Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[cosmicB]

Namco didn’t have any DLC characters in 4 so Heihachi was dropped with Ryu, and I think Lloyd and Gil were around Cloud’s window if not WITH Cloud. They could save Lloyd and Gil for a different Namco character, but idk

anyway, Geno and Chocobo returning with Neku as playable. Best outcome for me cause Good GOD I wanted Neku in for the longest time

I think people really sleep on a Nomura pick, and Neku is certainly one if Sora isn't possible. People often forget that Sakurai and Nomura are good friends.

 

[Deleted member]

I still think about a hypothetical timeline where a Geno mii costume was revealed alongside Byleth.

The salt would be unimaginable.

Oh wow, I remember PapaGenos reaction to Byleth and it would have been so much worse if Geno's mii costume was actually revealed alongside Byleth.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I'm actually not sure which outcome would cause more outrage:

1. Geno costume returning alongside the most criticized DLC character so far.
2. Geno costume returning alongside F11.
3. Geno costume not returning at all.

As sad as it sounds, I think most of his supporters would prefer option #3 over the other two just because it's the "least disrespectful choice". The logic people have been using with ATs makes me believe they'd actually prefer that he not be in the game at all than to see him stuck as something that acknowledges his popularity but doesn't make him playable. Either way, I think Geno's supporters would be more mentally prepared for #2 and #3 as time went on. Then again, people have been claiming that he's one of the most likely characters since Ridley.

1&2 would probably outrage them the most. Idk how Isaac’s fans handled it when he was absent in any form by the time 4’s DLC ended but I imagine it wasn’t as ragey as the AT returning in Ult

 

[CannonStreak]

I'm actually not sure which outcome would cause more outrage:

1. Geno costume returning alongside the most criticized DLC character so far.
2. Geno costume returning alongside F11.
3. Geno costume not returning at all.

As sad as it sounds, I think most of his supporters would prefer option #3 over the other two just because it's the "least disrespectful choice". The logic people have been using with ATs makes me believe they'd actually prefer that he not be in the game at all than to see him stuck as something that acknowledges his popularity but doesn't make him playable. Either way, I think Geno's supporters would be more mentally prepared for #2 and #3 as time went on. Then again, people have been claiming that he's one of the most likely characters since Ridley.

All with evidence they have most likely twisted. When something comes up like the music takedowns, it could mean a number of reasons why that happened, but Geno fans just focus on thinking it means Geno and don't count the other possibilities, especially if it is associated with Geno. I mean, they even count Legacy being taken down as evidence, which is a mod that had Geno in it.

That said, I am worried if Geno does get in, Fatman will take the credit for "leaking" him, when his sources are doubtful and did not even mention anything about possible leakbait, and his predictions aren't even right most of the time. I mean, who wants the reveal of a character to be associated with someone who is not even reliable and could be not who he even seems to be?

 

[SpectreJordan]

Huh? Forgive me, but what did that have to do with what I said?

I mean you are correct, but still...

Sorry I must’ve quoted the wrong person on accident!

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

In my opinion that reason against Geno but I could be completely wrong because of Banjo getting in who many people born in the 2000s didn’t know who he was.

You're not wrong. In fact, Banjo & Kazooie have 1,000 legs up on Geno because even though their franchise is still currently dead, you can still play their games on modern consoles. Geno on the other hand has had like, two rereleases; one on the Wii, and one on the SNES Mini.

Loathe as I am to say it, there is literally 0 reason for them to add Geno as a character and there's a 99.9% chance that there never will be.

 

[CannonStreak]

Sorry I must’ve quoted the wrong person on accident!

That's fine. It does happen from time to time.

 

[SNEKeater]

It depends. Geno Mii Costume returning now would be quite... controversial. It isn't the same to get deconfirmed at the start of the first fighter pass in comparison to getting deconfirmed at the end of fighter pass 2, for example.

Similar to Isaac. The context is relevant. Isaac's AT caused outrage because they revealed it in the very last Smash Direct before the launch of Ultimate. Also, the Grinch leak didn't help at all, and the perception of "Ultimate is the time for fan favorites!" was really strong back then.

 

[Cosmic77]

Like every other character, we'll just have to wait and see how this plays out for Geno.

Ultimate is by far his best chance of getting in. If it's not now, then it'll be an uphill battle for him as he competes with cut characters once again in future titles.

1&2 would probably outrage them the most. Idk how Isaac’s fans handled it when he was absent in any form by the time 4’s DLC ended but I imagine it wasn’t as ragey as the AT returning in Ult

If I remember correctly, people were sad but not outraged that Isaac was cut in Smash 4. I think a lot of them saw it coming when other irrelevant ATs went missing too (Helirin, Barbara the Bat, Jill Dozer, etc.)

I feel bad for Sakurai, because the Isaac AT returning was likely him throwing a bone to Golden Sun fans. There really wasn't any reason why the franchise should've been treated any better than it was in Smash 4; nothing had happened to it in the time in between. Still, Sakurai brought Isaac back anyway, and no one appreciated it.

 

[CannonStreak]

It depends. Geno Mii Costume returning now would be quite... controversial. It isn't the same to get deconfirmed at the start of the first fighter pass in comparison to getting deconfirmed at the end of fighter pass 2, for example.

Similar to Isaac. The context is relevant. Isaac's AT caused outrage because they revealed it in the very last Smash Direct before the launch of Ultimate. Also, the Grinch leak didn't help at all, and the perception of "Ultimate is the time for fan favorites!" was really strong back then.

It has died down, right? Either way, I can see Geno's costume being in more likely than him being a playable character. In fact, the fact that his costume has not happened could mean a lot of things other than him coming as a playable. The Geno fans just don't want to take into account any other possibility. I think if Geno had a shot, whether or not they wanted to do Hero before him or not, he would have been in sooner. Plus, I think some of the evidence Geno fans brought up is rather outdated.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

The one scenario in which Geno becomes an actual contender: Nintendo decides to buy the SquareEnix parts of Super Mario RPG (aside from Culex) and uses the game to replace the Mario RPG hole that the Paper Mario and Mario & Luigi series left.


But of course, they wouldn't do that because having original characters in a Mario game isn't allowed anymore unless it's a mainline title. EDIT: And of course, the Mario & Luigi series is still right there, it just wouldn't be AlphaDream making the games.

 

[Cosmic77]

You're not wrong. In fact, Banjo & Kazooie have 1,000 legs up on Geno because even though their franchise is still currently dead, you can still play their games on modern consoles. Geno on the other hand has had like, two rereleases; one on the Wii, and one on the SNES Mini.

Loathe as I am to say it, there is literally 0 reason for them to add Geno as a character and there's a 99.9% chance that there never will be.

"Super Mario RPG is an incredibly fun game. However, it's worth mentioning that Geno's game cannot be played on the Switch. If you were not able to purchase SMRPG from the Wii Shop Channel before it permanently closed, I would highly recommend going on Ebay and purchasing a SNES Classic or the orginal SNES and a copy of SMRPG for a reasonable price."

*Staff laughs from the background.

 

[SNEKeater]

It has died down, right? Either way, I can see Geno's costume being in more likely than him being a playable character. In fact, the fact that his costume has not happened could mean a lot of things other than him coming as a playable. The Geno fans just don't want to take into account any other possibility. I think if Geno had a shot, whether or not they wanted to do Hero before him or not, he would have been in sooner. Plus, I think some of the evidence Geno fans brought up is rather outdated.

You ask about the whole Isaac thing, right? Yeah, I'd say so. Not gonna lie I was a bit pissed and disappointed when I saw hiw appearing as an assist trophy. But that happened almost 2 years ago. Not expecting him to be DLC to be honest, the only scenario I could see him getting in would be if we get a Golden Sun announcement.

About Geno I feel he's basically 50/50. But if he gets in, the Mii Costume could return as well. That wouldn't hurt anyone.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

If you could cut either Toon Link or Young Link (not both) to be replaced with a unique Zelda character outside the Tri-Force trio, which would it be and why? I'd say Young Link. Even though OOT and MM are my favorite Zelda games, Toon Link represents a more abstract sub-series that has a unique artstyle, which isnt something I can say about Young Link (considering he looks like a child version of practically every Link in existence.)

 

[CannonStreak]

You ask about the whole Isaac thing, right? Yeah, I'd say so. Not gonna lie I was a bit pissed and disappointed when I saw hiw appearing as an assist trophy. But that happened almost 2 years ago. Not expecting him to be DLC to be honest, the only scenario I could see him getting in would be if we get a Golden Sun announcement.

About Geno I feel he's basically 50/50. But if he gets in, the Mii Costume could return as well. That wouldn't hurt anyone.

Umm, yeah, except I was never talking about Isaac.

 

[Idon]

If you could cut either Toon Link or Young Link (not both) to be replaced with a unique Zelda character outside the Tri-Force trio, which would it be and why? I'd say Young Link. Even though OOT and MM are my favorite Zelda games, Toon Link represents a more abstract sub-series that has a unique artstyle, which isnt something I can say about Young Link (considering he looks like a child version of practically every Link in existence.)

Toon Link but only on the condition they turn Young Link into his Hyrule Warriors version where he shapeshifts between his normal self and the Fierce Deity.

Oh yeah, and I'd replace him with Ghirahim because Ghirahim is awesome.

 

[cosmicB]

I'm actually not sure which outcome would cause more outrage:

1. Geno costume returning alongside the most criticized DLC character so far.
2. Geno costume returning alongside F11.
3. Geno costume not returning at all.

As sad as it sounds, I think most of his supporters would prefer option #3 over the other two just because it's the "least disrespectful choice". The logic people have been using with ATs makes me believe they'd actually prefer that he not be in the game at all than to see him stuck as something that acknowledges his popularity but doesn't make him playable. Either way, I think Geno's supporters would be more mentally prepared for #2 and #3 as time went on. Then again, people have been claiming that he's one of the most likely characters since Ridley.

I feel like 3 is more likely than people think.

Fan speculation comes up with all these crazy conspiracy theories in general, but sometimes the answer is as simple as "hey, the developer wasn't willing to play ball, sorry guys". We have a ton of stuff that's basically equivalent from what we hear in Sakurai interviews.

That said, I am worried if Geno does get in, Fatman will take the credit for "leaking" him, when his sources are doubtful and did not even mention anything about possible leakbait, and his predictions aren't even right most of the time. I mean, who wants the reveal of a character to be associated with someone who is not even reliable and could be not who he even seems to be?

Hasn't he said he's going away when/if Geno gets in? That'd be annoying if he tries to hold this over people when his theorycrafting likely had zero to do with Geno's inclusion.

 

[SNEKeater]

Umm, yeah, except I was never talking about Isaac.

My bad then, I misunderstood your post

 

[Rikarte]

You're not wrong. In fact, Banjo & Kazooie have 1,000 legs up on Geno because even though their franchise is still currently dead, you can still play their games on modern consoles. Geno on the other hand has had like, two rereleases; one on the Wii, and one on the SNES Mini.

Loathe as I am to say it, there is literally 0 reason for them to add Geno as a character and there's a 99.9% chance that there never will be.

I don't see how promoting a 20 year old game that is only playable on a rival console is much different from promoting a 20 year old game that's not playable at all tbh. Besides, if Geno were to get into Smash they could most likely just drop SMRPG for NSO with him.
He and Banjo are absolutely not in the same boat but they have similar issues.

 

[CannonStreak]

I feel like 3 is more likely than people think.

Fan speculation comes up with all these crazy conspiracy theories in general, but sometimes the answer is as simple as "hey, the developer wasn't willing to play ball, sorry guys". We have a ton of stuff that's basically equivalent from what we hear in Sakurai interviews.



Hasn't he said he's going away when/if Geno gets in? That'd be annoying if he tries to hold this over people when his theorycrafting likely had zero to do with Geno's inclusion.

How was his theorycrafting not related to Geno, may I ask?

 

[TheBeastHimself]

Toon Link but only on the condition they turn Young Link into his Hyrule Warriors version where he shapeshifts between his normal self and the Fierce Deity.

Oh yeah, and I'd replace him with Ghirahim because Ghirahim is awesome.

Could you imagine a Young Link moveset where he uses his Deku Mask, Goron Mask, and Zora Mask as his specials, alongside Fierce Deity? I never understood why Young Link always had to be a Link clone considering how much Majora's Mask sets him apart from his other incarnations.

 

[CannonStreak]

My bad then, I misunderstood your post

Don't worry! It's already okay!

 

[Perkilator]

In general, if your character becomes too popular, they get deemed as overrated. In some ways, it's better to have a smaller pick.

PREACH. That's exactly why I support characters with smaller popularity.

 

[N3ON]

How was his theorycrafting not related to Geno, may I ask?

It's always been related to Geno, it's just that he's posited that Geno has been around the corner for a very long time, and has been wrong on, well, every occasion so far. So if Geno is eventually included, some will treat him as informed when really him claiming Geno's imminence for such a duration suggests the exact opposite. He wouldn't be right so much as he'd just be lucky, and people would inevitably confuse the two.

 

[CannonStreak]

It's always been related to Geno, it's just that he's posited that Geno has been around the corner for a very long time, and has been wrong on, well, every occasion so far. So if Geno is eventually included, some will treat him as informed when really him claiming Geno's imminence for such a duration suggests the exact opposite. He wouldn't be right so much as he'd just be lucky, and people would inevitably confuse the two.

Even then, pushing the goalpost back hurts any leaker more than it helps them. I mean, If you have been wrong on every occasion, not to mention have a history of false predictions, you're basically not credible. I don't know how Geno fans can't seem to not recognize this, other than the fact that what he says is what they want to hear. Speaking of, just because it is what they want to hear, does not mean he is right.

 

[Idon]

Could you imagine a Young Link moveset where he uses his Deku Mask, Goron Mask, and Zora Mask as his specials, alongside Fierce Deity? I never understood why Young Link always had to be a Link clone considering how much Majora's Mask sets him apart from his other incarnations.

Same reason Ganondorf is still Mr. Punchy-kicky I presume. Smash nostalgia/familiarity dictates that you shouldn't really change a moveset too much across games as to not alienate fans of that character's moveset.

Also I imagine there's the practical issue of loading 4 models onto one character and having him seamlessly switch between those models in quick succession which would be difficult to code into the game properly, especially if there's 8 on-screen at once.

 

[Guynamednelson]

While Geno I don't know if I'd call Geno "final Brawl all-star", it is kinda clear he outlasted his contemporaries from the era that still aren't in the game in terms of maintaining popularity and discussion.

Takamaru hasn't really been discussed since he got AT'd. Starfy's series is in the ground and is thusly rarely heard of for Smash. Lyn has largely become a non-presence in speculation as her game gets older and the roster gets more modern Fire Emblem characters. Goroh and Krystal have both been tied down to assist trophies and haven't appeared since the mid 2000's and thusly have lost a lot of common support. Midna had a very brief resurgence thanks to Twilight Princess HD but quickly fell after that. Same deal with Skull Kid and the Loz leak. Paper Mario's still around and is seen as somewhat likely, but has lost a lot of his appeal among the core fanbase.

The only character that's really came close to keeping up with Geno in terms of fan demand from the era is Issac. Even then, Isaac has fallen on somewhat hard times thanks to Golden Sun effectively being dead and the contentious fact that he's an assist trophy. He's still pretty popular, but its hard to say he's really the juggernaut he was during Ultimate's pre-release.

Geno, similarly, kind of died after Brawl released. In fact, he died earlier than most of the characters previously mentioned, most of whom had some presence during Smash 4's pre-release. Where Geno benefitted was the fact he essentially came back from the dead, as his Mii Costume and Sakurai's statements showed that he wasn't quite the longshot that many thought he would be. That, combined with Ultimate's before-mentioned trend of giving massive fan favourites their due and the simple fact that people naturally like the character, allowed Geno to grow into the undeniable juggernaut he is right now.

Honestly it's kind of sad that Geno is the only one still really present in modern speculation. You could say he's the most likely, but these characters all have similar amounts of obstacles to overcome:

• Geno is owned by Square-Enix, who might prefer a more relevant/mainstream character from their library getting in, assuming Nintendo is even making another deal with SE for a fighter
• Takamaru is dependent on whether or not The Mysterious Murasame Castle ever comes to NES Online, and yes, I mean NES and not just Famicom
• Starfy is dependent on them trying again to make Starfy popular worldwide, and not just ignoring Europe this time
• Lyn is dependent on them either remaking FE7 or Nintendo thinking there needs to be an FE challenger pack more catered towards FE Heroes and the fighter not being one of its OCs
• Most F-Zero fans switched from Goroh to Black Shadow, I don't even need to mention the status of the franchise
• Nintendo doesn't want to acknowledge the Star Fox games Krystal's in
• Paper Mario needs to hope The Origami King doesn't get a spirit event
• I'm not even sure if they'd think there's enough missing content from TP/MM for a challenger pack, even if the amount of songs from both games isn't even equal to the music from Hero's pack
• Isaac is dependent on them wanting to acknowledge the AT backlash and/or those Golden Sun trademarks going anywhere

 

[RetroBro]

Do polls really matter in the long-run? Even big name polls, do they cover the vast majority of the Smash fanbase? I also believe there is a difference between the Smash fanbase and the mainstream fanbase, the mainstream fanbase taking up 90% of Smash players (basically, people who play Smash casually and aren't too big into gaming/speculation.)

I'd argue they do since they've determined some entries into smash. K Rool, Ridley, Bayo, and Banjo probably being the most prominent examples.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

Although I'm still gonna lurk, I think talking here today made me realize I need a break from the Geno thread. There's a lot of diversity of opinion here which I can appreciate, I love general threads on forums and I love the debates that come out of them because (usually) everyone learns a lot more than they would have if they stayed in a thread specific to one topic.

The Geno thread has always been a cycle of:

Circumstantial evidence --> confirmation bias --> Fatman throws out ideas --> Nintendo Direct announced --> this is Geno's time --> it's not Geno time --> back to talking about circumstantial evidence

The same thing since I've been on this site for the past 2, almost 3, years. No disrespect to anyone in the Geno thread, I just need a breather. I'll be back if Geno is either confirmed or deconfirmed, but I'll still probably occasionally post there because I love so many people there.

 

[cosmicB]

How was his theorycrafting not related to Geno, may I ask?

As in he would be right Geno is in, but for the wrong reasons. Like the Legacy XP mod for example could be completely irrelevant to Geno's inclusion if he does get in.

 

[CannonStreak]

As in he would be right Geno is in, but for the wrong reasons. Like the Legacy XP mod for example could be completely irrelevant to Geno's inclusion if he does get in.

Exactly! The evidence is just being twisted by him and other Geno fans. There are more reasons as to why each piece of evidence is there or happened and does not necessarily relate to Geno.

 

[Deleted member]

Geno on the other hand has had like, two rereleases; one on the Wii, and one on the SNES Mini.

"Super Mario RPG is an incredibly fun game. However, it's worth mentioning that Geno's game cannot be played on the Switch. If you were not able to purchase SMRPG from the Wii Shop Channel before it permanently closed, I would highly recommend going on Ebay and purchasing a SNES Classic or the orginal SNES and a copy of SMRPG for a reasonable price."

*Staff laughs from the background.

Uh..... does the Wii U, like, not exist?

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Uh..... does the Wii U, like, not exist?

I mean it's the Wii U, so it might as well not

 

[chocolatejr9]

Uh..... does the Wii U, like, not exist?

Let me see...

NES
SNES
N64
Gamecube
Wii
Switch

No, I don't remember that one.

(Please note this is meant to be a joke).

 

[Dinoman96]

Uh..... does the Wii U, like, not exist?

At this point, it may as well not

edit: man everyone made this joke already

 

[Dr. Yatagarasu]

Uh..... does the Wii U, like, not exist?

The day every Wii U game is ported to the switch, every Wii U ever manufactured will spontaneously combust, thus completing Nintendo's mission of erasing that period of time from history.
More seriously, I had no idea that SMRPG was on the WIi U

 

[CannonStreak]

About Geno, there seems to be a drought of things that could significantly help with or hint at Geno being in Ultimate, like a SMRPG rerelease or even a remake, as well as anything official from Nintendo or Square-Enix about Geno. Even Fatmanonice did say his sources did not say Geno is in yet. Anyway, I don't think the "evidence" alone, being twisted by fans aside, is going to help Geno make it in.

 

[7NATOR]

I Would just like to mention the fan polls (since they were Talked about)

I believe the biggest Fan Poll out had around 50,000 Votes or so from what i remember, but it could be from that to 100,000

The Official Smash Ballot had 1.8 Million votes

Super Smash Bros. Fighter Ballot garnered 1.8 million votes worldwide

Super Smash Bros. director Masahiro Sakurai revealed an interesting tidbit about the Fighter Ballot for the Wii U and 3DS games in his Famitsu column this week. In his piece, Sakurai states that about 1.8 million votes were cast worldwide. Nintendo announced Bayonetta as the Super Smash Bros...

nintendoeverything.com

I mean i still think Fan Polls are important, but there still is alot of the puzzle missing

In regards to what the more casual fanbase wants, you got to remember that Alot of them probably don't give that much of a hoot of who specifically gets in. I'm sure many others do have specific characters in mind, but i bet alot Doesn't care that much

 

[The Rhythm Theif]

wrong spiky haired boy
View attachment 282650

Wrong sword wielder in general.

 

[SKX31]

Do polls really matter in the long-run? Even big name polls, do they cover the vast majority of the Smash fanbase? I also believe there is a difference between the Smash fanbase and the mainstream fanbase, the mainstream fanbase taking up 90% of Smash players (basically, people who play Smash casually and aren't too big into gaming/speculation.)

We do have two numbers - the > 20 million copies Ultimate has sold worldwide, and max online GSP which currently is estimated to be 7,829,929. The latter number is probably not completely accurate, but it's not far fetched that 1 / 3 of Smash buyers also bought the online services.

There probably is a difference between the more hardcore Smash fanbase and the casual fanbase, yes. However, it's difficult to tell since the 20 million is spread worldwide - we're talking dozens of countries. And while most Smash buyers are in the major regions (Japan / Americas / Europe), there are also smaller Smash fanbases in other regions such as China, Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

Polls can help still, certainly - even if polls can fall victim to participation bias etc. they can provide snapshots of the most vocal fanbases and perhaps even raising awareness of the characters to the more mainstream. Didn't multiple characters get included because of the Ballot (as hotly discussed as it was)?