekken I would say is better example cause that games does guests and is not 100% contained. Kiryu, despite being the most requested guest fighter for Tekken 7 hasn't gotten in yet, but we will have to see, I believe there was a hint for him for Season 4. They did put Geese back in season 1 and they have been bringing back Veterans like Anna and Lei, so they do listen. All I'm saying is that Dragon Ball and Smash are Way Different Scenarios and such

Personally you should have brought up stuff like the Mii Costume guy, and maybe the Legacy XP takedown, though we did discuss Legacy XP takedown here and a lot of people here were skeptical about that. still I think it would help your points and such. I think those two points are more Valuable than Cacomallow is right now I would say. that's all, good post, Keep expressing

Hey bud, I'm relatively glad to be here. I may stick around for a while because I've already seen people mention things here that I've never seen in the Geno thread and I'm always up for seeing what is on people's minds. I mean, the dude who did the music topic was all about W101 and I loved that game to bits back in 2009.

Allow me to format this similar to how you did just for clarity's sake.

1. When it comes to leaks, not being disproven is honestly the best it can be at right up until there is official news that either proves or disproves it. So, not being disproven for so long that it has been relatively forgotten is actually a good thing for CacoMallow. This is what happened to the Ken Debug leak as well: people tried to disprove it, couldn't, moved on and forgot about and it turned out to be real. The only reason people don't talk about that more is because most people had accepted Ken happening at this point.
   
   -This is true, however you have to weigh the costs of taking down a video like this. If you do take it down it adds more rumor mill activity and possible credibility because you acknowledged it as important enough to deal with it. By ignoring it, Nintendo can easily take the approach of 'This is nothing at all and we don't care.' while it still being real while the Nintendo Ninjas hunt down the traitor in the shadows. I mean, most of speculation has forgotten or written it off as fake already. I doubt this would be the case if they took it down.
   
   -Burden of proof falls on you for that one, but I would be interested in seeing it regardless. I wish I could talk more about what I know, but once again, not at my discretion.
   
   -This is much like the Ubisoft costumes or the Heihachi costumes, in which there are two ways of looking at it. You can either glass-half-full it and say this proves that they have negotiated with them and that we could see more of this, or you can glass-half-empty it and say this proves that this is all we will get. Frankly, I go for the former because we have no idea how they decide to divvy up Mii Costumes in waves. Somtimes they have a theme, sometimes they don't, and sometimes they only kinda have a theme.
   
   
2. The difference here between Isaac and Geno is that Nintendo has been aware of Geno's demand for far longer it would seem. With Isaac they somehow didn't get the memo, but Nintendo has shown they know about Geno's demand, which would make a Premium Mii Costume essentially a slap in the face. Also, Square is kinda notorious for getting their money's worth out of their IPs, which is why I mentioned Geno being relegated to a Premium Mii Costume makes little sense. That would involve completely redoing the costume when Square could just make money on slapping the original back into the game. It would also likely mean including a music track, which is extra content without making extra money, something Square isn't keen on.
   
   It seems you didn't have anything about me mentioning Geno's likeness already being negotiated for the base game with his Spirit and Icon. To me, this is strong evidence that Geno will not come back as a costume unless it returns with him as a character, because the costume would have already be negotiated for as well at the time and then revealed later...but why would you wait over a year for something like that when you have had multiple opportunities to reveal it and make money from it? Wouldn't it make more sense that it wasn't negotiated for because it's not coming back rather than waiting so long to show it?
   
   
3. I think I've talked about this enough in my others responses, but I heard the opposite: both Geno and Isaac lost support when Golden Sun tracks were found in Smash 4 but with no AT. The rallying campaigning wasn't enough and the message got mixed up with Isaac's AT returning in Ultimate.
   
   
4. Dragon Ball FighterZ is the perfect example to bring up for what my point was, which is that heavily-demanded characters are an inevitability when the dev team for the game cares and listens, but it will always take time. Tekken is a good example of this as well as it wasn't until their second pass of characters that they really dug into the fan requests.
   
   To clarify, my whole point was that if the devs care and you are vocal as a fanbase, it will happen. You will have to wait until they can manage it, but it will happen. This is why I say that Ridley, King K. Rool, Simon, Hero and Banjo were all inevitable as well. This is why I say Geno is inevitable. I would argue that all the characters who are matching Geno in vocal support or surpassing him are also inevitable, like Sora for example. Hell, with all the fuss he caused and the support he's still got, Waluigi is inevitable.
   
   When I say this, I don't mean they are all coming in FP2. I don't mean they are all coming in Ultimate. What I mean is that they will be in Smash eventually simple because Sakurai and his team cares.
   
   However, I think you should all consider them coming Ultimate rather than the next Smash game. Why do I say this?
   
   Because the new trend for fighting games is to make a game that is well-received (mostly, anyway. Lookin at you SFV and MvCI.) and then constantly add more characters to the game while balancing the game consistently and adding to core mechanics to freshen it up. SFV is on Season 5 and Tekken 7 is on Season 4. SFV launched in 2016 and Tekken 7 launched in 2015! This is a crazy awesome trend that has been showed a lot of vocal and monetary support: gamers in the FGC would rather have a really good game they love be updated with new or returning awesome characters with cool mechanics and have the game updated at it's core than buy a new game every couple years that may or may not be too different from it's predecessors to be enjoyable (MK11's reception anyone?).
   
   Two seasons of DLC used to be the limit, but now we are breaking into the territory of 4 or 5 seasons. Imagine Ultimate having even more seasons as well, just adding onto it instead of cutting for a new game for as long as it can. Honestly it really is the best way to go about things.
   
   I'm not going to hate on Mii Costume Guy but it's been some time yet and we haven't seen proof of his credibility. He knew nothing about Min Min and what she brought, so we have to wait and see for the next reveal but I will say I'm getting some Vergeben vibes here, and to clarify I mean Vergeben had a bunch of info for the base game but knew nothing about post-game despite running his mouth. I have a small worry that Mii Costume Guy might be the same, but for FP1 to FP2. I suppose we shall see.
   
   Also Legacy XP is much like the music takedowns, it doesn't mean all that much really.

 

[Deleted member]

If we're lucky, we'll hear on Friday about the announcement of the General Direct we've been waiting for since May.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

If we're lucky, we'll hear on Friday about the announcement of the General Direct we've been waiting for since May.

or, sometime next week if the General Direct is indeed, somehow, the 28th

 

[Perkilator]

Alright, let's play a game. Let's make an FP2 that mirrors FP1, with each slot having an equivalent between passes. Min Min can go wherever. Note that they don't necessarily have to be in release order. Also note that supposed obstacles in their way don't count here because of how unpredictable the choices for FP1 were, so Assist Trophies, Western companies, mature content, etc. don't matter here.

1. The Wild Card-Pretty much an excuse to do whatever, since FP2 has an extra slot.
2. The Outsider-A popular character, preferably from a modern smash hit but has little to no Nintendo appearances.
3. The Legend-A character from a massively popular and influential classic, much like the previous third-parties (Sans Bayonetta)
4. The Fan Favorite-A character who's pretty minor in the grand scheme of things, or at least hasn't seen much time in the spotlight recently, but is a popular pick regardless.
5. The Darkhorse-A character who's iconic yet niche, and is usually considered unlikely as a result. Bonus points if they aren't usually associated with Nintendo (Note that this character doesn't have to be completely overlooked, given how much speculation has expanded lately)
6. The Promotional Pick-A character from Switch-exclusive game. Note that you can't do a character who would promote a hypothetical release; It has to be an actual game. They do not have to be upcoming or in the past decade, either, nor do they have to be first-party.

In my case, I'll go with...

1. Wild Card-Min Min. Had to put her somewhere.
2. Outsider-2B. Nier: Automata was a smash hit and the breakthrough of both Platinum and Yoko Taro, but doesn't have a Switch port yet. Sounds pretty Joker-ish to me.
3. Legend-Crash Bandicoot. He was the PlayStation's mascot back in the day, even if he isn't owned by Sony, and he'd bring back the old console wars. Plus, he's discussed a lot lately, so he seems like a pretty safe choice for this spot.
4. Fan Favorite-Isaac. The guy's pretty much a first-party Banjo. Release in the late 90's/early 2000's era, an arguably improved sequel that's lesser-known, and a divisive 7th-generation sequel after a hiatus. Despite this, they've remained popular picks well into Ultimate's era (Though the AT did but a dent in Isaac's support).
5. Darkhorse-Reimu. Touhou's huge, and yet it isn't well-known beyond Japan and the doujin circles, leaving her to be passed over as a prospective rep in favor of Shantae (And probably Shovel Knight too, had it not been for the AT). Similarly, SNK's games were big influences on the fighting game scene and arcades, and yet they're not as popular beyond Latin America and the FGC.
6. Promotional Pick-Rex. XC2 sold surprisingly well for it's position, and helped Xenoblade break out of it's cult classic status. It's still promoted by MonoSoft and Rex is a popular request, especially in Japan.

Let's see what you do.

Is it okay if I make a whole thread using this template?

 

[StrangeKitten]

Because the new trend for fighting games is to make a game that is well-received (mostly, anyway. Lookin at you SFV and MvCI.) and then constantly add more characters to the game while balancing the game consistently and adding to core mechanics to freshen it up. SFV is on Season 5 and Tekken 7 is on Season 4. SFV launched in 2016 and Tekken 7 launched in 2015! This is a crazy awesome trend that has been showed a lot of vocal and monetary support: gamers in the FGC would rather have a really good game they love be updated with new or returning awesome characters with cool mechanics and have the game updated at it's core than buy a new game every couple years that may or may not be too different from it's predecessors to be enjoyable (MK11's reception anyone?).

While not impossible, I would be surprised to get more full fighter's passes. The Smash devs have been working on Smash for what, five or six years now with no breaks? If more passes do happen, I hope they take something like a year's break between this one and the next, maybe doing a balance patch or two but nothing else. But I'm honestly expecting FP2 to be the last one. I'd love to be wrong, of course

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Alright, let's play a game. Let's make an FP2 that mirrors FP1, with each slot having an equivalent between passes. Min Min can go wherever. Note that they don't necessarily have to be in release order. Also note that supposed obstacles in their way don't count here because of how unpredictable the choices for FP1 were, so Assist Trophies, Western companies, mature content, etc. don't matter here.

1. The Wild Card-Pretty much an excuse to do whatever, since FP2 has an extra slot.
2. The Outsider-A popular character, preferably from a modern smash hit but has little to no Nintendo appearances.
3. The Legend-A character from a massively popular and influential classic, much like the previous third-parties (Sans Bayonetta)
4. The Fan Favorite-A character who's pretty minor in the grand scheme of things, or at least hasn't seen much time in the spotlight recently, but is a popular pick regardless.
5. The Darkhorse-A character who's iconic yet niche, and is usually considered unlikely as a result. Bonus points if they aren't usually associated with Nintendo (Note that this character doesn't have to be completely overlooked, given how much speculation has expanded lately)
6. The Promotional Pick-A character from Switch-exclusive game. Note that you can't do a character who would promote a hypothetical release; It has to be an actual game. They do not have to be upcoming or in the past decade, either, nor do they have to be first-party.

In my case, I'll go with...

1. Wild Card-Min Min. Had to put her somewhere.
2. Outsider-2B. Nier: Automata was a smash hit and the breakthrough of both Platinum and Yoko Taro, but doesn't have a Switch port yet. Sounds pretty Joker-ish to me.
3. Legend-Crash Bandicoot. He was the PlayStation's mascot back in the day, even if he isn't owned by Sony, and he'd bring back the old console wars. Plus, he's discussed a lot lately, so he seems like a pretty safe choice for this spot.
4. Fan Favorite-Isaac. The guy's pretty much a first-party Banjo. Release in the late 90's/early 2000's era, an arguably improved sequel that's lesser-known, and a divisive 7th-generation sequel after a hiatus. Despite this, they've remained popular picks well into Ultimate's era (Though the AT did but a dent in Isaac's support).
5. Darkhorse-Reimu. Touhou's huge, and yet it isn't well-known beyond Japan and the doujin circles, leaving her to be passed over as a prospective rep in favor of Shantae (And probably Shovel Knight too, had it not been for the AT). Similarly, SNK's games were big influences on the fighting game scene and arcades, and yet they're not as popular beyond Latin America and the FGC.
6. Promotional Pick-Rex. XC2 sold surprisingly well for it's position, and helped Xenoblade break out of it's cult classic status. It's still promoted by MonoSoft and Rex is a popular request, especially in Japan.

Let's see what you do.

Promotional Pick - Min Min, she technically was one
Legend - Crash Bandicoot
Outsider - Master Chief
Fan Favorite - Bandana Dee
Dark Horse - Elma (could happen with Xenoblade X Definitive)
Wild Card - Neku Sakuraba

 

[N3ON]

In that regard, I can change this from 'The Big Four from Brawl' to 'The Big Four for Smash' and be much better off.

People would be even better off if they just abandoned trying to cull together some high-ranking trinity or quartet, since people have never really been able to accomplish it without it being riddled with revisionism.

As it is now, it's peddling a false narrative. If people did it correctly, the number of characters included would be large enough to make those within seem less special. There are probably around ten characters remaining from the Brawl era that still have notable popularity, who people are downplaying because most of them are currently ATs, and thus the fanbases are dormant - but not gone. They'll be at it again next time.

It makes me wonder if those who comment on the current lack of popularity a character has have actually been through the full Smash cycle before, because a lot of characters will have their demand rekindled once they become "eligible" again. Many of those previously popular ATs aren't just done being popular.

So, in truth, there is no quartet. There is no trinity. At least not one indicative of fifteen years of Smash. And if you want to call them titans of Smash speculation, you're going to have to widen that pantheon a fair bit, because it's not like Ridley, K. Rool, Geno and Banjo didn't have their own spells in which those fanbases minimized.

I mean Banjo was rarely raised seriously for like thirteen years. That's longer than the span from Brawl to Ultimate.

 

[The Rhythm Theif]

Alright, let's play a game. Let's make an FP2 that mirrors FP1, with each slot having an equivalent between passes. Min Min can go wherever. Note that they don't necessarily have to be in release order. Also note that supposed obstacles in their way don't count here because of how unpredictable the choices for FP1 were, so Assist Trophies, Western companies, mature content, etc. don't matter here.

1. The Wild Card-Pretty much an excuse to do whatever, since FP2 has an extra slot.
2. The Outsider-A popular character, preferably from a modern smash hit but has little to no Nintendo appearances.
3. The Legend-A character from a massively popular and influential classic, much like the previous third-parties (Sans Bayonetta)
4. The Fan Favorite-A character who's pretty minor in the grand scheme of things, or at least hasn't seen much time in the spotlight recently, but is a popular pick regardless.
5. The Darkhorse-A character who's iconic yet niche, and is usually considered unlikely as a result. Bonus points if they aren't usually associated with Nintendo (Note that this character doesn't have to be completely overlooked, given how much speculation has expanded lately)
6. The Promotional Pick-A character from Switch-exclusive game. Note that you can't do a character who would promote a hypothetical release; It has to be an actual game. They do not have to be upcoming or in the past decade, either, nor do they have to be first-party.

In my case, I'll go with...

1. Wild Card-Min Min. Had to put her somewhere.
2. Outsider-2B. Nier: Automata was a smash hit and the breakthrough of both Platinum and Yoko Taro, but doesn't have a Switch port yet. Sounds pretty Joker-ish to me.
3. Legend-Crash Bandicoot. He was the PlayStation's mascot back in the day, even if he isn't owned by Sony, and he'd bring back the old console wars. Plus, he's discussed a lot lately, so he seems like a pretty safe choice for this spot.
4. Fan Favorite-Isaac. The guy's pretty much a first-party Banjo. Release in the late 90's/early 2000's era, an arguably improved sequel that's lesser-known, and a divisive 7th-generation sequel after a hiatus. Despite this, they've remained popular picks well into Ultimate's era (Though the AT did but a dent in Isaac's support).
5. Darkhorse-Reimu. Touhou's huge, and yet it isn't well-known beyond Japan and the doujin circles, leaving her to be passed over as a prospective rep in favor of Shantae (And probably Shovel Knight too, had it not been for the AT). Similarly, SNK's games were big influences on the fighting game scene and arcades, and yet they're not as popular beyond Latin America and the FGC.
6. Promotional Pick-Rex. XC2 sold surprisingly well for it's position, and helped Xenoblade break out of it's cult classic status. It's still promoted by MonoSoft and Rex is a popular request, especially in Japan.

Let's see what you do.

Wild Card: Min Min. She's already out at this point, so...

Outsider: Geno. As much as I keep on saying that he can wait for his grand opportunity, I wouldn't mind seeing him in. If he doesn't get in though, that's alright too.

Legend: Arle Nadja or Zero (Z). Enough said.

Fan-Favorite: Bandanna Dee. See Geno for the description.

Dark Horse: Nakoruru. Another popular SNK character. Do I have to say anymore?

Promotional Pick: Rex. As much as I like to believe this might not happen, he's still a popular request, and XC2 is still promoted by MonolithSoft.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Alright, let's play a game. Let's make an FP2 that mirrors FP1, with each slot having an equivalent between passes. Min Min can go wherever. Note that they don't necessarily have to be in release order. Also note that supposed obstacles in their way don't count here because of how unpredictable the choices for FP1 were, so Assist Trophies, Western companies, mature content, etc. don't matter here.

Let's see what you do.

wild card: Don chan
Outsider: Sora
Legend:Yu Narukami
Fan-Fav: Layton
Darkhorse:Dante
Promo, Itsuki Aoi

 

[RaintheCriminalWhirlwind]

Alright, let's play a game. Let's make an FP2 that mirrors FP1, with each slot having an equivalent between passes. Min Min can go wherever. Note that they don't necessarily have to be in release order. Also note that supposed obstacles in their way don't count here because of how unpredictable the choices for FP1 were, so Assist Trophies, Western companies, mature content, etc. don't matter here.

1. The Wild Card-Pretty much an excuse to do whatever, since FP2 has an extra slot.
2. The Outsider-A popular character, preferably from a modern smash hit but has little to no Nintendo appearances.
3. The Legend-A character from a massively popular and influential classic, much like the previous third-parties (Sans Bayonetta)
4. The Fan Favorite-A character who's pretty minor in the grand scheme of things, or at least hasn't seen much time in the spotlight recently, but is a popular pick regardless.
5. The Darkhorse-A character who's iconic yet niche, and is usually considered unlikely as a result. Bonus points if they aren't usually associated with Nintendo (Note that this character doesn't have to be completely overlooked, given how much speculation has expanded lately)
6. The Promotional Pick-A character from Switch-exclusive game. Note that you can't do a character who would promote a hypothetical release; It has to be an actual game. They do not have to be upcoming or in the past decade, either, nor do they have to be first-party.

In my case, I'll go with...

1. Wild Card-Min Min. Had to put her somewhere.
2. Outsider-2B. Nier: Automata was a smash hit and the breakthrough of both Platinum and Yoko Taro, but doesn't have a Switch port yet. Sounds pretty Joker-ish to me.
3. Legend-Crash Bandicoot. He was the PlayStation's mascot back in the day, even if he isn't owned by Sony, and he'd bring back the old console wars. Plus, he's discussed a lot lately, so he seems like a pretty safe choice for this spot.
4. Fan Favorite-Isaac. The guy's pretty much a first-party Banjo. Release in the late 90's/early 2000's era, an arguably improved sequel that's lesser-known, and a divisive 7th-generation sequel after a hiatus. Despite this, they've remained popular picks well into Ultimate's era (Though the AT did but a dent in Isaac's support).
5. Darkhorse-Reimu. Touhou's huge, and yet it isn't well-known beyond Japan and the doujin circles, leaving her to be passed over as a prospective rep in favor of Shantae (And probably Shovel Knight too, had it not been for the AT). Similarly, SNK's games were big influences on the fighting game scene and arcades, and yet they're not as popular beyond Latin America and the FGC.
6. Promotional Pick-Rex. XC2 sold surprisingly well for it's position, and helped Xenoblade break out of it's cult classic status. It's still promoted by MonoSoft and Rex is a popular request, especially in Japan.

Let's see what you do.

1. The Outsider - 2B

2. Legend - The Dovahkiin.

3. Fan-Favorite - Sora

4. Darkhorse - Estelle Bright

5. Promotional - Min Min

6. Wildcard - Geno

 

[TheBeastHimself]

The day humankind has feared most: when the Geno thread and the DLC speculation thread cross paths, it's like being a novice chemist and carelessly mixing together hazardous chemicals. Part of me trusts that everyone will be mature and that we'll all learn something from a well spoken conversation, but the other part of me sees a war approaching.

As an active member of both threads, I'll say that as much as I'd like Geno because of my passion for Mario RPG games, I can't say that I share the same level of confidence as other Geno supporters. This is not to call out anyone in particular, but if you go into the Geno thread, it's a constant discussion of circumstantial evidence which triggers confirmation bias. The only real "substantial evidence" I would say that is in Geno's favor is that his support has withstood the test of time, recently reaching a boiling point, and that Sakurai expressed interest in the past.

Even then, Sakurai has expressed interest in a lot of characters joining Smash, it's not some Geno-exclusive club; ExciteBike, Heihachi, Urban Champion, Ayumi Tachibana, etc.

I think what non-Geno fans try to express to Geno fans is that there is a sense of elitism and entitlement surrounding the character, and to an extant, I can agree. I don't think some Geno fans realize this, they're just seeing that their favorite character is currently the most talked about on SmashBoards. I completely disagree with the idea that Geno is the current most-wanted character. The fact that he's so controversial while also has hype surrounding him might make him the most talked about character, but it's impossible to say he is the most-wanted.

I also disagree with the idea that Geno "is the last character that would make Ultimate complete." This is what pisses non-Geno fans off, because it's a completely subjective statement that's being presented in an objective light. It disregards the passion and years of supporting other characters and goes back around to that notion of elitism/entitlement. Geno is not better than any other character, he is not the most deserving and he is not the most wanted. You may disagree with me on that one, but that just proves that everything surrounding this character, and all Smash speculation characters, is subjectivity, and not objectivity. The idea that Geno is the last of anything is just one's belief/opinion so it does not hold any merit in discussion.

Lastly, I want to talk about Fatmanonice. Personally, I've never had any issues with the guy in the past. Our interactions have been nothing but friendly, and I do believe he is the glue that holds the Geno-thread camaraderie together. But that is a double-edged sword. Why? Because there are people in there that worship him as if he were a cult leader, and as much as others might disagree, I really don't think that is Fatman's wishes. Every time Fatman is optimistic, most of the thread becomes more optimistic. Every time Fatman states something he's heard from the grapevine, people more often than not give him the benefit of the doubt instead of taking his word with a grain of salt (something he has stated he wants people to do with his words in the past; people believe him, and then it snowballs into him having a "manipulative" and controversial reputation.)

All I'm trying to convey with this post is that this is why I'm a bit anxious to see the two threads mixing together. I want Geno fans to understand where non-Geno fans are coming from. I believe the explosion in Geno's popularity lead to some people developing a sense of grandeur, which hardly any other character supporters have. Nobody comes into this thread and says "well Krystal is extremely likely for 'x' 'y' and 'z' reasons, all the planets aligned in her favor so she would be the last big character to join Smash" because that's just flat out rude to a lot of people.

I love a lot of people in the Geno thread, and I don't think any of them are coming at discussion with a sense of malice in anyway, shape, or form, so I hope there are no bad feelings here. I just wanted to contribute to the ongoing discussion and express my opinions on the subject.

And with all that being said, here's hoping Geno gets into Ultimate!

 

[cosmicB]

Geno isn't western centric.

Point me to a high degree of demand from Japanese fans and I'll admit I'm wrong. It's certainly not on 2ch where other characters completely dominate the conversation.

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

Speaking as someone that mostly stepped back from speculation in favor of Blender shipposts and whose only interaction with the Geno thread was asking for help finding the Mii costume;